first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-5, 5.11 ERA) vs Doug Davis (6-5, 3.89 ERA)
The Padres finish the month of May with a 22-6 record and are 33-19 overall. Everyone is contributing. Somebody gets hurt? Not a problem. Somebody goes into a slump? Not a problem. This is a deep, talented, and now confident ball club. Amazingly, they’re still flying below most folks’ radar, and you know what? That also is not a problem. Stay focused on the Yankees or whatever, just let the Pads play ball. Recognition is nice, but overrated; winning is better.
How good are things going for the Friars right now? Khalil Greene strikes out but ends up on second base thanks to a wild pitch and a throwing error by the catcher. Phil Nevin knocks his 1000th career hit, and it’s a triple. He now has six triples in over 3600 at-bats spanning parts of 11 seasons; by comparison, the Mets’ Jose Reyes has seven triples in 215 at-bats this year alone.
Lawrence is coming off a complete game victory at San Francisco. He returns to Petco, where his numbers are much better than on the road. In four starts at home this year, Lawrence is averaging over 7 innings per start. His ERA is 2.51, and he’s held the opposition to a tidy .213/.248/.269 line.
AB BA OBP SLG
Lawrence vs current Brewers 73 .205 .301 .301
Davis vs current Padres 71 .282 .333 .352
Small sample for both guys, so I won’t comment further. I’ll be out at the park tonight; talk amongst yourselves, and let’s keep the ball rolling. Did I mention that winning is fun?
Other Stuff
- Can’t get enough of the Surf Dawgs? Gaslamp Ball and Catfish Stew have checked ‘em out as well and give their thoughts.
- A bunch of folks are conducting a mock draft over at John Sickels’ MinorLeagueBall.com. Peter from San Diego Spotlight is helping out with the Padres draft.
- Don’t forget about the Baseball Prospectus Pizza Feed @ Petco Park. Game is scheduled for Friday, June 24, against Seattle. Pads GM Kevin Towers will be speaking. The registration deadline is today, so better get on it.
Update: Apparently Nevin has fewer triples in his career than Reyes had *just in May*:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/009700.php
I took a quick look at BP’s adjusted standings, thinking the Padres would have more than expected wins on the Pythagorean model, but make up some of that on the strength of schedule. My thinking is the Pads have won a lot of close games but have often done it against tough teams (St. Louis, Atlanta, Florida, Arizona). That does not really hold up, and the adjustments show the Padres having 2.8 to 4.6 more wins than expected.
Most of the division leaders do (STL, White Sox, Braves, Baltimore). What is interesting, is that the rest of the West gets worse as well, especially Arizona, that the Padres would have a bigger lead.
But, all adjustments aside, this has been, and hopefully will continue to be, a wonderful run.
Adjusted standings link:
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/statistics/standings.php
BTW, Padres “Magic Number” is 107
I’ve written a script which pulls the standings off the web and calculates each team’s “Magic Number” (relative to making the playoffs, not just winning the division), and their corresponding number to Elimination from the playoff race … with the result being a new creation … the MAGIC PACE … the Padres’ Magic Pace right now is -4, which means they are 4 games ahead of pace to clinch a playoff spot before the season ends.
I’ll take the liberty of posting a report here … no telling how it will look in this comment box …
MAGIC PACE Summary as of Wed Jun 1 11:25:54 PDT 2005
AL East W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. BALTIMORE 31 20 111 -3 109 BOSTON
2. BOSTON 28 23 111 2 111 MINNESOTA
3. TORONTO 28 24 110 3 110 MINNESOTA
4. NY YANKEES 27 24 111 3 110 MINNESOTA
5. TAMPA BAY 19 34 109 13 100 MINNESOTA
AL Central W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. CHI WHITE SOX 35 17 110 -5 106 LA ANGELS
2. MINNESOTA 29 21 112 -1 112 LA ANGELS
3. CLEVELAND 25 25 112 4 109 MINNESOTA
4. DETROIT 23 26 113 5 108 MINNESOTA
5. KANSAS CITY 14 37 111 16 97 MINNESOTA
AL West W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. TEXAS 30 20 112 -2 111 LA ANGELS
2. LA ANGELS 30 22 110 1 112 MINNESOTA
3. SEATTLE 21 30 111 9 104 MINNESOTA
4. OAKLAND 19 32 111 11 102 MINNESOTA
NL East W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. FLORIDA 27 22 113 -1 113 ATLANTA
2. ATLANTA 28 23 111 1 113 FLORIDA
3. WASHINGTON 27 25 110 3 111 FLORIDA
4. NY METS 26 26 110 4 110 FLORIDA
5. PHILADELPHIA 25 27 110 5 109 FLORIDA
NL Central W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. ST LOUIS 33 18 111 -6 106 CHICAGO CUBS
2. CHICAGO CUBS 26 24 112 2 109 ARIZONA
3. MILWAUKEE 24 27 111 5 106 ARIZONA
4. PITTSBURGH 23 27 112 5 106 ARIZONA
5. CINCINNATI 21 31 110 9 102 ARIZONA
6. HOUSTON 19 32 111 10 101 ARIZONA
NL West W L GR Pace MN Elim MNOpp
1. SAN DIEGO 33 19 110 -4 107 ATLANTA
2. ARIZONA 30 22 110 -1 110 ATLANTA
3. LA DODGERS 26 25 111 3 108 ARIZONA
4. SAN FRANCISCO 23 27 112 5 106 ARIZONA
5. COLORADO 15 35 112 13 98 ARIZONA
NOTES: GR = Games Remaining (Season is 31% done (3330 GR / 4860 scheduled)) Pace = Magic Number – Games Remaining – 1
– = ahead of pace to clinch playoff spot before season ends
0 = on pace to tie for a playoff spot
+ = behind pace needed to clinch playoff spot before season ends MN = Magic Number (combo of your wins + MNOpp losses needed to make playoffs) Elim = Elimination # (combo of your losses + MNOpp wins needed to be elimin’d) MNOpp = Magic Number Opponent = Magic Number is relative to this team
If “IN” the playoffs, this is team closest to knocking you out
If “OUT” of the playoffs, this is team you are closest to catching
Lawrence not looking good tonight. Single, Single, Sac Fly (would have been a HR elsewhere), homer. 3-0 Brew Crew and Bochy has thrown out the “Lefties Eat Us Alive” lineup.
I really hate this lineup. I only like it when Hyzdu was playing
BLaw looks horrible. 9 batters in the 1st inning is never good.
BLaw is just getting crushed. So much for not having to worry about adding another starter for the stretch run. Lawrence/May just don’t appear to be consistent enough so far.
If BLaw is getting rocked this bad in SD, I hate to see what happens on the road. I guess we need to look for another starter if this keeps up.
At least AZ lost
well, being on the East Coast and we’re getting hammered, Im off to bed. Have a good one all.
on the east coast and still watching…
but why are we watching, it keeps getting worse. Lawrence hasn’t fooled anyone. Maybe he saw tonight’s lineup and figured it was all up to him. He is really beginning to worry me since his entire game is built on touch. If he’s not gripping the ball well, it’s light’s out.
Lawrence goes through stretches like this, and then run off a month of dominance. By the end of the year he’ll probably end up with an ERA in the low 4′s, once again.
I can only hope so.
East coast in the house!
yeah East Coast!
One disturbing bit of news today. The NL All-Star voting is out. No Padres are in the top five at any infield position or at catcher. And none of them are in the top 10 in the outfield positions. Nomar, Piazza and Griffey lead at their positions.
They’re making it exciting.
C’mon Ryno! 2-1 count.
Brewer bullpen is active, now. 3-1 count. KG on deck.
Bases loaded with one away in the bottom of the ninth. Khalil Greene steps to the plate as the potential winning run and here comes Yost.
Julio Santana will get the call. Matty V says, “It’s getting good.” Indeed.
First pitch hacking. Popped out to the second baseman. What the hell was Khalil Greene thinking?
It all comes down to Blummer, now. He’s 3-4 with a double tonight.
Brian Giles is on deck should Blum be able to keep the inning going.
A warning tracker… It looked like it was four runs.
I’m told you can’t win them all. It would have been nice to get this one, though. Padres win the series. 0-1 in June, though.
12 feet to the left of Jenkins and Blummer’s shot lands in the short porch for the walk off GS
A friend of mine (an Astros’ fan, is that OK?
went to the game last night … and sent me these comments in an email this morning … fyi.
–
wow, what a game tonight! as we started the bottom of the ninth, i told my cousin, “this guy throw hard but he’s erratic. he can be had.” a double, single, single and a walk later, the pads had a run in with the bags loaded and the winning run at the plate with one out. so they yanked the closer and brought in a new guy. But khalil looked pathetic all night, and blew it again with a horrible at bat. that brought up my old buddy geoff blum.
i told my cousin, “two years ago, blum came up in the bottom of the ninth for the ‘stros with the bags loaded, batting left handed, and put one in the right field bleachers to win the game.” and blum had looked awesome today, blasting two singles and a double. he got a pitch to hit and crushed it to right field.
it looked and sounded like it was outtahere, but it was just short. but it sure was exciting. blum made two horrible baserunning blunders earlier, and he’s a bad on d. but he sure can rake. that’s six straight multihit games.