Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Few quick notes from Tuesday night’s game:

• Didn’t get to our seats till the bottom of the second, so we missed Brian Giles’ first Padre at-bat in San Diego. From the ticket window it sounded like he got a pretty good reception. And all the folks, such as myself, who missed his first trip to the plate cheered wildly in his second.
• Ben Howard looked good. Scoreboard had his fastball at 91-94 mph. Had his changeup at 86-87, which doesn’t seem like enough separation to me. Weird thing about Howard is once or twice an inning, he’ll throw a pitch that isn’t anywhere near the plate. I mean, it’s hard even to figure out what he’s trying to do with those. Howard also collected his first big-league hit, a grounder between third and short.
• Phil Nevin hit a bomb to left-center that landed about four rows in front of us. I didn’t pick up the trajectory until it was maybe 30-40 feet away. Man, am I glad it landed where it did. That would’ve been hard to explain. (Just saw the replay on TV; I’m the idiot in the upper right corner standing and waving his hands in the air like he just doesn’t care.)
• Sean Burroughs had a single and was hit twice by pitches. If I’m counting correctly, he’s been plunked four times now in the 10 games he’s batted leadoff.
• Does anyone know what third base umpire Jim Reynolds was watching when he called Mark Loretta’s homer foul? If the ball lands in the stands directly beyond fair territory, that’s generally a good indication that the ball was fair. Thankfully at least one of the other guys in the crew saw what happened and reversed the call. But it does make you wonder what Reynolds was doing there if not watching the ball.
• I don’t know that I’ve ever seen four left-handers pitch for the same team in the same game before last night.
• John Patterson looked pretty good for the Diamondbacks in his two innings of work. His fastball was barely cracking 90, but that overhand curveball was something.
• Trevor made his 2003 debut. Received a standing ovation when he entered to start the seventh. Retired the side on eight pitches. Fastball ran about 86 mph, not too far off his normal velocity. Great to see him back on the mound.
• No Khalil Greene. With the lefty on the mound, I liked my chances. But it wasn’t to be. Oh well, two out of three ain’t bad.

Before I launch into the "Welcome Brian Giles" portion of this entry, I’d just like to say that I’m sorry to see Ollie Perez and Rondell White go. In my excitement about picking up Giles, I’m not sure I made that clear. I’ve been following Perez for a long time, and I think he’s got a lot of promise. I’m still not convinced the Pads did the right thing by rushing him through the minors so quickly, but maybe it won’t make a difference in the long run. He’s a good kid and I wish him well. Supposedly he offered to start Tuesday night’s game even after word came down that he’d been traded. Gotta like that.

As for White, I was very critical of the deal that brought him here this spring. I didn’t think he’d be much better than Bubba Trammell, and I really hated the idea of giving up Mark Phillips. Well, Trammell did absolutely nothing for the Yankees before leaving the team and Phillips has regressed, unable to make his way out of A-ball. White, meantime, stayed healthy and made the All-Star team. And by all accounts he exuded nothing but class in the clubhouse. He was a positive influence on the kids, and even though that can be overblown by some media types, it can’t be dismissed entirely. White reminded me a bit of Greg Vaughn in his stay here. Not a lot of flash, just a guy who goes out there and gets it done. I hope White does well with the Royals and gets a chance to play in the postseason. (Starting in left field and batting sixth, he singled and tripled in four at-bats in his first game with Kansas City.)

And hey, Jason Bay singled, doubled, and walked in his Pirate debut, as Pittsburgh downed the Marlins. Anyone that helps keep Jeff Loria’s team out of the playoffs can’t be all bad. Like White, Bay started in left and batted sixth. Oddly, both the Royals and the Bucs won via shutout.

A few more thoughts about Brian Giles, and what his acquisition means to the Padres. First off, you may have noticed that Xavier Nady wasn’t included in yesterday’s projected 2004 lineup. That’s not an error; I just don’t see any place for him on next year’s version of the club. Not unless they move one of Ryan Klesko or Phil Nevin, which doesn’t strike me as very likely. Another thing to bear in mind is that apparently the Jason Kendall talks aren’t dead. If something happens on that front this winter, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Nady involved.

Meantime, the Padre lineup suddenly features a bunch of really good left-handed hitters. How much will that affect them next year? Let’s take a look at the splits of each of the lefties slated to be in the starting lineup:

2003
                vs LHP              vs RHP
           AB   BA  OBP  SLG   AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Burroughs  97 .309 .387 .485  309 .288 .352 .401
Giles     119 .277 .407 .471  269 .309 .440 .453
Klesko     97 .186 .269 .340  285 .270 .383 .491
Kotsay    108 .222 .311 .324  275 .273 .351 .378

2000-2002
                vs LHP              vs RHP
           AB   BA  OBP  SLG   AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Burroughs  55 .218 .246 .218  137 .292 .345 .365
Giles     428 .264 .368 .449 1204 .323 .449 .655
Klesko    442 .267 .354 .430 1130 .299 .401 .571
Kotsay    399 .291 .345 .429 1115 .295 .361 .452

Well, among other things, that justifies the presence of Brian Buchanan and Gary Matthews Jr. on the bench to spell Klesko and Kotsay against tough lefties. It also makes you think about the left-handed starters in the NL West. Who all is out there?

• Arizona: Randy Johnson (39)
• Colorado: Denny Neagle (34)
• Los Angeles: Odalis Perez (26)
• San Francisco: Kirk Rueter (32)

Johnson is one of the all-time greats, but with the way he’s pitching this year, who knows how much he’s got left in the tank? Perez is good at times. The other two aren’t much to write home about. Tell ya what, if I’m the Diamondbacks or the Giants, I’m shopping for a southpaw this winter. I wouldn’t want to go up against the Pads next year with a bunch of right-handers.

The Game

Okay, so maybe it doesn’t merit such a lofty title. But Wednesday night marked the beginning of the Brian Giles era. And it began with a bang. Brian Lawrence surrendered two first-inning runs, but the Padres, with their new lineup, scored 10 unanswered runs to win a laugher. In the process, they took their third straight series. Oh yeah, and they did it against Curt Schilling. Nice.

Here are Giles’ at-bats in the game:

Top 1st, Burroughs on 1st, one out
Pitch 1: 90 mph low and away, ball 1
Pitch 2: 87 mph up, ball 2
Pitch 3: 85 mph backdoor breaking ball out over the plate; single to left-center, Burroughs to third

Top 3rd, Loretta on 1st, Burroughs on 3rd, one out
Pitch 1: breaking ball down and in; ground single between first and second, Burroughs scores

Top 5th, nobody on, none out
Pitch 1: high fly out to center

Top 7th, nobody on, none out
Pitch 1: fastball up fouled straight back, strike 1
Pitch 2: 74 mph curve, called strike 2
Pitch 3: splitter; strikeout swinging

Top 8th, Loretta on 1st, Lawrence on 3rd, Randolph pitching
Pitch 1: breaking ball low and away, ball 1
Pitch 2: 84 mph upbreaking ball low and away, ball 2
Pitch 3: 92 mph fastball up, ball 3
Pitch 4: 91 mph fastball up fouled back, strike 1
Pitch 5: 90 mph fastball up; walk

It’s hard to draw much from one game, but the Pads appeared to play with a lot of confidence Wednesday night. Sometimes that can become contagious.

Other observations from the game:

• Ugly sight: Gary Bennett swinging 3-0 against Schilling with a runner on first and one out in the sixth. Padres were up 4-2 at the time.
• Eighth inning, one on, one out: Brian Lawrence bunts with Bennett on first. Oscar Villareal pounces on it, whirls, and fires to Alex Cintron, who ducks away from the ball. Everyone is safe. Back in the fourth, Lawrence had dropped down a bunt that Schilling fielded. The Diamondbacks nailed the lead runner (Bennett), but he came in very hard on Cintron, and it was clear that the diminutive infielder wanted no part of the Padre catcher in the eighth.
• Eighth inning, two on, one out: Very next batter is Sean Burroughs. At this point, Burroughs has four hits under his belt and ducks on the pond. Naturally he sacrifices to move the runners up. Bennett swings 3-0, and Burroughs bunts with a runner in scoring position? I know the Pads won big, and it may seem like nitpicking, but WTF?
• Mark Kotsay had a nice hustle double to lead off the sixth. Line drive to right-center. Raul Mondesi assumed Kotsay wouldn’t test his arm and didn’t come up throwing. Kotsay ran, Mondesi still managed to make a terrific throw. Kotsay slid past the bag and avoided Cintron’s tag. Unfortunately, Kotsay slid well past the bag and his hand actually came off. Fortunately, Cintron was busy showing second base umpire Paul Schrieber that he had the ball rather than keeping the ball on Kotsay.
• After a shaky start, Lawrence finished strong and worked into the eighth. He wasn’t brilliant, but he was pretty darned good.
• Phil Nevin’s grand slam in the eighth was fun. Hit it to dead center against Steven Randolph. After falling behind in the count 0-2, Nevin took a ball, then fouled three off, then took another ball, then hammered a pitch at his knees and drove it just above the yellow line in deepest center field.
• Giles’ willingness to dive headlong into the stands in pursuit of a foul ball with an eight-run lead in the ninth inning may have been endearing, but I’d just as soon never see him do that again. Unless it’s a playoff game.

Padres off today. Three in Houston, then back home with Giles, Trevor Hoffman, and Khalil Greene. Yeah, baby! Our team may be 28 games under .500, but now is a great time to be a Padre fan. And for those of you waiting, there’s still plenty of room on the bandwagon. Next year is gonna be real fun…

Holy superstars, Batman, Brian Giles is a Padre. I’m so excited I’m even using my crappy old Windows 98 laptop to write this. Where to begin? I’ll just start spewing random thoughts as they occur to me, so if this entry is more incoherent than most (how can you tell?), I trust you’ll understand.

The Padres just acquired BRIAN FREAKIN’ GILES! And they didn’t have to absorb any of Jason Kendall’s contract. Of course, they also don’t get Kendall’s services, but that’s another story.

So, Giles joins the club Wednesday night and replaces Rondell White (traded to the Royals for minor leaguers) in left field. Word is he’ll hit third, ahead of Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko. Put Sean Burroughs and Mark Loretta or Mark Kotsay in front of that group and you’ve got the makings of a pretty nice lineup.

With Giles now in the fold, you have to figure that the (likely) more expensive Vlad Guerrero and Gary Sheffield will not be on the shopping list this winter. Which means the Pads probably will concentrate on improving behind the plate, at shortstop, and in the rotation.

A lot of names are being tossed around on each of those fronts: Brad Ausmus, Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez, Benito Santiago, Kaz Matsui, Miguel Tejada, Bartolo Colon, Greg Maddux, Kevin Millwood, Andy Pettitte, Javy Vazquez to name a few. Hard to say what will end up happening, but the Padres definitely will be players. The hope here is that Kevin Towers and company won’t spend the big bucks on Tejada but will be able to sign Maddux to an incentive-based deal.

Ben Howard, up to replace the departed Ollie Perez. First three pitches miss badly. He’s got to be nervous. Walk to Matt Kata on five pitches. So far, he’s doing a pretty good impression of Perez.

Okay, how about the guys the Padres gave up to get Giles? Well, Perez obviously is a talented kid. But he’s very raw. He’s about where Matt Clement was in terms of development when the Pads dealt him for Kotsay. And Pirates fans are in for a lot of frustration while Perez learns to harness his stuff.

If someone can get him to repeat his delivery with consistency and be more efficient with his pitches, the Bucs could have a real good one on their hands. But it’s not going to happen right away. Advice to Pirates fans: Be patient with Perez, try not to get too down on him when he struggles. And hope he gets some good coaching.

Howard gets into Luis Gonzalez’ kitchen. Weak fly to center on a 94-MPH fastball.

Raul Mondesi drills a two-run homer just inside the left-field foul pole. Howard hung it. Breaking ball, right down the middle of the plate. Yep, he looks a lot like Perez so far.

Back to the departed. Jason Bay also goes to Pittsburgh. Bay is a fine young outfielder who probably wasn’t going to get a chance to play every day in San Diego. He came over from the Mets last year in a deal for reliever Steve Reed. He can play all three outfield positions, and does everything pretty well but nothing spectacular. Someone at Baseball Primer pointed out that his numbers this year at Triple-A look similar to those posted by Giles at that level in 1995 at the same age. Interesting, but I don’t think Bay has that kind of power. Then again, who expected Giles to consistently hit 35+ homers?

Here are their respective minor-league numbers through last year:

        AB   BA  OBP  SLG  BB  SO
Bay   1025 .300 .388 .466 139 212
Giles 2255 .306 .396 .429 333 287

Those don’t include the good numbers Bay is putting up this season. Interestingly, he’s actually shown better power in the minors than Giles ever did. Does this mean Bay will follow in Giles’ footsteps? Doubtful. More likely it means that Giles had a freakish growth curve. I’d venture to guess that not many guys with a career .123 ISO in the minors at age 25 go on to be big-time power hitters.

Long story, short: Bay is a good player who deserves a chance. And he’ll probably be a solid replacement for Reggie Sanders next year.

The third player hasn’t been named yet but is rumored to be lefty Cory Stewart. He’s an intriguing kid putting up some big strikeout numbers at Mobile this season. As I noted back in January, Stewart could be a middle- to back-end starter, he could be a situational reliever.

All things considered, this actually isn’t a terrible trade from the Pirates’ standpoint. They needed to get rid of Giles’ contract, and they got one potential impact player (Perez), along with two other kids who at least have a chance to become big-league regulars.

Rick Sutcliffe is talking about Howard’s mechanics and the fact that he keeps making the same mistakes. He’ll probably hammer on that point for as long as Howard is in there tonight. Where’s Mark Grant when you need him?

How about White. What does an All-Star outfielder fetch these days? Two very marginal prospects. Southpaw Chris Tierney, a seventh-round pick in 2001, gets a grade of C in this year’s edition of John Sickels’ book. He’s ranked 26th among Royals’ prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook. Doesn’t throw hard but gets the ball over the plate. Sounds a little like Justin Germano. Probably several years away, and who knows what kind of upside he has.

Brian Sanches, a right-hander out of Lamar University, was taken in the the second round of the 2001 draft. Sickels gives him a grade of C minus, which is as low as he goes. Sanches doesn’t merit a mention in BAPH. Probably just roster fill but you never know.

Mondesi hammers another one, this time off the left field wall. Gary Matthews Jr. plays it brilliantly and almost nails Mondesi at second. Sutcliffe blows a lot of smoke, but he’s dead on here: the Pads should bring back Matthews next year as a reserve outfielder. (Matthews later would hit a mammoth two-run shot to right-center.)

Howard allows a run-scoring wild pitch in the third, and he nearly launches another. Steve Finley pops up to Mark Loretta to end the inning.

Back to Giles. Have the Padres ever acquired a guy this good in his prime? Gary Sheffield turned out to be a stud, but he was an unknown quantity back in the day. Maybe Fred McGriff. Here’s how they compare in full seasons prior to acquisition by the Pads (stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com):

          Yr1       Yr2       Yr3       Yr4
        Age OPS+  Age OPS+  Age OPS+  Age OPS+
Giles    28 157    29 158    30 153    31 173
McGriff  23 130    24 157    25 161    26 157

McGriff was younger, but Giles was better. It’s easy to forget what a terrific player McGriff was. Yikes, looking at his career numbers, he’s a little closer to the Hall of Fame than I’d have guessed.

Another inning, another run. Robby Hammock, two-out solo shot to left-center. Not a good pitch from Howard with Elmer Dessens (ironically, the man who broke Bay’s wrist back in May) on deck.

Great at-bat by Burroughs. Works the count full, then pokes a single between third and short.

Now we can start playing with potential lineups for 2004:

1. Burroughs 3b
2. Loretta 2b/Kotsay cf
3. Giles lf
4. Nevin 1b
5. Klesko rf
6. Kotsay cf/Loretta 2b
7. catcher
8. Greene ss

And the rotation:

1. Eaton
2. Peavy
3. Lawrence
4. Jarvis
5. Howard/Tankersley

Bench:

C: who knows
INF: Hansen, Merloni (?), Vazquez
OF: Buchanan, Matthews (?)

Bullpen:

Hoffman, Beck (?), Witasick, Hackman, Walker (?), Linebrink (?)

If everyone can stay reasonably healthy, and depending on who Towers goes out and gets, this could be a pretty surprising team next year.

More coverage of the trades:

• Pirates Trade Giles to Padres; San Diego Sends White to Royals (iWon)
• Padres acquire Giles, but not Kendall (ESPN)
• Padres complete deal to bring Giles home (BA)
• After getting Giles, Padres ship White to Royals (BA)

And an interesting baseball site having nothing to do with all this:

• Baseball Graphs

The Pads ended up winning the game last night. Good to see the club scrap and come back from a 4-0 deficit. Howard wasn’t great but he showed signs and he did keep his team in the game. Great work from the bullpen. Jay Witasick and Rod Beck is a nice way to finish. And Trevor Hoffman pitched a scoreless inning for the Storm. Six pitches, six strikes. This should be an interesting September in San Diego…

Real quick today. First off, one of the band of Jeffs pointed out to me that Trevor Hoffman will rejoin the Padres against the Diamondbacks in San Diego. Thanks for the correction, dude.

I didn’t see last night’s game, just heard a little of it in the car. I can only guess how Jake Peavy looked; man, that was a horrible line. So now is a good time for this question: When do the Padres shut down Peavy? He’s 22 years old and he’s worked 159 innings. Where do you put his ceiling: 170 innings? 180? That gives him somewhere between two and four more starts. I’ll miss watching him pitch, and you know he won’t want to miss any turns, but it will be best for the future of this organization if someone takes the ball from him in a couple of weeks and doesn’t give it back to him till next spring.

Thoughts on Peavy? Thoughts on anything else? Drop me a line. I’ll talk to ya soon…

Lots to cover, so let’s jump right in.

Ugly game Sunday against the Expos. I don’t know if a catcher can have much of a worse inning than Miguel Ojeda had in the fifth inning. Passed ball, two stolen bases, two errors. The low point came with Jamey Carroll on second and Vlad Guerrero at the plate. Kevin Jarvis gets Guerrero to chase a high fastball for strike three. Ojeda starts trotting toward the dugout and flips the ball toward the mound. Carroll takes third. That’s not good.

Second Basemen

Josh Barfield was ranked #1 by BA’s Josh Boyd in his “Scouting Department” series (up from last year’s #5). Here’s what Boyd had to say about him:

Barfield ranked behind fellow Padres second base prospect Jake Gautreau at the end of last season, but Barfield wasn’t far off. Barfield made major progress this year in Lake Elsinore, while Gautreau has regressed. Younger than Hairston by nearly three years and Chase Utley (who would have ranked No. 2 if he weren’t in Philadelphia) by four years to the day, Barfield has developed more power this season, as evidenced by his 39 doubles and 12 home runs. He has tremendous bat speed and can drive the ball to right-center field with authority. Barfield needs to tighten his strike zone judgment. He’s not a pure second baseman either, leading some scouts to project him as a left fielder. He didn’t inherit his father’s outstanding arm strength.

The bat speed and ability to drive the ball to the opposite field are what have impressed me most when I’ve seen him play. I’m hesitant to make comparisons (although I’ll be doing just that after the season in a more detailed piece of research looking at Barfield’s career path to this point), but the names that come to my mind when I see this kid swing a bat are pretty big ones.

Jake Gautreau came in at #13 (down from #2). Boyd’s thoughts:

Gautreau hasn’t come close to his potential since signing as a first-rounder out of Tulane in 2001. In college he earned the nickname “Jake the Rake” by hitting .388 as a third baseman to lead Conference USA as a junior. A move to second base hasn’t produced the desired results: a lefthanded version of Jeff Kent. Much of his struggles can be attributed to ongoing bouts with colitis, which causes him to lose weight and saps his power and ability to drive the ball. The Padres will have to decide what do with Gautreau soon, though, as Barfield will be ready for a shot at Double-A next year. Gautreau’s increasing number of strikeouts won’t help his case.

I haven’t seen Gautreau play this year, but from his numbers, it’s clear that he’s not the hitter he was at Elsinore. How much of that can be blamed on colitis and other injuries I cannot say. I’ve been told by people with first-hand knowledge of the disease that colitis can be very difficult to deal with even for non-athletes. Here’s hoping Gautreau can win his battle with colitis and get on with his career and his life.

Trevor Hoffman

Hoffman made his 2003 season debut Saturday night at Elsinore. I was supposed to be at that game but due to a gig, I had to miss it. At any rate, he worked a scoreless seventh, allowing one hit (leadoff single to Angel prospect Casey Kotchman, who had four hits in the game) and striking out a batter (David Gates). Other items of note from that game: Rob Ramsay got the start and worked 5 2/3 innings, and Greg Sain was behind the plate. As for Hoffman, he’s scheduled to pitch again Tuesday night at Rancho Cucamonga. He’s slated to rejoin the Pads September 2 in Arizona. More coverage:

• Hoffman sharp at Elsinore (NC Times)
• Hoffman on target at Class A (U-T)

Arizona Fall League

Baseball America has its AFL preview out now.

Padre reps will be playing for the Peoria Saguaros this year and are as follows:

• Cliff Bartosh, LHP
• Ben Howard, RHP
• Khalil Greene, SS
• Rico Washington, 3B (Wed. & Thu. only)
• Jason Bay, OF

Speaking of Greene, he’s starting to draw some walks. Still only 17 in 281 at-bats at Portland, but at least he’s improving in that area.

Bobby Bonds

Bobby Bonds (B-R) passed away (ESPN) after an ongoing battle with cancer. Best known to the current generation as Barry’s dad, Bobby was a fine player in his own right. I don’t remember much about his playing days (I started following baseball around 1977 or so, but mainly the National League; Bonds didn’t return to the NL until 1980, and his final two seasons were pretty forgettable), but his most similar batter in history is Ron Gant, which is mighty fine company. Only in relation to his son’s achievements do Bobby Bonds’ achievements lose some of their luster. Then again, the same can be said of just about everyone not named Babe Ruth.

One thing I always hear people mention when talking about Bobby Bonds is the 189 strikeouts he amassed in 1970 as a member of the San Francisco Giants. What they often forget to note is that he also collected 200 hits that year. Bonds finished the season at .302/.375/.504, with 26 homers and 48 stolen bases. His OPS+ (OBP + SLG relative to league, park adjusted) was 135 that year. Oh, and he was just 24 years old. Bonds finished his career with an OPS+ of 130. To give some context, coming into 2003, Moises Alou was ranked 30th among active players (at least 3000 plate appearances) with a 129 OPS+. In other words, Bonds was no slouch.

I’m not sure why I’ve devoted this much space to a guy whose career I pretty much missed. Maybe it’s because, despite the fact that he absolutely destroys the Padres, I’m a big Barry Bonds fan. The man has taken the game to ridiculously high levels and it’s a joy to watch (although I don’t always feel that way at the time). I also like the fact that the greatest baseball player of my generation is taking time off in the middle of a pennant chase to mourn the loss of his father. Don’t get me wrong, winning is important and all. But there are still things Bonds and his teammates can do to make that happen; there is nothing anyone can do to make his dad come back.

Other News

• Burroughs is leading man (U-T). I still like the idea of him in the #5 slot (especially given how well he’s done there), but this isn’t bad either. Wade Boggs did okay as a leadoff hitter with a line drive stroke, a good batting eye, and average speed. I give Bruce Bochy and company credit for at least thinking of Burroughs as a potential leadoff hitter.
• Peavy’s effort more impressive considering wife’s illness (U-T). The more I learn about this kid, the more I like. I hope all is well in the Peavy household.
• Padres win pitching duel on ball call (U-T). Was that a dominant performance by Adam Eaton or what? I caught parts of the game at my gig, and I still can’t believe what he did to Vlad Guerrero. That was some nasty stuff he sent up there.
• San Diego Padres Stats Cool time saver: view all Padre minor league stats at once (courtesy of BA)

Okay, that’s all the time I have. I’ll try to sneak in a second entry later this week. Until then…