In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Marlins (14 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 14, 2005 (42) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 2.76 ERA) vs Al Leiter (1-3, 6.67)
previews: ESPN | CBS | SI | Padres.com

The Padres got the homestand off to a good start, beating the Marlins 3-2 behind Adam Eaton, who needed just 99 pitches to work 7 strong innings. After averaging 17.6 pitches per inning over his first seven starts, a more efficient Eaton took charge early and outlasted Florida’s Josh Beckett. Rich over at San Diego Spotlight gives his thoughts on the game.

And for Saturday’s matchup:

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Marlins   50 .300 .340 .460
Leiter vs current Padres  175 .246 .318 .366

Not many at-bats against Peavy. The most trouble has come at the hands of Mike Lowell: one single, two homers, and one walk in five trips to the plate. For the Padres, Phil Nevin (.440/.545/.720 in 25 AB) has had great success against Leiter. Nobody else is doing much.

The U-T notes that Peavy has allowed 11 earned runs over his past three starts. Impressively, not since July 2003 had Peavy allowed as many as 10 earned runs over a three-start period. Right-handers are hitting just .184/.235/.289 against Peavy this year. Lefties are hitting .265/.297/.480, with 56% of hits going for extra bases.

Checkpoint: Heart of the Order, Home/Road Splits, Pythagoras

by Geoff Young on May 14, 2005 (1) Comments

In the April 21 installment, Runs Would Be Nice, we touched on the struggles of the middle of the order as well as the issue of how well the Pads are adapting to Petco Park in their second season at the new digs. I thought it might be good to check in on those and see if there’s been any change.

Heart of the Order

            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H BB/SO AB/HR
thru 4/20  163 34  9  1  7 30 31 .209 .327 .405  .153 .196 .500  .968  23.3
thru 5/13  383 99 24  2 20 57 71 .258 .351 .488  .129 .230 .465  .770  19.2

Good news: They are making better contact and hitting the ball out of the park more often. Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko have caught fire and are re-establishing themselves as legitimate threats. The one concern with Klesko is that he appears to have adopted something of an “all or none” philosophy in May, fanning 13 times against just 3 walks in 46 trips to the plate. Still, he’s hitting over .300 and he has 6 bombs, so it’s hard to complain.

Bad news: They aren’t walking as much as they were; Phil Nevin (.250/.273/.436), despite leading the team in RBI, isn’t really getting it done. The first I can live with: The goal isn’t to draw walks, it’s to score runs. The second is a little more troubling because Nevin is the most expensive guy on the team and has a no-trade clause. Meanwhile, Xavier Nady sits and waits his turn.

Turning now to the next topic…

Home/Road Splits: Can They Turn This to Their Advantage?

At Petco

thru 4/20
            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     236 59 10  4  3 35 33 .250 .349 .364 .114 .288  78.7
Opponents  249 54  7  2  2 24 51 .217 .292 .285 .068 .204 124.5

thru 5/13
            AB   H 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     526 140 22  5 11 64  97 .266 .348 .390 .124 .271 47.8
Opponents  538 110 25  6  9 53 121 .204 .279 .323 .119 .364 59.8

The Friars are outscoring their opponents, 63-43. But notice how the slugging numbers have really jumped for the opposition. They’re still not hitting the ball very often, but when they are, they’re hitting it pretty hard. Since we last checked, Padres opponents have seen more than half their hits go for extra bases (29 XB / 56 H = .518). Although they’ve hit just .194 during that time, their ISO is .163. For comparison, the Rockies’ ISO at Coors this year is .166.

Bottom line? Everyone is starting to hit the ball with more authority at Petco as the season progresses, but so far the opposition has made more gains than the home team.

Away from Petco

thru 4/20
            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     270 62 13  0 10 35 55 .230 .318 .389 .159 .371  27.0
Opponents  276 84 17  1 12 20 58 .304 .351 .504 .200 .357  23.0

thru 5/13
            AB   H 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     742 188 39  2 28 83 134 .253 .333 .425 .172 .367  26.5
Opponents  734 214 53  5 25 71 136 .292 .357 .480 .178 .388  29.4

The Pads have been outscored by their opponents, 120-100. The 20-run positive run differential at Petco is reversed on the road. The good news is, the pitchers and hitters appear to have made an adjustment. Take a look at the differences between the Pads and their opponents from our first checkpoint and this one:

              BA   OBP   SLG   ISO  XB/H AB/HR
thru 4/20  -.074 -.033 -.115 -.041  .014  -4.0
thru 5/13  -.039 -.024 -.055 -.006 -.021   2.9

For each line, I subtracted the opposition’s value from the Padres’ value. For AB/HR, since the smaller number is better, I reversed the operation. The point is, the Pads are closing the gap; they’re playing better on the road than they were at the beginning of the season. But the 5-2 road trip they just completed told you that already, right?

Once again, the condensed version:

thru 4/20
           Petco OPS  Non-Petco OPS
Padres        713          707
Opponents     578          855
Difference    135         -148

thru 5/13
           Petco OPS  Non-Petco OPS
Padres        738          757
Opponents     603          837
Difference    135          -80

That’s encouraging. Finally, we take a look at the Padres pitching home/road splits:

thru 4/20
        IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Home  67.0 1.88  7.25 0.27 3.22 6.85
Road  67.2 5.59 11.17 1.60 2.66 7.71

thru 5/13
         IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Home  148.0 2.31  6.69 0.55 3.22 7.36
Road  182.2 5.38 10.56 1.23 3.50 6.71

Interesting. Fewer hits, but more runs, homers, strikeouts at Petco than last time we looked. More walks, but fewer hits, runs, homers, and strikeouts on the road. Not sure how comfortable I am with that shrinking strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road, especially with Coors Field still in the division. With a quarter of their road games in the books, the Pads have an ERA over 5.00. And the discrepancy between home and road performance is still pretty huge. Of course, Tim Redding‘s 6 homers in 12 2/3 innings doesn’t help, but still.

Pythagoras

Jay pointed out in the comments for Friday’s In-Game Discussion (where was everyone Friday? I was sick, what’s your excuse?) that the Padres are 10-3 in 1-run games this year. He also expressed concern, and rightly so, that much of the Pads’ early-season success is based on what could be a flukish record in close games.

There are a couple other ways to look at this. One is that the Pads have a fantastic bullpen. Another is that with a little better execution, the Padres would be winning a lot of games by more than just the eventual margin of victory. To use Friday as an example, consider the seventh inning:

Giles: BB
Hernandez: 2B, RBI
Burroughs: FC, 1-5; Hernandez out at third
Greene: K
Sweeney: 2B, Burroughs to third
Roberts: BB
Loretta: 1B, Burroughs scores, Sweeney out at home

I’m not knocking two runs, especially against a guy like Josh Beckett, but the Padres had a chance to break this one wide open. Thanks to Sweeney’s double and Loretta’s single, Burroughs’ inability to move Hernandez over didn’t cost anything. It’s still horrible execution and nothing you ever want to see, but it didn’t hurt; Burroughs scored anyway. But how does Sweeney get nailed at the plate with Ryan Klesko waiting on deck? This isn’t second guessing, it’s knowing the situation. Klesko up with runners on the corners and two outs? I’ll take my chances there every time (as it happens, Klesko led off the eighth with a single; that’s not the point – that would be second guessing based on what actually occurred as opposed to examining the process that led to the decision to send Sweeney).

Anyway, I don’t mean to dwell on one play. It’s anectodal, but it’s indicative of missed opportunities by the Padres early in the season. These are not the types of mistakes you like to see your team make, no matter how much talent they may have. And bringing it back full circle, to the point about flukish perfomance and expectations vs reality, consider this: On April 24, the Padres were 8-11 but had outscored the opposition, 85-82. The local media was kind of freaking out after a sweep at Arizona. Since that time, the Pads are 12-5 but they’ve been outscored by the opposition, 81-78. I’ll put that in a chart because it’s quite remarkable:


             W  L  RS  RA PyW PyL
thru 4/24    8 11  85  82  10   9
since 4/24  12  5  78  81   8   9
total       20 16 163 163  18  18

They are killing the Pythagorean on their recent stretch. Much of this can be attributed to the May 8 blowout at St. Louis, but it’s hard not to think that eventually the pendulum will swing the other way. Or the Padres will start to execute better and beat their opponents by greater margins. Remember, there are two ways to bring actual wins in line with Pythagorean wins:

  • The actual record adjusts according to run differential.
  • The run differential adjusts according to actual record.

People sometimes forget about that second one. Time will tell which applies to the current Padres.

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Marlins (13 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 13, 2005 (29) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (4-1, 3.79 ERA) vs Josh Beckett (5-2, 2.14)

After a 5-2 road trip, the Pads return home to play the two best teams the NL East has to offer. The story out of Florida is the pitching. Marlins hurlers are holding the opposition to .226/.300/.328 through 31 games. They’re basically making everyone look like Paul Bako or Juan Castro right now. Looking for chinks in the armor, not finding much. I guess the one good thing is that the Pads aren’t throwing a left-hander against them this weekend. The Fish are hitting .316/.373/.462 against southpaws, as compared to a more manageable .259/.335/.392 versus right-handers.

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Eaton vs current Marlins  115 .339 .392 .513
Beckett vs current Padres  76 .211 .315 .316

Juan Pierre (.444/.483/.630! in 27 AB) has Eaton’s number. In limited time, Miguel Cabrera (.714/.750/1.286 in 7 AB) has put up some sick numbers as well. On the other side, no Padres have faced Beckett often enough to make a difference. Khalil Greene has the lone home run.

Random stat of the day: Brian Giles has yet to strike out in May. Over those 10 games, he’s hitting .378/.500/.703, with seven extra base hits and nine walks.

Stauffer Wins Debut

by Geoff Young on May 12, 2005 (7) Comments

So Tim Stauffer won his big-league debut Wednesday at Cincinnati. Congratulations! The win also marked manager Bruce Bochy’s 800th as a Padre. Congrats to Bochy as well. And while we’re at it, congratulations to the entire team on a 5-2 road trip. I’m sure it makes coming home that much sweeter.

Stauffer’s line: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 108 pitches. Not bad, right? It’s even better when you consider how his debut started: HBP, HR, BB, 2B, HBP. Yep, two runs in and bases loaded with nobody out in the first. But you know what? That was the end of the scoring. Nice.

Also nice is seeing the top two guys in the lineup reach base 10 times in a game. How did the Pads manage to score only seven runs with that kind of production from Dave Roberts and Mark Loretta? Ah, yes: they left 15 runners on base. Don’t get me wrong, a win’s a win, but let’s start cashing in on opportunities.

In other news, Ryan Klesko has matched last year’s home run total:

       AB   BA  OBP  SLG HR  ISO XB/H HR/AB
2004  402 .291 .399 .448  9 .157 .368  44.7
2005  116 .259 .363 .552  9 .293 .533  12.9

Healthy? Yeah, I think maybe so.

More Stauffer

Here’s a little of what some other folks are saying. You might also check out the comments to Wednesday’s In-Game Discussion.

  • Mr. Towers, can Timmy stay for a while? (San Diego Spotlight). Peter takes a look at Tim Stauffer’s big-league debut. I think it’s safe to say a lot of us share Peter’s excitement.
  • Stauffer wins first for Padres (Padres.com). Quoth the pitcher: “After I got out of the first, I started to feel a little bit more relaxed… It’s nice to show people what I can do.”
  • Tim terrific (Saratogian). The baseball team at Stauffer’s high school watched the game via Internet, projected onto a “big screen.”
  • Shaky start, but fantastic finish for Padres hurler (Albany Times-Union). Stauffer’s father attended the game wearing “a Padres Hawaiian print shirt and khaki shorts.” How can you not like that? Also, this tidbit: “Jim O’Leary, a teammate at Richmond, missed the final exam in an economics class he’s taking at Malloy College in Long Island to be here. He won’t be allowed to make the test up, either.”
  • Hometown fans root for Stauffer (Saratogian). More local reaction. I don’t know about you, but I never get tired of these stories.
  • Stauffer shows moxie, gets win in debut (NC Times). Bochy praises the rookie for his composure.
  • Curse of Ismael ends (U-T). Let’s not tell anyone that Stauffer was taking #1 starter Woody Williams‘ spot in the rotation and that Darrell May is the guy who replaced Tim Redding in the #5 spot, m’kay? If they want to declare the “curse” ended, that’s just fine by me.

Off day today, then three against the Fish starting Friday and three against the Bravos starting Monday.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Reds (11 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 11, 2005 (165) Comments

first pitch: 9:35 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Tim Stauffer (big-league debut) vs Paul Wilson (1-3, 7.25 ERA)

Brian Lawrence‘s road struggles continued Tuesday, as the Pads were unable to overcome their second straight 5-1 defecit in the ninth. More poor baserunning and lack of clutch hitting were contributing factors, as were the decisions to have Dave Roberts pinch hit for Xavier Nady and Ryan Klesko not pinch hit for Damian Jackson in the ninth.

Wednesday sees Tim Stauffer make his big-league debut. Those in the San Diego area who are looking forward to watching him pitch will have to wait, as the game is not being broadcast on local television. As for Stauffer, here’s what he’s done leading up to this:

            IP  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
college  346.0 2.16 7.08 0.36 2.00 9.42
minors   206.2 2.79 8.75 0.83 2.44 6.27

I looked through an old dataset to see if I could find any current big leaguers with similar minor league numbers. Unfortunately, the list was littered with names like Willie Adams, Joel Adamson, Matt Drews, Robert Toth, and Bret Wagner. I did manage to find one guy, and it’s kinda funny because you’d be hard pressed to come up with a pitcher whose style is any less like Stauffer’s:

                IP  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Esteban Yan  379.2 3.15 8.70 0.52 2.16 6.16

I don’t know how much faith I have in this comp, but there it is. FWIW, Yan has had very mixed success in the big leagues.

If there’s one concern I have in looking at Stauffer’s line, it’s undoubtedly the low strikeout numbers. From that same dataset, the most successful big-league pitchers who punched out fewer than 7 per 9 innings as minor leaguers have been Terry Adams, Brian Boehringer, Jim Brower, Paul Byrd, Chris Carpenter, Mike DeJean, Elmer Dessens, John Frascatore, Jim Mecir, Bill Simas, and Donne Wall. Some pretty useful arms in that group but, with the possible exception of Carpenter, no real impact guys.

On the other hand, this is but one dataset and every case is different. I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade – obviously we’re all hoping Stauffer succeeds (and statistical comps tell us nothing about a player’s makeup; by all accounts, Stauffer’s is off the charts) – just trying to keep our expectations in check. With all the talk of curses and such, the last thing anyone needs to do is build this kid up as an ace. Let him go out and do his job, and see where it goes from there.

Speaking of expectations, the pitcher Stauffer will face in his big-league debut is former Mets #1 draft pick and phenom Paul Wilson. A much more highly regarded prospect in his day than Stauffer is now, Wilson has overcome serious injuries to become a decent – if expensive – option at the back end of a rotation. He is coming off a game in which all eight batters he faced reached base and scored. Getting healthy against the Pads may prove tricky:

                          AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Wilson vs current Padres  69 .420 .494 .826

Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko have 20 plate appearances between them against Wilson; seven of those have resulted in home runs.

Again, the game starts at 9:35 a.m. PT and is not being televised in San Diego. Feel free to chat as you follow the action online; if anyone is catching some other video feed, maybe you can let us know how Stauffer looks.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Reds (10 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 10, 2005 (204) Comments

first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (2-3, 5.19 ERA) vs Brandon Claussen (1-3, 5.60 ERA)
game preview: CBS

The Padres, fielding their projected Opening Day starting lineup for the first time all year, mounted an improbable comeback victory in the series opener at Cincy. And although he went 0 for 3 in his return from the DL, Khalil Greene was a welcome sight out on the diamond Monday night. Pads have closed the gap on LA and are now just two games out of first place. With the Dodgers battling in St. Louis, the Friars have a good opportunity to gain even more ground.

Tonight’s matchup:

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Lawrence vs current Reds   98 .296 .355 .469
Claussen vs everybody     372 .304 .378 .481

The only Reds who have faced Lawrence much are Adam Dunn (.267/.389/.600 in 15 AB) and former Padre Rich Aurilia (.333/.333/.458 in 24 AB). Each has a homer against Lawrence, as do Wily Mo Pena (3 AB) and Jacob Cruz (2 AB).

Claussen is making his 20th big-league start. No current Padre has ever faced him, so I’ve listed Claussen’s career numbers. Although he’s a southpaw, lefties (.367/.466/.617) have had much better success than righties (.281/.343/.434) in his limited time in the Show.

Lawrence has been two entirely different pitchers so far in 2005. He’s made three starts each at home and on the road:

        IP  H HR BB SO   ERA AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Home  23.0 15  0  4 14  1.57 83 .181 .227 .229
Road  11.2 23  3  8  6 12.34 54 .426 .500 .722

His road starts have been at Wrigley, the BOB, and Busch, so we can’t even blame Coors Field. Here’s hoping this is nothing more than a small sample anomaly and Lawrence can buck the trend in Cincy.

For the Pads, over the past 7 days it’s been all Brian Giles (.370/.485/.741 in 27 AB) and Ryan Klesko (.290/.353/.774 in 31 AB), with a dash of Ramon Hernandez (.348/.348/.565 in 23 AB) thrown in for good measure. The bullpen has worked 31 innings over that span, so now would be a good time to have the starter go deep into the game.

Other Stuff

These don’t really belong here, but there wasn’t enough to justify a separate post, so here they shall be:

  • Thompson promoted to Double-A (NC Times). Sean Thompson is headed to Mobile. Southpaw has fanned 10.22 batters per 9 over 284 1/3 pro innings. On Monday, in the Love Boat thread, I said it would be “interesting to see how well his success translates to higher levels once he’s deemed ready.” Well, he’s been deemed ready. Go get ‘em, kid! Also of note: Michael Johnson is on the DL with “inflammation in his right hand.” He expects to be back later in the week.
  • Also, as Dave mentioned in the comments to Monday’s In-Game Discussion, Rickey Henderson will be playing for the San Diego Surf Dawgs of the independent Golden Baseball League. The Surf Dawgs play their home games at Tony Gwynn Stadium, and the opener is Thursday, May 26, against the Long Beach Armada. I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty psyched at the prospect of seeing Rickey here in San Diego again.

Inconceivable!

by Geoff Young on May 09, 2005 (6) Comments

Regardless of whether the word means what I think it does, that was an unlikely win. Down 5-1 in the ninth on the road? Great work by the bullpen again, although they’ve now logged 15 innings in two days. Brian Lawrence needs to bust out the old efficiency cap on Tuesday. (Efficiency cap? Really.)

Game Notes

  • Yesterday I suggested that the way to beat Aaron Harang was to get to him late in the game. Harang obviously didn’t agree with that theory and completely shut down the Pads all night.
  • Jake Peavy didn’t have his best stuff, and for the second game in a row, the Padres had trouble getting out of the first inning. But thanks to some late-inning heroics, Peavy didn’t take the loss. He has made seven starts now and has only two decisions, despite averaging just under seven innings per start.
  • Some readers of Ducksnorts will be happy to note that Robert Fick is pounding the ball. He hit a homer in Sunday’s blowout at St. Louis (and almost hit another), then cleared the bases to tie the game in the ninth of Monday night’s game. It’s real nice to have guys like Fick and Mark Sweeney ready to come off the bench late in games.
  • Ryan Klesko‘s bomb to lead off the ninth was huge. I mentioned on Sunday that he’s pretty much swinging for the fences late in games. Of his eight homers this year, five have come after the seventh inning. He also needs one more bomb to tie his total for 2004.
  • Speaking of Klesko, news flash: Two hands held high in the air by your third base coach means don’t keep running toward home plate. What a waste of a beautiful pinch single by Adam Eaton in the 12th.
  • Speaking of Eaton, he and Chris Hammond share the team lead with four wins.
  • Trevor Hoffman picked up the save, which now gives him 400 as a member of the Padres.
  • FREE XAVIER NADY! (Sorry, just had to get that in there.)

Everybody’s Movin’, Everybody’s Groovin’

Out: Tim Redding (DL), Jesse Garcia (AAA), Randy Williams (DFA)
In: Tim Stauffer, Khalil Greene, Brian Falkenborg

Of Stauffer, pitching coach Darren Balsley says, “His stuff is better than I thought it was. I always heard he had good mound presence and knew how to pitch, but usually when they talk about guys like that they don’t throw real hard. But he pitches right around 90-91 mph.” The Padres first-round pick in the 2003 draft makes his big-league debut Wednesday afternoon against the Reds in a game that will not be televised in the San Diego area.

Side note: Stauffer is a product of the University of Richmond, alma mater of current big leaguers Sean Casey and Brian Jordan.

[Update: Jason Scavone tipped me off to an article he wrote for the Saratogian about Stauffer's promotion. These are the types of quotes I love: "It's just like any other game. They're just bigger names. If you go right at them, you're going to get them out." Quiet confidence. Remind you of any shortstops we know? Thanks, Jason, for the heads-up!]

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Reds (9 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 09, 2005 (151) Comments

first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 2.32 ERA) vs Aaron Harang (1-2, 3.96 ERA)
game preview: CBS

The bad news is, the Padres are coming off a 15-5 shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals. The good news is, the Friars still managed to take three of four in St. Louis, where they hadn’t won any games prior to this week since 2001. Even in the loss, it was basically an 11-run first that did them in. One bad inning in four games against what had been the best team in the NL to that point? I’ll take it.

Up next, the Cincinnati Reds, who are currently 11-19, 8 games behind the aforementioned Cardinals in the NL Central. The first game features Padres ace Peavy against San Diego product Harang. It also marks the return of Khalil Greene, who has been out with a broken finger since April 16.

                          AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Reds     49 .224 .309 .306
Harang vs current Padres  40 .300 .364 .375

Not much to go on here for either pitcher. Joe Randa has the lone homer against Peavy. As for Harang, historically he has been easier to hit as the game goes on. Three-year splits by inning (courtesy ESPN):

Inn   AB   BA  OBP  SLG AB/HR  ISO
1-3  659 .266 .324 .403  36.6 .137
4-6  507 .304 .361 .546  19.5 .242

And by number of pitches (courtesy ESPN):

 #Pit    AB   BA  OBP  SLG AB/HR  ISO
 1-15   150 .260 .343 .420  30.0 .160
16-30   190 .274 .333 .405  38.0 .131
31-45   220 .256 .297 .379  55.0 .123
46-60   203 .271 .320 .438  25.4 .167
61-75   191 .288 .350 .476  38.2 .188
76-90   163 .350 .406 .632  14.8 .282
91-105   92 .261 .324 .543  15.3 .282

The strategy would seem to be make him throw a lot of pitches early, then jump on him when he starts leaving them up in the zone the second and third times through the lineup. That’s actually not a bad approach against most pitchers. We’ll see how well the Padres can execute.

Minor Monday

by Geoff Young on May 09, 2005 (5) Comments

Once again using Baseball America’s preseason top 30 prospects as our starting point, here’s a quick look at the system:

Hitters

                  Lvl   AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB SO
#1 Barfield,Jo    AAA  108 .250 .303 .370  9 31
#2 Guzman,Fr                 injured
#3 Kottaras,Ge      A+  90 .322 .402 .444 12 21
#6 Bush,Ma          A  110 .227 .267 .327  6 19
#10 McAnulty,Pa    AA   99 .303 .397 .364 15 23
#11 Knott,Jo      AAA  102 .225 .359 .441 19 26
#12 Bozied,Ta                injured
#13 Quintero,Hu   AAA   89 .281 .333 .517  6 12 (Hou)
#14 Killian,Bi      extended spring training
#16 Johnson,Be    AAA  101 .218 .319 .317 14 29
#18 Jones,Da                injured
#21 Furmaniak,J.  AAA  106 .217 .291 .264  9 35
#23 Ramirez,Yo      A   85 .200 .231 .329  4 19
#26 Johnson,Mi      A+  92 .315 .398 .685 16 32
#27 Cruz,Lu        AA   99 .162 .215 .172  5 23
Triple-A Portland

The power is starting to come for Josh Barfield, but he’s still not controlling the strike zone real well. Jon Knott is back on track after a very slow start; of his 23 hits this year, 14 are for extra bases. Ben Johnson is walking and striking out plenty, but not much else. J.J. Furmaniak has been in a horrendous slump over the past couple weeks, with just 5 hits in his last 43 at-bats.

Double-A Mobile

Paul McAnulty has cooled considerably since last we checked; his numbers remind you of anyone – Sean Burroughs, maybe? Luis Cruz is just having a miserable season; the lone bright spot is only 4 errors in 29 games.

Class-A Lake Elsinore

Khalil Greene finishes his rehab from a broken right finger with 6 hits in 12 at-bats. George Kottaras appears to be having little trouble with Cal League pitching. Believe it or not, Michael Johnson’s slugging percentage has dropped nearly a hundred points over the past couple weeks.

Class-A Ft. Wayne

Matt Bush remains last year’s #1 pick in the draft. Yordanny Ramirez, not so much.

Pitchers

                  Lvl    IP   ERA BB SO   BA
#4 Chick,Tr        AA  26.1  7.52 12 27 .276
#5 Stauffer,Ti    AAA  38.2  2.33  8 31 .238
#7 Germano,Ju     AAA  29.0  5.28  9 27 .289
#8 Thompson,Se      A+ 33.1  2.16 13 45 .210
#9 Baker,Br       AAA  12.2  4.97 12 13 .171
#15 Wells,Ja        A+ 31.1  5.46  5 20 .279
#17 Oxspring,Ch   AAA  29.2  4.55  4 25 .229
#19 Jimenez,Fa      A  25.0  2.88 13 11 .155
#20 Tucker,Ru      AA  12.1  4.38  9 13 .220
#22 Villatoro,Wi    A+ 15.2  2.87  8 19 .185
#24 Mateo,Na       AA  16.1  3.86  7  8 .277
#25 Bukvich,Ry    MLB   4.0 11.25  6  4 .167 (Tex)
#28 Martinez,Ja     A+ 26.1  6.15 10 25 .264
#29 Thayer,Da      AA  13.2  5.93  9 13 .327
#30 Williams,Ra   MLB   4.1 12.46  4  2 .350
Triple-A Portland

Tim Stauffer has been brilliant; his last start was a shutout and he’s likely headed to San Diego to replace Tim Redding, who suffered a “rotator-cuff strain” in Sunday afternoon’s loss to the Cardinals. Justin Germano is settling down after a rough start to the season; strikeout numbers are surprisingly high for him. Brad Baker remains tough to hit when he can find the plate; he’s basically having Scott Linebrink‘s season so far. Chris Oxspring’s numbers, aside from ERA, all look very good. Randy Williams is up with the big club, replacing Woody Williams on the Padres roster and assuming long relief duties.

Double-A Mobile

Travis Chick has not responded well to skipping past High-A; the strikeouts are there, but not much else is. Rusty Tucker continues to work his way back from 2003 Tommy John surgery.

Class-A Lake Elsinore

Sean Thompson continues to pitch well and rack up insane strikeout totals; it will be interesting to see how well his success translates to higher levels once he’s deemed ready. After a promising start, Jared Wells has tailed off a bit. Willmer Villatoro has been very solid, and Ducksnorts fave Javier Martinez continues to work his way back from 2004 shoulder surgery.

Class-A Ft. Wayne

Fabian Jimenez has come back to earth after getting off to a very hot start; he’s still not allowing many hits, but he’s striking out fewer than four batters per 9 innings.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Cardinals (8 May 2005)

by Geoff Young on May 08, 2005 (26) Comments

first pitch: 11:15 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Redding (0-4, 6.00 ERA) vs Jason Marquis (4-1, 2.85 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine | SI

Padres look to complete a most unlikely four-game sweep at Busch Stadium. Seems highly improbable, but then, so did a win behind Darrell May. Can Redding put together another good start and stave off the shadow of Tim Stauffer?

                               AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Redding vs current Cardinals  113 .345 .393 .540
Marquis vs current Padres      38 .316 .438 .526

Albert Pujols (.435/.458/.739 in 23 AB) and Scott Rolen (.304/.429/.565 in 23 AB) have had the most success against Redding. Reggie Sanders (.455/.455/1.000 in 11 AB) also has done quite well in limited action. The one guy Redding has handled pretty well is Jim Edmonds (.267/.353/.267 in 15 AB). Man, that Cardinals lineup is ridiculous.

For the Pads, the only guy who’s had many trips to the plate against Marquis is Geoff Blum (.364/.417/.818 in 11 AB), and he’s hurt. What else is going on for the Friars? As Jay noted in yesterday’s comments, Xavier Nady is rotting on the bench. He has just two at-bats over the past seven games (although three walks and a HBP give him six plate appearances). To put that in perspective, Adam Eaton has the same number of plate appearances during that stretch. FREE XAVIER NADY!

Moving along, here’s an interesting split for you:

Inning 7+
            AB   BA  OBP  SLG  R HR
Padres     373 .263 .364 .418 59 12
Opponents  357 .204 .293 .317 32  6

By comparison, here’s how things look in innings 1-6:

            AB   BA  OBP  SLG   R HR
Padres     700 .244 .319 .389  82 20
Opponents  730 .277 .335 .451 102 23

Pads own the late innings so far. That’s a pretty sick run differential. Also, check out the ISOs:

            1-6   7+
Padres     .145 .155
Opponents  .174 .113

Obviously it’d be nice to see a little less disparity in the early innings, but it’s nice to see the club finishing games strong. Finally, here are a couple of guys who are going for the downs late in the game:

             AB  BA  OBP  SLG HR
Nady 1-6    41 .293 .370 .415  1
Nady 7+     30 .200 .351 .600  3
Klesko 1-6  67 .269 .364 .433  2
Klesko 7+   35 .200 .349 .600  3

Totally different approaches. Between them, Nady and Ryan Klesko have exactly two singles from the seventh on.

I’m headed up to Elsinore this afternoon to see Khalil Greene‘s final rehab game. Also, Sean Thompson (BA #8) is starting today. I’ll try to jump in on the convo a little before I take off, but if not, talk to your heart’s content. Go Pads!