I was working on something a bit more ambitious this morning, but it doesn’t appear to be ready — and between you and me, I’m not sure it ever will be. So instead, with the Padres in New York for three, and one of the big stories (at least from a certain city’s point of view) being the return of Mike Piazza to the Big Apple, I figured now might be a good time to start thinking about next year’s catching options.
Not that we can do anything about it, of course, but it’s always fun to play along at home. First I’ll throw out the tale of the tape, then I’ll offer my thoughts (such as they are), and then you’ll offer yours. And we’ll just keep doing that until the IGD magically appears this afternoon.
To the contenders:
| Name | Age* | Level | AB | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Piazza | 38 | MLB | 276 | .297 | .354 | .525 |
| Josh Bard | 29 | MLB | 171 | .327 | .400 | .515 |
| Rob Bowen | 26 | MLB | 65 | .292 | .405 | .462 |
| George Kottaras | 24 | AA/AAA | 306 | .278 | .388 | .464 |
| Stats are through games of August 7, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN and Baseball America. | ||||||
*Age as of June 30, 2007.
Mike Piazza
Piazza’s offense and defense have been better than advertised this year. We were led to believe that he didn’t have much left in the tank, but an 879 OPS would indicated otherwise. We were told that he couldn’t withstand the rigors of catching and that even if he could, he was no great shakes behind the plate. But with careful usage by Bruce Bochy, himself a former big-league backstop, Piazza has held up quite well. And the defensive issues have been overblown by folks who think a catcher’s arm is the only way to judge how well he plays the position. In most other aspects, Piazza’s been just fine back there.
Piazza and the Padres have an $8M mutual option for 2007. Despite all the praise I just heaped on him in the preceding paragraph, and intending no disrespect, I don’t see how it would make sense for the Pads to exercise their option with so many other, um, options to fill the position next year. Piazza’s presence in San Diego has been tremendous, but I can’t justify bringing him back at that price.
Josh Bard
The contracts of Bard and Bowen are up at the end of the year, but I suspect neither will command a huge amount on the open market due to their limited track records. And I can’t imagine the Padres balking at a guaranteed deal with Bard, as they did with Miguel Olivo last winter. Bard’s overall game is much more polished than Olivo’s and the club seems to have confidence in Bard when he’s out there.
The downside to Bard, of course, is that there’s nothing in his minor-league background to foreshadow the offensive numbers he’s posting this year. It’s entirely possible that 2006 is a fluke and that he’ll regress to the mean. Then again, he could be another late-blooming catcher, a la Paul Lo Duca. I’m not sure what it would take for the Pads to re-sign him, and I’m not sure what I’d want to offer if I were them, but I do know I’d be pretty comfortable with him as the starter next year if Kottaras needs a little more seasoning.
Ryan Bowen
Bowen, as ever, remains intriguing. He’s relatively young and he has good plate discipline. He also can drive the ball on occasion. If only he could play third base.
But I digress.
The main issue with Bowen is that he’s largely untested. With Bard serving as Piazza’s primary backup this year, Bowen has been used mostly as Piazza’s designated pinch-runner/defensive replacement in late innings of games. Bowen has put up some nice numbers in limited time, but there’s a lot we don’t know about him. I’d love to see him come back next year, but it seems to me he’s at a point in his career where testing the waters might not be such a bad idea. He’s no worse an option for a big-league team that needs a catcher than Olivo was this past off-season.
George Kottaras
What can we say about Kottaras that hasn’t been said already? Offensively, he doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors. He controls the strike zone and drives the ball into the gaps, which is a nice combination. Defensively, by most accounts Kottaras isn’t quite there yet, and there are concerns about his size. He’s only played 14 games above Double-A, and he’s not exactly old, so there shouldn’t be any great hurry to bring him to the big club. That said, if all of the other options don’t work out, Kottaras probably could hold his own if needed. I’d prefer to see him back at Triple-A, at least for a while, but he’s close.
I guess when all is said and done, I’d want Bard as the starter in 2007, with Bowen (or someone else if Bowen walks) as backup. Stick Kottaras back at Portland to start the year, and if anything happens to Bard, bring up the kid and see what he can do.
Whatever the future holds, it’s a good situation to be in — and a far cry from the days of Wiki Gonzalez, Gary Bennett, et al.
That leaves us with one open question: What would you do?
how are B & B FAs with such limited ML service time?
any mention of Wiki should make us wary of Bard and Rob Bowen’s performances.
Great analysis GY. I have to admit, however, that the idea of Josh Bard at #1 on the depth chart is a bit worrisome to me. Assuming the Padres spend most of their offseason cash locking up youngsters (Khalil), overpaying for a SP or two, and maybe making a trade to pick up a 3B and his accompanying payroll, I would assume C would be a position the Padres are not particularly looking at to spend 6-10 million. That being said, and if my assumptions are true, we’re looking at pretty much the same lineup of position players next year. So my question is…is there a 3B out there who will replace Mike Piazza’s bat in our lineup (a legit #4 hitter), and will Bard have the same repoire with our pitching staff?
Granted, it’s been a really brutal year at the hot corner, but why not pick up Piazza’s option, retain Bard, pick up a serviceable 3B who will hit 6th or 7th, and whom you are not obligated beyond one year (perhaps Headley, Freese, Antonelli, et. al. will progress more quickly than we expect).
Just my 3.75 cents (adjusted for fuel surcharge).
Eric: Good question about FA status. They are both listed as under contract for 2006 but not beyond; it’s possible they will still be under club control — can anyone shed further light on this?
friarfan: Believe it or not, I think we may already have a legit #4 hitter. He plays first base. Gonzo is really more of a #3 hitter, but I don’t have a problem batting him cleanup if needed.
Piazza at $8MM is a no-brainer (on the negative side)…however, if he was willing to re-work that into a nice small raise (maybe to 2 or 2.5 for a year) would you keep him them with Bard backing up? What to do in that case with Bowen? Not sure I see the team going 3-headed monster again, but maybe they do if Kottaras needs a year at AAA…in other words, if not broke, why fix? And if MP is willing to re-work the $8MM, maybe it ain’t broke?
After this season Bard will have 3.133 years of MLB Service which I believe makes him arbitration eligible, but since he had limited playing time this year his good numbers may not get him a large settlement.
Bowen will have 1.102 years of service which gives the padres full control of him (although I’m not sure if the fact the pads acquired him off of waivers changes that).
KT on the Mighty XX mentioned that they had no intention on picking up Piazza’s $7mil option next year but that does not mean that they will try to re-sign him, but he also mentioned that he believed that if they could not re-sign Piazza then Bard would most likely be the every day catcher.
I think Piazza’s 07 salary rests again on his decision to catch or not. If he decides to go the DH route, there’s probably an AL club willing to do a 5 to 6 mil deal for a year. But if he continues to want to catch, even with his performance this year at the plate, I can’t see him getting more than what he made this year.
I seem to remember that both KT and Piazza confirmed that the Padres will not pick up Piazza’s option next year, as is. However, both also said (I think in separate articles) that if both decided that Piazza was wanted, which I have to assume is the case, they would find a way to work it out, ala EY, when the club paid the buy-out, then signed him to a new contract. From what I’ve read, Piazza’s happy here, he likes Bochy and the organization, feels like he’s a good fit and would find a way around the option, if it looked beneficial to both sides. I think we can sign him for less than the $8 million. Assuming that to be the case, I think we stand pat at catcher an let Kottaras have another year in the minors to work on the defense.
Clayton,
I think if they re-sing Piazza they would have to have 3 catcher unless they got a fick/nevin type guy who can play catcher along with several other positions.
WAG: until a young player signs a multi-year contract, their status is always referred to as one-year contracts, even though the clubs have control of him until his 6-yr FA status.
from my calculations this is the money that the pads have dedicated to 2007
Giles $9 mil
Cameron $7 mil
Hoffy $6.5 mil
Peavy $4.75 mil
Greene $2.5 mil (not sure about this kind of a shot in the dark)
Bard $1 mil (see above)
Linebrink $1.75 mil (if he is still here)
Young $0.6 mil
AGon $0.4 mil
Barfield $0.4 mil
Johnson $0.4 mil
Meredeth $0.4 mil
Hensley $0.4 mil
Sweeny $0.4 mil
Cassidy $0.4 mil
Thompson $0.4 mil
Bowen $0.4 mil
Adkins $0.4 mil
Sledge $0.4 mil (maybe?)
This fills 19 roster spots and will cost about $37.5 mil
which if the pads go with a $70 mil pay roll next year gives them plenty of money to build a bench, resign Piazza, sign a great 3B and Roberts if they decide that Johnson needs a year on the bench.
LaMar, as to 7, I think maybe they could renegotiate it and backload it so say 4M now and 4M in 08 when he’ll probably retire. remember Tony Gwynn was getting paychecks for a while after he retired. a lot of players backload their contracts but that hurts the team’s payroll flexibility.
I hope the pads dont back load any contracts because they will milk it for years to come. I can hear KT on the radio now “you know we would love to sign player X but we are still paying Piazza.”
Like FF, I am not sure about handing the job over to Bard next year. There is nothing in his track record to assume that his batting spike this year is real, unless you really want to subscribe to the “catchers as late-bloomers” school of thought. That being said, he has been remarkably consistent from month-to-month this season, except for August. Is that a product of smartly leveraging his playing time or a real improvement? Bard may very well be more productive splitting time than in a full-time role.
But it does sound like the Padres and Piazza are willing to get creative this off season. Mike knows he’s almost done, and I bet he would be willing to tear up his existing contract, and come back for another year under similar playing time conditions. Maybe all it would take would be to double his salary now? However, I would consider bringing him back up to $3-3.5M for a year, maybe even $4M.
Bruce,
Bard does a good job defensively and works well with the pitchers which is the main job of a catcher, as far as his plate production even if his average was .280 that’s still pretty good for a catcher, he has also shown that he has some pop and can handle pressure. You will never know if he can be an every day guy until he plays every day and with Bowen and Kottaras as a back up plan I think he should get a chance if the pads cant re-sign Piazza.
Not to pick on the guy, but he’s 28 and so far, outside of this season, he’s shown no ability to even hit .280. Maybe he really has turned the corner, but I have a hard time placing my faith in a player that is so wildly out producing even the most optimistic of projections. It screams fluke, and I worry where we will be next year if he pluments back to a more realistic level of production based on his career to date, with nothing more than Rob Bowen to fall back on. I would worry even more if we trade Kottaras for a third baseman, leaving no immediate catching help in the minors any closer than two years away (Hundley).
I agree this could be a fluke but if you look at FA options out there Piazza is the only catcher that I would want over Bard, and at least we know Bard can handle the pitching staff and is solid defensively. Also with the depth at Catcher in the Padres farm system I think the pads can take a gamble for a year.
I also agree that I dont think the pads should trade Kottaras for a 3B unless its a Kottaras for Fields/Crede or Marte deal.
Roger on that, Steve. I’d do Marte for Kottaras in a heartbeat. Not sure the Indians would though.
With Bard’s is-it-a-fluke-or-not risk, you have to sign Piazza, just not at the option price currently on the table. If he suddenly gets big dollar signs in his eyes based on his rejuvenation this year, we’ll lose him.
Either way, we need a true #4 hitter – I don’t believe A-Gon will put up 40HRs ever (hope I’m wrong), though I am giddily happy we seem to be all-of-a-sudden set at 1B for the next 10 years from out of basically nowhere.
Clayton,
I agree that the Indians would never make that deal im just saying if they put it on the table you would have to take it.
I also agree that it is important to re-sign Piazza becaue it would give bard another year to prove that this is not a fluke.
To Steve (re #10): I would give consideration to signing Greene and/or Gonzalez to a long term deal. If one or both are done that way, it could take a bigger bite out of the budget.
I also think it is premature to expect a 70 million payroll when attendance is down over 4,000 a game this year, and the team has been reliant on Petco revenues, including relatively high attendance, to establish higher payroll levels.
Fathers
I agree with you on a long term deal for Greene but im not sure what it would take to sign him. Agon will have 2 more years after this one before arbitration so I dont think that the pads will sign him before that.
Will the Padres realize the vicious circle of an 85 win team = declining fan interest = declining revenue = budget pressure = debt service excuse = unwillingness to add talent = 84 win team……..
Will we hear instead that most of the liberated money from Park/Klesko is being used to retain our own players and rebuild the farm, like we heard without results 8 years ago?
Or will we spend as wisely as we can in the free agent market and try to get into the 90 win bracket?
I think that it all depends on what happens at 3rd base. If we get a young guy then I would rather see Piazza back. If we can get a guy like Ensberg or Crede who have been around and proved themself I would be cool with bringing Bard and Bowen back for a year and waiting for Kottaras.
I definitely think they should give Kottaras a decent shot in spring training to win the job though like they did with Barfield if he is really our #1 prospect. If he’s not ready then send him down but at it would be nice to have a legit .300 hitting catcher.
If you add these players to my #10 post to complete the roster I think the pads can make a run. Let me know if you dissagree with the prices.
Piazza – $5 mil (If we can get him to stay for that price)
Work some kind of deal for Crede involving linebrink – $7mil (I think the Sox will trade him because they will not want to sign him to a long term deal with Fields in the farm system)
Embree – $1 mil (if he still has gas left in the tank)
Zito – $13 mil (3 aces on one staff)
Roberts – $3 mil (he wants to stay in SD)
Belhorn – $.75 mil (or blum i guess)
Aurillia – $1 mil (im bias im an Aurillia fan)
for a total of $68.25 mil
I mean $66.5 mil I forgot to subtract linebrinks salary
Steve that makes a lot of sense but I can’t see the Padres shelling out $13 million for anyone. They’ll try to ride Peavy & Young and 3 mediocre pitchers rather than go after Zito. I’d be very surprised if the payroll is over $60 million next year.
I’m a little worried about bringing Piazza back if it means carrying 3 catchers on the roster. It hasn’t been a huge problem this year but it’s obviously not an ideal situation.
The 1090 guys were just saying the Padres should trade for Aaron Boone because he’s a real third baseman and it would make the fans happy. I’m sure we’d all feel a lot better if we had another sub-.700 OPS infielder.
Anthony,
I agree that the pads wont pay Zito $13 im just saying they would have a great team under $70 mil if they made those moves.
I almost got sick when I heard Philly Billy talking about it was time to bring Boone to SD.
I dunno, I’d rather have a Boone/Walker platoon than Boone/Bellhorn.
Boone > Bellhorn in all aspects.
KT said on 1090 2 weeks ago that they will not pick up the option on Piazza…pay him the $500k buyout (bringing his guarenteed $$ for 2006 at $2mm) and then sign him at a similar rate ($2-3mm) for 2007.
Same interview, he said that they are planning on picking up Cameron at $7mm for 2007 and then will begin discussions on a long term deal at the end of the season.
And there is no way in H E double hockey sticks that Zito will be in SD for the 2007 campaign…expect us to add either Crede or Ensberg in the off-season…and DR either has to resign as a #4 outfileder or go bat leadoff for someone else…according to Towers, Ben Johnson will be a starter next season…
Oh yea, Kottarras does not seem to be ready yet…by all accounts.
I have watched him in the spring the past 2 years and he is not a legit, everyday MLB player…yet.
Carrying 3 catchers on the roster may not be ideal, but all 3 have been pretty productive. If Bowen got some time as a backup to 3B, 1B and perhaps the outfield, he could be nice 3rd string catcher/utility guy. If they decide they want to go with 3 again next year, I hope they give the 3rd guy some reps at other positions during spring training.
I also agree with many here about their concerns with Bard. He have never done much with the bat and he could be easily be a .220/8 HR catcher. If Kottaras was dealt in the offseason, I would be even more worried. The biggest issue I would have is if the Padres sign Bard to a 3 year deal to avoid arbitration. This seems like a very likely possibility with the way the team has functioned over the past few years. I can see them deciding that Piazza is too expensive for what they want to pay, so they let him walk and sign Bard to 3 years to avoid arbitration and commit to him. Then, they trade Kottaras since he is now “expendable.” If Piazza is gone, I’d bring back Bard to give him first crack at the starting role, but I hope they don’t sign him to a huge deal that they will regret.
Dann,
No way alderson lets KT sign Bard to a 3 year deal.
Well I take that back if they can get bard to sign a 3 year $3 mil deal I think it would be worth it.
If the Padres can sign Bard to a 3 year $3 mill deal, that’s a steal.
Remember, this is the guy that was originally in front of Victor Martinez with the Indians. They like his catching skills better than Martinez’s but Bard’s bat never came around. He seems to be hitting well. Is it a matter of being more mature, I don’t know.
I think is Bard ended up being a .250/11-15 HR catcher, I’d be happy as long as we get a legitimate 3B/power hitter to play the hot corner.
Will the Padres give Bowen a chance? I’d like to see Bowen gets regular back-up playing time a la Bard right now. He probably won’t cost too much in the open market.
Kottaras can stay in AAA another year and come up for September this year and next.
I’d love to have Zito in the Padres uniform. With his curveballs and our infield defense, those games would be pretty quick. Again, assuming 3B is solved in the off season.
As it is, right now, the season isn’t going to be decided by having a 3B like Boone the rest of the way. That’s crazy talk.
OK, that’s my dollar.
well said Didi
How is Kottaras not ready yet “by all accounts”?
The guy has nearly a 900 OPS in the PCL. His K:BB ratio could be a bit better but he’s only been there for 14 games. He had a nearly 1:1 K:BB in AA. In a proven pitcher’s park.
His power has blossomed this year. He’s hit 36 XBH in 85 hits, and done even better in Portland.
As for defense, (1) Bard and Bowen are hardly stellar, (2) I hardly trust scouts anymore on this stuff after the world insisted Josh Barfield would never play 2B in the majors.
Lastly, this junk about his being too small doesn’t make any logical sense. None.
I don’t know if he is ready or not, but the bat seems pretty there. Letting Piazza and others go is not the worst option.
Boone has a 3 point edge in EQA and has been a much worse fielder than Bellhorn at 3rd this year, although Boone’s usually been very good. Boone’s decent against LHP, but how long before Bochy plays him everyday because of his defense, leaving us right where we were before cutting Castilla?
A Boone/Walker platoon could be acceptable, but only if one of these happens:
1) It’s really a platoon, with Walker getting to hit RHP
2) A miracle occurs and Boone hits well enough that Bochy’s likely decision to start him full-time doesn’t hurt us, which is possible but not likely
If boone becines a padre who do they release, Blum or Belhorm?
Alan do you really want to hand the job over to Kottaras without ever seeing him play in the majors? I know it worked with Barfield but they had Belhorn, Blum, and EY as a back up plan.
sorry I didnt proof my last post.
“If boone becomes a padre who do they release, Blum or Belhorm?”
Alan says it well re: catchers. You get a big catcher and scouts talk about how he’s too clunky behind the dish, takes too long to get up and make throws, might wear down under his own bulk, isn’t athletic enough, blah blah blah. You get a smaller athletic catcher and he’s too little to take the pounding, doesn’t have the arm strength of a bigger player, might wear down because he doesn’t have any spare body, is getting by on athleticism instead of skill, blah blah blah.
Catchers who hit .280 with a .360 OBP and .440 SLG have a miraculous way of being good enough defensively. And even without illicit substances, players have a miraculous way of filling out when they get to eat a major league clubhouse spread and have an $80 per diem on the road.
Size-ism among scouts really irritates me. The Baseball Cube lists Kottaras at 6’0″ 180, is that an exagerration? When I saw him at Elsinore he looked a little short but no shorter than Tony Pena, listed at the same size. I tend to think a small frame would be an advantage at catcher because it means less wear and tear on the knees, and he’s going to be more nimble.
I’d be ok with resigning Piazza at a discount but I have a feeling he’ll go for big money from an AL club. The Yankees or Baltimore will throw a bunch of money at him.
I dont think Piazza wants to move back to the East Coast, It will probably be with the Angels or Mariners.
I saw Kottaras last year at Lake Elsinore and this spring at Peoria … he’s a small guy! 6′ 180? Nope!
I’m late to this thread, but I’ll still chip in with my opinion:
I think it would be a horrible mistake to both let Piazza walk *and* deal Kottaras. I just don’t have enough confidence that Bard/Bowen can keep this up long-term. I’m OK with letting Piazza walk if we keep Kottaras as a possible long-term solution. And I’m fine with signing Piazza for another year at a decent salary, and then using Kottaras to acquire a real solution at 3B or in the rotation.
It would be nice to give Bard and Bowen more ABs to find out what they can do, but I really can’t get behind that in such a close race. If this were 2003, I’d advocate Bard and Bowen getting 50% or more of the ABs.
I should add, I also think it could really backfire to sign Bard long-term. Yes, he’s arb-eligible, but as a backup catcher, he won’t get more than $1M or so (esp if the Padres still have Piazza at that point, or act publicly like they see Kottaras as the future and Bard as a backup). There’s no reason to pay Bard like a starter until we’re confident he can do it. Like others have said, it just reeks of the Wiki Gonzalez situation; the difference is that we have two other options now.