IGD: Padres @ Rockies (22 Sep 2005)
Thu, Sep 22, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 12:05 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Adam Eaton (10-4, 4.10 ERA) vs Aaron Cook (5-1, 3.39 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
Wednesday Recap
How clutch was Jake Peavy Wednesday night? Pads seriously needed innings out of their ace, and that’s precisely what they got. Their lead in the NL West remains at 5, with 11 games to play. The buzz around the country surrounding the Padres’ pursuit of the division title is deafening. Or it would be, if anyone cared.
Day Game Alert
Noon start for folks on the West Coast. No television. Ah yes, pennant fever.
Cook averages 3.28 K/9 IP over his career. This year, that number is even lower, 2.77. Despite the alarming lack of dominance, Cook has fared well in 2005. He may have hit upon a recipe for success at Coors: no walks and lots of ground balls (3.27 GB/FB ratio this year).
Eaton sports a 5.93 ERA since the All-Star break. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Padres really need a second starter to step up going into the playoffs. Right now it’s looking like that might be ― gasp ― Pedro Astacio. I’d sure feel a lot better if Eaton started pitching well again.
Division Winners with Negative Run Differentials
Padres current run differential is -52. Fueled by comments from Eric and Brian G. in Tuesday night’s IGD and thanks to the indispensable Lahman database, I found that four teams since division play began in 1969 have won their division with a negative differential:
1994 Rangers: -84 (strike, no playoffs)
1987 Twins: -20 (World Series champs, beating Cards in 7)
1984 Royals: -13 (swept in division series by eventual WS champ Tigers)
1997 Giants: -9 (swept in division series by eventual WS champ Marlins)
So if history is any guide, the Pads will win it all or lose to the team that does (or there will be a labor dispute). Similarities? Forget the Twins. They had four guys hit 28+ homers; barring a minor miracle, the Pads won’t have anyone hit 20.
This team probably most closely resembles the 1984 Royals squad, which had a stud (Bud Black) at the head of the rotation and a strong bullpen anchored by the late, great Dan Quisenberry (remember when a closer could work 129 innings?). The rest of the starting staff was pretty pedestrian, with guys like Larry Gura and Charlie Liebrandt playing the roles currently occupied by Woody Williams and Brian Lawrence.
The offense was a haphazard collection of veteran bats (Frank White, Hal McRae, Jorge Orta, George Brett), role players (Darryl Motley, Pat Sheridan, Dane Iorg), a competent leadoff hitter (Willie Wilson), and one real power threat (Steve Balboni). Okay, it’s not a perfect match, but there are some definite similarities between that team and the 2005 Padres.
Enough of my slapdash analysis. Time to take the series and wrap this thing up.
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September 22, 2005 at 9:58 am
7.7 IP by Jake allowing only two runs at Coors Field while throwing no sinkers and only one slider (the home run) is rather amazing.
September 22, 2005 at 12:30 pm
Scoreless through two…
September 22, 2005 at 12:32 pm
We need to address our pitching this winter. Our offense is mediocre and we may lose Giles, which’ll hurt. But right now I’d pay millions for a third base coach who realizes:
1. Where the game is being played
2. Who’s running
September 22, 2005 at 12:52 pm
Does Klesko ever hit the ball hard anymore?
September 22, 2005 at 12:58 pm
Two on, none out, no runs.
I’ve backed Klesko for years, but it’s worth asking if he’s finished for this season. He’s been awful since June. Maybe I’m piling on now, but it’s hard to recall the last time he even hit a scary fly ball.
September 22, 2005 at 1:09 pm
He can apparenty still hit when healthy, but he’s just rarely healthy anymore.
September 22, 2005 at 1:10 pm
Cook has thrown 54 pitches through 5 innings? Damn, that’s impressive at Coors.
September 22, 2005 at 1:12 pm
That’s what I’m getting at. Helping him get back on-track is a great idea if he’s on-trackable. If he’s not, because he’s hurt, then he’s doing us no good.
September 22, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Has Eaton progressed at all since being called up as a 21-year-old?
September 22, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Hey, back from Yoga, looks like padre hitters are boinking again, just to many hits (of something) over the last three days. can’t understand our offense this year.
Klesko, stick a fork in him, he’s done. Apparently, a nice guy but hes supposed to be protecting and that ain’t happening.
September 22, 2005 at 1:27 pm
What are the odds we get shut out twice in one season at Coors? Will writing that take the jinx off or lock it down tighter?
September 22, 2005 at 1:30 pm
Cook 65-39 pitches in 6IP.
Can the Padres batters not take a pitch?
September 22, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Klesko OPS:
April 855
May 878
June 843
& then…
July 734
Aug 610
Sept 477
September 22, 2005 at 1:36 pm
Maybe Klesko needs slump buster. Where’s Gracey these days?
September 22, 2005 at 1:39 pm
Cook’s sinker is good, but not shutout good–the defense behind him has preserved the shutout.
September 22, 2005 at 1:40 pm
fate owes us a clutch hit.
September 22, 2005 at 1:41 pm
F you fate
September 22, 2005 at 1:43 pm
What the heck?
Double play at 3B. Shoot. What’s going on?
It looks like either Cook is lucky because the Padres are having short ABs against him or the hitters are just too agressive in making outs.
September 22, 2005 at 1:45 pm
Previous killed rallies can be credited to poor clutch hitting, but this one was just luck.
September 22, 2005 at 1:45 pm
Are they just mailing it in today or what. Christ, they look lethargic. What more can Eaton do. I hate these teams offense. I wonder if playing at Petco Mall messes with their hitting on the road. Whatever.
September 22, 2005 at 1:48 pm
They don’t look lethargic to me…minus a couple defensive gems and this game could be 5-2 Pads.
September 22, 2005 at 1:49 pm
I just can’t wait to be done with the Rockies. Those pesky bats.
Still can’t believe the Padres were at the losing end of a 1-0 game in Mile High.
September 22, 2005 at 1:50 pm
wow…that was a nasty slider down and away–how did Helton hit it that far? He must have been guessing the pitch and location.
September 22, 2005 at 1:51 pm
Lucky Helton. Lucky enough to be playing in Mile High in his whole career.
September 22, 2005 at 1:52 pm
Double switch time. Take a drink.
September 22, 2005 at 2:03 pm
Another shutout by the Rockies?
I think it’s the making of another Khalil propelled comeback win.
September 22, 2005 at 2:09 pm
The Rockies announcers said the Nationals have only one regular in the lineup against the Giants today.
September 22, 2005 at 2:17 pm
Reach for them rally caps.
September 22, 2005 at 2:17 pm
Didi, you’re a prophet
September 22, 2005 at 2:22 pm
I believe in the healing power of simple Greene!
September 22, 2005 at 2:23 pm
Shoot. We didn’t get the win.
September 22, 2005 at 2:25 pm
Why Ben Johnson sent up rather than Nady?
September 22, 2005 at 2:25 pm
Well at least they put up a fight in the end. Showin’ that swagger. Watching this game closely, I say chalk up the weak offensive showing to bad luck and great (lucky?) defense. Eaton’s un-dominance is worth a grunt of frustration, but that’s nothing new.
September 22, 2005 at 2:29 pm
Bruce, why not Nady?
Bochy: I found out that he’s been again getting involved something untowardly that’s detrimental to the clubhouse…my clubhouse.
September 22, 2005 at 4:24 pm
And Cordero doesn’t blow the game today. Nats win 2-0, magic number down to 6.
September 22, 2005 at 4:53 pm
Vintage Maddux today … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=250922108 … won’t be too many more of these, me thinks!
September 22, 2005 at 6:48 pm
Someone mentioned that there was a significant problem with the offense… they are third in the NL in EQA (which has the highest correlation with run scoring of any offensive rate stat).
September 22, 2005 at 7:03 pm
Hey GY, et al … here’s a pretty intense site for “scouting reports” … http://www.calleaguers.com/KottarasGeorge05.html … and it also has some video! WAY COOL!
September 22, 2005 at 7:28 pm
As Richard alluded to, our offense is much better than our pitching.
If anyone wants to look at the road stats on espn.com, our road offense is among the league leaders. Our pitching is in the middle of the league of just below.
Petco Park is what makes our pitching seem pretty good and our hitting seem weak. But that is not the case.
Other than signing Giles, which is probably not going to happen, no matter what — the offseason priorities need to be starting pitching, starting pitching and starting pitcing.