Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

A rare weekend appearance from yours truly. Just wanted to let y’all know I’ve finally posted more pix of Petco Park. Check ‘em out at www.ducksnorts.com/stadium; note the light standards. It’s starting to look like a ballpark.

One of the things I’m going to miss about working downtown is being able to walk down to the stadium at lunch. At the risk of sounding corny, baseball is the closest thing I have to religion at the moment, and hanging out at the park gives me a great feeling of comfort.

Spring Training Update

Bullet points today.

• Trevor Hoffman is back in San Diego to have his shoulder examined again. It’s not looking good.
• Dennis Tankersley is working with Hoffman and Rick Sutcliffe to make his delivery smoother. Tankersley, who will begin the year at Triple-A Portland, is often cited as an injury risk because of his violent pitching motion.
• Jaret Wright and Xavier Nady are making good impressions early in camp.
• Rob Ramsay, vying for a job at Portland, continues to be a source of inspiration. Ramsay resumed workouts yesterday, two days after undergoing another round of chemotherapy.

That’s all for now. Over the next few weeks, as I get settled into my new job, postings may continue to be more sporadic. Bear with me; we’ll be back on a more regular schedule before too long.

Later…

Excuses, Excuses

It’s nice to be appreciated. Some of you have asked about the lack of recent updates, and here’s the deal. I’ve been spending a lot of time and energy the past few months looking for a new job. This has forced me to cut back on "leisure activities" more than I’d have liked.

But I’m happy to report that I’ve found a job, which I’ll be starting this coming Monday. I’ll be building and editing content for web sites. Pretty cool, huh? Anyway, things should settle down here shortly and I’ll be able to return to a more regular schedule. Meantime, thanks for your patience.

A Look Back

Caught a little of the Channel 4 rebroadcast of the July 22 game against the Dodgers. A few observations:

• Brian Lawrence’s pitches were really moving. He also had a little more life on his fastball than I’d remembered.
• A guy like Lawrence, who is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball, absolutely cannot survive with an infield of Ryan Klesko, Julius Matos, Deivi Cruz, and Phil Nevin. Thankfully, this year he won’t have to.
• Sticking Matos, Cruz, and Wil Nieves in the same lineup is a good way to avoid scoring runs.
• I’m going to miss Ron Gant. He brought a lot to this ballclub last year.
• I’m looking forward to seeing Dave Hansen play for the Pads. The guy can flat rake.

Spring Training Update

After the game, I watched the nightly spring training report on Channel 4. Not a whole lot to report at this early date, but here are a few tidbits:

• Rob Ramsay is participating in workouts but is still undergoing chemotherapy every six weeks. It’s hard to imagine his chances of contributing much on the field are real good, but his perseverance is admirable. I’m rooting for the guy.
• Ramon Vazquez isn’t taking anything for granted, in terms of where or how often he’ll play. He’s prepared to play any of the infield positions. Vazquez’ "team first" attitude is good to hear, but he’s the starting shortstop.
• Homer Bush, Jose Flores, Keith Lockhart, and Chris Sexton are battling for the backup infield spot(s). Nobody has the advantage going in; I believe Flores still has options.
• The catching situation is wide open. Newcomer Michael Rivera, who has the highest offensive upside of the hopefuls, acknowledged that he needs to work on his throwing.
• Clay Condrey is ready to work as a starter or reliever. He’s just happy to be here. Sounds cliché, but remember that this is a kid who was signed out of a tryout camp. He is another, like Brian Tollberg a few years back, who has had a taste and is hungry for more.

And here are a few more nuggets for you:

• Jarvis will have to show Towers he can still start (U-T). Kevin Jarvis is one of many contestants for the #5 spot in this year’s rotation; unlike most of the others, he’s also a bullpen option.
• Nevin plans to muffle himself, not his ‘hogs’ (U-T). Davey Lopes is working with Nevin on his outfield defense. Bruce Bochy continues to sing the praises of Donaldo "Don’t Call Me Enzo" Mendez. Minor league outfielder Vince Faison reportedly lost 20 pounds in offseason workouts and is now running the way he did when he was drafted in 1999.
• He may not be flashy, but sinkerballer Lawrence is Padres’ No. 1 pitcher (NC Times). A closer look at the new Andy Ashby.

That’s all for now. Keep your eye on the ball…

Spring Training Update

Notes: Randy Smith rejoins Padres (Padres.com). Also thoughts on the death of Orioles’ prospect Steve Bechler; updates on Trevor Hoffman, Gary Bennett, and Rob Ramsay; the signing of former Yankee left-hander Randy Keisler; and Ryan Klesko’s pitch to sign beleaguered southpaw John Rocker.

Randy Keisler

For more on Keisler, we turn to the 2001 Baseball America Prospect Handbook and John Sickels’ 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook.

From BA (ranked #6 among Yankee prospects):

Keisler recovered from Tommy John surgery in college to reach New York barely two years after he was drafted… Keisler has three major league pitches. He throws his fastball from 88-92 mph, his curveball is slightly above-average and he has picked up a nice changeup… He must improve the command of his fastball.

And from Sickels (Grade B):

The Yankees drafted LSU product Randy Keisler in the second round in 1998… Keisler works with a 90-92 MPH fastball, a very solid curve and a nasty changeup. He throws strikes and posted a good set of ratios at Triple-A Columbus… I don’t see anything in his record or scouting reports to indicate the he won’t succeed, and the Yankees have the luxury of not having to rush him. For most teams, he would be a given in the big league rotation next year. Keisler could be a Denny Neagle type if all goes well.

Keisler missed all of 2002 due to injury and is now 27 years old, so who knows how much of that potential remains. Still, not a bad low-risk move. At worst, he’ll help solidify the staff at Portland and be available if a short-term fix is needed in San Diego. At best, he could turn into a useful commodity.

Brian Tollberg

Talk about your forgotten players. Tollberg targets May for return to mound (NC Times). He, Kevin Jarvis, and Francisco Cordova are all looking good in the early going.

Steve Dalkowski

Speaking of lefties, Futility Infielder’s Jay Jaffe takes a look at one of my favorite historical baseball figures. Check it out.

Renewed my Storm mini-plans yesterday. Life is good. I’m looking forward to seeing the latest crop of young pitchers in the system: Justin Germano, Jon Huber, Javier Martinez, Tom Lipari, Nobuaki Yoshida. Should be fun.

Portland Beavers

Jonathan over at PDX Beavers is doing an in-depth preview of the 2003 Portland Beavers season:

• An Early Look Ahead to the 2003 Portland Beavers – The Position Player Breakdown
• An Early Look Ahead to the 2003 Portland Beavers – The Pitching Breakdown

If you ever want information on the Beavers, this site is the place to find it. Stop on by, and tell ‘em I say hey.

Trevor Hoffman Update

Trevor Hoffman’s immediate future remains uncertain (Padres.com). The obsession with finding a "replacement" closer if Hoffy can’t go is a little disturbing. Personally, I don’t have a problem with seeing some combination of Jay Witasick, Kevin Walker, Jaret Wright, and Brandon Villafuerte. They could probably even get some kind of marketing tie-in with Volkswagen.

That’s all for now. More as it happens…

I promised baseball today, and that’s what I’ll deliver. First off, here are a couple articles worth reading:

• An Interview with Ken Burns (Alex Belth’s Bronx Banter)
• Defense Independent Pitching Statistics for 2002 (Futility Infielder)

These are gems. I hate to admit it, but I haven’t seen Burns’ "Baseball" (although I’ve seen some of his "Jazz"). He’s obviously quite passionate about the game. His observation that the quality of pitching has improved throughout history seems pretty dead-on to me, despite what you may hear from contraction apologists.

The DIPS stuff is pretty dense. I don’t pretend to understand it all myself, but DIPS ERA (dERA) is said to be a better predictor of the next year’s ERA than is actual ERA. With that in mind, here is how current Padres fared last season:

               dERA   ERA dERA-ERA
Trevor Hoffman 2.57  2.73  -0.16
Jay Witasick   3.32  2.37   0.95
Clay Condrey   3.65  1.69   1.96
B. Villafuerte 3.68  1.41   2.27
Brian Lawrence 3.69  3.69   0.00
Jake Peavy     3.86  4.52  -0.66
Eric Cyr       4.59 10.50  -5.91
Jesse Orosco   4.62  3.00   1.62
Kevin Jarvis   4.66  4.37   0.29
Oliver Perez   4.83  3.50   1.33
Kevin Walker   4.96  5.62  -0.66
Mike Bynum     5.19  5.27  -0.08
Brian Tollberg 5.29  6.13  -0.84
Charles Nagy   5.41  8.88  -3.47
Adam Eaton     5.54  5.40   0.14
Jaret Wright   6.36 15.71  -9.35
D. Tankersley  6.78  8.06  -1.28
Ben Howard     9.26  9.28  -0.02

I’ve also listed actual ERA, so you can get an idea of who may have been pitching over their heads last year and who might be in for better things in 2003. There are some seriously small samples here, but Peavy’s dERA is encouraging. Negative numbers in that far right column are a good thing.

And speaking of Padres, now is the time when folks start asking me who I think are good sleepers this year. Without much in the way of explanation or justification, the guys I’m really watching in 2003 are Phil Nevin, Sean Burroughs, Mark Kotsay, Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton, and Kevin Walker. The ones I’m concerned about are Oliver Perez, Trevor Hoffman, and the entire catching corps.

If I had to give you the name of one Padre who I expect to surprise a lot of people this year, it’d be Eaton. He looked real sharp at the end of last season, and I have a good feeling about him. Bear in mind, that’s all it is: a feeling.

Picked up Tony Blengino’s "Future Stars" book last week. His work often gets overlooked, but he does a good job of uncovering guys who are in the deep minors before everyone else "discovers" them. Here are his Top 10 Padre prospects for 2003:

1. Mark Phillips
2. Khalil Greene
3. Mike Bynum
4. Jake Gautreau
5. Josh Barfield
6. Xavier Nady
7. Justin Germano
8. Dennis Tankersley
9. Pedro De los Santos
10. Tagg Bozied

Not many people put Phillips ahead of Greene. It’s a bold move, and not as outrageous as some might think. Bynum is too high for my taste; I still see him ending up in somebody’s bullpen. I like Germano a lot, but his upside isn’t what Tankersley’s is. As for De los Santos, Blengino presumably went to press before the truth was discovered. Even before the age adjustment, that was too high for a guy with basically one skill.

Take this as you would any other prospect list. It’s one man’s opinion. Blengino’s is pretty informed, though; he’s worth reading.

Well, I was going to try to end gracefully, but I’m too tired to think. Consider this installment finished.

Due to various minor crises, today’s entry is a bit late and will be brief.

First, thanks to Fanstop folks for pointing out the following articles:

• Loretta eager for new opportunity (Padres.com)
• Breaking Out (Baseball Prospectus). The discussion of Jake Peavy is spot-on. If he works more than 170 innings this year or throws more than 115 pitches in a single game, the noise you hear will be me screaming. There are other talented young players in the system, but when you get down to it, Peavy and Sean Burroughs are the future of the Padres.

And speaking of prospects, check out Aaron Gleeman’s Top 50 prospects over at Baseball Primer. I don’t agree with all of his selections (Scott Kazmir seems a shade premature to me, while Kevin Youkilis’ numbers are eerily close to those of Bill Mueller at a similar stage of development–not that there’s anything wrong with that), but Aaron does a thorough job of explaining what he looks for in a prospect and supporting his choices. This is a solid piece of work.

Putting together a list like Aaron has is not an easy task. It involves sifting through an enormous amount of information and then striking a reasonable balance between upside and proximity to the big leagues. Everyone has their own comfort level along that particular continuum. This is a good thing, as otherwise there wouldn’t be anything to talk about when such lists are published. So go check out his article, and let him know what you think.

Before I go, just a reminder to drop me a line using the new mail form. Just click "E-mail" at the bottom of this entry and let ‘er rip. Tell me about your favorite player, musician, beer, whatever. Got an idea for a blog entry? Have something you’ve written that you’d like to see on Ducksnorts? Bring it on. Predictions for Sean Burroughs’ 2003 performance? Talk to me; I’ll accept submissions till Opening Day.

Dog ate my blog yesterday. Here it is, a day late. For best results, pretend you’re reading this on Monday.

The big day finally arrived here in San Diego yesterday. Hundreds of thousands were in town this weekend as the event came upon us, yet oddly enough only a few hundred actually showed up.

Football? I don’t think so. I’m talking about the USD/Cal Poly SLO baseball game, of course. The home Toreros batted around in the bottom of the first to jump out to a 5-0 lead and never looked back. Cal Poly made some noise in the middle innings, but ultimately they were no match for USD, which hung on for an 18-6 victory. Highlights included two homers from sophomore third baseman Freddy Sandoval and a bizarrely timed fly over by some military jets. The bottom of the sixth? During an at-bat? No matter, it was a nice salute to the Toreros. The few fans in attendance appreciated it.

Oh yeah, and the Raiders got spanked. Almost makes me wish I’d bothered to watch the game.

In other news, somebody likes Mark Phillips even more than I do. In his Top 100 Prospects of 2003, David Cameron puts Phillips at #41, with Khalil Greene checking in at #85. First off, he’s vastly underrating Greene. But you know what, his bold pick of Phillips might not look so bad in a few years.

Seems everybody loves the new downtown ballpark’s moniker: Animal rights group opposes naming of San Diego stadium (USA Today).

Finally, thanks to all for taking a whack at the mail form thang. I can see that it’s much more popular than the good ol’ mailto link. I’ll be implementing the form on a more wide scale basis with the next site update, probably early next month. I’ll also be adding some cool sites to the Hot Links section, so if you’ve sent me a URL within the past several weeks, hang in there; they’ll be up in a few.

As always, thanks for stopping by. Play ball…