Friday Links (21 Jul 06)
Fri, Jul 21, 2006
by Geoff Young
I’ll be flying my freak flag at Comic-Con this weekend, so forgive me if I’m not able to participate in the festivities as much as usual. Meantime, bring on the links!
- July Trade Rumors (of course) (Brew Crew Ball). One of the alleged possibilites to replace the recently departed Vinny Castilla is Milwaukee’s Bill Hall. Others are, well, pretty much everyone out there. With the way Atlanta is playing right now, I’m not sure Wilson Betemit is still on the market. I like the Morgan Ensberg idea, assuming he finds health and the Astros are content to play Aubrey Huff at third. Shea Hillenbrand, just DFA’d by the Blue Jays, might not be a bad idea either — he’s being portrayed as a malcontent, but my guess is there was more going on in Toronto than we’re being told. Still, I don’t know if he legitimately can play third base on a regular basis. The Padres don’t seem so sure either.
- Rich Burk, broadcaster for the Triple-A Portland Beavers, has a couple audio interviews ups with Kevin Towers and Grady Fuson. I haven’t had a chance to listen to these yet, but longtime reader LynchMob says they’re worthy, and if they’re good enough for him, they’re good enough for me.
- Checking in on the Eastern and Southern Leagues (Hardball Times). This one’s a little old, but I just wanted to point out that George Kottaras was recognized as Southern League “All Star Most Likely to Succeed.”
- NL Midseason Report Cards (Yahoo!). SI.com’s John Donovan gives the Padres a B, which sounds exactly right to me.
- Youth Will Be Served (Baseball Crank). The Crank notes the “massive youth movement sweeping baseball” and calls out the Padres’ Josh Barfield and Adrian Gonzalez.
- Win Probability Added is all the rage. David Pinto questions its value in certain contexts. Engaging discussion ensues.
- Examining the Relief of Relieving (Hardball Times). Steve Treder attempts to answer the question: “Which task is more difficult for pitchers to master: starting or relieving?”
- Bowden 1, Krivsky 0 (Hardball Times). The Nationals completely fleeced the Reds last week. Can anyone remember a trade this bad? Also, why couldn’t the Padres get in on this one? I’m sure the fans of 28 other teams are asking themselves the same question.
- All-Star Game of Spyware (McAfee Site Advisor). From the article: “Barry Bonds, Derek Jeter, and Albert Pujols are household names for any baseball fanatic… Searching for screensavers for Bonds, Jeter or Pujols and clicking on one of the results will give a PC a .600 Earned Risk Average (ERA) — in other words, a 60% chance of landing at a risky site.” This is serious stuff, but I have to ask: How is Bonds second to Colorado’s Josh Fogg? [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Baseball Musings for this one.]
There it is. Happy Friday, everyone, and go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 21, 2006 at 9:25 am
I really hate spending this much time sitting here and talking about a trade that I really think has ZERO validity but I’m a retard and I can’t help it. Just looked at some numbers this morning that I thought might interest some people.
I decided to compare Adrian Beltre to Scott Rolen because I think Rolen is pretty much considered the best vetran 3rd baseman around and he makes about the same money as Beltre. I just took all their numbers and averaged them out to one per year line.
Rolen = BA .286 Slg% .518 OB% .377 Field% .967 HR. 20 RBI. 76
Beltre= BA .270 Slg% .451 OB% .327 Field% .954 HR. 20 RBI. 70
So I obviously Rolen holds an edge but it’s not as big as I would have thought. Beltre does however play and avg. of 135 games per year over his career while only plays in 111.
I’m still not saying I’m for or against that trade but I thought the numbers were interesting to look at because I don’t think many people (Including me) would be mad about paying that kind of money to a guy like Rolen.
July 21, 2006 at 9:40 am
Guys — check this rumor out, courtesy of Jayson Stark:
Brian, NY: Last night Buster Olney reported that the Sox were talking about dealing Mike Lowell for pitching? Any news on this front, or any other Sox ventures at the deadline?
Jayson Stark: They’re definitely seeing what they can get for Lowell. But this talk about him going to San Diego for Peavy, one for one, is a stretch. My understanding is that they’ve talked but they haven’t found a good match for both teams, so they’ve actually been looking for a third team to see if that can make it work. There’s some smoke there, but no fire yet.
July 21, 2006 at 9:42 am
Trade deadline rumors can be crazy. Apparently a rumor going around in Boston is the Sox are trying to trade Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy. Nice try guys. Jayson Stark says there has been talk between the two teams involving Lowell but the Sox want starting pitching and they may get a thrid team involved to make it work. I think this one is even less likely than Beltre but crazy things can happen.
July 21, 2006 at 9:46 am
That’s one of the stupidest trade rumors I’ve ever heard.
July 21, 2006 at 9:47 am
Lowell for Peavy — that’s freakin’ hilarious. So, what’s in it for us?
July 21, 2006 at 10:07 am
Lowell for Peavy is ridiculous. ANY trade involving Peavy is crazy.
Sounds like they’re trying to get a third team involved.
July 21, 2006 at 10:10 am
Olney indicated in his blog today that there was talk between the two teams swapping a SP for Lowell, but they have cooled a bit.
July 21, 2006 at 10:27 am
The apparent disdain for Hillenbrand and the apparent love for Beltre expressed by the Padres front office is baffling. Let’s look at their OPSs by season for the past 4+ years:
Year Beltre Hillen
2002 .729 .789
2003 .714 .782
2004 1.017 .812
2005 .716 .792
2006 .724 .822
Erm…what am I missing? Admittedly it’s only one stat to look at but why on earth would the Padres even consider obtaining a $7MM (or more) power position guy who’s signed through 2009 who has had an OPS above .730 once in the past 4+ seasons? Especially when they can get a guy who (a) has a lower salary (b) will not require as much in return from a trade and, most importantly, (c) has been consistently better over four and a half years?
Oh, I know why — Hillenbrand is “bad in the clubhouse”. Well, if that turns out to be true (personally, I think he’d be thrilled to be playing MUCH nearer to his recently-adopted daughter living in LA), then let him go after the season. Instead, are we hoping that the magical waters of San Diego can somehow rehabilitate Beltre back to his 2004 level? This deal needs to have a little more on it than pinning its hopes on “a change of scenery”.
After years (decades, actually) of small-market complaining about payroll, here is an opportunity where cheaper is almost certainly better and yet it’s “scoffed at”. This organization continues to confound me.
July 21, 2006 at 10:33 am
Brian…you are forgetting one important piece of the hot corner…defense…
Beltre picks it over there…Shea, well, let’s just say not so much. His fielding % is very poor, has average to below average range, and has a below average arm.
July 21, 2006 at 10:40 am
In an unrelated note, I’m going to see the Bay Bears tonight. I’ll report back on anything interesting I see.
July 21, 2006 at 10:41 am
I agree with Coronado Mike.
Shea is not exactly a 3B. He wasn’t so hot in Arizona there either.
Plus, his numbers might be due to his DH status as well.
Having said that, a 3 month rent of Shea may not be a bad thing.
This article, though, if true, is troubling due to the circumstances.
http://www.sportsline.com/print/mlb/story/9563979
I’d rather try out Shea than trade for Beltre now and having the Padres locked up in that lengthy contract. Unless, we are all pretty sure that none of the 3B in the minors are any good at all.
July 21, 2006 at 10:41 am
what about
O’s: Rodrigo Lopez, prospect from BOS
Red Sox: prospect from SD
Padres: Mike Lowell
July 21, 2006 at 10:50 am
Oh, I’m not big on Lowell either. I saw his hitting chart and thought, he may be able to make it in Petco but LF in Petco is bigger than Fenway. That should would cut down a lot on his power.
Looking back at his Florida days, his charts look similar. I’m not sure Lowell will be that successful in Petco. He’s not that great playing in NL West parks, either.
July 21, 2006 at 10:51 am
Hey Geoff (others), off topic question: Is ComicCom worth it? I got two kids, 12 - 11, we watch a lot of cartoons and are fans of the good ones. But CC seems expensive. Is it worth the $$$? Would my near teen kids enjoy wondering around? Is the swag good? My daughter is big into Anime. We were thinking of going Sunday when the entry price is cheaper.
Thanks
PM
July 21, 2006 at 10:55 am
Ryguy, sounds like a good trade to me!
July 21, 2006 at 10:57 am
But Mike, the stated reason for acquiring a 3B was to increase their offense. Beltre would be a small but extremely expensive improvement. Hillenbrand would be (if he keeps to his career averages) a cheaper and even greater offensive improvement.
We tried the good-field, little-hit style of 3B with Castilla and that didn’t exactly work out (admittedly, Beltre is a bit of an improvement offensively from Vinny). Plus, no one is comparing either Blum (OPS .650) or Bellhorn (.712, Beltre-esque, I dare say) to Brooks Robinson but they’re okay because they’re not allegedly ‘bad in the clubhouse’?
July 21, 2006 at 10:59 am
The Hillenbrand thing in Toronto is ugly. I don’t think it’s Gibbons, I think it’s Hillenbrand. Sounds like he’s a supercompetitive guy that hasn’t been happy with his PT for 2 years.
He alienated some of his teammates, and got on the wrong side of management.
He’d be OK for a few mos, but I definitely would not want the guy long term. I think the Pads could do better.
July 21, 2006 at 11:03 am
Also, I think it’s real funny that many papers still link Joe Randa to San Diego even though I think most of us here know there’s a really low shot at that happening.
July 21, 2006 at 11:06 am
Another story on Hillenbrand, from one of the papers in Toronto:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....1/TPStory/
July 21, 2006 at 11:36 am
PM: Comic-Con has been around for a while and it’s one of the first one that made aware lots of Anime to the states.
Some of the more famous artists have come through San Diego via the Comic-Con.
Here’s a schedule for the Anime programs this year:
http://www.comic-con.org/cci/cci_anime_fri.shtml
I heard that the one of the Final Fantasy guys is showing up this year. Amano, I think. Sunday is a little slower generally and not quite the zoo that is Friday and Saturday. But those two days are generally pretty packed with programs. There’s also movies showing. And the Anime exhibitors have been increasing their presence over the last few years. Tokyo Pop and Viz, being a couple of the big ones.
Hope this helps, PM. Have fun at the Con. Bear in mind that some people likes to don costumes. Some are on the more risque side with both non-Anime and Anime charecters. While these are not the majority of the attendees, they do exist and one can run into them anytime. Just don’t be shocked is all I’m saying, when a meeting takes place.
July 21, 2006 at 11:38 am
Sorry, PM. Wrong link. That was just the movie schedule.
Here’s the Anime page:
http://www.comic-con.org/cci/cci_anime.shtml
July 21, 2006 at 11:45 am
I don’t think the Padres have much interest in Shea. Yeah he can swing the bat, but I agree with those who have already posted, I think the Padres are trying to upgrade the offense while maintaining the defensive level from Vinny. Beltre, Crede and Ensberg would meet those requirements, Shea would not. Bellhorn, if given the same PT, would be just as effective as Hillenbrand imo. Since Beltre is still young and entering his prime, I would be willing to give him a shot for the remainder of his contract if we can get the annual salary down to 6-8/yr. Not sure what it would take to convince Seattle to go that far though. If one puts much stock in Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Beltre is projected at a .280+ EQA for the next five years which is splitting the difference between his track record and his 04 season. I would take that, but then again who’s the real Beltre? That’s the obvious elephant in the room in this scenario.
July 21, 2006 at 12:12 pm
If you look at his numbers I think “The real Beltre” is a pretty good 3rd baseman that got a huge contract after a crazy year. The only thing I can think of is maybe the Padres are willing to overpay a lot for a young guy entering his prime that will give them great defense and solid offensive production. Outside of 2004 his numbers have been pretty consistant. I don’t think it would be an issue really if we didn’t have Klesko, Woody or Chan Ho on the books this year.
July 21, 2006 at 12:35 pm
Look at Beltre’s home - road splits. He is a much better hitter away from Safeco. Hillenbrand is stupid for us. He’s horrible defensively (he’s only played like 15 games there this year), as many have stated. Beltre, if we get him for a bit of a discount would be a great deal, but I really don’t see it happening. Seattle, for one, is still in the race! Why would they be in on Soriano only to trade Beltre? I say we make any trade we can with Boston. We always come out smelling like roses!
July 21, 2006 at 12:39 pm
Dave Roberts and George Kottaras to Milwaukee for
Bill Hall and….Anthony Gwynn Jr!!!
Do it, do it now.
July 21, 2006 at 12:40 pm
I don’t want any part of Lowell. It seems like the Red Sox are trying to get max value out of a player that has over-produced their expectations!
July 21, 2006 at 12:56 pm
I would feel bad for Tony Jr if he got traded to SD, talk about pressure if he doesn’t hit .398 his rookie year SD fans would wonder whats wrong.
Lowell would be a nice add if the pads can get him for a mid level prospect or like a cassidy or sweeny.
I think Shea may keep his mouth shut for the rest of the year but he is not great at 3B.
Beltre would be nice if the mariners took half of his contract.
I have a feeling that nothing will get done and in a panic move on july 31 the padres will get david bell or joe randa.
July 21, 2006 at 1:00 pm
Why even pick up someone like Bell or Randa when we can just keep Bellhorn over there. He isn’t worse than either of those two and at least he has a little bit of pop in his bat. We would be giving away a prospect or player for ZERO return.
July 21, 2006 at 1:06 pm
Thanks, Didi.
July 21, 2006 at 1:07 pm
Im not say its what I want I’m just saying what I think will happen.
July 21, 2006 at 2:03 pm
Just saw on SignonSD.com that Sledge and Leone got called up from Portland. No mention of who went down, although they speculate that it’s going to be Sweeney and Thompson.
July 21, 2006 at 2:17 pm
While Leone may not be the long term answer at third (and who knows, maybe he will surprise us all), he can’t be any worse than Vinny (at least offensively). It does give KT more time to find the right fit for the long term.
Terrmel has a lot of upside, but has not performed well in the past. Does this mean they plan to send Johnson back to Portland for at bats for awhile?
July 21, 2006 at 2:18 pm
or…. could EY be gone after Johnson comes back from the DL?
July 21, 2006 at 5:28 pm
I’m not actually advocating in favor of Shea as much as I am fearfully opposed to tying up $15-20+MM in a guy who has had one great year and four mediocre ones in the last five seasons.
Maybe this will illuminate my point — Compare OPS of Beltre and a MYSTERY third baseman…
Year Beltre Mystery
2002 .729 .767
2003 .714 .800
2004 1.017 .751
2005 .716 .698
2006 .724 .722
The mystery 3B is Joe Randa. That .698 OPS is just from his time in San Diego. Otherwise he was at .787.
The notion of tying up $20MM for Beltre is loopy. Which is the more likely true indicator of his ability — the 1,700 ABs with an OPS of .720 or the 600 with an OPS of 1.000?
July 22, 2006 at 9:20 am
By EQA…
Year Beltre Randa
2002 .258 .256
2003 .248 .265
2004 .332 .254
2005 .249 .288 (Cin)/.249 (SD)
2006 .251 .244
I think that paints a slightly clearer picture as it’s adjusted for park.