One of my Legion of Jeffs™ gave me the heads-up on this great site: VincentsBallparkPhotos.com. This really is an awesome collection of Petco Park photos and is well worth the trip.

And now, as promised, we return to David Marshall’s consideration of Tony Gwynn as a Hall of Fame candidate as measured by Bill James’ Keltner List. This is the third and final installment in David’s series. If you haven’t already done so, before proceeding you may wish to review the first two parts:

• Part 1
• Part 2

  by David Marshall (aka fracas)
  fraxinel@aol.com

11. How many MVP-type seasons did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Bill James defines a season of 30 to 40 Win Shares as an MVP-type season; Gwynn’s top seasons were 39, 35 and 30 Win Shares. Gwynn never won an MVP award. His highest finish in the voting was third place behind Ryne Sandberg and Keith Hernandez in 1984. He never again finished in the top 5, although he tied for the Win Shares lead in 1997 with Mike Piazza. Overall, Gwynn had 1.93 MVP "award shares."

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did the player have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?

Bill James defines 20 to 30 Win Shares as an All-Star-type season. Tony Gwynn earned at least 20 Win Shares 10 times (including a pro-rated 24 for the 1994 season). Gwynn was selected for fifteen All-Star games, and played in thirteen contests. He was selected in every full season of his career except 1988, when he had a thoroughly awful first half before finding his stroke and raising his average from .246 on July 1 to finish at .313, the lowest average to win a batting title in National League history. Players who appeared in 13-15 All-Star games are all Hall of Famers, if eligible.

13. If this man were the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

This is exactly what happened in 1984, of course, but the loose definitions of "likely" and "could" cloud the issue. The Padres did better when Gwynn wasn’t their best player, but what team doesn’t do better with a player having a better year than their HOF candidate?

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

As many have acknowledged, this is a tough question in modern baseball. Gwynn wasn’t responsible for, but was the first player to take advantage of, the "0-fer" rule, which states that a player falling short of the required plate appearances for a batting (or similar) title is allowed to add the necessary number of hitless at bats and recompute their average. Gwynn had 498 PAs in 1996; adding 0-for-4 to his 159-for-451 yielded a .349 average, still the best in the league. In terms of equipment, Gwynn may have been the first to wear sunglasses continuously throughout day games, presumably so his eyes wouldn’t have to adjust every half inning, but I wouldn’t call this significant. If Gwynn caused any change in the game, it was his pioneering use of videotape to analyze his own swing, starting with his home VCR in 1983. A decade later he spent nearly $100,000 putting a state of the art taping facility in the Padres’ clubhouse. Gwynn studied videotape the way Wade Boggs ate chicken.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Yes. The closest thing to a black mark on Gwynn’s record was a clubhouse fight that arose out of Jack Clark’s accusation that Gwynn was more concerned with his own stats than the team’s fortunes. On the other side of the ledger, Gwynn won the Branch Rickey award (created in 1991 by the Rotary Club of Denver, Colorado to honor an active in major leaguer who has demonstrated high standards and social concern through contributions to the community) in 1995 and the Roberto Clemente Man of the Year Award (given to the major leaguer who balances outstanding skills on the baseball field with civic responsibility) in 1999.

Conclusion

In The Politics of Glory, Bill James makes this passing mention of Tony Gwynn: "The principle is that specialists are always overrated, while players who do many things well are always underrated. If the public understands that a player does one thing exceptionally well – Tony Gwynn hits lots of singles – they can build on that, and then he’ll get credit for everything else he does well, even if there isn’t a tremendous lot of it." James has a point that being exceptional at one thing can obscure mediocrity in other areas, but I think he’s picked the wrong player to illustrate it here (he also uses a more appropriate choice, Cecil Fielder). I think Gwynn illustrates the related point that exceptional performance in one area can also obscure being above average in nearly everything else. I think this is the case with Gwynn.

Gwynn did more than hit a lot of singles; he’s 18th on the all-time doubles list, despite playing in a park not conducive to doubles. His 135 lifetime homeruns don’t seem to impress anybody (go figure), but Gwynn maintained a slugging percentage 60 points better than his peers over the course of 10,000 PAs. Nothing to sneeze at there. He didn’t walk as much as stat-heads would like, but still managed an OBP 58 points better than the league. He had above average speed (319 stolen bases at a 72% rate, second in the league in triples three times), and was an above average defender (five Gold Gloves, 120 fielding runs above average per baseballprospectus.com, fielding percentage and range factors both better than his league averages).

So Gwynn qualifies for the Hall of Fame not just with his 3154 hits and .338 lifetime batting average, but with longevity, above average power, on-base skills, speed, and defense.

Well, folks, there you have it. I believe that David has summed up Gwynn’s case pretty well. As David stated at the beginning of this series, Gwynn’s "enshrinement is considered a foregone conclusion." But in looking at his credentials with a critical eye, we are able to see exactly why his achievements will land him a spot in Cooperstown.

Finally, I’d like to take a moment to thank David for sharing his insights with us. Nicely done, my man.

If you have anything you’d like to discuss with David about his article, please drop him a line at the e-mail address above; if you’d like to let me know what you think of having someone else come in and talk for a bit, digame amigo. I’m always looking for ways to improve Ducksnorts; the best way I know to do that is by finding out what you want to read.

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