Predictions?
Thu, Mar 31, 2005
by Geoff Young
So, anybody have predictions for this season? Here are a few of mine:
- Padres finish 87-75, make playoffs as wild card
- Adam Eaton has a breakout year: 15 wins, sub-3.80 ERA
- Jake Peavy gets at least one Cy Young vote
- Xavier Nady has a breakout year: .297/.355/.512
- Tim Redding is the #5 we’ve all been waiting for (gotta like his Padre debut)
- Ramon Hernandez deal doesn’t get done
Some individual projections of mine and various readers (feel free to add yours):
me: .304/.362/.432
Evan: .297/.354/.382
Richard: .295/.355/.405
Khalil Greene
me: .274/.345/.490
Anthony: .285/.363/.492
Xavier Nady
me: .297/.355/.512
Self-Promotion Department
- I wrote a little something called Meet the San Diego Padres for SportsFan Magazine. I need to work on my smarm.
- Chin Waggers at Second Wind Navajo in San Carlos this Friday and Saturday night. We’re more fun than watching Ricky Stone pitch, and a lot cheaper. Guess I still need to work on my smarm.
Finally, I’ve got a cool little interview coming up for you next week. It’ll be our first at Ducksnorts, and I think you’ll like it.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
March 31, 2005 at 8:21 am
I’m going to be optimistic and say this is the year everything comes together. Nevin and Klesko stay healthy and adjust to the park, Giles bounces back, Burroughs hits for a little more power, Greene continues to grow and makes the All Star team, Loretta is somewhere between 2003 and 2004 form, X has a breakout year (more games in CF than Roberts too), Eaton gets his head on straight, Peavy contends for the Cy Young, the bullpen continues it’s dominance, etc etc. 92-60, 1st place in the division and at least a first round win.
Of course everything could go wrong too but hey, it’s spring and it’s time to be optimistic.
April 1, 2005 at 8:11 am
Xavier Nady will get more AB’s than Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko, or Dave Roberts.
April 1, 2005 at 8:16 am
This doesn’t have anything to do with predictions, but is a bit of a bummer for anyone who was looking forward to seeing Travis Chick pitch live up the I-15.
“At Fort Wayne last season, Thompson went 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 27 starts.
Fellow left-handers Chris Tierney and Arturo Lopez and righties Edgar Huerta and Javier Martinez will round out the starting rotation,”
From the Storm roster article found here. It looks like Chick will be starting at Mobile (?):
http://www.nctimes.com/article....._31_05.txt
April 1, 2005 at 10:47 am
Eric: Wouldn’t surprise me at all. I’m really hoping for big things from X this year.
Jeff: Thanks for the info on Chick. That’s too bad, although I’m looking forward to watching Thompson and Kottaras. And if Javier Martinez is healthy he could be interesting.
On another note, anybody going to Elsinore tomorrow?
April 1, 2005 at 11:55 am
I’m going, courtesy of a work outing so I don’t even have to pay.
April 1, 2005 at 12:39 pm
My prediction was more a statement of pessimism about our mid-30s boys than optimism about Nady. But there is a little X-hope mixed in.
April 1, 2005 at 1:47 pm
I’m going to try to make it up there. Band is playing tonight and tomorrow night; assuming I get up at a reasonable hour, I’ll be there. I’ll be wearing a Chin Waggers shirt and Storm cap. Or at home sleeping.
April 2, 2005 at 4:25 pm
I predict our favorite whipping boy, Kerry Robinson, will get sent to AAA … oh wait, he just did
April 3, 2005 at 10:57 pm
Mathematical Projections for the Starting 8 based on 500 AB. I meant to do PA, but screw it, I did AB.
Read as AVG/OBP/SLG (H, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB+HBP):
Roberts .258/.339/.358 (129, 17, 9, 5, 56, 10, 61)
Loretta .324/.384/.470 (162, 33, 2, 12, 3, 3, 49)
Giles .292/.405/.516 (146, 31, 6, 23, 8, 3, 95)
Nevin .286/.355/.482 (143, 24, 1, 24, 2, 0, 53)
Klesko .280/.383/.470 (140, 34, 2, 19, 4, 4, 83)
Greene .250/.318/.434 (125, 32, 6, 16, 6, 1, 50)
Hernandez .268/.333/.454 (134, 28, 1, 21, 1, 0, 49)
Burroughs .290/.345/.374 (145, 22, 4, 4, 4, 4, 42)
A couple of things: I don’t trust the SB/CS numbers. Also, the Greene numbers are utter **** because of a lack of data and my refusal to waste time adjusting for improvement. Lastly, the Burroughs projections seem overly pessimistic (or perhaps my earlier guess was overly optimistic; either way, I like that Burroughs projects to hit 4 triples, hit 4 home runs, steal 4 bases, and be caught stealing 4 times).