My readers rock. Thanks to y’all, this blog pretty much writes itself some days.

LynchMob points us to this article over at Baseball Prospectus. It praises Kevin Towers for the job he’s done signing good players on the cheap, citing in particular Chris Hammond. But here’s the real attention grabber:

He reminds me of Johan Santana in 2000, who like [Miguel] Asencio was a 21-year-old pitcher who struggled after he was plucked out of A-ball in the Rule 5 draft.

Oh. My.

The above is actually a quote from the Baseball Prospectus 2004. How did the two compare in the minors?

          IP  ERA  H/9 BB/9  K/9 WHIP
Asencio  444 3.22 7.86 4.13 6.58 1.33
Santana  383 4.56 8.70 3.57 9.41 1.36

Okay, first of all, Santana is a freak. His ERA in the big leagues is a full point lower than it was in the minors. Plus all but 49 of his minor league innings came in A-ball. That’s not the usual route to a Cy Young Award.

As for Asencio, he had a much lower ERA than Santana and was tougher to hit. On the downside, Asencio’s command isn’t anywhere near Santana’s. Higher walk rate, much lower strikeout rate. Nice surface numbers in 2001, but he was in a pitcher-friendly league (FSL) and his peripherals were just average. How about the scouting reports?

From John Sickels’ 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook:

He throws an easy 92 MPH, hitting 94 MPH on occasion, with more velocity possible as he fills out. His changeup is very good considering his experience level, and he made strides with the curve last year… He knows how to change speeds, and I’m optimistic about his long-term prospects, though I want to see better ratios before going overboard with the grade.

Sickels gave Asencio a grade of B-minus, the same as he gave that year for Padre farmhands Tagg Bozied, Eric Cyr, Ben Howard, and Ramon Vazquez.

From Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2002:

He has two pitches that are ready for [the major-league] level: a 90-94 mph fastball that chews up bats and the best changeup in the system. Ascencio occasionally will flash a plus curveball but is far from doing so on a consistent basis.

BA rated him the #6 prospect in the Royals system, behind Roscoe Crosby and ahead of Ken Harvey. The #6 prospect for the Pads that year was the aforementioned Howard.

Well, Ben Howard is considerably less exciting than Johan Santana. Still, the reports read like those of a guy who if healthy belongs in the big leagues.

Bottom line: The Padres gave up nothing to get Asencio, and he could end up being useful. That’s a gamble you take every time.