Konichiwa, Akinori-san

by Geoff Young on Dec 10, 2003

Now that the signing of right-hander Akinori Ohtsuka appears to be imminent, it’s probably a good time to take a closer look at the soon-to-be-former Chunichi Dragon. I don’t know how well stats compiled on the other side of the Pacific translate into MLB equivalents, but bearing in mind that the man makes the stats and not vice versa, let’s see how Ohtsuka stacks up against the most recent Japanese reliever to come to North America, Kazuhiro Sasaki:

           IP   H HR  BB  SO  ERA
Ohtsuka 350.2 237 26 117 474 2.39
Sasaki  599.0 373 53 225 828 2.31

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  SO/9 SO/BB
 6.08 0.67 3.00 12.17  4.05
 5.60 0.80 3.38 12.44  3.68

Both were very tough to hit, both have ridiculous strikeout numbers. Sasaki had more years and innings under his belt when he made the move. Again, statistics don’t tell the whole story, but it’s hard not to get a little excited about a guy who compares so favorably to a quality reliever such as Sasaki. If Ohtsuka can make the transition anywhere near as well, the Padres will have themselves one heckuva reliver (and a very nice bullpen).

I can’t find a whole lot on Ohtsuka in terms of scouting reports. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see. Meantime, Japanese Baseball observer Jim Albright gives his opinion on the reliever and other actual or possible transplants.

And over at Primer, Dan Symborski’s ZiPS projects the following line out of Ohtsuka: 44 IP, 40 H, 7 HR, 9 BB, 44 SO, 3.89 ERA. Not bad, but I think we’re all hoping for better than that.

Speaking of ZiPS, it’s a bit premature but what the heck. Here’s what the current Padre team is looking like right now:

Lineup

  1. Burroughs 3b, .303/.368/.422
  2. Loretta 2b, .305/.369/.422
  3. Giles cf, .281/.418/.527
  4. Nevin 1b, .283/.358/.490
  5. Klesko lf, .271/.375/.499
  6. Nady rf, .272/.337/.421
  7. Hernandez c, .265/.335/.423
  8. Greene ss, .269/.322/.405

If Petco plays like I think it will, that projection for Klesko is low. Not sure Greene will be able to crack a 700 OPS as a rookie, either. If he comes close to his ZiPS, I’ll be pretty darned happy. Also, there’s a good chance that one of these guys will end up in center, moving Giles back to left and Nady to the bench, Triple-A, or another team:

  • Mike Cameron, .250/.350/.436
  • Kenny Lofton, .258/.335/.407

The Boss is said to be pursuing Lofton. Neither of these guys was offered arbitration, so no draft picks will be forfeited if they’re signed. If Lofton comes to San Diego, he’ll lead off and move Burroughs to the #6 or #7 spot. If it’s Cameron, the guess here is that he’ll move into Nady’s place in the order. Cameron is younger and plays better defense, but he’s also going to be more expensive.

Bench

  • Ojeda c, .232/.327/.359
  • Hansen inf, .238/.353/.338
  • Vazquez inf, .276/.363/.362
  • Buchanan of, .261/.336/.436
  • Long of, .258/.316/.394

I don’t know how warm the Long and Jarvis for Roger Cedeno rumors are these days, but that possibility has been mentioned on more than one occasion this winter, so I’ll include Cedeno’s projection here as well as that of former Houston farmhand (and college teammate of Khalil Greene and Michael Johnson) Henri Stanley:

  • Cedeno, .273/.330/.373
  • Stanley, .286/.373/.438

Rotation

  1. Lawrence, 3.97 ERA, 5.9 SO/9
  2. Eaton, 4.14, 7.9
  3. Peavy, 4.29, 8.5
  4. Jarvis, 5.10, 5.8
  5. Howard, 5.47, 5.5

Eaton and Peavy are capable of big jumps. Jarvis will be in the rotation only if they can’t dump his contract. Howard remains terrific trade bait but if he isn’t moved, he’ll probably start the year at Portland and be ready, along with Dennis Tankersley, if needed.

David Wells is going back to the Yankees, which leaves Greg Maddux and, gulp, Chuck Finley as the big names potentially joining the rotation.

  • Maddux, 3.62, 5.8
  • Tankersley, 4.59, 8.4

I can think of worse things than sticking Maddux at the front of that rotation, moving Jarvis and his salary, and letting Howard and Tankersley battle for the fifth spot. Erik Hiljus and Rueben Quevedo are still on the market, I believe. Not that anyone’s talking about them, but they strike me as the kind of guys the Pads should be considering.

Bullpen

I don’t mean it as a backhanded compliment (although it is one) when I say that this will be much improved in 2004. The Padres now have a very legit (and comparatively inexpensive) bullpen. With Rod Beck and Ohtsuka in the fold, the entire corps is pretty well set, except for the possible addition of a second lefty.

  1. Hoffman, 9th inning, 3.27, 10.0
  2. Beck, 8th, 4.50, 8.0
  3. Ohtuska, 6th and 7th, 3.89, 9.0
  4. Witasick, 6th and 7th, 3.55, 9.8
  5. Linebrink, long man, 4.08, 7.2
  6. Walker, lefty, 4.29, 7.7

Projections appear to underestimate Beck and give Witasick too much credit. I know it’s mid-December and there are moves yet to be made, but I’m getting pretty psyched at the way this team is starting to come together. The Pads may not be quite ready to contend, but I think they’re going to make some noise this year. A veteran at the top of the rotation and a legit center fielder would do a world of good for this club and organization. Maddux and Lofton won’t be outrageously expensive and they won’t cost draft picks. I’d love to see Cameron in San Diego, but the more I think about it, the more I’m warming to Lofton. He should come cheaper and leave the Pads with more money to go out and get a pitcher or two.

Other Voices

We’ll keep our eyes on the various situations. Should be interesting to see how it all plays itself out…

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