This Date in Ducksnorts (22 Nov)
Wed, Nov 22, 2006
by Geoff Young
I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.
- Back from Arizona (2004). Trip to Arizona Fall League. Impressed by the Marlins’ Jeremy Hermida and the Suns’ Amare Stoudamire. Bought some sweet books, some of which I still have yet to read.
- Middle Infield Options and Orosco (2002). Wow, I’d forgotten just how long the Padres have been after Marcus Giles. What I said then: “My current optimal deal would be something like Tomko, Jeremy Fikac, and Eric Cyr for Giles and a second-tier prospect.” Francisco Cordova? Yeah, I guess he was a Friar for about 2 minutes.
That’s all for now. Go Padres!
Tunes: Oingo Boingo, Incubus.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 22, 2006 at 6:54 am
Best part of today’s post? When Geoff says that many people compare Jason Bay to Bubba Trammel.
November 22, 2006 at 7:09 am
I know I do.
November 22, 2006 at 7:26 am
I once compared Mike Piazza to a feminine hygiene product. Guess not all comparisons are equal.
November 22, 2006 at 7:57 am
Gaslampball.com has a recap of SA’s discussion over at XX yesterday.
Highlights are that we have had some discussions with Boston about Manny in exchange for a couple of relievers and a SS; Loretta is unlikely to return; while there was discussion about Bonds, it was more about what are our options, and he confirmed that Bonds will not be here next year; he doesn’t expect Piazza back; Roberts will likely not return since we are heading in another direction; and, he’s not going to spend money, just to spend it.
I’m guessing he wasn’t suggesting Matt Bush when he mentioned a SS. If we trade Khalil, we fill the left field spot, but have no one to fill the SS hole. Driving a truck through the gaping hole in the middle of the infield wouldn’t be a problem. I’m also betting that older, veteran “stop-gap” infielders would be the free agents de jour.
November 22, 2006 at 8:57 am
Did he say that they have had Man-Ram discussions? My mind is fuzzy.
November 22, 2006 at 9:09 am
I wonder if trading Khalil as part of a ManRam package might open up the possibility of trading Peavy for Tejada.
November 22, 2006 at 9:22 am
Re #6 I would trade peavy for tejada in a heart beat, tejada is signed through 09 and is only making 12 mil per year, which is a bargan when you look at how all the FA signings that are going this year.
November 22, 2006 at 9:24 am
Giles RF
Walker 2B
Tejada SS
Manny LF
Gonzalez 1B
Cameron CF
Bard C
Kouzmanoff 3B
That would probably fix the runs scored problem that the pads had last year.
November 22, 2006 at 9:54 am
re #8 - except for the leadoff guy, that’s a great lineup
I would absolutely do the trades listed in 4 (the Manny one before the ARod one) and 6. Every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Peavy for Tejada at $9M/yr? Done and Done.
November 22, 2006 at 10:04 am
Tejada is making $12 mil per
November 22, 2006 at 10:06 am
The line up worls with Giles leading off because he can get on base and wait for Tejada and Manny to bring him in, the pads would not have to play small ball if thier 3, 4, 5 & 6 guys all hit 20+ home runs.
November 22, 2006 at 10:17 am
No offense guys but I can’t see how Peavy is worth less then Tejada when you take salaries into account. Over the past 2 seasons Tejada has been worth about 2(8 wins over replacement level to 6 for Peavy) extra wins per season.
Over the next 3 seasons Peavy is going to be seriously underpaid and make 18.75M total (with incentives this could be around 22M)
Tejada is also also underpaid but not to the same extent over the next 3 seasons he is going to make 38M.
To me the question is-considering that Greene is a league average or better ss already and likely to improve and a realtive lack of starting pitching options available via either FA or the minor leagues-why make the deal which makes things much more complicated?
Would you rather have Peavy, Greene and 7M to spend per season over the next 3 seasons or
Tejada and whatever you can trade Greene for?
November 22, 2006 at 10:19 am
Re# 12 it would be assumed that Greene would be in the Manny deal.
November 22, 2006 at 10:23 am
I also think that because of the amount of quality starting pitching on the market this year you will see some of the price tags go down.
November 22, 2006 at 10:46 am
did leone opt for FA?
November 22, 2006 at 10:51 am
Hey everyone, check this out:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....mp;ATT=HMA
Former Pad G Matthews gets 5 yrs 50 million — good for him!
These contracts are nuts!
November 22, 2006 at 11:20 am
Quality starting pitching, like who? I can count only 5-10 guys who I’d even want the Padres to sign.
Zito
Schmidt
Lilly
Wolf
Pettitte
Clemens
Eaton
There are other interesting names, but I don’t see that many guys who I would think have a good chance of posting a sub 4.00 ERA.
November 22, 2006 at 11:22 am
How does Cameron’s $7 million look?
November 22, 2006 at 11:26 am
Mulder
Meche
Glaven
Hernandez
Madux
Mussina
Williams
Radke
All are quality starters
November 22, 2006 at 12:03 pm
So we’re counting guys who have already signed(Mussina, Hernandez) as well as guys who are hurt or retired(Radke, Mulder) and guys that have already stated they are only signing with 1-2 teams(Glavine) when Meche(who has been below average) is talking about 10M per year I don’t see this as a good market to be involved with.
November 22, 2006 at 12:03 pm
Kinda off topic, but kinda not: new Incubus album comes out in 6 days.
November 22, 2006 at 12:15 pm
Are you going to be listing other albums that we should stay away from, too?
Also off topic but not as much? Has anyone bothered to listen to XX at noon? High Noon Headlines? More like 3-day-old headlines. What a waste of an hour.
November 22, 2006 at 12:23 pm
Yeah high noon headlines for today included the note that USC was going to be playing Notre Dame this week-I hadn’t heard
November 22, 2006 at 12:50 pm
#4: I’m listening to a quickie replay of the Alderson conversation - thanks to High Noon Headlines (D’oh). He did not say that San Diego and Boston have had discussions about Ramirez. Werdnl said “a name that has popped up is Manny Ramirez” and Alderson proceeded to talk generally about Ramirez, saying he’d fit the bill of a desired power bat in LF. Now maybe the Manny talk continued beyond what they replayed, but I don’t remember him talking about Boston needing a SS.
November 22, 2006 at 1:01 pm
With the sudden ridiculous cost of mediocre outfielders, anyone think that perhaps we should give Klesko an incentive laden contract to run out to LF everyday?
November 22, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Re: 12…Mark, why would we assume that Greene is going to improve? He is older than Sean Burroughs…the guy is not a “Young Guy” in baseball terms anymore. He is an injury prone, average-below average SS with some pop.
November 22, 2006 at 1:20 pm
25 - he’s too much of a circus in LF. I would pay him to back up both AGon and whomever is the starting LF’er. If we get a righty LF, would provide a platoon option.
November 22, 2006 at 1:20 pm
To clarify my response to #4: The talk about Boston looking for a SS and relievers came from Darren Smith. Ever participate in the exercise Telephone?
26: Why are you skeptical? Greene isn’t even 32 yet (Gary Matthews Jr). If I may nitpick, there’s been some defensive metrics come out that consider Greene perhaps a little above average.
November 22, 2006 at 1:43 pm
#28. I didn’t hear the interview. As noted in my comments in #4, I was only passing on the summary provided by jbox at Gaslampball.com. I’m pretty sure my summary of the summary was accurate.
I was surprised that SA showed up on XX on Tuesday, since Wednesday is his usual interview day with XX. I know, I look forward to it all week.
After one interview, though, I sent Darren Smith an email and told him that I believed he was reading way more into the interview with SA than I think he said. I think that SA is very careful with his words and I think you’ve got to be really careful interpreting his comments.
November 22, 2006 at 2:29 pm
The Gaslamp summary: “Sandy was very coy and said that at some point the Red Sox may stop dealing with us because of how past trades worked out, BUT there is some talk of Manny Ramerez for relief pitchers and a shortstop.”
29: Your paraphrasing: “Highlights are that we have had some discussions with Boston about Manny in exchange for a couple of relievers and a SS.”
The talk about “a couple of relievers and a SS” came from Smith. You took Gaslamp’s misleading recap one step further by turning “There is some talk … ” - by the talk show hosts - into “we have had some discussions with Boston… .”
November 22, 2006 at 2:32 pm
Not trying to come off as Mr. Smartypants. Maybe the Pads and Sox are in trade talks, but that’s not what was said on the record. And obviously, Smith isn’t the only one to have read too much into an interview with Alderson. I’d say something on Gaslamp, but I already post too much here and other places.
November 22, 2006 at 2:43 pm
Re: 28…b/c there are many more metrics that say he is well below average…as I have mentioned in this forum before, Greene is simply Chris Gomez with some 8 more HR’s.
He is one guy that I would love to see moved.
November 22, 2006 at 3:37 pm
A lot of those same defensive metrics that show Greene as well below average also show every Padre as below average outside of Cameron and Roberts-which simply isn’t possible when they lead all of baseball in defensive effeciency.
I’m not sure there is a reliable defensive metric out there yet as defense is so dependent on other players, types of pitchers etc.
Plus if you trade Greene-who do you sign? Lugo at 4/32? There isn’t much else out there, certainly nobody else with the talent to post an .800 OPS
November 22, 2006 at 4:22 pm
Greene is much better than Chris Gomez with the bat. For this year, baseball prospectus has Greene has 5 runs above average, although for his career they have him below average. David Pinto’s PMR ratings have Greene as one of the top 8 defensive shortstops in baseball for this year. So there is some evidence that, this year at least, Greene was above average with the glove. His offense is also above average, even for a non-shortstop, and this year his BB rate was up from the previous year. He certainly hits better than Juan Pierre, who just signed for $45 million, so he does have a lot of value for the team during his pre-free agency years. Other options at shortstop would be significantly more expensive and a net downgrade. Alex Gonzalez of the .292 career OBP and (below?) average defense according to the metrics just signed for $15 million for three years.
November 22, 2006 at 5:00 pm
Green is easily an above average shorstop. He is better than two Chris Gomezes with the bat and the glove.
November 22, 2006 at 5:44 pm
Yeah, the guy is a great hitter, but I’d be disappointed if the Pads were even considering Manny. He is a constant complainer, has whined every year about wanting to be traded, “he quit” the last two months of the season and horsed around with teammates rather than trying to get back on the field (I’ll search for the article — ESPN or SI — in case anyone missed it ) and everyone was afraid to confront him. And his defense is worse than Klesko’s!
I guess we can say Greene is injury prone, but the injuries seem to be of a freakish nature rather than chronic. Nobody has a bad word to say about the guy, he gives you everything he has on every play, he’s inexpensive and he has some pop. If he can improve his eye and draw more walks, he’ll be a bargain for years. Personally, I’d hate to see even Manny for Greene straight up. But maybe that’s just Me being Me.
November 22, 2006 at 6:38 pm
Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe:
“Something went off in Manny’s head (not his knee, people) at the end of that series and he knocked in only two runs the rest of the season. He spent the final six weeks of the season goofing around with his teammates, making no effort to get back on the field, and telling his agent he wanted out of Boston. He drove his manager and his teammates crazy, but nobody would say anything. When Manny’s MRIs came back clean, the Sox called it patellar tendinitis, the same condition that allowed Manny to take his annual All-Star vacation.”
Shaughnessy also says that Theo has been trying to get rid of Manny since he took over as GM, so I can’t imagine Towers making the mistake of going after him.
http://www.boston.com/sports/b....._on_manny/
November 22, 2006 at 6:39 pm
Burrell hit .222 with runners in scoring position last year. Ouch.
November 22, 2006 at 7:15 pm
I would be disapointed if Burrell was the big name that the padres add, and I would hope the Philly’s would take most of his contract.
November 22, 2006 at 9:07 pm
Burrell’s RISP line in 05: .313/.429/.598
in 04: .263/.392/.361.
He’s not clutch, he’s clutch, he’s not clutch. Aaahh, which is it?
32: My eyes tell me Greene is solid at SS. I am fascinated by the defense metric stuff, but it seems like there are so many different ones out there. I did pick up “The Fielding Bible” awhile back. Dewan calls him a good defender who makes up for average range and arm with superb instincts and quick release. He also says he’s very smooth at turning two.
November 22, 2006 at 9:29 pm
36: I seem to recall someone saying Khalil’s not the sharpest tool in the shed…
November 22, 2006 at 9:57 pm
41: Hey, he graduated from Clemson! Anyway, we’re not asking him to learn a playbook, and I have to believe that in a straight up trade for Manny, the Pads would lose some IQ points.
November 22, 2006 at 10:16 pm
37, 42:
Ramirez’s head problems are well-publicized. Every team in the majors knows about them. But teams that have a big weakness, like the Padres and their power weakness, often take chances with players like Ramirez. Yes, the Padres may lose some IQ points in a Greene-Ramirez trade — I’m not saying they should do it — but it would be a steal of trade on the field, in the Padres favor.
November 22, 2006 at 11:51 pm
42: I wasn’t the one who said it. I only said that I seem to recall someone else saying it.