It was recently suggested on the AOL STATS Sabermetrics Board that Tony Gwynn’s dramatic improvement at age 33-37 is largely due to the fact that the seasons during which he played at those ages coincide with the last expansion in 1993. But I believe there is more to it than this.
While I’m sure expansion has had something to do with Gwynn’s improvement, it is an oversimplification to attribute all of it to that one cause. I don’t have league numbers for the past 5 years, but I’d venture to guess that Gwynn’s BA vs league BA is probably better than just about anyone else’s for that same period (heck, only three players — Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, and Pete Browning — have higher career BAs relative to league averages).
As for the assertion that Gwynn’s improvement at such a late stage in his career is unprecedented, let’s play a little game of “Who Am I?” I’ve laid out 5-year stats for two players during the seasons when they were 33-37 years old; I’ve also given 5-year stats for the same two players during the seasons exactly 10 years prior, i.e., when they were 23-27 years old.
Player A Age BA OBP SLG OPS ---------------------------------- 33 358 398 497 895 34 394 454 568 1052 35 368 404 484 888 36 353 400 441 841 37 372 409 547 956 ---------------------------------- Tot 368 411 508 919 ---------------------------------- 23 309 355 372 727 24 351 410 444 854 25 317 364 408 772 26 329 381 467 848 27 370 447 511 958 ---------------------------------- Tot 338 393 448 841 Player B Age BA OBP SLG OPS ---------------------------------- 33 285 343 464 807 34 325 399 489 888 35 320 389 461 860 36 332 402 509 911 37 341 410 518 928 ---------------------------------- Tot 322 401 488 889 ---------------------------------- 23 304 372 469 841 24 267 341 335 676 25 302 366 450 816 26 270 333 410 743 27/28 291 344 395 739 ---------------------------------- Tot 288 348 414 762
Both of our contestants hit significantly better when they were 10 years older. Following are indexes which compare the numbers put up at age 33-37 to those put up at 23-27:
BA OBP SLG OPS
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Player A 109 105 113 109
Player B 112 115 118 117
From this it appears that Player B has improved his performance at age 33-37 vs age 23-27 even more than Player A has. There have been numerous factors involved in both players’ improvement, including health, experience, and yes to an extent expansion.
Now let’s unmask our familiar friends. Player A is of course Tony Gwynn (that 394 BA kind of gave it away); Player B is Paul Molitor. So not only is Tony Gwynn not the only player to improve that dramatically at such an advanced age, he’s not even the player who improved the most at that age.
While I am willing to concede that some of the increased success of both Gwynn and Molitor is due to the factors mentioned above, I believe that in both cases they did in fact become much better at an advanced age.
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