Welcome to the Broomtown

by Geoff Young on Jul 26, 2010 (6) Comments

The weekend sweep in Pittsburgh sure was nice. On the heels of a series loss in Atlanta, and with the Giants kicking around the Arizona Rollovers, the Padres needed those wins.

Mat Latos, fully recovered from his sneeze, worked six strong innings in Saturday’s 9-2 victory. His fastball came in at its usual 92-95 mph, and he mixed his pitches well.

Latos made two mistakes all night, allowing a solo homer to Jose Tabata in the third and another to Delwyn Young in the fifth. Other than those minor hiccups, it was business as usual for the young right-hander. Continue reading ›

Three Random Comparisons

by Geoff Young on Jul 24, 2010 (10) Comments

Just some stuff that’s been on my mind of late… stats are through July 22.

Nick Hundley, Ron Karkovice, Jason LaRue, Mike Macfarlane

In the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual, I compared Hundley to a couple of defense-first, swing-for-the-fences catchers. In the interest of accountability, I thought I’d see how these guys stack up at the same stage in their respective careers. I threw in Macfarlane as well, since I’d compared Hundley to him in the 2008 Annual. The following are through roughly 722 career plate appearances:

Player     Age   G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG
Hundley     26 196 646 72 157 34  5 18  83 60 174 .243 .307 .395
Karkovice   26 255 644 78 141 30  2 18  73 46 210 .219 .273 .356
LaRue       28 219 650 71 152 35  2 21  77 49 186 .234 .306 .391
Macfarlane  26 230 662 66 173 41  3 10  93 45 110 .261 .314 .378

What does all this mean? No clue, but I find it interesting.

Chase Headley, Kevin Kouzmanoff

We were talking on Friarhood Radio earlier in the week about the perception that Headley has been a disappointment. It is my opinion that much of this perception is based on false expectations raised as a result of his monster 2007 campaign at San Antonio, as well as the fact that are no marquee bats to surround Adrian Gonzalez in the Padres lineup.

I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s pretty clear now — as it was at the time — that the Padres moved the right third baseman. For as much as I love Kouz, the fact is that Headley is younger, cheaper, and better. Here’s how both have fared so far in 2010:

Player     Age     $M  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+  Fld% RF/9 WAR
Headley     26  .4277 407 .271 .323 .381 100  .967  2.51 2.5
Kouzmanoff  28 3.1000 382 .270 .304 .398  90  .967  2.67 0.7

They’re basically the same player right now, but one costs a lot less and has upside. He’s the one still playing in San Diego.

Jerry Hairston Jr., Miguel Tejada

We also talked about rumors that the Padres might be looking to acquire Baltimore third baseman Miguel Tejada. I admitted that Tejada didn’t excite me much, mainly because he isn’t really a shortstop anymore and he isn’t really a hitter anymore. I noted that Tejada is having Hairston’s season and that such a comparison wasn’t a compliment.

Allow me to clarify for a moment: I love what Hairston has brought to the Padres. He’s done a fine job and helped pick up the club when Everth Cabrera couldn’t get it done at shortstop this year. That said, Hairston came here as a utility player. There were no illusions about what kind of player he was and is.

On the other hand, as we’ve seen with Headley (and many other guys), once you acquire a tag, it can be hard to shake. With Tejada, people may be tempted to think of him as a former MVP rather than as a badly fading star. The point in comparing him with Hairston is that you can (as the Padres did with Hairston) find players of that caliber without giving anything of value and it would be a mistake to pay much beyond, say, a Double-A reliever.

Anyway, I didn’t mean to disparage Hairston in my comments on Friarhood Radio. I just wanted to explain that Tejada, at this stage in his career, is not a difference maker. To the comparison:

Player   Age    $M  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+  WAR
Hairston  34 2.125 343 .253 .312 .360  91   0.9
Tejada    36 6.000 402 .271 .311 .370  83  -0.2

Add in the fact that Tejada has yet to play a single inning at shortstop this year, and I’m not sure I see the point in acquiring him. I understand that David Eckstein is hurt, but why not just bring back Lance Zawadzki? He’s not great, but neither is Tejada. One of those guys is cheap, already in the organization, and able to play the middle infield.

Radio Wrapup

by Geoff Young on Jul 23, 2010 (0) Comments

I was fortunate enough to appear on three different radio programs this past week. Archived versions of two are available online:

The third, with Elliott Price and the gang at The Team 990, happened in real time only and is lost to the world forever. If you missed it, you will have to take my word that it was the bomb diggity.

Thanks to all of my gracious hosts for having me on their shows. I feel so loved when the Padres are playing well…

Friday Links (23 Jul 10)

by Geoff Young on Jul 23, 2010 (2) Comments

Go, read stuff. It’ll be great…

  • Great Moments In Padres Trade Deadline History: The Joe Randa Era (619 Sports). Guest author Avenger in Chief remembers everyone’s favorite non-descript third baseman.
  • Radbourn’s immortal season July 10, 1884: Going to Carrie’s house (Edward Achorn). If you’re a fan of baseball history, you need to be reading Achorn’s diary of Old Hoss Radbourn’s 1884 season. It’s like stepping into another world… fantastic stuff.
  • A Retro-Review of the 1940s (Retrosheet). Speaking of history, Tom Ruane has published a comprehensive article on baseball in the ’40s. It checks in at a little over 26,000 words and contains 65 footnotes, so best to read in installments… but definitely worth the effort.
  • Bengie Molina and the cycle (Hardball Times). I like that Molina had a better chance of hitting for the cycle than Tony Gwynn Jr. [h/t reader Didi]
  • Gonzalez likely is gonzo, it’s now a matter of when (Boston Globe). Nick Cafardo — or as I like to call him, “Who?” — is licking his chops at the thought of Adrian Gonzalez eventually leaving San Diego… if not now, then at least some day. Cafardo is the guy who took offense when Brian Giles invoked his no-trade clause a couple of years ago and blocked a potential deal to Boston. Someone needs to bust out their Sinead O’Connor collection. Might I recommend her 1990 release, I Do Not Want What I Haven’t Got. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • San Diego Padres song (Youtube). If you caught me on Team 990 AM in Montreal earlier this week (or even if you didn’t), Elliott Price and the gang were playing this song when I joined them. It was really… what is the word for je no sais quoi?
  • Marlins to Consider Padres’ Ted Simmons for Managerial Opening (Fanhouse). Simmons strikes me as a smart guy; I’m guessing he’d make a good manager. [h/t Baseball Reference]
  • Sabermetrics Library. I haven’t had a chance to dig around this yet, but it looks promising. Thanks to fellow SweetSpot blogger Jack Moore at Disciples of Uecker for the heads-up.
  • Behind the scenes with the McCourts (Dodger Thoughts). Jon takes a closer look at LA’s favorite train wreck:

    There are six copies of the marital property agreement for some reason. Jamie signed all six in Boston. Frank signed three in Boston and three two weeks later in L.A. Those documents have been in a vault in a law office for the past six years. They were flown to Long Beach yesterday (via private plane, I’m sure) to be examined by forensic scientists.

    When you start to get the forensic scientists involved, something has gone horribly wrong. I’m so grateful that the Padres’ divorce issues are behind them. [h/t Neyer]

  • Wednesday Graph: The Difference Between Two Pablos (Bay City Ball). Chris Quick examines the difference between Pablo Sandoval v. 2010 and last year’s vintage: “I’ve always feared that Sandoval could have a bad BABIP year and look worse than he actually is.” The scary part, to me, is that the Giants are still in the thick of this race even without his help. If he starts hitting, we could have a problem.
  • Indefensible (Baseball Prospectus). Colin Wyers asks, “What do we really know about defense?” Mike Fast joins in the fun at Hardball Times, while further discussion can be found at The Book. It seems like we’ve been talking about this stuff for years, but I guess everyone is starting to get hip to it now. That’s a good sign.
  • Mattingly’s mound of trouble for Dodgers (Yahoo!). History repeats itself. This is one of the things I loved about Bruce Bochy. [h/t LynchMob]
  • Best and Worst Clutch Hitters of the Retrosheet era (The Book). Tony Gwynn was clutch, as was another SDSU alum, Mark Grace. [h/t reader Aaron]
  • Trade Bait or Padres Top 20+ Prospects (Websoulsurfer). Pretty much what it says.
  • Davis reinvents himself as pitcher (SI.com). Jeff Pearlman talks about former Padres catcher Ben Davis, who is still trying to make something of his baseball career: “That was 11 years ago. Now there is no trace of cockiness. Not one trace.” Sigh… We could have used a little less cockiness 11 years ago, no? Once again, youth is wasted on the young. Maybe someday Davis and Matt Bush can sit around the campfire and talk about how awesome they were in high school. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Seattle and Baserunning (FanGraphs). “One of the ways we analyze when (or if) the Mariners should be taking risks on the basepaths is by looking at run expectancy charts and empirical data. Using a Markov Chain to generate a run expectancy table we can then figure out the break-even points for various out states surrounding the aforementioned situation.” Some smart person should run numbers for the Padres.
  • NERD for Baserunning (FanGraphs). Carson Cistuli attempts to answer the question of what makes an interesting baserunner. In so doing, he gives us some lists. I love lists. Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Will Venable run well; Adrian Gonzalez doesn’t. Not exactly man bites dog, but how about Kyle Blanks right there with Gwynn?
  • Padres’ Buddy system (U-T). Tim Sullivan talks about Bud Black and his three-year contract extension. I love this quote from GM Jed Hoyer, which confirms my own suspicions on the subject: “I almost felt badly that we were playing well when we started discussing it. I didn’t want the results to cloud why we were doing it.”
  • Braves built to last, Padres aren’t (FOX Sports). I almost didn’t link to this because it’s utter crap, but apparently enough Padres got worked up about the article to have it posted in the clubhouse… as if they needed the motivation. My only gripe with the piece — and this may be nitpicking on my part — is that it makes no sense at all. I won’t bore you with details, but here’s a fun passage: “Luke Gregerson, whose setup role becomes even more important with [Mike] Adams out, may struggle to maintain his stuff because of how many sliders he throws.” It’s a good thing no supporting evidence is offered, because that would only detract from the point. Then again, the Braves did take two out of three from the Padres in Atlanta. As anyone with half a brain will tell you, three games is plenty to make firm judgments about a team’s ability. As the rest of us will tell you, dude go find the other half of your brain. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Twins summon Slama for pen help, send down Burnett (USA Today). USD alum Anthony Slama has been recalled by the Minnesota Twins. Big congrats to Slama, and go Toreros! Seth at TwinsCentric talks more about the right-hander.
  • Pitchers’ wOBA Against, 2010 (Hardball Times). News flash: Mat Latos is pretty good.
  • DL (Inside the Padres). Speaking of Latos, here’s what Tom Krasovic has to say about his injury: “I watched Latos throw a bullpen over the weekend. If his side is bothering him in the least, it was not evident. The Tattooed One was popping the mitt.”
  • Gonzalez says he would be ‘happy’ to stay (U-T). “I don’t want to compete. I want to be on a winning team.” We’ve heard other players say this. I’m pretty well immune to it by now.
  • Who will it be? Corey Hart? (RJ’s Fro). Beautown wants to see Hart in San Diego.
  • Padres affiliate may be on move (U-T). Sounds like things are getting semi-serious between the Padres and Escondido.
  • Moorad group still seeking a home for Triple-A affiliate (NC Times). Count Hoyer among the fans of having minor league teams near the big club, as is the case in Boston, where three affiliates play their home games within 110 miles of Fenway.

Okay, that may have been too much. Then again, too much is never enough. Happy Friday…

The Bud Black Extension

by Geoff Young on Jul 22, 2010 (1) Comments

As you probably know, Padres skipper Bud Black has had his contract extended through 2013, with club options for 2014 and 2015. I should say a few words about that. Okay: I like it.

Hmmm, maybe that was too few words. Let me elaborate. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: Revisiting Some Freakish Starts

by Geoff Young on Jul 21, 2010 (0) Comments

My latest Hardball Times article revisits several players who got off to “unusual” starts this year. There isn’t much of a Padres connection, although I suppose there have been rumblings that the club might have interest in Cleveland right-hander Jake Westbrook. Another player featured in the article is Nationals outfielder Josh Willingham. I’ve expressed my desire to see him in a Padres uniform, although I don’t think that will happen.

Willingham is an interesting cat, and not just because he can play a little. The guy was taken in the 17th round of the 2000 draft. That’s not Mike Piazza late, but still… To provide some perspective, the Padres have made 43 picks in that round over the years. Four of those players reached the big leagues, although two (Glen Cook, 1980; Brandon Fahey, 1999) never signed with San Diego and a third, Matt Mieske, was traded (with Ricky Bones and Jose Valentin) for Gary Sheffield while still in the minors.

Only one 17th-round pick of the Padres has made it to San Diego. That would be Brian Lawrence, who won 49 games over five seasons here before being shipped to Washington, where his career effectively ended. After missing all of 2006, Lawrence got into a handful of games with the Mets the following year but has been toiling in the minors ever since. As of this writing, he is 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA at New Orleans, the Florida Marlins Triple-A affiliate. Lawrence is 34 now; his chances to return to the big leagues lie somewhere between slim and none, but it’s hard not to admire the persistence.

The Padres picked Lawrence in the 1998 draft. That was a special year for the team and its fans, of course, but it was also a surprisingly strong 17th round. B.J. Ryan (Reds), J.J. Putz (Twins, did not sign), Eric Hinske (Cubs), Lawrence, Mike MacDougal (Orioles, did not sign), and Ty Wigginton (Mets) all went on to have productive big-league careers.

Sometimes those late picks turn out well. Other times, you end up with guys like Theodore Tomasovich, Lee Purchatzke, and Sean Drinkwater… great names, but that’s about it.

You won’t read about them in my Hardball Times article. Still, I like to think it’s worth a few minutes of your boss’ time.

One Full Season and the Latos Conundrum

by Geoff Young on Jul 20, 2010 (10) Comments

Reader Michael sends us this note:

Since so much of the media is saying that the Pads are a half-season fluke, but I knew they did quite well after the ASB last year, I figured I’d compile a chart of how teams have done if you add their post-ASB 2009 records with their pre-ASB records in 2010.

Michael’s findings may surprise you. Here are the 10 best teams over that time period: Continue reading ›

We Want the Airwaves

by Geoff Young on Jul 19, 2010 (2) Comments

I am scheduled to appear on two different radio shows on Tuesday:

The Morning Show with Elliott Price, Denis Casavant, and Shaun Starr
The Team 990, Montreal
5:45 a.m. PT (8:45 a.m. ET)

The New York Sports Exchange with Eric Mirlis and Derek Wasiak
WGBB 1240 AM, Long Island, New York
6:15 p.m. PT (9:15 p.m. ET)

Things could get crazy. Listen if you dare.

Thoughts on Frieri

by Geoff Young on Jul 19, 2010 (2) Comments

When Mike Adams landed on the disabled list just before the All-Star break, the Padres summoned right-hander Ernesto Frieri from Triple-A Portland. Signed as a free agent in January 2003, Frieri is the longest-tenured player in the entire Padres organization, beating fellow right-hander Tim Stauffer by about six months (thanks to my pal Keith for that nugget).

Frieri, you may recall, got into a couple of games for the big club last September. He made his 2010 debut on Friday night, working the ninth inning of San Diego’s 12-1 victory over the Diamondbacks. Frieri pitched well, pumping mid-90s heat and fanning two of the three batters he faced, including the whifftastic Mark Reynolds to end the contest.

I’d seen Frieri pitch a few weeks ago in Portland and been impressed, although the velocity wasn’t quite as good then as it was on Friday night. From my notes on the Portland game:

[Frieri] has taken to the closer’s role nicely, racking up some serious strikeout totals. I thought maybe he was one of those guys who added a few mph by just letting it fly for an inning, but no, he still works 90-92 with the fastball.

Those radar readings came via the PGE Park scoreboard. I can’t swear to its accuracy — one never can be sure with machines and their operators (if memory serves, it had Steve Garrison at 84-86 and Adam Russell at 93-95, which seems about right) — but Frieri’s fastball appeared to have more life on Friday in San Diego. Maybe he had a little extra adrenaline from pitching for a first-place team in front of 33,000+ people than he did pitching for a lousy team that plays in a mausoleum… Anyway, back to my notes:

The difference (that I noticed) is he’s more aggressive now [than when I saw Frieri pitch as a starter at Elsinore in 2008]. Dude attacks hitters, which is fun to see.

I was doing the Twitter thing during Friday’s contest, and Friarhood offered a similar sentiment:

You have to love how aggressive Frieri is!! Here’s my fastball, hit it if you dare!

Yep, that’s pretty much it. H.A. Dorfman, who has worked as an instructor, counselor, and consultant for multiple big-league teams, wrote a book some years ago called The Mental ABC’s of Pitching. In it, he has this to say about aggressiveness:

In order to be assertive, a pitcher must put himself in an attack mode. He must attack the strike zone — and establish the count in his favor. Success for a pitcher, in his confrontation with the hitter, comes from adopting that philosophy and putting it into action.

Frieri was in “attack mode” when I saw him at Portland (judging from his numbers, I’d guess he spent the entire season in attack mode), as he was again on Friday. Returning to my notes from last month:

Frieri probably isn’t big-league closer material, but he could be in the mix for a middle relief spot next year for the Padres or some other team. There are worse pitchers in the big leagues right now, e.g., the Arizona bullpen.

Cheap shot. I get a little catty in my notes.

In fairness, though, that bullpen has been brutal (its 6.75 ERA is worst in MLB, well “ahead” of Milwaukee’s 5.14). When Diamondbacks relievers allowed four runs on one hit in the eighth on Friday, it wasn’t even fun to watch; I actually felt bad for them because they couldn’t throw quality strikes (or any strikes, for that matter).

Seriously, how do you walk two guys and plunk another with the bases loaded when you’re already down seven runs? They had stopped competing. As a sports fan, I hate to see that, even when it works to my team’s advantage. It makes everyone look bad.

* * *

Apparently I have run out of stuff to say about Frieri. I’ll close by repeating something else I saw on Twitter, this one from Woe, Doctor!: “Welcome to the Padres, Frieri. May you never return to AAA.”

Preconceive This

by Geoff Young on Jul 18, 2010 (2) Comments

I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but the Padres are hitting better (and scoring more) at Petco Park this year than they are on the road:

      G   PA   BA  OBP  SLG  BB%  SO%  R/G
Home 48 1848 .257 .340 .378 10.5 18.8 4.65
Road 42 1619 .246 .302 .379  6.8 19.6 4.12

That could get a hitting coach… what’s the opposite of fired? Because of this, the Padres have an extraordinary run differential at home (and a decent one on the road):

      G  RS  RA Dif Dif/G
Home 48 223 152 +71 +1.48
Road 42 173 158 +15 +0.36

My favorite is still Jerry Hairston Jr., who just doesn’t get it:

      PA   BA  OBP  SLG BB%  SO%
Home 175 .269 .324 .429 7.4 12.0
Road 148 .226 .272 .285 4.7 14.2

Including Saturday night’s blast, six of Hairston’s seven home runs this year have come at his own personal bandbox known as Petco Park. Way to go, Jerry; thanks for making those of us who think it’s a tough place to hit look like idiots.