Padres Off-Season: Starting Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Nov 01, 2004

Today kicks off our look at how the Padres might be able to improve themselves for next year. But first, a public service announcement.

Tomorrow is Election Day. As a reformed apathist (didn’t vote between 1988 and 2003; not proud of it, but what’s done is done), I’d like to encourage everyone out there to make their voice heard. Yes, our system is flawed, but it’s what we’ve got and it’s a heckuva lot better than many others.

That said, if you’re still having trouble figuring out how to vote on some issues or in some races, here are a few resources you may find useful:

Don’t worry, this is as political as we’ll get around here. Please educate yourself as much as possible about the issues and races that affect you, and then act accordingly. For years I was fond of claiming not to be a part of the problem because I didn’t participate, but that’s a load of garbage. If you don’t make yourself heard, then someone else will speak on your behalf. I don’t care how you vote (not entirely true, but close enough for our purposes), just make sure to be informed and be a part of the process. It cannot work without each of us.

Okay, back to the Padres and their starting pitchers. Information varies a little depending on the source, but I show the Pads currently committed to a shade over $56M for 11 players. Current thought holds that next year’s budget will be in the neighborhood of $65M. This leaves $9M for 14 players, which means that as usual, Kevin Towers will be sludging for bargains.

Towers also has stated that his main priorities this winter are to re-sign free agent LHP David Wells, and fortify the bullpen and bench. Since we’re talking about starting pitchers today, we’ll focus on Wells. With the Yankees rumored to be interested in bringing back Boomer, and Wells likely to fetch more guaranteed money than he did in 2004, I’m not sure how realistic re-signing him is. I do think that he was a positive force on the field and in the clubhouse, but I don’t know how much sense it makes to potentially blow half your spending money (or more) on a 42-year-old pitcher.

So where does that leave us? We know that Adam Eaton ($3.2M) and Brian Lawrence ($2.25M) will be here. NL ERA champ Jake Peavy is arbitration elgible, so you can bet that he and the Padres are working on a long-term deal as I type this. I have no idea what he’ll end up signing for, but it’s got to be at least in the range of what Eaton and Lawrence are making, right? Wells ended up earning $6M last year. If he signs for the same amount in 2005 and Peavy fetches Eaton money, there’s $9M right and the budget is at $65M. Uh-oh.

At this point there are a few things the Padres can do (or try to do):

  • Get Wells to take a hometown discount
  • Give Peavy a back-loaded contract
  • Forget about Wells and focus on cheaper available talent
  • Move one of Ryan Klesko or Phil Nevin
  • Move Terrence Long and/or Jay Payton
  • Increase budget by a few million bucks

We’ll talk more about the hitters another day, and why none of them is likely to be dealt. As for the pitchers, the obvious first priority is to long-term Peavy. He’s a unique pitching talent, the likes of which San Diegans have rarely (if ever) seen. Pitchers are always a risky investment, and yet they are very necessary. The Padres need to lock up Peavy now, and at least delay his eventual exodus for far greener pastures (sorry, but if he becomes as good as I think he’ll become, the current ownership won’t be willing to pay him what he’s worth in a few years).

Regarding Wells, the big questions are:

  • Can he duplicate his success from a year ago?
  • How serious are the Yankees about pursuing him?
  • How smart an investment is guaranteed money to a 42-year-old pitcher?

My general feeling is that if George Steinbrenner wants Wells back, then the Padres shouldn’t even think about him. I also think that while it’s possible that Wells can still be as effective next year as last, it’s not a particularly prudent bet. I would want to make any contract offer to him heavily dependent on incentives, as last year’s was. And I’m not sure how keen Wells would be on signing such a contract. All of which is a long way of saying, I’d like to see Wells back with the Pads next year, but I don’t know that it’s the best fit.

If not Wells, then who? There are many possibilities.

In-house, guys like Brian Sweeney and Dennis Tankersley are probably as ready as they’re ever going to be. They’re cheap, they’re hungry, and they deserve a shot to show what they can do. The same can be said of Justin Germano, Chris Oxspring, and Tim Stauffer, but all of them could use a little more experience at Triple-A. Andy Ashby, who is eligible for free agency, also would be a good candidate, although counting on him for anything probably isn’t much smarter than counting on anything from Sterling Hitchcock was. Still, Ashby knows how to pitch, he’s had success in a Padre uni, and he isn’t in a position to command a bunch of money.

On the free agent market, there probably isn’t a whole lot that falls in the Padres’ price range. We’ve already looked at Bud Smith among the minor league free agents but he makes Ashby look like a good risk at this point. Among pitchers who have filed for free agency, here are a few who caught my eye:

  • Cory Lidle — Works plenty of innings, throws strikes; Brett Tomko type could be useful at the back end of a rotation for the right price
  • Esteban Loaiza — One spectacular season surrounded by 9 years of mediocrity; potential hometown discount
  • Dennys Reyes — Left-handed, will only be 28 next year, can start or relieve, shouldn’t be too expensive; first came up with the Dodgers at age 20, but still hasn’t gotten a real shot as a starter
  • Glendon Rusch — Left-handed, still relatively young (30), can start or relieve; if the Cubs aren’t interested, the Pads should be
  • Ron Villone — Like Reyes and Rusch, only older; not real exciting, but affordable – the Ford Fiesta of pitchers
  • Paul Wilson — Health concerns appear to be behind him, as does ace potential; unbelievably consistent (92 ERA+ each of the past four seasons)

No Matt Clement? No Brad Radke? Not even a Derek Lowe? Nope. Like it or not, these guys are way out of the budget. Honestly, I’m not even sure that the pitchers I listed are affordable enough for the Padres.

There may be others out there that haven’t filed yet, and of course it’s not a given that one of Klesko or Nevin won’t be moved, but right now these look like the best of the bunch in the Pads’ price range.

What would I do? This is subject to change, but I think I’d give one of the kids (Sweeney or Tankersley) first shot at the #4 spot so they can take a regular turn in the rotation. Then I’d grab whichever of the above pitchers is cheapest and have him duke it out with Bud Smith (assuming he’s got anything left) for the #5 spot. And I would consider anyone who didn’t make the rotation for a bullpen job.

It’s not a sexy plan, but it’s more practical than giving guaranteed money to Wells or breaking the bank for someone like Clement. Oh, and I’d try to work a marketing deal with Ford for their Fiesta. Something along the lines of “Padres and Fiesta: Spanish for ‘Not as exciting as it sounds’.”

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