Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

La Jolla Stories

Seems everybody’s got one. Here are a couple more that came in over the weekend:

I was at Whole Foods, and a lady accidentally bumped a guy with her cart. She said “Oh, I’m sorry.”

He gave her a nasty look and said, “You just hit me with your cart.”

“I know, I said I’m sorry.”

Oh, if that were me, I’m afraid that guy would have gotten clobbered with the cart, to show him what an intentional hit is rather than an accident.

  –Jeff

I appreciate the sentiment, but it lacks finesse. Call over the store manager, explain that you bumped into this guy and that you think he might be hurt. Be animated, act genuinely concerned for his well-being, and insist that the store get him the medical attention he needs. Then walk away and let the idiot try to work his way out of it. Humiliation is much worse than physical pain for someone like that.

And from another Jeff, over at Syntax of Things:

In La Jolla, the panhandlers don’t accept coins. I suspect some will be more than willing to swipe your credit card.

Nail on the head. A relative of mine once was visiting from out of state and made the mistake of giving a panhandler a handful of change on his way out of the Vons on Girard. Guy gave him a look of contempt and threw the money all over the parking lot.

Personally, I’ve never been approached by a La Jolla panhandler, though I’ve been tempted to ask if I could have some of their money.

Xavier Nady

It’s early yet, but have you noticed Nady’s walk rate so far this year?

Lvl  AB BB BB/PA
A+  693 90 .115
AAA 315 20 .060
NL  138 12 .080

Not as good as he showed in A-ball, which isn’t surprising. Better than he showed in the PCL, which also isn’t surprising if you’d seen him play before this year. He’s learning, making the adjustments. And doing it more quickly than I’d expected. Hard not to be pleased with Nady’s progress thus far. I still expect him to tail off a bit in the middle months, then finish strong.

Mark Phillips

For those interested, Baseball America originally had him reporting Double-A after spending time in extended spring training, but in fact he’s pitching in the FSL. Here’s how he’s done through May 11:

  IP  H ER HR BB SO  ERA
23.0 20 11  0 15 14 4.30

It’s 23 innings, so who knows. I sure hope Rondell White fetches a decent prospect or two.

Pitch Counts

I don’t like to harp on pitch counts, but Bruce Bochy’s handling of the young arms lately has got me a little concerned.

          >91 91-100 101-110 111-120 121+   Avg
Bynum            1                         93.0
Condrey     3    2                    1    92.3
Deago                   1                 106.0
Eaton            3      2       2         102.0
Lawrence    3    2      2       1          96.5
Peavy       1    1      4       1     1   105.0
Perez       3    2      1                  94.7
Tankersley  1                              33.0
Total      11   10     10       4     2    96.1

Maybe it’s just because he’s run guys out there for 121+ pitches each of the past two games, and maybe it’s because Peavy is so young and so good, but I sure wish Bochy would be a little more careful with these guys. There’s no reason to be riding, in particular, Peavy and Eaton this hard.

The Marlins

One run against the Fish? Shut down by Tom Phelps, Alan Levrault, Blaine Neal, Tim Spooneybarger, and Armando Almanza? It was uglier than it sounds, and it sounds ugly. I watched parts of the game from several different vantage points, but it was the same garbage every time.

All you need to know about this game:

• Despite $5 admission, $1 parking, and $1 hot dogs, the attendance was only 15,869.
• Members of REO Speedwagon were there.

That’s it. Nady hit the ball on the screws to deep center field with two on to end the first. Sean Burroughs hammered a ball to deep left in the sixth to score the Pads’ only run. Lou Merloni played well, spelling Ramon Vazquez at shortstop. Merloni continues to impress the heck out of me; he probably could start at third base for a few teams.

That’s enough for now. Keep on burnin’…

Just when I’m ready to get worked up over Kerry Wood throwing 141 pitches Saturday, I see that Jake Peavy was allowed to throw 128 Sunday. I really don’t consider myself that extreme when it comes to pitch counts, but someone has to hold Bruce Bochy accountable for his actions. There’s no reason to leave your best young pitcher out there that long. None whatsoever.

Scouts and Scouting

One of the great things about sitting behind the plate at a minor-league game is getting to talk and listen to scouts. Mostly I listen because they’ve forgotten more than I’ll ever know about baseball, and it’s a good opportunity to learn more about the game. I honestly hope that any stathead who has ever attempted to dismiss the efforts of scouts and scouting one day has the opportunity to hear one of these guys talk about arm slots, a pitcher’s speed to the plate, the mechanics of a swing, or any number of other such subjects that no amount of mathematical formulation can ever hope to quantify or categorize. Fascinating stuff, and to discount what scouts do or to demean their study and evaluation of a player’s tools is disrespectful to them and to the game itself. To think that one man’s effort on the field (or anywhere) can be reduced to a series of increasingly complex equations is folly.

Not that there isn’t a great deal to be learned from statistical evaluation (there is, of course, and most scouts know this). But baseball (the kind that’s played on the field, not the fantasy variety) is more than numbers. And I’m convinced that if most rational folks spent even a little time listening to scouts talk about their craft, they would come away with a terrific appreciation for what they bring to the game. Obviously, as in all walks of life, some do their job better than others. But by and large these guys know a lot about baseball. Statheads need to get over it.

Plus it’s fascinating to hear about negotiations with draftees (and their families!), how a certain can’t miss prospect missed, why another overlooked guy made it big, and the like. Personally, I think the scouts are worth the price of admission alone.

Storm Watch

Storm took two from Inland Empire (Mariners) Sunday night. I’m generally pleased with the direction the Pads are headed, but it’s painful to see your team get knocked around all the time, so I enjoy heading up to the Diamond and watching a team that actually wins a few games. Helps reduce the sting, so to speak.

Josh Barfield looked real good at the plate. One of the scouts behind me commented that he was way too comfortable and aggressive with his hacks, and that someone needed to reclaim the inner half of the plate against him. Barfield didn’t have a stellar night performance-wise, but I’m impressed with his approach. He still needs to lay off the bad breaking balls, but I’m starting to think that some of us may have underestimated his power potential.

Got my first look at USD alum Greg Sain as a pro. Pretty much as I remembered at the plate. Very strong, hits the ball with authority. He made a few nice plays at the hot corner, but he doesn’t look real comfortable over there. Think Ed Sprague. Still wondering why the Padres don’t stick him back behind the plate, where he played in college.

The big prospect on the 66ers was outfielder Shin Soo Choo. He didn’t do much Saturday but he plays with a lot of confidence. Small guy. The way he sets up in the box reminds me a little of David Justice. Hard to judge a guy on one game, but Choo looked like what you’d expect a prospect to look like. Kinda like Barfield, just a little more sure of himself than most of the other guys.

Roger Deago

I know fantasy leaguers will be wanting to know a little about Deago, so here goes:

• His name is pronounced "day-AH-go".
• He’s listed at 5-8, but according to Mark Grant and Matt Vasgersian, that may be generous.
• His fastball runs 83-86 MPH (at least it did Saturday, and that’s consistent with the reports).
• He showed the ability and willingness Saturday to throw any pitch on any count.
• He needs to locate his pitches to be successful.
• He’s a terrific athlete. Swimming was his first sport as a youngster. He looked like he fields his position well and can handle the stick a little.
• He’ll probably be back in Mobile for his next start, so if you missed his debut, you’re too late.

Finally, Michael Rivera continues to shine behind the plate and stink at it. And stop giving the ball to Jaret Wright in crucial situations. Look what putting Brandon Villafuerte in a less demanding role has done for him. Maybe doing the same to Wright will have a similar effect on him.

Tonight the Pads begin a three-game series with the Marlins. New skipper Jack McKeon makes yet another return to San Diego. More importantly, this is a team that the Friars actually have a chance to beat. Keep your fingers crossed.

One of my Legion of Jeffs™ gave me the heads-up on this great site: VincentsBallparkPhotos.com. This really is an awesome collection of Petco Park photos and is well worth the trip.

And now, as promised, we return to David Marshall’s consideration of Tony Gwynn as a Hall of Fame candidate as measured by Bill James’ Keltner List. This is the third and final installment in David’s series. If you haven’t already done so, before proceeding you may wish to review the first two parts:

• Part 1
• Part 2

  by David Marshall (aka fracas)
  fraxinel@aol.com

11. How many MVP-type seasons did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Bill James defines a season of 30 to 40 Win Shares as an MVP-type season; Gwynn’s top seasons were 39, 35 and 30 Win Shares. Gwynn never won an MVP award. His highest finish in the voting was third place behind Ryne Sandberg and Keith Hernandez in 1984. He never again finished in the top 5, although he tied for the Win Shares lead in 1997 with Mike Piazza. Overall, Gwynn had 1.93 MVP "award shares."

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did the player have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?

Bill James defines 20 to 30 Win Shares as an All-Star-type season. Tony Gwynn earned at least 20 Win Shares 10 times (including a pro-rated 24 for the 1994 season). Gwynn was selected for fifteen All-Star games, and played in thirteen contests. He was selected in every full season of his career except 1988, when he had a thoroughly awful first half before finding his stroke and raising his average from .246 on July 1 to finish at .313, the lowest average to win a batting title in National League history. Players who appeared in 13-15 All-Star games are all Hall of Famers, if eligible.

13. If this man were the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

This is exactly what happened in 1984, of course, but the loose definitions of "likely" and "could" cloud the issue. The Padres did better when Gwynn wasn’t their best player, but what team doesn’t do better with a player having a better year than their HOF candidate?

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

As many have acknowledged, this is a tough question in modern baseball. Gwynn wasn’t responsible for, but was the first player to take advantage of, the "0-fer" rule, which states that a player falling short of the required plate appearances for a batting (or similar) title is allowed to add the necessary number of hitless at bats and recompute their average. Gwynn had 498 PAs in 1996; adding 0-for-4 to his 159-for-451 yielded a .349 average, still the best in the league. In terms of equipment, Gwynn may have been the first to wear sunglasses continuously throughout day games, presumably so his eyes wouldn’t have to adjust every half inning, but I wouldn’t call this significant. If Gwynn caused any change in the game, it was his pioneering use of videotape to analyze his own swing, starting with his home VCR in 1983. A decade later he spent nearly $100,000 putting a state of the art taping facility in the Padres’ clubhouse. Gwynn studied videotape the way Wade Boggs ate chicken.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Yes. The closest thing to a black mark on Gwynn’s record was a clubhouse fight that arose out of Jack Clark’s accusation that Gwynn was more concerned with his own stats than the team’s fortunes. On the other side of the ledger, Gwynn won the Branch Rickey award (created in 1991 by the Rotary Club of Denver, Colorado to honor an active in major leaguer who has demonstrated high standards and social concern through contributions to the community) in 1995 and the Roberto Clemente Man of the Year Award (given to the major leaguer who balances outstanding skills on the baseball field with civic responsibility) in 1999.

Conclusion

In The Politics of Glory, Bill James makes this passing mention of Tony Gwynn: "The principle is that specialists are always overrated, while players who do many things well are always underrated. If the public understands that a player does one thing exceptionally well – Tony Gwynn hits lots of singles – they can build on that, and then he’ll get credit for everything else he does well, even if there isn’t a tremendous lot of it." James has a point that being exceptional at one thing can obscure mediocrity in other areas, but I think he’s picked the wrong player to illustrate it here (he also uses a more appropriate choice, Cecil Fielder). I think Gwynn illustrates the related point that exceptional performance in one area can also obscure being above average in nearly everything else. I think this is the case with Gwynn.

Gwynn did more than hit a lot of singles; he’s 18th on the all-time doubles list, despite playing in a park not conducive to doubles. His 135 lifetime homeruns don’t seem to impress anybody (go figure), but Gwynn maintained a slugging percentage 60 points better than his peers over the course of 10,000 PAs. Nothing to sneeze at there. He didn’t walk as much as stat-heads would like, but still managed an OBP 58 points better than the league. He had above average speed (319 stolen bases at a 72% rate, second in the league in triples three times), and was an above average defender (five Gold Gloves, 120 fielding runs above average per baseballprospectus.com, fielding percentage and range factors both better than his league averages).

So Gwynn qualifies for the Hall of Fame not just with his 3154 hits and .338 lifetime batting average, but with longevity, above average power, on-base skills, speed, and defense.

Well, folks, there you have it. I believe that David has summed up Gwynn’s case pretty well. As David stated at the beginning of this series, Gwynn’s "enshrinement is considered a foregone conclusion." But in looking at his credentials with a critical eye, we are able to see exactly why his achievements will land him a spot in Cooperstown.

Finally, I’d like to take a moment to thank David for sharing his insights with us. Nicely done, my man.

If you have anything you’d like to discuss with David about his article, please drop him a line at the e-mail address above; if you’d like to let me know what you think of having someone else come in and talk for a bit, digame amigo. I’m always looking for ways to improve Ducksnorts; the best way I know to do that is by finding out what you want to read.

Don’t be a stranger. Just be strange…

Game 26: 4/29/03

Pittsburgh 7, San Diego 2 (ESPN)

Four wild pitches from Adam Eaton in 3 1/3 innings? Forty-four pitches in the first inning alone? His first big-league homer? Jesse Orosco gives up a homer to a lefty (Rob Mackowiak) hitting .184/.244/.237? Strange, strange night.

Positives: Mark Kotsay appears to be healthy. Sean Burroughs knocks two hits to raise his average above .200. Yippee.

This is depressing. Let’s talk about something else. Like the fact that the winner in each of the Pads’ past four games has scored exactly 7 runs. Trivial, yes, but not depressing. Well, unless you consider that the Padres only won one of those.

Now would be a good time to get back to David Marshall’s discussion of Tony Gwynn and the Hall of Fame. Before we do, I’d like to correct something I said yesterday. I mentioned that Gwynn wouldn’t be eligible for the HOF until 2006; it’s actually 2007. My bad.

On that note, I yield the floor to David.

  by David Marshall (aka fracas)
  fraxinel@aol.com

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He’s not even the best player on the 2007 ballot. Cal Ripken is the best candidate for the Hall since at least Eddie Murray, and depending on your views on DHing, perhaps Mike Schmidt. (As to whether Gwynn’s a better candidate than Mark McGwire: Gwynn has more total bases than the prolific slugger – by a margin of 620 bags. Add in their walks and Gwynn still leads, although by a narrower margin. Tony also beats McGwire in career Win Shares, the Black Ink and Gray Ink tests, and the HOF Standards and HOF Monitor. But I predict McGwire will receive more votes – chicks dig the long ball.)

Setting aside players also making their debut on this year’s ballot, is Gwynn the best? Here are all the non-HOFers with more career Win Shares than Gwynn’s 398:

7. Are most of the players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Yes. Gwynn’s comp list consists of:

* In HOF.
** Eligible in 2005, likely first ballot.

Eight [nine?] out of ten comps are in the Hall, and none are truly similar to Gwynn. Indeed, six of the ten only rate as "somewhat" similar. Similarity scores aren’t adjusted for the level of league offense, but using OPS+ (which is) and career length, it’s clear that Gwynn (132 OPS+ and 10232 PAs) was better than Rice (112, 10246), Manush (121, 8416), Sisler (124, 9013 at first base), and Pinson (111, 10403, albeit in center field) and clearly worse than Crawford (144, 10594) unless your choice of era adjustment is pretty steep. He’s probably worse than Boggs as well (an OBP-heavy 130, 10740, at third base). It’s an interesting footnote that the careers of Gwynn’s comps cover almost the entire twentieth century; the only years missing are between Waner’s retirement in 1945 and Clemente’s debut in 1955.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Yes. Per www.baseballreference.com, Tony Gwynn meets 53.9 percent of the Hall of Fame standards (working through James’ system by hand I get 55 percent). Meaning Gwynn’s enshrinement will actually raise the average level of the HOF.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Taken as a whole, and with a liberal definition of "statistic" (for instance, counting 5 Gold Gloves as a "statistic"), I would say no. Tony Gwynn’s career straddles the marked increase in offense that began in 1993, so that his early statistics don’t look quite as impressive as they are, while his late-career statistics probably get overrated a bit. I suppose one could argue that his skill set changed to fit the offensive environment: his speed was concentrated in the lower-scoring portion of his career, and then he shifted toward slightly more power in his later years. But most players evolve along this trajectory, so I wouldn’t give him any extra credit here. Nagging injuries were reducing Gwynn’s games played during the 1990′s, and the 94-95 strike gives the appearance of that trend continuing until 1997. In fact, Gwynn missed only 16 games in the two strike-affected seasons combined.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

Yes. Dwight Evans has a case, but I think Gwynn is better overall (132 OPS+ versus 127, 398 Win Shares versus 347). Gwynn also beats out Dave Parker and Andre Dawson, mostly due to a large advantage in on base percentage, although Dawson gains points for playing over 1000 games in center field.

(Next up: How many MVP and All-Star type seasons did he have? What impact did he have on baseball history? Conclusion.)

Let’s try something a little different today, shall we? I’m going to sit back and relax with y’all and let others do most of the talking.

Before we get going, I’d like to point you to a terrific interview of NY Times sports writer Buster Olney that Alex Belth conducted.

The part that got me was a discussion of Hideki Irabu:

I thought him to be one of the saddest players I ever covered. He so had so little self-confidence. I don’t know him, and I can’t document it, but I just thought he was like the kid who got picked on in high school, and was just very defensive. There was something about his background; you could just see he had no self-confidence.

Irabu, in case you weren’t aware, holds a special place in my heart. Ducksnorts was born some 5 1/2 years ago with an article on Irabu and his decision (good for the Padres, as it turned out) to spurn San Diego in favor of the Yankees. He was also born on the exact same day as I was. Irabu is one of the few professional athletes I’ve ever taken the trouble to boo. But I have to admit, the more I learn about him, the more I just plain feel sorry for the guy. I can’t even hate him anymore.

Anyway, if you haven’t been over to Alex’s Bronx Banter (and why not?), be sure to do so. You’re in for a treat.

From the Mailbag

I’d like to make this a quasi-regular feature, so keep those letters coming. Today’s message comes from long-time reader Dan Walls, who responds to my suggestion yesterday that Carlton Loewer might be a good candidate to join the Pads’ rotation before long:

Great stuff as always. I agree that maybe Clay Condrey might need a refresher course at Portland to get things going again. As to who should replace him in the rotation, I have been intrigued by the Randy Keisler option. Fairly hot prospect derailed by injuries, etc. His peripherals seem a little better than Loewer (even not including Loewer’s poor start yesterday). Keisler is striking out more batters per nine innings and is not giving up as many hits. His walk rate is pretty low, but unfortunately he is giving up the long ball too often. He starts tonight [Monday] for the Beavers. Anyway, just a thought on another option.

Ah yes, flattery will get you everywhere. Seriously, good call on Keisler (who ended up throwing 7 scoreless at Omaha in the game Dan referenced). Like Loewer, he’s a former prospect with some experience and a good arm when healthy. Here’s what I wrote about Keisler when the Padres signed him back in February:

Keisler missed all of 2002 due to injury and is now 27 years old, so who knows how much of that potential remains. Still, not a bad low-risk move. At worst, he’ll help solidify the staff at Portland and be available if a short-term fix is needed in San Diego. At best, he could turn into a useful commodity.

I’m always amazed when I say something that still sounds reasonably intelligent two months later. Anyway, I think one of these guys deserves a shot, as does outfielder Jason Bay, who is scorching the PCL to the tune of .385/.505/.795.

And now, we move to the meat of today’s installment. Another regular reader, David Marshall (aka fracas), has done a Keltner List (a set of 15 questions posed by Bill James in an effort to determine whether a player is deserving of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame) on Tony Gwynn. Although Tony won’t be eligible for the HOF until 2006 and is a virtual lock for induction, it’s never too early to start thinking about these things. Plus it’s fun and David did a heckuva job. So without further ado, let’s turn this baby over to David.

  by David Marshall (aka fracas)
  fraxinel@aol.com

In this article, we will put Tony Gwynn through "the Keltnerizer." Most of us probably aren’t very concerned about Gwynn’s Hall of Fame candidacy, since his enshrinement is considered a foregone conclusion, but let’s see what we can learn from the process, shall we?

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No one made a serious case (nor will I), but in the interest of presenting all the evidence, he received one first place vote in MVP balloting, in 1984. George Will, in his 1990 book Men at Work, said this: "According to Roger Craig, Tony Gwynn is ‘the best pure hitter in this league.’ Actually, Gwynn may be the best pure hitter in baseball today, and with his baserunning, he may be the best offensive player." Gwynn also began winning Gold Gloves in the late 80s, but still, Will overstates the case. Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson and Don Mattingly collected more Win Shares in the 1984-89 period. Win Shares does rate Gwynn as tied for NL MVP with Mike Piazza in 1997 (Frank Thomas also had 39 Win Shares in the AL), but I’d give it to Piazza as a catcher (his defense is included in WS, but not the fact that catchers get less playing time).

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Frequently, and far more than anyone else. The San Diego chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America selected Gwynn as the Padres’ MVP in 1984, 86, 87, 88, 94, 95, and 97. He led the team in Win Shares in 1984, 86, 87, 88, 93, 94, and 97, and was second in 1985, 89, 91 and 95. When Gwynn didn’t lead the team in Win Shares, the lead went to such players as Garry Templeton (1985), Jack Clark (1989), Bip Roberts (1990), Fred McGriff (1991), Gary Sheffield (1992), and Ken Caminiti (1995 and 96). All told, Gwynn was the best player on the Padres 7 of his 16 full seasons, and second 4 of the others.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

James says of this question, "I wasn’t referring to what his stats were in any season, but what his skills were over a period of time." (It’s not clear whether he applies the same standard to questions 1 and 2.)

Tony Gwynn led all major league right fielders in Win Shares in 1984, 1986 and 1997, and he trailed only Darryl Strawberry by 1 share in 1987. In 1989, Gwynn played 86 games in centerfield and 73 in right, and led all National Leaguers at either position, but would trail either Robin Yount or Ruben Sierra among major leaguers. Sportswriters polled by The Sporting News voted Gwynn onto their starting NL All-Star team for 1984, 86, 87, 89, and 94. I think it’s fair to say that Gwynn was the best right fielder in baseball from 1984 to 1989 (and again in 1997), although a Darryl Strawberry fan would point out that Strawberry lead NL right fielders in Win Shares in 1987, 88, and 90. In fact, either player could be considered the best NL right fielder for a period of years centered in the late 1980s; it becomes a matter of selecting endpoints.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Not very many. Gwynn had a terrific season for the 1984 Padres, but they won the NL West by 12 games, and it was never close in the second half. He did hit .368/.400/.526 with 6 runs scored and 3 RBIs in the 5-game NLCS against the Cubs.

In 1989, the Padres made a surprise late-season run at the Giants. With a 62-64 record on August 8, the Padres caught fire, winning 12 of 13 and 25 of 32 before the Giants clinched. Gwynn’s 30 Win Share season certainly contributed to the Padres 89 wins, and Gwynn’s consolation prize was beating Will Clark for the batting title on the last day of the season.

1996 was an injury-plagued season for Gwynn. Limited by a frayed Achilles tendon that DL’d him for a month and reduced his bat speed, Gwynn managed only 498 plate appearances and 32 extra base hits. Even so, Gwynn batted .353/.400/.441 in his 116 games for an OPS+ of 127. The NL West title came down to extra innings on the last day of the season (and a playoff spot came down to the last series), so clearly Gwynn’s contribution was critical.

In 1998, Gwynn contributed a 135 OPS+ over 505 PAs, although he was by then being replaced regularly in the late innings by pinch runner and defensive replacement Ruben Rivera. The Padres won the West by 9.5 games, and Gwynn was unimpressive in two rounds of playoffs (.220/.238/.293), before breaking out in the World Series (.500/.529/.687) with a homer off the second deck facing of Yankee Stadium.

Gwynn’s pennant race opportunities were limited by the Padres’ fortunes during his career, while his impact when they did win was, ironically, somewhat muted by the wide margins of the Padres’ two pennant winning teams.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Bill James must define playing past one’s prime more loosely than I do. Discussing Tony Oliva and Orlando Cepeda, James answers the question this way: "Both players unquestionably were. Both players had bad knees, which forced them out of the game in their mid-thirties." Either he’s assuming they would have kept their starting status if uninjured, and giving credit for that, or his definition of a player’s prime is substantially younger and/or shorter than mine.

Regardless, Tony Gwynn had a terrific season (39 WS, 156 OPS+) at age 37, and had another 1203 PAs of roughly 126 OPS+ at age 38 and above, so the answer in his case is an unqualified yes.

(Next up: Is he the best player in history not in the HOF? Are most of his comparable players in the HOF?)

Monday, April 28, 2003

Game 23: 4/25/03

San Diego 7, Cincinnati 3 (ESPN)

Game 24: 4/26/03

Cincinnati 7, San Diego 6 (ESPN)

Game 25: 4/27/03

Cincinnati 7, San Diego 5 (ESPN)

Quick look at the series against the Reds. I won’t comment on each of the games, but rather will give general impressions of what I saw.

• The pitching staff simply has to stop walking so many guys. Issuing 24 free passes in three games is not acceptable. The Padres as a team are now averaging 4.89 walks per 9 innings. Even Brian Lawrence, who normally has impeccable control, is walking 3.62 per 9 innings. Bizzarely, he’s also nailed five batters over his past two starts.
• Ramon Vazquez continues his solid approach at the plate. He now has 21 walks in 24 games and a .418 OBP. It’s a tiny sample, but he also appears to be making strides against southpaws (.269/.387/.346 in 26 at-bats, with 5 walks against 3 strikeouts). He even knocked his first homer on Sunday.
• Ryan Klesko looks like he’s fully healthy. He’s reached base in 20 consecutive games, and he’s now hitting .277/.365/.530 for the season.
• Rondell White is an incredibly streaky hitter.
• The Pads need Mark Kotsay to get healthy. Shane Victorino is a fine defensive outfielder, but he’s overmatched at the plate, especially from the left side. He appears to have some knowledge of the strike zone, but that swing gets a bit long for someone who should just be trying to put the ball in play.
• Sean Burroughs is scuffling. It’s easy to panic, but patience is warranted with this one. He’s young and learning. The more reps he gets at this level, the better off he and the Padres will be in the long run.
• Michael Rivera came from Detroit with the reputation of a good-hit, no-field catcher. Thus far, he’s been pretty much the opposite. Rivera has looked pretty comfortable behind the dish and drawn praise for his work with the pitching staff. At the plate he’s hacking at everything and not driving the ball. Good to see Bruce Bochy giving him a shot. Maybe over time, he’ll hit more.
• Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton are looking awfully good. Peavy struck out 8 of the first 10 batters he faced on Friday. He’s giving up a few more homers than you’d like to see, but at times, his stuff is just overpowering. It was good to see Bochy pull him after just 82 pitches against the Reds. The flip side of that is that even after that outing, he’s averaging 101.8 pitches per start. Here’s hoping that Bochy will continue to be more prudent with his young pitchers and that they will help him by being more efficient.
• Clay Condrey is a great story, but it might be time to try someone else in that fifth spot. Carlton Loewer is off to a great start at Portland and could get the call sooner rather than later.
• The bullpen is running on fumes. This is one bad thing about having so many young kids in the rotation. The Padres need more innings out of their starters, but they also need to be careful with them. When the youngsters aren’t being efficient, the bullpen has to work that much harder. Nobody’s fault, really; just the nature of the beast. An argument in favor of guys like Kevin Jarvis, Francisco Cordova, and Charles Nagy.

From the Mailbag

Occassionally I receive letters from y’all, and I do appreciate it when that happens. Sometimes I get something that I think would interest other readers, and when I do, I like to share it with everyone. So with that in mind, let’s get to the mail.

Today’s message comes from M.:

Hey, I thought it was really cool that you had a site with so many interesting points of view on every sport but mainly baseball. I just don’t get where you think that you can put down people that are already in the pros (High A). Obviously the D-Backs saw something they liked with Joandry Berroa ([now known as] Danny Richar) he is having a great season hopefully youll get to see him play this year. The fact that he is only 19 is all the better by the time he gets to the big leagues he wil blow people away.

First off, thanks for the message! For the benefit of everyone, M. is referring to something I wrote back on July 28 of last year:

The two other intriguing players are shortstop Joandry Berroa and center fielder Dwight Edge. I’m not sure why Berroa is playing in the Cal League. He’s listed as being 17 years old and he’s hitting just .222/.271/.262. Looks completely overmatched at the plate. The reason I call him intriguing is not so much for anything he’s done but because he raises the question of what are the Diamondbacks thinking in putting this kid in High-A ball? He has no business being there.

I don’t want to dwell too much on words written nine months ago, but I’d like to explain the thought process behind my comments. My intent was to criticize the Diamondbacks for sticking a very raw 17-year-old in the California League. Richar may be quite talented, but he looked way over his head when I saw him. Again, that’s not a knock on the guy. Most 17-year-olds would be way over their head in that league. I just don’t see why the Diamondbacks wouldn’t let him develop at a more reasonable pace.

For the record, Richar is currently hitting .313/.333/.438 at Lancaster, in his second trip through the Cal League. He didn’t make Baseball America‘s Top 30 prospects for Arizona this year, but he’s young and as I stated last July, because of his youth he is intriguing. But in the words of Asia, only time will tell.

Housekeeping

I added a bunch of new links over there on the right. You know about The Cub Reporter, Eddie Kranepool Society, and Syntax of Things. I’ve also added Elephants in Oakland and View from the 700 Level, which cover the A’s and Phillies, respectively. Be sure to check ‘em out when you have a moment.

Game 22: 4/24/03

San Diego 2, Chicago Cubs 1 (ESPN)

So the Pads, in case you missed it, came back and took the series from the Cubs. Oliver Perez, who entered the game with an ERA of 9.00, pitched a gem. And he needed it. No, Jeff, I don’t think that just because his ERA is 6.66 now, it means he cut a deal with the devil. I think Perez heard the talk and knew he needed to do something, so he did. And what he did was throw strikes and actually pitch, instead of just flinging baseballs toward home plate. Let’s hope this is the start of something good for him and the club.

For more coverage on the game and the series, head on over to The Cub Reporter. Say hey to Christian while you’re there, and be nice to him!

And thanks to Christian for suggesting this little wager. With luck, we’ll be able to swing something along the same lines when the Cubs come to town in August.

Stupid Things to Do

Hip Surgery Music Guide. The site appears to be dead now, but there’s a pretty decent archive of information about, um, interesting music. Ken Nordine, Wesley Willis. Yes, even William “Method Singing” Shatner is there. It’s stupid, it’s fun. It’s something to do before today’s game against the Reds.

Tonight: Jake Peavy vs Jeff Austin at The Great American Ballpark. Game time, 4:10 PM. Television: Channel 4.

So the series with the Cubs is even after yesterday’s shutout victory behind Adam Eaton and Matt Herges. I figured if the Pads’ bats showed up at all, the first two games should be pretty close. I sure wish Jake Peavy were pitching today. But maybe this is the game Oliver Perez turns things around. One can only hope.

We’ll talk about that in a minute, but first…

Shameless Plug

My latest article is up over at Baseball Primer. It’s a quick recap of the early part of the season in the NL West and the first in a series I’ll be working on throughout the year. Hope ya like it!

Okay, back to the series.

Game 20: 4/22/03

Chicago Cubs 7, San Diego 2 (ESPN)

Not much to say on this one except how does Brian Lawrence, of all people, tie a big-league record by plunking three hitters in one inning? And how does Sammy Sosa steal his thunder by being one of the guys he hits?

Game 21: 4/23/03

San Diego 2, Chicago Cubs 0 (ESPN)

Or, as I like to call it, "Revenge of the Rented Mules."

A little wildness from Kerry Wood, some clutch hitting from Ramon Vazquez and Sean Burroughs, and some brilliant pitching; next thing you know, the Padres have tied up the series. Eaton allowed five hits and two walks over seven innings. He also set a personal best with 12 strikeouts. Herges followed by retiring the final six batters for his first save.

Meantime, after drawing a leadoff walk in the second, Xavier Nady scored on a two-out double by Vazquez. Then, in the fifth, with two outs Ryan Klesko got plunked on a 1-2 pitch from Wood. Rondell White then drew a walk and Burroughs followed with a single to right-center, plating Klesko.

The Cubs may have been upset at Lawrence the other day for hitting Sosa. But as a Padre fan, I’m nothing but grateful to Wood for giving Klesko a base yesterday. Right now, this team needs all the help it can get, even it comes from the opposition.

Today: Oliver Perez vs Matt Clement at Wrigley. Game time, 11:20 PM. Television: none.