How High Hoffy?
Tue, Nov 29, 2005
by Geoff Young
In the comments to yesterday’s review of left field, Didi informed us that the New York Mets had signed Billy Wagner to a very silly deal. With Wagner headed to the Big Apple for a reported 4 years/$43M, on top of the already large wads of cash thrown at the likes of Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry, I can’t help but wonder what the impact on Trevor Hoffman’s price will be.
If you’re keeping score at home, here are the relievers who have signed so far:
| Pitcher | Age | Yrs | Amt | G | IP | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Eyre | 34 | 3 | $11M | 86 | 68.1 | 2.63 | 8.56 | 2.50 | .200 | .286 | .288 |
| Chad Harville | 29 | 1 | $525k | 45 | 45.1 | 4.77 | 7.15 | 1.33 | .256 | .371 | .452 |
| Bobby Howry | 32 | 3 | $12M | 79 | 73.0 | 2.47 | 5.92 | 3.00 | .191 | .237 | .277 |
| B.J. Ryan | 30 | 5 | $47M | 69 | 70.1 | 2.43 | 12.80 | 3.85 | .208 | .284 | .288 |
| Billy Wagner | 34 | 4 | $43M | 75 | 77.2 | 1.51 | 10.88 | 4.35 | .165 | .229 | .265 |
| Trevor Hoffman | 38 | - | - | 60 | 57.2 | 2.97 | 8.43 | 4.50 | .235 | .277 | .344 |
| Age is as of July 1, 2006; stats are for 2005 season. | |||||||||||
Hoffman is older than Ryan and Wagner, and clearly nowhere near as dominant. Hoffman’s 2005 numbers aren’t all that much better than those of Eyre or Howry but of course he has 380 more career saves than they do combined.
I dunno, I’m thinking in the neighborhood of 2 years for $16M plus some kind of option for a third year. But who will pay him that kind of money? Can the Padres afford to go that high? And if they can, should they? Peter wonders if the Phillies might be interested.
And this doesn’t affect only Hoffman. Other open questions include:
- In the current market, how much is Rudy Seanez worth? He’s older than Eyre and Howry, and has an injury history. But he’s also a more dominant pitcher. Does 2 years for $7M sound about right, and should the Padres go that high? The real value in Seanez last year was identifying him as a guy who might be worth significantly more than the $550k he made, which in fact he was.
- Who are this winter’s versions of Seanez and Chris Hammond? We’re looking for guys who will come cheap but who have upside. Harville is a good example, although his track record is pretty mixed. I like Hector Carrasco, but I fear he’s no longer under anyone’s radar after the season he had. Is Chad Fox worth a gamble? His profile - high strikeout rates, can’t stay healthy - is similar to that of Seanez. How about Jay Powell? He used to be pretty good. Same with Felix Rodriguez, and he’s coming off a down year. Heck, Paul Quantrill did a decent job during his brief stay in San Diego; I wouldn’t mind seeing him return.
What do you think?
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November 29, 2005 at 8:15 am
More tidbits I found after posting…
Yanks supposedly have offered Kyle Farnsworth 3 yrs/$15M:
http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_.....26463.html
http://highandtight.blogspot.c.....dness.html
Phillies are looking at Tom Gordon (who has been offered 2 yrs/$10M by the Yanks but is looking for a third year):
http://www.ballssticksstuff.co.....lan_c.html
It’s a madhouse!
November 29, 2005 at 8:47 am
One more, and then I promise I’ll shut up. U-T reports that Cleveland, Atlanta, and Boston all are looking at Hoffman. Also, Eaton to Texas remains a possibility, as does moving Aki for ???
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
November 29, 2005 at 9:22 am
Keep in mind with Cleveland (hat tip: Paul R.) Cleveland just missed beating the ChiSox in the AL Central and they blew a rather high number of games early in the season. Cleveland thinks of itself as an upper-tier team (I think of them that way as well) and has some $$$ to spend. Getting the short-term version of Hoffy (can-save) might be worth the time/money invested if they feel that’s the missing link to a WS-run (it may very-well be).
I also like PQ coming back (if not too much $$$) & I’m a Chad Fox fan as well…
November 29, 2005 at 9:47 am
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2234566
McAdams write a summary article that doesn’t add much as far as his title is concerned, “New GMs thrown into the fire,” but the article does mention several players who may be available (Abreau, Burrell, Glaus (3-way swap so AZ doesn’t know it’s trading him to us), Tampa OFers: Huff, Crawford, Gathwright, Gomes, & Baldelli, Soriano) it is definitly an interesting market.
With the free agent market what it is (isn’t) some creativity could go a LONG way…
November 29, 2005 at 9:52 am
MUCH speculation up here that the A’s signing of Esteban Loaiza signals the imminent departure of Barry Zito (recall how they dealt Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder with one year left on their contracts). Zito’s final year is $8.5MM. The A’s now have seven nominal starting pitchers and are looking for a bat, preferably RH. I’m not sure what the Padres could offer (maybe someone from Texas if they deal Eaton?). Plus, there’s the risk of trading for Zito without signing him long term then losing him after only one season. But, damn, pretty nice young righty-lefty duo of Peavy-Zito, eh?
November 29, 2005 at 11:01 am
on the topic of silly relief-pitcher valuation, MLB.com is handing out an award for “setup man of the year.” To me, that’s as silly as awarding the best #2 starter or the best 4th outfielder of the year.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....p;c_id=mlb
November 29, 2005 at 11:12 am
On a completely unrelated note:
“Please come back,” Jim Thome at his introductary press conference, pleading to Paul Konerko…
Ironic isn’t it. How Jim Thome spurned less money to stay at home (Cleveland) for bigger dollars in Philly now is trying to convince a fellow player NOT to do what he did… WITHOUT saying what he did was wrong.
I wouldn’t have a problem if he said, “Philly was great, but my heart was is Cleveland. Paul, don’t make the same mistake I did…” But he didn’t say that.
Do as I say, not as I do…
November 29, 2005 at 11:37 am
Interesting evaluation on BJ Ryan’s contract:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....-worth-it/
November 29, 2005 at 12:30 pm
From Rotoworld:
“The Blue Jays have offered free agent Brian Giles a five-year, $55 million contract, according to the Toronto Sun.”
November 29, 2005 at 1:10 pm
Five years for Giles? I’m running out of synonyms for insane.
November 29, 2005 at 1:15 pm
Wow. I used to think that Ricciardi was a smart guy. Maybe, I was wrong. Or maybe he went tripping the light fantastic.
November 29, 2005 at 1:23 pm
I would give Chad Fox a chance. Probably would pass on Quantrill other than as an inning eater but definitely not on close games.
What about Dotel or Luis Ayala? Or Mantei?
November 29, 2005 at 2:20 pm
Dotel and Mantei are great ideas, but I wonder if their past experience as proven closers will drive their price up despite recent injuries?
November 29, 2005 at 2:24 pm
Can anyone help me out with this? Toronto had 14th worst record, the X worst teams do not lose their 1st round pic regardless of signing free agents or not..
X=13?
***
Mantei’s injury woos scare me. I like Dotel (a lot).
November 29, 2005 at 3:09 pm
You mean “woes,” right?
Also, I’d like to see Dotel in a Padre uni, too.
November 29, 2005 at 4:35 pm
I’m a writer not a speller
Yes “woes”
LOL
Last year Dotel said he’d play in Oakland for next to nothing in thanks for the way they handled his injury situation. Now that he may be on the market, it is interesting.
What I don’t want to see, is any non-major signings before Dec. 19 (the day teams have to offer arbitration) it’s not that I’m UNWILLING to give up a draft pick, but for a medium-tier player I want to be certain of what’s happening before I commit to that.
November 29, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Unrelated, Dennis Tankersley has a new home:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....BHeadlines
Remember when folks were debating whether he or Jake Peavy was the better prospect?
November 29, 2005 at 10:57 pm
A Yankee friend fan of mine (don’t ask) used to refer to the Quantrill - Gordon - Rivera sequence as “Quangormo, the three headed monster.” Another friend and I began using “Quanlinehoffy” to refer to, well, you know who. Didn’t really work since it was something more akin to Akilinehoffy or something, but whatever. My point being, in a silly little way, I think “Brink” ends the whole thing better. But what would the current version be? Somthing Akibrink. Do I waste too much time thinking about this to not remind myself that we have one number one starter and seven number five starters?
November 29, 2005 at 10:58 pm
I agree with Geoff that the bullpen is the place to take inexpensive flyers on high risk, high reward, relatively inexpensive guys. One of the things that Towers has done best in his tenure is fill in pieces that make a solid bullpen. If they can add a Dotel or Fox or Mantei inexpensively, I think that Towers whould probably see if the inflated market for prospects can make Hammond or Otsuka worth more in the trade market than they are to the Padres bullpen.
Also, there’s no way that the Pad’s should go to either 3 years or more than 8mil/year for Hoffy and I don’t think that there is much chance that he will sign for less (unless he really wants to be on the same team as his brother).
November 29, 2005 at 11:25 pm
Free Agent Relievers
There are some intriuging guys out there. I particularly like, if the price is right (caveat to the below–I’m doing this without looking at stats):
Ugueth Urbina (if he’d sign for incentives and is not in jail)
Jay Witasick
Hector Carrasco
Byung-Hyun Kim
Shingo Takatsu
Rudy Seanez
Mike Myers
Bob Wickman
Shigetoshi Hasegawa (only if the defense figures to be very good)
Elmer Dessens (see above)
Non bullpen guys I’d gamble on if the price is right:
Richard Hidalgo
Eli Marrero
Rondell White
Eduardo Perez
Tony Armas, Jr.
Numerous utility infielders and backup catchers.
Other bullpen guys that might be worth a look at the back of the pen:
Jason Christiansen
Matt Mantei
Scott Sullivan
Alan Embree
Felix Rodriguez
Ricardo Rincon
Jeff Nelson
Doug Brocail
Steve Karsay
Tim Worrell
Chad Fox
Antonio Alfonseca
Paul Quantrill
Russ Springer
Roberto Hernandez
Terry Adams
Jose Mesa
Rick White
Chris Hammond
Joey Eischen
Hope this helps,
Medea’s Child
November 29, 2005 at 11:41 pm
Paul: Thanks for the thoughts. Yeah, with each reliever that signs, it seems less and less likely that Hoffman will return. This market really scares me.
MC: Some interesting names on your lists. I’ve liked Kim in the past but I’m not sure he has anything left. Takatsu isn’t a bad idea. His biggest problem last year was keeping the ball in the yard, which is less of a concern at Petco. I’m assuming Wickman will be prohibitively expensive in the current market.
Hidalgo is a guy I was advocating last winter. He or Rondell White wouldn’t be the worst fallbacks if Giles walks (pun intended). White in particular was a class act in his first tour with the Pads.
Armas is a fascinating idea. The guy hasn’t been healthy since 2002, but could grabbing him on the cheap be any worse than the Red Sox’ signing of Wade Miller last off-season? (Hint: Just because it didn’t work out for Boston doesn’t mean the logic behind the move was faulty.)
Good food for thought…
November 30, 2005 at 9:21 pm
Geoff,
I mentioned Hidalgo, White and even Eduardo Perez because with Klesko (and with Giles apparently staying), I think it would be a good idea to have a RH 1B/OF type.
Armas is a risk, but he can’t be a bigger risk than Miller (who I did think was a good gamble). Armas is always nicked up, but we KNEW Miller had a rotator cuff problem and opted for rehab over surgery. There’s no way Armas is a bigger risk than that. The key is price.
You’re not sure Kim has anything left? Look again. He had 4.86 ERA in Coors. He struck out 115 batters in 148 innings. 17 homers allowed in that many innings doesn’t seem horrible for a Colorado pitcher. His control deteriorated (71 BB, 14 HBP, 11 WP), but he’s only 27 years old and there are a fair amount of positives. I wouldn’t long term him, but I’d give the guy a shot.
http://www.baseballreference.com/k/kimby01.shtml
(In fact, until I looked it up, I didn’t even realize he’d done as well as he had. I may have to take a good look at him in several leagues depending on where he ends up)
Medea’s Child
November 30, 2005 at 10:05 pm
MC: Good points on Armas. It’s also worth noting that Colorado depresses strikeouts.