Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

So, it says here that we’ve got a meetup Sunday, August 20, at Petco Park. I know that’s almost three weeks away but I thought I’d better start rounding up the troops now before I forget.

Who’s up for it? If we have enough people, we might be able to get a group discount. Leave a note in the comments or drop me a line if you can make it.

We’ll rule the world. It’ll be sweet.

Well. That was quite the frenzy considering nothing of real consequence got done. Movement for the sake of movement, like a child who waves his arms and screams, “Look what I can do” when the only activity is his waving and screaming.

In the end, one trade was made. Another was reported by numerous sources, but didn’t actually happen. And so much is left undone.

Ceda for Walker

The Padres acquired Todd Walker from the Cubs for minor-league pitcher Jose Ceda. Taken on its own, this is a nice pickup. Walker is a professional left-handed hitter, who should help fill the void left by the departure of Robert Fick and Mark Sweeney this past off-season. Walker knows the strike zone and can drive the ball into the gaps with some authority. He’s a real good fit for the Padres.

He’s also not a third baseman.

Walker’s last stab at the hot corner came in 1997, when he played 40 games there for the Twins. For some perspective, Phil Nevin has played 427 big-league games at third base since Walker last manned the position. Sean Burroughs and Xavier Nady were still in high school.

I’m not saying that Walker can’t do it, just that he hasn’t done it in a long time. And it’s a curious move for an organization that just a year ago seemed so reluctant to experiment at third base during a pennant chase.

There are those who believe that the Padres shouldn’t have released Vinny Castilla without having a plan to replace him. To them I would reply that bringing Castilla to San Diego in the first place didn’t exactly constitute a plan. We were going to pay for that sooner or later. Now, Walker is here and being asked to do something he hasn’t done in more than eight years. Quite the reversal from last year’s strategy.

Anyway, I like the addition of Walker, but I’m not crazy about how the Padres intend to use him. He’s a potentially useful piece who came at a reasonable price (yeah, I know Ceda throws a bazillion miles an hour — so do a lot of guys; I hope it works out for him and the Cubs, but the odds are pretty heavily stacked against him) and he gives the Padres a legitimate left-handed bat off the bench. The only downside with Walker is that he doesn’t solve or even begin to address the problem at third base.

Linebrink for Perez and Bell

This one was reported by more than one source as a done deal. The Padres were to have sent Scott Linebrink to the Mets for former Friar Oliver Perez (acquired earlier in the day in a deal — ironically enough — for Nady) and reliever Heath Bell.

Many years ago I was an angry young man. Periodically I would rage at this or that, like a child who waves his arms and screams. Movement for the… well, you know.

These days, I prefer to pick my spots. I assure you, if this deal had gone through, I’d be getting my money’s worth right about now. No disrespect to Perez, but the fact that this trade was even being considered still bothers me. Why would you hold Linebrink out of a deal for a third baseman (Wilson Betemit) who filled a real need and then turn around and move him for a guy who couldn’t crack the big-league staff right now (Perez) and a scrub reliever (Bell — yeah, I’ve seen his peripherals; ask Steve Andrade how far those and a cab will get you).

Assuming the Betemit deal was even out there (I read the same stuff as you), [Richard notes in the comments that no assumption is necessary -- according to the North County Times article linked below, it was offered and declined] I can’t even begin to imagine the thought process that led to a preference for Perez and Bell in exchange for the one bargaining chip the Padres had. The only thing I can think (or hope, anyway) is that maybe whoever the Pads are trying to acquire a third baseman from (Houston, we have an Ensberg) expressed an interest in those two pitchers.

But who knows.

The fact that Linebrink didn’t go anywhere leads me to suspect that this isn’t over yet. I have to think the Morgan Ensberg fires are still warm (or maybe that’s smoke from the pipe of whoever thought tossing Adam Everett and Khalil Greene into the deal made sense). But even if they aren’t, I’m good with hanging onto Linebrink. Sure, the guy has had a rough couple of weeks, and he’s served up a few too many jacks this year, but there still aren’t many better at what he does — and the rest of the league and its GMs know it.

Now What?

A third baseman would be nice. I could’ve gotten behind Betemit — he’s not great, but he’s solid enough now and has projectability. I hate to see him in a Dodgers uni (especially since they were able to unload Danys Baez in the deal that brought him to LA). I hold out some hope for Ensberg.

I know the market is allegedly soft at the hot corner, but that didn’t stop the Dodgers and Astros (Aubrey Huff) from upgrading the position. As a fan, it’s frustrating to sit around and watch nothing happen when improvements are needed.

I’m hoping this isn’t where the story ends. Because if it is, even if the Padres are able to win the division again, I have a hard time seeing them go deep in the playoffs without a big-league third baseman. And if that happens, we can all look forward to a nice, long winter of “what if?”

Other Reports and Reaction

• Preserving pitching the right move for Padres (North County Times). Shaun O’Neill’s report includes this quote from Padres GM Kevin Towers: “Well, we’re not sitting on our hands. It just doesn’t make sense to do something unless it significantly increases our chances to win.” Hard to find fault with that logic. The potential Perez – Bell deal is corroborated here. I can’t emphasize enough how glad I am that didn’t happen. The only reason you move Linebrink is to solve (not remedy) the third base situation.
• Padres acquire Walker for 3rd (North County Times). Brian Hiro notes that the Padres “aren’t done searching for an everyday third baseman” even after the trade for Walker. The theme of not wanting to break up the bullpen is echoed here. Towers apparently consulted Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and thinks that Walker’s biggest problem — throwing — will be alleviated by the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first. As for Walker, he’s saying all the right things: “If I can’t do it, it’s not going to be from a lack of effort. I’m going to go over there and give them everything I’ve got.”
• Padres get Walker from Cubs in effort to plug third-base hole (San Diego Union-Tribune). Tom Krasovic’s piece includes a sidebar of other deadline deals that were and weren’t made.
• Padres land Walker for prospect (Padres.com). Lyle Spencer covers the story over at the offical site.
• Cubs trade Walker to Padres (Cub Reporter). Apparently Walker wasn’t the most popular guy in the Cubs clubhouse. Then again, the Cubs clubhouse probably isn’t a real happy place to be these days.
• Padres Get Walker To Play Third Base (Baseball America). Will Lingo breaks down the deal for both sides. His report on Ceda is a little less glowing than some others I’ve seen: “At this point he’s a one-pitch pitcher with mechanical issues, but as a teenager with a big arm he has potential.”
• Todd Walker is not Aundrea (Gaslamp Ball). I don’t watch “reality television” so this reference is lost on me, but Dex et al. don’t seem happy either.

For the second straight month, the Padres found themselves treading water. The Friars followed a 14-12 June with a 13-13 July. Not great, but when you consider that this club was 18-35 over those two months in 2005, it’s hard to complain.

Hit Me with Your Best Shot

A closer look at July 2006 versus July 2005 reveals exactly where the improvements were made. In a word: hitting.

The Padres scored nearly two runs more per game this July than last. They obliterated last year’s totals in every category.

The Pads hit 35 homers this month. If that doesn’t impress you, it should — it’s easily their high-water mark in a month since moving to Petco Park in 2004.

And if that still doesn’t impress you, maybe this will: Mike Cameron, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jake Peavy combined to hit more home runs in July 2006 than the entire team did in July 2005. Plus, you’ve got to like these trends, which we first looked at last month:

We’ve already noted the success of Gonzalez, Josh Barfield, and Khalil Greene since Merv Rettenmund returned as hitting coach. July also saw standout performances from Cameron, Josh Bard, and Mike Piazza. In fact, aside from Brian Giles (give him a mulligan since he’s the only guy who did anything last July) and the Hot Corner of Doom™ (which managed to lower its season OPS despite entering the month at a pitiful 607), just about everyone contributed on offense.

Make It a Double

Chicks may dig the long ball, but doubles can be plenty effective as well. The Padres outdoubled their opponents in July, 63-50, marking the third consecutive month in which they’d done so. For the season, the Pads have outdoubled their opponents, 199-178.

Big deal, right? As longtime reader Bill Robens notes:

Last year, about this time, the Padres were getting mauled by our opponents in doubles. So mauled, I wrote you about it. On July 1, 2005, we’d been outdoubled at home by 30 — or 3 doubles every 4 games. A HUGE disparity. And it seemed to confirm all of our worst fears: that our poor outfield defense was killing the team.

Poor outfield defense was a big problem in 2005. The Padres still are getting outdoubled at home, but this season it’s at a rate of one per every five games, which is much more reasonable.

But defense doesn’t tell the whole story. The other half of the equation is that hitting for power was a problem in 2005. This year? The Padres already have a guy with 19 homers, which they couldn’t say last season. And before too long, it’s likely that three others will pass that mark.

Enough about the homers; we’re looking at doubles now:

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s a +0.20 differential this year versus a -0.30 differential last year. This effectively means that every other game, you can add a double for the Padres or take one away from the opposition compared to last year. Over the course of the season, that’s going to make a difference.

Okay, so we get that the Padres hit well in July. Therefore the reason for their .500 record during the month must lie elsewhere. [Cue sound of Wile E. Coyote falling off a cliff.]

Pitching, Anyone?

It’s a rhetorical question, but I’ll answer it anyway: No. Only relievers Jon Adkins (1.32 ERA in 13.2 IP) and Cla Meredith (1.88 ERA in 14.1 IP) had an ERA below 4.00 in July. Among starters, only Woody Williams (4.30 ERA in 29.1 IP) and Mike Thompson (4.42 ERA in 18.1 IP) had an ERA below 5.00. Everyone else was pretty much a disaster.

Many of the names have changed, but the pitching this July was basically a carbon copy of last July, when it was dismal:

So, the big difference was in the fact that the hitters bailed out the pitchers this year. I guess we can thank Rettenmund for that. Or Bard, Barfield, Cameron, Gonzalez, and Greene. Would you believe, all of the above?

Not the pitchers, anyway. Except for Peavy, who hit two home runs during the month. Did you know that he had 6 RBI in July? Fellow moundsmen Woody Williams, Chan Ho Park, and Chris Young each drove in a run during the month, giving Padres pitchers a total of 9 RBI.

Punch line: That’s one more RBI than Padres third basemen accounted for in 2 1/2 times as many at-bats. Not that anyone is desparate, but I think I’d settle for Ed Sprague at this point. Or even Peter Sprague.

What Next?

Last month we identified keeping Dave Roberts and Woody Williams healthy as priorities. Both stayed healthy and made solid contributions. Unfortunately they weren’t enough to overcome a lot of bad pitching.

The club obviously could use help at third base (in the sense that I could use help getting to the moon), but with most of the available options being snatched up already, it’s difficult to maintain optimism on that front. Anything is possible, of course, and teams aren’t as wary of making waiver deals as they once were, but I’m not holding my breath.

Even though something really stinks.

The good news is that, thanks to an increasingly indifferent NL West, the Padres didn’t lose any ground in July. Once again, this isn’t going to be a pretty stretch run by anyone’s standards.

But as much as I appreciate aesthetics, I appreciate winning even more. As we said last season, someone’s got to win the division and it might as well be the Padres.