Friday Links (1 Dec 06)
Fri, Dec 1, 2006
by Geoff Young
While we’re all waiting for “something to happen” (no I’m not talking about those ridiculous Manny Ramirez rumors), here are a few links to keep you occupied, amused, and otherwise out of trouble:
- Padres, Graffanino talking (San Diego Union-Tribune). Tom Krasovic reports that the Pads are looking at Tony Graffanino as a possible successor to Josh Barfield at second base. Since the start of the 2005 season, Graffanino has hit .290/.355/.414. He turns 35 in June. No clue what he’s asking, but I think I could get behind something like 2 years, $8 million. At the season ticket holder’s event last night, Graffanino’s name was mentioned along with many others — Ray Durham, Marcus Giles, Mark Loretta (aka the usual suspects).
- Former Padres pitcher Pat Dobson died last week, while former Padres trainer John “Doc” Mattei died Wednesday night. Both served in San Diego well before my time as a fan of the club, but both represent an unmistakable part of the organization’s history. My condolences go out to the Dobson and Mattei families.
- Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts previews this winter’s free agent crop. Yes, some of these are a little old but I was on vacation and the analysis is solid, so here you go. Part 1 focuses on the top 10 hitters, Part 2 on the top 10 pitchers, and Part 3 on the “best of the rest.” Rich also has an amusing riff on Dodgers GM Ned Colletti in the wake of his signing of Juan Pierre. Needless to say, I don’t see any problem with the deal.
- The Free Agent Cycle (Hardball Times). Speaking of free agents, Dave Studeman offers a thoughtful discussion on the cyclical nature of player salaries, comparing the fluctuations with those seen in the insurance industry. Good food for thought here.
- A pitcher ‘dying inside’ (Washington Times). A while back, reader Kevin pointed us to this story about former Padres right-hander Jay Franklin. The David Clyde story is famous, but not many folks (myself included) know about Franklin. A tough read, but worth it.
- Meanwhile, back at Baseball Analysts, Jeff Sackmann reveals the best and worst minor-league defenders at each position. I’ll leave the methodology to Jeff, and just note here that among Padres, second baseman Luis Cruz (#7), third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff (#4), and center fielder Yordany Ramirez (#9) all make the top 10, while third baseman Chase Headley (#2) makes the bottom 10.
Rock over London, rock on San Diego. The Padres are whooping on a mule’s ass with a belt.
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December 1, 2006 at 8:29 am
I was under the impression when we acquired Kouz that he was a poor defender. It’s nice to see someone has graded him higher.
December 1, 2006 at 8:37 am
The one thing that gets me about the Barfield trade is that Luis Cruz is probably 2 years away from making the big leagues and he is more suited to play SS anyways.
Do the pads really expect 2 utility players (Graphinio and Walker) to fill the 2B hole for the next few years? Didn’t the pads try that at 3B and CF before that? When will they learn their lesson.
December 1, 2006 at 8:45 am
Can someone explain how Graffanino is a Type A free agent and Trot Nixon is a Type B? Do they assign these grades based on performance or seniority or some other factor? It seems ridiculous to me that if Graff is offered arbitration he’s going to cost someone a first round pick, meaning he won’t get any offers and will have to resign, only to be traded again.
December 1, 2006 at 8:49 am
Players are assigned Types based on position, I believe.
December 1, 2006 at 8:49 am
I’m not all that knowledgeable with arbitration but I thought type A’s don’t cost a team a 1st round pick they only give teams sandwich picks to the teams that are loosing them right?
December 1, 2006 at 8:50 am
RE: #3
I guess it would be logical if they based their rankings on how well they did at their positions (i.e., top 10% of Outfielders are classified as “A”). Nixon hasn’t been very good the past couple of years, but Graffanino had a pretty good year for a 2nd baseman.
Of course, that is my completely logical (in my mind anyway) description without reading the actual Elias rules. I’m sure it is a lot more convoluted and complicated.
December 1, 2006 at 9:24 am
Type A players still cause a team to lose their 1st round pick(or highest pick remaining if they sign multiple type A FA) as well as giving the original team a sandwich pick.
Type B FA now only give the origninal team a sandwich pick.
December 1, 2006 at 9:30 am
The Type A/B FA’s are a mathmatical formula, derived by Elias, rating players against their peers at their position. According to ESPN:
The formula — the specific components of which no one seems to know — looks at player statistics from the preceding two seasons, combining both bulk statistics (that is, ones that increase with playing time) and simple rate statistics (such as batting average). It then ranks players in each of those categories and then assigns each player a points value inversely related to his ranking. In this respect, the formula is based on where a player ranks in relation to his peers in each category — not how the player actually performed. If you led all players at your position in home runs over the past two years, it wouldn’t matter if you hit 40 or 80 — you’d get the same number of points.
The rating system groups players into five categories — catchers, starting pitchers, relief pitchers, infielders other than first basemen, and first basemen/outfielders/designated hitters. Players are ranked in five to seven statistical categories, with the specific categories varying by their position grouping (e.g., there are no fielding stats used in the 1B/OF/DH group, but the catcher and infielder groups each include two defensive stats). Cumulative statistics may be adjusted for players who spent time on the disabled list, restoring stats for up to 60 days of missed playing time.
Each player is then given a point total for each statistical category that is inversely related to his actual ranking. For example, if there are 100 starting pitchers in the ranking, then the pitcher with the lowest ERA gets 100 points, the pitcher with the second-lowest ERA gets 99 points, and so on, until it reaches the pitcher with the highest ERA, who gets one point just for writing his name. This system has an obvious flaw, of course, as it gives no weight to the distance between any two players: If the top pitcher’s ERA is 0.1 or 0.01 or 1.0 runs better than the ERA of the next-best pitcher, it doesn’t matter, as he still only gets one extra point. Point totals within each position are then scaled to make 100 a perfect score.
December 1, 2006 at 9:32 am
RE: #7— Also from ESPN…
The compensation rules were simplified in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, so that now there are only three types of players:
• Type A players, ranked in the top 30 percent of players at their positions. A team that signs a Type A player gives its top draft pick to the club that the player is leaving. The “losing” club also receives a supplemental pick in the “sandwich” round between the first and second rounds.
• Type B players, ranked below the top 30 percent but in the top 50 percent of players at their positions. A team that loses a Type B player receives a supplemental pick, but the signing team does not lose any picks.
• All other players, who carry no compensation at all. There had previously been a third class of “Type C” players, but that was eliminated in the new CBA.
December 1, 2006 at 10:20 am
Kenny R is reporting this morning that Manny talks have cooled. He attributes to a source that the Pads will not trade Peavy, citing his very affordable contract - 4.75-6-8 during next three years.
December 1, 2006 at 10:23 am
RE: #10 I think its Linebrink, Greene and AAA PTBN or bust
December 1, 2006 at 10:36 am
I gues the question with Peavy is how much does the club view him as risk for serious injury risk. If you believe his delivery is going to blow him out in 07 or 08, maybe you trade him now. But then who is going to take his place and for how much and can they match his production? But I also wonder how much other clubs would use Peavy’s perceived fragileness against the Pads in trade talks.
December 1, 2006 at 10:37 am
Re: 12 - I wish there was a “preview post” function. [red face]
December 1, 2006 at 11:55 am
re: 13 … or a “it’s my post, i should be able to edit it” function …
December 1, 2006 at 11:58 am
#13, #14: Good call, guys. I will add those to the list of things to investigate (still looking into the “days till Opening Day” dealio, BTW).
December 1, 2006 at 12:03 pm
#14 - the problem with editing a post once it is posted eliminates the ability to go back and say “but you said XXX way back in post #2″. How are we going to be able to bust anybody’s chops now!
December 1, 2006 at 12:04 pm
Maybe you can give someone a 2 minute window to edit a post. I know I often don’t see my error until after I post even though I proof read it ten times before hitting the submit button.
December 1, 2006 at 12:47 pm
#14, #17: Yeah, why bother with the preview button. It works just as well right now. Plus, the potential for comedy is great. We all need entertainment.
One can and should edit before posting. Adding a preview button doesn’t change that. And if any mistypes or mistakes, just post a correction. I don’t think we are being graded or do we..?
On the Padres, I hope they don’t add any surcharge for walkup tickets on the day of games. That just seems silly and a horrible and easy way to turn away fans. How many of us plan to go to all 81 home games every year? I used to have the 20 games plan and ended up not going to half of those games but still managed to go to more than 20 games just by going on the days that I decided on last minutes to attend games.
December 1, 2006 at 12:52 pm
In case it’s not obvious, I’m a huge BP fan … today’s goodies …
BP STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 Most Helpful NL Relievers, by Inherited Runs Prevented
Player, Team, Inh Runs Prevented
Brian Fuentes, COL, 4.2
Chad Bradford, NYN, 4.0
Cla Meredith, SDN, 3.4
Jorge Sosa, SLN, 3.3
David Cortes, COL, 2.7
NEW BASIC CONTENT
Prospectus Today
Winter Meetings Preview, Part One
by Joe Sheehan
That buzz you hear is trade talk, as we prepare for what could be one of the most active winter meetings in some time.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5735
State of the Prospectus
New Features
by Nate Silver
EVP of Baseball Prospectus Nate Silver checks in to let everyone know what we have coming up in 2007.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5736
December 1, 2006 at 1:08 pm
Off topic, but if any of you are wondering whether you made a good life decision living in SD, I just spend my entire morning removing half a foot of snow from my driveway.
Not the best of times.
December 1, 2006 at 1:23 pm
I hear you Clayton. I’m hearing it’s supposed to be bad where I am over the weekend too. 60+ MPH winds on top of it.
December 1, 2006 at 1:33 pm
Looking at the Baseball Musings defense articles, it looks like Edgar Gonzalez is a pretty horrendous 2B.
I know some people thought we should pick him up, being Adrian’s brother and all.
December 1, 2006 at 1:36 pm
re22
What if his bro is playing 1B and scooping everything? AG makes a lot of bad IF’ers look good…
December 1, 2006 at 1:39 pm
cant be worse than blum, belhorn, or young out there
December 1, 2006 at 1:51 pm
23: Barfield may be the next Roberto Alomar; Greene is the best defensive SS in baseball, even better than Jeter.
Speaking of BP, I just received “Between the Numbers.” Just got through the chapter on RBI. The book it’s the key stat in the game — maybe not. Ex-Padre Joe Carter makes the top 50 worst 100-RBI seasons list five times, including his 1990 stay in SD, IIRC. The clutch hitting chapter is illuminating, too.
I also just purchased Moneyball paperpack with an afterword by Lewis that’s pretty entertaining — addressing (er making fools of) Joe Morgan and Seattle GM Bavasi.
December 1, 2006 at 2:08 pm
25.
Do you seriously think Khalil is the best SS in baseball and Barfield has a snowballs chance in hell of being the next Roberto Alomar? I’m not saying they are not good players but come on!
December 1, 2006 at 2:18 pm
re 19:
If the Marlins were to put Dontrelle on the market, would the Padres bite, and would we have enough prospects to make a deal happen? Would love to have him in Petco in a Padre uniform.
(this was mentioned in the trade rumours BP article linked in #19)
December 1, 2006 at 2:21 pm
Rotoworld has Ray Durham signing with the Giants today.
Not to beat a dead horse, but maybe we’ll talk to Loretta now.
Not that I ming the Walker/Graffanino platoon idea.
December 1, 2006 at 2:48 pm
The Bochy youth movement continues in SF. How long until Luis Gonzalez and Kenny Lofton join him?
I’d prefer Graffanino over Loretta (better defense) but whatever we can get that doesn’t cost a draft pick would be fine. Funny that everyone keeps talking about 2B when LF is a much bigger hole, in my opinion anyway. Right now Termel Sledge would have to be our starting LF, right?
Rotoworld also mentions that Peavy and Gonzalez were never part of the Manny talks. All the talk of Peavy is coming from wishful Boston fans and media speculation. Typical Boston/NY attitude: “Hey that guy looks good, we can use him, therefore San Diego should trade him to us.” They think of the smaller market teams as an extension of their farm system. Apparently it’s also become an accepted fact by many AL fans that any pitcher coming to the AL is going to have a hard time adjusting to the vastly superior hitters.
December 1, 2006 at 3:21 pm
#29
IMHO, I would bet that “they” currently have Branyan as the preferred starter in LF, pending any other moves. I don’t think they’re sold on Sledge yet; in fact, I could see “them” packaging Sledge in a trade (with whom and/or for whom I have no idea).
December 1, 2006 at 3:23 pm
For the grammar police, that should have been with who and/or for whom, huh?
December 1, 2006 at 4:07 pm
#29 I completely agree about too much emphasis being placed on 2nd base, there is no problem with a platoon at second. Barfield was nice to have, but theres a half dozen others lke him. And I personally like Walker, the guy is the “professional hitter” of all professional hitters.
Sledge, on the other hand, is not. We can platoon a position like 2nd base, but a power position like LF or 3rd cannot be ignored.
Can we stick Greg Vaughn’s corpse out there and just be done with it?
December 1, 2006 at 4:10 pm
Sportscenter just now - stating that the Padres have offered Peavy for Ramirez, they were asking Steve Phillips what he thinks. Steve Phillips, super genius that he is not, would prefer as Boston to keep 35 y/o malcontent Ramirez instead of Peavy.
I bet ManRam is either in Boston or LA (Dodgers) next year.
December 1, 2006 at 4:25 pm
#32: VM, funny you should mention Vaughn. Knee deep as I am into KT’s trading history, I feel compelled to point out that he “won” both deals involving Vaughn:
July 31, 1996: Bryce Florie, Marc Newfield, and Ron Villone to Brewers for Vaughn. Florie, Newfield, and Villone combined for 22 win shares during their tenure in Milwaukee; Vaughn had 40 for the Pads.
February 2, 1999: Mark Sweeney and Greg Vaughn to Reds for Damian Jackson and Reggie Sanders. Sweeney and Vaughn had 26 win shares for Cincy; Jackson and Sanders had 56 for the Pads.
Back to the cave I go…
December 1, 2006 at 4:35 pm
How does Steve Phillips have a job? The most idiotic stuff comes out of his mouth. The other day he said Boston would pursue Bonds if they traded Manny.
If its true that SD offered Peavy (which I highly doubt), they must feel he is a serious injury risk. Even if he is, Boston would be foolish not to take him and ride him until he blows out.
I think Boston needs to move Manny for money reasons and they need to get a SS and a closer. We know SA isn’t exactly a Khalil Greene fan and people view Linebrink as a potential closer. Offer them to Boston, take it or leave it. Maybe even try to get some money for Manny since he’ll want his options picked up.
December 1, 2006 at 5:00 pm
I think Graffanino would be a nice fit. At this point, I think he’d be my choice for 2007 Padre second baseman. I wouldn’t mind having Todd Walker back, either (preferably in addition to Graff).
December 1, 2006 at 5:01 pm
35: Something wrong about a failure like Phillips being advertised as an “expert.”
December 1, 2006 at 5:04 pm
I don’t know if I’m alone on this or not, but it seems to me that putting more emphasis on positions like third base and left field instead of second and settling for a platoon is the quickest way to field a mediocre team.
December 1, 2006 at 5:09 pm
38: I disagree. There’s a ton of decent second basemen. Power positions like third and left are more difficult to fill.
December 1, 2006 at 5:18 pm
Right now LF is the only remaining position that we could fill with a power hitter. Maybe Kouzmanoff can develop into one but he’s unlikely to do that in his rookie year.
We don’t really know what the front office is focused on. KT said recently that he was looking at starting pitching first and 2B was a lower priority. We’re only even talking about 2B because that’s where the most concrete rumors have been (Counsell, Graffanino). The Manny speculation is so out of character for this team that it seems unlikely. There’s been no other rumors for LF but for all we know KT could have an offer on the table for Huff or Gonzalez or Trot Nixon or someone totally off the radar.
Maybe all the Manny talk is just a smokescreen to cover something else. Or maybe there is nothing else and the plan is to make do with what we have and swing a deal at the trading deadline.
December 1, 2006 at 5:21 pm
40: Nixon is rather interesting.
December 1, 2006 at 5:26 pm
I don’t see a ton of decent second basemen anymore. Durham was signed today (although does that put Loretta back out there?), Kennedy was signed, Counsell has signed. And Tony Graffanino’s career average of .269 and OPS of .734 doesn’t scream decency to me.
December 1, 2006 at 5:48 pm
Here’s an interesting note: Bud Selig is looking to trim the schedule back to 154 games.
December 1, 2006 at 5:51 pm
Isn’t Belliard still available? Todd Walker, Mark Loretta. Marcus Giles is still a possibility I would think. Granted they aren’t superstars but the difference between the worst and the best isn’t all that much. Durham was never really an option.
As long as we get a guy that can field the position and not be a total black hole we’ll be fine. A Walker/Graffanino combo would be ok and give us some versatility, although Blum’s return makes it unlikely we’d add both of those guys.
December 1, 2006 at 5:55 pm
Re: 44 I dont think the Blum deal will have an effect on Walker/Graphinio they would need 2 utility IF.
December 1, 2006 at 6:10 pm
Hmm… Branyan is available to fill in at 3B. Blum can fill in at any position and is Khalil insurance. Either Walker or Graffanino can play 2B, SS and 3B. I guess not having to go with 3 catchers will allow for the extra IF.
I wonder if Bud Black will be as double switch-happy as Bochy was?
December 1, 2006 at 6:29 pm
I still would like to see Loretta. But I guess these guys are six one way, half dozen the other.
December 1, 2006 at 6:40 pm
A lot of Padre fans are wringing hands b/c we haven’t solved 3B or LF yet. But as some posters alluded to (#3-6 area) arbitration ended today. KC doesn’t want to get “stuck” w/ Graff… But they may think he’s valuable enough that they CAN offer arb. and another team will give up a draft pick for him. Anyone wonder why NO ONE signed this week (unless they re-signed with their own team)? Teams want to hang on their draft picks. Now that KC HAD to decide to offer arb. or not, we’ll see a flury of signings from all MLB teams. Boston w/ Drew, possibly us w/ Tony Graff., etc.
Unlike Geoff, I do think ManRam is a legit possibility, but he’s actually my 2nd fave at LF w/ Pat Burrell on the market. Philly has seriously burned bridges w/ their underrated LF and we could probably get him + cash for Linebrink (w/ today’s crazy reliever market). Then we could still aford to sign Zito or Mulder + Maddux.
The lull in activity isn’t the Padres being cheap, it’s the Padres being smart.
December 1, 2006 at 6:41 pm
Obviously that should read:
“A lot of Padre fans are wringing hands b/c we haven’t solved 2B or LF yet.
December 1, 2006 at 6:42 pm
Geoff, i wnt the edt feture two…
December 1, 2006 at 6:51 pm
Rotoworld reports Graffanino was offered arbitration, Loretta wasn’t. Count me in on Loretta if Graff is going to cost a 1st round pick.
December 1, 2006 at 7:04 pm
I imagine Bochy’s double-switch-itude last year was partially due to his inept/undermanned bench. He had to make the most of the five bench guys he had (with two of the five being catchers).
With Steve Phillips a so called “expert”, I wonder how come Kevin Malone doesn’t have a job with ESPN. I’ve seen kids come up with better supposed trade proposals than Phillips. He’s horrible.
December 1, 2006 at 7:17 pm
With all of the focus recently on Manny Ramirez, the one name that I would be inquiring about along with Burrell for LF is Adam Dunn. The Reds seem down on him, and Joe Sheehan over at BP thinks the Reds can’t get top value for him. What mediocre package could we throw at the Reds? What are their needs? He would fit right in here.
December 1, 2006 at 8:11 pm
Besides my proofreading being worthless …
26: Sarcasm. I thought the “even better than Derek Jeter” reference sold it; guess not.
But I have heard those sentiments on XX during the past two weeks.
December 1, 2006 at 8:31 pm
54: If it’s any consolation, I knew you were being sarcastic. I even thought it was funny.
December 2, 2006 at 7:56 am
Since I have to be at work today I thought I’d round up some arbitration news:
Offered arbitration:
Mulder, Suppan, Graffanino, Jason Schmidt, Julio Lugo, Miguel Batista
Not offered arbitration
Loretta, Jeff Weaver, Belliard, Aaron Boone, Barry Bonds, Maddux, Luis Gonzalez, Trot Nixon, Eric Young
I believe those are all Type A free agents.
Padres offered arbitration to Roberts, Walker, Chan Ho Park, Klesko, Embree and Wells. Roberts signed a 3 year/$18 million deal with SF so we picked up a draft pick there. Is there a team out there that would give up a 1st round pick for Park or Klesko? I hear San Francisco calling…
53: I’ve always liked Dunn for Petco because he could hit it out of the Grand Canyon but he looks like a beer league softball player. But I agree, if we can get him for cheap I’d take a chance. Another possibility is Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee is trying to get rid of him. He was pretty awful for a good portion of the season but finished strong and is .279/.350/.499 for his career.
December 2, 2006 at 8:46 am
I forgot to include Steve Finley and Aubrey Huff in the No Arbitration list. Why do I have the uneasy feeling we’ll end up with Luis Gonzalez in left next year?
December 2, 2006 at 12:52 pm
57: It wouldn’t be that horrible if he was on a 1-year contract.
December 3, 2006 at 7:36 am
Dude! What a random Wesley Willis reference!
“Suck a European Bison’s smelly ass!!!”