Lines Form on My Face and Hands

by Geoff Young on Jun 01, 2010 (6) Comments

I have a strong preference for well-pitched games, but sometimes it’s fun to see your team go off like the Padres did on Monday night against the Mets. I probably appreciate it more because it doesn’t happen often with this club, in this ballpark… although it’s worth noting that the Padres’ two biggest outbursts in 2010 have come at home.

It was like one of those weird dreams. Every time I looked up, the Padres had the bases loaded and nobody out, with Luis Durango at the plate. That exact configuration occurred three times. What I’m trying to say is, I need to look up more often.

In the second, after Durango popped weakly to shallow right and Kevin Correia struck out, Jerry Hairston Jr. stepped to the plate. There was an obnoxious Mets fan behind us. I had no doubt that the Padres would fail to score despite their advantageous situation and we would be subjected to “clever” commentary for much of the evening.

Then Hairston knocked an 0-1 pitch from Hisanori Takahashi off the second-deck facade of the Western Metal Supply Co. building. Dude kept chirping for a while but left after a few innings, when it became clear that his team didn’t have it.

I enjoyed watching the Padres respond to each of the Mets’ attempts to turn this one back into a game. Holding a 6-1 advantage in the fifth, Correia coughed up three runs. No problem… the Padres came back to score four (two on bases-loaded walks, but still).

Next inning, Correia surrendered a two-run homer to Rod Barajas on an 0-2 pitch. The Padres answered with six of their own. Sure, the Mets scored five runs in two innings, but the Padres scored twice that number.

Random observations:

  • Six Padres collected two or more hits.
  • Each of the #3 through #6 hitters (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley, Nick Hundley, Chris Denorfia) reached base four times. They combined to go 12-for-20 with two doubles, a homer, and four walks.
  • Hairston and Hundley are out of control. Hundley now leads the team in BA, SLG, OPS, and OPS+.
  • Granted, we’re looking at this immediately after the team’s highest run total of the season, but check out the Padres offensive home/road splits through May: 
          G  R/G   BA  OBP  SLG
Home 28 4.39 .251 .339 .361
Road 23 4.30 .244 .310 .371

My time is up. You people are lovely; don’t ever change… unless the stench becomes too much, in which case, do everyone a favor and put on some clean clothes.

Hundley Rises Up to Challenge of His Rival, Beats Nationals Twice

by Geoff Young on May 31, 2010 (6) Comments

Friday

Clayton Richard was efficient (7 IP, 74 pitches, 52 strikes) in Friday’s 5-3 loss to the Nationals but made a couple of mistakes. The big blow was a three-run homer off the bat of Josh Willingham in the fourth. He absolutely crushed a ball to dead center. Continue reading ›

Sunday Links (30 May 10)

by Geoff Young on May 30, 2010 (0) Comments

I’m a little behind in my reading. Here are few items you might enjoy…

Well, that should keep you busy for a while…

Me, Elsewhere: Eichelberger and Salveson

by Geoff Young on May 28, 2010 (3) Comments

My latest edition of This Week in Minor League History is up at Baseball Prospectus, and it features a couple of former Padres. On May 26, 1984, Juan Eichelberger, then with the Milwaukee Brewers organization, threw a no-hitter for Vancouver. Eichelberger won 20 games for the Padres from 1978 to 1982. His shining moment came on June 6, 1982, against the Cubs, when he finished a Scot Thompson single shy of a big-league no-no.

The other ex-Padre was someone I’d not heard of before researching the article. Right-hander Jack Salveson played for the Pacific Coast League Padres in 1952 and 1953. On May 25, 1952, he won his 200th PCL game. Salveson, then 38 years old, went 10-10 with a 3.80 ERA for the Padres in ’52. He appeared in a handful of games for San Diego and Oakland the following year before retiring.

I’d Like to Be You for a Day

by Geoff Young on May 27, 2010 (7) Comments

What’s up with Jerry Hairston Jr.? The guy is hitting .225/.268/.271 with zero homers in 141 PA when the Cardinals come to town. Next thing you know, he’s got back-to-back game-winning jacks. I thought the other Hairston did that sort of thing. It’s like he borrowed Scott’s mojo:

Jerry: Hey bro, I’m kind of sucking right now. Since you’re hurt and can’t use your mojo, I thought maybe… you know, you could hook me up or whatever.

Scott: Hey, it’s like Dave Matthews says… actually, I can’t think of a Dave Matthews quote, but Dave Matthews is awesome, right?

Jerry: Uh, right. So… the mojo?

Scott: Sure, here you go. Dave Matthews.

Jerry: You’re weird.

Then it’s boom, boom, out go the Cards.

Both homers just cleared the fence. I didn’t think the one on Wednesday had a chance, but maybe I was jaded by Will Venable’s drive the previous night.

Other thoughts:

  • The Cardinals may be the worst base running team in baseball. Granted, I haven’t seen every team, but those guys repeatedly ran themselves out of innings on Wednesday. My favorite was the good ol’ 4-2-6 double play Skip Schumaker hit into against Ryan Webb with runners at the corners and no out in the 11th. First off, what the heck is Yadier Molina thinking? Second, check out Hairston sprinting to cover third base on the play. There’s no excusing Molina’s decision to try for the extra base (not that he needs to excuse himself; I’ve already forgiven/thanked him), but the more I watch the replay, the more impressed I am with Hairston’s actions. He starts toward second, but the moment David Eckstein throws home, Hairston moves toward third (vacated by Chase Headley, who is preparing to engage Colby Rasmus in a rundown) in anticipation of a possible play.
  • Speaking of Headley, he does everything right on the play, so I’m not picking on him, but he’s hilarious in the video. He never touches the ball and spends most of the time bouncing around, pointing at stuff. He looks like a kid making his first trip to Disneyland who can’t decide which ride to go on first.
  • Mad props to Chris Denorfia for tagging up and taking second on a failed sacrifice bunt attempt by Venable in the ninth. Former Padres farmhand David Freese made a nice running catch on the foul popup, but his momentum put him in an awkward position and Denorfia alertly took the extra base. Tom Krasovic likens Denorfia to ex-Padre Eric Owens, and not just because both players were drafted by the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Luis Durango is fun to watch — dude makes routine grounders anything but routine, and seeing him fly past Albert Pujols on the bunt he beat out for a base hit in the fifth was something — but he is a bit scary in the outfield. His decision to try for a sliding catch on Schumaker’s soft line drive in the ninth cost Heath Bell a save and nearly cost his team even more. With a one-run lead in the ninth, you cannot let the ball get past you. First-base coach Rick Renteria talked to Durango about it after the inning; here’s hoping the kid listened.
  • Edward Mujica gave up a very long fly ball to Pujols to end the 12th. Pujols thought he hit it out, but the ball barely reached the warning track in dead center. The look on his face was brilliant. It said: “What kind of ballpark lets a pitcher get away with that?” It’s okay, Albert; you’ll be back in the NL Central parks soon. Mujica, meanwhile, is using Petco Park to his maximum advantage. He is holding opposing batters to a .154/.185/.327 line at home, versus .290/.313/.710 on the road (he exhibited similar, albeit less extreme, splits last year). Bud Black seems to have noticed, as Mujica has worked nearly twice as many innings at home.
  • For the second straight night, fewer than 20,000 saw the first place Padres take down a strong St. Louis team. We are advised that winning cures everything, but reality has other ideas. The Padres are still down more than 1700 per game this year versus last. Even that is an improvement from a few weeks ago, before the Dodgers brought their fans into town for a three-game sweep.

I feel like I’m missing something. Oh well, I usually feel that way. Wade LeBlanc looks to rebound from last weekend’s debacle in Seattle as the Padres go for the sweep on Thursday afternoon.

Me, Elsewhere: Examining the Padres’ Hot Start

by Geoff Young on May 26, 2010 (9) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times is all about the Friars, who continue to defy expectations by playing well and leading the National League West in late May. Here’s a little snippet from the section on Chase Headley:

If nothing else, Headley has enjoyed greater success in 2010 than his predecessor, Kevin Kouzmanoff. Beyond the fact that Headley draws a walk at least once a week, the actual gap in defensive performance has been much smaller than the perceived gap, as expressed by those who thought Kouzmanoff deserved the NL Gold Glove in 2009 on the basis of his three errors:

            PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ BB/PA  ISO FPct RF/9
Headley    192 .286 .333 .377 100   .073 .091 .952 2.77
Kouzmanoff 180 .265 .294 .359  78   .033 .094 .967 2.81

I also discovered something interesting about Mike Adams while researching the piece. He doesn’t like baserunners:

Going back a little further, this appears to be a pattern with Adams:

      Bases empty               Runners on
Year  PA   BA  OBP  SLG BB SO   PA   BA  OBP  SLG BB SO
2008 153 .169 .229 .275 11 46  106 .269 .317 .452  8 28
2009  93 .091 .140 .114  5 35   43 .158 .220 .237  3 10
2010  52 .102 .154 .163  3 18   25 .333 .440 .571  4  4

I don’t know what this says other than maybe Bud Black could be more careful about bringing Adams in during the middle of an inning. Whatever the case, Adams is one of the few pitchers on the Padres staff who is not performing to his capabilities. He hasn’t been causing the team to play over its head, and he could improve.

Read the article; it’s a bit long but I think it gives a good idea of where this team is at and where it could be headed. My conclusion (“Four months is plenty of time to take a big fall”) might be overly harsh, but I don’t think this is a 96-win team. Then again, I’m finding it increasingly difficult to defend my preseason prediction of 75 wins. And that’s just fine by me.

Friday Links (21 May 10)

by Geoff Young on May 21, 2010 (6) Comments

It’s that time of the week…

  • This Week in Minor League History: May 17 – May 23 (Baseball Prospectus). In the latest installment of my series, we learn that someone named Inigo Montano once threw a no-hitter. I like to imagine he started the game throwing left-handed before revealing that he was, in fact, right-handed and sealing the deal.
  • The Network Structure of Baseball Blogs: Part 2 (Baseball Analysts). Dave Allen examines team-specific blogs. Hey, I can see my blog from here.
  • Latos Numbers (Baseball-Reference). Raphy takes a closer look at Mat Latos’ near-perfect game. When a young pitcher ends up on a list with Herb Score and Dwight Gooden, that’s usually a good thing.
  • Mat Latos apologizes, but not for owning Giants; saying so long to San Diego; paging Freddy Sanchez… (Extra Baggs). Aparently Latos smashed a car window with a thrown baseball in San Francisco. I love this from one of the commenters: “What’s worrisome about the Padres is they’re young enough that they might not realize they’re aren’t supposed to be very good. And the longer they have success the more confident they’ll get. Kind of similar to the ’08 Rays.” I also like that Giants fans appear to hate Latos. The kid is 22 years old and he’s already under their skin. Yep, it’s good to have one of those guys. [h/t GLB]
  • Why Bryan Smith Writes (FanGraphs). This may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but I found it a fascinating read. Craig Calcaterra and Tommy Bennett also check in with some thoughts on the subject.
  • Help us (insert name here), you’re our only hope! (Sacrifice Bunt). Recently the idea has surfaced that the Padres could have interest in Jermaine Dye. Ray explains why this is a bad idea: “Dye’s bat could bring some added oomph to this lineup. Even last year, in a down season, Dye hit 27 home runs with a .344 wOBA. Unfortunately, he was also the worst defensive player in all of baseball. His UZR/150 was -26.4 and on his career, Dye is a -16.3 outfielder. This team definitely needs some offense, but what happens to our pitching and defense with Jermaine Dye roaming around the spacious confines of Petco Park?” Yeah, what he said.
  • Simon Castro is not Mat Latos (Friar Forecast). Ben Davey discusses the next phenom in line. Isn’t it nice to have another now that Latos has graduated?
  • Giant Killers (Padres Trail). Any post that references Dan Spillner deserves mad props. This one does… and it does.
  • Five Minutes with Anthony Slama (Baseball Prospectus). David Laurila chats with the former USD right-hander, who now pitches in the Minnesota Twins organization.
  • How many strikeouts is too many? (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann asks, “How often can an amateur hitter strike out before we need to declare that he has virtually no chance of becoming a productive major leaguer?” Interesting stuff, in which we learn among many other things that former Padres catcher Colt Morton couldn’t make contact in college either.
  • State of the offense (Friar Forecast). Myron acknowledges that it has been bad and isn’t likely to improve with the current roster.
  • Examining Luke Gregerson’s Slider (Friar Forecast). The other day I asked whether there’s a better pitch in baseball than Gregerson’s slider. That’s open for debate, but Daniel confirms the pitch is a good one.
  • Weekend Discussion: With the 9th Pick… (Padres RunDown). Peter looks forward to the June draft and names names.
  • First Round History: Catchers (FanGraphs). Ah, Ben Davis; he was so dreamy. Ooh, and here’s Mitch Canham.
  • Beyond Bryce (Hardball Times). Speaking of which, there are a few catchers available in the upcoming draft and the Padres are thin at the position.
  • Managers: Hired To Be Fired (Sabernomics). J.C. Bradbury discusses, among other things, the effects of randomness in life… a pet interest of mine.

Happy Friday!

But It Was a Fast Three Hours and Forty-Eight Minutes

by Geoff Young on May 20, 2010 (7) Comments

The Padres finally beat the Dodgers on Wednesday night. Where did those 10 runs come from, anyway? That’s as many as the Padres had scored over their previous four games combined.

To the bullet points:

  • Jon Garland is amazing. How do you use 117 pitches in 5 innings and make a regulation game last 3 hours, 48 minutes?
  • Will Venable had a nice evening. He finished a home run shy of the cycle but went 4-for-5 with a triple, two doubles, and a stolen base. That was Venable’s debut in the leadoff spot this year. Something tells me that, lack of overwhelming on-base skills be damned, we’ll see him there again before long.
  • Adrian Gonzalez went 3-for-5 with a homer and 6 RBI. He’d had 5 RBI over the previous 21 games (88 PA) going back to April 26. It’d be good to have him back at the party.
  • Chase Headley knocked his third home run. He now needs one more extra-base hit to catch David Eckstein in that department. Eckstein has 22 fewer plate appearances, in case you’re wondering.
  • Speaking of which, check out the OPS+ among Padres who have collected at least 80 plate appearances this year:
    1. Adrian Gonzalez, 146
    2. Scott Hairston, 137
    3. Will Venable, 119
    4. David Eckstein, 110
    5. Chase Headley, 106
    6. Nick Hundley, 94
    7. Kyle Blanks, 71
    8. Tony Gwynn Jr., 58
    9. Jerry Hairston Jr., 52
    10. Everth Cabrera, 49

    I don’t think that’s how anyone drew it up in spring training.

  • Over at ESPN’s Baseball Tonight Live, Rob Neyer and I got into some interesting territory. First, he asked about Luke Gregerson’s success and I mentioned the devastating slider. Rob responded by saying, “He’s the new Larry Andersen!” Rob and Bill James, you may recall, once wrote a book about pitchers. In the bit about Andersen, they quote San Diegan Bob Cluck, who knows a thing or two about pitching: “James Rodney Richard and Larry Andersen had the best sliders of any pitchers that I ever coached.” Andersen, of course, stayed in the big leagues for nearly 20 years. Gregerson has a ways to go yet, but yeah, the Andersen comp is a good one.
  • The other thing Rob mentioned, which Dick Enberg brought up in the telecast, was Garret Anderson’s propensity for not getting hit by pitches. The numbers were so freakish that I had to run a comparison: 
                      PA HBP
Garret Anderson 9078   8
Kyle Blanks      292   9

    When Ron Hunt famously got plunked 50 times in 1971, he got hit 9 times or more in four straight months!

Anyway, now I’m just talking flopsy. Good win, good showing by the offense. I wish the Dodgers could send Ramon Ortiz out there every night. Too bad it’ll be Clayton Kershaw on Thursday. He’s kinda good.

Me, Elsewhere: The Amazing Adventures of Jaff Decker and Friends

by Geoff Young on May 19, 2010 (5) Comments

We made the trek up to Lake Elsinore this past weekend, and out popped an article at Hardball Times. I got my first look at Jaff Decker and saw several other prospects, including Allan Dykstra, Drew Cumberland, Cole Figueroa, Blake Tekotte, and Anthony Bass.

My general feeling on Decker, after seeing him, “is that he looks good in the batter’s box and that concerns about his body appear to be overstated.” As for Cumberland, despite his terrific numbers, he hasn’t wowed me when I’ve watched him this year. Meanwhile, I remain irrationally optimistic about Bass despite his lack of strikeouts, and I’m almost ready to admit out loud that Dykstra is a lost cause.

Go read the article. It’s got pictures and stuff.

Ledge? What Ledge?

by Geoff Young on May 18, 2010 (14) Comments

Getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend sucked almost as much as the fact that Petco Park has become a de facto second home for the team from Los Angeles. It’s a wonder that MLB doesn’t require them to bat last when they come to town.

On a brighter note, isn’t the National League West turning out to be fun? Except for the Diamondbacks, who appear to have boarded the wrong bus, each team has shown the ability to stick it to the others. That’s pretty cool. Maybe not as cool as having a team that can run away with the division or even draw its own crowd, but still pretty cool.

One of the problems so far in May is that the Padres offense has disappeared:

Mon  G  BA   OBP  SLG  R/G
Apr 23 .248 .325 .387 4.61
May 15 .217 .314 .304 3.13

Scott Hairston (.250/.380/.500 in 50 PA) and David Eckstein (.313/.411/.396 in 57 PA) are the only guys doing anything. Hairston is hurt, and do you really want Eckstein carrying the offense?

Still, the Padres are 8-7 this month because for as brilliant as the pitching was in April, it has gotten even better:

Mon    IP  ERA   BA  OBP  SLG
Apr 207.0 3.00 .232 .303 .360
May 139.1 2.13 .190 .268 .283

Such improvement is not only improbable, it’s unsustainable. That’s not a knock on the pitching staff, which is much better than anyone had a right to expect (remember that 85 ERA+ last year?), just an acknowledgment that their current 140 ERA+ is ridiculous. I don’t know what the all-time single-season team record is for ERA+, but here are the top five performances of the past 20 years:

Year Team ERA+ Wins
2002  Atl  133  101
1997  Atl  131  101
1999  Atl  129  104
1998  Atl  128  106
2003   LA  128   85

Unless you believe that Jon Garland, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, and Wade LeBlanc are better than Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and my Aunt Ruth, there’s no way the Padres can keep this going. At some point they need help from the hitters. Otherwise, they may well end up like the 2003 Dodgers, who managed a 79 OPS+ and whose offense was basically [Brian] Jordan, [Shawn] Green, and nothing between. Replace Jordan and Green with Hairston and Adrian Gonzalez, and you’ve got a less snappy version of the same thing.

To the lightning round:

  • I’ve preached patience but I’m starting to have concerns about Kyle Blanks. He is 3-for-34 with 17 strikeouts this month and hitting .157/.283/.324 on the season. Worse, he is missing hittable pitches. I still don’t know that he’s got much to learn at Triple-A, but there’s something to be said for letting a young player work out his troubles away from the spotlight.
  • I recently said of Tony Gwynn Jr. that “I love what [he] is doing so far. I still have serious reservations based on his larger body of work, but he is proving to be a tough out.” I should have kept my mouth shut. He is hitting .130/.200/.174 in May and .194/.306/.269 on the season. That’s a far cry from our preseason guess of .264/.335/.353 (and even farther from my less optimistic personal guess of .253/.317/.313). In 820 career plate appearances, Gwynn now owns a line of .254/.330/.320. That’s roughly what Eckstein did last year at age 34.
  • Reader LynchMob asked me to help Padres fans off the ledge after the weekend sweep. I don’t know about that, but here are a couple of questions to consider:
    • Did anyone expect the Padres to have a .605 winning percentage 38 games into the season?
    • Did anyone expect the Padres to survive 2010 without a single three-game losing streak?

    Beyond the fact that the hitters aren’t doing anything, I don’t see a problem. I mean, that is a problem, but it’s nothing new. To be perfectly frank, I don’t see a ledge so there’s nothing I can do to help. Hope that helps.

Latos and Jonathan Sanchez square off again Tuesday night. Should be a good one.