Happy Thanksgiving
Wed, Nov 23, 2005
by Geoff Young
I picked this up at one of my favorite antique shops in Temecula. On one level, it’s stupid fun; but on another, it’s a good reminder to do the things you like (and by extension, be with the folks you like). And in my book, if you’re able to accomplish those goals, then you have every reason to be thankful.
I hope you and yours have a very happy Thanksgiving. Eat well, and enjoy time with friends and family. And if you can’t take any more football or the ramblings of a certain uncle on your mother’s side who shall remain nameless, feel free to swing by Ducksnorts and talk about whatever’s on your mind. I’m off until December 1 but I’ll be checking the comments, so if you have any ideas on topics we should discuss this off-season, maybe throw those in there as well.
See you on the flip side…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 23, 2005 at 10:53 pm
I mentioned to a friend that the Padres should consider going after Manny Ramirez.
We could give up a few solid prospects (Barfield, Guzman, plus…) and we could actually afford him.
Assuming we don’t re-sign Giles ($7m), Hoffy (5m), and Hernandez (5m), we have $17m coming off the books, Manny costs $18 per… Plus next year we have Klesko coming off the books.
That would give us an outfield of Manny-Cameron-Johnson.
I DO NOT think we’re players in this trade proposal, but I think we should be checking on the cost doing business…
November 25, 2005 at 4:10 pm
I was thinking along similar lines Peter. But I think the Red Sox would take Klesko back in that deal, if he would go (they need a 1B). Or even Chan Ho. They know they’ll have to eat some salary or pay a big chunk of Manny no matter what so why not dump some of our “sludge” in a deal for Manny?
Roberts, Aki, Barfield, Burroughs (or a pitching prospect) and Klesko/Park for Manny and Wells?
If Giles and Ramon walk and aren’t replaced with quality players this will be the worst offensive team in the league next year.
November 25, 2005 at 5:16 pm
Do the Red Sox want any of the players we would be offering them? Because that would be kinda key for the deal. I mean, I’d LOVE to get rid of Roberts, Klesko, and Burroughs, but they’d be dead weight for the Red Sox, and I don’t think Josh Barfield and Aki offset that. Besides, who other than Manny will be on base to maximize Manny’s value?
Why didn’t we go after Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, which would have at least attempted to address areas of need for the club, and who were obtained on the relative cheap by Boston (we could have also gotten Mota). Assuming that Mota and or Lowell rebound even half way, that trade was an absolute steal. Seriously, what would the Padre equivalents of that trade be? Kotteras? Barfield? Some young pitchers? Is our farm system that depleted that we couldn’t even make on offer?
November 25, 2005 at 6:53 pm
No idea what the Red Sox front office is thinking of course but there’s a lot of interest in Burroughs and Aki for Wells at the Sons of Sam Horn message board and Klesko would fill their 1B hole, but I doubt he would ok going to Boston.
I agree that Beckett is a guy we should have been going after. The prospects Boston gave up are pretty good, supposedly Hanley Ramirez is a stud but I doubt he’s much better than Barfield.
I think Lowell will bounce back to close to his previous average season, which will make this a great deal for the Sox. It does get frustrating seeing other teams raiding the Marlins while we have to contemplate replacing Giles, Hernandez and Hoffman with Jacque Jones, Brad Ausmus and moving everyone up one spot in the bullpen. I’d even be ok with Juan Pierre but it looks like he’s going to the Cubs.
I think Hoffman’s price just went up:
According to the New York Daily News, the Blue Jays have agreed to terms with B.J. Ryan on a five-year, $47 million contract.
From Rotoworld
November 26, 2005 at 8:38 am
Beckett would have looked great in a Padres uniform. Unfortunately they don’t have anyone in the system that compares well to Hanley Ramirez. Still, there aren’t too many that I would’ve held out of a trade for Beckett.
On the Wells front, I can’t find this corroborated anywhere but one source thinks Aki is out of the deal and the Red Sox are looking at Padres minor leaguers now:
http://highandtight.blogspot.c.....adres.html
As for Hoffman, the contracts being handed out to relievers this winter are insane. B.J. Ryan is a good pitcher but he also could be the new Randy Myers. Why would anyone lock up a reliever for 5 years? Early prediction: The Blue Jays will spend much of 2009 and 2010 begging teams to take Ryan as part of a package.
On another note, the NY Daily News is reporting that the Mets have offered “similar three-year packages worth $5 million-to-$6 million per year” to Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina. If the Mets really are the Padres’ stiffest competition in that market, I wonder if there’s a chance Ramon might return? I’d gladly give him 3 yrs/$18M.
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld.....261484.htm
November 26, 2005 at 9:10 am
I agree with Geoff. Call it the Ausmus Tax. Anthing to prevent the return of Brad.
I’d be fine with Olivo, though, assuming it is a stopgap until Kotteras arrives. Hell, Olivo might even continue his production from the second half of the season. It seems Seattle is a depressing place to play right now, and everybody there is underperforming.
I still think Hanley Ramirez is probably a bit too hyped. Again, if he was THAT good, why sign Renteria to a long term deal? I think he’s probably toolsy, got tons of “upside” and hasn’t quite converted that into actual performance along a timeline that satisfied the Sox. I bet Barfield isn’t as far off a comparison as it might seem at first glance. It would have been nice to see Beckett and Peavy throw on back to back days is all. Now what? David Wells again? I’m not buying this, and if we give up prospects or Aki, who is still a bargain at his current contract, I’m really not buying it. Here is a thought…perhaps we could get creative and try to lure away Youkilis. Probably won’t happen, but he’d be a nice addition to this lineup. Maybe Burroughs, Klesko (won’t accept the trade, but bear with me), Otsuka for Wells and Youkilis? Throw in a minor leaguer?
November 26, 2005 at 11:15 am
I don’t think we have interest in Ausmus (though I’ve thought that before and heard we were looking hard at him - I think the media just looks at his San Diego residence and reports what they think rather than what’s happening…
As for Hoffman’s price, “I think Hoffman’s price just went up” - I saw that too and thought the same thing (Good!). I don’t dislike Hoffy, but I’m starting to WANT him to sign elsewhere….
Hoffy’s a guy who admitted that he’s more effective when a “Save” is on the line, because the hitters are more aggressive. In his own words, when a “Save” isn’t on the line, hitters are more patient and his changeup is less effective. So if we have a closer who is only good for 40 “good” innings plus 20-30 crappy ones, I, for one, am not willing to pay more than $5m per (for 2 years) for him.
As for my Manny talk, keep in mind, the more $$$ from Boston (or, the more salary they take on - Klesko, Park, whomever) the more prospects he costs (Barfield, Hensley, Johnson, Kottares, etc.).
I hope you all had a Great Thanksgiving!
November 26, 2005 at 2:32 pm
Reality Check … here’s what John Sickels and his readers say …
The readers of MinorLeagueBall.com have awarded the Washington Nationals with the 2005 S.S. Poseidon Award, honoring the Nationals as having the worst, most disasterous farm system in baseball.
The Nationals garnered 29% of the votes cast. Second place went to the New York Yankees with 24%. Third place went to the San Diego Padres with 12%, with the Cincinnati Reds right behind at 11%.
… ug … that’s not a good list for us to be on … but I can’t really argue with it …
November 27, 2005 at 7:30 am
No offense Lynch, but I’d care more what BA or Sickles says (and BA a LOT more than Sickles) than how Sickles readers voted.
Many of my more astute readers know I have a source within BA. I’ve been told that they were intially underwhelmed by our most recent draft, but are becoming more and more impressed.
Another juicy prospect tidbit, I can’t say who, but we will have a new #1 prospect this year too (and keep in mind, last year’s #1, Josh Barfield, didn’t exactly regress)… This means we now have several top guys (where last year’s #1 was obvious and lonely)…
November 27, 2005 at 8:16 am
Matthew: Don’t know if we went after Beckett or not, but from what I’ve read on Baseball America, the Sox gave up way more than we could have. It’s not just Ramirez, but they also gave up two top pitching prospects. BA put those three guys from Boston into the top five prospects in Florida’s system right off the bat. I don’t think we could have done that with our system.
Geoff: Insane? That might be putting it mildly. Not only did the Jays give a reliever 5 years, they gave a 30 year old reliever 5 years. Not saying 30 is all that old anymore, but it’s not as if they just locked him up for his prime, more like the last couple of years of his prime and then the first three of his declining years (IF they’re lucky).
November 27, 2005 at 8:52 am
Seems some comments in this thread were lost during All-Baseball.com’s transition to a new server. I’m having our tech folks look into this. I apologize for the inconvenience.
November 27, 2005 at 9:55 am
I got a sister-in-law going through devorce and that is all we talked about for days on end. Well, with enough red wine, you can tolerate anything. Just returned from Tucson and TGinh. Fun time all around and the drive it not too bad. Coming out of El Centro yesterday through the past was white knockle all the way as the wind was howling and the motorhomes struggling to get up the hill. TGing weekend is big with the Dessert crowd and all their toys. Looked fun but real windy.
Tucson was a bit disappointing, not really a town center, although around UofA its nice. If you do get out there, hit the Desert Museum which is cool. Has many walking trails that give an nice experience of the dessert.
HAve a good one, Jeff.
Go Padres
November 27, 2005 at 10:08 am
test
November 27, 2005 at 12:48 pm
test 2
November 27, 2005 at 12:59 pm
Looks like comments are back. Thanks to the crack A-B/MVN tech staff for that.
PF: Good BA info. I’m really liking our draft last year as well, and it doesn’t surprise me that Barfield won’t be #1 this year. We got a good influx of talent in June.
Programming note: I said earlier that I’d be off till Dec. 1 but I’ve got something ready for tomorrow. Here’s this week’s schedule:
Mon: 2005 in Review - Left Field
Wed: Boatload o’ Links
Thu: Ducksnorts FAQ
November 27, 2005 at 1:34 pm
Mets offer Wagner 3yr/$30M:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....BHeadlines
The market for relievers is just plain silly.
November 27, 2005 at 2:14 pm
Does 3yrs/$30m cut it (for Wagner; a top closer) now that Ryan (who may be, but doesn’t have Wagner’s experience) got 5/47?
Let Hoffy go!
November 27, 2005 at 2:22 pm
Something else to think about…
Wily Mo Pena to Reds: Play me or trade me
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Stauffer & Barfield for Pena?
OF of Pena-Camron-Johnson
Eliminates 2B plan for next year, but I think Pena is an impact player; worth the cost…
November 27, 2005 at 4:13 pm
Can someone explain to me how Billy Wagner and BJ Ryan are worth that much but Ramon Hernandez was “only” offered 3 years at 5-6 million per by the Mets? Isn’t an above average catcher over 130 games worth more than a well above average closer for 60 or 70 innings?
And doesn’t 3 years at 6 million per sound pretty reasonable for Hernandez? Granted he’ll probably sign for more but I could almost stomach Giles leaving if Ramon were resigned for that.
I’m trying to stay optimistic but it sure looks like the Padres plan going forward is to keep payroll way down, bring in guys like Castilla and probably Jones in the mistaken (?) belief that fans are dumb enough to be happy with crappy ballplayers as long as they’re local, and shoot for .500 while hoping the rest of the division stays in the toilet.
November 27, 2005 at 7:22 pm
Apparently baseball management/front offices believe the closer hype spouted by espn, et al.
November 27, 2005 at 9:01 pm
Peter: I’m not so sure Pena is an impact player. He’s got pop, but he doesn’t walk and strikes out a ton. I’d rather go after Kearns, but I don’t know if the Reds will move him. But, if the choice is between Pena and Jacque Jones, I’ll take Pena. Maybe we could buy low (or, at least, lower than Barfield and Stauffer). Also, isn’t Loretta our 2B plan for next year, or am I missing something?
November 27, 2005 at 10:17 pm
“Also, isn’t Loretta our 2B plan for next year, or am I missing something?” - Yes, I meant ‘07…
Pena has SICK power. He was injured much of ‘05 and only played 100ish games. Has enough range to play CF. Has a cannon arm. You’re right, he doesn’t walk as much as we’d like (he’s not a perfect player), but he is a major talent.
November 27, 2005 at 10:29 pm
Point taken. He would be a nice addition to the line-up, and I forgot about the arm. I think you might be a bit high on him, but he’d significantly improve us. Perhaps, again, we could offer something less than Staufer and Barfield, as I like all Barfields and we need all the pitching we can get.
November 27, 2005 at 10:47 pm
Point taken. He would be a nice addition to the line-up, and I forgot about the arm. I think you might be a bit high on him, but he’d significantly improve us. Perhaps, again, we could offer something less than Staufer and Barfield, as I like all Barfields and we need all the pitching we can get.