IGD: Padres @ Brewers (30 Sep 07)
Sun, Sep 30, 2007
by Geoff Young
| time: | 11:05 a.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Brett Tomko (4-11, 5.39) vs Jeff Suppan (11-12, 4.57) |
| pre: | Padres.com, B-R.com |
Q: Brett Tomko or Jake Peavy in the finale?
A: As long as the Padres win, nobody will care.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 30, 2007 at 8:32 am
I like the Tomko idea, but it has one flaw. If we end up in some multi-team tie and have to play more than one playoff game it’s really going to hurt our chances to advance.
For that reason, I think Peavy today would be an option. I still like the Tomko idea however.
September 30, 2007 at 8:39 am
I’m feeling we go with Tomko. Just my take. Just gut feeling.
September 30, 2007 at 8:59 am
Debate is over…….Tomko is pitching.
September 30, 2007 at 9:06 am
Was there a debate? Buddy said Tomko would pitch yesterday after we lost.
Kinda of sad to see people giving up on Hoffman after Gwynn hits a VERY good pitch to tie the game. Trevor has had some trouble this year, but he is still one of the best in the business. He has one year left on his contract, you arent going to replace him that easily.
September 30, 2007 at 9:06 am
#3: The debate is over as long as the Padres win. If not, there will be a lot of second guessing, which would have been true regardless of who got today’s start.
September 30, 2007 at 9:08 am
#4: No debate. My point was that Bud Black is in a difficult spot. No matter who got the call, the only way he doesn’t get second guessed is if the Padres win.
September 30, 2007 at 9:08 am
Best thing to pull out of yesterday’s game is at least CY looked a little better. To have him around 95% the playoffs is key.
September 30, 2007 at 9:23 am
OT, I’ll be on BDD Talk Radio in about 10 minutes.
September 30, 2007 at 9:25 am
Geoff, point well taken. Let’s get the W today!!!
September 30, 2007 at 9:26 am
#8 : Sweet. I was headed to the beach but now I’m gonna have to delay.
September 30, 2007 at 9:42 am
Just listened to your BDD segment Geoff. Pretty good stuff.
Hitting the annual Garlic Festival here in Saugerties for a while, but I’ll be back for the game later.
September 30, 2007 at 9:44 am
6: Gotcha, good point. Lets just get it done and win now.
BTW, good stuff on the Blog Radio GY.
September 30, 2007 at 10:08 am
Fielder not in the starting lineup. That can’t hurt.
September 30, 2007 at 10:14 am
Mets and Marlins underway:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270930121
Also on XM 185.
September 30, 2007 at 10:17 am
I vote Tomko. Jake on 3 days did not work very well last time. The only way we get a 3 way tie is NY, PHL and COL all win. If any of them lose, two way tie. And we have Jake, fully rested for that game.
Let’s say each of those teams has a 70% chance of winning their games, because they are pumped up. The probability that all 3 win is .70 cubed, or 34%. If you bump it their expected winning percentage to 75%, than 42%. Sizeable odds, but still less likely than only having one game.
Also, if Jake is our best bullet in our gun and we spend it, and it is not working well, there is a ton of pressure on the hitters. I would prefer them knowing “Hey, let’s try to win this one, but we got Jake.” Hopefully that would lead to better pressing.
It reminds me of 1996, after winning the first two from LA, we were guaranteed the WC if we lost, division if we won. We went with our #4/5, Bob Tewskbury, and he pitched great and we won the division. Not exactly parallel, but reminiscent. Also, Tomko has won every game he has started for us. Small sample but
18 IP, 15H, 7 R/ER, 2 HR, 14k, 3 BB, 3.50 ERA
Anyway, does us no good, but today would be a lot more fun if we had not pitched 5 straight change ups to Gwynn.
September 30, 2007 at 10:18 am
Florida up 1-0 in the first.
September 30, 2007 at 10:20 am
Now 4-0.
September 30, 2007 at 10:24 am
#15: Or if Gwynn hadn’t managed to hit that last one.
September 30, 2007 at 10:27 am
18: Exactly, if he strikes out on that pitch no one would be talking about 5 straight change ups. Hoff made a good pitch, T. Jr. did some good hitting.
September 30, 2007 at 10:29 am
5-0 Marlins
September 30, 2007 at 10:29 am
Glavine nails Willis with the bases loaded. Marlins up 5-0; Glavine is done after retiring only one batter. Top of the order coming up.
September 30, 2007 at 10:36 am
Uggla doubles home two more. Fish lead 7-0.
September 30, 2007 at 10:40 am
Phillies and Nationals:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270930122
XM 184.
September 30, 2007 at 10:45 am
I was gonna say I feel good about Willis pitching but he’s got an ERA over 5.
September 30, 2007 at 10:48 am
If the mets lose the phillies really dont factor into anything concerning the Pads right?
September 30, 2007 at 10:51 am
#18: point taken; my view was while Nix swung and missed on all the change ups, Gwynn was making contact. That was not true: he swung and missed twice, but did take two (one of which was a strike; hate Froemming). Maybe his ability to take some of those pitches suggests he was less susceptible to the change than Nix. I still don’t like throwing 5 pitches of the same speed. But, I guess Bard and Hoffman have a little bit more experience in this area than I do, so I will shush, but it still irks me.
September 30, 2007 at 10:53 am
25: yes, than just the Rockies to deal with. Granted, if you want any pitcher on the mound with a 7-0 deficit in the 1rst, if you are a Mets fan, Dontrelle is the man. I dislike Philly, so am torn. Hopefully, Phillies will lose as well and NY wins playoff.
September 30, 2007 at 10:54 am
27: We played Philly well though, so I would rather face them in the playoffs
September 30, 2007 at 11:01 am
Understatement alert: The Mets losing would be HUGE for the Padres. Not only would it mean that if Colorado lost, then the Padres would win the wildcard, but also then the Padres will only have to play, at most, one playoff game. Which, of couse, means that we could rest our playoff chances on Peavy pitching on normal rest.
September 30, 2007 at 11:02 am
I guess we played the Mets better though…
September 30, 2007 at 11:11 am
Well, that’s a nice start.
September 30, 2007 at 11:11 am
Boooya!
September 30, 2007 at 11:12 am
OG is looking extra orange-y!
Wow, he absolutely crushed that.
I now resent Tony Gwynn a bit. I know, I need to let it go.
September 30, 2007 at 11:15 am
damn Kouz was inches from making it 2-0
September 30, 2007 at 11:15 am
Ball’s flying out today… that could be a bit worrisome…
September 30, 2007 at 11:19 am
On pace for 27 hits today… that’s a good sign…
September 30, 2007 at 11:23 am
Blummer!
September 30, 2007 at 11:23 am
Blummer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice~!!!!!!!
September 30, 2007 at 11:24 am
We are making Suppan work, good AB’s by the whole team
September 30, 2007 at 11:25 am
Blum’s the clutchiest clutch who ever did clutch.
September 30, 2007 at 11:26 am
Nice first inning, would had been a nice spot for tomko to get his first hit, but you cant ask for much more. Lets hope he pitches well.
September 30, 2007 at 11:27 am
Damn if Bard wasn’t so slow! Okay, now we need to go ahead and bring in the bullpen. Great stuff from Tomko, let’s go ahead and shut’er down.
September 30, 2007 at 11:28 am
Needless speculation: Say we did start Peavy. In that situation would you pinch hit for him and bring Tomko in to start the bottom of the 1st?
September 30, 2007 at 11:29 am
Assuming that both were fully warmed up, I’d go with Peavy. Now there is a lot better chance of getting the win with Peavy. When it’s zero-zero, you have to worry about Peavy pitching a great game only to lose 1-0 or 2-0.
September 30, 2007 at 11:29 am
I’d want more than 3 runs for that. At least 5 or 6.
September 30, 2007 at 11:29 am
Anyone else’s mlb.tv connection suck right now or is it just me?
September 30, 2007 at 11:31 am
FYI: Ryan Howard needs 2 Ks for 200.
September 30, 2007 at 11:33 am
whew that was close
September 30, 2007 at 11:33 am
I always thought that hitting the yellow line meant it was a homerun… Tony is pulling the rug from under my feet…
September 30, 2007 at 11:33 am
Phils up 3-0 in the third.
September 30, 2007 at 11:35 am
BTW: This brings up a good issue. I really think that homerun calls should be reviewable on video. I know that I’m in a minority on that, but while I’m usually a traditionalist with respect to baseball matters, I think this one is pretty silly.
September 30, 2007 at 11:36 am
Life is tough for brewer fan. All that way to stumble at the end. Tough sledding.
September 30, 2007 at 11:36 am
Okay, now bring in the bullpen next inning. Tomko’s done all that we can ask for. It’s time to shut ‘er down.
September 30, 2007 at 11:37 am
September 30, 2007 at 11:38 am
Dontrelle done in NY after 2.2 IP. Bases loaded, two out in the third, LoDuca batting for El Duque.
September 30, 2007 at 11:40 am
LoDuca grounds out; Mets down 7-1 after three.
September 30, 2007 at 11:51 am
I want to hear Willy Randolph give a positive spin in the press conference after this loss.
September 30, 2007 at 11:53 am
Okay, great stuff from Tomko (seriously: 4k’s through 7 batters!). Let’s let the bully do the rest… Shut ‘er down.
September 30, 2007 at 11:55 am
58: You really want the bullpen to start now?
September 30, 2007 at 11:56 am
OT: Okay, so LT can only gain something like 50yds against Greenbay, but Adrian Peterson has gained 108 on 10 carries in the 1st half. Ugh, we’re really going to need our O-line to step up.
September 30, 2007 at 11:58 am
59: I’m only kidding.
September 30, 2007 at 11:58 am
Seriously guys, is anyone else’s mlb.tv connection on and off right now? this is so frustrating after not being to watch the game at all yesterday and only being able to watch the game in three second intervals today.
September 30, 2007 at 11:59 am
62: Yup.
September 30, 2007 at 11:59 am
Nice swing by Tomko.
62: Mine seems to be working fine.
September 30, 2007 at 12:00 pm
60: LT just has to make the adjustments. The league adjusted to him, now he’s got to adjust back. Defenses are just collapsing on him and since Rivers cant get the passing game going the running lanes arent there.
September 30, 2007 at 12:00 pm
#64: Yep, he almost got that over Gross’ head.
September 30, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Nice glove, Kouz.
September 30, 2007 at 12:02 pm
65: Rivers was great last week. I don’t think that’s the difference. We’re not holding our blocks and we’re also being pretty predictable.
September 30, 2007 at 12:03 pm
62: Mine has been fine. Do you have the Mosiac? Thats what I am using, its worked great.
September 30, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Crap, Tomko. Then again, no chance for SB at least. Right?
Maybe, Suppan will bake a little in the sun and get tired.
Come on, Tomko, DP right here.
September 30, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Nice play, Kouz. Good job, Tomko. This guy wants to win.
Let’s go Padres. Score some more runs. 10 would be good.
September 30, 2007 at 12:12 pm
68: Last week yes, and last week was also LT’s best game of the year. When the passing game is a legit threat to defenses the running lanes will open up. You are right the o-line isnt helping though.
September 30, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Okay, great stuff by Tomko. He’s all heart. Let’s get that guy out of there on top.. Bring in the bully… Shut ‘er down….
September 30, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Hairston really got out of the box on that one. I didn’t realize he was that fast.
September 30, 2007 at 12:19 pm
74: I agree, he’s never hustled out a grounder like that before, he made the play damn close at first.
September 30, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Great job by Adrian to stay on the bag.
September 30, 2007 at 12:23 pm
El Hombre with the nice pick. Wow.
September 30, 2007 at 12:25 pm
If we get into the playoffs, I hope our complete inability to control the running game doesn’t come back to bite us.
September 30, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Damn it, Tomko.
Crap!
September 30, 2007 at 12:26 pm
This is why Chaka no like Tomko…
September 30, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Wow, I guess we had to figure 3 runs wouldnt be enough.
78: Our pitchers just dont like to hold guys on. Tomko has been the best one at it.
September 30, 2007 at 12:27 pm
78: Yup, that’s the worry too. Two runs yesterday wouldn’t have scored without the stolen bases.
September 30, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Yuck. Rox threatening in the first:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270930127
September 30, 2007 at 12:28 pm
83: not anymore
September 30, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Calling bullpen, right now.
Let’s score some runs, Padres. Drat! One run lead is no good.
September 30, 2007 at 12:33 pm
How on earth did the Diamondbacks win 90 games? Their lineup is terrible, and their starting pitching other than Brandon Webb is extremely suspect. It’s depressing rooting for them.
September 30, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Man, this is bad for my nerve.
So, I’m also watching the future episode of Heroes, String Theory, where the Mets…I mean NY City lays in ruins. No mention of the Padres but I’m hoping Hiro Nakamura comes thru for the boys.
September 30, 2007 at 12:33 pm
#83: Game is on XM 189 for those interested.
September 30, 2007 at 12:34 pm
86: Yeah, still, let’s root for them anyway…today.
September 30, 2007 at 12:35 pm
86: Great bullpen, timely hitting. Basically the same way we win games.
September 30, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Attaboy, Khalil!
September 30, 2007 at 12:35 pm
YEAH! Khalil went deep. There you go, Padres. More runs. More runs.
September 30, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Greene goes yard.
September 30, 2007 at 12:37 pm
“Look how excited he is” hahahaha
September 30, 2007 at 12:37 pm
90: Except our hitting is much better than theirs, and we have two other good starting pitchers behind Peavy.
September 30, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Hooray Khalil!
September 30, 2007 at 12:40 pm
Nate Silver’s take on the Khalil homer from his chat at BPro:
“Khalil Greene hits a home run into the Brewers’ bullpen in left-center, once again extending the major league record for home runs hit by a player named Khalil. You want to talk about untouchable records — that one is going to be right up there when it’s all said and done.”
September 30, 2007 at 12:46 pm
Crap. Another Tomko special delivery. Let’s change the pitcher.
Come on, Brett. DP would be nice right now. Watch out for the stolen base but get the guys out.
September 30, 2007 at 12:47 pm
Damnit. Was that a bad call?
September 30, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Even without Mike Winters, this umpiring crew is having a tough time. Looked to me like they nailed Weeks at second…
September 30, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Yeah, he was out. It was extremely lucky to have the ball bounce back to Bard though, so I guess it evens it out.
September 30, 2007 at 12:49 pm
In comes The Claw.
September 30, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Yes, but I’m sick of the “Josh gets a bad rap” argument. Bard has absolutely NO ARM. He takes about 20 minutes to get rid of the ball, and can’t throw anyone out at third! I refuse to believe that the problem is every single pitcher on the padres (including fireballers like Bell and Tomko) are slow to the plate.
September 30, 2007 at 12:52 pm
#103: There isn’t a catcher alive that would throw out even 15-20% of base stealers with this staff.
September 30, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Stupid Silent L.
September 30, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Milwaukee’s defense is contagious.
September 30, 2007 at