Friday Links (14 May 10)

by Geoff Young on May 14, 2010 (10) Comments

Before we get to the links, I should say something about Mat Latos’ near perfection on Thursday.

  • Like everyone else in San Diego, I didn’t see the game.
  • After his last two starts, we can all agree that Latos doesn’t need more seasoning at Triple-A.
  • To maintain some perspective, those two starts came against teams that don’t have a plan at the plate. I’m curious to see how he fares against hitters that will take a pitch every once in a while.
  • It’s early, but a 3 1/2 game lead is nice. So is the best record in the National League.
  • I almost feel bad for Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez, who has held the Padres to an .083/.151/.104 line in two starts (15 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 15 K) and is 0-2 against them. Almost.
  • That thing I said about Bud Black misusing his bullpen on Wednesday… I didn’t realize that part of Black’s plan was to have Latos pitch the game of his life. Had I known that, I would not have been so critical. He should make that part of the plan more often, because it’s a good one.

On to the links… Continue reading ›

We Have Assumed Control

by Geoff Young on May 13, 2010 (14) Comments

Attention, all planets of the Solar Federation: With Wednesday night’s victory in San Francisco, the Padres now own the National League’s best record at 21-12. They have extended their lead in the division to 2 1/2 games and won another series.

Thoughts? You know I have a few:

  • Clayton Richard was very efficient. He needed 90 pitches to work 7 innings. Not to denigrate his fine effort, but as with Mat Latos’ gem in Houston the other night, it comes with an asterisk. The Giants see the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.66) of any team in MLB (the Astros are second worst at 3.72). Still, it’s good to see the young pitchers attack opposing big-league hitters. Maybe success with that approach will encourage them to continue doing it.
  • The Giants scored their second run on a second-inning balk by Richard that tied the game. Most analysis at the time focused on whether plate umpire Gary Darling made the correct call. My question is this: With two out and an 0-2 count on the opposing pitcher (Matt Cain, career .114/.150/.190 hitter in 309 PA), why is Richard even thinking about the runner on first base?
  • Speaking of Richard, I wish he’d gotten a start in Houston. He could hit a ball out of that park, no problem. That sac fly in the second was well struck. You heard it here first: The next time he pitches in an NL Central park, Richard is going yard.
  • The Padres stole four more bases, bringing their MLB leading total to 44 (in 53 attempts; a crisp 83% success rate). Will Venable executed another of his patented “delayed steals,” although his “slide” left something to be desired. It looked like he wasn’t expecting a throw from Bengie Molina, who in all fairness had no business making one for as good a jump as Venable got on Cain. When Jerry Hairston Jr. and Oscar Salazar worked a double steal in the eighth, it was without a throw. That doesn’t happen by accident. These guys aren’t just running wild, they’re studying teams and figuring out how to maximize what they’ve got. It’s fun to watch.
  • As I noted during Baseball Tonight Live, situation rather than need seemed to dictate usage of Heath Bell in the ninth. Bud Black and Darren Balsley know their pitchers better than I ever will, but Mike Adams threw seven pitches in the eighth. He’d thrown 13 the night before, while Bell had thrown 19. Seems to me the Padres might have wanted to consider letting Adams finish and keep Bell in reserve for the finale. I know, Bell has a rubber arm and Adams has the injury history, but still… It will be interesting to see how the Padres use their bullpen on Thursday if they have a lead late. If Latos can go seven, then maybe Luke Gregerson can close. If not, they may be forced to rely on Edward Mujica, Joe Thatcher, and Ryan Webb. Here’s to Latos attacking the hitters like he did in Houston.

Eh, I’m nitpicking. It’s nice to have that luxury this late in the season. Sure beats thinking about next year, anyway.

Latos and and Padre killer Jonathan Sanchez hook up in Game 3 at 12:45 p.m. PT. No television for this one. Be about it.

Left on Base, Right on Time

by Geoff Young on May 12, 2010 (9) Comments

Tuesday night’s 3-2 victory over the Giants took a tremendous effort of will… to watch. Neither starter could find the strike zone, as Wade LeBlanc failed to survive the fifth inning and Barry Zito tied a career high with seven walks. If there’s anything more scintillating than watching two guys fling baseballs everywhere but across home plate, I don’t know what it is… but I’d love to see it.

The Padres didn’t deserve to win this one. That’s okay, though, neither did the Giants. To the bullet points:

  • San Francisco hurlers twice walked David Eckstein to face Adrian Gonzalez with the bases loaded and two out. The “strategy” worked both times: Gonzalez lined to left to end the fourth and struck out swinging to end the seventh.
  • Eckstein finished the game 2-for-2 with three walks, marking the third three-walk performance of his career. He has drawn more walks (8) against Zito than against any other pitcher he’s faced.
  • Kyle Blanks struck out looking in his first two trips to the plate, then walked three straight times. Blanks has walked or struck out in 52.8% of his plate appearances this year (Mark Reynolds achieved one of those two outcomes in 45.2% of his PA in 2009, in case you’re wondering).
  • Fun moment of the night: In the second inning, with runners at first and second, Zito laid down a sacrifice bunt. LeBlanc pounced on it and flipped the ball home. Yorvit Torrealba fired to first to retire Zito. You may ask yourself why LeBlanc threw home. Well, that is a good question.
  • Is there a better pitch in baseball than Luke Gregerson’s slider?
  • I didn’t need to see quite so many breaking balls from Heath Bell in the ninth. Getting cute while trying to protect a one-run lead on the road doesn’t work for me.
  • The Padres drew 12 walks, tying their highest total ever for a nine-inning game. They had done it three times before, most recently on May 31, 2000, against the Milwaukee Brewers. The franchise record is 14, which happened on August 25, 1979, against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a game that took 19 innings and more than six hours to decide.
  • Tim Stauffer, who pitched (and hit) beautifully as a last-minute replacement for Kevin Correia on Sunday, underwent an emergency appendectomy on Tuesday and is expected to miss at least four weeks. Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos have been recalled from Triple-A Portland to replace Stauffer and Correia on the roster.

The Padres now have a 1 1/2 game lead over second-place San Francisco. Clayton Richard and Matt Cain face off in the second of three at PhoneCo on Wednesday. If this battle between the NL West’s top teams lacks a playoff atmosphere, it’s only because 130 games remain on the schedule.

Padres Take Two in Houston, Give Third Away

by Geoff Young on May 10, 2010 (8) Comments

One of the hazards of watching a lot of games at Petco Park is a skewed sense of how hard a ball needs to be struck to leave the yard. I caught a few innings of a Mets-Phillies game on TV the other night, and baseballs were flying out of Citizens Bank Park. I had to chuckle because that is not the way we experience the game here in San Diego.

On Friday night in Houston, Scott Hairston homered to left to lead off the third inning. He hit the ball hard, a low line drive, but that’s an out in most venues. Chase Headley hit one out to right a few batters later that I’m not sure would have reached the warning track at Petco Park. Continue reading ›

Friday Links (7 May 10)

by Geoff Young on May 07, 2010 (7) Comments

You cannot stop them, you can only hope to contain them… Friday Links…

  • Skip It (Watson Files). Dan Watson gives us the lowdown on several Padres prospects, including right-handers Simon Castro and Alexis Lara, as well as shortstop Jonathan Galvez. Incidentally, only two players in the entire organization (Adrian Gonzalez and Vincent Belnome) have drawn more walks than the 19-year-old Galvez has so far at Fort Wayne.
  • Alternate Reality: Need-Based Mock Draft (FanGraphs). Bryan Smith thinks the Padres need more offense and advocates taking Christian Colon this June. If they do, it won’t be the first time.
  • Speculation (Hardball Times). Speaking of Bryan Smith and alternate realities, I stumbled onto an old article of his that attempts to comp several up-and-comers (as of 2004) with established players. I’m a sucker for this stuff, and I like Dan Driessen as a comp for Sean Burroughs. Not so much now, of course, but at the time it made sense… Friggin’ Burroughs.
  • Padres are young, talented, and … good? (NBC Sports). Joe Connor likes what the Padres are doing, and why not?
  • Padres assistant Roberts has lymphoma (Padres.com). Dave Roberts is feeling optimistic: “It was early enough that everyone feels pretty good about it, where I think I can make a full recovery.” Our very best wishes go out to Roberts.
  • Fan Conversion Day (Gaslamp Ball). A Boston transplant suggests that more transplants from everywhere (and if you’ve lived in San Diego for any period of time, you know we come from everywhere) should adopt the Padres as their team. Amen. I’m from LA; it doesn’t get much worse than that.
  • LeBlanc Getting It Done (FanGraphs). Count Jack Moore among the many who have noticed that Wade LeBlanc is off to a strong start.
  • Examining Wade LeBlanc’s Change-Up (Friar Forecast). Daniel Gettinger uses Pitchf/x data to show that LeBlanc’s change-up is, in fact, quite good.
  • This is why you didn’t trade Tim Stauffer … (Who’s Your Padre?). Corey Brock likes the Padres pitching depth.
  • Padres in first place? That’s not the only surprise so far this year (Sports Illustrated). Jon Heyman’s article includes a fun quote from Padres GM Jed Hoyer: “If we’re winning games, we’re going to try to win more games. If we’re in the race, we’re going to look to add.” [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • A New Book Echoes Bouton’s ‘Ball Four’ (New York Times). Tyler Kepner discusses friend of Ducksnorts Dirk Hayhurst’s The Bullpen Gospels: Major League Dreams of a Minor League Veteran [h/t reader Parlo]
  • Ernie (1918-2010) (Joe Posnanski). Poz remembers Ernie Harwell, the legendary Detroit Tigers broadcaster who died this past week. [h/t reader Didi]
  • Freese Flips the Bird to Pre-Season Rankings (FanGraphs). Marc Hulet observes that former Padres prospect David Freese is off to a nice start in St. Louis, noting among other things that “much of his power is to the opposite field, with a .429 ISO rate on balls to right field, compared to .130 to center and .186 to left.” That’s pretty much the Freese I remember from Lake Elsinore, where he abused the right-center field alley.
  • Kyle Blanks and strikeouts (Friar Forecast). Myron Logan wonders about Blanks’ ability to make contact.
  • Padres patient with Venable, Blanks (Padres.com). Nobody is panicking, which is good.
  • San Marcos considered for Padres Triple-A team (NC Times). John Maffei reports that the Padres are looking at North County as a possible replacement for Portland. Yes, please! [h/t Gaslamp Ball]

Mailbag: Who Is Juan Oramas?

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2010 (2) Comments

Reader Peter recently posed the following question: “What can you tell me about Padres left-hander Juan Pablo Oramas? He is having a great start at Fort Wayne; do you have any scouting reports?”

Well, Peter, I can tell you he’s intriguing. Here’s what I said about Oramas in the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual:

Oramas doesn’t have a classic pitcher’s body [he's 5'10", 215 lbs], and — despite what the numbers might seem to suggest — doesn’t throw hard. Right now he is using off-speed stuff to beat unrefined hitters… He has yet to pitch on the North American continent, and it’s possible that his approach won’t translate at higher levels. Still, anyone who can dominate a league like he did in ’08 [1.02 ERA, 11.89 K/9 in the Dominican Summer League] must be doing something right, which tells me he’s worth tracking for now.

Oramas followed his 2008 performance with a strong campaign (2.31 ERA, 8.93 K/9) as one of the youngest pitchers in the much more advanced Mexican League. But those are just numbers. For a more complete look, I decided to enlist the aid of someone much closer to the situation, Padres Executive Vice President Paul DePodesta. Here’s what DePo had to say about Oramas:

He’s a young left-hander from Mexico. Not the biggest guy but has a really good three pitch mix of FB, CB and CH. He’s definitely a flyball pitcher, so the Cal League will be a good test. However, he was outstanding last summer in the Mexican League, and that’s a tough place for flyball pitchers as well.

Oramas has since been promoted to Lake Elsinore, where he made his first start of 2010 after five relief appearances. His final line in that start (3.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO) isn’t one you see often. It’s worth remembering that The Hangar in Lancaster is one of the most favorable hitting environments in professional baseball. Also, striking out half the batters you face is a good thing.

I say keep watching and waiting. He’s young (turns 20 on May 11), so there’s no hurry.

Thanks, Peter, for the question. And thanks to DePo for sharing his insights.

Random Thoughts after an Irritating Loss

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2010 (7) Comments

I don’t have much to say about Wednesday’s loss to the Rockies beyond “Ugh,” but I do have some thoughts about other stuff…

  • The Padres are performing well with runners in scoring position. Only two teams in MLB have a higher OPS with RISP: 
          PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Ari  285 .308 .399 .574
TB   301 .319 .403 .524
SD   290 .296 .419 .496
...
MLB 8745 .259 .354 .412
...
Bal  249 .205 .291 .321

    Sucks to be the Orioles.

  • The top of the order isn’t getting the job done: 
                 PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Batting 1st 134 .167 .237 .192
Batting 2nd 132 .242 .282 .315
...
Batting 9th 108 .212 .313 .282
  • Roughly a fifth of the way through the home schedule, attendance remains down from 2009. According to Baseball-Reference, only the Indians, Blue Jays, and Mets have experienced a worse drop so far in terms of attendance per game (I’ve thrown in team records for grits and shins): 
        HG   2009   2010   Diff  W-L
SD  16 26,293 22,052 -4,241 17-11
Cle 12 19,693 14,154 -5,539 10-17
Tor 17 21,419 15,208 -6,211 16-13
NYN 16 38,223 29,293 -8,930 15-13
  • Fans of numerology may enjoy this: Clayton Richard finished his evening with exactly 5 IP, 5 BB, and 5 SO. He became the third player to accomplish the feat, which has happened 120 times since 1920. Richard is the first to do it on 5/5. Also, the game was tied, 5-5, after nine innings. If that doesn’t freak you out… then you have some sense, because it doesn’t mean anything… but it is kind of fun… except for the losing part.

The Padres have an off-day on Thursday, then play three in Houston over the weekend. You know what I like about the Astros? They don’t have Ubaldo Jimenez…

Me, Elsewhere: A Different Look at the Minors

by Geoff Young on May 05, 2010 (0) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times focuses on an aspect of minor-league baseball that not everyone realizes exists, namely the fact that pitchers sit in the stands charting pitches. As I note, it’s a little different from what you find at the big-league level:

Imagine yourself at Dodger Stadium, catching a Dodgers-Giants game with 40,000 of your closest friends. Hiroki Kuroda and Barry Zito are the starters. A few rows back of home plate, Chad Billingsley is tracking pitches using pencil and paper while Clayton Kershaw works the gun. Behind them, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum do the same. The people sitting in their vicinity, having paid less than what it costs to see the latest overhyped 3-D movie, pay no attention to them whatsoever.

I also reminisce about some former Padres farmhands I saw back in the day that have since graduated: George Kottaras, Xavier Nady, David Freese, Chase Headley, Jason Bartlett, Khalil Greene, and Jake Peavy. Enjoy the article…

Tuesday’s Win Deserves a Better Title Than This

by Geoff Young on May 05, 2010 (7) Comments

The first seven innings of Tuesday night’s comeback victory over the Rockies provided an exercise in frustration for the home team and its fans. The Padres put runners on every inning, and got at least one man into scoring position in each of the fourth through seventh innings, yet plated just one run.

Colorado starter Greg Smith walked five batters in five innings, and none of them scored. The Padres kept bailing him and his successors out with shoddy baserunning, from David Eckstein getting caught stealing (worst slide ever!) on a 3-1 swinging strike to Adrian Gonzalez in the first, to Scott Hairston getting picked off first the next inning, to Kyle Blanks getting thrown out at home to end the sixth on a pitch that skipped past catcher Miguel Olivo. Where the baserunning didn’t cost the Padres, lack of timely hitting did, most notably when Chase Headley rapped into a 6-3 double play with runners at the corners to end the seventh. Continue reading ›

Tuesday Links (4 May 10)

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2010 (5) Comments

It’s time once again to clear off the virtual desk…

  • Fun With Latos’ PTLWs (Chicken Friars). Nathaniel notes that Mat Latos has had more success with his changeup this year than last, but not as much with his fastball.
  • Fandom?? (RJ’s Fro). SDPads1 waxes philosophical about ex-Padres Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy. Bonus points for a photo of both of them with friend of Ducksnorts, Steve Poltz.
  • Know your no-nos (Hardball Times). Sal Baxamusa asks a compelling question: “Were you watching Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter a few weeks ago? At what point did you begin to think that he could actually do it? In the third inning? Fifth? Seventh?” Okay, technically that’s five questions, but read the article; it’s good.
  • The Network Structure of Baseball Blogs: Part 1 (Baseball Analysts). Dave Allen engages in a little navel gazing, complete with cool graphics.
  • Card of the Week: 1997 Score #172 Fred McGriff (Baseball-Reference). Andy pens a fun piece on the former Padres first baseman.
  • Padres’ 5 shutouts (Baseball-Reference). Andy gives the Padres a little more love.
  • What We Learned in Week Four (FanGraphs). Dave Cameron notes, among other things, that former Padres right-hander Clay Hensley “has reinvented himself” and is pitching surprisingly well for the Florida Marlins. Good for him; I always liked Hensley, especially after the time he got whacked in the head with a broken bat and stayed in the game. That was epic.
  • Cooperstown Confidential: Bob Locker talks Marvin Miller (Hardball Times). Bruce Markusen chats with former big-league reliever Bob Locker about former MLBPA leader Marvin Miller, whom Locker is advocating for the Hall of Fame.
  • Wade LeBlanc: How Good Is This Guy? (Gaslamp Ball). Zach concludes that the young left-hander “has a chance to be a solid, above-average starter,” but you should read the entire article to learn how he arrives at that conclusion.

That’s all for now. More as it happens…