This Date in Ducksnorts (28 Nov)
Tue, Nov 28, 2006
by Geoff Young
I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.
- Jason Kendall to Oakland (2004). And a city hundreds of miles to the south breathed a collective sigh of relief.
Tunes: Radiohead, XTC, The Tragically Hip.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 28, 2006 at 6:57 am
A couple of quick notes from Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports) this morning…
He thinks Mark Loretta is headed to the Giants…deal is being held up with the Giants wanting to see if the Red Sox offer Loretta Salary arbitration.
The Padres continue to show “serious” interest in Craig Counsell. This would likely end any chance of Marcus Giles coming to SD.
Tony Graffanino is weighing a 2-year offer to remain in the utility role with the Brewers. His other possibility could be a one-year deal as a regular with the Padres, depending upon what happens with Counsell.
November 28, 2006 at 7:00 am
I figure if I find this type of stuff interesting, so migh some of you…
The breakdown of Alfonso Soriano’s eight-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs: $8 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2007, $13 million in ‘08, $16 million in ‘09 and $18 million per season from ‘10 to ‘14. The contract also guarantees Soriano six premium tickets to the All-Star Game – if he is a participant – as well as home games during spring training, the regular season and playoffs.
November 28, 2006 at 7:02 am
KRS1 gets his wish…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
The Padres have reignited their offseason.
Yesterday they bid more than $10 million for the right to negotiate with Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, came to a preliminary agreement on a two-year deal with second baseman Craig Counsell, all but bid adieu to left fielder Dave Roberts and looked into trading for Red Sox left fielder Manny Ramirez.
November 28, 2006 at 7:36 am
Dont know if anyone has posted this or not but it looks like Eaton is going to be a Philly:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2677728
Im a little disapointed I thought the Padres may try to go after him.
November 28, 2006 at 8:05 am
wow is craig councell really the answer to our 2B and leadoff spots? I figured they were looking at him to fill blums role.
November 28, 2006 at 8:35 am
GY … got a burp trying to access this web site a few mins ago … fyi.
re: HOF … rats, I still haven’t booked a place to stay yet … prolly end up in Albany (2 hours away) … got this email this morning from the Cooperstown Chamber Lodging Email Group …
Hello and thank you for getting in touch with us at Cooperstown Accommodations, http://www.cooperstownny.com
… for real! You’ve been warned!
We do have availability the week of 7/27 at some of our accommodations.
For example, following please find some of the accommodations which we have available:
Adalaide Country Inn Guest House is a five bedroom five bath house, just 4 miles to the Village of Cooperstown. It is $5450 for the week and sleeps 16. Complete with a/c, cable tv, a pond and outdoor areas for bbq’s.
Adalaide also features a two bedroom mobile cottage that is $1495 for the week and sleeps 6.
Komeekha Cottage, located on Otsego Lake available at $5375 for the week. It has three bedrooms and one bath and sleeps 6.
Whitehill Cottage $1200, two bedrooms and sleeps 4.
Wigwam House with 7 bedrooms and 6 bathrooms located on Ostego Lake, $7000 for the week.
Please give us a call at 888-547-1381 or email at reservations.email@cooperstownny.com
if you would like additional information on availability that time period.
November 28, 2006 at 8:38 am
GY - didn’t you have a page dedicated to HOF info? Now I can’t find it … did it fizzle away?
November 28, 2006 at 8:46 am
An article that I just read in THT:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....he-famine/
LM: Wow, that’s cool info you got.
November 28, 2006 at 9:18 am
Lots of buzz in the NY area about Manny coming to SD for Linebrink and Khalil.
Maybe the Counsell signing is for him to play SS? Then perhaps Graffanino comes in as the 2B.
I think I’d like that better if Todd Walker was involved too. We give up a lot on offense with Counsell and Graffanino (over Walker/Greene). I like the idea of Counsell and Graffanino being on the team, just not as full-time everyday guys. I’d prefer to see Counsell with about 300 ABs, Graffanino (who can also play SS) about 400 ABs and Walker 500 ABs as the 2B starter vs. RHPs.
November 28, 2006 at 9:29 am
Craig Counsell about to sign a FA deal to be the Padres starting 2B. Color me underwhelmed.
Padres in talks with Red Sox about trading for Manny Ramirez. Color me extremely excited!
Article mentions Red Sox have had past interest in Adrian Gonzalez. Color me very nervous, and suddenly wondering if I would give up AG for MR. If the price is Linebrink and AGon, at first glance I say NO!, but man, thinking about Manny hitting bombs out of LF at Petco…
Dave Roberts to get 3yrs $15-$17MM from the Giants? Towers should be kicking himself for not extending DR back during the season before this wacky market kicked off. Even if there was no spot for him in our OF in ‘07, he’d be an attractive trade piece at like 2 yrs, $8MM or something.
November 28, 2006 at 9:51 am
What happens if Gonzalez goes to Boston? I like him a lot and don’t really like that idea.
Do we sign Klesko for 1B then???
November 28, 2006 at 9:58 am
That makes no sense…we would end up with the worst defense in the game…
If we put Manny in LF, Kouz at 3B, Walker/Council at 2B and ???? at 1B, we would rank near or at the bottom defensivly. These disucssions make no sense at all.
If we move Greene and Linebrink, maybe, but AGon won’t be part of that deal.
November 28, 2006 at 10:01 am
Just to clarify, the article said that Boston had a past interest in AGon (when he was in TX), not that he’s being actively discussed. I believe the author was fishing for the “what would Boston want” angle.
November 28, 2006 at 10:17 am
10: I was thinking the same thing this morning. Players no longer have the right do demand a trade if they’re moved in the middle of a contract, but I don’t know if you have to hold onto them until May like you used to.
November 28, 2006 at 11:15 am
If I remember correctly, one of the concepts brought to light in Moneyball was that defense is overrated. Basically the difference between the best and worst defenders is not equal to the difference between the best and worst batters.
Pretty sure that was a DePodesta concept…
Then again, the fact that we had the best defense in the NL last year, and the Counsell signing make that seem contradictory.
November 28, 2006 at 11:26 am
BTW, the winning bid for Igawa was accepted by his team. Supposedly it’s around $25 mil.
November 28, 2006 at 12:04 pm
Masticore317, where did you get the info that Igawa was won for 25 nu?
November 28, 2006 at 12:14 pm
link for Igawa bid
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
November 28, 2006 at 12:26 pm
That is insane. The guy is projected to be around a #4 starter, #3 at best, right? Makes KT’s bid of (supposedly) $10MM look silly, doesn’t it?
November 28, 2006 at 12:43 pm
What happened to Ray Durham? I can’t believe that the Padres would sign Counsell to be a starting middle infielder — if he didn’t hit last year in Arizona, how can he hit in Petco (the answer of course is that he won’t).
Obviously it’s too early to judge the Padres off-season but it seems like Towers is just moving the team’s hole around. First it was 3B which may or may not be filled. Now it’s 2B and LF. Granted those are easier positions to fill than 3B but we better not end up with a Vinny Castilla type starting at either of those spots although if Counsell is coming here to be a starter that’s exactly what we have.
November 28, 2006 at 1:02 pm
Good news - Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres offer to Counsell is off the table, with the Padres focusing on Graffanino now instead.
It also says Counsell is close to signing with Milwaukee as a utility infielder.
November 28, 2006 at 1:04 pm
I’m happy if we didn’t win the Igawa bid. If you figure on Igawa signing a 3 year $4 or $5 million deal, that’s a total cost of around $40 million.
I’d rather sign Maddux for 2 years $23 mil.
November 28, 2006 at 1:40 pm
Since Rosenthal is reporting that we are nearing a deal with Graffanino, here is some info on him…
The last 3 years…
Bats/Throws R/R
.283/.349/394 with a .743 OPS
He has hit only 17 HR’s (ave of 5.6 per season or 1.6 every 100ab’s)
He has averaged 7sb’s, 20 doubles, 50 k’s, and 34 walks during that time.
vs. LHP in 2006 .275/.761
vs. RHP in 2006 .274/.746
38.9% Flyballs
42.9% Groundballs
His 2006 salary was just over $2mm.
November 28, 2006 at 2:32 pm
BP’s Joe Sheehan, from an article on free agents you don’t want your team to sign:
“Ray Durham - Six of the nine Giants’ starters last season are free agents, and the only one worth bringing back is Barry Bonds. (Well, Moises Alou, too, given that he signed the best contract of the offseason.) Durham has the potential to be a huge mistake for some team. Not only did he have a fluky power spike in his walk year, but he’s completely lost the ability to be a major-league second baseman. I might take a gamble on him on a very short deal, but he’s going to cost you a win in the field, which means that if he loses that power, he’s unliklely to be better than average overall.
I will say this: I hated the free-agent contract Durham signed in 2003, and while he wasn’t durable and lost all his defensive value over the course of it, he didn’t decline at the plate at all. In fact, he had two of the three highest EqAs of his career for the Giants, and was never below .274 in the four years of the deal. Signing Durham was one of the best decisions Brian Sabean has ever made. ”
November 28, 2006 at 3:10 pm
15: It’s not really a Moneyball concept. It’s a general sabremetric belief that defense tends to be overrated, and that it’s often used as a BS dump (Bill James term) to explain why bad players are kept around. “Oh, but he’s a great glove man, that’s why we’re paying Nefi Perez 3 million a year to make 500 outs per season at the plate.” But everyone except for a lunatic fringe believes that there are great defensive players. The trick is identifying the ones who are great from the ones who look good (see Gary Matthews Jr).
Beane’s principles are about finding undervalued players. Players who could hit but not do much else USED to be undervalued. Now they’re not. You could eventually see Beane field a team of 4 starters, 6 durable relievers, and a lot of speedy types with minimal power, if that’s where his budget converges with the available players. Who knows, the A’s budget might expand after they move and he won’t have to be searching for those angles all the time.
November 28, 2006 at 5:00 pm
I’ll be on board with the 4 starters concept for the Padres. Better starts from quality pitchers, instead of trying to find a fifth starter all the time. Heck, I’ll be up to making Linebrink start a game for a couple of innings and then have Jake Peavy finish off the game.
Imagine starting a game with a fireballer for a couple of innings and then throw in a junkballer a la Woody Williams for 5 innings and then close it out with another fireballer and Trevor. That’s crazy, right?
November 28, 2006 at 6:12 pm
26 - A few years ago Pinella wanted to try something radical like that with his starters. He’d start the game with relievers and then go to starters after that. It sounded interesting enough, but it never happened. If nothing else it would have been interesting. And with Tampa Bay, what was there to lose?
25 - I see what you’re saying…
November 28, 2006 at 10:02 pm
From Rosenthal:
“The Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, Rangers and Indians are believed to be among the teams interested in free-agent left-hander Mark Mulder, who had season-ending shoulder surgery in August and isn’t expected to be ready by the start of the season. …Ditto for the Padres, who could add Mulder to Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Clay Hensley — and maybe Greg Maddux.”
Sheehan’s Durham-defense rant (#24) leads me to think he could play LF.
November 29, 2006 at 6:59 am
28: Paying 8 or 9 million to put Durham in LF is a big risk, given a career SLG of 443. Why pay a premium for what would be average or below-average production in LF?
Mulder’s an interesting idea, but unfortunately for us we need 2 starters, not 1 starter in April and another in June or July. I’d rather pay him and find a stopgap than throw money at Maddux, though.
Think of how sweet we’d be looking with Verlander in the rotation. Even Sowers holding down the 5th spot. Suddenly that 30M stretches a lot further.
November 29, 2006 at 8:01 am
With the way the market is, I don’t mind Maddux at 2 years 23 mil.
Certainly better than 40 mil total for 3 years of Igawa.
I think I’d rather have resigned Roberts for LF than put Durham there too. Not that I want either option at the cost, but if given the choice…
November 29, 2006 at 8:14 am
RHP Ken Kadokura, who the Padres reportedly had some interest in, has decided to stay in Japan.
November 29, 2006 at 10:00 am
FYI, I’m back. Still reading through all the comments from last week — I’ll have a little something for you by about 11 a.m. P.T.
November 29, 2006 at 10:11 am
welcome back GY, how was your trip?
November 29, 2006 at 10:16 am
Anybody knows what happened to Baseball Think Factory site?
#23: Graffanino for $2 mill is okay. He’ll be the Blum of 07. Back up 3B, SS and occasinal 2B.
#32: Welcome back, Geoff. We think you won the lottery and was arranging for all DSers to go to Copperstown for Gwynn coronation next year. Thus, all the time off. No problem. Thanks, Geoff.
Please, no Ray Durham in Padres’ uniform.
November 29, 2006 at 10:22 am
Re: 34 I have a feeling that Graffanino and Walker will be splitting time at 2B this year.
November 29, 2006 at 10:33 am
#7: LM, is this the page you were thinking of?
#33, 34: Thanks, guys; the trip was great, but it’s good to be home.
November 29, 2006 at 10:39 am
Did you guys see the Boston Globe this morning?
http://www.boston.com/sports/a.....rew_close/
“The Sox also remained deep in Manny Ramírez trade talks with the Padres, with San Diego sweetening its original offer, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks. The Padres are offering major league players for Ramírez, a package that presumably would have to include one of two pitchers: prime setup man Scott Linebrink or ace Jake Peavy. The Sox also have coveted Adrian Gonzalez, a lefthanded-hitting first baseman who put up outstanding numbers in his first full season in 2006: .304, 24 home runs, 38 doubles, and 82 RBIs.”
As I stated yesterday, I can’t imagine AGone being traded in this deal. Linebrink and Greene seems to make more sense.
November 29, 2006 at 10:43 am
re 37 - that’s a good little tidbit of info…either Jake or Scott. I think all DS’ers know which of those 2 we’d part with first.
Now, if the options are:
Linebrink + Gonzalez
or
Peavy + Greene
then I’m torn.
November 29, 2006 at 10:57 am
#38: Given the options, I’d keep Peavy and Greene.
Starting pitcher and power hitting SS over relief and 1B.
Plus, that would open up 1B for possibly one of the AAA hitters the Padres seem to have lots of. Yes, the glove is very nice but the objective in the season is to have more bats.
Having said that, it would really suck to see the right IF change after a very good 06.
Do the Padres really want to deal with Manny and his antics?
November 29, 2006 at 11:02 am
I also saw earlier that the Baseball Think Factory site was down. I emailed the link that was there, but have yet to get a response.
November 29, 2006 at 11:17 am
The good news is, David Pinto’s PMR rating has Graffanino as the 2B with the most range in the league.
The bad news is that Todd Walker is last. Behind even butchers Jorge Cantu and Ty Wiggington.
Strangely, Giles came up as the WORST RF…
http://www.baseballmusings.com....._range.php
November 29, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Further proof that most defensive ratings are, well over-rated.
November 29, 2006 at 1:20 pm
41 - that’s not strange about OG, I’ve been saying that for months
November 29, 2006 at 1:59 pm
Clayton, Clayton, Clayton. Someone else posted a metric here after the season that ranked OG very well. CM might be onto something, although I might search for a different word than overrated; maybe inconclusive.