In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Giants (25 Apr 2005)

by Geoff Young on Apr 25, 2005 (93) Comments

first pitch: 7:15 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (1-1, 5.16 ERA) vs Noah Lowry (1-1, 4.58 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine | SI

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Williams vs current Giants  211 .270 .339 .422
Lowry vs current Padres      41 .341 .438 .561

Beware the middle infielders. Omar Vizquel is hitting .438/.550/.625 against Woody in 16 at-bats, Durham is at .467/.500/.667 in 15 at-bats. On the other side, a much smaller sample. Brian Giles and Ramon Hernandez have homers against Lowry.

Acknowledging that one of his starts came at Coors Field, Williams has been getting hit pretty hard in the early going. So far, the further he goes into a game, the better he gets. Friars need to start winning some games; let’s hope Woody goes pretty far tonight.

Opponent OPS by number of pitches for Woody Williams and the Padres
Source: ESPN. Stats through games of Apr. 24, 2005.

Minor Monday

by Geoff Young on Apr 25, 2005 (2) Comments

Let’s take a quick look at how BA’s top 30 prospects are doing so far. Stats are from Baseball America and are through games of Apr. 24. Thanks also to LynchMob for providing periodic updates in the comments to various posts early this season.

                  Lvl  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB SO
#1 Barfield,Jo    AAA  64 .234 .306 .328  7 21
#2 Guzman,Fr                injured
#3 Kottaras,Ge      A+ 49 .327 .389 .408  5 14
#6 Bush,Ma          A  65 .215 .261 .308  4 13
#10 McAnulty,Pa    AA  54 .352 .444 .444  8 16
#11 Knott,Jo      AAA  57 .175 .329 .351 12 18
#12 Bozied,Ta               injured
#13 Quintero,Hu   AAA  47 .298 .377 .489  5  5 (Hou)
#14 Killian,Bi                ???
#16 Johnson,Be    AAA  60 .200 .284 .317  6 17
#18 Jones,Da                injured
#21 Furmaniak,J.  AAA  63 .286 .357 .349  6 25
#23 Ramirez,Yo      A  44 .159 .188 .250  2 10
#26 Johnson,Mi      A+ 57 .316 .394 .772 10 19
#27 Cruz,Lu        AA  58 .155 .206 .172  3 10

Michael Johnson is fascinating. He’s got 67 plate appearances so far; 35 times he’s walked, struck out, or hit the ball out of the park. Anybody know where Billy Killian is? I can’t seem to find him on any rosters.

                  Lvl    IP   ERA BB SO   BA
#4 Chick,Tr        AA  14.2  6.75  6 14 .263
#5 Stauffer,Ti    AAA  25.0  2.16  4 17 .242
#7 Germano,Ju     AAA  19.1  6.98  5 22 .300
#8 Thompson,Se      A+ 16.2  1.62  7 20 .241
#9 Baker,Br       AAA   8.0  3.38  9 10 .080
#15 Wells,Ja        A+ 18.1  4.42  3 15 .265
#17 Oxspring,Ch   AAA  16.2  4.86  2 16 .239
#19 Jimenez,Fa      A  16.0  0.56  8  8 .120
#20 Tucker,Ru      AA   8.0  4.50  7 11 .192
#22 Villatoro,Wi    A+  9.0  3.00  6 12 .194
#24 Mateo,Na       AA   8.2  4.15  4  5 .265
#25 Bukvich,Ry    MLB   4.0 11.25  6  4 .167 (Tex)
#28 Martinez,Ja     A+ 14.0  7.71  5 17 .276
#29 Thayer,Da      AA   8.2  3.12  2  8 .324
#30 Williams,Ra   AAA   9.1  2.89  6  4 .226

I’d still like to see Tim Stauffer get half a season under his belt at Triple-A, but if he keeps pitching like this and nobody steps up at #5 for the big club, it’s going to be difficult to keep him at Portland.

Like Tumbleweeds

by Geoff Young on Apr 25, 2005 (2) Comments

Padres swept in the desert by the Diamondbacks. The Snakes are much improved this year, but still, that was not a good series. The good news is, it’s early. The bad news is, the games count in the standings. Losses in April will still be there in September. It was nice to see the Padres put up a fight at the end of Sunday’s loss. Maybe they can build on that momentum and take some of that fight with them to San Francisco.

What the papers have to say:

And if you need a dose of optimism, you could do worse than to consider that the Padres, despite their 8-11 start, have outscored their opponents this season, 85-82. The same cannot be said of the 11-8 Diamondbacks, who have allowed 11 more runs than they’ve scored. Eventually that’ll even out a bit.

Finally, I’d like to point out an article I wrote about Kevin Towers over at Goat Riders of the Apocalypse (which gets my vote for best blog name ever). I know some of you won’t think I was critical enough, and I’m okay with that. I honestly believe Towers does a pretty darned good job given his resources. Feel free to leave comments here or there.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Diamondbacks

by Geoff Young on Apr 24, 2005 (17) Comments

first pitch: 1:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (1-2, 5.60 ERA) vs Shawn Estes (1-1, 4.00 ERA)
game previews: ESPN | CBS SportsLine | SI

Padres try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Snakes this afternoon. Saturday night’s loss was frustrating but not entirely surprising given the Pads’ lack of success against Brandon Webb in the past and poor clutch hitting this year, and the fact that once again their best hitter (Xavier Nady) was not in the lineup. Talk of bringing up Damian Jackson or Kerry Robinson to replace the hitless Adam Hyzdu is great, but none of those guys is a difference maker. Nady might be. It’d be a shame to see him waste another year in deference to guys with bigger contracts who aren’t necessarily better options.


                              AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Lawrence vs current D'backs  183 .235 .286 .355
Estes vs current Padres      201 .274 .368 .378
Padres vs LHP                151 .252 .370 .444
Giants vs RHP                420 .257 .321 .390

The one guy who owns Lawrence is Jose Cruz, Jr. (.538/.600/.923), currently on the DL. Shawn Green (.224/.296/.367) has two homers against Lawrence in 49 at-bats, while Luis Gonzalez (.200/.243/.314) hasn’t left the yard in 35 at-bats. For the Pads, Ryan Klesko (.368/.455/.632) has done the most damage against Estes. Geoff Blum (.444/.545/.889) and Xavier Nady (.500/.500/.875) also have had success, in much smaller samples. Estes has pretty well neutralized several of the Friars’ best hitters: Phil Nevin (.200/.351/.267), Brian Giles (.160/.222/.320), Mark Loretta (.211/.348/.263), Ramon Hernandez (.063/.167/.063). Day game after a night game? Looks like a good time to start Miguel Ojeda.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Diamondbacks

by Geoff Young on Apr 23, 2005 (3) Comments

first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 1.31 ERA) vs Brandon Webb (3-0, 3.26 ERA)
game previews: CBS SportsLine | SI

                           AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current D'backs  102 .275 .336 .500
Webb vs current Padres     98 .173 .214 .214

Luis Gonzalez owns Peavy: .529/.600/1.176 in 17 at-bats, with three jacks. Alex Cintron, Craig Counsell, and Shawn Green also have homers. For the Padres, only Brian Giles (.385/.429/.538 in 13 at-bats) has had any amount of success against Webb.

I’ve got band rehearsal tonight, but I’ll drop by later to see what y’all had to say. Go Pads!

Notes and Links

by Geoff Young on Apr 23, 2005 (0) Comments

Brain dump today. Thoughts on Sandy Alderson, Ken Caminiti, Ramon Hernandez, Xavier Nady, Tim Redding, and others. I had a lot of links today, so I grouped them by subject; hope that works for you…

Sandy Alderson

Ken Caminiti

  • In a way, Petco was built by Caminiti (U-T). The Padres honored the late Ken Caminiti before Thursday night’s game. I’ve said a lot about Cammy’s death elsewhere, but the gist of it is this: a) Yes, he was flawed, but who among us isn’t? b) Many folks in and around San Diego have very fond memories of the guy. I’m glad the Pads did something to honor Caminiti and his family. Those who suggest that this somehow validates his use of steroids need to remember one very important fact: The man is dead.

Ramon Hernandez

  • Job One for Alderson: Lock up Hernandez (U-T). I like Ramon Hernandez, but you can file this under “N” for Not Gonna Happen. There are some nice words from the pitching staff about their catcher, and I share their desire to see him return. Heck, every time he comes to bat, my wife says “Give that man $40M” (geez, I hope she’s not talking to me). But if Hernandez is looking for Varitek money and the Mets truly are willing to overpay, I don’t see it happening. And I still don’t like the idea of giving a catcher a four-year deal.

Xavier Nady

  • Nady to start against lefties (Padres.com). I’m happy, but why is this even news? Right now Xavier Nady is the Padres’ best hitter (that homer he hit to dead center off Brandon Lyon in Friday night’s loss reminded me of the shot Richie Sexson hit off Adam Eaton last year). The more he gets into the lineup, the better.

Tim Redding

  • Padres drop opener in Arizona (Padres.com). From the article: “Redding admitted that his poor start to the season has to stop soon, especially when the pitcher he replaced in the rotation, Darrell May, came in for Redding on Friday and pitched scoreless relief for 2 2/3 innings.” To be clear, May wasn’t great but he got the job done. If he ends up taking the #5 spot, you can bet he’ll be looking over his shoulder every bit as much as Redding must be now.
  • Fifth-starter blues have Padres down (U-T). Speaking of the #5 spot, this is just annoying: “For those who are keeping count, the post-Valdez No. 5s are 0-12 with a 7.85 ERA. Redding represents a quarter of the loss total with a 6.85 ERA.” Can we stop with the canonization of Ismael Valdez already? The guy just was not that good. If he were still here, he’d be getting pounded too, and the Padres wouldn’t have Travis Chick, their best pitching prospect. It’s time to move on. Seriously.

Other

  • Who’s on first? Who’s in the box? & Padres win! (Padres RunDown). Peter ranks the best GMs in baseball. Of the Padres’ Kevin Towers, he says: “I would ‘guestimate’ that he�s near the middle but in my top half.”
  • Winner At Eight: Dodgers 3, Padres 1 (6-4-2). I’m not linking to this just because Ducksnorts is quoted here (although I certainly appreciate that!); I like seeing what other teams’ perceptions are of the Padres, and I think Rob’s last paragraph is pretty telling.
  • TV commercial followup (Gaslamp Ball). The guys at GLB are in a television commercial with the Swinging Friar. General hilarity ensues.

In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Diamondbacks

by Geoff Young on Apr 22, 2005 (39) Comments

first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Tim Redding vs Brad Halsey

Redding makes his third start as a Padre, Halsey makes his 10th as a big leaguer. Jesse Garcia (.215/.234/.289 for his career) gets the start at short, so the rest of the lineup needs to pick up the slack.

                             AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Redding vs current D'backs   79 .316 .372 .481
Halsey vs league (career)   195 .303 .356 .456

Craig Counsell and Luis Gonzalez are doing most of the damage; the latter has the only homer off Redding. Only Geoff Blum (0 for 2) has at-bats against Halsey so I posted career numbers instead.

Follow along online: ESPN | CBS SportsLine | SI | Yahoo!

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Dodgers

by Geoff Young on Apr 21, 2005 (64) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton vs Scott Erickson

My band has a gig coming up soon and I need to do some work on my guitars, so my participation in this evening’s festivities will be limited. As Smitty says, “Beat LA!”

Preview at CBS SportsLine

Smitty says, 'Beat LA!'

Runs Would Be Nice

by Geoff Young on Apr 21, 2005 (14) Comments

Now that was an irritating way to lose a game (box score). Quick bullet points, because I simply don’t have the time to launch into the full-on assault I’d prefer.

  • Derek Lowe is a good pitcher, but he’s not as good as the Padres are making him look. This is not Kevin Brown, okay?
  • Difference in the game: Their homer went fair, ours stayed foul. Blum crushed a ball in the seventh that just hooked wide of the right-field foul pole. He keeps that fair, it’s a 4-0 game when the bullpen takes over. Heck, a little less loft on the ball he hit a few pitches later and he finds the gap in right-center to make it 3-0. What do they say: It’s a game of inches?
  • I’m beginning to take a disliking to J.D. Drew. First it was that Nintendo play last year where he threw out Mark Loretta at the plate to end a game. Now a game-tying homer in the eighth. Oh, and his first name is David? Memo to no-one in particular: There is no “J” in David (yes, I know his middle name is Jonathan; please don’t bother me with facts when I’m being snide).
  • Don’t let the two errors fool you, the Dodgers defense is real good. Those guys can get to some balls. That left side of the infield is outstanding. And oh, to have outfielders like those roam Petco.
  • Speaking of Dodgers outfielders, what’s up with Milton Bradley? Does he glare at the opposing pitcher every time a pitch moves him off the plate? It’s an interesting strategy for getting on base; he’ll be a perrenial favorite to lead the league in HBP if he keeps doing that.
  • Yeah, the bullpen blew the lead, but a pitching staff really needs more than one run. And I see they’ve re-reversed the call on Linebrink’s play in the 10th. Drew is now credited with an infield hit, adding two earned runs to Linebrink’s line. Don’t believe the box score; there were two errors on the play – the first came when Linebrink mishandled Drew’s grounder, the second came when he proceeded to throw the ball down the right field line.

And now we move to the tabular portion of our show. Bear in mind that it’s very early still (i.e., the usual small sample disclaimer applies)…

Heart of the Order: Brian Giles/Phil Nevin/Ryan Klesko

 AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
163 34  9  1  7 30 31 .209 .327 .405  .153 .196 .500
  • Good news: They’re drawing walks and hitting the ball with authority when they make contact.
  • Bad news: They’re not making a lot of contact. That’s not what you want for $26M.

Say it with once more, with feeling: It’s very early still.

Home/Road Splits: Can They Turn This to Their Advantage?

At Petco

            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
Padres     236 59 10  4  3 35 33 .250 .349 .364
Opponents  249 54  7  2  2 24 51 .217 .292 .285

Away from Petco

            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
Padres     270 62 13  0 10 35 55 .230 .318 .389
Opponents  276 84 17  1 12 20 58 .304 .351 .504

Here’s the condensed version:

           Petco OPS  Non-Petco OPS
Padres        713          707
Opponents     578          855

Looks like the hitters are ahead of the pitchers in adjusting to Petco this year. Here are Padres pitching home/road splits:

        IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Home  67.0 1.88  7.25 0.27 3.22 6.85
Road  67.2 5.59 11.17 1.60 2.66 7.71

Hmmm, that’s not good. Granted, three of the eight road games have been at Coors, but still. Here’s hoping this is a small-sample anomaly.

Tunes: Jeff Buckley, Elliott Smith, Pinback, Was (Not Was), Poi Dog Pondering, Thingy, Israel Kamakawiwo’ole, This Mortal Coil, Keali’i Reichel

In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Dodgers

by Geoff Young on Apr 20, 2005 (136) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams vs Derek Lowe

Good to see the Pads complete the sweep of SF. In case you missed it, they beat the Giants, 5-2 behind Brian Lawrence‘s strong pitching. Richard, Lance, and I had a solid chat going throughout the game. Where were you?

So now that Lawrence has gotten a good start under his belt, maybe Williams can follow suit. He’s surrendered four bombs over his first three outings. On the bright side, Williams does have a 2.86 ERA against the Dodgers in 91.1 innings. His counterpart, Lowe, spun a three-hit shutout against the Padres last week up in LA. The batters will need to adjust and figure out how to handle his power sinker.

Dave Roberts isn’t doing much at the plate, but the club has won both games he’s played. Geoff Blum continues to surprise in Khalil Greene‘s absence, hitting .280/.333/.560 in the early going. And to those who worry about the Padres’ relatively slow start, just remember that if this were the NFL, we’d be tied up about halfway through the second quarter of the second game. Plus we’d be watching football, so at least we’ve got that going for us.

I’ll be out at the park tonight. Talk amongst yourselves…