Friday Links (2 Jul 10)

by Geoff Young on Jul 02, 2010 (0) Comments

To-do list: buy stamps, mow lawn, procure sugar daddy, post Friday Links. Well, it’s a start…

  • Young & Hot (Baseball-Reference). But enough about me… Hey, there’s a Mat Latos sighting.
  • Top-10 NWL Players of the Decade (2000-09) (EMazing Ems). No Padres appear on this list, I just wanted to point out that the Eugene Emeralds have a blog.
  • To Matusz, Petco feels like home (U-T). I meant to post this earlier, but then vacation happened. Better late than never, I suppose.
  • The 2010 Amateur Draft: Bulk Investments (Baseball Analysts). The top of that 2007 draft doesn’t look so hot now. Brad Chalk, Mitch Canham, and Danny Payne have been particularly disappointing. I never understood the Chalk/Payne picks at the time; they seemed like the same player to me, and one with little upside.
  • Strasburg and the All-Star Game (FanGraphs). Dave Cameron wants to see Stephen Strasburg pitch in the All-Star game. I want to see the All-Star game disappear.
  • On The Road With Madfriars: Portland (Friar Forecast). John Conniff talks about the Portland Beavers. He also hits up the Emeralds.
  • Burning topic: Will bullpen burn out? (U-T). Good question. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Keeping Score: What’s Made Padres Better? Pitching (New York Times). Sean Forman talks about the Padres. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Gabby (languagehat). Sometimes life and baseball collide. This fun one from one of my favorite non-baseball blogs talks about the nickname of old-time big-league catcher Gabby Street. Follow the links and read the comments — good stuff.
  • Kevin Correia’s GB/FB (FanGraphs). R.J. Anderson notes that Correia is serving up more grounders this year than usual. Now if he can just find a way to turn some of those into outs…
  • Letter to Yaz: an Update (Cardboard Gods). Thirty years later, Josh finally gets his Carl Yastrzemski autograph. Geez, and I thought I was late with the Matusz link… [h/t Baseball-Reference]
  • Jeff Moorad: Padres Have Money to Spend, Will Look for Starting Pitching (FanHouse). Works for me.
  • Lefties in the News (Baseball Analysts). Hmmm, here’s a pitcher that might be available. I love the Cliff Lee subway stories. Also, Jon Garland is listed among the “only candidates to surpass [Jamie] Moyer” in terms of home runs allowed (Moyer served up no. 506 last week, taking over the top spot from the late Robin Roberts). Garland? Really?
  • Ability vs. Appearance (Perpetual Padres Saga). Speaking of Garland, I love this take because it provides such a different perspective from my own. I honestly never thought about the fact that his slow pace means he’s out there longer to watch.
  • Three years of Friar Forecast (Friar Forecast). Big congrats to Myron, Daniel, and the gang.
  • The odds of a cycle (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann crunches numbers. Remember to multiply by zero if the guy plays for the Padres.
  • Interesting New Import Pitchers – Pacific League (FanGraphs). Former Padres right-hander Buddy Carlyle isn’t doing so well in his second trip to Japan.
  • The Padres STILL want to rub salt in a wound… (Bleed Cubbie Blue). The Padres are wearing their ’84 throwback unis the next time the Cubs come to town, and Chicago fans are not amused. Some of the comments are hilarious, in a “someone woke up on the wrong side of the padded cell” kind of way: “The Padres won. That doesn’t give them the right to rub the loss in the other team’s face. They could celebrate their 1984 championship any time — they have chosen twice to rub the Cubs’ noses in it.” I like how a celebration of the first Padres team that ever did anything worth celebrating is somehow all about the Cubs. Please, don’t flatter yourselves. Thankfully, there are other posters who seem to have a clue. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]

There you go. Have a safe and happy Independence Day!

Midseason Minor-League Promotions 2010: Hitters

by Geoff Young on Jul 01, 2010 (0) Comments

A few weeks back, we examined Drew Cumberland and Blake Tekotte. Both were excelling at Lake Elsinore. Both have been promoted to Double-A San Antonio.

Cumberland hit .365/.404/.542 in 60 games for the Storm, so it’s not like California League pitchers were teaching him much. One noteworthy item, however, is that his strike-zone judgment has deteriorated somewhat this season:

Year  PA BB  K   BB%  BB/K
2009 339 40 36 11.80 1.111
2010 290 15 37  5.17  .405

This is hardly cause for alarm and may not mean anything at all, but it bears watching. Even still, Cumberland’s other numbers (you know, the ones that make him look like Tony Gwynn v. 1997) are strong enough to merit a promotion. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: Driving to Portland

by Geoff Young on Jun 30, 2010 (2) Comments

My latest Hardball Times article recounts the recent road trip Mrs. Ducksnorts and I took up I-5 to Portland. It expands on the little nuggets I provided last week and, like the trip itself, wanders all over the place.

We examine some former and current Padres farmhands, a forgotten minor-league star, Portland’s great 1964 rotation, Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz, Jane Austen and William Shakespeare, Willie McCovey and Jeff Bagwell… One of my favorite baseball moments from the trip came courtesy of a certain speedster:

Portland center fielder Luis Durango, whose offensive game calls to mind Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, tripled in the second inning. Durango hit a ball to left-center that Fresno center fielder Eugenio Velez cut off in the gap. When Velez got to the ball, Durango appeared to be pulling up at second base but instead kicked into another gear and beat the throw to third. I don’t know a lot of guys who even try for the extra base there, let alone make it.

I remain skeptical of Durango’s ability to parlay his one fantastic skill into a material big-league career, but the guy is fun to watch.

Anywho, I’m still sifting through my notes, so expect more tales at some point (gotta justify that tax writeoff). Meanwhile, to learn just how awful Josh Geer’s 2009 performance was (although you already have some clue), which popular sitcom from the ’70s and ’80s reminds me of Twelfth Night, and more, check out the first fruits of my labor.

Pitching, Payroll, and… I Need a Third Thing That Begins with ‘P’

by Geoff Young on Jun 28, 2010 (12) Comments

The Padres somehow extended their National League West lead by 3 1/2 games in the nine days I was out on the road. Like everything else this season, it’s kind of stunning. Not that I’m complaining, but shouldn’t the pitching falter at some point? The list of top ERA+ so far this year blows my mind:

Giants: 126
Cardinals: 125
Rays: 122
Padres: 121
Rockies: 120

Here’s how those same teams did in 2009:

Giants: 123 (#1)
Cardinals: 113 (#5)
Rays: 104 (#12)
Padres: 85 (#27)
Rockies: 109 (#8)

The Padres have turned a glaring weakness into a strength. That’s a nice little trick, if you can swing it.

Sure, Jon Garland pads the ERA by inducing his defense into an error-producing coma, but even still, he’s pitching better than expected. The same holds true for the rest of the rotation except Kevin Correia. As for the bullpen, the Padres have the best OPS against in baseball (opponents are hitting .209/.268/.326 off of San Diego’s relievers).

On offense, it’s nice to see Will Venable rejoin the party. Maybe Scott Hairston can follow suit. Meanwhile, Randy Ready’s next project should be to get Chase Headley to stop hitting like David Eckstein.

What else happened while I was gone? Or didn’t happen? Adrian Gonzalez didn’t get traded. Neither did Heath Bell.

The Padres must be bugging the heck out of those “payroll is everything” folks who believe that something must be done to fix whatever they think is broken. Imagine how much better they would be doing if they had invested an extra $50 million in players this year. Why, they might be as good as the Astros:

Padres: $37.8M, .600 WPct
Astros: $92.4M, .382 WPct

Yes, I’m cherry picking, but isn’t this fun?

Quick Thoughts from the Pacific Northwest

by Geoff Young on Jun 22, 2010 (6) Comments

I’m driving all over the place, so transmissions will be few and far between this week. Here’s a brief recap of the story so far:

Day 1: San Diego to Sacramento

  • We tried taking I-15 to avoid LA traffic. It didn’t work, but at least we saw different things while crawling along on the freeway.
  • In ‘N’ Out at Newhall. Can I get an amen?
  • Neko Case and Snow Patrol provided the tunes.
  • I can tell I’m getting too old for these long drives because I become even more disagreeable than usual by the time we reach our destination.
  • We arrived at Raley Field about 15 minutes before first pitch. The ticket line was long, and we ended up spending a lot… for great seats behind the plate. Still, including tri-tip sandwich and Newcastle on draft, I spent more at one RiverCats game than I spend on the Padres in a month.
  • We sat behind the guys charting pitches for the visiting Salt Lake Bees. I’ve talked about this experience and it never gets old. Triple-A teams have a bigger budget than A-ball teams. The pitcher doing the actual charting used a touchscreen computer instead of pencil and paper.
  • I had no rooting interest in this game, so I cheered for players I’d seen at Lake Elsinore. That meant second baseman Eric Sogard for the home team (he singled, hit two deep fly ball outs, and committed a throwing error) and Paul McAnulty for the visitors (he had an RBI single and came in to play third base after we left).
  • We took off after the seventh inning on account of having to leave town early the next morning. I’m told that the postgame fireworks started a half hour after I fell asleep, so good call there.

Day 2: Sacramento to Eugene

  • We woke up at 4:30 a.m. and got out of Sacramento an hour later, running on Cliff Bars and Diet Mountain Dew… Breakfast of Champions.
  • I shall never tire of watching Mt. Shasta peak through the clouds.
  • We arrived at PK Park in Eugene about 5 minutes before first pitch. I need to allow for more lead time when planning these things.
  • Eugene definitely needed an upgrade. The new facility is modern and comfortable, but still has the charm of an old ballpark.
  • The game was… a bit sloppy. The Emeralds came from behind to win basically because Vancouver couldn’t turn a double play or three.
  • The Ems are incredibly young, even by Northwest League standards. A lot of the international signings from 2008 are there, so we’re talking 17- and 18-year-olds.
  • Right-hander Adys Portillo made his season debut. I couldn’t see any radar guns (we sat in the second row off to the third base side, right next to the visitors on-deck circle), but guys were late on his fastball and the mitt was popping. He looked like a pitcher, if a tad wild. Portillo walked three, plunked a guy in the back, and uncorked two wild pitches. I wouldn’t want to face that.
  • Jedd Gyorko (pronounced JER-ko) knocked four singles: one up the middle, two to right, one to left, all line drives. He was drafted as a second baseman but played third base on Sunday. He’s got tree trunk legs… no clue how that’s going to work on the middle of the diamond.
  • Rymer Liriano had trouble with high fastballs… also low breaking balls. That doesn’t leave a lot, but he’s young.
  • A steady drizzle fell throughout the game. After that drive, it was refreshing… and I wasn’t inclined to yield my seat for anything. The beer was a local honey ale on draft whose name escapes me at the moment… mmm, tasty.

Day 3: Eugene to Portland

  • Finally, a short drive… two hours.
  • We ate lunch at Deschutes Brewery… Pork ribs and Cascade Ale (I’d had the Black Butte Porter at dinner the previous night… trying to mix it up a little).
  • We met my friend Timm for dinner and then headed over to PGE Park for a ballgame.
  • Josh Geer tossed a complete game shutout, allowing only four hits. Say wha’? Seriously, I saw it with my own two eyes. We cheered him like crazy.
  • Everth Cabrera started his rehab assignment and looked fine. He didn’t do much to test the hamstring but almost made a terrific diving catch of a line drive… dropped it on making impact with the ground. He also got to show off the arm once or twice. Fun stuff.
  • The baseball situation in Portland is very, very sad. That park was deader than Eugene’s. PGE is going to soccer-only next year and the Beavers may cease to exist, but yikes… You would think a town the size of Portland could support a Triple-A team.

Well, this no longer qualifies as brief so I’d better stop now. I will pop back in when I have a chance, which will be… at some future date. Enjoy!

Friday Links (18 Jun 10)

by Geoff Young on Jun 18, 2010 (5) Comments

Something old, something new… something something, something blue…

  • San Diego Padres 2010 Draft Recap (College Splits). What the title says, with links to all kinds of juicy data. On fifth-round pick Rico Noel: “In three years, he’s been a wizard in the field; his 15 total runs above average in center is the sixth-best defensive mark of anyone (at any position!) in this draft class.”
  • Wait Til Next Year: 2011 Draft Preview – Hitters (FanGraphs). A few Toreros show up on Bryan Smith’s list of players to watch for next year’s draft.
  • The predictably unpredictable career of Jamie Moyer (Hardball Times). Moyer is older than Bo Jackson and Jerry Rice? Who knew… I’m a fan because, well, Moyer is older than me.
  • Edward Mujica: A case of gopheritis (Friar Forecast). Myron finds yet more ways to demonstrate that Edward Mujica gives up a lot of home runs.
  • Joe Torre refuses to talk about the McCourts’ psychic (LA Observed). My friend Alan sends this article about Torre’s thoughts (or lack thereof) on “Vladimir Shpunt, the Russian healer who may have been paid six figures by Frank and Jamie McCourt to beam good vibes toward Dodger Stadium from his TV room in suburban Boston.” Further proof that life is stranger than fiction. Ben Lindbergh at Baseball Prospectus tests the whole V-Energy thing.
  • Former outfielder Azocar dies at 45 (Padres.com). I’m sorry to say I have no recollection of Azocar (he played for the Padres toward the end of my college years, the one time in my life when I didn’t follow baseball obsessively), but Raphy at B-R.com sheds some light. [h/t reader Parlo]
  • How slow could you throw? (Hardball Times). Stupid fun. From Mike Fast’s article: “The slowest actual pitch from 2007-2010 of which I am aware is the 48-mph eephus pitch thrown by Orlando Hernandez to Luis Gonzalez on August 25, 2007.”
  • Umpire leaves Garland all shook up (North County Times). Jon Garland is not a Larry Vanover fan, and who can blame him? [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • More Egregious Umpiring: Yorvit Torrealba Suspended Three Games (FanGraphs). I’ve gotta be honest. I watched this in real time and I’ve watched the video. I don’t think Torrealba has a legitimate beef with Vanover’s call (on that particular pitch; as Garland noted, the strike zone was a bit shaky all night) or his behavior. I’m as fed up as anyone with confrontational umpires, but this isn’t in that category.
  • Padres’ Gregerson keeps ordering up sliders (Yahoo!). Jeff Passan is the latest to hop on the Luke Gregerson bandwagon. Gregerson on his slider: “A lot of guys say they can’t pick up the spin on it. I don’t know why. It’s an aspect of baseball and physics I just don’t understand. Other guys don’t, either, so I guess I can keep throwing it.”
  • Slider sending Gregerson up reliever ranks (Padres.com). More love for the right-hander. Credit former Padres outfielder John VanderWal, now a scout, for recognizing Gregerson’s ability. Quoth Kevin Towers: “He’s telling me how this guy can get big league hitters out right now and how he has a wipeout slider that plays to righties and lefties… He said it disappears.” VanderWal, you may recall, could hit a little.
  • Putting a Face to a Name (It Might Be Dangerous… You Go First). DePo shares video of the Padres top picks in the 2010 draft. More here and here.
  • Prospect Watch: Drew Cumberland (Friar Forecast). Ben offers his thoughts on the young shortstop.
  • Lugo epitomizes Orioles’ season (SweetSpot). Rock on, Dwain Anderson.
  • Offensive Evolution (Part 1) (Baseball-Reference). Andy describes this as the first in “a series of relatively short posts looking at how offense among regular players in baseball has changed through the years.” Part 2 can be found here. Good stuff.
  • The Internet cried a little when you wrote that on it (Hardball Times). Mike Fast examines common PITCHf/x pitfalls.
  • TinCaps Add Valdez, Mikolas to All-Star Roster (Baseball in Fort Wayne). I fell in love with Jeudy Valdez when I saw him at Eugene a couple years ago and he smoked three doubles in a game. Also, he and I share a birthday, so there’s that. Valdez is hitting .252/.312/.419 this year, with 7 HR and 16 SB… not bad numbers for a 21-year-old second baseman in the Midwest League.

That’s all for now. Orioles are in town for the weekend. USD alum Brian Matusz comes home to face the Padres tonight. I’ll be rooting for him to pitch just well enough to lose. Go Toreros. Go Padres.

Nine Years and Five Days of Blogging

by Geoff Young on Jun 17, 2010 (6) Comments

I’m terrible at remembering anniversaries. Seems I missed one over the weekend. Better late than never, eh?

We celebrate/neglect two anniversaries here at Ducksnorts. One, in September, commemorates the original site launch in ’97. The other took place on June 12, when Ducksnorts marked its ninth year of blogging.

Pardon me if you’ve heard this before, but the blog (actually, it was called a “weblog” back then) came into existence on June 12, 2001, with thoughts on Padres first-round pick Jake Gautreau and a rant about ESPN’s center field camera angle.

On Gautreau:

Good balance, good patience, nice approach to the ball. He hit a sharp grounder up the middle that looked like a base hit, but Fullerton second baseman David Bacani came out of nowhere to make a spectacular diving stop and turn it into an inning-ending double play.

In the bottom half of the inning Gautreau made a fine play of his own, sprawling for a bunt that was popped up into foul territory off third base.

On the camera angle:

I’m all for innovation but only when it actually improves on what’s currently in place. It’s not as annoying as listening to Ray Knight (what is?) but one of the things I like to watch in the pitcher-batter matchup is how the ball breaks as it moves toward home plate. That’s easy enough to do with the camera low over the center field fence looking from right behind the pitcher into the catchers mitt, but good luck with this new angle. The only advantage I can see to what ESPN is doing now is that it’s easier to tell whether a pitch is inside, over the plate, or outside. That’s nice in limited quantities (watch the Cubs on WGN for a good example of how to use this technique properly) but it gets old pretty quickly. It’s disorienting to try and track the ball from that angle. Or maybe it’s just me.

Heh. How quaint. Remember, Pitchf/x didn’t exist yet, so camera angles mattered. And we had to walk barefoot in the snow, uphill both ways, but we didn’t complain because that only made us stronger and appreciate what we had.

If you’re wondering, the Padres are 4-5 on June 12 since the blog launched:

Nine years. That is a long time to spend in one basement. No wonder I’m so out of touch.

And hungry. Could someone fling me a steak down here?

Me, Elsewhere: Cabrera and Seven Other Second-Year Players

by Geoff Young on Jun 16, 2010 (0) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times revisits eight position players who garnered regular playing time as rookies in 2009. Some, such as the Cardinals’ Colby Rasmus and the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen are enjoying terrific sophomore campaigns. Others, such as the White Sox’s Gordon Beckham and the Padres’ Everth Cabrera, are struggling.

From the segment on Cabrera:

Cabrera’s comps included Rafael Furcal, Pete Rose, Chuck Knoblauch and Steve Sax. I’ve also acknowledged that his downside could be Mike Caruso. Unfortunately, so far, Cabrera’s sophomore season is looking more like Caruso’s than those of the others.

Cabrera is hitting .212/.257/.283 (53 OPS+) and in the midst of his second disabled list stint due to a strained right hamstring (not an injury a player who relies so heavily on running ability can afford to sustain). Caruso was a year younger when his game fell apart; he hit .250/.280/.297 (47 OPS+) for the Chicago White Sox in 1999 and then essentially disappeared.

Cabrera isn’t there… yet. However, when he returns to the active roster, he will need to do a better job of getting on base. His walk rate this year (4.6 percent) is less than half what it was in 2009 (10.5 percent), which isn’t a trend you’d like to see from someone who should be a top-of-the-order hitter.

As is the case with Beckham, Cabrera has youth on his side for now. He’s got nearly a full season’s worth of plate appearances under his belt at the big-league level, posting a .246/.325/.345 (89 OPS+) line during that stretch. Accounting for offensive environments, that still puts him pretty well in line with Furcal at the same stage:

Player   PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Cabrera 547 .246 .325 .345  89
Furcal  901 .286 .365 .377  89

It would be nice if Cabrera can come back strong when he returns from the DL. Jerry Hairston Jr. has done a capable job in his absence, but the Padres could use a guy with Cabrera’s skill set in the short term and in the long term. Here’s hoping…

Mister Cunningham, I Presume

by Geoff Young on Jun 16, 2010 (3) Comments

It went down like this on Tuesday:

Zach said in the comments: “Why does Buddy [Black] hate Aaron Cunningham? And I’m pretty sure the Will Venable experiment should be over. I’ll always treasure those two months in 2009 when he looked like a major leaguer.”

I replied: “Not that I mind seeing Cunningham get a look, but check out his and Venable’s 2010 stats so far:

Venable MLB: 202 PA, .227/.297/.370
Cunningham AAA: 201 PA, .239/.307/.383

He hasn’t been killing the ball at Portland.”

Cunningham then said: “Shut up.”

Game. Set. Match.

* * *

The pitch Cunningham hit for the grand slam was a change-up down and away. Brett Cecil caught too much plate, but Cunningham did a nice job of staying back on the ball and… you know, it takes some upper body strength to hit one out to center field at Petco Park using mostly arms. I didn’t think the ball had a chance to leave the yard when he hit it.

Cunningham doubled to right-center later in the game. Not bad for the “other” guy acquired in the Kevin Kouzmanoff/Scott Hairston deal.

* * *

I’m not sure what Chase Headley’s problem is at the plate (anecdotally, it seems like he’s lunging at a lot of off-speed stuff), but he is playing a terrific third base. He started a sweet 5-2-3 double play with the bases loaded and nobody out in the first inning of Saturday’s contest against the Mariners that changed the entire complexion of the game. On Tuesday night, he made a diving stop of a shot off the bat of John Buck that lacked the impact of Saturday’s play but not the impressiveness.

* * *

Mat Latos pitched another gem. He needed just 93 pitches to work 6 2/3 innings. The only trouble came with two out in the fourth, when he gave up a double to Adam Lind, plunked Vernon Wells on a 1-2 fastball, and allowed consecutive singles to Alex Gonzalez and Lyle Overbay that brought home Toronto’s only two runs of the night. Latos needed 26 pitches to get through that inning. Otherwise, he was the picture of efficiency. Or should I say pitcher?

* * *

David Eckstein is ready for the U.S. Open. He’s got the pitching wedge working big time.

* * *

It was great to see so many fans out at the game, supporting the home team. The Padres, owners of the National League’s best record, drew 15,266 for this one but it felt like at least 16,000. I got to wondering how many of those fans are of the bandwagon variety. I tried to work it out on the back of an envelope and got a divide-by-zero error.

Forget being proud of our city’s team, I’m proud of our city’s team’s fans. Way to represent.

Talking to Myself: Sometimes I Even Make Sense

by Geoff Young on Jun 15, 2010 (9) Comments

The Padres lost on Monday, 6-3, to the Blue Jays. I offered some thoughts on Twitter (some didn’t make it thanks to a surprise visit by the Fail Whale) and figured I’d look back to see if any of it makes sense the next morning.

To clarify, what follows is commentary on commentary of an actual thing. If you’re not sure what you’re looking at just now, that would be the bottom of the barrel. Welcome to my world…

Ugh. Home run, John Buck. I guess that’s what the Blue Jays do.

This was the first of two Buck homers, a low line drive that just cleared the fence in left. The ball deflected off a fan’s hands and into the area behind the Padres team store where fans used to watch games while standing on the same ground as the players. I’m not sure if that’s still open these days. It’s a shame if not, because that was pretty cool.

And yeah, the Jays do hit a lot of home runs. They lead the big leagues with 101, which is 17 more than second-place Boston. Before Tuesday night’s contest, their top three guys (Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Alex Gonzalez) had outhomered the entire Padres team, 46-45. They didn’t seem to be intimidated in the least by Petco Park, although Bautista did crush a ball to center in the fifth that might have gone out in other places.

DeWayne Wise, just up from the minors, also flirted with a couple of homers. One landed for a double in the second, the other hooked just foul in the eighth. At least Wells has a history of hitting sometimes. But Buck, Bautista, Gonzalez, and Wise… what’s their excuse? Continue reading ›