Decker and Hagerty

by Geoff Young on Jul 17, 2010 (0) Comments

Remember how Jaff Decker got off to a horrendous start this season after missing extensive time due to a hamstring injury? Nathaniel at Chicken Friars advised us not to worry and he was right. Decker has shaken off the rust in a big way:

Month(s) PA   BA  OBP  SLG  BB%   K%
May      62 .140 .210 .263  4.8 40.3
Jun-Jul 166 .295 .392 .468 12.7 18.1

The usual small sample caveats apply, but if that second line looks familiar, remember what Decker did last year at Fort Wayne:

 PA   BA  OBP  SLG  BB%   K%
455 .299 .422 .514 18.7 20.2

Not quite, but almost… Regardless, whatever was bothering him before ain’t bothering him anymore.

Speaking of prospects, one guy who has caught my eye is TinCaps catcher Jason Hagerty. Taken in the fifth round of the 2009 draft out of the University of Miami, Hagerty is putting up some numbers in the Midwest League. He’s a little on the old side (it might not be the worst thing in the world to be aggressive in promoting him), but check out how Hagerty’s age 22 campaign at Fort Wayne compares with that of another catcher we know and love:

Player        Year Age Lvl  PA   BA  OBP  SLG  BB%   K%
Jason Hagerty 2010  22   A 342 .286 .404 .461 15.2 19.0
Nick Hundley  2006  22   A 248 .274 .355 .474 10.1 18.1

No two snowflakes, etc., but I like that the Padres at least appear to have someone on the horizon. I’m a huge fan of Hundley, but I’m also a huge fan of contingency plans. It’s pretty clear that Mitch Canham isn’t a viable part of any such plans… Hagerty just might be.

Friday Links (16 Jul 10)

by Geoff Young on Jul 16, 2010 (10) Comments

Before we get to the links, I have two questions for you:

  1. Do you find these link dumps useful and/or interesting?
  2. Are there any baseball blogs/web sites I should be reading that don’t show up here?

While you’re thinking, let’s take a little trip…

That was a good drum break. Now back to the season. Let’s win some games, eh?

Me, Elsewhere: Not Tall, Just Good

by Geoff Young on Jul 14, 2010 (4) Comments

My latest Hardball Times article focuses on the little people. I’m not talking metaphorically here:

I thought it might be fun to highlight some players who enjoyed considerable success despite being “vertically challenged.” Since I’m such a fan of creating fake teams, I decided to assemble a squad of short players who were also very good (or good players who were also very short, if you prefer).

There are a few Padres connections. Matt Stairs is our team’s first baseman, while former first-base coach Davey Lopes is our reserve infielder. Also, pretty much by default, Fred Norman is our left-handed pitcher.

Norman spent parts of 1971-1973 in San Diego and went a remarkable 13-30. His record everywhere else was 91-73, but playing for the Padres back then would do that to a guy. Still, he retains a place in our hearts.

I tried coming up with a short (5’9″ and under) team for the Padres, but it wasn’t easy. Here are the best guys I found at each position:

Pos Player              PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ Comment
C   Humberto Quintero  102 .242 .284 .337  68  He was our only choice
1B  Alex Pelaez          8 .250 .250 .250  39  See Quintero; a local product
2B  Quilvio Veras     1788 .270 .366 .353  95  Hey, an actual good player
3B  Luis Salazar      2383 .267 .298 .375  90  All-time Padres leader in games played at 3B
SS  Enzo Hernandez    2609 .225 .283 .267  61  The legend
LF  Eric Young         310 .241 .320 .348  69  It was either him or Tony Gonzalez
CF  Jarvis Brown       157 .233 .335 .331  78  See Pelaez
RF  Jim Vatcher         44 .222 .349 .250  71  See Brown
UT  David Eckstein     893 .268 .325 .341  88  Haters be hatin'
UT  Jerry Turner      1686 .259 .321 .390 103  Our best hitter played all three OF positions

                 IP  W-L   ERA ERA+
RHP Tom Phoebus 139  3-12 4.60  72
LHP Fred Norman 413 13-30 3.55  94

There are many ways to make the Padres look bad, but I may have found the worst. What a terrible All-Short team they have.

Anyway, the squad I managed to assemble drawing from a larger pool of players is quite good; it includes Hall of Famers and everything. But don’t take my word for it, read the full article.

Friar Forecast’s Padres 2010 Trade Deadline Primer

by Geoff Young on Jul 13, 2010 (0) Comments

Friend of Ducksnorts Myron Logan (Friar Forecast) has teamed up with John Bonnes and the gang at TwinsCentric to produce an e-book called the 2010 Trade Deadline Primer. Myron contributed the chapter on the Padres (duh) and did a terrific job with it.

I will steal from the marketing folks for this next bit:

Whether you’re a Padres fan, a baseball expert or a fantasy baseball guru, this is your reference guide to the 2010 trading season. Written by Myron Logan of Friar Forecast and a host of experts from other teams, this 160+ page e-book provides all the info you’ll ever need:

  • Foreword by Rob Neyer of espn.com
  • Summaries of what every other team is looking to do at the deadline, including how it could help your fantasy team
  • 150+ easily referenced trade targets with breakdowns
  • 120+ impact prospects
  • Essays about what other teams in the NL West may be focusing on

Order now and you’ll receive your copy within minutes!

Yes, that really is how marketing people talk… Anyway, go check it out and support your friendly neighborhood blogger if you are so inclined.

That Was Fun… and So Was That

by Geoff Young on Jul 12, 2010 (9) Comments

Thoughts on Sunday’s win

I don’t know if that was a must-win game (aren’t they all?), but it sure was nice to avoid the sweep in Colorado headed into the All-Star break. The Rockies are a talented team, and they always seem to get stronger as the season progresses. I’d be lying if I said they didn’t concern me.

  • Everth Cabrera picked a great time to launch his first homer of the season.
  • Luke Gregerson, who has had a disastrous July (1-3, 15.75 ERA, .412/.545/.941 line against), worked his first scoreless outing of the month to pick up the win.
  • Heath Bell, entering in the eighth to replace an injured Mike Adams, notched the five-out save.
  • As for Adams, he says of his left oblique: “Hopefully, four days is all I need, but it feels like it might be more than that.”
  • It’s still a small sample, and I worry about his horrendous strikeout-to-walk ratio, but Aaron Cunningham is starting to look legit to me.

Thoughts on the season’s first half

Basically, it was a blast. But you want details. Very well, then:

  • The Padres enter the All-Star break with a 51-37 record, in sole possession of first place in the National League West.
  • They’ve had at least a share of first place for 79 of the season’s first 97 days (81.4%).
  • Only the Atlanta Braves (52-36) own a better record in the NL.
  • The Padres haven’t been this good through 88 games in a while; actually, they’re playing kind of like the ’84 and ’07 teams: 
    Year  W  L  Pct GB  RS  RA Pyth
2010 51 37 .580 -- 376 304 .596
2009 36 52 .409 20 334 444 .373
2008 35 53 .398  8 327 413 .395
2007 49 39 .557 -- 377 306 .594
2006 48 40 .545 -- 393 369 .529
2005 47 41 .534 -- 398 380 .521
2004 47 41 .534  2 377 360 .521
...
1998 57 31 .648 -- 443 338 .621
...
1984 52 36 .591 -- 390 347 .553
  • They haven’t lost more than three consecutive games this season.
  • They’re doing all this despite minimal contributions from their projected shortstop, left fielder, and #1 starter.
  • The Padres have thrown 12 shutouts, which is three more than they threw in all of 2009.
  • Remember back in May, when the Padres had that crazy team ERA+ of 140 that I said was unsustainable? Well, it’s down to a more reasonable but still impressive 111. This and the injury to Adams suggest to me that the Padres will need to lean on some of that minor-league pitching depth in the second half. In alphabetical order, here are some names I’m guessing we might see at some point: 
    Name           Age Lvl  G   IP ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9   K/9
Ernesto Frieri  24 AAA 34 37.2 1.43 3.35 0.48 4.30 11.71
Brandon Gomes   25  AA 30 44.2 2.22 7.05 0.40 3.02 10.88
Craig Italiano  23  AA 37 41.1 1.31 6.75 0.00 4.57  6.53
Scott Munter    30 AAA 32 53.0 2.21 6.79 0.17 2.89  8.15
Evan Scribner   24  AA 32 41.0 2.20 7.24 0.88 1.32 11.63
  • Alternatively, they could trade for an arm; I wouldn’t be opposed to that.

This is going to be a fun second half. Four teams are within four games of first place, and the Padres have played so far beyond what I expected that everything from here on out is gravy. Don’t get me wrong, now that they’re in this position, I want to see them win it all. But as someone who picked them to win 75 games, I’m pretty stunned at what they’ve accomplished so far.

People ask me how the Padres have done it. I shrug my shoulders. We can (and will) analyze stuff all we like; baseball doesn’t care about that… it does what it does.

Friday Links (9 Jul 10)

by Geoff Young on Jul 09, 2010 (6) Comments

I’m glad Jerry Hairston Jr. finally hit a home run away from San Diego Thursday night. That’s his first road homer of the year, to go with the five he’s hit at home. I was beginning to fear that maybe Hairston’s power was just a product of Petco Park…

  • Tagg, You’re It: A Conversation with Eric Nusbaum (FanGraphs). Nusbaum and Carson Cistuli discuss former Padres farmhand Tagg Bozied’s walk-off grand slam that ended with a blown-out knee. It’s a good read, although it overstates the prospect status of Bozied, who was a DH with some power… basically a less patient, right-handed version of Paul McAnulty. Bozied could have had a marginal career if things had broken right for him, which they didn’t.
  • Clemens too tough to hit in Derby (MiLB.com). Missions represent. San Antonio first baseman Matt Clark won the Texas League Home Run Derby, while catcher Luis Martinez was named MVP of the All-Star Game. For some reason, this article seems to be about Koby Clemens, who didn’t win anything but whose last name is Clemens… so congrats on that, anyway.
  • Obscuring To New Heights in Lake Elsinore (Ben’s Biz Blog). This took place while I was cavorting about the Pacific Northwest… so bummed I missed the fish-tossing contest.
  • Buy or sell: Is there any question? (Friar Forecast). I was going to write about this earlier in the week but then, as he so often does, Myron said what I would have said: “It is not easy to build a .588 team with a good shot at the playoffs, so once it happens, even if by accident, it doesn’t usually make sense to disassemble it.” Yeah, you pretty much have to go for it. The thing is, I’m not sure more than a few minor tweaks are needed.
  • For the Padres and Blue Jays, winning isn’t always the best thing (SI.com). Tim Marchman notes that the Padres find themselves “in a precarious position” with all their winning in what was expected to be a down year: “The slight shame of things for the club is that no matter how well they’re playing, in the abstract the best move would probably be to trade [Adrian] Gonzalez, a free agent after the 2011 season.” [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • I-5 Run Rally. I recently stumbled onto Scott Grauer’s blog that provides previews and reviews of every game in the Cal League. Pretty cool.
  • The Worst Relief Outings Since 2002 (FanGraphs). Hideki Irabu shows up on this list. As longtime Ducksnorts readers know, I am forever connected with Irabu. He and I were born on the same day, and Irabu’s spurning of the Padres in ’97 inspired the creation of this site.
  • Back to the Doc (The Official Blog of Matt Antonelli). Antonelli shares the latest in his efforts to return from injury and offers some thoughts on exercise equipment: “I always used to make fun of people when I saw them riding the elliptical machines, especially athletes, but I must say they are actually a pretty good workout. I tried one for the first time in my life about a week ago and have spent at least ten minutes a day on it since. I was wrong and I’m sorry if I offended any elliptical fans out there.” Heh, wait until you are older and your knees are shot to the point where you can’t really do much in the way of impact stuff. Oops, we were talking about you, weren’t we?
  • Who Are Creating Outs Running the Bases? (FanGraphs). The Padres run into a lot of outs… more than any other team in the National League, in fact. Aggressiveness on the basepaths will do that, I suppose.Back to back rallies fall just short (Padres Trail). Mike is concerned that the pitching might be “starting to wear down a little bit.”
  • Looking for a sound investment? Take these predictions to the bank (SI.com). Quoth Joe Sheehan: “Despite its current lofty standing, San Diego will not win the NL West or the NL wild card.” He may be right, although I don’t know about taking anything to the bank. The National League West has been incredibly tough this season and I don’t see that letting up any time soon. I remain concerned that at least one of the Giants or Rockies will make a serious run at some point. [h/t reader Sean Callahan]
  • We’re in America, so I’m speaking American (Watson Files). Dan notes that Edinson Rincon’s hitting has improved, Jonathan Galvez’s defense has improved, and fifth-round pick Rico Noel is fast. Dan also articulates some of the perils associated with being a game’s official scorer: “No matter what the call, no matter if the game’s at home or on the road, coaches believe they are being hosed by the official scorer. The conspiracy theories are more far-fetched than the ones hatched by Kramer and Newman.” Yeah. Been there, done that.
  • Top four pitching picks still unsigned (U-T). The deadline is August 16.

There you go. Happy Friday!

With Half a Season Remaining, I’m Already Running Low on Ellipses

by Geoff Young on Jul 08, 2010 (1) Comments

One of the joys of east coast road trips is that, thanks to the day gig, I almost never catch any of the action. I heard exactly two pitches as I started driving home on Tuesday evening: strike one and game over. Well, that was a nice way to pass the time during my commute.

Wednedsay was almost as much fun. I got to hear Matt Stairs’ pinch-hit home run off Washington “closer” Matt Capps. It sounded exciting and actually brought the Padres back to within one run.

That’s as close as they would get, of course, but I like that this team doesn’t give up. One measure of success is level of expectation. I’ve gotten so spoiled with this year’s Padres that when they’re down and it’s close late, I assume they will come back to win. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: Call Him Deacon Blues

by Geoff Young on Jul 07, 2010 (3) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times recounts the career of former Padres farmhand Warren Newson, who could have had a darned good career if given the chance. The Padres selected Newson in the fourth round of the 1986 January draft (they’d tabbed right-hander Doug Brocail in the first round) and he proceeded to post silly numbers in the minor leagues.

Not that such comparisons always mean much, but check out how Newson’s age 24 campaign stacks up against that of another pretty good hitter from roughly the same era:

            Year Age  Level  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Newson      1989  24     AA 536 .304 .436 .506
Rusty Greer 1993  24 AA/AAA 568 .287 .365 .461

These kinds of comps are fun; I used to run them all the time in the hope of learning something useful. Then Sean Burroughs came along and ruined all the fun:

          Year Age  Level  PA   BA  OBP  SLG Rnk*
Burroughs 2001  20    AAA 439 .322 .386 .467   6
Jim Thome 1991  20 AA/AAA 511 .319 .395 .449  93

*Baseball America preseason ranking

Well, at least one of those guys will end up in the Hall of Fame. As for Newson, he managed to put together some nice seasons as a role player for the Chicago White Sox in the late-’90s. His best work, however, came in the minors… Newson’s 2000 Mexican League season is particularly epic.

Check out the entire article if you are so inclined. It beats thinking about Ryan Zimmerman…

Stuff on My Mind: Stolen Bases, Broadcasters, Poet Laureates, and Such

by Geoff Young on Jul 05, 2010 (2) Comments

I keep notes in a book that resembles nothing so much as a mess. Typically I use these notes as the basis for articles here, there, and everywhere.

Sometimes stuff doesn’t get used right away, so I periodically flip through my book to see if there’s anything that interested me at one point that might be worth revisiting. Today I found some items.

This is probably more of an explanation than you need, but now I won’t feel as bad about presenting something that is so incredibly disjointed.

* * *

Much was made before the season about the Padres’ commitment to more aggressive baserunning. They led MLB with 50 stolen bases during spring training and started the regular season in much the same way. Since then, however, they have slowed down with each passing month:

Mon  SB CS SBO  SB% SBA%
Mar* 50 16 323 .758 .204
Apr  25  6 221 .806 .140
May  29 11 298 .725 .134
Jun  15 10 234 .600 .107

SBO=1B+BB+HBP
SBA%=(SB+CS)/SBO

*These are spring training statistics, which aren’t the same as regular-season statistics, but I figured they are useful for illustration purposes so I included them.

The gist of the above table is that the Padres aren’t running as often as they did at the beginning of the season, nor are they as successful now as they were earlier. There are many possible reasons for this, but those are not my concern right now. Whatever the cause(s), it’s an interesting trend… not that I pretend to know what impact it might be having on the team’s success.

* * *

I’ve been meaning to mention Mark Neely’s fine work filling in for Dick Enberg while Enberg is off covering Wimbledon. I love listening to Enberg, but it’s great that the Padres have an ace up their sleeve who can step up and deliver without any real dropoff. Continue reading ›

Stay Healthy, My Friends

by Geoff Young on Jul 04, 2010 (3) Comments

Congratulations to Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez on being named to the National League All-Star team. Now that you have been thus honored, I make a humble request: Don’t play in the game. If that is not possible, don’t engage in any risky behavior that could jeopardize your chances to help a team that surprisingly finds itself in the thick of a pennant race. Such behavior includes but is not limited to:

  • Swinging a bat
  • Throwing a ball
  • Running

Steer clear of those, and you should be okay…