Sorry for the delay, folks. Bit of a crisis at work this morning. Servers have a way of crashing at the most inopportune times.

I’ve got a lot on my plate at the moment, so this will be my last posting till probably the middle of next week. In the meantime, you’ve always got…

Blogs, Blogs, Blogs

Okay, just one blog but it’s a good one: Bronx Banter. Check it out when you have a moment, and tell Alex I sent ya.

Spambots

I’m just including this e-mail link so spambots pick it up: Admin@MostWantedDomains.biz. This guy basically goes around snagging domain names that people have forgotten to re-register and then tries to extort money out of them. Read about one experience at Baseball Primer. Scum.

Padres Top 20 Prospects: 1-10

I guess if I were really clever, I’d have led off with #10 and worked my way to #1. But since I’m not, and since it’s no great surprise who #1 is, here they are. Enjoy.

#1
Khalil Greene, SS
DOB: 10/21/79
Acq: draft 2002, rd 1; Clemson U.
Ht: 5’11″ Wt: 210

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
Eug    A-   37  .270  .297  .400   5   6   0   0
LkE    A+  183  .317  .368  .525  12  33   0   0

Greene immediately shoots to the top of this list. There really isn’t anything not to like about him. Yeah, his plate discipline was a bit shaky in his first exposure to pro ball and he’s not going to be a stellar defensive shortstop, but that’s nitpicking. Although he’s not particularly big, Greene is strong and generates good power to the gaps with his compact swing. He projects as a middle-of-the-order offensive threat in the vein of Rich Aurilia (the guy who hits .280 with 20+ homers a year, not the 2001 freak version). In the field, what Greene lacks in quickness and arm strength, he makes up for in instincts and quick release. He’ll never be mistaken for Ozzie Smith, or even Ozzie Guillen, but he should be an average defensive shortstop or perhaps slightly better. Greene probably has enough bat to withstand a move out of the middle infield, but with the Padres lacking any other legitimate options at shortstop within the system, he will be given every opportunity to prove that he can play the position at the highest level.

#2
Mark Phillips, LHP
DOB: 12/30/81
Acq: draft 2000, rd 1; Hanover (Pa.) HS
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 205

Club  Lvl     IP    H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
LkE    A+  148.1  123   9  94  156  4.19

Phillips continues to tantalize and frustrate with his combination of overpowering stuff and inconsistent command. Arms like his are seldom found on left-handers; he throws easy low- to mid-90s gas and has a solid breaking ball. But at times he simply cannot find the strike zone with any of his pitches. If he can learn to be more efficient with his pitches and avoid the lapses in control that have plagued him thus far, Phillips has the chance to be a front-end power lefty in the mold of Mark Langston or Al Leiter. But for now, he’s still a work in progress with very high upside.

#3
Xavier Nady, LF
DOB: 11/14/78
Acq: draft 2000, rd 2; U. of California
Ht: 6’1″ Wt: 185

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  169  .278  .382  .580  28  40   2   0
Por   AAA  315  .283  .329  .422  20  60   0   1

Thanks to injuries, Nady has lost some of his shine as a prospect. He spent the first half of 2002 repeating the Cal League so he could play every day in a league with a full-time DH while he recovered from off-season wrist surgery. Although his plate discipline deteriorated significantly on his jump to Triple-A, there are reasons for optimism. First, the pitching in the PCL is a lot better than that in the Cal League, and it’s not surprising to see even a very good prospect struggle on first exposure to better competition. Second, Nady finished the year strong; progress within a season is always a good sign. Third, in the process of skipping a level he also was moved to left field and did at least a passable job out there. On the downside, in addition to his mediocre overall numbers at Portland, Nady had to leave the AFL early due to injury. This is getting to be a pattern with him, and his inability to stay healthy is the one thing that stands between him and a productive big-league career. If he can lick the injuries and build on what he accomplished during the final two months of last season, expect Nady to arrive in San Diego sometime around the All-Star break. Although he may not put up big numbers right away, he’ll eventually be a force in the middle of the order. The peak of .280 with 30+ homers I projected for him last year still sounds about right to me.

#4
Tagg Bozied, 1B
DOB: 07/24/79
Acq: draft 2001, rd 3; U. of San Francisco
Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 215

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  282  .298  .377  .546  35  60   3   4
Mob    AA  234  .214  .268  .389  16  43   1   0

Bozied is similar in many respects to Xavier Nady. Like Nady, he is a converted third baseman with loads of power. The main differences are that Bozied is more of a pull hitter and isn’t quite as agile in the field. After a hot start in his pro debut at Elsinore, Bozied struggled in his first exposure to Double-A but made progress as the season went on. He followed that up with a record-setting performance in the AFL. Bozied’s swing can get a bit long at times, and he’s not the most graceful defender, but seems to know what he’s doing at the plate. If he can build off his success in the AFL and make a strong showing at Mobile, Bozied could arrive in San Diego in September and compete for a job in 2004. His upside is a solid #5 type hitter in the mold of, say, Jay Buhner.

#5
Jake Gautreau, 2B
DOB: 11/14/79
Acq: draft 2001, rd 1; Tulane U.
Ht: 6’0″ Wt: 190

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  371  .286  .358  .426  42  86   2   3

Gautreau played third base at Tulane, but due to the glut of corner infielders in the organization, he moved to second base in his first full season as a pro. Gautreau possesses a smooth left-handed swing that generates doubles power. His stroke sometimes gets a little long, and he doesn’t have the lift that a classic home run hitter has. His statistical record at this point is comparable to those of Brad Fullmer and Corey Koskie at a similar stage of development. Defensively, Gautreau is not a terrific second baseman, nor is he likely to become one. He doesn’t have a great deal of range, but his hands are sure and he does a passable job of turning the double play. Being a former third baseman, he also has a very strong arm. It’s easy to look at Gautreau’s 2002 season and be disappointed. However, when considering that he was learning a more demanding defensive position and battling a serious intestinal ailment (he hit .306/.368/.480 before coming down with it, .230/.333/.289 after), his season should be considered a success. Gautreau still has work to do before he’s ready for prime time. He needs to get more comfortable at second base, be a little more patient at the plate, and stay healthy. If he can do those things at Mobile this year, with Mark Loretta’s contract up at the end of the year, look for Gautreau to make a push for a starting gig in San Diego when the new ballpark opens in 2004.

#6
Justin Germano, RHP
DOB: 08/06/82
Acq: draft 2000, rd 13; Claremont HS (Calif.)
Ht: 6’2″ Wt: 195

Club  Lvl     IP    H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
FtW    A   155.2  166  14  19  119  3.18
LkE    A+   19.0   12   1   5   18  0.95

Germano was named the Padres’ Minor-League Pitcher of the Year in 2002. The lanky right-hander from just north of San Diego experienced success at two Class-A levels last season. Germano doesn’t throw particularly hard (though he’s no John Stephens, either); his calling card is pinpoint control, as demonstrated by the Saberhagenesque 24 walks issued in 174 2/3 innings at Ft. Wayne and Lake Elsinore. In 30 starts (including the playoffs), he walked more than two batters in a game just once. The downside here is that at the tender age of 19, Germano worked 190+ innings if you count his playoff starts. That’s a very heavy workload for a kid his age. There’s a lot to like about Germano: he throws strikes, he has a good idea how to pitch, and he’s projectable; not all that different from Jake Peavy at a similar stage. But he was pushed pretty hard last year. The hope here is that his efficiency and mechanics will keep this from leading to trouble down the line. If Germano can avoid injuries, he could develop into a solid middle-rotation guy. He probably doesn’t have the upside of Peavy but he could follow in the footsteps of, say, Brian Lawrence. Who wouldn’t like that?

#7
Josh Barfield, 2B
DOB: 12/17/82
Acq: draft 2001, rd 4; Klein HS (Spring, Tex.)
Ht: 5’11″ Wt: 165

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
FtW    A   536  .306  .340  .403  26  105  26   8
LkE    A+   23  .087  .120  .087   1    4   0   0

Barfield enjoyed a solid showing in his first exposure to full-season ball. He runs very well and has some juice in his bat. There is talk that Barfield will move to the outfield at higher levels but for now he’s at second base. On offense, his main weakness is his plate discipline. With his speed, if he can learn to get on base more often, he could be a potent leadoff man. Right now the biggest things working in Barfield’s favor are his athleticism and his extreme youth: he doesn’t turn 21 until after the 2003 season. Keep an eye on him at Elsinore. If he learns to draw a few walks, he could be something.

#8
Ben Howard, RHP
DOB: 01/15/79
Acq: draft 1997, rd 2; Central Merry HS (Jackson, Tenn.)
Ht: 6’2″ Wt: 190

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Mob    AA  33.0  26   2  16  30  2.81
Por   AAA  45.0  47  10  15  25  6.20
SD     NL  10.2  13   4  14  10  9.28

It was an up-and-down year for Howard. On the positive side, after making the transition from thrower to pitcher in 2001, he made his big-league debut in April. On the negative side, his control problems resurfaced and he battled injuries in what in some ways was a wasted season. When healthy Howard throws mid-90s heat (his velocity was down when he was with the big club) and a good breaking ball. With the glut of options available to the Padres, Howard most likely will start the season at Portland, where he can get regular work and hopefully rediscover the success he enjoyed at Elsinore two years ago. There are a lot of good young arms in the system breathing down Howard’s neck. Although his window of opportunity as a starter is much smaller now than it was a year ago, Howard still has the stuff to succeed. He’s not out of the Padres plans, but he isn’t exactly on the front burner either. Howard is a power pitcher worth watching, although his future may lie in the bullpen.

#9
Mike Bynum, LHP
DOB: 03/20/78
Acq: draft 1999, rd 1; U. of North Carolina
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Mob    AA  33.0  17   0   7  29  0.82
Por   AAA  41.0  36   6   7  35  3.51
SD     NL  27.1  33   3  15  17  5.27

Bynum was one of the more polished college pitchers in his draft class and was expected to be pretty well established by now. But thanks to injuries, that hasn’t happened. After a wasted 2001, in which he pitched just 84 innings at Double-A, Bynum re-established himself this past season. He works with a low-90s fastball, and the slider is still filthy. Bynum began the year by dominating at Mobile before moving up to Portland, where he enjoyed further success. The fact that his strikeout-to-walk ratio didn’t break down on moving to the higher level is particularly encouraging. Working primarily out of the bullpen for the first time in his career, Bynum struggled in his initial trip to the Show. Given the new role and the small sample, I’m not putting too much stock in his performance in San Diego other than to look at it as a learning experience. Bynum finished his season with eight starts in the AFL, where he put up numbers comparable to what he’d done at Triple-A. It’s tough to get a read on Bynum right now because of his lost 2001 and because he spent so little time in any one place in 2002. He’ll be 25 this coming season. Like Ben Howard, Bynum is still in the Padres’ plans but he’s on the verge of being passed in favor of younger options. He has the stuff to be a solid #3 or #4 starter but may end up in the bullpen if he stays in the organization.

#10
Eric Cyr, LHP
DOB: 09/11/79
Acq: draft 1998, rd 30; Seminole (Okla.) JC
Ht: 6’4″ Wt: 200

Club  Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO    ERA
Mob    AA  72.1  62   6  34  65   3.24
Por   AAA  14.1  14   0  10  11   3.14
SD     NL   6.0   6   0   6   4  10.50

Putting his well-documented off-field troubles behind him, Cyr continued his ascent and ended up working out of the bullpen for the Padres after Alan Embree was traded to Boston late in the season. Featuring a low-90s fastball, Cyr appeared to lose some of the aggressiveness that made him so successful in 2001. His secondary pitches aren’t strong enough that he can afford to have subpar command, which is what happened in 2002. With the plethora of young arms in the system, and given his history of injuries (Cyr spent time on the shelf again this season–shoulder tendinitis), if Cyr is to make it with the Padres, it’s probably as a reliever. Out of the bullpen he can concentrate on throwing two pitches for strikes and possibly become a power lefty a la Embree, Arthur Rhodes, or Mike Remlinger. Look for Cyr to get more work at Portland as a reliever before getting the call perhaps as soon as late May.