Catching up on some stuff. As usual, Gary Huckabay over at Baseball Prospectus comes through with a fine column about the art and politics of evaluating talent.

ESPN has compiled a list of the top 50 free agents this off-season. Astute Padre fans will note that their club isn’t expected to be a player for any of them (sorry folks, Royce Clayton doesn’t count). I dunno, maybe they’ll outspend the Yankees for the services of Hideki Matsui.

Sorry ’bout that. Hope you weren’t drinking anything.

So, what would the Padres’ lineup look like if the season started today? Good question. The easy, trite answer is, not good. Unfortunately, the lengthy, in-depth answer ain’t much better. But what the heck, let’s see what we’ve got here.

Catcher

Wiki Gonzalez couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t contribute much even when he did. Tom Lampkin did a serviceable job in way more playing time than he should ever get. There isn’t much in the way of help in the high minors. Wil Nieves is a decent catch-and-throw guy but really isn’t more than a backup for a weak team. The best free agents available not named I-Rod are Sandy Alomar, Kevin Brown, Mike DiFelice, Jorge Fabregas, John Flaherty, Bill Haselman, Steve Lomasney, Adam Melhuse, Greg Myers, Eddie Perez, Todd Pratt, Matt Walbeck, and Chris Widger. Alomar, Flaherty, Myers, and Walbeck all have a Padre past. Alomar will be too expensive based on name recognition. Flaherty can actually catch some and had a pretty good run in his first go-round with the Pads. He might not be a bad option. Pratt is a better hitter but at age 35, he’s never had more than 173 at-bats in a season. He’s even more of a role player than Lampkin. The two guys on this list who intrigue me most, however, are Melhuse and Widger. I don’t know much about Melhuse other than he’s got a pretty good track record as a hitter in the minors. And Widger actually had a couple decent seasons as a starter in Montreal (including a 766 OPS in 1999). But realistically, even if Kevin Towers and company do make a move, there’s not a lot of cause for optimism here. Whoever occupies this spot will bat seventh or eighth.

First Base

This will be patrolled by Ryan Klesko or Phil Nevin, depending on what the Pads decide to do with Sean Burroughs. Whoever plays first will be in the heart of the order. If it’s Nevin, the Padres can only hope he stays healthy and returns to the form he displayed over 1999-2001.

Second Base

The next big question mark. Right now it’s looking like Ramon Vazquez. He had a terrific second half of 2002 offensively (.291/.359/.397) and he slots well at the top of the order. With good on-base skills and a year of big-league experience under his belt, he’s probably the Padres’ best option to lead off. If he somehow ends up at short, then this job could fall to someone like Cesar Crespo, Joe Lawrence, or (dare we hope?) Marcus Giles.

Third Base

Sean Burroughs? Phil Nevin? Let’s be honest, the Padres are aiming toward 2004. Sure, they could do what the Angels did this year and shock the hell out of everyone. But you don’t count on that sort of thing. Not if you’re smart, you don’t. Instead, you formulate a solid plan that puts you in good shape for 2004 and stick to it. Nevin, for all the good he has done in San Diego, is not the future at third base. And that means he really shouldn’t be the present there, either. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be. The talk now is that Burroughs will be handed the keys again and hopefully stay healthy and learn from his rookie season. Burroughs presumably will be back in the #6 hole. It will be interesting to see what effect new hitting coach Dave Magadan has on the youngster. Magadan’s approach is great for an organization that is trying to emphasize plate discipline across the board, but I wonder if it’s the best thing for a kid who already subscribes to that philosophy and who needs to work on driving and lifting the ball. That said, if Magadan is as smart as he appears to be in interviews and is good at passing his knowledge onto others, there’s little downside here. He was one of my favorite ballplayers of the past couple decades, and anything he brings to the table in terms of hitting expertise has to be positive.

Shortstop

By all rights, this job probably should belong to Vazquez. He is the best defensive shorstop the Padres have, and he’s also the best hitter. But there is a disturbing infatuation among some in the organization with Deivi Cruz, who lacks Vazquez’ range and hitting ability. That Cruz drew just 22 walks in over 530 at-bats last year is quite telling. Even more telling is the fact that those 22 walks represent a career high. Plain and simple, Cruz is a drag on any offense and, assuming a team can’t (or won’t) find better options, shouldn’t be batting higher than eighth in a lineup. That he might bat as high as seventh for the Padres in 2003 is a damning indictment of the club’s lack of depth behind the plate and in the middle infield in the high minors. What Padre fans really have to look forward to is the arrival of Khalil Greene, the club’s 2002 first-round pick who manhandled Cal League pitching in his pro debut. There has been some talk that Greene could be ready as early as the All-Star break but personally I’d hate to see that happen, even if he dominated Double-A. But that’s a very lengthy diatribe for another day. Meantime there is talk that the Pads might sign Royce Clayton, who would be a more expensive, better defensive version of Cruz. I guess maybe that would help Brian Lawrence. But it’s still not as good as sticking Vazquez at short and finding a second baseman either within the organization (Crespo?) or without (Lawrence? Giles?) These guys will be cheaper than Clayton and have possible upside. Anyway, I could go on about the middle infield situation for hours but nobody really wants that.

Left Field

Ray Lankford is gone, which leaves Bubba Trammell and possibly Xavier Nady. In a perfect world, Trammell would get about 300-350 plate appearances, mostly against southpaws (last year his OPS against them was 921, as opposed to 665 against righties; over the previous three seasons those numbers were 860 and 747, respectively). But in the Padres’ world, he’s probably going to see closer to the 450+ he’s gotten each of the past two years. And he won’t embarrass himself or the club in left field. But Trammell is really a guy better suited to being a cog in a contending machine, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him dealt at some point during the season, when teams are less likely to sweat over his contract. If that happens, the job will be Nady’s, assuming he can stay healthy. Short-term, Nady probably won’t put up numbers much better than Trammell, but long-term he’s got 35+ homer power. For 2003, whoever ends up with the left field job will bat fifth.

Center Field

Another bone of contention. Mark Kotsay has shown slow but steady progress as a hitter and does a good job in the field. He gets good jumps, tracks balls well, and has a strong and accurate arm. In other words, he’s pre-longball Steve Finley. He’s only 27 and there’s a good chance we haven’t seen his best yet. So what’s the problem? Well, it seems the Padres claimed a kid less than a year younger off waivers and he had 216 marginally palatable (725 OPS) at-bats in the second half of 2002. Now there is talk that this guy–call him Eugene Kingsale, because that’s his name–may push Kotsay to right field. Kotsay will do fine in right, where he played back in his days with the Marlins, but to move him to accommodate a mediocre fifth outfielder type mystifies me. Where do these guys bat? Kotsay is a logical candidate for the #2 hole. Kingsale I honestly can’t picture in a big-league lineup. I’m guessing that his speed will tempt the powers-that-be to stick him near the top of the lineup and let him suck up outs faster than you can say Tony Womack.

Right Field

This belongs to Klesko or Kotsay. My hope is that Klesko gets the job and that Kotsay stays in center.

The Lineup, Please

A few possible scenarios:

Best-Case

1. Vazquez ss
2. Kotsay cf
3. Klesko rf
4. Nevin 1b
5. Trammell lf
6. Burroughs 3b
7. Giles 2b
8. Widger c

Worst-Case

1. Kingsale cf
2. Kotsay rf
3. Klesko 1b
4. Nevin 3b
5. Nady lf
6. Vazquez 2b
7. Cruz/Clayton ss
8. Gonzalez c

Most Likely

1. Vazquez 2b
2. Kotsay cf
3. Klesko rf
4. Nevin 1b
5. Trammell lf
6. Burroughs 3b
7. Cruz ss
8. Gonzalez c

I don’t mean to be negative but that "best-case" scenario ain’t lookin’ real appetizing. Whatever ends up happening, one thing is clear: There’s going to be a lot of pressure on those young arms in ’03. We’ll take a look at the pitching next week.