Peavy’s Comps and Fan Perception
Tue, Feb 6, 2007
by Geoff Young
Two quick items today:
- What Does the Future Hold for Jake Peavy? It’s a good question, and one that I attempt to tackle in my latest article at The Hardball Times.
- Tim Sullivan at the San Diego Union-Tribune did a chat on Monday. From the transcript (scroll about a third of the way down):
Clearly, the Padres have a perception problem. Many fans BELIEVE — whether justified or not — that they have been misled by management. To the extent that that perception influences the attitude of fans, I think it’s incumbent on the Padres to deal with it. That doesn’t mean that the Padres should start spending wildly to keep pace with larger market clubs with substantially larger revenues. Players who have a choice will sometimes choose bigger markets for the off-the-field opportunities San Diego doesn’t offer. Still, I think there’s a credibility question that the Padres need to answer if they want to avoid alienating their fans.
I often forget that some people feel this way about the Padres despite the tremendous gains the organization has made since moving downtown. It’s interesting to hear the perspective of Sullivan, who hasn’t been in town all that long. I don’t really have much to add here other than I think he’s nailed the issue pretty well. Some fans will not be happy until they see the club throwing money all over the place to show that they can. As to the credibility question that Sullivan identifies, I remain optimistic that there is a way to address this without being stupid about the money thing. The Padres have smart folks in the front office; I’m sure they’ll figure out something.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 6, 2007 at 12:16 am
Here is some very intriguing stuff from over at BTF:
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....warp_data/
February 6, 2007 at 5:53 am
Sullivan is a load. Since professional sports have been around, every team has had some fans criticize them for not spending enough or misleading the fans, usually “misleading” them into thinking that the team would be a perpetual winner, when no such thing is ever guaranteed. The Padres and every other team will always have a perception problem with such cranks and blowhards.
Since Sullivan is a sports columnist/analyst/journalist, he could do a service by investigating whatever he thinks this perception problem might be. He could actually lay out the facts and make a reasoned argument either for or against.
Will he? I doubt it, he has pretty much always been a gutter sniper. His article basically calling Trevor overrated at the time he broke the save record is indicative of his style.
February 6, 2007 at 7:58 am
Ironically, I think the Pads would frustrate just as many fans by going on a wild spending spree…some fans want the padres to build a sustaining team and farm system as opposed to the bank breaking 1 season run…
I will say an interesting question that I have been pondering for a year or so is would we want the Pads to be like the Florida Marlins…one of the worst teams in baseball every year, but every 5th year or so make a legit run at the WS title. Would you trade the year to year competitiveness for a title twice a decade?
February 6, 2007 at 7:59 am
Geoff…hardball times is down and your link has a database error…
February 6, 2007 at 8:44 am
Thanks, CM. I know they’ve been having intermittent problems which they’re working to get resolved — it appears to be up at the moment.
February 6, 2007 at 9:17 am
re: 2 … “gutter sniper”? Is this what you think it means … http://www.urbandictionary.com.....ter+Snipe? Interesting … colorful … yartrd (yet another reason to read ducksnorts)
February 6, 2007 at 9:31 am
Interesting article on BABIP here:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....commenttop
Chris Young tops the lower side.
February 6, 2007 at 9:35 am
Nice article, Geoff. I hope Jake will have a career more approaching Smoltz’s than the other two.
Two Padres got mentioned in here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....n-of-2007/
February 6, 2007 at 9:38 am
Didi…what scares me about that is my inclination to think that pitchers like CY will become prone to the long-ball…
February 6, 2007 at 9:44 am
re 6: no, but that is a pretty cool definition you posts.
I meant Sullivan usually gets down in the gutter with the quality of his commentary and he fires from a safe distance, like a sniper.
February 6, 2007 at 10:05 am
I caught a little of KT on XX this morning. He said they were still looking at a few free agents, either for a 25 man roster spot or a minor league deal, but wouldn’t say who they were. He stated that they’d like to add some depth, mentioning starting pitching, although favorably discussing Thompson and Stauffer in that role, and someone in the outfield to compete with Sledge.
He also said that he believed that Linebrink would still be on the club when the season started, “unless there was a deal presented that was so one-sided in our favor” that they’d have to take it. He also said the closest they’ve come to trading him was for Betemit, last year. It got nixed since they were in first place and believed that the bullpen was the strength of the team, as well as team chemistry.
Kouzmanoff was also discussed and Rettemund, who worked with him out during FriarFest week, told KT that Kouz’ swing was a little unorthodox, but the ball jumped off his bat.
February 6, 2007 at 10:08 am
CM, yup. It still bothers me that Chris Young gave up more HR at home than on the road last season. Is he doing anything different?
Even with all that, as long as those HRs are the solo kind, I’ll be OK. Although, that 2-run HR by Randa to break up the no-no is still a big bummer.
February 6, 2007 at 10:45 am
From Rob Neyer’s chat over at ESPN:
Ben, Chicago: A lot of people are down on Kevin Kouzmanoff as a prospect, but the guy just keeps hitting…He hits the ball so hard… And he just finished the Arizona fall league batting .382…Can this guy please get some love?
Rob Neyer: (1:30 PM ET ) He’s not young for a prospect, and he’s had real problems staying healthy. But yes, the guy can flat hit. The Padres were smart to get him.
February 6, 2007 at 12:03 pm
I don’t think Sullivan is that far off. I was really surprised at the amount of skepticism and bitterness I saw at the season-ticket-holder event in November — and that was when everyone’s bellies were full of free hot dogs and ice cream.
There’s just a very strong nativist streak in this town (ironic, since we’re nearly all transplants). I find it endlessly confusing that so many fans want to bash Sandy Alderson for “tearing everything apart,” when the team has done nothing but win since he arrived.
February 6, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Nate Silver @ BP reviewed 1st Base prospects today … and had this to say about Paul McAnulty …
… That (passing through his age-24 season without having nailed down a major league job) is what’s happened to Paul McAnulty, more or less. When your first professional season comes in your age-21 season, and you’re advanced up the system one rung at a time, what happens is that you wind up as a 26-year-old whose only promotion left is to the majors, and the big league club is just not going to go out of its way to make room for you. The Padres tried to find a way by giving McAnulty 50 games at third base at Portland, but his defense over there wasn’t much better than you’d expect from his squat frame, and with Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff locking down the corners, he’s probably screwed.
… and then further down the list is Kyle Blanks …
If you’re going to prepare a list of ten first base prospects, a position at which there are perhaps five or six legitimate prospects in the minors right now, you’re going to wind up with some filler. Kyle Blanks is assuredly the most interesting of the group, since he looks a lot like that kid from the Saudi Arabian Little League team, but to the extent it can write off a 20-year-old, PECOTA thinks that if Blanks’ weight doesn’t doom him, his high strikeout rate almost assuredly will.
February 6, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Free P-Mac. Have him bring an 1B glove and an OF glove to ST.
I was suprised that the Seattle Mariners didn’t try to trade for P-Mac to be their DH and, instead, going the trade route to get Jose Vidro; a move that cost them a couple of arms, I think.
With the deluge of DH-type in AAA for the Padres, it is suprising that nobody in the AL wants to try them. Maybe the players are just not that good.
February 6, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Positive comment by Sickels.
http://www.minorleagueball.com.....4334/19273
Are the Padres going to be happy with that production? Are we?
As comparison, here’s Andy Marte’http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/1/31/23436/1056
February 6, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Good article on God:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ple/070117
February 6, 2007 at 4:03 pm
16: DH is a strange gray area for some AL teams. If a kid is unproven (McAnulty), they pass because he’s not a 40 HR masher. But they’ll stick Carl Everett or Jose Vidro in that job and pay him 8 million even though they know they’re still only buying an 800 OPS, 15 HR stick.
17: That’s a community projection and almost everyone who participated didn’t think much of Kouzmanoff. Sickels’ own projection would probably be higher.
February 6, 2007 at 5:05 pm
11: this is somewhat old (pre Wells signing) but it indicates that Chan Ho would be willing to sign cheap. Is this what KT is talking about for starting pitching?
http://english.donga.com/srv/s.....7011771838
February 6, 2007 at 7:10 pm
I haven’t updated my list for Wells and the arbitration settlements vs. estimates, but I see the Padres payroll at about $55MM which puts them in the bottom 4 or 5. I don’t think Padre fans are asking for “reckless spending” just keeping the payroll proportional to our attendance which was 12th last year would be reasonable. How can dropping the payroll be justified when revenue is soaring according to MLB? Kouzman is a BIG question mark. I believe he only had about 40 AB’s above A ball before last year. We shouldn’t be starting the season with 3B and LF question marks and no power hitter. Love the pitching.
February 6, 2007 at 10:13 pm
RE 21: I’d say it’s justified when you’ve been able to field a competitive club at that salary level, have added significant draft picks through strategic use of arbitration offers, and have been able to maintain salary flexibility for a mid-season/pennant race acquisition, or for signing some of those extra draft picks.
I don’t really think any team is without a question mark or two at this time of the year, and I don’t think ours are very large, nor are they unsurmountable. There are numerous possibilities on the roster for LF and Branyan is certainly a possible fallback for Kouzmanoff, though I doubt he’ll be needed.
While it would be nice to have some more power, I think we only lack in the HR department. ZiPS, for example, projects 5 of the starting 8 to have about 30 2-baggers. I think this is a reasonable way of playing to your park, which suppresses HR’s dramatically. Get a group of guys who will hit line drives in the gaps and have high OBP and you’ll score some runs at home.
February 6, 2007 at 11:34 pm
SI Team previews:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....07/athlon/
Padres:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....adres.html
February 7, 2007 at 9:58 am
re: 18 … Thanks for the link, Didi … baseball-reference.com is a *GREAT* web site!