Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Sorry for the delay, folks. Bit of a crisis at work this morning. Servers have a way of crashing at the most inopportune times.

I’ve got a lot on my plate at the moment, so this will be my last posting till probably the middle of next week. In the meantime, you’ve always got…

Blogs, Blogs, Blogs

Okay, just one blog but it’s a good one: Bronx Banter. Check it out when you have a moment, and tell Alex I sent ya.

Spambots

I’m just including this e-mail link so spambots pick it up: Admin@MostWantedDomains.biz. This guy basically goes around snagging domain names that people have forgotten to re-register and then tries to extort money out of them. Read about one experience at Baseball Primer. Scum.

Padres Top 20 Prospects: 1-10

I guess if I were really clever, I’d have led off with #10 and worked my way to #1. But since I’m not, and since it’s no great surprise who #1 is, here they are. Enjoy.

#1
Khalil Greene, SS
DOB: 10/21/79
Acq: draft 2002, rd 1; Clemson U.
Ht: 5’11″ Wt: 210

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
Eug    A-   37  .270  .297  .400   5   6   0   0
LkE    A+  183  .317  .368  .525  12  33   0   0

Greene immediately shoots to the top of this list. There really isn’t anything not to like about him. Yeah, his plate discipline was a bit shaky in his first exposure to pro ball and he’s not going to be a stellar defensive shortstop, but that’s nitpicking. Although he’s not particularly big, Greene is strong and generates good power to the gaps with his compact swing. He projects as a middle-of-the-order offensive threat in the vein of Rich Aurilia (the guy who hits .280 with 20+ homers a year, not the 2001 freak version). In the field, what Greene lacks in quickness and arm strength, he makes up for in instincts and quick release. He’ll never be mistaken for Ozzie Smith, or even Ozzie Guillen, but he should be an average defensive shortstop or perhaps slightly better. Greene probably has enough bat to withstand a move out of the middle infield, but with the Padres lacking any other legitimate options at shortstop within the system, he will be given every opportunity to prove that he can play the position at the highest level.

#2
Mark Phillips, LHP
DOB: 12/30/81
Acq: draft 2000, rd 1; Hanover (Pa.) HS
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 205

Club  Lvl     IP    H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
LkE    A+  148.1  123   9  94  156  4.19

Phillips continues to tantalize and frustrate with his combination of overpowering stuff and inconsistent command. Arms like his are seldom found on left-handers; he throws easy low- to mid-90s gas and has a solid breaking ball. But at times he simply cannot find the strike zone with any of his pitches. If he can learn to be more efficient with his pitches and avoid the lapses in control that have plagued him thus far, Phillips has the chance to be a front-end power lefty in the mold of Mark Langston or Al Leiter. But for now, he’s still a work in progress with very high upside.

#3
Xavier Nady, LF
DOB: 11/14/78
Acq: draft 2000, rd 2; U. of California
Ht: 6’1″ Wt: 185

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  169  .278  .382  .580  28  40   2   0
Por   AAA  315  .283  .329  .422  20  60   0   1

Thanks to injuries, Nady has lost some of his shine as a prospect. He spent the first half of 2002 repeating the Cal League so he could play every day in a league with a full-time DH while he recovered from off-season wrist surgery. Although his plate discipline deteriorated significantly on his jump to Triple-A, there are reasons for optimism. First, the pitching in the PCL is a lot better than that in the Cal League, and it’s not surprising to see even a very good prospect struggle on first exposure to better competition. Second, Nady finished the year strong; progress within a season is always a good sign. Third, in the process of skipping a level he also was moved to left field and did at least a passable job out there. On the downside, in addition to his mediocre overall numbers at Portland, Nady had to leave the AFL early due to injury. This is getting to be a pattern with him, and his inability to stay healthy is the one thing that stands between him and a productive big-league career. If he can lick the injuries and build on what he accomplished during the final two months of last season, expect Nady to arrive in San Diego sometime around the All-Star break. Although he may not put up big numbers right away, he’ll eventually be a force in the middle of the order. The peak of .280 with 30+ homers I projected for him last year still sounds about right to me.

#4
Tagg Bozied, 1B
DOB: 07/24/79
Acq: draft 2001, rd 3; U. of San Francisco
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 215

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  282  .298  .377  .546  35  60   3   4
Mob    AA  234  .214  .268  .389  16  43   1   0

Bozied is similar in many respects to Xavier Nady. Like Nady, he is a converted third baseman with loads of power. The main differences are that Bozied is more of a pull hitter and isn’t quite as agile in the field. After a hot start in his pro debut at Elsinore, Bozied struggled in his first exposure to Double-A but made progress as the season went on. He followed that up with a record-setting performance in the AFL. Bozied’s swing can get a bit long at times, and he’s not the most graceful defender, but seems to know what he’s doing at the plate. If he can build off his success in the AFL and make a strong showing at Mobile, Bozied could arrive in San Diego in September and compete for a job in 2004. His upside is a solid #5 type hitter in the mold of, say, Jay Buhner.

#5
Jake Gautreau, 2B
DOB: 11/14/79
Acq: draft 2001, rd 1; Tulane U.
Ht: 6’0″ Wt: 190

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  371  .286  .358  .426  42  86   2   3

Gautreau played third base at Tulane, but due to the glut of corner infielders in the organization, he moved to second base in his first full season as a pro. Gautreau possesses a smooth left-handed swing that generates doubles power. His stroke sometimes gets a little long, and he doesn’t have the lift that a classic home run hitter has. His statistical record at this point is comparable to those of Brad Fullmer and Corey Koskie at a similar stage of development. Defensively, Gautreau is not a terrific second baseman, nor is he likely to become one. He doesn’t have a great deal of range, but his hands are sure and he does a passable job of turning the double play. Being a former third baseman, he also has a very strong arm. It’s easy to look at Gautreau’s 2002 season and be disappointed. However, when considering that he was learning a more demanding defensive position and battling a serious intestinal ailment (he hit .306/.368/.480 before coming down with it, .230/.333/.289 after), his season should be considered a success. Gautreau still has work to do before he’s ready for prime time. He needs to get more comfortable at second base, be a little more patient at the plate, and stay healthy. If he can do those things at Mobile this year, with Mark Loretta’s contract up at the end of the year, look for Gautreau to make a push for a starting gig in San Diego when the new ballpark opens in 2004.

#6
Justin Germano, RHP
DOB: 08/06/82
Acq: draft 2000, rd 13; Claremont HS (Calif.)
Ht: 6’2″ Wt: 195

Club  Lvl     IP    H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
FtW    A   155.2  166  14  19  119  3.18
LkE    A+   19.0   12   1   5   18  0.95

Germano was named the Padres’ Minor-League Pitcher of the Year in 2002. The lanky right-hander from just north of San Diego experienced success at two Class-A levels last season. Germano doesn’t throw particularly hard (though he’s no John Stephens, either); his calling card is pinpoint control, as demonstrated by the Saberhagenesque 24 walks issued in 174 2/3 innings at Ft. Wayne and Lake Elsinore. In 30 starts (including the playoffs), he walked more than two batters in a game just once. The downside here is that at the tender age of 19, Germano worked 190+ innings if you count his playoff starts. That’s a very heavy workload for a kid his age. There’s a lot to like about Germano: he throws strikes, he has a good idea how to pitch, and he’s projectable; not all that different from Jake Peavy at a similar stage. But he was pushed pretty hard last year. The hope here is that his efficiency and mechanics will keep this from leading to trouble down the line. If Germano can avoid injuries, he could develop into a solid middle-rotation guy. He probably doesn’t have the upside of Peavy but he could follow in the footsteps of, say, Brian Lawrence. Who wouldn’t like that?

#7
Josh Barfield, 2B
DOB: 12/17/82
Acq: draft 2001, rd 4; Klein HS (Spring, Tex.)
Ht: 5’11″ Wt: 165

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
FtW    A   536  .306  .340  .403  26  105  26   8
LkE    A+   23  .087  .120  .087   1    4   0   0

Barfield enjoyed a solid showing in his first exposure to full-season ball. He runs very well and has some juice in his bat. There is talk that Barfield will move to the outfield at higher levels but for now he’s at second base. On offense, his main weakness is his plate discipline. With his speed, if he can learn to get on base more often, he could be a potent leadoff man. Right now the biggest things working in Barfield’s favor are his athleticism and his extreme youth: he doesn’t turn 21 until after the 2003 season. Keep an eye on him at Elsinore. If he learns to draw a few walks, he could be something.

#8
Ben Howard, RHP
DOB: 01/15/79
Acq: draft 1997, rd 2; Central Merry HS (Jackson, Tenn.)
Ht: 6’2″ Wt: 190

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Mob    AA  33.0  26   2  16  30  2.81
Por   AAA  45.0  47  10  15  25  6.20
SD     NL  10.2  13   4  14  10  9.28

It was an up-and-down year for Howard. On the positive side, after making the transition from thrower to pitcher in 2001, he made his big-league debut in April. On the negative side, his control problems resurfaced and he battled injuries in what in some ways was a wasted season. When healthy Howard throws mid-90s heat (his velocity was down when he was with the big club) and a good breaking ball. With the glut of options available to the Padres, Howard most likely will start the season at Portland, where he can get regular work and hopefully rediscover the success he enjoyed at Elsinore two years ago. There are a lot of good young arms in the system breathing down Howard’s neck. Although his window of opportunity as a starter is much smaller now than it was a year ago, Howard still has the stuff to succeed. He’s not out of the Padres plans, but he isn’t exactly on the front burner either. Howard is a power pitcher worth watching, although his future may lie in the bullpen.

#9
Mike Bynum, LHP
DOB: 03/20/78
Acq: draft 1999, rd 1; U. of North Carolina
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Mob    AA  33.0  17   0   7  29  0.82
Por   AAA  41.0  36   6   7  35  3.51
SD     NL  27.1  33   3  15  17  5.27

Bynum was one of the more polished college pitchers in his draft class and was expected to be pretty well established by now. But thanks to injuries, that hasn’t happened. After a wasted 2001, in which he pitched just 84 innings at Double-A, Bynum re-established himself this past season. He works with a low-90s fastball, and the slider is still filthy. Bynum began the year by dominating at Mobile before moving up to Portland, where he enjoyed further success. The fact that his strikeout-to-walk ratio didn’t break down on moving to the higher level is particularly encouraging. Working primarily out of the bullpen for the first time in his career, Bynum struggled in his initial trip to the Show. Given the new role and the small sample, I’m not putting too much stock in his performance in San Diego other than to look at it as a learning experience. Bynum finished his season with eight starts in the AFL, where he put up numbers comparable to what he’d done at Triple-A. It’s tough to get a read on Bynum right now because of his lost 2001 and because he spent so little time in any one place in 2002. He’ll be 25 this coming season. Like Ben Howard, Bynum is still in the Padres’ plans but he’s on the verge of being passed in favor of younger options. He has the stuff to be a solid #3 or #4 starter but may end up in the bullpen if he stays in the organization.

#10
Eric Cyr, LHP
DOB: 09/11/79
Acq: draft 1998, rd 30; Seminole (Okla.) JC
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO    ERA
Mob    AA  72.1  62   6  34  65   3.24
Por   AAA  14.1  14   0  10  11   3.14
SD     NL   6.0   6   0   6   4  10.50

Putting his well-documented off-field troubles behind him, Cyr continued his ascent and ended up working out of the bullpen for the Padres after Alan Embree was traded to Boston late in the season. Featuring a low-90s fastball, Cyr appeared to lose some of the aggressiveness that made him so successful in 2001. His secondary pitches aren’t strong enough that he can afford to have subpar command, which is what happened in 2002. With the plethora of young arms in the system, and given his history of injuries (Cyr spent time on the shelf again this season–shoulder tendinitis), if Cyr is to make it with the Padres, it’s probably as a reliever. Out of the bullpen he can concentrate on throwing two pitches for strikes and possibly become a power lefty a la Embree, Arthur Rhodes, or Mike Remlinger. Look for Cyr to get more work at Portland as a reliever before getting the call perhaps as soon as late May.

I was checking out stats for my domains yesterday and discovered that one of them had 108,000+ hits the other day. I’m a little slow sometimes, so my initial reaction was "wow, cool." Understand that normal traffic for that site is in the 300-500 range.

Upon further investigation, I’ve discovered that the vast majority of those came from a single IP address. So, thanks to the handy ARIN WHOIS Database I was able to find the technical contact for the domain in question. In all likelihood, someone has hijacked their network. Either that, or someone really likes the Padres.

Thankfully the technical contact has been nothing but helpful, so with luck that will be the end of that. There were a few other offending IP addresses, so I’ve blocked access to those as well. If the site seems a little slower than usual, it’s because the server has to verify that you’re not one of the bad guys (I know you’re not, but the computer has to figure it out for itself).

And who’s the wiseguy who visited Ducksnorts last month using Lynx? I probably shouldn’t show this to you, but here is what my blog looks like in Lynx. Ack. Get a new browser already.

HOF

Mark Davis (1 vote) and Sid Fernandez (2 votes) didn’t make it. The HOF is a sham!

Seriously, congratulations to Gary Carter and Eddie Murray for a much-deserved spot in Cooperstown. Carter grew up in the same town where I (mis)spent most of my youth. I remember him mainly as an Expo. What an arm.

My primary recollection of Murray is the night he played third base for the Dodgers in that marathon down in Houston. I know it’s a silly thing to remember about a great, great hitter but the mind is funny that way.

Sad to see Bert Blyleven (29.2%), Tommy John (23.4%), and Jim Kaat (26.2%) get so little support. Kaat now needs the Veterans Committee to come through for him if he’s to be enshrined in the HOF.

I was a bit surprised to see Jim Rice (52.2%), Andre Dawson (50%), and Ryne Sandberg (49.2%) fall so short. And how does Bruce Sutter (53.6%) get more support than those guys? Methinks the voters are giving him too much credit for the splitter.

Alan Trammell checked in at 14.1%, while Steve Garvey nabbed 27.8%. Pitiful. Here’s hoping that Tram has a great managerial career.

Mickey Tettleton didn’t get a single vote. How does Davis get one and not Tettleton? Not that it makes a difference, but still.

Anyway, congrats again to Carter and Murray…

Padres Top 20 Prospects: 11-20

As always, I’ve tried to balance upside with likelihood of success. This gives us a mix of kids who are far away (Sean Thompson, Javier Martinez, Henry Perez) and more experienced players (Brad Baker, Mike Rivera, Ben Johnson, Vince Faison, Rusty Tucker). Three of these guys made last year’s list as well (Johnson, #5 in 2002; Faison, #15; Perez, #25).

Without further ado, here’s the list…

#11
Sean Thompson, LHP
DOB: 10/13/82
Acq: draft 2002, rd 5; Thunder Ridge HS (La Junta, Colo.)
Ht: 5’11″ Wt: 165

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
IdF    R+  56.1  51   4  38  69  3.83

Shortly after drafting Thompson, Kevin Towers referred to him as "a left-hander, who throws 87-89 mph, but [who] has a good curve." An excellent outfielder in high school, Thompson had a solid pro debut against older competition in the Pioneer League. The good news is, he struck out 28% of the batters he faced. The downside is that he walked 15%. Thompson also unleashed 13 wild pitches in just over 56 innings. His stuff isn’t overpowering, so he’ll need to improve his control as he moves up the ranks and has to deal with more disciplined hitters. But the fact that Thompson was able to put the ball past guys coming out of college is an encouraging sign. Expect him to begin 2003 at Ft. Wayne and work his way up the ladder one rung at a time.

#12
Brad Baker, RHP
DOB: 09/11/79
Acq: draft 1999, rd 1 (Bos); Pioneer Valley HS (Layden, Mass.)
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Sar    A+  61.1  53   4  25  65  2.79
Mob    AA  64.1  47   5  45  57  4.48

Baker came over in the deal that sent Alan Embree to the Red Sox last summer. Baker has excellent stuff but hasn’t been consistent with it. He overpowered Florida State League hitters before coming to the Padres and being pushed to Double-A, where he struggled with his command. Baker also also worked 34 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Once again, he had high strikeout and high walk totals. Baker was left off the Padres’ 40-man roster this winter and exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Nobody selected him, which may send a message to the youngster that he needs to refine his approach if he’s to succeed at higher levels and ultimately reach the big leagues. Baker is young and has talent. The same can be said of many people. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, his upside is that of a #2 or #3 starter. A move to the bullpen may also be in order at some point. This season will tell us a lot about what the future holds for Baker.

#13
Mike Rivera, C
DOB: 09/08/76
Acq: free agent 1997, Puerto Rico
Ht: 6’0″ Wt: 205

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
Tol   AAA  265  .249  .341  .525  35  64   0   1
Det    AL  132  .227  .254  .326   4  35   0   0

Acquired this winter from Detroit in a trade for Eugene Kingsale, Rivera hasn’t shown much in his brief exposure to big-league pitching, but his minor-league credentials are impressive. Although his batting average wasn’t great in 2002, his secondary skills were solid. Rivera displayed a decent batting eye, and nearly half of his hits went for extra bases. He won’t be Mike Piazza. He probably won’t even be Jorge Posada. But he might be a better version of Jim Leyritz, and a guy with that skill set should be able to have a career. Rivera will compete with incumbent Wiki Gonzalez for the starting catching job in 2003. The most likely scenario has him getting 250-300 plate appearances, hitting around .230/.300/.430. Rivera won’t be a star, but he gives the Padres much-needed depth behind the plate and ultimately should help the Padres more than Kingsale would have.

#14
Cory Stewart, LHP
DOB: 11/14/79
Acq: draft 1998, rd 27 (Cin); Boerne HS (Tex.)
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 185

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
FtW    A   64.0  46   4  18  86  2.39
LkE    A+  64.2  60   3  29  69  3.20

An indy-league refugee, Stewart signed with the Padres following the 2001 season. In his first year with the organization, Stewart opened some eyes by dominating the Midwest League and continuing his success in the more advanced California League. The Padres thought so much of Stewart that they added him to the 40-man roster this winter. His fastball runs in the low-90s and his breaking ball is developing, although he still needs to gain more consistency with it. Stewart should return to Elsinore in 2003, where he’ll continue to refine his repertoire. Expect to see him at Mobile or possibly even Portland before season’s end. Although he doesn’t have the pedigree of some prospects, Stewart is making a name for himself; he could develop into a #4 or #5 starter, or he could become a swing man in the Terry Mulholland mode.

#15
Ben Johnson, OF
DOB: 06/18/81
Acq: draft 1999, rd 4 (StL); Germantown (Tenn.) HS
Ht: 6’1″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
Mob    AA  456  .241  .337  .375  65  127  11   9

Highly touted coming into last season by many observers (myself included), Johnson slipped a bit in 2002. More accurately, he didn’t show any development. The tools that made Johnson a prospect are still there: He draws walks, he’s strong, and he runs well. The bad news is that he isn’t hitting for average, his strength isn’t translating into much power, and his speed isn’t translating into stolen bases. The good news is that his plate discipline is improving. His walk rate went up and his strikeout rate fell even as he moved up a level (PA is AB + BB in this case):

       PA  ISO BB/PA SO/PA
2001  557 .165  .097  .253
2002  521 .134  .125  .244

The other good news is that Johnson is only 22 years old, so he’s got time to learn how to put his tools to use. The Padres left him off the 40-man roster this winter but he went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. Johnson probably would benefit by at least starting the season at Double-A but the Pads have been fairly aggressive in promoting their toolsy prospects of late (see their handling of Vince Faison, for example), so it’s more likely that he’ll spend the year at Portland. If he can learn to use his strength, Johnson still could turn into another Brian Jordan. But I don’t like his chances now as much as I did at this time last year.

#16
Vince Faison, OF
DOB: 1/22/81
Acq: draft 1999, rd 1; Toombs County (Ga.) HS
Ht: 6’0″ Wt: 180

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
Mob    AA  359  .253  .339  .404  39  103   5   7

First the good news. Faison is young. He’s strong and fast, and he’s willing to take a walk. And he did a lot better in his first exposure to Double-A pitching than might reasonably have been expected based on his 2001 performance. Now the bad news: Faison’s strength hasn’t yet translated into overwhelming power. He isn’t using his speed well. He strikes out too much. He’s not a center fielder. Last year I wrote that Faison "could become a solid #6 hitter down the line." That still seems about right to me. The fact that Faison was able to bounce back from a terrible year while moving up a level is a good sign, as is his ability to hold his own in the AFL. With plenty of more experienced outfielders in the system and given his youth, expect Faison to start 2003 back at Mobile. But if he can make use of his considerable talent, his stay in the Southern League could be brief. Keep an eye on this one.

#17
Rusty Tucker, LHP
DOB: 07/15/80
Acq: draft 2001, rd 21; U. of Maine
Ht: 6’1″ Wt: 190

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
FtW    A   35.2  19   2  10  50  1.01
LkE    A+  29.2  26   1  18  33  2.43

Tucker is one of the more intriguing stories in the Padre system. A soft-tossing starting pitcher at the University of Maine, he was moved to the bullpen as a pro. After a lackluster 2001, Tucker saw his velocity move into the mid- to high-90s (93-96 mph when I’ve seen him) as he carved up hitters in the Midwest League before finishing up in the California League and the AFL. In addition to the heat, Tucker also features a plus slider that is especially tough on left-handers. Tucker will spend 2003 at Mobile but could move quickly. His likely future is as a lefty specialist in the mold of, say, Alan Embree.

#18
Mike Nicolas, RHP
DOB: 11/05/81
Acq: free agent 2000, Dominican Republic
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 207

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
LkE    A+  77.1  49   4  42  121  2.91

The first time I saw Nicolas pitch was at Elsinore in August 2001. He was brutal in his debut (one out, five runs), but the scouts were buzzing. Nicloas’ fastball runs anywhere from 91-97 mph, generally settling in around 94-95. His breaking ball is improving, though he still has occasional lapses of command. In 2003, Nicolas likely will serve again as Rusty Tucker’s primary setup man, this time at Double-A. He already has the ability to put the ball past hitters; if he keeps his walk totals down, he could be another Felix Rodriguez.

#19
Javier Martinez, RHP
DOB: 12/09/82
Acq: free agent 2000, Mexico
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 170

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Eug    A-  10.0   4   2   5   6  4.50
FtW    A   69.1  55   5  19  69  3.38

Martinez exploded onto the scene last summer in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old. He has a good build, with which he’s able to generate a fastball that runs in the low-90s. He complements the heater with a solid curve. Martinez used to feature a splitter as well, but he tended to fall in love with the pitch and couldn’t control it very well, so that’s been ditched from the arsenal. Martinez is young, he’s coachable, and if he keeps doing what he did last year, he’ll follow Oliver Perez in appearing to come out of nowhere and give the Padres another young, marketable Mexican player. With so little pro experience it’s hard to project what path his career might take, but keep an eye on Martinez. He’s a good bet to make next year’s top 10.

#20
Henry Perez, RHP
DOB: 10/27/82
Acq: free agent 1999, Dominican Republic
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 210

Club  Lvl   IP    H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
IdF    R+  74.1  73   4  36  70  4.72

I’ll make the same comment this year about Perez as I did last year: His primary asset at this point is youth. Perez has good raw stuff but his command is shaky. It’s hard to get a good read on him since he hasn’t pitched in a full-season league. Perez is projectable and could come quickly, but there’s also a pretty high flameout possibility here.

Quick comparison of Perez’ 2001 and 2002 seasons at Idaho Falls:

        IP  H/9 BB/9  SO/9 HR/9  ERA
2001  71.2 9.92 4.90 10.30 1.26 6.28
2002  74.1 8.84 4.36  8.48 0.48 4.72

This is the very definition of baby steps. He didn’t strike out as many batters in 2002, but his hit prevention, walks, and especially homers allowed were much better. Keep an eye on Perez in 2003. If he has a solid showing at Ft. Wayne, he could show up on the radar in a hurry.

We’ll take a look at Padre prospects 1-10 next Wednesday. Tomorrow it’s back to Sickels and win shares…