Game 26: 4/29/03

Pittsburgh 7, San Diego 2 (ESPN)

Four wild pitches from Adam Eaton in 3 1/3 innings? Forty-four pitches in the first inning alone? His first big-league homer? Jesse Orosco gives up a homer to a lefty (Rob Mackowiak) hitting .184/.244/.237? Strange, strange night.

Positives: Mark Kotsay appears to be healthy. Sean Burroughs knocks two hits to raise his average above .200. Yippee.

This is depressing. Let’s talk about something else. Like the fact that the winner in each of the Pads’ past four games has scored exactly 7 runs. Trivial, yes, but not depressing. Well, unless you consider that the Padres only won one of those.

Now would be a good time to get back to David Marshall’s discussion of Tony Gwynn and the Hall of Fame. Before we do, I’d like to correct something I said yesterday. I mentioned that Gwynn wouldn’t be eligible for the HOF until 2006; it’s actually 2007. My bad.

On that note, I yield the floor to David.

  by David Marshall (aka fracas)
  fraxinel@aol.com

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He’s not even the best player on the 2007 ballot. Cal Ripken is the best candidate for the Hall since at least Eddie Murray, and depending on your views on DHing, perhaps Mike Schmidt. (As to whether Gwynn’s a better candidate than Mark McGwire: Gwynn has more total bases than the prolific slugger – by a margin of 620 bags. Add in their walks and Gwynn still leads, although by a narrower margin. Tony also beats McGwire in career Win Shares, the Black Ink and Gray Ink tests, and the HOF Standards and HOF Monitor. But I predict McGwire will receive more votes – chicks dig the long ball.)

Setting aside players also making their debut on this year’s ballot, is Gwynn the best? Here are all the non-HOFers with more career Win Shares than Gwynn’s 398:

7. Are most of the players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Yes. Gwynn’s comp list consists of:

* In HOF.
** Eligible in 2005, likely first ballot.

Eight [nine?] out of ten comps are in the Hall, and none are truly similar to Gwynn. Indeed, six of the ten only rate as "somewhat" similar. Similarity scores aren’t adjusted for the level of league offense, but using OPS+ (which is) and career length, it’s clear that Gwynn (132 OPS+ and 10232 PAs) was better than Rice (112, 10246), Manush (121, 8416), Sisler (124, 9013 at first base), and Pinson (111, 10403, albeit in center field) and clearly worse than Crawford (144, 10594) unless your choice of era adjustment is pretty steep. He’s probably worse than Boggs as well (an OBP-heavy 130, 10740, at third base). It’s an interesting footnote that the careers of Gwynn’s comps cover almost the entire twentieth century; the only years missing are between Waner’s retirement in 1945 and Clemente’s debut in 1955.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Yes. Per www.baseballreference.com, Tony Gwynn meets 53.9 percent of the Hall of Fame standards (working through James’ system by hand I get 55 percent). Meaning Gwynn’s enshrinement will actually raise the average level of the HOF.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Taken as a whole, and with a liberal definition of "statistic" (for instance, counting 5 Gold Gloves as a "statistic"), I would say no. Tony Gwynn’s career straddles the marked increase in offense that began in 1993, so that his early statistics don’t look quite as impressive as they are, while his late-career statistics probably get overrated a bit. I suppose one could argue that his skill set changed to fit the offensive environment: his speed was concentrated in the lower-scoring portion of his career, and then he shifted toward slightly more power in his later years. But most players evolve along this trajectory, so I wouldn’t give him any extra credit here. Nagging injuries were reducing Gwynn’s games played during the 1990′s, and the 94-95 strike gives the appearance of that trend continuing until 1997. In fact, Gwynn missed only 16 games in the two strike-affected seasons combined.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

Yes. Dwight Evans has a case, but I think Gwynn is better overall (132 OPS+ versus 127, 398 Win Shares versus 347). Gwynn also beats out Dave Parker and Andre Dawson, mostly due to a large advantage in on base percentage, although Dawson gains points for playing over 1000 games in center field.

(Next up: How many MVP and All-Star type seasons did he have? What impact did he have on baseball history? Conclusion.)