Brock2 Projections for Eight Rising Stars

by Geoff Young on Oct 22, 2002

Once again, I’ve been playing with Bill James’ Brock2 player projection system. Thought I’d take a look at some young, up-and-coming hitters and see what the future might hold for them. As always, bear in mind that even James acknowledged that this system is more of a toy than a tool. But it’s a heckuva lot of fun to play with.

So without further ado, here are eight players who were 25 or under this year and who have 400 or more big-league at-bats under their belts. The two sets of numbers are pretty self-explanatory (peak refers to age 27 season). I’ve also thrown in the name of a player who would compare well statistically if the projections hold true. General assumptions are that offensive levels will remain more-or-less constant over the next 15-20 years old, players are really the age they claim to be, and nobody will move from their current primary defensive position. YMMV…

                 2003         Peak         Comp
              AVG OBP SLG  AVG OBP SLG
Dunn,Ad       265 401 523  289 428 617  Brian Giles
Johnson,Ni    247 335 413  270 362 485  David Segui
Lopez,Fe      256 312 430  278 344 496  Miguel Tejada
Patterson,Co  248 275 385  282 320 461  Steve Finley
Pena,Ca       257 336 486  270 351 544  Shawn Green
Pujols,Al     329 405 609  350 431 702  Manny Ramirez
Soriano,Al    283 314 497  311 347 588  Jeff Kent
Wells,Ve      292 325 477  310 351 541  Preston Wilson

As long as we’re playing with stuff like this, let’s take a look at what Chris Reed over at ProspectReport has to say about the peak performance of this group of players (his numbers were generated before the 2002 season and use a different methodology):

  • Dunn: .307/.411/.690
  • Johnson: .284/.396/.502
  • Lopez: N/A
  • Patterson: .273/.317/.512
  • Pena: .270/.373/.547
  • Pujols: .346/.416/.652
  • Soriano: .291/.328/.488
  • Wells: N/A

Good article over at Baseball America on Tagg Bozied in the AFL. In case you’ve missed it, Bozied is now hitting .274/.357/.548 in 62 at-bats.

Finally, we’ve been bouncing some ideas around over at Fanstop on how to improve the Padres next year. One thought is to talk to the Rangers about San Diegan Hank Blalock, who may be available due to the presence of Mark Teixeira. Using the Carlos Pena deal (Texas received Jason Hart, Gerald Laird, Ryan Ludwick, and Mario Ramos for Pena and Mike Venafro) as a barometer, maybe something like Jake Gautreau, Dennis Tankersley, and Brett Tomko for Blalock and Laird might work? The idea is that Blalock would play second base, with Sean Burroughs returning to third, Ramon Vazquez to short, Phil Nevin to first, and Ryan Klesko to right. Something to ponder…

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