Once again, I’ve been playing with Bill James’ Brock2 player projection system. Thought I’d take a look at some young, up-and-coming hitters and see what the future might hold for them. As always, bear in mind that even James acknowledged that this system is more of a toy than a tool. But it’s a heckuva lot of fun to play with.
So without further ado, here are eight players who were 25 or under this year and who have 400 or more big-league at-bats under their belts. The two sets of numbers are pretty self-explanatory (peak refers to age 27 season). I’ve also thrown in the name of a player who would compare well statistically if the projections hold true. General assumptions are that offensive levels will remain more-or-less constant over the next 15-20 years old, players are really the age they claim to be, and nobody will move from their current primary defensive position. YMMV…
2003 Peak Comp AVG OBP SLG AVG OBP SLG Dunn,Ad 265 401 523 289 428 617 Brian Giles Johnson,Ni 247 335 413 270 362 485 David Segui Lopez,Fe 256 312 430 278 344 496 Miguel Tejada Patterson,Co 248 275 385 282 320 461 Steve Finley Pena,Ca 257 336 486 270 351 544 Shawn Green Pujols,Al 329 405 609 350 431 702 Manny Ramirez Soriano,Al 283 314 497 311 347 588 Jeff Kent Wells,Ve 292 325 477 310 351 541 Preston Wilson
As long as we’re playing with stuff like this, let’s take a look at what Chris Reed over at ProspectReport has to say about the peak performance of this group of players (his numbers were generated before the 2002 season and use a different methodology):
- Dunn: .307/.411/.690
- Johnson: .284/.396/.502
- Lopez: N/A
- Patterson: .273/.317/.512
- Pena: .270/.373/.547
- Pujols: .346/.416/.652
- Soriano: .291/.328/.488
- Wells: N/A
Good article over at Baseball America on Tagg Bozied in the AFL. In case you’ve missed it, Bozied is now hitting .274/.357/.548 in 62 at-bats.
Finally, we’ve been bouncing some ideas around over at Fanstop on how to improve the Padres next year. One thought is to talk to the Rangers about San Diegan Hank Blalock, who may be available due to the presence of Mark Teixeira. Using the Carlos Pena deal (Texas received Jason Hart, Gerald Laird, Ryan Ludwick, and Mario Ramos for Pena and Mike Venafro) as a barometer, maybe something like Jake Gautreau, Dennis Tankersley, and Brett Tomko for Blalock and Laird might work? The idea is that Blalock would play second base, with Sean Burroughs returning to third, Ramon Vazquez to short, Phil Nevin to first, and Ryan Klesko to right. Something to ponder…