Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

First off, thanks for all the well wishes. I’m doing fine, nothing is wrong; just needed some time off. I’m still on hiatus, but the All-Star teams have been announced and I just had to say something. First I’ll give you my picks, then I’ll kibbitz about the actual picks, then I’ll go back into my cave for another week before getting up to collect more nuts and berries.

My All-Star Teams

I have to admit, I don’t really care too much about the All-Star game. It used to be a meaningless exhibition game which was occassionally fun to watch because almost everyone got to play. Now it rather bizarrely determines home-field advantage for the World Series, which means a lot of guys selected won’t even get to stand up, let alone step onto the playing field. I don’t know who this was supposed to create more interest for, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t me. Whatever.

I chose 30 guys for each squad, with each Major League team represented; the first player at each position (first three outfielders) is the starter.

National

Hitters

C   Javy Lopez, Atl; Ivan Rodriguez, Fla
1B  Todd Helton, Col; Jim Thome, Phi;
    Richie Sexson, Mil
2B  Jose Vidro, Mon; Jeff Kent, Hou*
3B  Mike Lowell, Fla; Scott Rolen, StL;
    Sean Burroughs, SD
SS  Edgar Renteria, StL; Rafael Furcal, Atl;
    Alex Gonzalez, Fla
OF  Barry Bonds, SF; Albert Pujols, StL;
    Jim Edmonds, StL; Luis Gonzalez, Ari;
    Richard Hidalgo, Hou; Brian Giles, Pit;
    Jose Guillen, Cin
DH  Gary Sheffield, Atl

Pitchers

SP  Kevin Brown, LA; Russ Ortiz, SF;
    Shawn Chacon, Col*; Woody Williams, StL;
    Jason Schmidt, SF; Mark Prior, ChC;
    Hideo Nomo, LA
RP  John Smoltz, Atl; Eric Gagne, LA;
    Octavio Dotel, Hou; Armando Benitez, NYM

* injured

Guys who just missed the cut: Mike Lieberthal, Phi; Paul LoDuca, LA; Ryan Klesko, SD; Ray Durham, SF; Marcus Giles, Atl; Aaron Boone, Cin; Orlando Cabrera, Mon; Steve Finley, Ari; Guillermo Mota, LA

Guys who made it because of the 1-per team rule and who would have gone in their stead without it: Armando Benitez, NYM (Mota); Richie Sexson, Mil (Durham); Sean Burroughs, SD (Lieberthal); Jose Guillen, Cin (Finley)

American

Hitters

C   Jason Varitek, Bos; Jorge Posada, NYY
1B  Carlos Delgado, Tor; Mike Sweeney, KC*;
    Jason Giambi, NYY
2B  Bret Boone, Sea; Alfonso Soriano, NYY
3B  Hank Blalock, Tex; Bill Mueller, Bos
SS  Alex Rodriguez, Tex; Nomar Garciaparra, Bos
OF  Manny Ramirez, Bos; Trot Nixon, Bos;
    Milton Bradley, Cle; Melvin Mora, Bal;
    Garret Anderson, Ana; Dmitri Young, Det;
    Eric Byrnes, Oak; Aubrey Huff, TB
DH  Edgar Martinez, Sea; Frank Thomas, CWS

Pitchers

SP  Roy Halladay, Tor; Jamie Moyer, Sea;
    Esteban Loaiza, CWS; Mark Mulder, Oak;
    Pedro Martinez, Bos
RP  Brendan Donnelly, Ana; Shigetosi Hasegawa, Sea;
    Keith Foulke, Oak; Eddie Guardado, Min;
    Mike MacDougal, KC

* injured

Guys who just missed the cut: Tim Hudson, Oak; C.C. Sabathia, Cle; Mariano Rivera, NYY; Greg Myers, Tor; Kevin Millar, Bos; Michael Young, Tex; Todd Walker, Bos; Troy Glaus, Ana; Corey Koskie, Min; Vernon Wells, Tor

Guys who made it because of the 1-per team rule and who would have gone in their stead without it: Eddie Guardado, Min (Hudson); Mike MacDougal, KC (Sabathia)

The Actual All Star Teams

National

For complete rosters, check out ESPN or some other similar source. I’ll just tell you where I think they went wrong (stats through games of July 6).

Hitters

Jose Vidro .327/.416/.510
Marcus Giles .282/.359/.460

Mike Lowell .284/.355/.594
Scott Rolen .285/.390/.536

Ivan Rodriguez .296/.377/.496
Mike Lieberthal .326/.390/.443
Paul LoDuca .303/.361/.430

Jose Guillen .350/.404/.650
Brian Giles .311/.448/.532
Richard Hidalgo .312/.389/.552
Rondell White .285/.338/.493

Marcus Giles over Jose Vidro is a mistake. Scott Rolen vs Mike Lowell is a virtual wash. I rewarded Lowell for all the homers. Aaron Boone as a reserve at 3B is iffy, for reasons I’ll get into in a moment. Paul LoDuca was right on the cusp, in my mind, although I have a hard time distingushing him from Mike Lieberthal, which is why I’m not sure it’s fair to bring one and not the other. And given that Ivan Rodriguez is having a slightly better season than both (and has a much better career record), I don’t think there’s room for either. LoDuca is a defensible pick, but I don’t believe it’s the right pick. Preston Wilson I don’t have a real problem with, although I think some people still don’t quite understand the impact of Coors Field. Andruw Jones didn’t make the cut in my book either, but his defensive ability and track record probably make him a more sensible pick than Jose Guillen (especially if you’ve already blown your obligatory Red on Boone).

The one guy that I cannot believe was selected to the team, and this is why I don’t like the choice of Boone, is Rondell White. No disrespect to White, who is making both the Yankees and me look extremely bad right now, but how does he get in over the likes of Richard Hidalgo, Brian Giles, and Jose Guillen (whose batting average is higher than White’s on base percentage)? I know you have to bring someone from the Padres, but if not Sean Burroughs, then why not Mark Loretta or even Jake Peavy? Heck, Ryan Klesko is probably a better option. I don’t get it.

Pitchers

Hideo Nomo 9-7, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Kerry Wood 8-6, 3.36 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Billy Wagner 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 22 SV
Octavio Dotel 1.99 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 17 H, 3 SV

As for the pitching staff, I like Nomo over Kerry Wood, but Wood strikes out a ton of guys, so many people mistake him for a great pitcher. Not a horrible pick, but not the right pick either. Octavio Dotel vs Billy Wagner is very close. Wagner gets the saves, so he gets the call. Randy Wolf is a deserving choice, and I don’t have a real problem with him over, say, Alex Gonzalez if you want an extra pitcher. All in all, I can’t really complain a lot about the pitching staff.

[Late note: I have just learned that Mike Williams is the Pirates' lone representative. Yes, the one with the 6.29 ERA, 21 BB, and 15 SO in 34.1 IP. Williams is the second worst reliever on his own team (thanks to Brian Boehringer and his 7.24 ERA), but because the Bucs keep handing him the ball in the ninth, he's somehow managed to accumulate 24 saves despite the horrible numbers. Anyway, all that stuff I say about Hideki Matusi below--well, most of it still applies. But Williams' inclusion on an All-Star team this year in a game that allegedly now carries meaning is an absolute farce.]

American

For complete rosters, check out ESPN or some other similar source. I’ll just tell you where I think they went wrong (stats through games of July 6).

Hitters

Jason Varitek .297/.360/.581
Jorge Posada .254/.396/.500
Ramon Hernandez .270/.329/.464

Bret Boone .310/.368/.579
Alfonso Soriano .300/.354/.527

Bill Mueller .330/.402/.559
Troy Glaus .260/.359/.488

Melvin Mora .361/.457/.591
Milton Bradley .346/.451/.534
Trot Nixon .318/.408/.567
Garret Anderson .308/.338/.582
Eric Byrnes .313/.379/.541
Aubrey Huff .307/.366/.548
Carl Everett .272/.354/.533
Magglio Ordonez .284/.355/.521
Hideki Matsui .311/.371/.467

Jorge Posada over Jason Varitek is a mistake (although not a huge one), but Posada’s a Yankee so he gets the nod. Alfonso Soriano over Bret Boone is also a mistake; Soriano is also a Yankee. Troy Glaus, stud that hey may be, doesn’t deserve it this year. And his inclusion likely led to the omission of Bill Mueller, which is a real shame. Mueller may never get another opportunity, and there weren’t many more deserving this season. Ichiro Suzuki is probably a mistake, though with his defense and popularity, I can see it. Hideki Matsui is an absolute joke and, incidentally, an excellent example of why this game is still meaningless. There is absolutely no way he should be starting over the likes of Trot Nixon, Milton Bradley, Melvin Mora, or Garret Anderson (to say nothing of guys like Eric Byrnes, Aubrey Huff, or Magglio Ordonez). I can count on one finger the number of things Matsui does better than those guys: play home games in New York. Terrible, terrible choice.

For the reserves, Ramon Hernandez over Jason Varitek makes no sense, unless Varitek has said he wouldn’t play. Carl Everett over Trot Nixon or Milton Bradley I can see. I don’t like it, but it’s a lot more fathomable than sticking Matsui out there.

Pitchers

Lance Carter 4.17 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 14 SV (6 BS)
Pedro Martinez 6-2, 2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Mike Mussina 10-5, 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

The pitching staff, admittedly, was tough to put together. The selection of Lance Carter is goofy. Aubrey Huff was a better candidate from the Devil Rays, and Carter’s inclusion keeps Pedro Martinez off the team (or, if his lack of wins bugs you, the equally deserving Mike Mussina). C.C. Sabathia is a worthy choice, and he definitely would have made my team had I chosen to take an extra pitcher (actually, had I not mistakenly thought that the rosters were set at 30 players, I certainly would have added Sabathia).

Well, those are one man’s thoughts. What are yours? See ya next week. Be good…

Two in a row. Break up the Padres!

Great pitching from Adam Eaton. Three hits from Sean Burroughs. A Mark Kotsay homer. A Mark Loretta game-winning homer. Heck, Rod Beck saved another game. I don’t want a jinx ‘em, but these guys are playing some ball!

And on the farm, Tagg Bozied hit another bomb Monday night for Portland. Khalil Greene singled, walked, and was hit by a pitch last night. That’s his fourth HBP since moving up to Triple-A last week. Weird. Speaking of weird, Jaret Wright homered and picked up the win in relief of Brian Tollberg, who thanks to a lengthy rain delay, threw just 16 pitches before departing with one out in the first.

Also, Alex Fernandez had three hits. Jonathan at PDX Beavers is a big fan of his and implores me to "get in on the front seat of the Alex Bandwagon." Not yet, my friend, but if he can start showing any semblance of plate discipline, then maybe the Padres have something.

Speaking of guys who don’t get a lot of play, right-hander Chris Oxspring has moved into the rotation at Mobile. He pitched out of the bullpen at Elsinore last year and for the first couple months of this season. Baseball America rated him the Pads’ 28th best prospect coming into the season. He’s got a terrific curve ball, and according to BA the Padres had been trying to convert him to a starter for a while. Now healthy and taking a regular spot in the rotation, Oxspring is putting up some numbers (55.1 IP, 54 H, 2 HR, 27 BB, 61 SO, 3.74 ERA). Someone worth watching.

I gotta run. Pads shoot for three straight tonight. Wonder how long it’s been since that happened…

His command isn’t what it once was. His velocity isn’t what it once was. But that moustache is still as good as ever. Ladies and gentlemen, Rod Beck recorded his first save in two years and the Padres didn’t blow a lead yesterday. How about that?

A few thoughts from the series:

• Ryan Klesko’s bunt against Chicago’s Damaso Marte Friday night was a thing of beauty. The ChiSox had their shortstop playing directly behind second base, so there was a ton of room on the left side of the infield. At the time, Klesko was hitting .132/.246/.189 against southpaws, while Marte was holding left-handed hitters to .225/.311/.275. Klesko dropped a beauty right down the line, and if he’d hit it just a bit harder he might’ve had a double. Very heads-up baseball.
• Kevin Jarvis looked about like you’d expect a guy who hasn’t pitched in a year to look. But once he builds his stamina, he should help soak innings, which will help the bullpen, which in turn will lessen the temptation for Bruce Bochy to overwork the youngsters.
• Speaking of overworking the youngsters, probably the only thing more disturbing than the radio guys talking about giving Donaldo Mendez part of the shortstop job when Ramon Vazquez returns is Rick Sutcliffe’s obsession with minor leaguers pitchers not being allowed to complete games. Does Kevin Towers have tapes of his broadcasts? Sutcliffe knows a lot about pitching (I know, he said so), but is this really someone the Padres want around their young pitchers? If he’s willing to question the Pads’ organizational plan to protect young arms on television, one shudders to think what he might be saying in private to some of these kids. I hope I’m reading too much into this, but I cringe every time I hear Sutcliffe scoff at the club’s philosophy.
• Oliver Perez looked okay in his return. Not as good as the numbers would indicate, but better than he’s looked in a long time. The positives are that he maintained a pretty consistent arm slot (not once did he drop down from the side; there were no lefties in the lineup) and he appeared more willing to use pitches other than his fastball. In particular, he broke off a few real nice backdoor curves against right-handed hitters. Very nice. Oh, and he did win the game, 1-0. On the downside, he still worked behind in the count too often, he overthrew on occasion, and he wasn’t as efficient as he could be (109 pitches in 6 2/3 innings is better, but not great). Also, of the 19 outs he recorded, 6 were strikeouts and the other 13 were fly balls. At least three of those fly outs were absolutely tattooed (including one off the bat of Miguel Olivo in the fifth which Mark Kotsay somehow managed to track down in left-center and which would have tied the game). To make a long story somewhat shorter, Perez did a lot of things right and the outcome was good. But he still has work to do; in my estimation, he cannot continue to have positive results if he displays the approach he had on Sunday. But if he keeps improving from start to start (and his return was a real good first step), there is cause for hope. Expect inconsistency for the rest of this season, but look for slow progress.
• Teams probably shouldn’t be so eager to run on Xavier Nady, who after nailing Magglio Ordonez at the plate in the fourth by a laughable margin now has nine outfield assists this year. Nady doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world, but it’s better than you might expect from a guy who’s had elbow problems. And he charges the ball well and generally is accurate with his throws. His defense in right field, although not great, has been a pleasant surprise so far.
• Gary Matthews Jr. continues to impress. After falling behind in the count, 0-2, to lead off the game, he eventually worked a walk from Jon Garland (who looked very good). Later in the inning, he nearly drove Garland to distraction dancing off second before getting a huge jump and swiping third. Best part was hearing Sutcliffe get flustered after having spent much of the inning taking Garland to task for paying so much attention to Matthews, who certainly wasn’t going to run in that situation.

Also made it out to Elsinore Saturday night for Michael Johnson’s pro debut. He doubled in five at-bats, but he hit the ball hard every time up and, cliche though it may be, the ball did sound different coming off his bat. He also, despite committing what was ruled an error on a pretty sharply hit grounder, displayed good movement around the bag at first and generally looked more athletic than I’d anticipated. My general impression is that the Cal League probably won’t prove much of a challenge for Johnson.

Greg Sain worked behind the plate. Had a rough time, allowing six stolen bases (bounced a couple of throws) and getting absolutely flattened on a play at home. But he did drive in two runs. Josh Barfield (who after Sunday’s game is hitting .359/.398/.552 on the year) continued his assault on Cal League pitching with three hits and a walk.

Modesto outfielder Gary Thomas also caught my eye. He played a solid center field, made some nice throws, and was a pest at the plate and on the bases. He’s short and kind of stocky, but the guy can play. Reminded me a little of a right-handed version of former Padre farmhand Warren Newson.

For more on Johnson and his debut, check out the NC Times:

• Shaky pitching, fielding doom Storm (in which we also learn that fourth-round pick Peter Stonard [who made his debut Sunday at third base] has joined the club, as has Brad Baker)
• After a year of negotiations, Johnson arrives to make pro debut

Khalil Greene

I don’t mean to dwell on the guy, but Greene is making himself impossible to ignore. He had two singles, a double, and a homer in Saturday’s game at Albuquerque. Greene did pull an 0-for-4 Sunday against former Padre Scott Sanders but is hitting .357/.419/.679 over 28 at-bats so far. No walks (but 3 HBP) against 10 strikeouts is about the only thing not to like. Still, it’s hard not to wonder whether Kevin Towers’ pre-season suggestion that Greene could be up after All-Star break might happen. If Mark Loretta is traded, Greene could play shortstop and Vazquez move back to second. I’m not sure how much I like that idea, but it wouldn’t surprise me too see such a scenario unfold.

Also at Portland, Tagg Bozied is heating up: .259/.330/.429. Not great, but he’s made steady progress over the course of the season, which is always good. And he’s controlling the strike zone pretty well, with 21 walks and 36 strikeouts in 205 at-bats.

So how many folks are still actually watching the games at this point? If you are, drop me a line at why-oh-why-in-the-world-do-I-do-this-to-myself-please-make-it-stop-I-want-to-die@geoffreynyoung.com and let me know how that’s working for you.

Khalil Greene

Second day at Triple-A better than the first. He drove in five runs last night at Colorado Springs.

GM for a Day

Well, I’ve moved past the "game watching" phase of the season and into the "let’s think about anything but what’s happening on the field" phase. With that in mind, I give you some ideas of moves I might make if I were GM for a day.

My methods for constructing this were highly unscientific. Basically I drew up a list of marketable commodities on the Padres (precious few, as it turns out) and another list of teams within five games of a playoff spot (there are 16 such teams). Then I tried to figure out which teams need what we have, and what on each of those clubs might be of value to the Pads (primarily young catchers and outfielders).

The guys that should fetch the most interest are Mark Loretta and Rondell White. These are established big leaguers who play pretty much every day and who could help a contender but who are essentially useless to the Padres.

Of the contenders, the most likely suitors for Loretta appear to be Minnesota (Luis Rivas, .255/.298/.342) and Los Angeles (Alex Cora, .248/.295/.332). Both teams have some decent catching prospects, so there’s potential for a deal here.

The Twins have a kid in their system who is caught between Scylla and Charybdis (or in this case, between Mauer and Pierzynski). His name is Rob Bowen and he used to be highly regarded before suffering through a miserable .184/.272/.313 FSL campaign last year. He’s moved up to Double-A and he’s hitting a ton of doubles and showing good plate discipline. Bowen is a switch-hitter who has "advanced receiving skills, plus the arm and quick release to deter basestealers" (Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2002). He’s drawn comparisons to Ben Davis, which would be a welcome upgrade from anyone currently in the system. Bowen isn’t a great prospect, but he’s got promise and the Twins have less use for him than they ought to for a guy like Loretta.

Minnesota also has a glut of outfield talent. Bobby Kielty is the guy everyone over at Fanstop talks about, but I’m not sure Loretta alone would be enough to land him. Throw in a Brad Baker or Mike Bynum, and maybe something happens.

The Dodgers also have an intriguing possibility in Koyie Hill, who was more highly regarded than Bowen coming into the season but who isn’t doing a whole lot so far this year. I’d think that, being in the same division, the Dodgers might be a little hesitant to move one of their top prospects to a rival. Unless, of course, they don’t consider the Padres a real threat, in which case all bets are off.

All-but-forgotten Chin-Feng Chen and converted infielder Jason Repko are a couple other players I’d be looking at if I called the shots for the Pads.

Kansas City, which nominally has Carlos Febles at second, is a lesser candidate for the services of Loretta thanks to the play of Angel Berroa and Desi Relaford. A healthy Lou Merloni, who can fill in at multiple positions, might be a better fit. And White would almost certainly be useful to the Royals.

The Royals have a few intriguing options behind the plate. Mike Tonis is the most advanced of the group, but he’s battled injury problems throughout his career and his upside isn’t that high. His OPS is below 700 right now at Wichita, an environment ordinarily very favorable to hitters. A potentially useful player, but probably not enough for White.

Another interesting young player in Kansas City is outfielder Dee Brown. He’s on the DL right now and still very raw. But he has a lot of athletic ability, and the shine that went with his prospect status has largely faded. Maybe he’s something, maybe he’s nothing. But the Padres could do a lot worse than to take a shot on a guy like Brown. Would White for Tonis and Brown work? I dunno. Might make a good starting point, though. Or perhaps Alexis Gomez could be gotten? He’s having a terrible time at Omaha, but he’s still young and I doubt the Royals have given up on him yet.

Well, when all is said and done, I think I’d try to work the Loretta-for-Bowen (or Loretta-and-something-for-Kielty) angle with Minnesota. Then I’d talk to the Royals and see what could be done involving one or two of Gomez, Brown, and Tonis. If I could somehow turn Loretta, White, and a second-tier pitching prospect into Kielty and Tonis (or, leaving out the pitcher, Bowen and Brown/Gomez), I think I’d be pretty happy.

I think I probably wouldn’t be sitting around writing a blog, either. More likely, the few useful parts of the bullpen will be shipped off for less-than-marginal prospects and there will be no takers for Kevin Jarvis. We’ll see how it all plays out…

Another day, another loss. Here’s a novel idea: How about giving Scott Linebrink a chance to start? He threw 63 pitches last night in relief of Brian Tollberg. If a guy can throw 63, he probably can throw 90, right?

On the bright side, Jay Witasick made his 2003 debut yesterday, throwing a perfect eighth inning and striking out two. The Padres’ biggest free agent acquisition made it to the party just in time to get himself traded. He, Matt Herges, Brian Buchanan, Rondell White, Dave Hansen, and Mark Loretta would appear to be the big prizes in this year’s Padre giveaway. Don’t expect a lot in return for any of those guys if/when they are moved.

Buckets of Salt

Haven’t done one of these in a while:

 AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG
310 93 12  3  3 21 43 .300 .344 .387
278 74 16  1  9 32 66 .266 .342 .428

I’ll give you a hint. Both are in their second year in the big leagues, both play third base. These are their lines as big leaguers, less what they did this April.

Top one is Sean Burroughs, bottom Hank Blalock. Speaking of fun with small samples, here’s what Brock2 currently shows for their peaks:

Burroughs: .311/.372/.424
Blalock: .321/.400/.574

For grins, here’s what it spews forth for Nady: .304/.357/.498.

Buckets of salt here, folks. Just having some fun. You know, that thing that happens when your team occasionally wins a game?

Other Stuff

Khalil Greene homered in his Triple-A debut (actually the second game of a doubleheader): Beavers win one, lose one against Sky Sox (Oregonian)

Found some information on Padres’ fourth-round pick Peter Stonard.

Hey look, somebody else out there likes the Padres: The Inside Pitch. Looks like these guys have been blogging for a few months now. Pretty good stuff over there; check it out when you have a moment.