first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy vs Josh Beckett
preview: Padres.com
Well, the Padres lost the one they were “supposed” to lose Wednesday night. Ran into a train named Dontrelle Willis, who shut out the Friars on five hits. Game was over in less than two hours. That’s not baseball, that’s high tea.
But today is another day. And how. If you can get home early to watch this one, I’d encourage you to do so. This is a matchup between two pitchers folks are likely to be talking about 20 years from now. Check out Dave Studeman’s take on Peavy (among many other interesting things) over at Hardball Times.
Still not sure? Here’s tonight’s tale of the tape:
| Player | Age | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peavy | 24 | 613.1 | 3.43 | 8.03 | 1.06 | 2.96 | 8.70 |
| Beckett | 25 | 561.2 | 3.45 | 7.72 | 0.80 | 3.28 | 8.97 |
Really, this should be a fantastic game.
I’m working on a little research project, so that’s all the time I have for now (sorry!). Give the second episode of Ducksnorts Radio a listen if you haven’t already. Or even if you have.
Meantime, there are still fish to fry. Enjoy the festivities, and let’s win ourselves a series!
I appreciate all the tips, I am revamping the current weblog and working on a new one at the blogspot address yall gave me. thanks again.
ps. got rid of the polka dots, ha ha
Lookin’ good, hank! I REALLY like your summaries of all the Padres minor league games … and the link to the box scores … that saves me a lot time! I will visit your web page daily!
http://www.angelfire.com/sports/padresreport/hanksrants/
ps. I’m not seeing many “rants” lately … go for it!
Total number of runs scored by the entire NL West yesterday: 5.
Hank, much better. Maybe a little less “texture” in the left and right columns? (Just a personal opinion – I’m a less is more kinda guy.) And yes, more rants!
Brian, that is both funny and pathetic. How badly is the division as a whole being outscored this year?
Good question.
Allow me to begin this analysis by stating this one simple yet shocking fact: The Padres have scored exactly 3 more runs than the Royals this year. And don’t give me any of that crap about Park Effects or the DH or anything. That’s pathetic.
The answer to your question is: 438. That is, the whole division has been outscored 2,587-3,025. That’s 0.73 fewer runs/game but of course that includes intradivision games where SOME NL West team has to win.
I can’t do this for the other NL West teams but, thanks to my handy Padres 2005 spreadsheet, I can tell you that in non-division games, the Padres have been outscored 288-354 (66 runs worse) or 0.88 runs/game. (In divisional games, they outscore the opponents 221-191).
And the trend continues already this morning! The Giants already trail the Reds 2-0 in the first.
Runs
For Against Diff
SD 509 545 (36)
AZ 529 637 (108)
LA 513 580 (67)
SF 505 587 (82)
CO 531 676 (145)
ML Ranking
SD 26 14
AZ 21 25
LA 25 20
SF 28 22
CO 20 28
How does a team rank only 20th in the big leagues playing at Coors Field?
Lastly, the Padres are 23rd in BA with RISP. But the good news is with RISP and 2 out, they soar all the way up to 22nd.
Thanks, Brian. That is just incredibly bad. I wonder if anyone has run historical numbers on this stuff. Seems like something that might have shown up in one of the old STATS Baseball Scoreboard books. It would be interesting to know, in a historical context, how weak the division is.
For what it’s worth, the 1973 NL East, the division that previously had the champion with the fewest wins (Mets, with 82), played at a .485 clip as a group. They had four teams within +/- four games of .500. There have undoubtedly been worse divisions than a collective .485.
At its current rate, I estimate the powerhouse NL West finishes at .445. Of course, that rate should increase because they play each other for the last month of the year, which is why the strike year where the AL West was horrid doesn’t count for this comparison.
By the way, in 1973 the Padres finished 60-102, the same record the current Rockies are on track for. Coincedence or…?
Geoff and Lance,
TERRIFIC half-hour tribute to Little Milton (RIP) here:
http://www.wfmu.org/playlists/SV
It’s the last half hour of the show (the whole show is an hour).
Down 1-0 after two. These days that feels insurmountable.
Down 1-0 after two. These days that feels insurmountable.
Ooops, apologies for the triple post.
More Nady ranting. OK, I see the heavy shift to LHB, but why not put Jackson at SS and Nady at 3B? Bochy treats Nady and 3B as if a player hits a ball to Nady at 3B MLB will deduct 10 wins from the Padres record.
I don’t mind resting RandaBurroughs (a mythical Greek beast that devours OPS), but in a game that is most likely going to be low scoring, get your best AB to HR hitter in there. Bochy drives me nuts sometimes.
Sorry, bad research, it is actually RandaBurroughsBlum.
I can understand Nady sitting against tough right handers, he is hitting .217/.258/.462.. He is still dangerous if they make a mistake with something offspeed over the plate(9 homers of rightys). the .462 slg is the only thing that keeps him from a sub .600 ops. .258 obp is pathetic.
Thanks, Brian. I’ll check it out.
I hope Geoff doesn’t mind me adding this, from My friend Buddy Blue’s “Blue Notes” U-T column:
BLUE NOTES
By Buddy Blue
I was completely unprepared for the news that blues legend Little Milton Campbell passed away on August 4th, following a stroke suffered on July 27. True, the singer-guitarist was no spring chicken at age 71, but he’d been performing at the peak of his powers recently, showing no signs whatsoever of ill health or artistic deceleration. In fact, it was only a couple of months ago when I reported that his latest release, “Think Of Me” (Telarc), was “more tuff and variegated than anything we’ve heard from him in the past decade.”
I was hardly alone in noting Campbell’s ongoing vitality. Many musicians – both friends and interview subjects – had marveled at Milton’s might after recently experiencing him in concert. Most telling was a conversation with Gregg Allman a few months back, where he cited Campbell as his all-time favorite singer.
“Little Milton Campbell — ooooh, man!” Allman enthused. “That son of a gun….he steps back almost a yard from the damn microphone and you can hear him perfect. When he sings, it don’t even look like he’s breathing, he just opens his mouth and it rips out of there, man! And he’s always dressed to the nines, a hatband with diamonds on it, man.”
Sadly, you won’t encounter any Little Milton discs at the mall; probably not even in the indie record stores clerked by purple-haired dullards. This was the curse of Campbell’s long career, dating back to the early ’50s: white people, even many misguided blues fans, often couldn’t relate unless they lived in a van down by the river! Hell, even many African-Americans north of the Mason-Dixon Line didn’t grok his greatness, so Campbell’s lifelong fan base was mostly among Southern Blacks and European blues connoisseurs.
He was a great’un all the same; sort of a one-man bridge between B.B. King and Bobby “Blue” Bland. Campbell’s music was funkier than a sack full of neck bones with grease oozing through the paper. When he played, the whole room smelled of Dixie Peach pomade and Alligator Wine, High John the Conqueror Root and Love Potion Number Nine. On great songs like “We’re Gonna Make It,” “Grits Ain’t Groceries” and “Without My Sweet Baby,” he addressed the harsh realities of life and love with a booming baritone so resonant and churchy it sounded like it came equipped with its own echo chamber.
Tracking Campbell’s recorded history reveals much about his eminence, as he was associated with four of the most storied labels in music history: Sun, Chess, Stax and Malaco Records. He was never a purist, always indulging his twin love of R&B and blues, performing each with equal skill, taste and expertise, no matter the commercial consequence.
Donations (in lieu of flowers) can be sent to:
The Little Milton Campbell Memorial Fund Tribute
St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital
501 St. Jude Place, Memphis, TN 38105
Donations can also be made via telephone by calling (800) 873-6983.
Jay,
Don’t forget — this is a lineup that featured Eric Young hitting third the past few days.
But most of his HR’s have come against RHP (odd statistic).
It is amazing: LAA, KC, Cleveland and Florida all got worse production from their 3B position than we did. Ours? OPS .674. Ouch.
And DJ, who I like, has a .689 OPS vs RHP, vs. X of .720. Neither great, but we have been starved for offense, so would give it a try.
Jay, a power right hander like Beckett is not the type of guy you start Nady against this year. I’ve already posted Nady’s HRs against right handers in another thread, and there is no one like Beckett on the list.
two hits, whoda thunk it would be peavy and valdez..??
what are the chances of btb shutouts? I would say 6/5…
I will check it out. Did not know there was a type of pitcher he did worse or better than. However, we are comparing him vs. Valdez on offense (DJ bumping Valdez at SS). A little less D, but I don’t care what kind of pitcher he is, there is no way the marginal defense of is worth the hit you take with Valdez. But, then again, he does have one of our hits.
Jay, any hypothetical involving Nady at 3B just isn’t going to fly this season (Nady isn’t even taking any practice there anymore), so posting such things is just going to make yourself and others mad. That’s cool if you want to rant like that. I won’t feed the frenzy by responding to them anymore.
LA and Arizona both are winning.
Robert Fick is making his first ever appearance at third base.
I wonder if Fick has been taking practice there.
(Sorry, TF; couldn’t resist.)
And why is Sweeney hitting vs. LHP? I guess he thinks the match up vs. Villone is better than whoever they would bring in to pitch to Nady, but maybe they wouldn’t.
Wow, coming home and reading the play by play of the seventh inning is brutal. EY as the ace pinch hitter?!? Swings at the first pitch too! And now after all the harping over Nady not being able to play third base, Fick is playing there for the first time ever. More than ever, I am so sorry that Bochy was rewarded with an extension. The evidence is pretty overwhelming at this point that Bochy can’t develop a young hitter. This is depressing…
The data doesn’t support it. Sweeney vs. LHP is .600 OPS; Nady vs. RHP .720 and you get the small option that they do not switch Villone and you get a great match up.
Bochy’s use of Nady: I can’t stand it. Sorry to be a broken record, but I cannot stand it.
I hear you Bruce. How can you put Fick at 3B and never, ever give Nady a shot there? It makes no sense.
And what has Wilson Valdez done to deserve three starts in a row at SS? He just shows that if you give Bochy a useless player, he will find a way to use him. Why could they have not brought up Johnson? He can’t hit any worse than Valdez, and then DJ could have played SS. Boggles my mind.
Glad X gets to bat in such a key situation.
Yes, Geoff, Fick has in fact been taking practice at 3B. That was reported during the game and has been mentioned before – Fick is a gamer and will do anything to get playing time. He apparently has graded out there better than Nady. Also, once they pinch hit for Valdez, and with Randa not available, Bochy pretty much had to go with Fick at 3B unless he wanted to burn two players.
And yes, I would have agreed with hitting Nady for Sweeney against Villone, even at the risk of them bringing in a hard throwing righty like Guillermo Mota. Not surprised that Nady failed against Jones – he doesn’t hit righties well, and he doesn’t pinch hit well.
TF: Thanks for the info on Fick. Hadn’t heard any talk of him at 3B. Makes sense, though. The research I’m doing right now involves Bochy’s managerial tendencies, and his decision to try Fick over Nady at 3B is pretty consistent with my findings. It’s a little depressing but it makes sense. I’m also more convinced than ever that trading for Giles was the right move. Bay wouldn’t have gotten a shot here.
3B Joe Randa was not in the lineup. Manager Bruce Bochy said he wanted to give Randa a chance to rest a sore back. Randa was 2-for-8 on the road trip. … RHP Chan Ho Park was scheduled to start Friday night at Atlanta. Park held the Braves to one run and eight hits in five innings and won on June 15 as a member of the Texas Rangers. … Entering Thursday night’s game, the Padres had been shut out 11 times this season after being held scoreless three times in 2004.
MIAMI – Khalil Greene will miss at least one more week than expected because of his broken left big toe.
“He’s going to be out closer to four weeks than the original projection of two to three weeks,” Padres trainer Todd Hutcheson said yesterday. “After looking at further X-rays, the fracture was a little different than when we thought when we first saw it.”
Geoff, if you assume that the Padres would have still made the Ramon/Long for Kotsay trade, Bay might have gotten a shot here because he could play CF. I am pretty sure he played there in his 3 games in San Diego.
In three games at third (2.0 AdjG), Nady has a Rate of 100 (exactly league average and exactly the same as Damian Jackson). Admittedly, it is a small sample size. Still, Bochy has given playing time to players at positions they have not fielded as well as Nady has at third.
They are: Fick (C), Hernandez (C), Ojeda (C), Blum (2B), Young (2B), Randa (3B), Garcia (SS), Jackson (SS), Klesko (LF), Nady (LF), Giles (CF), Nady (CF), Roberts (CF), Giles (RF), Nady (RF). That’s right. Nady has been much worse in the outfield than he was at third base, but Boch still puts him out there. Nady has been much worse at all three outfield positions than he has been at third. Maybe Bochy doesn’t think the outfield is important?
Hank, I’ve got you back in the links over on the right. As for how to do the “blog thing,” I highly recommend reading these blogs:
http://www.problogger.net/
Darren Rowse’s blog is essential. I read this absolutely every day.
http://www.blogbusinessworld.blogspot.com/
http://ripples.typepad.com/ripples/
Wayne Hurlburt (Blog Business World) and David St. Lawrence (Ripples) have a lot of real good insights as well.
Hope this helps…
Maybe Bochy doesn’t think the outfield is important?
I guess not, since he can’t play Damian Jackson or Eric Young in every OF position, or maybe he doesn’t make decisions based on small sample sizes. Maybe instead, he makes decisions based upon what he sees from players everyday from Spring Training onward, including pregrame field work. We can certainly argue that Bochy overemphasizes defense at 3B instead of caring about offensive production, but based on everything, not just a small sample size of three games, it should be evident that Bochy had defensive confidence in Burroughs and Randa over Nady, and now Fick over Nady at 3B. Otherwise, you need to show that Bochy was lying about X’s performance in ST and pregame, that in fact X wasn’t having difficulty making throws to first, and that X wasn’t displaying poor footwork and limited range.
Also, Fick gets the benefit of the doubt because he’s a veteran. Not saying I necessarily agree with this line of thinking, but looking at the way Bochy has handled his players over the past decade, there is a pattern.
It’s not about making the decision based on a small sample. It’s about taking a damn chance.