In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Cardinals (7 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 07, 2005 (21) Comments

first pitch: 11:15 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (3-1, 3.48 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (4-1, 3.86 ERA)
game preview: CBS SportsLine

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Eaton vs current Cardinals   97 .247 .362 .546

Carpenter vs current Padres  84 .226 .261 .298

Anybody notice the Pads have won five straight? Sure, those first three were at home against the Rockies. But now they’ve won the first two at Busch Stadium (where the Friars hadn’t won since 2001), against a Cardinals team that has the NL’s best record.

They battled in both games, including Friday night’s victory where starter Darrell May couldn’t get out of the fourth inning. The winning rally started when pinch-hitter Xavier Nady was hit on the back foot by a 1-2 pitch with two outs. When’s the last time the Friars turned something like that into three runs?

Brian Giles is out of his slump. The bullpen is getting it done. Khalil Greene is due back Monday. Things are looking up, my friends.

I’m out this morning, so chat away. And remember: Chin Waggers at Danky’s in Carlsbad tonight. The rockin’ starts at 7 p.m. Swing by and say hey. :-)

400 Saves

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2005 (Comments Off) Comments

Trevor Hoffman gets So Taguchi on a called third strike to seal the Pads 6-5 victory at St. Louis Friday night. Hoffman becomes the third player in MLB history to record 400 saves, joining Lee Smith and John Franco. All but two of Hoffman’s saves have come as a member of the San Diego Padres.

Well done, Mr. Hoffman. Hells bells, indeed!

ERA Leaders and Cy Young Award Votes

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2005 (2) Comments

The Baseball Crank has two articles showing DIPS ERA leaders from the 2004 All-Star Break through Tuesday.

Some names of interest to Padre fans:


Pitcher          IP   DIPS ERA
Jake Peavy      139     3.00
Ben Sheets      141     3.21
Jason Schmidt   141.1   3.36
David Wells     129     4.20
Brian Lawrence  120     4.24
Adam Eaton      122     4.26

Woody Williams  121.2   4.27
Brett Tomko     132.2   4.46
Matt Clement     99.2   4.56
Oliver Perez    130.1   4.56
Darrell May      95.2   5.42

Peavy ranks sixth overall, which leads TBC to note, “Pretty heady company there for Peavy and Burnett.” This got me thinking (don’t ask, it’s just the way my mind works): What kind of company is Peavy keeping in terms of leading the league in ERA but not receiving any Cy Young Award votes?

It’s not as select as you might expect. Since they started giving two awards (one for each league) in 1967, it’s happened 20 times. That’s out of 78 possible award-years. So about a quarter of the time, the league ERA leader hasn’t received a single vote.

Before Peavy did it in 2004, the last time it had happened was in 1996, when Juan Guzman led the AL with a 2.93 ERA. Only two pitchers in history have had a higher ERA+ and failed to register a single Cy Young Award vote. Here is the entire list, in descending ERA+ order:

Pitcher          Year  Tm  ERA ERA+
Luis Tiant       1968 Cle 1.60 184
Juan Guzman      1996 Tor 2.93 181
Phil Niekro      1967 Atl 1.87 177
Jake Peavy       2004  SD 2.27 177
Juan Marichal    1969  SF 2.10 166
Danny Darwin     1990 Hou 2.21 168

Rick Honeycutt   1983 Tex 2.42 167
Allan Anderson   1988 Min 2.45 167
Steve Ontiveros  1994 Oak 2.65 167
Joe Magrane      1988 StL 2.18 160
Bill Swift       1992  SF 2.08 159
Dick Bosman      1969 Was 2.19 159

Don Sutton       1980  LA 2.20 159
Rudy May         1980 NYA 2.46 159
Atlee Hammaker   1983  SF 2.25 157
Sammy Stewart    1981 Bal 2.32 156
Craig Swan       1978 NYN 2.43 144
Alejandro Pena   1984  LA 2.48 142

John Denny       1976 StL 2.52 140
Diego Segui      1970 Oak 2.56 138

Peavy also is the only active big-league pitcher to have led his league in ERA and not received a single Cy Young Award vote.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Cardinals (6 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2005 (74) Comments

first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Darrell May (0-0, 4.26 ERA) vs Jeff Suppan (2-3, 3.23 ERA)

The preseason favorite to win the #5 spot in the rotation makes his first start as a Padre. Unfortunately, he’ll be making it against a team full of guys who beat him like a rug. If May can step up and keep the game close, we could see Trevor Hoffman get a shot at save #400.

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
May vs current Cardinals   41 .366 .381 .732
Suppan vs current Padres  134 .321 .396 .500

That’s a really small sample, but damn. Albert Pujols is hitting .111/.111/.222 against May in 9 at-bats. Everyone else is hitting the tar out of him. Nine extra base hits in 42 plate appearances? Ouch.

For the Padres, two of the guys doing the most damage (Geoff Blum, Eric Young) are hurt. Among the healthy, Brian Giles (.353/.429/.706 in 17 AB) and Robert Fick (.231/.417/.500 in 26 AB) have had their share of success against Suppan. In more limited duty, Mark Loretta (.667/.667/1.000 in 9 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.429/.556/.571 in 7 AB) have also done well.

Notable Quotes from This Week’s In-Game Discussions

Still not sure you should be hanging out with us during the game? Your call, but here’s a little of what you’ve been missing…

Eaton should consider not giving up doubles to the hitter leading off each inning.

–Richard, 2 May 2005

Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!!Dong!!! Tie ballgame. [Ed. note: This has quickly supplanted "boom goes the dynamite" as my favorite home run call]

–Lance, 3 May 2005

This is why I dislike the whole bullpen hierarchy system. Now that the Linebrink-Otsuka setup tandem has been memorialized and immortalized, you can’t shift their roles without a big fuss about demotion or losing confidence. Reliever performance is so volatile, you should be able to just play the hot hand with them.

–Eric, 4 May 2005

Roll out the bad poetry, we have a new curse on our hands — the CURSE OF ANNA KOURNIKOVA! Apparently, Brian Giles hasn’t had a hit since he caught the first pitch from her. [Ed. note: Only the threat of bad poetry was needed; Giles snapped out in a big way on Thursday night]

–Brian G., 5 May 2005

Richard also kept a running tally of expected runs during Tuesday night’s game against the Rockies. Fascinating stuff. And of course LynchMob provided his usual excellent dose of updates from the farm.

Fun with Numbers

  • Dave Roberts has 15 hits so far this year; of those, 7 are for extra bases. His ISO is .176.
  • Including his monster game Thursday night against the Cards, Giles’ ISO also is .176. He is hitting .120/.290/.200 at home and .288/.400/.558 on the road, in a roughly equivalent number of trips to the plate.
  • I love the bullpen, but should Dennys Reyes and Scott Linebrink have more walks (27) than Jake Peavy and Woody Williams (22) in fewer than half the innings?

Go get ‘em, boys!

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Cardinals (5 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 05, 2005 (74) Comments

first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (2-3, 5.46 ERA) vs Matt Morris (2-0, 2.12 ERA)
game preview: Padres.com

                                AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Lawrence vs current Cardinals  102 .353 .450 .627
Morris vs current Padres       154 .266 .323 .409

Mark Grudzielanek (.158/.158/.158 in 19 AB) and Albert Pujols (.231/.375/.308 in 13 AB) haven’t done much against Lawrence. There are some gawdy numbers among the rest. Geez, I can’t even type that high.

Brian Giles (.381/.458/.619 in 21 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.364/.417/.591 in 22 AB) have had success against Morris. The rest of the lineup, not so much.

We’ll be out “celebrating” my birthday, so I won’t be able to hang with y’all for this one. Ken Griffey Jr. is the first guy I remember playing in the big leagues who was younger than me. How ’bout the rest of you?

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2005 (7) Comments

Here’s what’s been piling up on the old plate of late (some of these have been sitting out there a while; my apologies)…

  • Padres’ rotation in flux (Padres.com). Woody Williams to the DL with a strained oblique, Randy Williams up from Portland to take his spot on the roster, Darrell May in from the mopup role to take Woody’s place in the rotation.
  • Greene back on familiar ground (NC Times). Khalil Greene is rehabbing at Elsinore and expected to rejoin the big club Monday in Cincy. In two games so far with the Storm, Greene has two singles in five at-bats; he’s also drawn a walk and been hit by a pitch.
  • Rocking the Rox, Moneyball (So) Misunderstood (davidlizerblog). David gives a brief recap of the recently completed sweep of the Rox. He also offers an interesting take on something I wrote in Tuesday’s In-Game Discussion. I hadn’t considered comparing the relatively lousy but relatively inexpensive Padres with the really lousy but really expensive Yankees to somehow make us feel better about the Pads, but I can see how it could be interpreted that way. (Language is a funny thing.) Anyway, the point is that money doesn’t guarantee success and it sucks to be the Yankees right now.

    David observes another good point, which is that there seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about Moneyball. But that’s a whole other can of worms. :-)

  • What I’ve learned after watching the Padres for one month (Gaslamp Ball). Dex’s take on April in Padreland. Gotta love analysis that includes the sentence “Big League Hair does not constitute consistent production.”
  • April Wrapup (Friar Faithful). And Richard chimes in with his thoughts.
  • NL West Graphs (Hardball Times). I haven’t really studied this one, but it looks cool.
  • MLB.com introduces MLBlogs. I’m drawing a blank. Looking for something clever to say (or even stupid; it’s such a fine line), but I’ve got nada.

Finally, my band Chin Waggers is playing at Danky’s in Carlsbad this Saturday night (May 7), from 7 to 10:30 p.m. They have good grub and a giant screen TV (I was hoping to lure you with a Padres game, but wouldn’t you know – they play during the day; so I dunno, maybe the Angels/Indians game will be on). Swing by if you’re in the area…

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Rockies (4 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2005 (182) Comments

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 1.77 ERA) vs Jason Jennings (1-3, 4.55 ERA)
game previews: CBS SportsLine

Afternoon start, no television. Peavy tries to nail down the sweep against the Rox.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG

Peavy vs current Rockies     43 .256 .289 .419
Jennings vs current Padres  222 .324 .396 .509

Todd Helton (.353/.421/.647 in 17 AB) is the only batter who’s had an appreciable number of plate appearances against Peavy. He’s also had the most success.

Among health Padres regulars, Ryan Klesko (.375/.487/.813 in 32 AB), Brian Giles (.360/.515/.760 in 25 AB), and Sean Burroughs (.448/.500/.517 in 29 AB) are doing the damage against Jennings. Over the past three years, Jennings has allowed lefties to hit .322/.405/.506 against him.

Notes on Tuesday Night’s Game and Other Stuff

Isn’t it good to have the alleged “curse” removed from the fifth starter? What a load of rubbish that was. Tim Redding looked very good, and he’s a heckuva lot cheaper than Kevin Brown:

         IP W-L ERA    $M
Redding  24 0-4 6.00   .75
Brown    24 0-4 8.25 15.7

Speaking of the Yankees, how’d you like to have to explain their performance right about now?

          W  L  GB    $M
Padres   13 14 4.5  62.9
Yankees  11 16 6.5 205.9

Roster moves: Robert Fick and Damian Jackson are now with the club, replacing Geoff Blum (DL) and Adam Hyzdu (designated for assignment). Jackson, taking the spot of Monday night’s hero Hyzdu, provided the game-winning hit Tuesday.

And a couple bullet points to finish:

  • I’m very happy to see that Peter Friberg has joined Rich at San Diego Spotlight. Welcome, Peter, to MVN! Good to have you on our side. :-) Anyway, be sure to stop on over and say hey.
  • Big thanks to all who participate in our In-Game Discussions: Richard, LynchMob, Lance, Eric, Nick, and others I’m forgetting (sorry!). A lot of good insight gets shared there, and I encourage everyone to participate or at least rummage through the comments after the fact.

Okay, enough of my babbling. Let’s get a sweep today.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Rockies (3 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 03, 2005 (193) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Redding (0-4, 7.94 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (1-2, 6.85 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine

Damian Jackson, recalled to replace last night’s hero Adam Hyzdu, who has been DFA’d, gets the start at shortstop. Call it the Ducksnorts curse. I’ll try not to put Jake Peavy‘s name in a headline anytime soon.

Speaking of curses, I can deny it no more. And so I appeal to the man himself:

A Humble Request to the Grand Wizard Valdezmort to Remove His Wicked Curse

Izzy, Izzy – oh how we long for thee;
Izzy, Izzy – oh what mystery lies beneath your curse?
Who foresaw that all who followed you would be worse?
Izzy, is he – Valdes or Valdez?
Who knew the loss of mediocrity
Would lead to such great travesty?

We have suffered through Sterling, Justin, Tank, and now Redding;
Where in Hades is our fifth starter heading?
Come what May, you’ve made us pay
In ways we’re all regretting.

Izzy, Izzy – who would have guessed
That among all others you were the best,
Blessed as you were with run support
And a curious reluctance to pitch inside?

From this truth we cannot hide:
Despite an ERA well over five,
The Padres’ bats did come alive
When each fifth day you toed the slab
And saved us from our drab existence,
Rewarding us with your persistence
At winning games despite our insistence
That it was all just smoke and mirrors.

Izzy, Izzy – with you we tripped the light craptastic,
But since you left, we’ve gone quite spastic;
So now we implore thee, in truly awful verse,
Please remove your wicked curse
That has our fifth starter in reverse.

We beg of thee, please set us free
And we shall speak no further ill of you
Than if you’d pitched like Vida Blue.

Who Do? Hyzdu!

by Geoff Young on May 03, 2005 (11) Comments

Sorry ’bout that headline, but it was better than the alternatives. Trust me.

So the Pads, with their bizarre new lineup and without their skipper for most of the night, beat the Rockies, 5-4, at Petco Monday night. Adam Hyzdu, with his bases-clearing double in the second, was the hero. A few observations from the game:

  • The pace, especially for the first three innings, was painfully slow. From my vantage point, I couldn’t tell whether the plate umpire was squeezing or Adam Eaton and Jeff Francis were just missing. Whatever the case, a lot of pitches were thrown.
  • I also couldn’t tell whether Phil Nevin pulled his foot off the bag on that play that would’ve ended the second inning. Judging from the reaction of folks who had monitors in front of them and manager Bruce Bochy, who got tossed, I’m assuming the umpire blew the call. My question to those who caught the game on television is this: Did Nevin stretch for the ball too early? It looked like he might have.
  • One more question: What was the deal with that delay to start the bottom of the fifth?
  • I have to admit, I was skeptical about the idea of sticking Miguel Ojeda in left, but you know what? He did a decent job out there. He made a nice play on the ball Todd Helton hit in the fifth; I thought if Jesse Garcia had handled the cutoff cleanly, they had a legitimate shot at nailing Clint Barmes at the plate.
  • Speaking of Barmes, is it me, or does he remind anyone of Mark Loretta? Dude has a real compact swing. He also inexplicably tried (and failed) to steal third with one out in the seventh with Brad Hawpe at the plate. Much appreciated.
  • Xavier Nady: Single and three walks in four plate appearances. Just what he needed.
    Xavier Nady waits for the pitch
  • I thought the ball Ramon Hernandez hit in the fifth was headed into the seats for a two-run homer. I also thought the ball Matt Holliday hit off Akinori Otsuka to start the eighth was going yard to tie the game.
  • Garcia is a fine shortstop, but he cannot hit big-league pitching.
  • Most trying moment of the game: Crowd is on its feet in the bottom of the ninth. Dustan Mohr hits a ground ball to Loretta to end the game. But wait, Loretta bobbles the ball. Trevor Hoffman falls behind Hawpe, 3-0, before getting him to ground to Nevin to seal the deal. Collective sigh. Hoffman, incidentally, looked outstanding again.
  • Stupid photo of the night: Sean Burroughs vs Hot Dog Vendor

    Sean Burroughs, moments before being struck in the side of the head by an errant hot dog

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Rockies (2 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 02, 2005 (93) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (2-1, 2.93 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (1-0, 4.37 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine | SI | Padres.com

And in come the Rockies. SI shows the Padres starting an outfield of Miguel Ojeda in LF, Adam Hyzdu in CF, and Xavier Nady in RF. Hyzdu is leading off. If this is a joke, it’s not funny; if it isn’t a joke, it’s even less funny.

                            AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Eaton vs current Rockies   136 .301 .361 .485

Francis vs current Padres   29 .276 .364 .586

Todd Helton (.333/.453/.595 in 42 AB) is the killer; big shock there. Todd Greene (.400/.455/.600 in 10 AB) and Clint Barmes (.500/.500/1.000 in 6 AB) also have had success in more limited duty.

Francis is making just his 12th big-league start. None of the current Padres has more than six at-bats against him. The injured Khalil Greene has the only two homers. Inexplicably, Francis has been much more effective at Coors (2.55 ERA) than away from it (6.49 ERA) throughout his brief career.

I’ll be at Petco tonight, in some pretty sweet seats courtesy of my wife’s company. Pix tomorrow or shortly thereafter. Gotta run…