first pitch: 9:10 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Chris Young (9-5, 3.78 ERA) vs Orlando Hernandez (7-8, 4.97 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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I’m told that this series between the Padres and Mets has had a playoff atmosphere. Judging from the fact that I’ve gotten home just in time to see the opposing closer finish out the Pads the first two nights (including once courtesy of a Greggian call against Ben Johnson Wednesday night that denied Brian Giles a final at-bat), and will be arriving at work as the finale starts this morning, I’d say it feels exactly like the playoffs: My team can’t win, and I can’t watch them at least try.
Chris Young gets the call for the Pads, while Orlando Hernandez starts for the Mets. Hernandez is a perfect fit for this ballclub. He gets abused by lefties (.302/.365/.566), so the opposing manager stacks the lineup. Then, assuming Hernandez survives the first few innings, the Mets have four southpaws in their bullpen who can cause serious matchup problems late in the game. This is terrific roster management — Hernandez’ one weakness isn’t as easy to exploit in his current environment as it might be elswhere; in other words, he has more value to the Mets than just about anyone else.
Young, meantime, has made four starts since the All-Star break and gotten pounded. Opponents are hitting .329 against him, with seven home runs in just 19 innings. On the bright side, Young hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts away from Petco Park this season. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a road game since August 12, 2005, when he surrendered five at Yankee Stadium. Coincidentally, that’s the last time Young pitched in New York.
By the grace of Jeff Francis, who ended the Dodgers’ winning streak at 11 on Wednesday night, the Padres remain atop the NL West. With Los Angeles and Arizona both a half-game back, these truly are the dog days of summer. And even though it bothers me that the Pads haven’t done more to improve the club down the stretch, my irritation is mitigated somewhat by my belief that this team was built with 2007 in mind.
Let’s face it, there’s a real good chance that whoever wins the division will get stomped in the playoffs. I’d still rather be the team that gets stomped than a team watching them get stomped on television, if that makes any sense, but I guess the real question is how much of a sacrifice do you make for the right to get stomped?
The reason I would go with Meredith in that situation is I think he’s our best reliever right now. Brocail may have the hot hand, but Meredith is THE hot hand, with a 1.35 ERA and 10.6 VORP in only 20 innings. Plus, I think (and this is purely speculative) that younger players have a tougher time with weird deliveries, and we were facing Reyes, Chavez and Wright in the half-inning. I think they would have more trouble with Meredith than a guy that simply tries to go fastball/slider.
Not to argue over Brocail, since the Pads have more problems than just him, but out of those 8 apperances, only three of them were wins, two extra inning affairs where he was the last guy used that day, and the other was the Peavy win over LA. Otherwise, every other game he appeared in, we were being blown out or already losing. I should have made my overall point clearler: I wouldn’t be, and the Padres shouldn’t be bringing in Brocail in high-leverage situations, which today would be a tie game in the 7th facing the top of the Met’s lineup.
That’s exactly how I feel, Bruce. I sure wouldn’t let 10 innings override a career’s worth of mediocrity, either. Why the hell did we hang onto Linebrink if we’re not going to wring the most use out of him?
Not to pile on my friend LM, but I gotta agree about Brocail. Impressive stats recently, which normally I would also tout. But, having seen him at a game last week and a few times on the tube, to me he looks like he is doing a highwire act getting anyone out.
Re:29
Yeah, pretty much. The Padres are second rate. It’s not fluky that the Pads don’t hit with runners in scoring position. They have a bunch of bad hitters. Adrian Gonzalez is great, but who else? Dave Roberts is a pretty passable player (but can’t hit lefties), Giles sucks, Piazza good for 3 out of every five games (meanwhile the Mets record 48 stolen bases against us), Cameron is hot for a week, then cold for 2 months, Barfield is a rookie hitting .285 with crappy OBP and OPS, we don’t have a 3B or 7 hitter, and our SS cannot stay healthy for a full season…ever. We have no hitters at the top in any offensive category. Second rate.
I think Bruce raised an important issue with regards to the mental makeup of the team. Sandy Alderson has stated that they didn’t expect to be this competitive this year, that they are geared for 2007. How does that attitude affect the players? I’m sure they were just as worked up as we were over possibly bringing in a quality 3B and nothing happened (no offense to Todd Walker). Combine that with the Dodgers going out and making some big moves and the laid back management style and it’s not hard to see why there’s been a let-down here and the Dodgers have been on a tear.
I’m not saying management is wrong either, maybe looking to 2007 is really the best option. But there is a mental component to all sports and I think the 2007 has affected the team this year.
Not sure what’s so great ahead of us, either. 2007 is probably going to look a lot like 2006. Oh wait, I’m sure we’ll go get David Wright and Barry Zito with the 25 million we have coming off the books. We’ll give the Mets Bellhorn, Ben Johnson, and Jared Wells for Wright.
Go chargers, yeah, they’ll probably go 8-8 too.
Brocail is frustrating. The stuff is still there but he can’t get guys out — it’s like watching Jim Brower earlier this year. Maybe Thompson can stay with the big club when Park comes off the DL tomorrow?
FF: I think 2007 will look a lot better than 2006 with Klesko and Park off the books, and Barfield and Gonzalez having a full year of experience under their belts. For as bad as the Pads are playing, I’ll still take the current cycle over 1999-2003 any day of the week.
Now now, friarfan, let’s not let this sweep get us too down. Remember, next year (at least) 3/4 of our infield will be entering their peak years, which (we hope) means even better production then we got from them this year. The same goes for Ben Johnson if he does start for us in left. Mike Cameron’s skill set is such that his plate production probably won’t change much. Knock on wood that Giles will turn things around; even if he doesn’t, he probably won’t be much worse than he is now. Peavy will probably be much more valuable next year than this year (again, knock on wood). Hensley and Young will be entering their peak, so hopefully the same from them if not better. So it seems to me that, especially because of the infield, we can only get better next year, not even counting any off-season pickups (like a third baseman). But maybe I’m just being too optimistic…
ff – DR “can’t hit lefties”??? For 2006, anyway, that statement isn’t supported by his stats … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6305/splits;_ylt=AhoRv8uA523BAnK5g2smgQOFCLcF … shows .848 OPS vs LHP and .798 vs RHP …
I usually post here when I’m feeling frustrated – and thus nearly all my posts seem, okay, are negative, but here’s something positive…
Much of what looks like sucky offense is park effects. The Padres are 5th in the NL in EQA (.265). We are better offensively than STL, PHIL, HOU, MIL, and every one in our division but those Dodgers. And we are only two points shy of being 2nd in EQA. In the whole league, only the Mets are decisively better with the bats than our Padres.
Though being swept is no fun, especially with the Dogers and D’backs RIGHT THERE on our ass, and we all would have liked a real answer at 3B, it’s still a bit too early to be chucking this team/manager/GM overboard. We are one 5-win week away from feeling good again.
re: mental makeup, we have been flat since the ASB. I think Trevor’s blown save after our big comeback in that first game back against the Braves after the break was huge for the team’s psyche. Win that game after a huge comeback and who knows where things are today. But ever since then, we have found every way to lose, the pitching has been bad, the hitting inconsistent at best, and the defense generally bad. Couple a few more blown saves and the releases of EY and Vinny with a lack of big move at the deadline that indicates some sort of plan to win and we have a low-confidence team that looks to be feeling the pressure. We really need to win the series in Houston before we face the West again, otherwise it could get much worse.
re: Brocail … continuing to play devil’s advocate … so why do *you* think Bochy put him in?
I’m not a Bochy fan at all … but I think he is the 10th-15th best baseball manager in the whole world … don’t you? So I’m betting he had a good reason …
better then 99-03… yeah, I guess. Raised expectations (aka: please let us not be to worst team in all of baseball AGAIN) can do that. But that doesn’t say much about your team. We need PLAYERS, not role-players. The only guys on this entire team I think should be untouchable are Cameron (world-class D), Adrian, and Peavy. I think you could upgrade at all the other spots. I just hope we do at a few.
Move Greene to 3B and get Tejada.
In all of this, can someone PLEASE justify Bellhorn’s roster spot? I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Aaron Boone should be available on the cheap and I just can’t imagine him being more useless than Bellhorn.
Hey MC317 … weren’t you here when we were screaming for Vinny to be let go and let Bellhorn play more? We asked to sleep in this bed … let’s do so for a while. Obviously Bellhorn’s below-average, but I’m not convinced yet that he’s below-replacement-level. I have no idea about what Aaron Boone would do … but “cheap” ain’t “free” … and I think that Leone and/or McAnulty would be better options than Boone, both short-term and medium-term. Long term (ie. 2007+), it’s obvious we need to get somebody to play 3B that’s better than anyone currently in the org.
Re 55: Well, non-friarfan, you couldn’t be more wrong. The Padres are league average in BA with RISP. Not getting one hit with RISP in two games is a statistical fluke.
Giles doesn’t even come close to sucking (3rd most Win Shares on team) although he is having a bad year by his standards; Roberts is hitting lefties this year (and has 2nd most Win Shares on team); Cameron is streaky, but valuable offensively and defensively compared to what the Padres have had in CF (most Win Shares on team); Barfield is just a rookie, who is providing more offensively than Loretta did last year; and Walker will likely be a far superior offensive 3B than Castilla or Bellhorn or Blum.
You ignore park effects, and you ignore the pitching problems in the second half.
The 2006 Padres are simply an inconsistent team, but one far more exciting than the 2005 version.
re: Bochy … and then again, it’s always possible that he simply made a mistake … easy to see in hingsight that, if he was waiting for the 8th inning to bring in Linebrink, that that wasn’t a good decision …
Wonder if Linebrink wasn’t available?
From the box score, I s’pose Williamson or Thompson woulda been better options than Brocail …
I hate to say it, but with only 6-7 weeks left in the season, I might be ready to jump on that Aaron Boone bandwagon. Aaron Boone can’t be any worse than Blumhorn/Walker at third. He could get hot at the right time, or he could continue to give us a similar level of production that we have had for the past year at third. He would at least provide us with a “real” “veteran” “glove-man” at third that would boost the teams spirits. Plus he’s a local boy. I don’t see why they haven’t picked him up already. If we did, I cut Bellhorn and platoon Walker with Barfield. I think Josh is close to hitting the wall and could use some rest here and there. He’s certainly in a funk at the moment, his laser-shot last night notwithstanding.
Bochy’s problem with his bullpen management is that very rarely does he deviate from his pattern. Linebrink’s his 8th inning guy, so he’s not coming in any earlier. We saw this last year when Liney was better than Aki but it was still Linebrink in the 7th and Aki in the 8th. Personally I would have brought in Williamson today to start the 7th (I thought that’s why we picked him up). But Bochy likes to manage his pen by rote first, then feel. He must have felt that Brocail was pitching better, and thought he could do the job. *shrug* who knows?
re:68
You’re right. Giles doesn’t suck compared to Bellhorn, Juan Pierre, or David Eckstein. For 10 mil…he sucks. How is it a good measure of quality when referencing win shares on this team? I mean, he’s contributing the 3rd most on a .500 team? That’s awesome!
I understand Barfield’s a rookie. That’s why I said, “Barfield is a rookie”.
Roberts can hit certain lefties…the ones everyone hits. The ones you and I could hit (well, you could hit). He cannot hit good or average lefties. Boch has sat him against all those guys because he knows he cannot hit them. If he plays against them, his numbers are in line with his career numbers against lefties. Besides, I said he was, along with Adrian, one of our best hitters. So re: Barfield and Roberts, you re-state what I said (yet somehow we’re in disagreement)
I really don’t care if Walker is superior to Vinny or whoever. Yellow crap may be superior to green and black crap, but crap is crap. (sweet analogy, eh!?).
I’m not ignoring park factors and the second half pitching woes. They make the Padres second rate, too. These guys are pitching crappy because they are crappy. Jake’s struggles have been documented, but at least he is one who is consistently effective and very unlucky this year. Woody Williams is a time bomb, Chris Young can’t go longer than 6 innings, Chan Ho’s out, but wasn’t great even when he was here (on the other end of all Jake’s bad luck), and Hensley’s a head case (3 pitch K, 4 pitch K, BB, BB, BB, 2B, 3 pitch K).
I’m not sure how long the park factor excuse does anything for me. I mean, our defense plays well to our park, so shouldn’t that negate any offensive disadvantage to some extent? It should also help our pitchers, yet visiting hitters continue to kill the Pads in Petco.
I’m just saying…I think this team has grossly overachieved to this point and I am continually surprised when, like the housing market, the bubble has not yet burst. Or maybe it has. The next few weeks will tell.
Also, no…hell no….on Aaron Boone.
I would pick up Boone if he’s released but I wouldn’t trade anything for him. I don’t think he’d be that much better than Bellhorn to justify giving anything of value.
I’m old school enough to think that RISP is not totally random. I think the Padres RISP performance in this series was a result of good pitching from the Mets combined with mental issues, whether it’s complacency or over-anxiousness or something else.
The Ben Johnson AB to end the game yesterday was a good example. Several people have mentioned they thought the call was bad, I thought it was too close to take with 2 strikes and the game on the line. More telling to me was the 3-1 pitch, it was close and Johnson started to first but it was called a strike. He fouled off a pitch or two and then did the same thing on strike three. That tells me he was looking to draw a walk and let somebody else take a shot rather than being aggressive in a situation where he could drive in some runs. If he swings and grounds out to second base I wouldn’t be happy but I’d at least give him credit for trying to drive in a run rather than letting an umpire decide the game.
This game left something to be desired. the quality of play wasn’t well. Brocail shouldn’t have been in that game.
the throw beat Roberts when he tried to stretch the double but ti was a bad angle.
Was there a blackhole in that strike zone?
that being said, Chris Young struggled. He had trobule extending on his front foot to get to home. The shea mound didn’t look to great either.
LM – agree that I was also one of the ones hoping Bellhorn would fare better than Vinny. It didn’t happen, at least to this point.
Ah, that raises a question … has Bellhorn done better than Vinny did?
In my opinion they’re both inept, but I think Vinny had a better glove. The only advantage Bellhorn has is he’s a switch “hitter”, but I use the term lightly as almost half the time he K’s.
Bad series; we are going to have them. If we lose this division, I will blame it on the non-trade for Betemit. I like Walker, but he is what we should have as utility player that gets decent PT.
We need offense and a 3B, there is a solid 3B out there and available and you need to give up a solid mid-reliever? Geez. Of course you do that.
Not sure what a “mental kick in the pants” is supposed to accomplish. Is the team trying to win? Yes. Is it doing things glaringly poorly, like hacking at bad pitches or playing sloppy? No. It is just not hitting and not pitching great. Not much you can do about that. “Go and hit.” “Try harder”, etc, not sure what that accomplishes. The coaches should tweak things if they see flaws, but not getting down on players just because the outcomes are not what you want. If the input is there, team meetings about outcomes is stupid.
What can the pads do next year to improve thier offence? If you think about it 7 out of the 8 spots are set for next season, sure a 3B will help but unless his name is david wright or A-Rod then I dont think they will be able to carry this team.
no offense, but this thread is riddled with exaggeration and psychobabble.
understandably, as we’re going through one of the low points of the season.
but how the heck do you know what’s going on in these players heads?
this is a slightly above average team at the top of a tight race that just got swept by the best team in the NL. That’s all we can really say.
your right Eric I think we are all just venting some steam, If teh team starts to win again then the board will become more optimistic.
Eric is psycho-babble!!
Steve is right, just venting.
yeah, nuthin wrong with venting.
friarfan is a poopoo face!
Can I say poop, too? Oh, wait, I just did.
Now let’s all go out and pound some Budweiser and come back and beat Houston tomorrow, to paraphrase Joe Schultz. And if you don’t get the reference or don’t know who Joe Schultz is, get yourself a copy of Ball Four and start reading immediately!
Steve: I count only five spots as set for next season. Left field and catcher seem to be up in the air. The good news is, I don’t think we’ll need a third baseman who can carry the team. The rest of the infield is going to be very good offensively, and Cameron and Giles will hold their own, with Giles a candidate to bounce back somewhat. The main requirement of any third baseman next year is that he not stink. It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to say that.
Eric: Good call. There’s really only one team in the NL that anyone should fear, and we just found out why. Bummer, but it’s done.
Who’s engaging in psycho-babble?
I think its set that
Roberts or Johnson will be in LF
and Bard or Piazza will be behind the plate
I mean if the pads really wanted to win then they could do something like this:
Barfield 2B
Giles RF
Gonzalez 1B
Piazza/Bard C
Lee LF
Crede 3B
Cameron CF
Greene SS
Peavy
Zito
Young
Eaton
Hensley
But we know they wont spend the money, I guess thats really what i meant.
Steve-
That scenario probably added almost 40 million dollars to the payroll (for next year alone) to 3 players who are going to be past their prime really soon. That’s not “really wanting to win,” that’s a bad use of money. The Yankees won’t be able to get all three of those guys in one offseason.
I see 4 guys in Steve’s proposal: Lee, Crede, Zito, and Eaton … Paul – did you miss Eaton
Pads have just lost their hold on first — finally. Lofton single in bottom of 9th gives Dodgers a 4-3 win (and a half game lead).
All season long everyone has known the race will come down to the final couple of weeks. That being said, why all the negativity? The Pads played the Mets tough, and, although over the course of a season the Mets and Cards would probably hold a slight advantage in wins head-to-head over the Pads, it is not hard to imagine the Pads winning a playoff series. Pads have a solid team and 3 decent starters — doesn’t anyone remember Sterling Hitchcock dominating the Braves and Astros (two teams the Pads weren’t supposed to beat)?
Yeah, their bats have been cold for a couple weeks now, but they still only lost the first two games against the Mets by one run and were tied in the 7th inning of the 3rd game. With any hitting, it isn’t inconceivable the Pads could have swept the series.
The Pads are about as good as the D’Backs and Dodgers (the team we swept on the road not too long ago). I’d rather have a great divisional race down the stretch than a team with a 5-game lead getting blown out in the playoffs.
Go Pads!