Where do I even begin? That this isn’t the way I’d wanted to see the season end seems so beyond doubt that it hardly bears mentioning, and yet I just mentioned it. Even though a thing is obvious, it still needs a voice.
I hate writing this. I hate thinking this. Honestly? I hate everything about this.
But you can’t go through life hating, right? Well, you can, but it’s probably not a good idea. Besides, it’s just baseball.
“Just baseball.” I hate that, too. Like that somehow negates it all, makes the experience less important, less real. Yeah, buddy, screw you.
Anyway. Now you see the problem. I can’t even get started. Do I whine about Monday night’s outcome (box score), or do I express gratitude at having witnessed a tremendous game that most teams didn’t have the right to play? Do I make excuses for Jake Peavy, Brady Clark, and Trevor Hoffman, or do I give the Rockies their props for outplaying our guys?
Yeah, I said it. They outplayed the Padres. Deal, yo.
Or maybe we can think about Milwaukee. Sure, let’s play “what-if” there instead. Why did Hoffman throw eight bazillion change-ups in a row? What if he shows Tony Gwynn Jr. a fastball? (What if Gwynn hits it?) Or perhaps we’ll go back further and pin the blame on Mike Winters for baiting Milton Bradley, Bradley for gobbling it up, and Bud Black for taking out his own guy in the process. Or we could…
Here’s what happens when you go down that road. Aside from the fact that you make yourself miserable, you’re not even being honest with yourself. Replace every “should have” throughout the course of a 163-game season with “could have” and see what happens. When you say “should,” you’re basically conceding that games don’t even need to be played. Yeah, probability and all that. Okay, fine; I get it. But on the field, none of that matters. The only legal tender currency is what actually happens — you may know it better as reality.
Painful? Sometimes, yes; sometimes, no. But it remains constant even as it constantly changes.
I’m not making sense again. Sorry, it’s been that kind of life.
Another approach would be to take pride in knowing that the Padres, despite missing two of their starting outfielders and getting negative contributions from the best starting pitcher and best reliever in franchise history, pushed an improbably hot Colorado team to the edge of a mile-high precipice. This one might work better a few months from now, when the throbbing is less intense.
How can we reflect at a time like this? How can we analyze and be philosophical? Why would we want to even if we could? Now that the season’s over, it’s not like there’s a sense of urgency. Grieve, mourn, vent. Whatever it takes. Then sort through the rubble over the winter and return in spring with maybe a more prominent chip on the collective shoulder.
We can’t play in the big game? But, but… well, then, do it already. Nobody gives us respect? Oh, but they do; they give us exactly as much respect as we have earned. Want more? Okay, play better. Until then, suck it up like everyone else and get back to work.
The Padres have completed their fourth straight winning season. That’s the first time in franchise history if you’re scoring at home. They’ve made the transition from lousy/mediocre to good. How do they get from there to great? I don’t know, and I’m not prepared to think about it just yet.
I do know that this organization is in better shape than ever and that the better it gets, the more I want. This is a credit to the folks who run the club but also a burden for them. Not that the Padres have anywhere near the same track record, but I’m beginning to understand why the Braves couldn’t sell out home playoff games in the ’90s. At some point, as obnoxious as it sounds, reaching the playoffs isn’t enough.
To say nothing of not reaching the playoffs…
* * *
Man, this post sucks. I keep writing because… well, I don’t know what else to do. Is it spring yet?
234 Comments
(clap clap clap clap)
Well said.
The men that were on the field last night were the 2007 Padres.
And I’m proud of them.
I didn’t get to watch any of the game, but I’m still pretty much in shock. I’m not depressed as a Padres fan, because I think that’s awfully selfish.
I fell really terrible for our boys. They kicked, and clawed, and fought, and scraped all night. They had to overcome a sub-par outing from their ace and a sizzling offense on the other side of the diamond. But they never gave up. They fought for everything they had. When my fiance texted me to tell me Hairston had put us up, I was pretty sure it was over then.
It just sucks that all of the efforts of our guys on the field were negated by one truly awful call at the plate. If that call is right, who knows what happens. Completely changes the game, as it’s now tied with 2 down and a man at second.
I know this is totally homerish, but I really can’t recall a season in which we consistently had so many problems with the umpiring. Is this just a trend in baseball? Am I over-analyzing this? I can name several situations this year where the umpires had an impact on the complexion of the game. Correct me if I’m wrong, but they’re not supposed to have any impact, right?
The season just wasn’t supposed to end like this, but it did. Now we rebuild. Unfortunately, it appears that the Rockies and the D’backs will only be better next year, with their young players further maturing and developing. We’ll need to find a way to keep pace. I believe in the front office and I beleive in the team. I don’t believe in the impartiality of MLB umpires.
Thanks for saying what I was feeling but couldn’t articulate, Geoff. I may have to refer my brother, “Mr. Pessimism,” to this entry.
Suggestion for a new Ducksnorts t-shirt: “Ducksnorts: where we’re still waiting for Matt Holliday to touch home plate” – I’d buy one, and I don’t care how bitter it looks.
Ugh. I realized last night how miserable it must have been to be a Red Sox fan pre-2004. Having a crappy team is one thing, and it robs baseball of any fun, but being good but not able to win the big one is a torturous thing. Now I get why some Red Sox fans would openly question whether they were being bad parents by bringing their kids up as Sox fans – how can you hook another generation on something that gives this much pain? Take how we’re feeling and extend it to, what, 86 years? How do you take that?
But think about it this way – how sweet will the high be if the low is this low? You can’t really enjoy the big moment as thoroughly if you don’t have a memory bank full of this sort of pain to expunge.
I kind of feel like we lost the game on the coin flip – not that we haven’t won in CO this year, but Jake hadn’t pitched there and if he were to lose any of the movement on his pitches (which is what that thin air does) he might get hit hard. Hoffman basically had the same problem. He must have location and movement and he wasn’t getting either. Bell, Brocail and Thatcher are different in a way. Bell’s breaking pitch doesn’t have to move a lot. It just has to move a little and be 10-12mph slower than his heat. Thatcher’s arm angle, when he’s in good control like last night, leads to a lot of his success. But for Jake it’s all about that biting hard slider and late life on the heater, and he wasn’t getting that last night.’
I’m convinced we would lose the NLDS against Philly – maybe we take 1 like last year, but no way this taped-together semi-AAA lineup with 2/3 of it’s starting pitchers not themselves due to injuries wins a series. It’s painful b/c 30 days ago with a healthy rotation, MB and Cammy, a flexible bench w/ Hairston, Mackowiak, Ensberg, etc., this was a dangerous, WS-possible team.
I worry a lot about next season. The two teams most committed to their young talent are the two returning playoff teams. The Giants will be lost for a few years, and between the Dogs and us I still think we’ll own them given Ned Colletti not being as smart as he needs to be. But CO and AZ are for real it seems, barring some sophmore slumps I guess. We have some glaring needs to address and won’t be able to do it on all homegrown talent (again):
– #4 and #5 starters
– LF, CF
– 2B
– backup C
I would keep Blum as utility IF – as much as we rode him on this site this year, as long as he’s not a regular I think he has value. Barrett will be gone – his value is his bat and it wasn’t good this year. Bard outcaught and outhit him and should be the presumed starter. But he can’t catch 162 so we need to find a reliable backup.
Getting the #4 and #5 SP slots will be the easy part I think – FA pitchers should be falling all over themselves to come to Petco. Filling the OF holes will be really tough in the FA market – prices are high and I think a lot of hitters will be scared off from Petco.
Sigh. Enough typing. If you’re still reading, thank you and sorry for babbling!
I hate to point out the 800 lbs. gorilla, but is Trevor done? I know he often blows a few at a time, but even when he’s been “on” there’s been such a small margin of error. He hasn’t looked “on” (whether he was saving games against Pittsburgh & San Francisco or blowing them against Milwaukie & Colorado) in quite awhile…
well atleast we have the Chargers…..Do’h
We do need to reload this winter. No more Petco Survivors in the 4th and 5th spots. We need some legitimate upside in the rotation; CY has been hurt two consecutive years, and with his body, he’s always going to be at risk. Peavy may never be this good again, and it would be foolhardy to count on another 36 VORP from Maddux. If you try to limp along with Germano/Wells/Cassell in the rotation for six months, you end up in tiebreaking WC games that rip your heart from your chest and show its bleeding pulp to your before you die.
Obviously I’d love to trade for Santana if he’s available, but we’re probably unable and unwilling to match what the Dodgers or others would give up. My second target, right now, is AJ Burnett. The Toronto GM doesn’t like him, he’s not tough, but he still did throw 168 very good innings this season. And he can opt out of his contract after 2008, so we’re not tied to him.
On the final play – that was honestly one of the greatest clutch double-plays ever in baseball. Fantastic throw by OG (was it cut off? I doubt it but can’t recall clearly), fantastic block of the plate by Barrett. This is why coaches coach catchers to set up their block first and worry about the ball second – if you keep the runner from the plate, he can’t score and that’s what Barrett did. Holliday even said he “got his hand stepped on” – well, look at the replay! Barrett’s foot definitely wasn’t on home plate, so neither was Holliday’s hand!
Think about the result if the play is correctly called – two outs, man on second. I believe it was Hawpe on deck…is that right? Maybe Hoffy gives up a base knock to score the runner, maybe he gets a pop up, maybe he gets a nubber to Blum…maybe we get a chance to hit against Ortiz again or whatever garbage Hurdle had left.
Re: 6 I think Hoffy will be back next year, he has one year left on his deal and I dont think he wants last night to be his last big league game.
That sucked yesterday and I am concrened that the window of opportunity in the division has closed.
Colorado is loaded offensively and their young pitching is very impressive.
LA/Arizona also have very good farm systems with very good young players.
LA could cause huge problems if healthy and if the rumors of a Santana deal are true.
KT is going to have his hands full this off season because bringing back this same team is going to lead to a 4th place finish
The only thing I can post without going into total rant mode today is that our team showed us a lot yesterday. I won’t go into the ump or Trevor or any of the BS that I could dig up and dwell on but seriously our guys really fought their asses off last night and we should be proud.
*Heath Bell and Joe Thatcher were such freaking men last night it was out of control. They took a mountain of pressure on their shoulders in a hostile enviornment and made future CY Young winners and future HOF Closers look like f-ing CHUMPS!
*Scott Hairston is my vote for Padres MVP. To me his impact in the last month was more important to us getting to last night than I think almost anyone. To step up and prove your worth time after time after time with limited opportunities and put the team on your back the way he has to me is incredible.
*I love Adrian Gonzalez plain and simple. On the national stage last night he really did a lot to make the Padres look like more than just Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and a big ball park.
*Kevin Kouzmanoff had a very good defensive game last night. He made a couple of plays last night that really were huge IMO.
*Mike Cameron… If he isn’t back next year, THANKS A LOT DUDE!!! So that’s what a center fielder looks like. He showed some guts last night and I think everyone in the dugout, especially a guy like Milton Bradley could take some tips from Cammy on how to go about your business and be a major league ball player.
Okay so it did go into full on rant mode. I am sick in my stomach from the outcome but it was nice to see us come out and compete to the end. Some of our guys really made us proud last night.
Re 10: Yeah, but if he doesn’t think he has it anymore, I don’t think he’ll come back and let himself be embarrassed.
In #6 I only asked the question, I don’t know where I stand on the issue. If he is back, Black will need to keep him even more rested than he did this year – maybe groom Bell for the job for ‘09.
I don’t know…
Re: 13 he still had 42 saves this year. Trevor has just not done well in the playoffs
5. I would buy one of those shirts.
6. In a word: yes.
11. Excellent point about the division. I know y’all don’t want to hear this, but if you’re not moving forward, you’re falling behind. The days of winning the NL West with less than 90 wins are over. This team needs a masher in the middle of the order to bat behind Adrian and gobble up any base runners Adrian doesn’t drive in. It’s time to make a splash in the offseason.
14.
Or world series, or all-star games, or playoff clinching games, or Trevor Hoffman Bobble Head Alarm Clock Statue night.
Re: 15 I think Kouz may be able to fill that role next year
Here’s a fun note, from the SI.com writeup:
” It was the first time San Diego had a two-run lead in extras and lost since June 13, 2004, when the Padres dropped a 6-5, 12-inning decision at Yankee Stadium, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.”
Picked a super time to do it too.
#18: Ugh, thanks for the reminder…
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2004/06/frustration-and-hope.html
Great so we’re going to count on Kouz to improve, yeah he probably will but wouldn’t it be nice to actually have a good offense next season?
Let’s face it a team starting Brady Clark and Blum isn’t a playoff team, especially when its rotation includes both Tomko and Cassell.
The rotation also needs help because the likelihood of Peavy/Young/Maddux being as successful as they were this season is fairly small.
Re: 20 who can they get? Clark was a 5th OF its not like the Pads planned on having him in the lineup last April.
I’m bitter, damned bitter. That game was ours, punked by crappy umpires two weekends in a row and it cost us the playoffs, and blue just waddles down to florida for the winter, no consequences. Bitter too at Hoffman. While still a clubhouse leader, his physical skills are gone. Next year, he helps transistion Bell to closer and goes softly into the braodcast booth. Who was the philly reliever who gave it up to Joe Carter in the WS and never returned? Right now I don’t want to forgive, forget. rationalize, philosphize, psychologize, think about the future, move on, take stock, remember the good times, no of that crap. I just want to be bitter, ugly and bitter (like met fan). Soon enough the fall sunshine will seep in and like all San Diego sports fans, I will mellow, wonder how I could possbly be unhappy living here and move on. But now, right now, its a gloomy day, a gloomy week, a gloomy month.
Thanks again, geoff, for this great blog and your timely, heart-felt writing.
I think that brings up an organizational depth problem….they only had 1 CF in the entire organization last year: Cameron and he has a history of getting hurt. He’s been on the DL a lot over his career, shouldn’t you have some sort of back up plan?
They also chose to start the year with a AAA outfielder in Sledge starting.
At least you guys don’t have a dreaded goat to contend with.
Could someone, anyone, put together something OBJECTIVE which shows Trevor’s declining performance? Sure, he blew two saves in a row, two crucial saves, two HUGE saves; it was disastrous, horrible, awful, but two blown saves DOES NOT equate to a decline in performance. A poor second half for a pitcher who throws fewer than 65 IP DOES NOT equate to a trend.
The last four years he has done the following:
IP 54.2, 57.2, 63, and 57.1
K 53, 54, 50, 44
WHIP .91, 1.11, .97, 1.12
BAA .211, .235, .205, .228
I don’t see the problem there. I see nothing which indicates he is not capable of performing at a similar level, and of being effective, next season. No, he is not the best pitcher or best reliever on the staff. No, he is not as dominant as he once was, BUT he is perfectly adequate and effective at what he still does, which is get 3 outs in the 9th with a lead and no one on base.
If you prefer to go to more advanced metrics, BP shows him as being:
PRAA 23, 12, 22, 20
PRAR 56, 47, 52, 54
Those are better numbers than his four seasons prior to surgery in 2003.
So if you’re hammering on Trevor, please put up something reasonable showing he deserves it (beyond the unfortunate and unlucky fact of blowing two saves in a row in a crucial situation, which quite simply happens in baseball to even the greatest of players), or just SHUT UP.
re 25: Seriously? Why can’t people be upset? We spend a ton of time following the team and it is frustrating to see 2 of the highest paid players on the team unable to perform when it counts.
-Peavy hasn’t shown that he can pitch well in the playoffs(3 starts, 3 horrible performances)
-Hoffman has been much, much worse in the playoffs then the regular season
Re: 25 I agree I dont think last night was a Trevor in decline thing I think it was a Trevor not good in the big game thing.
Ok – so that’s not how I wanted the season to end and I know it’s easy to be bitter, but our team fought for 163 games before they were eliminated. And four winning seasons is nothing to push aside when you’ve been a Padres fan as long as I have. I just have to keep in mind the following:
-The state of Texas had two losing teams
-The state of Florida had two losing teams
-The Bay Area had two losing teams
-Pittsburg has had a losing team for 15 (?) years
-The previous World Champions were so devastated by injury that they should have played their games with walkers and canes.
-The Baltimore fans had only one thing to cheer this year and they had to go to Cooperstown to watch it.
Thanks Geoff for running such a great site – you had a great season, too.
26: Mark, where did I say people can’t be upset? I simply asked for support from anyone who is claiming Trevor is in decline or can’t perform.
Case in point: “-Hoffman has been much, much worse in the playoffs then the regular season”
Evidence?
Our GAPING holes in the offseason are CF and 2 SPs. These need to be filled by legit talent. We need a CF who can play the position and we need a couple starters that will at give us quality starts and go .500.
2B will have to be plugged (Castillo, Loretta?)
CF… I heard Granderson may be available or CoCo? They both play a legit CF
SP… Santana is a dream, but i love the idea of Burnett if he is available, I also like Dave Bush and giving Prior a minor league deal. If our pitching coaches can work with Tomko, I think he would be much better with us than he was with the Dogs.
LF… I have a hard time not giving Scott Hairston a shot. He plays well in the OF, hustles and has earned a chance MUCH more than Sledge ever did.
Re: 28 other teams sucking does not help me feel better about the Padre loss.
re 29: Sure, lol its going to be hard to have a decent conversation if people won’t take some things at face value, or have a 30 second look at baseball reference
Regular Season: 2.73 ERA 524 Saves, 63 Blown Saves
Playoffs: 3.46 ERA 4 Saves, 2 Blown Saves
29: Do you really need evidence on that? Isnt that common fact. Hoffman has never been very good in the big game. 2 games this year, last year he all but choked away our lead vs AZ. The ASGs. In 96 or 98 he didnt pitch particualy well either.
The Pads will probably trade for some CF prospect/ex-prospect, like Brian Anderson. That’s why I am not optimistic about the offseason – buy low on guys I don’t know much about, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I ain’t Waits of Friberg after all.
Re 26: How would have Peavy looked if Cameron had been in CF?
#25: Pat, I’m on the fence about Trevor right now — this isn’t the best time for me to think clearly on the issue, but for the first time, I’m willing to entertain other possibilities. Can’t speak for anyone else, but my main concern with Trevor is his inability to put the ball past hitters. Here is a disturbing trend:
2002: .282
2003: (injured)
2004: .254
2005: .225
2006: .202
2007: .187
This is SO/PA. It doesn’t tell everything, but it’s a pretty good indication that his margin for error is shrinking. The question is, where does that margin intersect the end of effectiveness? It’s a testament to the guy that he’s been able to succeed as long as he has relying almost entirely on guile, but eventually, the folks who have been predicting his collapse will be right — well, 6 or 7 years after the fact, anyway.
Again, I’m not sure where I stand regarding Trevor. I cannot think objectively about him right now. That said, I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t have any concerns.
Pat/Evidence:
Hoffman’s K/9 rate, last 4 seasons, has gone from 8.73 to 8.41 to 7.14 to 6.91.
His K/BB rate has gone the wrong way over the same period. In 2004 he struck out 6.63 hitters for every walk. Then 4.50. Then 3.85. Then 2.93 this year. That’s a sign of seriously declining command, and with his stuff, it’s very worrisome.
Like Peavy and Brown before him, Hoffman’s ability in big games depends on how you define “big.” Most people seem to define it as “the last game.” Brown crushed teams in the 98 playoffs before getting to the WS. Peavy’s beaten the Dodgers and other contenders often in September.
32: I’d guess that that difference is not statistically significant, or anywhere close to it. Since he’s probably facing better hitters in the playoffs, we’d expect the ERA to be slightly higher anyway. So .83 points of ERA in a sample size that tiny really doesn’t lead me to the conclusion that he’s a choker.
Re 31: The point is not that other teams suck, but that we were those teams for years. As a fan I want to win a championship, but for each winning team there has to be a losing team and I am grateful to be on a winning streak after so many losing seasons.
According to BP Cameron saves them 1 run, maybe 2(more of an impartial observer then me):
Speaking of outfield miscues, the Padres were killed by their center fielder. Brady Clark made three plays in the sixth inning, leading to a tiebreaking run. He couldn’t get to Seth Smith’s deep fly with one out, and Smith went all the way to third on the play. He then made a lousy throw on Kaz Matsui’s medium-depth fly to center that allowed Smith to score. The next batter, Tulowitzki, hit another deep fly ball that Clark took an awkward route to, reached, and misplayed into another triple. It’s clear that Cameron would have made the second play, possible that he would have made the first, and likely that he would have made a better throw on the sac fly.
I can’t be too hard on Clark here. Despite a decent brief peak with the pre-good Brewers, he’s a replacement-level outfielder, and at 34, no longer a center fielder by any definition. He’s out there because the Padres lost two center fielders on consecutive days with a week to go in the season. He’s being asked to do more than he’s capable of doing, and his flaws cropped up at a bad time for the Padres.
25. I haven’t taken the time to crunch the numbers more in depth, but after the All-star break, Trevor’s ERA was about 4.50 with 5 blown saves in 22 chances. That’s a 77% conversion rate, well below his career average of 89%. And that doesn’t take into account his narrow escapes in multiple chances.
I understand your argument that one half of one season is not normally a trend. However, Trevor is not a normal case for several reasons.
1- He is a closer. That means he directly affects the outcome of a game. A starter can hide his ineffectiveness in the early innings. But a closer is in a high-impact position virtually every time out.
2- He is old. You have to watch players in their late 30’s like a hawk because when it goes, it goes FAST.
3- Declining “stuff”. When you’re a veteran pitcher, getting by on moxy and not electric stuff, you have no margin for error. When you walk a razor-thin line, any decline in effectiveness is magnified.
Just to complete the picture from the 30 second visit to baseball reference:
All-star games: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 3 2b 1 HR, 6 ER. 10.13 ERA
Mr. Campbell, care to respond? (Neyer chat)
Jonathan (Go Tribe): Can you please explain why the call on the final play last night was “questionable”? Holliday should have been called safe EVEN IF HE DIDN’T TOUCH THE PLATE, because Barrett blocked the plate without having the ball, which is illegal. This also explains why McLelland hesitated, because he had to verify that the ball bounced away and Barrett did not catch it initially. Am I missing something?
Rob Neyer: (12:33 PM ET ) No, McClelland hesitated because that’s what he does, generally. In that situation, you might as well wait and make sure you’re right (or not). As for blocking the plate, it may or may not have been illegal, but either way it wouldn’t have mattered. The umpire have been turning a blind eye to such things for a long, long time.
Pat…while I don’t fully subscribe to the Trevor is done line of reasoning, you have asked for some evidence…outside of anecdotal, I can give you this…Five years ago, Hoffman struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings. Two years ago, he struck out 8.4 per nine innings. Last year it was 7.1. This year it’s 6.5.
That is not a trend that is going to suddenly change unless Hoffy finds a way to kick up his fastball another 5-7mph. His margin for error on bump is much lower now that he throws 82mph and only has a 10-12mph difference in his FB –> Change.
But, in his defense, just like the last couple of years, when you look at the 2007 season as a whole, he just gets it done with a Sub-3 ERA, 40+ saves, and a steady hand…Just hard knowing that when he is in there, I am more surprised when he completes the save than when he blows it, but I also acknowledge that is completely an emaotional response.
Changing subjects a bit…
BA Cal League Top 20:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264944.html
#4 Matt Antonelli (seems about right)
#12 Wade Leblanc (again, about right)
Paging BA, where’s Huffman & Blanks?
Kyle Blanks (21 now, played ‘07 @ 20 years old)
.301/.380/.540 with 31 2B, 4 3B, & 24 HR, 44/98 BB/SO ratio, & 11 SB
Chad Huffman (22)
.307/.402/.522 with 19 2B, 2 3B, & 15 HR, 42/56 BB/SO ratio
Now here’s the real rub, when I complained to BA about Antonelli not being in the Future’s game, they said that they did not submit his name to MLB because there were better players (such as Huffman)…
42. I’m not sure All-star games are a good indicator. Trevor uses the pressure of games (when guys are grinding the bat into sawdust) against them.
In an exhibition game, guys have less pressure and sit back and take their hacks. Trevor can’t use their desire to win a game single-handedly against them.
Let’s not forget the litany of closers who’d failed in All-star games (Eric Gagne in 2003 for example.)
43: I think the rule is you’re allowed to block the plate if you are in the act of fielding the ball. Barrett was in the act of fielding the ball, so yes, he’s allowed to block the plate.
From the same chat:
RJ – Dallas: Blocking the plate is only illegal if no play is being attempted. If you are in a position to receive the ball from another player, you can block any bag. The ball tipped off his glove before Holliday even got there. The biggest error is McCleland being out of position and shielded by Barrett. Holliday should have just run him over, with or without the ball. Its perfectly legal
Rob Neyer: (12:37 PM ET ) Great. So you’re saying that, according to the rules, the runner can slam into the catcher OR the catcher can jam his metal spikes into the player’s hand. Lovely game you’ve got there, friend.
Read the Rules (NYC): I think that RJ is incorrect. You can only block a bag after you have the ball and not while you’re waiting to receive the ball. I pulled the following straight from the MLB rulebook on MLB.com: “…NOTE: The catcher, without the ball in his possession, has no right to block the pathway of the runner attempting to score. The base line belongs to the runner and the catcher should be there only when he is fielding a ball or when he already has the ball in his hand…”
I’m very proud of my boys after last nite’s affair. They fought and battled and played with all the heart in the world. I’m proud to be a Padres fan, and this is a game that will go down as one of the best ever.
You can’t exactly blame the Padres for using Clark last nite. We lost two of our OFs in one game. We had to go with what we had. Clark was our best option. It sucks, but it’s not like we had much choice.
Hopefully we can rebuild and come back stronger than ever.
34: I’m adopting Waits of Friberg as my new handle for the day. Makes me feel like a Norman noble signing the Magna Carta.
If they acquire Brian Anderson to start in CF I’ll throw up, pack the vomit in dry ice, and mail it to the front office.
I don’t blame Clark, but when the organization doesn’t seem to have a back up plan for Cameron who hasn’t exactly been the picture of health over the past few seasons….there are problems
Hey the D-Backs gave us Hariston maybe they will give us Quinton
The day after is always the hardest. I’m damn proud of this team and its fans – this isn’t Boston or NY or Chicago, but there are still plenty of passionate, knowledgeable and committed fans that live and die by our teams just as much as they do. I’m bummed (understatement) that Hoffy has to sit on this for the next 6 months, but he will come back and so will this team. Hoffy will be the first one to stand up and own what happened – and if he is ‘done’ he’ll be the one to say it, not me. The fact is the Rockies earned it and showed it by being the best team in the NL the last 2+ weeks of the season, umpires aside. Doesn’t change how bitter I feel at times, but it is the deal as GY said very eloquently.
My question is, what will the FO do now? There are plenty of holes that need to be filled, and no, going with a AAA option in LF next year and the same old answer at 2B does not work for the fans…we expect better now.
I too feel the window of opportunity closed for us last night, and that it will be *much* more difficult in the years to come to compete with AZ, COL, and yes, LA. All I know is that I’ll be back as long as there are San Diego Padres taking the field come April.
50: D’oh. Waits [B]or[/B] Friberg.
48: Exactly, he was attempting to field a ball
54: I suck at this formatting thing. [Hangs head and cries]
is it a sure thing that Maddux will be back next year?
To follow up on Peter’s question about the Cal League Top 20, BA’s Josh Leventhal will chat about that list (and the Cal in general, I assume) today. You don’t need to be a subscriber to participate in the BA chats:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2007100201
Huh? Should I be offended, complimented, or… somethine else altogether?
53: Hoff already stood up and owned what happened, he said the loss was a direct effect of his own performance and now that is his burden to carry…
58: I was asked to sign in, is there a trick to this?
I think the Pads will wait for him to pickup his player option which will be $8.75 mil since he had 198 IP this year.
Ya i think its pretty much a sure thing Maddux will be back
57: He had a player option for base 6 that increased to 8.75 when he went over 185 innings. 2 more innings and it would have increased to 10 million. There’s a club option for 11. He’s almost certain to be back.
61: Dang, I just noticed that. The chats didn’t use to be subscriber-only, but now it’s got their little subscriber icon. Sorry.
It will be interesting to see that happens with Hensley next season. Will they give him a shot in ST to make his way into the rotation or will he be religated to the bullpen?
Come on, guys. The fact is the hitters were 1 for 13 with RISP last night, Peavy was horrible, and Clark was not the CF for the vast Coors OF. To blame the loss solely on Hoffman’s is harsh.
Had OG got a better arm, his throw wouldn’t have so much arch to it from shallow right. A couple more runs after Hairston’s HR would have put the game away (I’m pointing to you, Khalil). So many possibilities.
I’m proud the team battled and the bullpen was awesome. Who’d thought it would have come to the 2 BS by Hoffman to end the season a week or so ago when both Jenga and Cameron went down on the same day.
OK, I blame Barrett on the loss. Also, Pepe Negro for keeping Boomer out just one inning too long way too many times.
Drats! I can’t believe the season is over.
59: Talking to me? I was saying earlier that the Padres might target a blocked or underappreciated youngster with CF talent. The acquisition won’t necessarily excite me or everyday fan, but smarties such as Mr. Friberg and Mr. Waits might say, “Hey, good pickup, he could be this year’s Adrian Gonzalez.”
Geoff,
I have found solace in the sorrowful voice of Fiona Apple this morning. Her torchy songs on her second album are fine tonic – not happy tonic, but tonic nonetheless.
67: I keep thinking about that extra-innings affair against Colorado on the 21st.
66: I will be extremely surprised if Hensley’s labrum heals for him to be considered a realistic option during ST. I’ll be fairly surprised if he’s ever a really good pitcher again, but that’s not because of anything about him, shoulder surgeries are brutal.
Fix the rotation without consideration for Hensley, and if he recuperates, it’s more depth. Lack of pitching depth killed us this year.
69: I’m playing the Curious George Sing-Along with Jeff Johnson.
how about Germano any shot at all of making the 08 team?
70: Having to throw Germano, Wells, Cassell, and Tomko out there for many games killed the Padres this season. Win 2 more games of their starts and the Padres would be in the playoffs. I’m not talking about the 1-2 runs affairs, I meant the blowouts.
Germano is replacement level talent who shouldn’t be anywhere near the mound in Petco next year.
They need to start the year with 5 legit starters and use Geer/LeBlanc when those guys are injured. Enough with the patchwork #5 spot in the rotation
#68: I am listening to Coltrane. Jazz is the only thing that can console me now, and even that doesn’t quite do the trick.
Also, thanks to everyone for the kudos. I will have a more formal “thanks/off-season plans” type of post up in the next day or two, but just wanted to let y’all know that your thoughts and general support are very much appreciated.
45: That list has two players that I just don’t believe in. Bubba Bell got to hit in a home park where they should play with softballs. Oh, he’s also 24 years old. He was still good on the road, but it’s still the Cal League, and he’s still 24.
Justin Masterson does nothing for me. An experienced college pitcher gave up more hits than innings pitched and struck out only 56 in 96 innings. The hits are partly a product of his home park, the same Lancaster that makes every hitter look superhuman, but the K’s are on his own stuff.
72, 73, 74: Germano’s nice to have in reserve, but he should be about the 9th option to start for us in 2008.
Best way to gain perspective on the Padres last night: alternating between TBS and PBS. Two hours of “The War” covering the Battle of the Bulge, the hundreds of thousands of civilians killed during firebombing, the battle of Iwo Jima, the American civilians starving in a Japanese prison camp, etc. made the Padres plight a little easier to take.
My first year participating with Ducksnorts and reading the great work of its proprietor was a blast ! Look forward to more of your great work – Hot Stove League here we come !
70: It’s funny, lack of starting pitcher depth killed basically every team except the Cubs and Red Sox, and you still don’t see teams adequately preparing for the inevitability of pitcher injuries or regression. The Phillies thought they had an excess of starting pitching at the start of the year, and look how they finished. If you don’t go into a season thinking you’re going to need 7 adequate starting pitchers at a minimum, then you’re going to end up claiming David Wells or Brett Tomko off the scrap heap and hoping for the best.
Hey G.Y. what do do you think of doing an 08 roster contest before the hot stove league even starts. We can all pull out our crystal balls and see if any of us get even close to what the 08 opening day roster is, but then again I may be getting to far ahead of myself.
First of all… I agree with KRS1 above, that you guys have a lot to be proud of… and a lot to look forward to. The trade of Otsuka/Eaton/minor leaguer for Adrian Gonzalez/Chris Young/Termel Sledge is one of the biggest robberies I’ve ever seen. I like how Joe Morgan put it, “San Diego must have had a ski mask on when they made that trade because they robbed Texas.”
Adrian Gonzalez is a hell of a hitter and should be around for awhile. Khalil Greene is a solid shortstop. KK looked great defensively last night and his bat should come around. You need a second baseman… and some signings for the outfield. I think you’ll get them.
Having a rotation start off with Peavy and Young is outstanding. Though Peavy, like the Cubs’ Zambrano, needs to stop talking so much shit. (Plus, I think Young was clearly injured in the second half.) Maddog might be back for another go around. I’m sure you’ll find a decent four and five… Germano?
Finally, Bard is a solid catcher. And speaking of which…
The Cubs Nation was absolutely dying laughing to see your season end at the hands of Michael Barrett’s inability to catch a ball. We’ve seen it a million times. I’m not here to say “I told you so”, but rather to sympathize. I came here a long time ago and said you guys wouldn’t win with Barrett.
He can hit, I’ll give him that… despite his slump this year. But, he always finds a way to lose games. Whether behind home plate or on the basepaths… Barrett is a win killer. If he catches that ball, your season might have been saved.
I am curious about a technicality. I haven’t seen anyone mention this. I understand a catcher can block home plate if he’s in the act of fielding the ball… but is he allowed to stomp directly onto a guy’s hand that’s about to touch home plate? I’m wondering if it’s like in basketball… where if a defender is going to earn a charge call, he has to be set before scorer makes contact with him. Is a catcher really allowed to stomp on a hand, even if on accident… if the hand is inches from home plate? That’s not blocking, that’s stabbing!
Does anyone know? I’m wondering if baseball even has a rule for that.
Now you can all watch the Cubs do what they’ve been doing for 99 years. You can end up sympathizing back with me.
71: I should have brought my girl’s Raffi CD to work. That’s some happy, care-free poo.
I hate to sound like sour grapes and blame the officiating, but it’s worth noting that it was awful last night. We should expect better from MLB. The inconsistent strike zone was maddening (it affected both teams). And home plate umpire Tim McClelland should be reprimanded for the way he big-timed the hitters with all his delayed strike and out calls. The best umps are the ones you don’t notice. McClelland made Paris Hilton look demure the way he hammed it up for the cameras.
Trevor got exactly no outs last night, gave up three runs and the playoffs. He’s the Barry Bonds of the padre org. Time to move on. We came back in that game, two run dinger by Harriston, remember! Then trevor “gas can” hoffman showed up throwing BP. Black should have got him out after the first gapper. We are all living in the fricking past with this dude, he’s toast, face facts, Padre fans. 43 saves is zip when you can’t save the most important game of his career. Time for KT, SA, BB to realize that dog don’t hunt no more.
-Bitter and broken.
Some random thoughts:
Peavy’s performance in post-season games, I know about small sample size, the broken rib, but this is a worrisome trend.
Hoffman has almost no margin for error because of decrease in the speed of his fastball. I think the Padres should be prepared organizationally to move Bell into the closer’s role next year if need be.
Scott Hairston should be given a real opportunity to keep the left fielder’s job.
Brady Clark emphasized the need for a real centerfielder. With the ballparks in SF, SD, Arizona, and Colorado, the team needs a CF who can cover a large amount of ground.
Second base needs to be addressed. Does Matt Antonelli have a chance with a good spring?
Starting pitching: I definitely agree the team should plan on having 7 starters because injuries will occur. Does anyone know which pitchers are available?
More stats on Trevor…
Because there is a lot of one year small sample size fluctuation, especially for the low number of innings relievers pitch, I’m going with three year periods of Trevor’s stats below (leaving out the injury year, 2003, when he only had 9 IP).
Years Fair RA Avg ARP Avg Pads ARP Rank Pads ARP/IP Rank
05-07 2.96 11.8 3.33 4.00
01-04 2.75 15.0 2.33 3.00
98-00 2.41 22.2 1.33 2.33
The trends are unmistakeable. I’ll repeat what I said last night. Trevor is still useful in the pen. But the time is long past when he should be used as if he were the best in the pen, or the guy you go to when the game is on the line.
Trevor has consistently been used in the highest leverage situations the last several years, when, in fact, he has arguably not been the best Padres reliever in any season since 1999, the last season he led the Padres in either ARP or ARP/IP.
All of this, really, is part of a larger issue… the effect of the Save rule on bullpen usage. That is why the Padres use Hoffy as they have (and is no different than the way 29 other teams use their relievers). It’s ridiculous that a counting stat warps proper usage of a team’s bullpen. But ultimately you pay a price… and we just found out how steep that price can be.
85 – he did get one out, the final play was a sac fly. Technically two outs though it wasn’t scored that way. You can be bitter and broken all you want, but for me I’ll never talk bad about Hoffman, at least not in rational, normal thinking.
Okay, I gotta get Mozilla downloaded, I guess. Those stats are:
Years
Fair RA
Avg ARP
Avg Padres ARP Ranking
Avg Padres ARP/IP Ranking
Sorry…
Hoffman hasn’t been used in the highest leverage situations the past few years.
In fact, if I were to bet, I’d bet Meredith has pitched in the highest leverage situations, you know the Inning doesn’t count as scoring runs in the 6th is just as important as the 9th….when is the last time Hoffman came in with runners on?
On another topic anyone else notice that Peavy received the best bullpen support of any starter in baseball(according to BP) he also received the highest run support on the team.
Who would you have rather seen last night instead of Hoffy? Should they have left Thatcher in? gone to Cameron? Meredith (who pitched for 4 straight days), Hampson?
I dont think Hoffy is done, he was 2nd in the CY young last year and an allstar in both of the last two yearshe will be the closer next year and retier after that. Maybe its a fluke that he has not done well in big games.
I’ll repeat: Hoffman pitched in the lowest leveraged situation last night – he came in with a 2-run lead and nobody on base. Can’t say the same for Bell, Thatcher and Brocail, can we?
You can argue that BB should have pulled him after Tulo’s hit.
86: I think Antonelli has a chance, but you gotta go get a guy like Castillo, Iguchi or Loretta to fill in for a year if he cant. All 3 are decent in the field and with the bat and would be good bench guys is Antonelli comes out tearing up ST.
Your right on for Hairston, he deserves a shot because he proved it. Not like Termel who got a shot because we couldnt find anyone else.
CF… If you can get Cam to sign a short deal he is our best bet. he has proved to be one of the best defensive CF in the game and i dont see many other options we have.
Here is a good link for the FA class in ‘08 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html
92: hoff should had pulled himself. He had to know he didnt have it didnt he?
The one issue I have with signing Cammy to a short term deal is that it only plugs a hole and prolongs of having to deal with the real issue of not having any viable CF for the years to come.
#5, 15: Go nuts…
http://www.cafepress.com/ducksnorts/3776975
re 92: So we’re going to have the same every day lineup again next year…..ugh no thank you.
I’m fine with them playing Antonelli and/or Headley if they can get a legit CF and fix the starting rotation. A playoff team which is centered around pitching and defense shouldn’t be playing Blum, Clark, Cassell and Tomko in September.
97: Exactly, which is why we need to get a few legit starters this offseason.
90 & 92: I’m not specifically arguing about Hoffy’s use last night (altho’, yes, I would have pulled him for Meredith), but his usage throughout the season.
And, BP measures leverage as follows and by their measure Trevor has led the Padres in leverage each of the last four years.
“LEV – Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mopup innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in the 9th inning).
Mathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game.”
32 & 33: Yes, you need evidence. You cannot take things based on personal perception and accept them as fact.
Mark, if you really believe you can extrapolate that Trevor is not good under pressure, in the clutch, in big games, or in the playoffs based on those numbers in just 13 IP in 12 Games, you’re completely lost on the concept of small sample size.
If, for example, you’re going to condemn his ability based on 2 IP in 2 playoff games (since in the other 10 playoff games he only gave up one run in 10 IP), you must believe Scott Brosius is a Baseball God since he hit .471 with an .824 SLG during the 1998 WS. Neither is the case.
36 & 37: Yes, declining K rates and increasing BB rates are definitely an area where you can see a negative trend; however, these rates have not yet manifested as an inability to do the job he’s being paid to do. Yes, they decidedly have made him a less dominant pitcher, but we all knew that already, or should have known it. I just don’t see that as being what many people are saying. They seem to be saying he’s completely shot, and I don’t buy it.
TW, did you notice his DH numbers on BP? Despite his decreasing ability to keep hitters off base and from making contact reflected in his K’s and BB’s, he’s still putting up negative Delta H numbers.
Generally, this is deemed to be luck, but when you look at a guy like Trevor who has put up negative numbers in 12 of 16 seasons with one season of 0, I have to think he’s having an impact on the hitter’s ability to put the ball in play for a hit. And again his past four seasons of Delta H are better than his 4 seasons prior to surgery.
No argument you can find a decline or negative trend in those K and BB figures, but I still see him getting the job done in the 9th, with no one on, and a lead, at a high rate one more year.
Pat, WOW!!!
I understand sample size very well and you’re playing semantics comparing part of Brosius’ post season resume with Hoffman’s ENTIRE post season resume.
I understand you want to stick up for the guy, we all wish he had another 1-2 good years left in him but it’s getting about time to face facts.
-Yes it is only 12IP, but those are the most important 12IP he’s had without a ton of success. I don’t see why you have a problem with me saying he hasn’t pitched as well in the post season as he does during the regular season, its a fact. You asked for numbers, I posted them.
-More importantly: Hoffman’s in the decline phase of his career. That K rate is starting to match what we all visually see, a pitcher who doesn’t generate any swing and misses any more. It is getting time for the Padres to start making other plans. They can no longer afford to turn the ball over to him in the 9th and start packing up the equipment.
96 – giddyup. I plan order one, hang onto it and burn it in a ritualistic ceremony as soon as the Pads make the playoffs next year.
No, Mark, you don’t understand it. You’re still trying to draw a conclusion about Trevor’s clutch/big game/post season performance based on 13 IP. You can’t becasue there isn’t enough data there to draw a conclusion from. The numbers in that small of a sample show nothing other than randomness and luck.
Trevor’s ENTIRE post season resume is 13 IP, Brosious picked up 17 AB’s in the 1998 WS; it’s as reasonable a comparison as your assertion that you can draw a conclusion on Trevor based on 13 IP.
Yes, Trevor is in decline; no, 2 blown saves, despite the horrible timing of their occurence, is not evidence he’s done or that he can’t pitch in big games. I hope this helps clarify what I’m saying.
102: Hoff has this last year in him and we need to take care of it properly. We need to groom Bell and give Hoff the chance to still save games and go out on a good note. He is definitely not the same guy, but he deserves to go out starting next year and get the chance to save games one last year. If he cant make adjustments then the club will have to.
I’m not drawing any conclusions about Hoffman based on his post season performance, I’m simply saying he hasn’t been good. Sorry, thats a fact. He’s been worse in the post season then regular season.
It would sure be nice to have a larger sample size to draw on, but unless you’re a Yankee/Red Sox there isn’t going to be a big enough sample to be statistically significant. So do we completely discount it?
Sorry I’m not comfortable acting like the playoffs don’t exist, especially when his post season experience is creeping up on what amounts to 2 months of work during the regular season.
You seem to be missing the point on the K rates and BB rates and his decline. Most of us are saying they better start to think of other options to bail him out when the going gets tough because if Hoffman loses much more stuff he’s Germano out there.
Doesn’t seem like someone I want trying to protect a 2 run lead with the playoffs on the line.
101: The question then becomes, how many pitchers can get that job done – 1 inning, with no one on, and a lead, at a high rate one more year. And, by averages, who’s going to face the worse half of the lineup half the time.
The pitcher who is going to be the best at that is the same kind of pitcher who is going to be the best at every other important pitching job. He strikes out a lot of hitters, doesn’t walk many, and keeps the ball in the park. The fact that lesser pitchers can succeed in the role suggests the role itself is easier to perform than many believe.
101, again: I find it hard to counter a serious, steady decline in rate peripherals with a counting stat. It gets close to Joe Carter territory. Sure, he had a 290 OBP and a 391 SLG in 1990, but darnit, he drove in 115 runs!! That tells us that RBI are a function of opportunity more than skill or performance, just like saves.
Pat
I see you argueing sample size and what not but unfortunantly Trevor has become rich pitching (mostly) 1 inning at a time. So 12 or 13 innings that you guys keep stating doesn’t look to me to be all that small considering the role. While I don’t think Trevor is completely washed up because I think he can still be useful in the right situation, it looks obvious to me he is no longer our best option at his position.
107: I think I read before that 70% of the time a run doesn’t score in an inning, and I think it’s upwards of 95% that 3 runs don’t score. Just on average alone I think the save stat is pretty useless.
108: The job may be easier at times but that does not discount the pressure that the closer faces every time he is on the mound which is not measurable and obviously I cant really back it statisically. I am sure there make been alot of shut down relievers that struggled once they became “closers”
YO … can somebody go check this out and explain it to me?
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20071001&content_id=2244506&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=col
The video (link labeled “Carroll drives in Holliday “) has been updated … and audio dub’d with an “explanation” … which doesn’t make any sense to me … WHAT????? HELP?????
112: The Rockies are best just leaving it as questionable and not inflating the issue. Saying “He see’s that he tags home plate and calls him safe” in the end sounds like BS to me.
OT … from mlb.com …
With Helton, after 1,577 games, and Diamondbacks infielder Jeff Cirillo, after 1,617 games, going to the playoffs this season, the Mets’ Damion Easley, who has played 1,593 games, has the unwanted distinction of playing the most games without experiencing the postseason.
112.
The freeze frame CLEARLY shows he isn’t touching home and the explanation guy says the ump can see he touched it? What?!?!?!
Listen guys congrats on winning the game you have a really good team and you had an epic run to end the season but F YOU if you think you can freeze frame the perfect evidence of Holliday not touching home and then tell me he did touch it!
112- what a bs explanation – it totally contradicts what the video is showing in freeze-frame! I hadn’t seen that camera angle, and from it it’s blatantly obvious that Holliday’s hand never touches the plate.
Does anyone know what the baseball rules are on retirement papers? Are the Padres still on the hook for Trevor’s guarantee contract in ‘08 if he decides “you know what, I don’t have it anymore, I’m done.” Trevor retiring before ‘08 is not outside the realm of possibilities.
117: I’d hate to see Trevor go out now. The guy is all class. And he’s still good, tho’ not great anymore, and still useful. I just want to see him, and the entire bullpen, used optimally – or, at least, more optimally.
113 … it’s not the Rockies … it’s MLB (via mlb.com) … and it “sounds like BS” because it *is*! Clearly we need to “let it go” … and I will … eventually. I understand that ump’ing MLB is *very hard* to do … but this audio-dub seems fishy to me … an aroma of “cover up”? I guess I’m wanting the ump to say “I saw him touch the plate, and I made a mistake with the late and ho-hum safe signal” … isn’t that where we’re at? If so, let’s say so …
119: Its a Rockies correspondent from MLB.com
118 … uh, I’d rather vent about the video … but now I’m confused … what is “more optimally”? Is that like “giving more than 100%”? And it’s even more confusing when folks add that he’s not been used in the “high leverage” situations like Bell has. And if we can’t figure that all out in retrospect, I don’t blame BB for not figuring it out in real time …
112- uh, they’ve changed the video! There is no longer the weird Mlb.com guy’s voice.
122 … WOW, you’re right! See! See! Something’s fishy!!!
It’s a second dubber… doing voice-over from the grassy knoll.
111: I agree. One of the defining traits of Trevor Hoffman is that he’s been able to excel in the closer role due almost entirely to his mental makeup. There are any number of guys with better stuff who just can’t handle the pressure. Armando Benitez comes to mind.
107: I would disagree that the best closer is the guy who’s the best at every other pitching job. Often it’s the guy with one (Rivera) or two (Gagne) dominant pitches and/or the guy who throws too hard to pitch 7 innings (Wagner). There’s no doubt Trevor would fail as a starting pitcher but his unique skills and psyche are perfect for a closer.
Closer is a tough job. I hate when people say “save” is an over-valued stat. Ask any baseball manager, the toughest 3 outs to get are the last 3.
How would you guys feel about making an offer to a guy like Tom Glavine? I know he is most likely to stay on the east coast but I would love a quality left hander in the rotation. It would be a good story for he and Maddog to be re-united and he I feel is still a better option than Wells was this year. We’ll see I guess but just throwing out a name I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at. He might be a good guy to have around some of our young guns also.
127: If your going for vet lefty I’d prefer to go get Pettite but i dont think either would come here.
“more optimally”… okay, that does suck. How about closer to optimum? Which, I think, is pretty simple. You start by tossing away formulas like:
7th inning, of course, Thatcher (or, last year = Meredith)
8th, of course, Bell (last year = Linebrink)
9th, of course, Trevor
And instead going with the game situation (score/inning/outs/runners on base/etc), and the batters coming up, and choosing a reliever based on those things. And pretending that the Save rule was never invented.
123: if you watch the video on the MLB.com home page the dubbing is still there
129: Amen to that. I hate the specialized 7th and 8th inning thing. Closer is one thing, but there is no way only one guy should pitch the 7th or 8th no matter what
126.
I think today save is a totally over-valued stat. Coming in with nobody on and getting 3 outs with up to a 3 run lead to me is not that impressive. When guys were going 2+ innings coming in with people on base and stuff saves were earned todays save is really more of an “Agent’s” money stat to me. Not saying Trevor or Rivera and the top guys are not great and don’t do a good job at what they do I just think the stat is really over-valued.
Prime example is last night Heath Bell and Joe Thatcher even Doug Brocail pitch really admirable games with many more pressure pitches than Trevor threw and they get no type of stat that matters.
129: I agree 100%!
129.
That’s a hell of an idea!
132: Yes but generally your closer comes in earlier in a tie like the Rockies closer did and pitch in that pressure situation. I think bud was more confident in Bell and Thatcher at that point than Hoffman though. Especially when he ran Bell out there for that 3rd inning.
i dont think the save is overvalued at all, especially with the padres i believe there were probably more 1 and 2 run saves than 3 run saves. i didnt look it up though.
Tom Glavine…sigh haven’t we learned anything about aging pitchers from watching Hoffman the past couple of years?
Those declining K rates do come back to haunt you eventually.
They need another starter capable of being better then league average(hopefully 2)
126: perhaps not every reliever can thrive in the 9th, but many, many can and do. Every year, we see guys emerge out of nowhere and do extremely well in that situation. What makes them different from their colleagues in the pen? I’d say it’s 10% ability, and 90% opportunity!
So when Ron Washington says he needs a “proven closer”…
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070922&content_id=2224256&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex
…after the great job CJ Wilson and Benoit did this year, you know, it’s just nuts!
Missed that video, and the page no longer exists. What was it about?
A good look at the ump’ing in last nights game by BP’s Joe Sheehan … (sub reqd) …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6780
Here’s the key paragraph …
In real time, and in replays, it certainly didn’t appear that Holliday was able to touch the bag. McClelland’s slow “safe†call and Holliday’s reaction—he seemed to be anticipating an “out†call and was surprised by McClelland—support that idea. There are alternate explanations for both of these; McClelland may have been verifying that Barrett dropped the ball, and Holliday was clearly shaken up on the play. However, my best judgment is that Holliday missed the plate, McClelland blew the call, and the two teams are tied 8-8 with two outs in the bottom of the 13th.
Grady Fuson coming up on 1090….interesting to see if “the Coach” decides to ask any decent questions about players actually in the Padres organization, or if he asks about Dodgers/Giants players like normal
125: Hoffman hasn’t gotten by on, er, moxie. He had a mid-90s fastball for part of his career, a Bugs Bunny change, and in his best years had absolute pinpoint command.
The best starting pitchers, what do they do? Strike people out, don’t walk people, keep the ball in the park. They need more pitches to do it, and they need to have stamina, but those are the consistent earmarks of great SP.
The best relievers (non-closers), what do they do? Strike people out, don’t walk people, keep the ball in the park. They don’t need a starter’s variety of pitches, they don’t need the ability to throw 60 pitches an outing, but their earmarks are the same.
The best closers, what do they do? You know what they do. They strike people out, don’t give out free passes, keep the ball in the park.
126: You may hate it, but it doesn’t make it less true. And nobody’s saying it’s easy, just not mystically hard. Managers will also tell you they prefer Joe McEwing to Jack Cust.
135.
If Closer genereally came in earlier like when the game was tied they would get wins and not saves if their teams won the game.
All I am saying is that I am not that impressed by closers these days because they usually come in with no runners on and only get 3 outs. If you have a guy with good stuff come into a game late against hitters that have been seeing other pitchers all game long and get 3 outs you shouldn’t be surprised. They should totally be able to do that. Closers are not just scrubs they are good pitches with good pitches and good stuff. If starters have to 5 innings to get a win closers should need a little more than 3 outs IMO.
138: look on the mlb.com home page
“the coach” makes no sense:
-the team needs to figure out what to do about 2B, CF and C
-Bard is the unsung hero of the ballclub, he had a great year
How do those 2 go together? He’s arbitration eligible so you resign him and move on.
138 … the page link’d to from #112 is still there … as is the video of the last play … all that’s changed is some audio dub that was a weak attempt to “explain” what might have been going thru the ump’s mind … so weak that it’s now gone …
One other thing I just noticed in the video replay is that the Rockie-on-deck seems to run up to Holliday after he misses the plate in a way that suggests he is about to urge Holliday to go back and touch the plate … just sayin’ … they know … they *all* know …
131: If it makes sense to have a specialized role for the 9th, it makes sense to have it earlier. Players seem to prefer defined roles, a lot like employees in other businesses do. I wish the Padres, or some team, would go a different route. Some kind of bullpen rotation, but you wouldn’t be able to hide weaker arms as easily.
135: There usually will be more 1 and 2 run saves, because those are 2/3 of the possible save situations. Managers go to their closer in tie games at home. You almost never see it on the road.
146: If you look on the home page the dub is still there.
139: That’s exactly right. McClellan isn’t waiting to see if Barrett has the ball, it’s been obvious since the jump that he doesn’t.
Here’s another paragraph from Joe Sheehan’s article (link @ 139) that’s relevant to the other topic-du-jour …
Hoffman’s struggles give us another opportunity to poke holes in the closer myth. After all, if being a closer—getting three outs with a small lead 40 times a year—is about will and desire and perseverance, shouldn’t Hoffman have been able to end one of those two games in a dogpile? I can’t imagine someone not having the desire to win a game that would clinch a postseason berth. If non-physical skills are so critical to being a closer, and Hoffman is one of the exemplars of that role, then why aren’t the Padres playing any more baseball this year?
The fact is, closers are just relief pitchers with a narrowly-defined role, and the way to become a closer, to be branded one, is to pitch well the first four or five times you’re put in that role. It’s baseball’s version of witch-dunking. There’s no special skill involved beyond the ones that make you a good relief pitcher—two good pitches, an ability to warm up quickly, and above-average strikeout, walk, and home-run rates. The mythology that surrounds the role is a joke, and a detriment to the game as a whole. Trevor Hoffman didn’t fail as a man last night; he failed as a pitcher.
… well said, Joe!
149 … I don’t understand what you mean by “the jump”?
145: The Coach reminds me of a nice, kindly uncle with huge gaps in his education.
Here’s a question for Fuson: Given that our last 2 first round pitchers are broken, do you still believe college pitchers have a durability edge?
147: I think the 9th is special though and requires a guy that can handle that pressure. As much as I’d like to see no specialization, its not going to happen in the 9th. We can argue against it all we want, but its not going to change the mind of management.
One thing I’m already getting very sick of are all the comments from the Rockies and commentators that the blown call in the 13th just evened the score from Atkins’ blown “home run” of Jake earlier. I have yet to see a replay that shows that ball went out of the park, while there is pretty indisputable video evidence that Holliday didn’t touch home plate.
152: His answer, “Well of course they are in college.”
That would be a great question ask him, be he will avoid it and talk around it. I dont mind taking the college kids early, its the lack of taking high risk guys in the later round that tends to bug.
153: That’s also true of the earlier roles.
Some guys may not be able to handle the pressure, but as dprat pointed out earlier, lots of guys who were described as having “questionable” makeup as starters turn into dominant closers (Nathan, Gagne). And some guys are just generic relievers most of their careers before they somehow become insensitive to 9th inning pressure (Jones). And other guys have the reputation of blowing big games even when they have seasons when they don’t (Benitez). In one single postseason Benitez went from Icewater (against Cleveland) to Choker (NY).
Do you honestly believe Benitez, even at his peak, was as mentally able to handle the 9th as Trevor, at any point in his career?
I’ve watched Trevor very carefully this year and what’s really struck me about him is just how ballsy he is about throwing that BP fastball for a strike on the first pitch. Getting that first pitch strike on the outside corner is absolutely critical for him because it sets up the change. I remember writing about one game where a batter hit a bomb off that pitch for an out but he came right back and threw the exact same pitch to the next hitter. A lot of pitchers, especially guys with 86mph fastballs, would get the yips and try to throw a slider or something on the next pitch.
The save is an overrated (I say worthless) stat but that doesn’t mean there’s no mental component to closing. There’s a mental component to pitching under pressure (ask Jake Peavy) and there’s a lot of pressure in a save situation. Of course you have to be a good pitcher and do the right things but part of that is being able to handle the pressure. Just because we can’t put some kind of brainwave meter and measure his stress levels doesn’t mean it’s not there.
For all you people arguing that Hoffman is the problem and that he is done and should retire — stop being ridiculous. Take a look at his split stats here http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=hoffmtr01&year=2007
Obviously he had huge differences between the first and the second half. However, some things jump out at you. His walk rate rose 75% in the 2nd but it was still only at 2.2BB per 9. His K rate also jumped 24%, from a bad 5.5/9 to 8.9/9. He didn’t give up HR the whole season, only one in each half. The number that really jumps out at you is his Batting Avg on Balls in Play (BABIP). In the first half it was .188, the second .387. That could be an indicator of declining stuff, but it also might have been bad luck.
He was terrible last night and he hasn’t been great in the postseason in his career but let’s not make too much out of a couple of games. Granted it was a high visibility, high importance game but people tend too make too much out of only a handful of games. Relievers are notorious for having good years followed by bad years, hopefully this is just a bad year for Trevor and he’ll bounce back. Certainly closers with way worse track records (Todd Jones, Joe Borowski) have bounced back after terrible years to have good seasons.
BP fastball, not according to the coach……he says Hoffman throws 87-89mph.
I haven’t seen those numbers in a while from Hoffman
If you don’t think there is a mental component to pitching, especially so in the closer’s role, please see the careers of guys like:
Donnie Moore
Mitch Williams
Brad Lidge
Armando Benitez
Guiermo Mota
Mike Timlin
Byung-Hyun Kim
Brandon Lyon
etc…
All successful pitchers, some even successful closers for a short time, but all could not handle the pitching duties in the 9th inning, mostly due to mental make-up. When teams put many of them in their old, middle inning roles, they thrived once more…
I tend to believe that the self-selection for pitching under pressure has largely happened before a pitcher reaches the majors. It’s not that it’s not a factor, it’s that those who can’t do it, for the most part anyway, have washed out before ever getting to put on a major league uniform.
The Padres have a huge advantage over other teams because their closer isn’t their best reliever. I think it’s been pretty clear over the past few years that Trevor is at best the Padres 2nd best reliever. However, by using him only in the 9th inning, they have the ability to use their better reliever in situations where they have more impact in the game. Last night was a perfect example of that. If you looked at the situation when each reliever came in the game, you might think that Trevor is the Padres 4th best reliever. Not only that, by having Hoffman get all the saves and the glory in the bullpen, it keeps your better reliever’s salaries down since no one knows about relievers that don’t get saves.
157: This is a case of people overrating what they see everyday and overvaluing what they see on TV.
Benitez has a career ERA+ of 139 over 14 years, almost all of it closing. Hoffman’s is 149. Both very good, Hoffman’s slightly better, but that’s a smaller difference than the gap between Maddux and Glavine for their careers. The big difference is that Hoffman has avoided the late career fade that dragged Benitez’s numbers down. Through their first 12 seasons they were even closer. Benitez had a bunch of seasons with 1 to 4 blown saves. Just like Hoffman. He had four seasons with 6 blown saves or more, including his terrible time with SF in 2006. Hoffman’s had…..four seasons with 6 blown saves or more. How is “Mind of Steel” Hoffman more robust than “House of Glass” Benitez?
Benitez has the rep of a headcase for failing on the national stage in high-pressure games. Sound like anyone else we know?
If it’s unfair to call Hoffman a choker for his few postseason failings (which it is), it’s unfair to say that Benitez didn’t have what it takes. They’re scarily similar in their regular and postseason results.
160: Benitez was a closer eerily similar to Hoffman for 12 of his 14 seasons. It was only his last 2 that were really bad, which Hoffman has avoided having.
When the average major league career length is 5.6 years, 4 years or so as a closer is pretty good.
A lot of those guys also failed because their stuff was short or they got hurt. The list of pitchers who came out of nowhere and had good careers as closers is at least as long, probably longer.
Schlom, you’re right, half year stats, especially for a relief pitcher, are virtually worthless.
So look at the longer term trends in posts 36, 37, 44, and 87. And here’s one more:
K:BB
2004 – 6.6
2005 – 4.5
2006 – 3.8
2007 – 2.9
162: That’s a very good point. I say that because I made the same point last year
Because Trevor is the designated 9th inning guy it allowed Bochy to use Cla Meredith in some incredibly high leverage situations (bases loaded, no outs in the 6th), which is exactly what sabermetric doctrine says you should do with your best reliever. Same thing with Bell this year.
163: Benitez still throws harder than Hoffman, or he did last year (is he still active?). How did Hoffman avoid the late career fade? I submit it was through the mental aspects of the game, learning to pitch with diminished stuff and having the guts to make those pitches in tight situations.
I’m sure you’re right about Benitez, I remember thinking it was typical New York a-holeism to make him the goat but on the other hand he always seemed like a guy who got really wild under pressure and then grooved a fastball.
Ooops, just realized 165 was already covered in 37.
TW (or is it WoF?), in your response to my Delta H post you discounted it as a counting stat versus a rate stat, and in 140 you want high K, low BB and low HR rates. I think this is fair enough. Well, TH has no doubt lost the K rate, that much is plain; however, his BB/IP has delcined over the past four years and is at a .206 ratio versus .251 for the prior four year period and versus .281 for his career. HR/IP has also declined (Petco at work, perhaps, but the Q was not a Homer Haven either). Any consideration to his offsetting his decreasing K’s by improving these other two areas?
166: When we’re talking about two years of difference over careers more than twice as long as the norm, I seriously doubt there’s a mental factor at work. In 2004, just 3 years ago, Benitez had a….
….wait for this, it’s amazing…..
317 ERA+. No kidding. I just about fell out of my seat. That’s a late career surprise. It’s a better ERA+ by far than any Hoffman ever had. The difference has just been 2005 and 2007, when he went 92 and 81. In between (2006) he was back at 128.
I don’t see how there’s any difference between getting frustrated and grooving a 96 mph fastball and missing with a 85 mph straight fastball that gets launched by Scott Brosius. The game’s blown either way.
67: “Had OG got a better arm, his throw wouldn’t have so much arch to it from shallow right.”
Are you seriously complaining about Giles’ arm after he threw out the runner at home plate? That’s just asinine.
168.
his BB rate may be declining but that may also be a product of the 85mph up in the zone fastball he is constantly bringing to the mound with him. What does his BAA look like? I have no idea.
All I know is TH looks more hittable now than he ever has. Ever since last season in that stupid Dodger come back game I have been on pins and needles every time hells bells gets the call. People lay off the change since he doesn’t throw it for strikes and sit on a very hittable fastball that he seems to having trouble locating these days.
166: And yet we still have these leverage numbers from BP…
2007:
Hoffman 2.26
Linebrink: 1.98
Bell: 1.70
Meredith: 1.35
Thatcher: 1.13
2006:
Hoffman 2.36
Linebrink: 1.91
Meredith: 1.37
2005:
Hoffman 2.11
Otsuka 1.94
Linebrink: 1.48
2004:
Hoffman 2.17
Otsuka: 1.58
So there’s no way the best relievers are being used, more than occasionally, in the highest leverage situations.
168: It’s only WoF today.
I wasn’t discounting Hoffman’s Delta H, although it has varied quite a bit. I was discounting “doing his job,” holding a lead by pitching 1 inning with no one on, which earns him a save.
The declining K and K/BB rates trump any slight decrease in his BB/IP numbers. He didn’t walk many to begin with, his effectiveness is not going to be substantially impacted by walking fewer. He does have the low BB and low HR rates, no question, but those are only two legs of the tripod. What happens when one leg (K) is too short? The darn thing sits funny or falls over. He’s not finished yet, and we’ve certainly seen closers throwing 95 with 12 K/9 blow big saves before. But you can’t argue the handwriting is on the wall.
170: That was a tough play because the ball got on him so fast, he was basically throwing flat-footed. And it beat him and he was out.
173: Fair enough. Nice chatting with you.
126: They’re not the toughest three outs. Someone did a study on this recently, I think. I’ll try to find it.
170: It was a deadly accurate throw but not the strongest throw he has ever made. I normally l ike Giles’ arm.
KRS1, it sounds like you’re suggesting that makes him more hittable and batters who used to walk are now getting base hits, H/IP is up slightly from .806 to .821. Not sure if it’s significant or related to your hypothesis or not.
His BAA from MLB from 1999 through 2007 (leaving out 2003) is:
.197
.224
.216
.234
.211
.235
.205
.228
The only thing which looks like a trend or pattern there seems to be good year, not so good year, good year, not so good year, etc.
177: My point is that it was still good enough to get the runner, so why the complaint?
176: They are the toughest 3 outs on most occasions for the pitcher. There is no way to judge the kind of pressure that is on those last 3 outs. Depending on the situation another inning could be tougher, but the pressure that goes with the final 3 makes them the toughest on most occasions in my mind. A study is just a theory. I believe the theory that more times than not they are the toughest.
180: The 17th, 9th and 12th outs are the three toughest outs to get. This is based on how tough those outs have been to get historically. It’s not a theory, it’s a record of what has actually happened.
Oh and the link: http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2007/09/25/the-toughest-out-study-redux/
179: Well a better throw without the air under it beats Holliday there even more and the tag is made and not with a bad slide/good block and a mis call. I am not dis-creditting the effor Brian put into that play, but to say the throw couldnt had been better is wrong aswell. Barrett made a good play with his feet, but the non-call would not had happened had he hung onto the ball during the initial tag.
172: Sure the average looks like that because Trevor only pitches the 9th and the other guys pitch all over the place. But the fact is that they all were brought into very high leverage situations at times, situations that you would ideally want your best pitcher in.
Anyway, I’m undecided on whether Trevor is done but I don’t want to see him as the unquestioned 9th inning save guy anymore. He needs to accept that Bell is going to get some save opportunities next year and Trevor is going to have to work the 8th. The Padres need to see if Bell can have the same results in the 9th as he’s had in the 7th and 8th. Who knows, he might even be able to more than 3 outs once in a while.
I like that we have 170 comments in here after a devastating loss. We’re not ready to call it quits.
179.
Thanks. Yeah the numbers were not really what I thought they would be. It seems to me from watching virtually every game is that he doesn’t spot his fastball nearly as well as he used to. He also seems to me to be throwing it a lot more than usual (though I don’t know if that is really the case). When he misses with that pitch anywhere near the zone he gets killed.
A study, if it has any value at all, is not a theory, but a test of one or more theories. It is actual evidence, which may lend credence to a given theory… or not.
181: Ok that is a cute study and a fun read, but it really doesnt prove anything without fail. I guess I feel the final 3 are the 3 toughest consecutive outs.
One thing on the Leverage Indez — they aren’t entirely correct because obviously the later you pitch in a game the higher the leverage will be. Going 1-2-3 in the 9th will be higher then 1-2-3 in the 8th but it doesn’t take the batters into account. The most important situation in a game might happen in the 6th but it’s leverage will still probably be lower then someone coming in with a 2 run lead in the 9th facing the bottom of the order.
I think a lot of people are misusing the stats on Hoffman. There is no doubt that he’s not at his peak anymore but he’s not that bad. You can look at Mariano Rivera stats and I’m sure they are declining a ton from his peak but he’s still an effective reliever. Papelbon’s numbers are way down from last season’s, does that mean that he’ll be even worse next year? Sure it would have been nice if he closed out last night and Saturday’s games. But move those blown saves to earlier in the season and we wouldn’t be talking about this. The fact is that he’s under contract for next season, he is still mostly effective and he enables Black to use his best relievers most effectively, not to justify some arbitrary rule.
This is completely off topic but has anyone ever run across any studies on frequently injured players? Specifically, what is it that makes guys like Milton Bradley so fragile, and is there a precedent for that kind of player to become more durable?
Isn’t it gut check time? We’re all in agreement that Trevor is not only an irreplaceable part of Padres history but by all accounts a stand-up guy. But there are healthy, hungry arms on the staff who could be the next Papelbon with the right opportunity. The Pads need to shake it up and start growing young talent from within, rather than trying to wring out the last dollars from the weary arm of Trevor.
Move Bell or some other younger arm into the closer role while they’ve still got some fire and while Hoffman’s still on staff. Worst case scenario is that Hoffman keeps the closer role all season, and we’re no worse off than we were last night. Best case scenario is that like Clemens/Chamberlain, Hoffman helps to groom his successor and the Pads enter the second half with young new closer who’s got the perfect mix of ability and attitude.
188: I agree that Hoffman is “not that bad,” in fact, he’s someone I would want in the Padres bullpen next year. Just not the way he has been used in the past.
And Black is NOT using his pen as effectively as possible. In fact, he is almost as dependent on the one closer per inning, with specific innings assigned to specific guys regardless of game situation and batters coming up, yanking them after one inning, regardless of performance, as Bochy was. (note: I did say “almost” – no one is as slavish to the formula as Bochy, I think.) Again, not unique to Black or Bochy, but MLB SOP. And a formula that I think will cost you a game or two or more, year in, and year out.
Regardless of what the stats say about each pitcher’s effectiveness, the closer role includes a huge mental component. That is where Hoffman excells and what will make replacing him so difficult.
I think there have been many set-up guys promoted to closer who have not had near the success their prior stats would have predicted. (I’m sure lots of you have good examples, right?) You don’t know if a great reliever will make a great closer until he tries.
188: It’s not misusing the stats. It’s misunderstanding the difficulty, or rather than the relative ease, of any relieving gig. Relievers usually improve their peripherals because they’re working in short bursts, often with favorable platoons, compared to when they were starters. And they can survive with worsening peripherals because every outing is usually only an inning long, and it’s a lot harder to score 1 than to give up 0. And I do like that we use our better relievers earlier, but that’s actually an accident rather than a plan. It’s because Hoffman is now the 3rd or 4th best arm in the pen that we don’t use our best arm in the toughest situations. If he was our best reliever he’d still be working the 9th because he’s The Closer.
191: True, bullpen usage has not been optimized, but if it costs us a few games, it costs other teams a few games because as you pointed out it is pretty much an SOP. However, as someone pointed out earlier (TW?), players do seem to prefer set roles, which makes sense. It’s easier to prepare for performance if you have at least an approximate idea of when your performance is going to take place.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see our usage shift in the coming years with more focus on using better performers in more high leverage situations. All you have to do is look at the FO and see guys like Alderson and DePo to know the FO is aware of doing so; heck, they practically invented it. Still, I’ll bet it’s tough to convince guys like Black and Balsley, let alone a bunch of young pitchers, to move in that direction, and those are the two guys on the bench making the decisions during a game.
189 … send an email to Will Carrol @ BP with those questions … I’ll bet you get a good reply … especially if you’re a subscriber …
BA’s Cal League Top 20 Prospects is out …
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264944.html
… Antonelli @ #4, LeBlanc @ #12 … no mention of Blanks nor Huffman … hmmm …
192: How do we know that? We have cerebral, narrow-margin closers like Hoffman who outthink hitters, and we have closers like Bobby Jenks, and I’m not sure Bobby knows his own telephone number.
A lot of setup guys who “failed” as closers got about 3 chances to do it before being called “failures.” You blow 3 saves in the middle of a season and you’re the Established Closer, no biggie. Or blow 3 saves at the start of your career for a non-contending team that doesn’t have any other options, you might get a chance to right the ship. Blow 3 of your first 6 chances for an impatient team and you’re a failure without the mental toughness to compete.
192.
After what Heath Bell did last night I’m pretty sure he can deal with it. I’m pretty sure he can move mountains with his mind and stuff too. That dude is scary! We will never know until we throw him out there if he can deal with a blown save mentally like Trevor has been able to.
Before I say this next part I want it to be know that I have loved Trevor the same way that I love Tony Gwynn growing up but… If I was trying to make an argument against all the people talking about Trevor’s supreme mental ability it could very easily be pointed out that it takes a certain mentally stable mind to close out big games. Trevor has made a career out of racking up tons of saves on what was for a long time really bad teams and not exactly high pressure situations. He has also been a far different pitcher in big games or nationally televised games (World Series, All Star Game, Last night). It could be said that his mental stability is a factor when he is on the big stage and the heat is really on. San Diego is such a laid back town when it comes to sports than many other cities Trevor has never felt the pressure a guy like Rivera or Gagne or Wagner or even maybe Papelbon has.
Before people go around touting Trevor’s supreme mental capacity when compared to everyone else that’s something to think about. He has been able to get through an amazing career in a really laid back city for teams that were lean for a lot of years and has not cut it on the bigger stage.
196: BA got a lot of questions about Blanks. I don’t think I saw one on Huffman.
Basically, I would like to see Hoffman transition into a John Franco-like role, the once-great but increasingly unreliable middle reliever / sometimes-closer. It doesn’t have to happen right away, but I think anyone would agree that it isn’t in anyone’s best interest for him to stay at closer until he retires just because he’s been a great closer historically. And if he doesn’t agree to that, the Padres should consider moving him while he still has some value. If he’s really a team player, he would agree to the reduced role. If he doesn’t agree, he shouldn’t be here anyway.
197, 198: My take isn’t specific to Hoffman and his success or lack thereof in given situations. I’m just saying that if closing were easy there would be a lot more guys having a lot more success doing it, whether they were pitching in game 1 of 162 or game 7 of the World Series. Regardless of the value of the save stat, there are few pitchers with anything near Hoffman’s success rate, right?
OT … Andruw will be FA … in case you had any doubts …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Av6CtqFhtMcoD2hKleLt2vo5nYcB?slug=ap-braves-ajonesgone&prov=ap&type=lgns
191, 194: I actually think Black did a pretty solid job with bullpen management, about as good as you can while still clinging to the closer in save situations for one inning usage. He showed good situational awareness, bringing in Meredith against righties when a ground ball was needed, Thatcher against lefties, Bell for the strikeout. I would have liked to have seen more Bell in say the sixth or seventh of a close game with runners on and less Bell in games with four run leads, but that’s just nitpicking. Black couldn’t really let guys other than Bell go multiple innings because all of them had significant weaknesses in situations like that (Meredith and Thatcher more likely to face opposite handed hitters, Brocail and Hoffman old, Cameron prone to wildness).
Black also did a good job not overreacting based on small sample sizes by mostly keeping Cameron and Hampson’s leverages low despite early success that was in large part due to luck.
201: Converting back to my non-medieval name.
There’s only going to be 30-odd “closers” a year, and those that do it well have the inside track on keeping their job. For every setup man who “failed,” often in a small sample, I’ll find a closer or two who came off the scrap heap and held the job for years.
Hoffman’s real selling point is longevity. San Diego hasn’t had a failed closer in 14 seasons because nobody else got a shot at the title. I’m not devaluing what he’s accomplished. He’s been a great to very good to good reliever for a long, long time. But a lot of failed closers fail for reasons other than mental toughness. Sometimes they don’t get a fair trial. Sometimes they get hurt. Sometimes they age fast.
As someone else wrote above, if people really think Hoffman’s mental toughness is what makes him successful, you have to explain why that toughness deserts him at very inconvenient times. And if those failures are just random bad luck, you have to add random good luck back into the equation for his successes.
The problem with “using Trevor in different ways” is the fact that he is effective in the 9th, and only the 9th. The Padres tried to move a veteran guy who got by with little “stuff” out of the 9th inning to earlier innings, and it didn’t work. His name was Rod Beck. He was lights out in 2003, and terrible in 2004.
Why? Because veteran pitchers know how to take hyped-up batters, who know the 9th is the team’s last chance to win, and are grinding their bat into sawdust and use their tension against them. That doesn’t work when the batters are more loose and relaxed, like… say in the 7th inning.
And please don’t tell me the only difference between Trevor’s first half and second half this year was BA on balls in play. Come on, now. I know some of us love stats on this blog, but a ton of hits Trevor gave up were CRUSHED somewhere. He was missing with location, take a look at the game last night… indicative of the second half of the season, his pitches were up and out over the plate and got hammered. So…. sorry, it was not “bad luck” as one writer put it.
204: I agree with all of that. I’m just saying (1) there’s more to closing than good stuff (which Hoffman certainly has/had), and (2) it won’t be easy to replace him.
The Padres may be in a great situation next year where Hoffman gets another 40 saves while Bell is used to get key outs in the 6th-8th and maybe eases into the closer role, too. How great would it be for Hoffman to have a good year next year and in some way pass Hell’s Bells over to Heath Bell for 2009 and beyond?
201: Well, in any given year, there are many who are quite successful as closers. Take Hoffman this year… saved 42 of 49. That’s not wuite at his career averages, but still pretty good. But of the 35 pitchers with 10 or more saves this year, 20 of them (57%) had save rates equal to or better than Hoffman’s 85.7%.
Hoffman has been amazingly consistent, had several great seasons, was very good for a long time – that’s why he’s an HOF lock. But in any given year, you have many guys who just need the opportunity to succeed. This year that includes such “proven closers” as CJ Wilson, Capps, Gregg, Hennessy, Accardo, Corpas, Myers, and Soria. Eight guys – previous experience: 8 career saves. That’s combined!
And given the opportunity, this year they converted 168 of 197 opportunities, or 85.3%.
And this happens pretty much every year.
I think it’s interesting that Jayson Stark over on ESPN.com named his LVP’s (least valuable players) for 2007, and two Padres are on the list:
Michael Barrett & Marcus Giles
Andrew Jones or Mike Cameron. Who is the better option ? Can they get either one for a decent price ? Neither deserves a fat deal but today you never know. With the expansive outfields of the West it is obvious that we always need a hawk in center.
Cameron vs Jones is an easy question if you ask me. Jones is younger. Jones has had a better career.
Given the choice I’d take Jones every single time no questions asked.
Anyone else hear Alderson on 1090…very glad to hear that they realize the rotation wasn’t good in the 2nd half. They need to upgrade the 4th/5th spots in order to get better.
Check this out… Wikipedia has a San Diego Sports Curse listing:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Diego_Sports_Curse
208: And I can’t argue with him, much as I’d like to dispute nearly everything that man writes.
209: Jones is the better player, cost is unknown.
210: It wasn’t a cohesive unit the last two months, it was Peavy, Maddux, and a loose collection of pitchers all traveling in the same direction. Like the Bluesmobile in the last five minutes of the movie.
I’m glad he’s saying we need to do more than put a league-average pitcher in Petco and save the money for the draft…..no, midseason acquisitions…..no, next year’s much more fertile free agent class. We’ll see how able they are to do it. Tomko would be an upgrade over this year’s #5s, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him penciled in at 4 and something like an Estes brought in for the bottom spot. And that would just suck.
We lost by a hair to the best team in the NL. If guys like Jimenez or Morales continue to develop than they will be a bitch to deal with for seasons to come.
God I hope Tomko isn’t back.
205: In 2000, Rod Beck pitched for the Red Sox. He had a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in a middle relief role. The fact that he performed poorly as a setup guy in 2004 after performing well as the Padres de facto closer probably had more to do with his personal demons and less with his innate ability to pitch setup.
Trevor has never been in a long-term setup role, so we don’t know how he’d do in that situation. I’m sure he’d do fine after an adjustment period.
214: Me too.
I havent looked too deeply into thier numbers but what about Freddy Garcia or Joel Pinero or Livan Hernandez?
Wait, what did Sandy say about free agent classes?
Wow, I just contributed to Wikipedia, mispellings and all, I have finally arrived. Hoffy is still a bum.
218 … give us a link!
Re: 43
This morning, McClellan’s documented good friend David Justice said on the largest sports station in southern california that when he talked to Tim later without a microphone around, Tim would admit that Holliday never touched home plate. That speaks to me, it truly does.
As to the delay thing? Delay, alright. But watch his face. Watch a replay and watch his face. HE MAKES A DECISION. And that decision is to end the game despite what he saw.
McClellan is and has been slow on ball and strike calls. But this was not that kind of call.
No, he knew what he was doing. What I can’t answer and only he can is why.
As to the legality of blocking the plate. Honestly, I’d have to look it up but I do believe you are correct. But I also know that I was never once called for obstruction or interference on a runner trying to score from third. And believe me, there were absolutely plenty of times I did it without the ball.
Ya know, Barrett should be pissed. The call is made correctly and Holliday is out? Barrett gets baseball iimmortality as the opposite of Ray Fosse.
Here’s comments from a friend of mine … non-Padre fan … huge baseball fan …
* First of all, there was no replay that showed clearly that he did NOT touch the plate. You certainly can’t see him touch it, but every single angle shows enough dust or some other body part in the way such that one can not definitively say one way or the other. If MLB had NFL-style instant replay, where the officials in the booth could only overturn if the replays were conclusive, they would *not* have overturned the call. I don’t think he touched it, but that’s not enough.
* The umpire, Tim McLelland, is famous for the delayed call. He does it on balls and strikes, and he does it on the bases. He has been doing it for 20 years. He is considered a very good umpire. I have no opinion on the matter. McLelland likely was going to call the runner out if Barrett had held on, and safe otherwise. When he saw the ball, that was it.
* The Padres were aided immeasurably by a controversial call earlier in the game when the umpire ruled that a Rockie’s hit did not clear the barrier for a home run, instead awarding a double. Again, I don’t think the replays were conclusive, but this call was on par with the play in the 13th.
* I don’t believe Barrett ever tagged him. He goes over to tag him, but just sort of gives up once he sees the safe sign. He never quite gets there.
* Hoffman gave up four consecutive rockets in the 13th. If the ump had called Holliday out, he likely would have given up a rocket to the next batter, sad to say.
Your mileage may vary, of course.
… which I think are all fair/valid points of view (ie. I agree with them, in fact, I’m 100% that Atkins’ “double” went over the fence)
Take this from a Dodger fan and Padre hater:
You fans have much to like about last night. It was a great game. You had some great performances, like Hairston, Gonzalez and Bell. Peavey was rolling with the punches without his best stuff. He kept it close early so you could pass Colorado. You haven’t played the Rockies in awhile. My team played them eight times in the last two weeks and lost every game leading up to this tiebreaker game. They beat us when we played well and killed us when we played poorly. The lineup is unstoppable and the pitching is not half bad. For most of ‘07, San Diego was good enough to win the division or at least the WC. But in the final month of the season, good enough wasn’t good enough.
Agnostic on the Holliday plating. I think he scored. The record books are less ambivalent. So it goes.
http://firejaymariotti.blogspot.com/2007/10/cry-about-it-some-more-pussy.html
*grin*
I guess I know that people are reading my stuff anyway…
LOL.
From the Denver Post:
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_7057912
I’m also being quoted by a guy on the Albany Times-Union website. I love this! Gang, remind me to write with my heart more often, will ya?
223: Wow. That’s one angry idiot there.
I have seen playoff statistics compared to regular season statistics before (they mean almost nothing — making a rash decision on Hoffman would be similar to trading Alex Rodriguez or Barry Bonds after a poor playoff performance.
But I have never, ever seen the All-Star Game being lumped with playoff games. Wow.
And I have never seen big games defined as one on national television.
First, Hoffman isn’t clutch. Now he’s not telegenic.
Also, Joe Sheehan is right in his comments about the mental makeup of relievers. Or the mental makeup of anyone else.
To mention Donnie Moore, as one poster did, is especially egregious.
Yes, Moore blew a big game as many reliever have.
But he didn’t kill himself because of it.
He had serious mental issues and serious family issues with his wife at the time. Moore was a troubled soul. That’s why he killed himself. I’m sure giving up the home run didn’t help him. But unfortunate events never help the mentally unstable.
I know, someone will say all of that meant he shouldn’t have been a closer. Bullshit.
Baseball isn’t about character. It’s about the ability to play baseball.
Clutch play isn’t about character. It’s about luck and the ability to play baseball.
And Jimmy Rollins shouldn’t win the MVP. Sure, he’s a leader and make a cool preseason prediction.
But he didn’t have the best season, when it comes to the ability to play baseball.
223
your responses on that website were hysterical. That’s good stuff
Kevin…since I was the poster who put Donnie Moore’s name up, I feel like I should respond…He was included because his spectacular failure seemingly rendered him useless as a pitcher, which goes directly to the mental make-up of a closer…I did not mention his unfortunate demise, nor did I make any reference to his personal life…just putting him in there with guys like Brad Lidge, Byung-Hyun Kim. or Mitch Williams as an example of how difficult it is to handle the closing job. It requires more than stuff, but also the mental ability to come back from failure and still handle the last 3 outs.
So we’ve got a handful of guys who, on anecdotal evidence, maybe lost the ability to “close” because of their mental makeup. Some of those pitchers lost the ability to pitch well, period, so it may have been the strain of pitching in the big leagues, rather than the strain of closing, that got to them. But most of the pitchers who lost the closing job were the same pitcher before and after, except there’s not an emotion-laden term like “blown save” to describe giving up 2 runs in the 7th inning. Actually the pitcher does get one, but nobody pays attention to it if he’s not the closer.
On the other hand, we’ve got an epic list of players who come out of nowhere and succeed in the closer’s role, often for long periods. This mental magic doesn’t seem all that uncommon. If anything, it’s the weaker mentality that seems rare.
Adding on to 230 with my right name…..
Every single day during the season we see hitters have good games despite being 0-5 or 0-4 the night before, sometimes having struck out with the winning runs on. That happens, without exaggeration, every day of the season. Nobody claims that all those hitters have remarkable mental strength, at least not remarkable in terms of the general population of major league baseball players.
Tim McCellen was on the Dan Patric show this morning (AM 570). He said he has seen the replay several times and he thinks that he got the call right because he has not seen a replay showing that he got it wrong.
He also said that he delayed his call because he wanted to see if Barrett held onto the ball or not, and when he saw the ball rolling away he called Atkins safe.
DP asked him if Barrett would have hung onto the ball then Atkins would have still been safe anyways because he touched the plate before Barrett applied the tag.
I dont know when 1090 is going to start playing the DP show in the afternoon but you amy want to toon in to see i they are going to play it, I think the interview starts about an hour and 20 min into the show.
Re: 232 Holliday not Adkins
224 … says it all, thanks for the link, Rich!
I especially like the observation about Hawpe … he saw … he knew … they all know … it’s done … take a breath … aaahhh … let it go … fun stuff …