Recovering from Thanksgiving

We did some work over the holiday weekend, adding an Add to My Yahoo button on the left as well as a “Comments/Trackback” feature courtesy of HaloScan. The latter was on the to-do list I gave myself a couple weeks ago (note: theme song is coming next week). Also added two blogs to Hot Links:

One other change in Hot Links is to the URL for Twins Geek. John Bonnes, whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting on one of his visits to San Diego, hooked up with the Minneapolis Star-Tribune this past season. Apparently that relationship has ended. Kudos to John for attempting to bridge the gap between bloggers and the mainstream media.

Pioneers don’t always get the glory, but they do pave the way for others. The fact that John’s efforts irked some in the newspaper community is a good sign. It means they take him and his work seriously. Eventually the mainstream media will realize that blogs are meant to supplement, not supplant, their product and a workable model will be found. Until then, we’ll all just have to thank John for being the first one out there and for handling the situation with grace and dignity.

Here’s more coverage on John’s adventure in medialand:

When blogs return to the world of mainstream media (and they will), remember the pioneers who made it possible.

Jason Kendall to Oakland

Long rumored to be coming to San Diego, Jason Kendall has been dealt to the Oakland A’s for Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. No disrespect to Kendall, but as a Padre fan I’m very glad to have Ramon Hernandez on the team for a fraction of the cost.

For actual analysis of the trade, check out Elephants in Oakland (in which the Pads’ George Kottaras gets noticed) or Value Over Replacement Blog. And of course Dan gives his take over at BTF.

Free Agents

Thanks to ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker, you can easily follow this winter’s signings. So far, 14 players have signed. Here are the average numbers of the 12 whose contract amount is listed:

Hitters (5)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
2.60  3.01 33.8

            2004 stats
 AB   H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
454 123 28  2 11 33 64 .272 .323 .418

Pitchers (7)
  contract/age
 Yrs $M/yr  Age
1.71  4.09 34.0

              2004 stats
 IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
103 4.16 1.314 9.04 0.85 2.79 6.23

The hitters’ line includes what Vinny Castilla did last year with the Rockies. He is the only hitter who had a slugging percentage over .390 in 2004. Omar Vizquel had the only on base percentage higher than .340. Ages are as of July 1, 2005. Qualitative stats may not match quantitative due to rounding.

The pitchers with the two worst ERAs last year (Kris Benson and Cory Lidle) account for 59% of the total amount doled out so far. Troy Percival and Rudy Seanez were the most effective relievers in 2004, while Glendon Rusch was the best starter. Rusch, Seanez, and Doug Brocail are the cheapest:

   contract/age
   Yrs    $M  Age
DB   1  1.00   38
TP   2 12.00   35
GR   2  4.00   30
RS   1  0.55   36

               2004 stats
      IP  ERA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
DB  52.1 4.13 1.414 9.29 0.34 3.44 7.39
TP  49.2 2.90 1.248 7.79 1.27 3.44 5.98
GR 129.2 3.47 1.234 8.81 0.69 2.29 6.25
RS  46.0 3.33 1.261 7.63 0.59 3.72 9.00

Can you guess which of the above notched 33 saves last year?

Sickels on the AFL

John Sickels scouts the AFL and likes Brad Baker as “a darkhorse candidate for a San Diego bullpen job.” Of the other guys Sickels mentions, we saw Oakland’s Huston Street and Kansas City’s Mark Teahen. Street is a very aggressive right-handed reliever, and Teahen looked close to big-league ready. One game, amateur analysis, usual grains of salt. Dissappointingly, Rickie Weeks didn’t play in the championship game.

Comments: Testing, 1-2-3

Signed up for HaloScan commenting so you can talk to me. Hopefully this thing works. Give it a spin…

Welcome Back, Rudy

Padres have signed Rudy Seanez to a 1-year deal worth $550k (possibly kicking up to $950k based on incentives). This will be the Brawley native’s third stint with the Friars.

In mentioning Seanez as a possible target earlier this month, I said “…he’s basically an older version of [Antonio] Osuna, so why not just re-sign the latter instead?” That was too harsh. When healthy, he is a huge asset to a big-league bullpen. And to answer my own question, Osuna won’t come that cheap.

The downsides to Seanez are that he’s 36 years old and that he’s managed to stay healthy enough to pitch more than 40 games in a single season just once since 1989. On the other hand, he’s coming off a season in which he spun a 129 ERA+ over 46 innings. Here’s how Seanez’ 2004 campaign compares to Osuna’s:

         G   IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA+
Seanez  39 46.0	7.63 0.59 3.72 9.00 129
Osuna   31 36.2 7.85 0.74 2.70 8.84 163

And their respective career numbers:

          G    IP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA+
Seanez  323 333.1 7.88 0.92 4.83 8.99  97
Osuna   407 486.1 7.83 0.78 3.74 9.27 117

Not as young as Osuna, not as good. But cheaper. And cheaper and younger than Doug Brocail.

The way the market is shaping up this off-season, I’m pretty happy with the signing of Seanez. If nothing else, it takes some of the pressure off kids like Blaine Neal, Ryan Bukvich, and Brad Baker. And it shows that the Padres are looking in the right direction. Incentive-based deals to players with upside are precisely the kind Kevin Towers and company should be trying to make.

Travelsnort: McDowell Road

There is a road called McDowell Road that stretches nearly 70 miles from Buckeye, eastward through Phoenix, and finally to Mesa. According to Yahoo! Maps, the drive from one end to the other takes 1.5 hours. But that’s not quite right, because the directions assume that nobody in their right mind would drive that road in its entirety and so we are allowed a tick under 58 miles of freeway travel. Remaining on McDowell probably adds another half an hour to the trip. Just under 70 miles in 2 hours: about the same as it takes to drive around the paved parts of the entire island of Kaua’i.

Along McDowell Road you will find gas stations, fast food joints, drug stores, drive-thru liquor stores (I left my bottle opener at home, can you give me a hand with that?), pawn shops, mortuaries and their suppliers, the occasional infantile driver who insists on honking his horn in the rain because you can’t quite make out whether the light is green, red, or other. The same driver talking on his cell phone and continuing to honk his horn because perhaps it is all he knows how to do. The same driver taking too long at the next light and you resisting the urge to return his kindness because you’ve spent enough time in places where you don’t honk the horn unless you’re ready to back it up.

Phoenix is flat. When lightning strikes, it instantly fills and then retreats from the city, unimpeded by geography. The rain falls with maddening inconsistency so that you spend much of your time recalibrating the windshield wipers instead of noticing that there are no restaurants on McDowell Road, or at least not the part you’re traversing, at that time of night. The few potential options reveal themselves to be dead ends. One is a takeout place that you misidentified on the first pass as being a hopping Italian joint based on its casual proximity to a cabaret. The good news is, the Italian place serves takeout till 2 AM. The bad news is, you are staying in a hotel and have little use for takeout. The cabaret, as far as you know, doesn’t serve food. This is probably a good thing. Still, you feel a little pathetic for caring more about food than naked chicks. But you get over it because you’re hungry.

Another option is a more literal dead end. A taco shop that looked less humble from the road than from the alley full of cops next to the window. You don’t stop. You don’t even slow down.

You’re not that hungry.

Everything else is of the “ketchup as vegetable” variety. You pass those without more than an involuntary glance.

After your impromptu tour of Phoenix in the rain (visiting some neighborhoods more than once), you return to the hotel and ask the night watchman if he knows of any restaurants in the area that are open. Yes, there is an IHOP on Central. It is well past midnight and you’ve been on the road–mostly McDowell Road, but also others–for an embarrassingly long time. You know IHOP. It is your friend. It will take you in when no-one else will. Eggs, pancakes, and a disarmingly perky waitress. You don’t need perky at this hour, or at any hour, but it suits her so you don’t mind. The food tastes good and you are grateful not to be driving along a road you do not yet know stretches 70 miles.

You eat your food, you pay the bill. Okay, your friend pays the bill. You head back to the hotel and, unlike after yesterday’s chili burrito, prepare for a good night’s sleep. As you start to drift off, you remember the baseball game you saw that afternoon and the baseball books you bought at various used bookstores. You think of mortuary supply stores and the jackass who managed to operate his cell phone and car horn at the same time. You think of the flashes of lightning and how they mirror inspiration. You know you’re onto something profound (in the way whoever invented drive-thru liquor stores was), but you can’t quite make the connection. You cannot hold onto your thoughts. The last thing you remember is that someday you will have to write about this.

And maybe someday you will…

Back from Arizona

More later, after I’ve had a chance to recover, but for the moment a few quick notes:

  • Two most impressive players I saw this weekend: Florida’s Jeremy Hermida and Phoenix’s Amare Stoudemire. Hermida has a real nice left-handed stroke. The homer he hit was to dead center, on the first pitch he saw from southpaw Jeff Housman. Baseball America has more coverage of the AFL championship game. As for Stoudemire, I haven’t seriously followed the NBA in years, but dude had a heckuva nice game against the Lakers Friday night. Guys his size aren’t supposed to be that quick. At any rate, it was fun to see some hoops in person after having been away for so long.
  • Hit nine used bookstores in two days, picked up some gems:
    • The Encyclopedia of Minor League Baseball (2nd ed.). Where else can you find out that Coronado fielded a baseball team in 1929, that Jack McKeon led the Omaha Royals to the American Association title in 1969, that Kevin McReynolds and Gerald Davis represented Las Vegas on the 1983 PCL All-Star team, or that Bob Crues once knocked in 254 runs in a single season for the 1948 Amarillo squad in the West Texas-New Mexico League?
    • The Scouting Report: 1990 Includes reports on current Padre broadcasters Mark Grant and Rick Sutcliffe, as well as Oakland GM Billy Beane (“Beane isn’t disciplined at the plate and didn’t draw a single walk in 79 at-bats with the A’s.”)
    • Baseball: The Early Years and Baseball: The Golden Age, both by Dr. Harold Seymour. As I get older, I find myself increasingly interested in the history of our game. I’m looking forward to losing myself in one or both of these books this winter.
    • The Tao of Baseball. I have an interest in Eastern philosophy. Obviously I have an interest in baseball. What could be better?
    • William Zinsser’s On Writing Well and Joseph M. Williams’ Style: Toward Grace and Clarity. Always trying to learn more about writing. The hope is that we will both benefit from these books.
  • Padres picked up another unknown reliever, this one from the Mariners. Randy Williams is 29 years old and throws left-handed.

That’s all for now…

Table Scraps

I’m heading out to Phoenix to catch the AFL championship on Saturday, so this will be real short. Bust out the bullet points…

  • Padres add seven to 40-man roster (Yahoo). Depending on what other moves the Padres make this winter, Brad Baker is a good bet to see material time with the big club in 2005. Tagg Bozied, J.J. Furmaniak, and outfielder Ben Johnson also could get some play. Josh Barfield, Paul McAnulty, and Sean Thompson are further away, although all are highly regarded.
  • I alluded to Old Hoss Radbourn yesterday. Here is a little more info on MLB’s only 60-game winner.
  • Ran across this article (via Across the Seams) about Giants GM Brian Sabean and his penchant for signing older players. That’s all well and good, but the cool part is the graph that shows the Pads in pretty decent territory with regard to age vs win shares. It’s kinda hard to explain. Go look at it.

Like I said, real short. Have a great weekend, and I’ll give a full trip report on Monday (or thereabouts)…

Dusting the Bookshelves: BBBA 1995 Conclusion

Troy Percival to the Tigers at 2 years for $12M? Sorry, that’s just insane. I think at this point if you’re a big-league GM, the name of the game is to wait as long as humanly possible before going after free agents. It’s what the Pads did last year with Jay Payton. And just because Payton had a terrible year doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good strategy. Sit back, watch the big names go for too much money, then come in and cherry pick at the end. Works for me.

Meantime, the sludge merchant is at it again, signing four players, including Damian Jackson, to minor league deals. The Pads also are rumored to be talking to Mark “Better and Cheaper Than Terrence Long” Sweeney.

But enough of that. Back to 1995. As I’ve said before, there’s a lot of great information in the old Big Bad Baseball Annual volumes. The 1995 edition features a detailed look at pitcher workload by Brock J. Hanke (pp. 51-74). Two things stand out in this study:

  1. It examines the question from a historical perspective, asking what rotations and individual workloads looked like in the 1870s, and how/why they have changed in the decades since then.
  2. It uses innings pitched, rather than the trendier individual game pitch counts, as the basis for study.

The historical aspect of Hanke’s article is fascinating. He talks about schedule lengths and rules changes, how Old Hoss Radbourn came to win 60 games in 1884, and the steadily declining threshold of innings a pitcher can throw in a season before falling into the “abuse” category. Hanke also debunks the myth of the 300-inning pitcher, noting that such a workload hasn’t been commonplace in baseball since 1922.

Some of the more pertinent observations from the article:

  • If a pitcher is overworked when he is very young, then that fact will dominate his later career.
  • If a pitcher was not overworked when he was a kid, the main predictive factor in his workload is his innings over a threshold. This threshold has decreased over time, since 1884, in a curve that looks a lot like one arm of a hyperbola…. Right now, the threshold is about 200 innings per season, and going down, though very slowly.
  • When you see a pitcher consistently pitch above the threshold, he’s almost certain to be someone like Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux. Someone who’s just at the very top of the field.
  • Pitching over 200 innings will drag you towards mediocrity. [Ryan Dempster? Joey Hamilton? Kevin Millwood? It may have caught up with Javier Vazquez. Who's next: Roy Oswalt? Ben Sheets?]

All in all, the article is an informative and entertaining read. And I can’t help but wonder whether there is room for more study along these lines when it comes to pitcher workloads. I don’t doubt that pitch counts play a role, but it’s interesting to me that the inning as unit of workload measure has been largely abandoned in recent years.

Finally, one other item from the 1995 BBBA that should be of interest to Padre fans is Don Malcolm’s profile of the club (pp. 329-334). Although he doesn’t talk a lot specifically about the 1994 Padres, he does present a mini-study of teams that have won 65 or fewer games in a season since 1975 and how long it takes them to get back to respectability. Malcolm found that from 1975-84, such teams took an average of 3.81 years to have their next winning record and 5.54 years to win their next division title. From 1985-92, those numbers dropped to 2.55 and 4.3 years, respectively. Based on his findings and on the Padres’ recent track record at the time, Malcolm noted that the club was poised to “make it to .500 in 1995 or 1996 and win a division in 1997 or 1998.”

Bingo.

Fast forward. The Padres, you may recall, won 64 games in 2003. Last year they broke .500. If history is any indicator, the San Diego nine are a good bet to make some serious noise in 2005 or 2006. We’re all hoping it’s sooner rather than later, but even if the Pads can just hold ground next year, 2006 is looking pretty good. But it’s a little early to be settling for “holding ground” next year, don’t you think?