Just started reading Alan Schwarz’ The Numbers Game. I’m only through the first chapter but already it’s a good read. Among other things, I’ve learned that range factor was first introduced as a defensive metric in the 1870s, ’round about the same time people first started complaining about players caring more about stats and money than about winning. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.

Speaking of Schwarz, he takes a look at different ways of measuring patience at the plate (ESPN, via BTF). Some revealing insights, artfully presented.

And speaking of baseball history, Baseball Musings points us to the Spalding Base Ball Guides, 1889 – 1939 (Library of Congress). You can really lose yourself in these. It’s like traveling back in time.

Back to the present: What more could the Padres have done this off-season?

On the pitching side, assuming they reach a deal with Scott Linebrink, I think the bullpen is about as good as it could be. Maybe the Pads could’ve gone with someone like Billy Koch, Matt Mantei, or Esteban Yan instead of Rudy Seanez, but that’s nitpicking.

As for the rotation, there are a few moves that might have helped:

• Hang onto Dennis Tankersley, see what he can do. Given that they’d pretty well lost faith in him, though, it made sense to move the guy.
• Sign Wade Miller. If they could wait for Adam Eaton, then why not Miller? Power pitcher with big upside.
• Sign Matt Morris. I’m not even a huge Morris fan, but I also assumed he would command around $7-8M a year and never seriously considered him for the Pads. At the price he ended up signing for, he’d have been a mighty good fit. For one thing, he’s cheaper than Darrell May.

I don’t understand how a market that drastically overvalues mediocre pitching (Kris Benson, Jon Lieber, Derek Lowe, Eric Milton, Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, etc.) can see Miller and Morris earn $4M between them next year. I would’ve loved to slot either of these guys into the 2005 rotation.

Catching? Not much happening there. They’ve got three guys capable of playing at the big-league level, which is great because catchers are always getting dinged. And then there’s George Kottaras in the low minors. No change needed.

Infield? The Padres are pretty set in terms of starters. And there weren’t a lot of good backup types on the market this winter. Miguel Cairo, Damion Easley, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Hernandez, and Todd Walker were probably the best of the lot. Can any of them legitimately play shortstop on more than an emergency basis? I dunno. This, incidentally, is another reason Ramon Vazquez should have been worth more to the Padres or in trade. He ended up re-signing with Boston at 1 yr/$700k. How is that not a better deal than, say, Craig Counsell at 2 yrs/$3.1M?

I guess Geoff Blum is okay, but I’d have kept Vazquez. Failing that, I’d have given J.J. Furmaniak or Jake Gautreau a shot. Furmaniak is more versatile defensively and has demonstrated more power in the minor leagues, Gautreau is a more polished all-around hitter. Neither has much left to prove in the minors. Not a huge deal, but I’d have saved the money on Blum and given one of the kids a chance.

Outfield? We figured the Friars would look to move Terrence Long and Jay Payton. I have no real problem with the Long deal because they essentially redistributed their bad contracts, unloading a relative strength (outfield) for a relative weakness (starting pitching). And conceptually I’m fine with moving Payton if it means getting something of value in return, particularly if it helps clear some payroll.

Given the Padres’ biggest areas of need, I’d have tried to move Payton for a starting pitcher and/or a utility infielder. On the Red Sox, I’d have been asking about Byung-Hyun Kim and Kevin Youkilis. These wouldn’t be great fits for the Pads but at least they’d have potential value.

Not to harp on it, but trading Payton for another outfielder didn’t make much sense from the Padres standpoint. Is sitting Xavier Nady behind the likes of Dave Roberts really part of the master plan? You know, the plan that kept Nady out of the Brian Giles deal two years ago?

And if the idea was to try somebody other than Payton or Nady in center field, then why not take a chance on Richard Hidalgo? Heck, even Todd Hollandsworth or Dustan Mohr might’ve been interesting.

Hindsight is 20-20, and you never know what guys are going to sign for until they actually do sign. But in retrospect I think this is what I’d have done:

1. Signed Miller
2. Signed Hidalgo
3. Traded Payton and Vazquez to the Red Sox for Kim
4. Not signed Blum, instead giving Furmaniak a shot at the utility job

You add about $6M to next year’s payroll, you pick up three intriguing guys with upside. What’s not to like?

That’s what I’d have done. How ’bout you?