IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (26 Jul 06)

first pitch: 12:10 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Jake Peavy (4-10, 5.10 ERA) vs Brad Penny (4-11, 3.99 ERA)
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Since striking out 16 Braves on May 22, Jake Peavy is 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA over nine starts. I don’t have any easy answers for his struggles, and I doubt anyone else does either — otherwise he wouldn’t be struggling.

No TV Wednesday afternoon as the Pads go for the sweep in LA before heading to Denver for four against the Rockies.

IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (25 Jul 06)

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (6-6, 4.64 ERA) vs Mark Hendrickson (4-11, 3.99 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Padres won the opener at Chavez Ravine, 7-6 in 11 innings. Should’ve been over in regulation, but for the second straight game, the defense let down Scott Linebrink. Still, a win is a win and we’ll take it.

Chan Ho Park faces his old team Tuesday night, while the Dodgers counter with former NBA player Mark Hendrickson. This raises the obvious question: In a game of one-on-one between Hendrickson and Chris Young, who do you like?

Third Base Reset

A while back we looked at third basemen who might be coming to San Diego. Some of the names have changed, but it’s what we all want to talk about, so speculate and debate to your heart’s content. And buy a T-shirt. ;-)

Potentially Available Third Basemen
Name Team Age AB BA OBP SLG AB/HR BB/PA Comment
Rich Aurilia Cin 34 247 .279 .339 .494 20.6 .084 Might be the best value available.
David Bell Phi 33 309 .288 .354 .414 51.5 .087 Didn’t we used to call him Joe Randa?
Adrian Beltre Sea 27 384 .263 .326 .417 48.0 .071 I’d rather bring back Sean Burroughs.
Wilson Betemit Atl 25 193 .290 .348 .513 21.4 .081 Largely untested, but excellent upside.
Aaron Boone Cle 33 312 .250 .311 .365 62.4 .065 I’d rather bring in Adrian Beltre.
Morgan Ensberg Hou 30 276 .236 .390 .500 14.5 .195 If he’s healthy, this is the guy we want.
Bill Hall Mil 26 331 .266 .317 .562 15.0 .069 Second coming of Jose Valentin?
Mike Lowell Bos 32 356 .292 .343 .503 27.4 .067 The rumored asking price (Jake Peavy) is hilarious.
Melvin Mora Bal 34 400 .283 .348 .408 36.4 .065 Not the worst idea, depending on the price.
Joe Randa Pit 36 135 .296 .336 .415 67.5 .053 Been there, done that.
Ty Wigginton TB 28 331 .260 .309 .456 20.7 .064 Low OBP is a deal-breaker.
Stats are through games of July 24, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN.

Preferences? Others we’re missing?

IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (24 Jul 06)

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (8-4, 3.59 ERA) vs Derek Lowe (7-7, 4.19 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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I’ve got nothing this morning, so we’ll get the IGD fired up a little early today. Thank goodness the Padres didn’t get swept in San Francisco. If there’s anything worse than a Giants fan, it’s a happy Giants fan.

Off to LA for a three-game set with the Dodgers. Reliever Scott Williamson, recently acquired from the Cubs, will be in uniform for the Pads tonight — and not a moment too soon. Picking up a third baseman would a good next step. It seems like we keep hearing the same names but everything is just speculation at this point. I stand by my offer to play the position for food.

As for tonight’s game, we’ve got Chris Young and Derek Lowe on the mound. Lowe has allowed two or more runs in nine consecutive starts. After working six shutout innings against the Phillies on June 1, his ERA stood at 2.68 for the season. Since then, here’s what he’s done:

Derek Lowe, 6/2/06 – 7/19/06
IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA
53.2 12.41 1.01 3.19 4.86 6.37
Stats courtesy of David Pinto’s Day By Day Database.

So either the Padres are catching Lowe at a good time or he’s due for a strong outing. See, I can make any situation ambiguous — it’s a gift.

On the flip side, Young continues to confound by being a much better pitcher away from Petco Park than at the allegedly pitcher-friendly venue:

Chris Young, Home/Road Splits through 7/23/06
  IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA BA OBP SLG
Home 60.1 8.20 1.94 3.43 9.40 4.77 .243 .323 .473
Home 52.1 5.85 1.03 2.75 7.39 2.24 .181 .248 .314
Stats courtesy of ESPN.

At home, opposing batters hit him about like Jose Valentin (.243/.322/.450 career). On the road, there aren’t really any hitters to compare his opposition stats to — he’s pretty much vintage Pedro Martinez level (without the strikeouts).

Young is an extreme flyball pitcher — nobody over the past 10 years even comes close to his 0.49 groundball/flyball ratio this season — but I still find it hard to believe that he had better success at Ameriquest Field last year (82.2 IP, 4.35 ERA) than he has so far at Petco Park. Last season, Ameriquest was #6 in MLB in park factor for runs at 1.076, while Petco was #30 at 0.803. This season, Petco has been closer to neutral (#23 at 0.935) but it still favors pitchers.

I guess Young didn’t get the memo.

IGD: Padres @ Giants (23 Jul 06)

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (6-7, 4.61 ERA) vs Jamey Wright (6-8, 4.95 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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How about this heat? It reached 103 F in Clairemont on Saturday, with 65% humidity! That may not seem like much to folks in many parts of the country (or even out in El Cajon), but realize that it’s big news when we top 85 here.

I’ve been beating the heat by hanging out in air-conditioned rooms at Comic-Con. For years I used to just wander to exhibit hall for hours on end in the hope of finding who-knows-what. Nowadays, I’m all about the panels. So far this time I’ve gotten to hear Scott McCloud, Noel Neill, Edward James Olmos, Matt Groening, Ray Bradbury, Ray Harryhausen, and Forrest Ackerman, among many others. When you get down to it, I love hearing someone tell a great story, and these are some of the masters.

On the baseball front, the Padres continued to get smacked around by the Giants, who knocked them out of first place with a 4-3 victory over the Friars. Woody Williams had a solid outing, but his defense didn’t do him any favors.

Let’s face it, the Pads haven’t been executing at all since the All-Star break and the standings reflect that. First place was fun, but such status is a privilege, not a right. If the Padres want to get back there, they need to stop playing lousy baseball.

But I state the obvious.

Former Giants farmhand Clay Hensley tries to stop the bleeding Sunday afternoon at PhoneCo, as the Padres look to avoid the sweep. Jamey Wright, whose presence in the big leagues continues to baffle, counters for San Francisco. As has been the case all week, now would be a real good time for the Padres to win a game.

Padres Acquire Williamson to Help Shore Up Bullpen

The Padres have acquired reliever Scott Williamson from the Cubs for a couple of pitchers in Low-A ball. Williamson isn’t having a great year — his ERA is over 5.00 but he still has pretty nice peripherals. He has a career ERA of 3.22 in over 400 big-league innings but has had trouble staying healthy over the past few years. Basically he’s a younger Rudy Seanez, with higher upside.

I love this deal, especially given the price. Fabian Jimenez and Joel Santo could turn out to be something, but they’re both so far away. Jimenez was ranked #29 in the Padres organization by Baseball America prior to the season, while Santo checked in at #16. As reader Paul points out in yesterday’s comments, there isn’t a lot separating Williamson from, say, Gary Majewski, who cost the Reds two good, young big-leaguers.

As to the notion that Williamson’s presence (he arrives on Monday for the Dodgers series in LA) could signal Scott Linebrink’s departure, I suppose anything is possible, but I’d expect it to take a lot for the Padres to move him. Despite his “struggles” this season (mostly with the longball), Linebrink is one of the most reliable setup men in the game and probably could close for many clubs. The demand for him should be pretty high, and so should the price.

Would Morgan Ensberg be enough? Assuming Ensberg is healthy, the answer would seem to be “maybe.” The Padres essentially would be filling one void by creating another. Conventional wisdom says it’s easier to find good relievers than good third basemen, and the Padres’ recent history appears to bear that out. On the other hand, you don’t move a guy as reliable as Linebrink without careful consideration. The majority of relievers out there are fungible; Linebrink isn’t one of them.

In Ensberg, however, the Padres would be getting a short-term and medium-term solution. This isn’t a Joe Randa rental situation. Ensberg has 19 homers this year and hit 36 last season. He’s 30 years old. A guy like Ensberg could buy some time for the likes of Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli, and give the Padres their first legit third baseman since Phil Nevin manned the hot corner.

The lame, cop-out answer I’ll give is that I could see this one going either way. I think that Ensberg is about what it would cost to get Linebrink, but I’m not sure that the Padres would be willing to create a potential hole in the bullpen. It won’t surprise me if a deal happens, but it won’t surprise me if it doesn’t.

And that, my friends, is about as non-committal as it gets. ;-)

IGD: Padres @ Giants (22 Jul 06)

first pitch: 6:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (4-1, 3.38 ERA) vs Jason Schmidt (6-6, 3.06 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Padres are 2-6 since the All-Star break, having been outscored, 70-47. Opponents are hitting .324/.396/.612 in those eight games, with 19 home runs. Hooray for exhibition games in the middle of the season!

IGD: Padres @ Giants (21 Jul 06)

first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (4-9, 4.78 ERA) vs Matt Cain (6-6, 4.90 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Round 1 in the battle for supremacy in the NL West goes to the Giants, as they dropped the Padres, 9-3, in the opener at Phone Company Park. The two teams meet up again tonight at PhoneCo in a matchup of what should be the future of pitching in this division. Unfortunately, Jake Peavy and Matt Cain both have ERAs hovering right around 5.00.

Peavy is 0-4, with a 5.77 ERA, since June 1. Cain, meantime, has proven difficult to hit this year, particularly by right-handers, who have a .194/.279/.276 line against him. Lefties are doing much better (.241/.349/.452), which suggests to me that he may not change speeds real well. If he ever figures out how to do that, Cain could rank alongside Peavy (assuming a return to his usual dominant self) and Arizona’s Brandon Webb as the class of the division before too long.

Time to get Peavy back on track. Time to get a win.

Friday Links (21 Jul 06)

I’ll be flying my freak flag at Comic-Con this weekend, so forgive me if I’m not able to participate in the festivities as much as usual. Meantime, bring on the links!


  • July Trade Rumors (of course) (Brew Crew Ball). One of the alleged possibilites to replace the recently departed Vinny Castilla is Milwaukee’s Bill Hall. Others are, well, pretty much everyone out there. With the way Atlanta is playing right now, I’m not sure Wilson Betemit is still on the market. I like the Morgan Ensberg idea, assuming he finds health and the Astros are content to play Aubrey Huff at third. Shea Hillenbrand, just DFA’d by the Blue Jays, might not be a bad idea either — he’s being portrayed as a malcontent, but my guess is there was more going on in Toronto than we’re being told. Still, I don’t know if he legitimately can play third base on a regular basis. The Padres don’t seem so sure either.
  • Rich Burk, broadcaster for the Triple-A Portland Beavers, has a couple audio interviews ups with Kevin Towers and Grady Fuson. I haven’t had a chance to listen to these yet, but longtime reader LynchMob says they’re worthy, and if they’re good enough for him, they’re good enough for me.
  • Checking in on the Eastern and Southern Leagues (Hardball Times). This one’s a little old, but I just wanted to point out that George Kottaras was recognized as Southern League “All Star Most Likely to Succeed.”
  • NL Midseason Report Cards (Yahoo!). SI.com’s John Donovan gives the Padres a B, which sounds exactly right to me.
  • Youth Will Be Served (Baseball Crank). The Crank notes the “massive youth movement sweeping baseball” and calls out the Padres’ Josh Barfield and Adrian Gonzalez.
  • Win Probability Added is all the rage. David Pinto questions its value in certain contexts. Engaging discussion ensues.
  • Examining the Relief of Relieving (Hardball Times). Steve Treder attempts to answer the question: “Which task is more difficult for pitchers to master: starting or relieving?”
  • Bowden 1, Krivsky 0 (Hardball Times). The Nationals completely fleeced the Reds last week. Can anyone remember a trade this bad? Also, why couldn’t the Padres get in on this one? I’m sure the fans of 28 other teams are asking themselves the same question.
  • All-Star Game of Spyware (McAfee Site Advisor). From the article: “Barry Bonds, Derek Jeter, and Albert Pujols are household names for any baseball fanatic… Searching for screensavers for Bonds, Jeter or Pujols and clicking on one of the results will give a PC a .600 Earned Risk Average (ERA) — in other words, a 60% chance of landing at a risky site.” This is serious stuff, but I have to ask: How is Bonds second to Colorado’s Josh Fogg? [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Baseball Musings for this one.]

There it is. Happy Friday, everyone, and go Padres!

IGD: Padres @ Giants (20 Jul 06)

first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (6-5, 4.49 ERA) vs Noah Lowry (4-6, 4.58 ERA)
preview: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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The Padres fell three outs shy of the sweep against the Phillies on Wednesday, dropping the contest, 5-4, and the homestand. The good news is, the Friars now get to leave Petco Park, where they are 25-28, and head out on the road, where they are 25-16, for the rest of the month.

Most teams have a home-field advantage. The Padres have a home-field conundrum. From a fan’s perspective, it goes a little like this:

  • I enjoy watching games at Petco Park.
  • I enjoy watching my team win.
  • My team is the Padres.

Pick two.

The Pads begin the road trip Thursday evening with four in San Francisco. Barry Bonds hasn’t been indicted yet, so bust out the flaxseed oil, snap open a cold beverage, and enjoy the game.

Go Padres!