Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

We’ve covered the individual players, but how about the team? How have the Padres done through the first half of 2006? Executive summary: The pitching has been better than anticipated and the offense has been pretty much about what we expected. With the exception of third base, there aren’t any glaring weaknesses on this ballclub.

The front office once again has done a terrific job of assembling a strong bullpen on the cheap. Pitching coach Darren Balsley and his staff also deserve kudos for getting the most out of guys that other teams really didn’t want. The turnarounds of Chan Ho Park and Woody Williams have taken everyone by surprise, and Chris Young has emerged as a solid #2 starter. If Jake Peavy can be a little more efficient and get back to his usual form, this pitching staff could make life very difficult for opponents in the second half.

The defense, particularly in the outfield and at first base, is much improved over last year. Mike Cameron in center field makes everyone around him better, as does Adrian Gonzalez at first base. Josh Barfield brings more athleticism up the middle than did his predecessor, Mark Loretta.

Offensively, although Petco Park continues to stifle scoring (#30 out of 30 for the second year running), it hasn’t been as stingy with the home runs as during the first two seasons there. This may be due in part to new buildings that are being constructed around the ballpark and causing wind currents to shift. Whatever the reason, the Padres went into the All-Star break with four players having double-digit homer totals, which is a mighty rare occurrence in these parts.

All wasn’t roses, however, as hitting coach Dave Magadan was replaced by Merv Rettenmund in June. It’s too soon to tell what kind of impact this will have on the club, but at the very least Khalil Greene has brought his batting average up to a semi-respectable .248.

Before the season I pegged the Padres at 80 wins. It appears that I, as have many others, underestimated this club. For the Pads to win 80 games, they’ll need to go 32-42 the rest of the way. Anything is possible, of course, but if the Padres stay reasonably healthy, I don’t see that happening. I’m revising my prediction upward to 85 wins, and even that may be conservative. Their performance in the first half of 2006 wasn’t a fluke. This is a team that plays well together and looks prepared to win the division.

Again.

Grade: B

If there were any doubts as to whether Brian Giles‘ power outage last year was a fluke or the beginning of his decline, those have been removed. He simply does not hit home runs anymore and it would be unreasonable to expect otherwise.

Although his slugging numbers are extremely low (.372 SLG, .103 ISO) for a corner outfielder, Giles continues to add value in other areas. On offense he still draws walks and makes pitchers work, and nobody goes harder into second base trying to break up a double play.

In the field, Giles gets the absolute most out of his abilities. He isn’t particularly fast but has a quick first step and generally takes good routes to the ball. He doesn’t have a real strong arm but he’s usually in position to make a throw, gets rid of the ball quickly, and maintains a low trajectory on his throws. Giles doesn’t dazzle with skills, but his fundamentals are strong and he keeps mental and physical errors to a minimum.

The biggest obstacle in judging Giles as a player is his past performance. He is no longer a power hitter, or the elite offensive force he once was. If you can get past that, you’ll find a guy who still does plenty for a ballclub.

Grade: B-

I hope you’re good and comfortable. I’ve got three of these bad boys to crank out tonight.

Not since Steve Finley called Qualcomm Stadium home in the championship season of 1998 have the Padres had such a capable defender in center field. [Update: Vinay Kumar reminds me that Ruben Rivera, despite his numerous faults, was a spectacular defensive center fielder.] Mark Kotsay was well above average at the position, but Mike Cameron is operating on an entirely different level. He almost never gets a bad jump and covers a staggering amount of ground. His range helps takes pressure off the corner outfielders, increasing their effectiveness in the process.

On offense, Cameron doesn’t hit for a high average and he strikes out too much for some folks’ tastes, but he does draw walks and — despite showing very little power early in the season after recovering from a strained left oblique muscle incurred at the end of spring training — he is capable of hitting the ball a long way, to any part of the park. Cameron has hit 9 of his 10 home runs since June 1 and is batting .279/.374/.571 during that same stretch of 35 games.

Once on the basepaths, Cameron can be a disruptive force. In addition to stealing bases at a high percentage, Cameron is adept at taking the extra base and generally runs extremely well. I’ve heard more than one person note this year that he has his “normal fast” and then he has another gear that most guys don’t possess. It’s nothing I can quantify, but you’ll know it when you see it.

After watching center fielders who were overmatched by Petco Park’s vast expanses during its first two seasons of operation, it’s comforting to see Cameron and know that if the ball is hit in his general direction, it’s probably an out.

Grade: B+

In moving from center field to left, Dave Roberts has gone from a below-average defender to one of the best at his position according to some metrics. The visual evidence supports this, as he is able to cover a lot of ground in the much smaller left field and his weak arm isn’t as much of a negative since most throws are shorter.

At the plate, Roberts has proven that last season’s unexpected outburst wasn’t a fluke. He continues to get on base at a good, not great clip (.364) and is able to drive the ball when needed. Also, Roberts makes pitchers work fairly hard, averaging 3.99 P/PA in the first half. In addition, he always keeps the defense on its toes with his bunting and baserunning ability.

When Roberts went down with a knee injury in mid-June, Ben Johnson proved more than capable of patrolling left field in his absence. Johnson produced on offense, flashing some of the power that once had made him a top prospect. In the field, he didn’t cover as much ground as Roberts but made up for that with a right-fielder’s arm.

The only blemish on left field so far in 2006 has been the play of Eric Young, who by all accounts is a great clubhouse presence but who, unfortunately, has little to offer at the plate or in the field. His only real tool at this stage in his career is speed, and most teams nowadays can’t afford the luxury of carrying a pinch runner on the roster.

Grade: B

As has been the case since he first came up to the big leagues, Khalil Greene‘s play in the first half of 2006 was good but inconsistent. Although he showed improved patience and power at the plate, Greene also struggled to keep his batting average above the Mendoza Line. A late surge (.438/.486/.719 in 32 AB this month) has given him some breathing room in that area — perhaps one of the fruits of new hitting coach Merv Rettenmund’s efforts?

Greene’s walk rate (.095) is just about where it was in 2004, and his AB/HR continues to improve (25.9 this year, compared to 29.1 in 2005 and 32.3 in 2004). Basically Greene has built on the power gains he made last season and re-established the plate discipline he had two years ago and lost last season. [Update: Richard Wade points out that Greene is drawing more unintentional walks this year than he did in 2004] He leads NL shortstops in home runs and RBI. He’s third in SLG but that’s mainly because his batting average is so low. Greene actually leads in ISO (.190). He’s also in the top 5 in SEC and P/PA.

On defense, Greene has been more reliable than ever. He doesn’t seem to make as many highlight reel plays as he used to — or maybe I’ve become desensitized — but this is one aspect of his game that has grown more consistent. Some of this can be attributed to his having a legitimate first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez, and some to Greene’s own development as a player. He is making the transition from spectacular to steady. The downside is that Greene’s range factor continues to drop and has, in fact, plummeted to the bottom of the pack, below that of even Derek Jeter. I don’t know that this is cause for panic, but it certainly isn’t very aesthetically pleasing.

Bottom line? If Greene can continue along the path to consistency, we could be in for a treat. As it stands now, we’ve got one of the better shortstops in the game playing here. He tantalizes with glimpses of even greater things. Whether those ultimately will be displayed on a more regular basis remains to be seen.

Grade: B

Apologies for the continued absence of comments, archives, etc. I’m banging on as many doors as possible but to little effect. It’s really weird not being able to hear what you guys have to say about stuff. And when I say “it’s really weird” I mean it stinks. I have no idea when things will be fixed, but I’ve got a contingency plan ready for Friday’s IGD if needed. It won’t be pretty, but MacGyver would be proud.

Anyway, time to fire up some Cocteau Twins and settle into rant mode…

There is no sugarcoating this one: Vinny Castilla has been a disaster in every way imaginable. He doesn’t walk, he doesn’t hit for batting average, and his power is gone. Castilla’s line this year is .232/.261/.321 in 246 at-bats. As a point of reference, Rey Ordonez hit .254/.292/.324 in 460 at-bats in 2002.

Castilla has the lowest P/PA (3.01) among the 202 big-leaguers this year with 250 or more plate appearances. Only Clint Barmes, Angel Berroa, and Yadier Molina have posted a lower RC/27 than Castilla (2.61). Although Castilla’s hyperaggressive approach may have worked in the past, it clearly is not working now. An adjustment would seem to be in order, but if it hasn’t happened yet, who’s to say it ever will?

On defense, Castilla still displays sure hands and a true arm, but whatever range he once had is gone. He’s better than Joe Randa, and that’s about as backhanded a compliment as I’ll pay someone.

Castilla seems like a really nice guy, but right now he is taking up valuable space on a big-league roster that would be better occupied by just about anyone with a pulse. He is a luxury the Padres cannot afford.

Mark Bellhorn and Geoff Blum have seen some action at the hot corner, but neither has made a great impression in limited duty. We’ve mentioned Justin Leone and Paul McAnulty as possibilities, but this more accurately reflects the desparate nature of the situation than any genuine belief that either of them is the answer.

Aubrey Huff has been plucked from Tampa Bay by the Astros, but there are other names out there still. A few Ducksnorts readers have suggested setting up a lemonade stand outside Petco Park to help the Padres raise enough money to trade for a big-league third baseman. It’s a worthy cause, but if it doesn’t work, I stand by my offer to play third base for food.

I may not be able to handle the position, but I’m pretty sure I can eat.

Grade: F

For a kid who never had faced big-league pitching before the season began, Josh Barfield has acquitted himself well. Like Adrian Gonzalez, he hasn’t shown a lot of patience at the plate — Barfield’s walk rate is about the same as that of the Astros’ Preston Wilson — nor has he been able to generate any offense at home (.212/.257/.269 in 156 AB).

But overall, Barfield’s batting average is near .300 and he’s knocking a decent number of extra-base hits. In fact, his H/XBH this year is slightly higher (.259) than it was last year at Triple-A Portland (.256). Always good to see numbers hold steady on moving up a level.

Barfield also has shown excellent instincts on the basepaths — the stolen bases are great, but beyond that, he constantly is looking for ways to put pressure on the defense. Several times this season he’s taken opponents (and in at least one case, the home plate umpire) by surprise with his exploits.

In the field, Barfield has been better than advertised. He moves very well — especially to his left, has a strong arm, and is much smoother turning the double play than he was just a few years ago. Barfield is relying a lot on his athleticism at this point but, like Gonzalez, he’s a smart kid who has shown the ability to make adjustments when needed.

The fact that Bruce Bochy keeps putting his name in the lineup every day speaks volumes about Barfield. There is plenty of untapped potential here, and it will be fun to watch him continue to develop.

Grade: B-