IGD: Padres vs Nationals (17 Sep 2005)
Sat, Sep 17, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-4, 3.97 ERA) vs Hector Carrasco (4-3, 2.19 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
magic number: 11
Color me stupid, but despite the Pads’ poor play, I’m still pumped. Sure, the turning point turned out to be more of a hiccup. And the Friars probably won’t finish with a winning record. But as of this morning, the Pads have a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. You know what? It ain’t pretty but I’ll take it.
A Little Perspective, Please
Padres won 87 games last year, for their first winning season since their World Series appearance in 1998. I predicted that the team would duplicate that record this season. Although it may have been a bit much to expect a team coming off a 21-game improvement to maintain all of its gains, I thought it was possible. I still think it was possible, although obviously it hasn’t worked out that way.
But when you think about it, is the point of the season to finish with x number of wins? I dunno, ask the 2001 Seattle Mariners.
I submit that the real point is to get into the playoffs and, once there, make the most of your opportunity. Yeah, it’s easy to get down on this year’s club (I speak from experience), but the bottom line is they are, regardless of reasons, in good position to go to the playoffs. From there, anything can happen: certainly more than if you’re sitting at home waiting for spring training.
Nice Analysis, Pollyanna; You Got Numbers to Go with That?
Funny you should ask. Check it out:
| Year | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 68 | 78 | .466 | 20.5 |
| 2000 | 71 | 75 | .486 | 16.0 |
| 2001 | 73 | 73 | .500 | 9.0 |
| 2002 | 61 | 85 | .418 | 29.0 |
| 2003 | 59 | 87 | .404 | 30.5 |
| 2004 | 78 | 68 | .534 | 6.5 |
| Average | 68 | 78 | .468 | 18.5 |
| Averages are rounded, so the numbers don’t quite add up. | ||||
Now the question you have to ask yourself is, would you rather be 72-74 with a 5 1/2 game lead and 96.3% chance of making the playoffs or do you prefer 68-78 with an 18 1/2 game defecit and 0% chance of making the playoffs? Look, I’m not going to make the argument that the 2005 Pads are a real good team. But when you look at the bigger picture, and when you consider that 22 teams won’t be in the playoffs this year, I’m relatively okay with things.
How about you?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 17, 2005 at 12:16 pm
I’m relatively ok with things. Just ready for this season to be put out of it’s misery, and get that hope flowing when the first pitch of the post season is thrown.
Right now, this team is painful to watch. I’m pumped, I’m hopeful, but I just want this season to end already.
September 17, 2005 at 12:37 pm
Is it safe to ask…has anyone heard when playoff tix go on sale?
September 17, 2005 at 1:32 pm
A few posts ago, I likened the Padre woes down the stretch to hearing odd noises on the plane. Is it a prelude to a crash or just random, safe noise? Should I be panicked or just chill. I am sitting uncomfortably in my seat and the noise won’t go away. Still could just be a random noise. A little stretch of .500 ball (is that asking too much?) would ease my nerves, but losing 5 of 6 is not helping.
But, this could be an oddly blessed year. For all the heartache bestowed upon more deserving teams, perhaps this is where we somehow pull this out despite all of the flaws.
Go Pads.
September 17, 2005 at 4:08 pm
Storm up 2-0 in Cal League Champ Series … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_lesafx_1 … catcher Colt Morton has HR’d in both games … go Storm!
September 17, 2005 at 6:40 pm
AFL rosters are set … http://www.baseballamerica.com.....er_pj.html … Padres’ farmhands are …
Pitchers
Craig Breslow
Rusty Tucker
Hitters
George Kotarras
Michael Johnson
… with 5-6 more spots to be filled. Seems like the Padres ought to get a couple of those spots …
September 17, 2005 at 6:49 pm
Here’s something scary for you … a Vince Faison sighting! In the “Special Mention Catagory” of (what I presume will be) the final BA Prospect Hot Sheet … http://www.baseballamerica.com.....t2005.html … it says “The 20th overall pick of the 1999 draft, Faison was never able to translate his athleticism into on-the-field performance, batting just .241/.315/.367 in six pro seasons. Without a job entering 2005, the 24-year-old Faison hooked on with Jackson in the independent Central League, where he hit .303-15-66 in 83 games before getting another shot with the Yankees. Assigned to shore up the roster at Tampa, Faison has been unstoppable, batting .455 in eight games with four doubles, three triples and a home run.”
Also “In The Team Photo” are real prospects Josh Barfield and Cesar Carillo and George Kottaras!
September 17, 2005 at 9:58 pm
Holy f***ing s**t! Khalil!!!!!!!!
September 17, 2005 at 10:00 pm
I know, can you believe that? And the Nats pretty much used their entire bullpen in the ninth.
September 17, 2005 at 10:01 pm
Excuse my ****. Got a little excited there. And tho’ we still have to find a way to win this, at least the Nationals pen has been burned, and we still got Linebrink, Aki, Hoffman rested & ready.
September 17, 2005 at 10:07 pm
A little excited? Yeah, I think that’s okay. Did you see Khalil even came out for the curtain call.
Even if we don’t get the win tonight, we’ve set ourselves up nicely for tomorrow. I’m assuming Cordero will have to pitch the 10th, which might limit his availability on Sunday.
September 17, 2005 at 10:07 pm
I know for Bochy it’s automatic to go to Hoffman here, but if you were managing, Geoff, wouldn’t it have to be Linebrink?
September 17, 2005 at 10:09 pm
Yes, I would go with Linebrink. Almost every big-league manager will put his closer out there in a ninth-inning tie at home. “The book” at work…
September 17, 2005 at 10:10 pm
I’m sorry to say that on a effing Sat. night, I’m at work “watching” on the net, so I’ll catch it late at home on the Channel 4 replay.
September 17, 2005 at 10:11 pm
I’ll never understand why Bochy puts Hoffman in with the game tied. The numbers haven’t lied on that situation for a LONG TIME… Trevor’s even said it himself that hitters aren’t as anxious as he needs them to be when the game is tied.
But holy hot damn Khalil. After two days of boring baseball, he just jacked the adrenaline shot down on the Padres offensive corpse Pulp Fiction style.
Hope y’all are well. Geoff, you remain a gentlemen among swine like myself. Cheers, homeboy.
Troy
September 17, 2005 at 10:11 pm
Whew, Trevor got out of it. Roberts, Young, Hernandez in the 10th.
September 17, 2005 at 10:12 pm
Worked out okay. Let’s get a run.
September 17, 2005 at 10:14 pm
Hey Troy! Good to hear from ya. Nice job with the Colonel on tonight’s show. “Holy hot damn Khalil.” Well said, my friend. Well said.
September 17, 2005 at 10:14 pm
I]m watching this one at work. I]m the only one who cheered in the 9th, because this is Nationals country, and everyone just wanted the game to be over.
What a shot by Khalil.
September 17, 2005 at 10:15 pm
Nats are using their eighth pitcher of the night. That’s a heckuva breaking ball to get Roberts.
September 17, 2005 at 10:16 pm
EY from 7th inning on: .208/.269/.313
September 17, 2005 at 10:17 pm
This plate umpire is brutal.
September 17, 2005 at 10:17 pm
Ball one to Young was strike three to Roberts…talk about inconsistant…
September 17, 2005 at 10:18 pm
Rauch got a lot of help from Doug Eddings on that strikeout. Ramon from 7th on: .333/.360/.500
September 17, 2005 at 10:18 pm
Come on Papi!
September 17, 2005 at 10:19 pm
Yep. And it’s working both ways. Trevor struck out Guillen in the 9th on ball four.
September 17, 2005 at 10:19 pm
Damn, just missed that one.
September 17, 2005 at 10:22 pm
Hey, here comes Linebrink.
Guzman 7th on: .230/.263/.389
September 17, 2005 at 10:25 pm
Great play by Randa. Slow chopper, gloves and throws on the run to get Cruz.
September 17, 2005 at 10:28 pm
Randa makes the play on essentially the same one he flubbed the inning before.
September 17, 2005 at 10:28 pm
Pure filth to strike out Wilkerson. Bottom of the 11th:
1. Giles 7th on: .272/.451/.382
2. Nady 7th on: .224/.328/.422
3. Randa 7th on (SD only): .316/.371/.439
September 17, 2005 at 10:29 pm
Nice work from Linebrink. I say again….let’s get a run.
September 17, 2005 at 10:30 pm
Wow, did you realize the double Burroughs hit in SF the other day was his first extra base hit to come in the seventh inning or later all year?
September 17, 2005 at 10:31 pm
X was trying to end it right there. Just put it in play.
September 17, 2005 at 10:33 pm
If Nady gets on, I say PH “Clutch” Burroughs for Randa.
September 17, 2005 at 10:33 pm
Randa hit that to the wrong part of the park. C’mon Loretta, let’s send ‘em home happy.
September 17, 2005 at 10:34 pm
Loretta from 7th on: .324/.405/.369
September 17, 2005 at 10:35 pm
Damn, damn, damn. Loretta puts it to the wall in left field but no dice.
September 17, 2005 at 10:35 pm
Man, this park is big.
September 17, 2005 at 10:37 pm
Top 12 for Was:
1. Rauch
2. Guillen 7th on: .333/.397/.564
3. Byrd 7th on: .222/.315/.317
September 17, 2005 at 10:38 pm
Thanks for the PBP, Geoff. Appreciate it. Do we get a 2nd inning from Linebrink? Only 10 pitches in the 11th.
September 17, 2005 at 10:39 pm
Wow, Linebrink has got that breaking ball working. He’s made Wilkerson and Guillen look awful.
September 17, 2005 at 10:40 pm
Geez, he’s got the fastball working, too. I’ll say this now: If Trevor walks after the season, I have absolutely no problem with giving the ninth to Linebrink. The guy could close for most clubs right now.
September 17, 2005 at 10:41 pm
Maybe Linebrink can give us 3. I hope we don]t need it.
September 17, 2005 at 10:42 pm
Bottom 12 for SD:
1. Greene 7th on: .220/.266/.364
2. Jackson 7th on: .188/.271/.260
3. Roberts 7th on: .261/.353/.365
Actually, Khalil’s numbers are a little better now.
September 17, 2005 at 10:43 pm
Linebrink: 22 pitches, 18 strikes.
Whoa, where was that pitch to Khalil? I thought for sure he’d get rung up there.
September 17, 2005 at 10:44 pm
Base hit Khalil! Woody up to bunt.
September 17, 2005 at 10:46 pm
That from Woody? I am surprised…
September 17, 2005 at 10:46 pm
Woody strikes out. Interesting to have him bat for DJ.
September 17, 2005 at 10:47 pm
Adjusted runs prevented:
2005:
Linebrink 19.2
Aki 10.0
Hoffy 7.8
2004:
Linebrink 41.1
Aki 24.1
Hoffy 20.1
September 17, 2005 at 10:48 pm
Correction, DJ is still in the game. Woody was batting for Linebrink. ESPN has DJ in the #9 spot.
September 17, 2005 at 10:50 pm
Bloop single to right for DJ. Let’s go, Ramon.
September 17, 2005 at 10:51 pm
PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN! PADS WIN!
September 17, 2005 at 10:51 pm
That was beautiful. 3-run walk-off HR by Hernandez.
September 17, 2005 at 10:52 pm
Most excellent! I look forward to the replay. Thanks and GOODNIGHT EVER’BODY!
September 17, 2005 at 11:00 pm
Absolutly a HUGE win….and one to remember…I will gladly pay $10.00 for a tape if anyone Tivo’d this…