This Date in Ducksnorts (21 Nov)
Tue, Nov 21, 2006
by Geoff Young
I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.
- 2005 in Review - Shortstop (2005). The colors aren’t displaying in the tables — fixing that is on my to-do list — but you get the idea. Dudley’s and Jimmy Eat World still rock. Khalil Greene continues to confound.
- Ballpark Update, Mike Colangelo, and Rob Ramsay (2001). Ah, yes, this is when the city council approved financing for Petco Park.
That’s all for now. Go Padres!
Tunes: Dead Can Dance, Brothers Cazimero.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 21, 2006 at 6:15 am
The post yesterday about part I of “The Kevin Towers Story: A Very Special Hallmark Goldcrown Presentation” got me thinking about dealmaking in SD in general. I think you would have to argue that recent returns have been very positive. For the Bolts, the highlights:
The debacle of trading up to get a certain WSU QB who shall not be named back in 1998 has to be considered the absolute lowpoint. Since then:
- Trading out of the #1 spot in 2001 to get LT + picks instead of Vick (ironically, the news media keeps saying we got Brees in this deal, but if I’m remembering it correctly we drafted Brees with our own pick, not the Falcons’ pick.
-2 medium picks to Tampa for McCardell
- Little Manning for Rivers plus picks that turn into Keading, Oben and Merriman
I’m sure I’m missing some, but the Chargers have really hit some home runs lately.
November 21, 2006 at 7:24 am
Re: #1
Finding an undrafted free agent TE who did not play a snap of college football was a great move as well.
November 21, 2006 at 7:52 am
Yeah, since that technically wasn’t a trade, I didn’t include, but that may be the biggest home run from cost/benefit view. You also have to love the Chargers’ drafting under AJ Smith…since his whiff on Sammy Davis in round 1 in ‘03, he’s done a-ok:
2003:
- Scifres in Round 5
- Florence in Round 2
The ‘04 draft, which featured Rivers, was the biggest heist overall:
- Olshansky in Round 2
- Kaeding and Hardwick back-to-back in Round 3
- Phillips in Round 4
- Michael Turner in round 5
- Shane Olivea in Round 7
‘05 was not too shabby:
- Merriman and Castillo, franchise defenders, in round 1 (when do you see a team really take advantage of two #1s like that?)
- Vincent Jackson in round 2
- Darren Sproles in round 4
‘06 is looking good too:
- Cromartie looking solid, if young and inexperienced (which was expected); a good amount of PT for #1 pick CB
- McNeill an absolute STEAL in round 2
- Whitehurst in round 3, good potential multiyear backup
November 21, 2006 at 9:04 am
Dodgers sign Juan Pierre for 5 yrs, 45 million. 9 mil. a year for .330 OBP. Geez, what’s Dave Roberts worth? Crazy crazy market.
November 21, 2006 at 9:20 am
we should have locked up DR with an affordable contract during the season. Even if we didn’t need him for LF, imagine how much he’d be worth in a trade at something like 2yrs, $10MM total?
November 21, 2006 at 9:26 am
That is exactly why I think the pads have to pull off a trade rather than sign a FA. There is no way we are going to do that kind of deal this year. The main reason we have $30mm is b/c we freed ourselves of the long-term/high-dollar contracts of Klesko and Nevin (via Chan Ho). There is no way we are going to go after a defensive liability like Lee, a non-power hitting OF like Doc, or a clubhouse disruption like Bonds.
If the Pads do end up going the FA route, some names they have to be considering at this point are Rondell White (eek), Preston Wilson (could you imagine the k fest with Cameron?), and Luis Gonzalez (this seems like a Towers type of guy, but does he still play an impact role? Probably not).
November 21, 2006 at 9:34 am
I think the pads were thinking trade the whole time to avoid a long term deal.
here are two ideas that I had let me know if im crazy
Linebrink and Greene to Boston for Manny + cash (Pads pay him $15 mil per year BOS picks up the rest)
Boston needs a closer and a SS they get both and get most of manny’s contract off thier back.
Peavy, Wells, Stauffer to New York for A-Rod +cash
New York needs Young pitching and lots of it, Pluss they get about $10 mil off thier payroll (not like it matters)
November 21, 2006 at 9:41 am
I know it’s premature, but I’m getting that feeling that I had at the close of the trading deadline last year. All talk, lots of rumors, then nothing, well, except Todd Walker. Yeah, I know — the failure to get someone significant at the trade deadline last year turned out okay.
I know the front office has a plan. I understand that the free agency market has reached lunacy. But, I still can’t shake that uncomfortable feeling.
November 21, 2006 at 10:31 am
LaMar…did it really turn out okay? We made the playoffs by the skin of our teeth and did little or nothing when we were there. A bat like Ensberg might have made a HUGE difference…
November 21, 2006 at 10:45 am
CM, I didn’t use the term “okay” to be synonymous with “great.” It was just, well, “okay.” If I remember right, we were in the tank near the trade deadline, below .500 or near it. By the end of the year, for whatever reason, we were significantly stronger. I think I have to give that improvement at least an “okay.”
November 21, 2006 at 11:27 am
Great points about A.J. Smith, Clayton. The guy has to be considered one of the best GMs in the game. I also want to emphasize how well Antonio Cromartie has been playing this year (with the exception of the Bengals game, of course).
In baseball news, it’s good to see that conventional wisdom continues to be wrong so frequently. Juan Pierre signs for 45 million and Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard win MVPs over clearly more deserving people.
November 21, 2006 at 11:46 am
Non-Padre News:
The cubs are going after Lugo to play CF this year and move to SS to replace Izturis next year or if they trade him at or before the deadline.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6192462
Wow look at what thier lineup would be.
Lugo CF
Soriano LF
Lee 1B
Ramirez 3B
Barrett C
Jones RF
DeRosa 2B
Izturis SS
With a rotation of
Wood
Prior
Zambrano
Miller
if they can keep 80% of that roster healthy they could be deadly
November 21, 2006 at 12:03 pm
11: Yeah, like their teammates Mauer & Utley.
November 21, 2006 at 1:31 pm
I would have gone with Pooh-holtz and Morneau, but can see a case for other AL guys…
Steve Re:12…Wood is going to the bullpen and they said that Prior is their #6 starter going into the season. They really don’t have much past Zambrano on the Pitching front. Couple that with the terrible OBP of so many of the guys in the line-up and it looks like a very expensive 75 win team. Sure, they might put up 12 runs on windy days at Wrigley, but their pitching may surrender 15.
November 21, 2006 at 1:35 pm
re: 14
Morneau was the third most valuable player on his team. He was not in the top five most valuable players in the league.
November 21, 2006 at 1:43 pm
Kevin, did you see his numbers from May through Sept? He started out the worst in the league, but from May on he was a monster…Hitting .337, 29hr’s, 115 rbi and 436obp. He was a force that carried that team. Biggest problem was his April was horrific, so his OPS was only 9th in the league. Like I said, I can see the arguement for other hitters in the AL.
November 21, 2006 at 1:48 pm
I think he was one of the top 10 players in the league, maybe top five, which is high praise. It’s just that Mauer, Jeter or Santana would have been better choices, and I think the voters chose Mauer because they overrate RBIs.
November 21, 2006 at 2:13 pm
A friend of mine has written a great story about Jay Franklin, the Padres top draft pick in 1971.
http://www.washtimes.com/sport.....-9351r.htm
November 21, 2006 at 2:13 pm
16: The games in April count, too.
November 21, 2006 at 2:22 pm
Richard…Word.
As I said, twice already, I can see the arguement for other AL batters…
November 21, 2006 at 2:23 pm
Even Woody Paige knows that Morneau was the #3 player on his own team.
November 21, 2006 at 2:38 pm
#18 Geez, what a sad story. Sounds like the typical throaway mentality that some clubs had back in those days regarding young talent. I know that the Pads were desparate for a homegrown star to give them a chance at respectability. Dave Winfield became that star for them.
November 21, 2006 at 2:40 pm
#20 CM, why do you occasionally follow someones name with…Word? I do not get the meaning.
November 21, 2006 at 2:40 pm
re: 23
It’s street slang for Amen.
November 21, 2006 at 2:42 pm
Ahhh! in what context did it develop? I understand what you say, but don’t get the end result.
November 21, 2006 at 2:43 pm
At first I thought you were telling him to use MS Word to edit/spell check his post first, but then I didn’t see anything wrong with it.
November 21, 2006 at 2:44 pm
Amen seems to be easier to type than word. Just a curious thought :>)
November 21, 2006 at 2:46 pm
23. I think that falls into “if you don’t know, I’m not gonna tell you”.
Straight.
November 21, 2006 at 2:47 pm
Well then, I don’t want to know!
Uh……what does straight mean?
November 21, 2006 at 2:48 pm
I feel like Fred G. Sanford, and the “G” stands for generally ignorant regarding street slang.
November 21, 2006 at 3:12 pm
23-30.
Thanks for the laughs!
November 21, 2006 at 3:30 pm
re: 31
Word.
November 21, 2006 at 3:47 pm
32.
FO SHIZZLE!
November 21, 2006 at 4:07 pm
PFL: I was going to say “You’re old” but other jokey comments sufficed. (Never mind that “word” is dated as street slang. That’s why I still use it sometimes.)
ESPN today: A source told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that the Padres have decided they’re not interested in pursuing Barry Bonds. ….
San Diego general manager Kevin Towers said in an e-mail Tuesday that the Padres aren’t commenting on their pursuit or non-pursuit of free agents.
But KT can be referred to as a source? Ha, ha.
November 21, 2006 at 5:54 pm
Word = General Agreement, usually used by the over 28 crowd. I used it to agree with the statement that the games in April count.
I would say amen, but since I preach on Sunday’s, it does not seem to fit in this venue.
As to the MVP discussion, I guess it all comes down to “Value” (doesn’ it always?!). Anyone who plays baseball will know that a good hit/great defensive catcher (Mauer), a Cy Young - 200+Inning Pitcher (Santana), or the best SS in the game (No, not him…the guy named Guillen in Det) will always be more valuable/easier to replace than even the best 1 bagger…but if you watched the games, Morneau carried that team for 3 months…the big hit, the key play, or just the general spark. To me that is what the MVP is about…it is the guy who says get on my back boys, I will get us there.
November 21, 2006 at 6:08 pm
Didn’t all the saber-tooth stats suport Jeter over Guillen?
November 21, 2006 at 7:12 pm
David Pinto of baseballmusings.com is doing his Probabilistic Model of Range defensive rankings. He’s up to shortstops after finishing left, center and first. So far Cameron, Roberts, Gonzalez, and Greene have come in above average. Greene actually was one of the best in the majors defensively according to this model.
http://www.baseballmusings.com....._range.php
November 21, 2006 at 7:53 pm
Ben,
Could you venture a guess as to why the Pads, who finished first in defensive efficiency, did not finish at the top in his Probabilistic Model of Range team ratings in either in balls on ground (11th) or in air (12th)?
November 21, 2006 at 8:59 pm
38: Doesn’t Pinto account for park somehow?
November 21, 2006 at 11:05 pm
It appears that it also considers the type of ball hit. In general the balls in play the Padres’ pitchers allowed could have been easier to catch than those that the Royals allowed. (The Royals have the lowest predicted defensive efficiency rating, I believe.)
November 22, 2006 at 6:49 am
Could it be that MANY of the new stats are fun to talk about, but truly offer little value?