first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-4, 3.97 ERA) vs Hector Carrasco (4-3, 2.19 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

magic number: 11

Color me stupid, but despite the Pads’ poor play, I’m still pumped. Sure, the turning point turned out to be more of a hiccup. And the Friars probably won’t finish with a winning record. But as of this morning, the Pads have a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. You know what? It ain’t pretty but I’ll take it.

A Little Perspective, Please

Padres won 87 games last year, for their first winning season since their World Series appearance in 1998. I predicted that the team would duplicate that record this season. Although it may have been a bit much to expect a team coming off a 21-game improvement to maintain all of its gains, I thought it was possible. I still think it was possible, although obviously it hasn’t worked out that way.

But when you think about it, is the point of the season to finish with x number of wins? I dunno, ask the 2001 Seattle Mariners.

I submit that the real point is to get into the playoffs and, once there, make the most of your opportunity. Yeah, it’s easy to get down on this year’s club (I speak from experience), but the bottom line is they are, regardless of reasons, in good position to go to the playoffs. From there, anything can happen: certainly more than if you’re sitting at home waiting for spring training.

Nice Analysis, Pollyanna; You Got Numbers to Go with That?

Funny you should ask. Check it out:

Now the question you have to ask yourself is, would you rather be 72-74 with a 5 1/2 game lead and 96.3% chance of making the playoffs or do you prefer 68-78 with an 18 1/2 game defecit and 0% chance of making the playoffs? Look, I’m not going to make the argument that the 2005 Pads are a real good team. But when you look at the bigger picture, and when you consider that 22 teams won’t be in the playoffs this year, I’m relatively okay with things.

How about you?