Let’s try something a little different today, shall we? I’m going to sit back and relax with y’all and let others do most of the talking.
Before we get going, I’d like to point you to a terrific interview of NY Times sports writer Buster Olney that Alex Belth conducted.
The part that got me was a discussion of Hideki Irabu:
I thought him to be one of the saddest players I ever covered. He so had so little self-confidence. I don’t know him, and I can’t document it, but I just thought he was like the kid who got picked on in high school, and was just very defensive. There was something about his background; you could just see he had no self-confidence.
Irabu, in case you weren’t aware, holds a special place in my heart. Ducksnorts was born some 5 1/2 years ago with an article on Irabu and his decision (good for the Padres, as it turned out) to spurn San Diego in favor of the Yankees. He was also born on the exact same day as I was. Irabu is one of the few professional athletes I’ve ever taken the trouble to boo. But I have to admit, the more I learn about him, the more I just plain feel sorry for the guy. I can’t even hate him anymore.
Anyway, if you haven’t been over to Alex’s Bronx Banter (and why not?), be sure to do so. You’re in for a treat.
From the Mailbag
I’d like to make this a quasi-regular feature, so keep those letters coming. Today’s message comes from long-time reader Dan Walls, who responds to my suggestion yesterday that Carlton Loewer might be a good candidate to join the Pads’ rotation before long:
Great stuff as always. I agree that maybe Clay Condrey might need a refresher course at Portland to get things going again. As to who should replace him in the rotation, I have been intrigued by the Randy Keisler option. Fairly hot prospect derailed by injuries, etc. His peripherals seem a little better than Loewer (even not including Loewer’s poor start yesterday). Keisler is striking out more batters per nine innings and is not giving up as many hits. His walk rate is pretty low, but unfortunately he is giving up the long ball too often. He starts tonight [Monday] for the Beavers. Anyway, just a thought on another option.
Ah yes, flattery will get you everywhere. Seriously, good call on Keisler (who ended up throwing 7 scoreless at Omaha in the game Dan referenced). Like Loewer, he’s a former prospect with some experience and a good arm when healthy. Here’s what I wrote about Keisler when the Padres signed him back in February:
Keisler missed all of 2002 due to injury and is now 27 years old, so who knows how much of that potential remains. Still, not a bad low-risk move. At worst, he’ll help solidify the staff at Portland and be available if a short-term fix is needed in San Diego. At best, he could turn into a useful commodity.
I’m always amazed when I say something that still sounds reasonably intelligent two months later. Anyway, I think one of these guys deserves a shot, as does outfielder Jason Bay, who is scorching the PCL to the tune of .385/.505/.795.
And now, we move to the meat of today’s installment. Another regular reader, David Marshall (aka fracas), has done a Keltner List (a set of 15 questions posed by Bill James in an effort to determine whether a player is deserving of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame) on Tony Gwynn. Although Tony won’t be eligible for the HOF until 2006 and is a virtual lock for induction, it’s never too early to start thinking about these things. Plus it’s fun and David did a heckuva job. So without further ado, let’s turn this baby over to David.
Keltnerizing Tony Gwynn: Part 1 of 3
by David Marshall (aka fracas)
fraxinel@aol.com
In this article, we will put Tony Gwynn through "the Keltnerizer." Most of us probably aren’t very concerned about Gwynn’s Hall of Fame candidacy, since his enshrinement is considered a foregone conclusion, but let’s see what we can learn from the process, shall we?
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
No one made a serious case (nor will I), but in the interest of presenting all the evidence, he received one first place vote in MVP balloting, in 1984. George Will, in his 1990 book Men at Work, said this: "According to Roger Craig, Tony Gwynn is ‘the best pure hitter in this league.’ Actually, Gwynn may be the best pure hitter in baseball today, and with his baserunning, he may be the best offensive player." Gwynn also began winning Gold Gloves in the late 80s, but still, Will overstates the case. Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson and Don Mattingly collected more Win Shares in the 1984-89 period. Win Shares does rate Gwynn as tied for NL MVP with Mike Piazza in 1997 (Frank Thomas also had 39 Win Shares in the AL), but I’d give it to Piazza as a catcher (his defense is included in WS, but not the fact that catchers get less playing time).
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Frequently, and far more than anyone else. The San Diego chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America selected Gwynn as the Padres’ MVP in 1984, 86, 87, 88, 94, 95, and 97. He led the team in Win Shares in 1984, 86, 87, 88, 93, 94, and 97, and was second in 1985, 89, 91 and 95. When Gwynn didn’t lead the team in Win Shares, the lead went to such players as Garry Templeton (1985), Jack Clark (1989), Bip Roberts (1990), Fred McGriff (1991), Gary Sheffield (1992), and Ken Caminiti (1995 and 96). All told, Gwynn was the best player on the Padres 7 of his 16 full seasons, and second 4 of the others.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
James says of this question, "I wasn’t referring to what his stats were in any season, but what his skills were over a period of time." (It’s not clear whether he applies the same standard to questions 1 and 2.)
Tony Gwynn led all major league right fielders in Win Shares in 1984, 1986 and 1997, and he trailed only Darryl Strawberry by 1 share in 1987. In 1989, Gwynn played 86 games in centerfield and 73 in right, and led all National Leaguers at either position, but would trail either Robin Yount or Ruben Sierra among major leaguers. Sportswriters polled by The Sporting News voted Gwynn onto their starting NL All-Star team for 1984, 86, 87, 89, and 94. I think it’s fair to say that Gwynn was the best right fielder in baseball from 1984 to 1989 (and again in 1997), although a Darryl Strawberry fan would point out that Strawberry lead NL right fielders in Win Shares in 1987, 88, and 90. In fact, either player could be considered the best NL right fielder for a period of years centered in the late 1980s; it becomes a matter of selecting endpoints.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Not very many. Gwynn had a terrific season for the 1984 Padres, but they won the NL West by 12 games, and it was never close in the second half. He did hit .368/.400/.526 with 6 runs scored and 3 RBIs in the 5-game NLCS against the Cubs.
In 1989, the Padres made a surprise late-season run at the Giants. With a 62-64 record on August 8, the Padres caught fire, winning 12 of 13 and 25 of 32 before the Giants clinched. Gwynn’s 30 Win Share season certainly contributed to the Padres 89 wins, and Gwynn’s consolation prize was beating Will Clark for the batting title on the last day of the season.
1996 was an injury-plagued season for Gwynn. Limited by a frayed Achilles tendon that DL’d him for a month and reduced his bat speed, Gwynn managed only 498 plate appearances and 32 extra base hits. Even so, Gwynn batted .353/.400/.441 in his 116 games for an OPS+ of 127. The NL West title came down to extra innings on the last day of the season (and a playoff spot came down to the last series), so clearly Gwynn’s contribution was critical.
In 1998, Gwynn contributed a 135 OPS+ over 505 PAs, although he was by then being replaced regularly in the late innings by pinch runner and defensive replacement Ruben Rivera. The Padres won the West by 9.5 games, and Gwynn was unimpressive in two rounds of playoffs (.220/.238/.293), before breaking out in the World Series (.500/.529/.687) with a homer off the second deck facing of Yankee Stadium.
Gwynn’s pennant race opportunities were limited by the Padres’ fortunes during his career, while his impact when they did win was, ironically, somewhat muted by the wide margins of the Padres’ two pennant winning teams.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Bill James must define playing past one’s prime more loosely than I do. Discussing Tony Oliva and Orlando Cepeda, James answers the question this way: "Both players unquestionably were. Both players had bad knees, which forced them out of the game in their mid-thirties." Either he’s assuming they would have kept their starting status if uninjured, and giving credit for that, or his definition of a player’s prime is substantially younger and/or shorter than mine.
Regardless, Tony Gwynn had a terrific season (39 WS, 156 OPS+) at age 37, and had another 1203 PAs of roughly 126 OPS+ at age 38 and above, so the answer in his case is an unqualified yes.
(Next up: Is he the best player in history not in the HOF? Are most of his comparable players in the HOF?)
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