So, now what? Before we get to that, I’d like to thank everyone for visiting, participating, and otherwise being a part of Ducksnorts again throughout the 2007 season. We laughed, we cried, we debated the great issues of our time.
Or something like that.
There are far too many folks to thank individually, so I’ll keep the list short. Thanks to Peter Friberg, who did a great job covering prospects for us this year. Thanks also to my unbelievably accommodating wife for believing in this crazy dream of mine. Words can’t begin to express my gratitude.
The rest of you know who you are. If I listed all your names and contributions, we’d never be done, so you get one giant pat on the back.
* * *
This is going to be a busy winter — for the Padres and for me. Sure, the season is over but we’ve got plenty more to cover over the next several months. We’ll want to figure out how the Padres can shore up some holes (second base, left and center field, back end of the rotation), keep track of guys in winter ball, and other stuff I’m forgetting. I may not have original material up every day, but we’ll always have something to discuss.
Also, I’ve got a book to write. I’m working on the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual (I’ll be sharing a rough outline with you soon) and that has me pumped.
Speaking of which, I’ve been sneaking off to the downtown library and poring over microfilm versions of the San Diego Union from 1969. Hey, where else are you going to learn that Ollie Brown hit seven homers in spring training? Or that Al Ferrara played piano at Carnegie Hall when he was 10 years old?
I’m still thinking about player dashboards. I’m still thinking about a lot of things…
* * *
I’ll also be posting daily at Knuckle Curve throughout the postseason and beyond. Who knows what else. Right now I’ve got a radio segment up at Outsider Radio and an article at Hardball Times (yeah, I wrote the Rockies playoff preview). You may or may not want to listen/read. Personally I find that ignoring stuff doesn’t make it go away, but that’s me.
Anywho. Second straight day I have no flow. I am off my game, need some R&R.
Finally, because folks ask, you may help support the Ducksnorts cause (via PayPal) if you are so inclined by clicking the button below. Always an invitation, never an obligation. Thanks again for everything. Rock on…
179 Comments
Here is a name that might be interesting… Dontrelle Willis. It would probably take a high prospect and then some but I am always interested in him. He did have an off year but I do love a lefty in the rotation and I would love to see what Balsley might do with him. He would likely be cheaper to get than Santana. I assume it would start with Headley and then they could put Cabrerra in left where he belongs. It’s probably a pipe dream but Peavy, Willis, Young, Maddux rotation would easily be one of the best in the league on paper.
1 – what’s the D-train’s nemesis, the flyball/HR or the hard hit liner? The former Petco can help with, the latter not so much.
1: Willis would certainly be an interesting idea. Not sure if I like it, but it’s interesting. He could also probably fetch better prospects than what we’ve got.
GY, thanks again for everything you do. I have no idea what this season would have been like for me without Ducksnorts. It’s nice to have a venue where people can rationally debate the team we all love.
So, is anybody going to still watch the playoffs? Fall TV just kicked in for me, and I just started my MBA program, so I doubt I’ll watch much of the Fall Classic. However, if I’m pulling for an ideal WS, it’s an Angels/Rox affair.
I posted this in yesterdays Blog this morn but ill re-post in this one
Tim McCellen was on the Dan Patric show this morning (AM 570). He said he has seen the replay several times and he thinks that he got the call right because he has not seen a replay showing that he got it wrong.
He also said that he delayed his call because he wanted to see if Barrett held onto the ball or not, and when he saw the ball rolling away he called Atkins safe.
DP asked him if Barrett would have hung onto the ball then Atkins would have still been safe anyways because he touched the plate before Barrett applied the tag.
I dont know when 1090 is going to start playing the DP show in the afternoon but you amy want to toon in to see i they are going to play it, I think the interview starts about an hour and 20 min into the show.
Re: 3 Ill watch the AL cause I would like to see the indians do well and the yankees get crushed.
I’ll watch a little bit but I don’t really care anymore. I used to live in Cleveland so I always have a bit of an interest in the Indians and I have always liked the Angels but really I’m over it. Monday really knocked the wind out of me. If we would have gotten killed I would be cool with it but for it to end like that… BAH HUMBUG! First the Chargers and the Patriots and now the Pads and the Rocks. This year has really hurt to be a San Diego sports fan.
Re: 6 where are the Gulls and Soccers when you need them?
2.
Yeah I guess I really just hope maybe we can get a guy with some succes to fill out the rotation. I’m a little tired of the castoff/4A type of starters we seem to always try and run out there. At the end of the season we relied so much on Peavy and it would be nice to have another guy to lean on if CY goes down and Mad dog fizzles. I’m afraid CY’s back may become more of a yearly issue just do to his size and stuff.
I think Az and Bos in the WS. Az has the best pitching of the NL teams. Col and Phils are just happy to be in, an attutude that doesn’t get you far. Az are on a mission. Cubs, well they are cursed, right! Don’t really care though, beside, hate the Fox coverage, they get the sound all wrong and TM is hard to take.
MBA?, thinking of that myself, what program are you in, Phantom?
OK, I’ll bring it up. Who read Canepa’s column (Pads overachieved) this morning?
He says the Padres batted .251 and were awful with RISP, citing Monday’s 3-13 performance. Whether it’s a junk stat or not, the Pads hit .271/.356/.436 with RISP, weren’t as good with 2 outs but still better than the bases empty line of .240/.305/.402. I have a feeling there’s a columnist for each eliminated team writing this morning that their team needs to improve its clutch hitting.
He also cited the total strikeouts by Cameron, Gonzalez and Greene as “not exactly what CEO Sandy “Moneyball” Alderson preaches.
If I remember correctly in Moneyball they said a strike out was just another out.
No one who pays attention would ever say KG was a moneyball player, he doesn’t fit the common theme of OBP and more generally someone who posts those counting catagories is never going to be undervalued by the market if they are a FA.
*NOT SAYING ANYTHING IS WRONG WITH KG, PLEASE DON’T ACT LIKE I AM!!!!!!!!!!*
It is going to be an interesting off season, anyone think they try to move Giles since little bro isn’t going to be coming back?
RE: 1 et al. I don’t know how I feel about Willis either. I haven’t looked at his peripherals in a while, but I recall them being troubling. And, because he is very marketable, I don’t think you’re going to get good bang for your buck, so to speak. Sure, he’ll be less expensive than Santana. That’s mostly because he isn’t nearly as good as Santana.
At this point, I think we need to focus more on our position players. We didn’t get out pitched too often this year. We did, however, get outhit quite often, and shoot ourselves in the foot when the ball went anywhere other than to SS, CF, 1B, and, every five days, P.
So…does anyone think we should go after Andruw Jones? Who else might be on the market? Do we re-sign Bradley if the price is right?
Here is a good list of the 2008 free agents:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html
9: I’m in an MBA prgram at CSUSB. It’s nothing glamorous, but it fits around my work schedule, so I don’t complain.
I’ve already been put in contact with people at the High Desert Mavericks to see if I’d be interesting in an internship there next year (which I definitely am), but between work and school, there’s no way I can do it until I finish the program.
The primary reason I’m pursuing an MBA is to find a way into professional baseball. There are a handfdul of minor league affiliates within an hour of me, so I’m hoping to break into one of those in the next few years.
10: Sometimes it’s like Canepa rolls himself towards his desk, his gut crushes the keyboard, and the resulting characters are close enough to English that his editor can work with it.
The “moneyball” reference is perfect. So Nick doesn’t understand the popular definition of moneyball, nor does he understand what the A’s operating concept really was and is.
11: Don’t try to hide your KG hatred from me!!! I can smell it all the way in San Bernardino county!!! :-p
I really wish I had Canepa’s job. I have experience writing published articles. I bet I could even write things that were more intelligible and factually accurate than him.
Of course, so could a sixth grader.
Thanks Geoff for all of your hard work on this site. Looking forward to an interesting off season. I like the idea of going after Mark Prior.
re 12: Actually they got out pitched a ton from the 4/5 spots in the rotation a lot of it is hidden by Petco though.
Re: 15 no thats Caronna not hatred
12: I gotta disagree. We got outpitched a lot when it was anybody but Peavy, Maddux, or first half, pre-injury Chris Young on the mound. 2/5 of our starts were made by below-league-average pitchers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/2007.shtml
Those ERA+ numbers for the back end of the staff are ugly. Germano’s production would be tolerable in the 5 spot, but his might have fallen even further if they hadn’t pulled him.
OT: Just found this via GLB…
http://www.lasnark.com/101-best-baseball-blogs
Proud to represent at #44.
17 & 19: Completely agree that pitching should be one of our top priorities this season. Tomko is a credible emergency fifth starter, but I would really like to round out the rotation with more dominant arms.
I hate to say it but I think we will be seeing jason jennings in Petco next year. We all know when KT locks in on a guy KT will get that guy.
22: These are Jennings’ career stats. I haven’t digested them enough to make an opinion.
ERA: 4.91 (!) – could be the Coors effect
K/9: 6
K/BB: 1.51
BAA: .284
OPS Against: 805 (!)
WHIP: 1.55 (ouc)
HR/9: 1.1
Ok, so this guy sucks. Unless I’m missing something?
22: That might not be the worst idea if Jennings was pitching hurt.
Speaking of Andruw Jones I think Canepa was outdone by this columnist: http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/sportscolumns/entries/2007/10/02/braves_make_big.html
“That said, with the new folks at Liberty Media claiming they are willing to increase the payroll, the Braves’ Designated Geniuses should have discovered ways to acquire much-needed starting pitching while keeping Jones. In fact, Jones was part of the solution regarding that starting pitching. He is the hidden reason the Braves produced Cy Glavine, Cy Smoltz and Cy Maddux, along with all of those consecutive years of team ERAs that ranked first or second in baseball. He caught everything. He threw out everybody. He made the spectacular routine. He did so through an 11th year with the Braves that will produce a 10th Gold Glove, but management will shove Jones out the door by allowing him to become a free agent while yawning.”
Most of the 100-some commenters shred him and back the Braves’ decision.
20: Better be careful GY John Kruk might write a book or go on TV and declare that # retired. lol
I think the Padres played pretty well down the stretch, all things considered. They were missing two of their starting outfielders, were playing a utilityman at 2B and only really had one effective starting pitcher (Jake Peavy). They also had one of the worst bullpens in the NL in the 2nd half of the season. However, they somehow managed to hang around until the very end and lost a playoff game on the road to a team that had won 14 of 15 games and just swept them in Petco a week before. Obviously the end result wasn’t what you wanted but it’s highly doubtful that the Padres were going anywhere in the postseason.
As far as the changes for next season, I’m not sure that Hairston should be given the left-field job. I think he should be given another shot to see if he can play 2B (doubtful) and if not they can use him to platoon with B.Giles in RF and start some in the outfield. Hairston just makes too many outs (much like Greene) to justify playing him everyday in a high offense spot.
20: I’m sorry. I’m sure there are folks who post or lurk at both, but DS wipes the floor with Gaslamp Ball (No. 15 on that list). Maybe I just haven’t been over there enough to discover the magic, although I did enjoy a thread or two during the last couple series. I was amazed at how many comments there were in the open threads. Honestly, this season I rarely thought to check it out.
GY, I’m not writing this to elicit a repsponse, as I imagine you might be buds with the peeps over there.
[duplicate comment removed]
16.
I would definitely take a chance on him!
11.
You bring up a really good point about moving Giles. It would have to be the perfect situation for a team to take him on but I think a team right there on the brink of being a world series contender might be willing to take him. His contract would be 1 year 10mil with a 3mil buyout or something right? I could see either one of the NYY teams being interested in him especially because Bobby Abreu and Shawn Green probably won’t be back. I could see Cleveland being interested maybe even the Angels or Oakland. We probably wouldn’t get much in return for him so it would basically be a money dump situation.
The bigger question is in rebuilding I think. It seems pretty obvious that AZ and CO are no longer basement dwellers in the division and are here to stay. We have some good fairly young talent but the FO needs to decide to rebuild all at once or over a couple of years. Do it all at once and the fans will kills you. We have basically our infield of the future taken care of with Kouz or Headley and Antonelli but we have a whole outfield to deal with. Getting rid of (or trying to) Giles would open up money and a spot but would probably lower our production and we would loose a good player. It’s way too early to tell but as soon as the world series is over things are sure to get pretty interesting.
FWIW, Keith Olbermann listed Bud Black and Barrett on his list of “Best Person of the Day” segment yesterday for their reaction and post-game comments regarding the final play of the game on Monday.
I’d like to see Willis here because I think he would benefit from Petco and mentoring from the pitching staff. IIRC, Peavy and Willis became friends a couple of years ago during a MLB tour of Japan, so maybe bringing Willis in would make resigning Jake to a longer term contract next year a little easier.
Cameron showed a lot to the Padres and the rest of the league on Monday, which I think may have raised his stock in the Padre clubhouse as well as others. I think from a personality standpoint I’d rather have Cameron than Jones and from a potential performance standpoint I’d rather have Jones. Monday proved that we need a better than league average glove in CF.
I’m at a loss as to what to do about Bradley. That being said, I think Bradley has shown that his downside may override his upside such that he should not be regarded as a starter but a bench player capable of starting between injuries and suspensions.
In the meantime, I’m going to prepare for my 18th year of officiating high school wrestling and continue to plug away at my M.Ed. and single-subject credential as I change careers from environmental/land planning consulting. I should start student teaching before pitchers and catchers report in the Spring.
Thank you Geoff and everyone for keeping me informed and entertained and putting up with my occasional “foot in mouth” posts.
Yes, our 4-5 spots were sometimes underwhelming (Germano), and mostly terrible (Wells and Hensley). But perhaps I wasn’t clear enough about my comment. Is spending the money that it would take to sign Dontrelle (or a marquee starter) worth it to shore up a 4-5 starter? Or would that money be better spent on a positional hole and offense?
Granted, this is assuming we’re talking about the front end of Peavy / Maddux / Young remaining intact and healthy, which could be quite an assumption with Chris Young.
Jennings, for example, might not be the worst idea, if, as suggested, he was pitching hurt. In his last full season he was pretty dominant. But what about guys like Tony Armas?
Mostly, I just think we need to take the line-up to the next level if we really expect to compete.
To me part of the apeal of Ducksnorts is that its the same people posting everyday that know 30 times more about baseball than I do, and somehow GY keeps out alot of the riff-raff that post on the Padres message board and other blogs that shall remain nameless.
We all know DS is the best blog bar-none if someone wants to rank it #44 then hey its thier loss.
How do you like that downtown library? Jbox and I visited their “Baseball” section when it was announced that they were going to be making a more concerted effort at getting it more SABRlike, but we didn’t see much that was extra special. Has it improved?
Also, 32. a Padres fan is a Padres fan is a Padres fan. Everybody enjoys the game in their own way and shouldn’t be judged for it even if some are especially critical and/or fairweather.
Unless, by “riff-raff” you’re talking about the fact that GLB seems to attract a lot of opposing team trolls, in which case, you’re right. Geoff does a great job at somehow avoiding that.
Re: 29 I dont think after the loss to CO they can go into full re-build mode next season, I think 09 will be the natural season to clean house and bring up all your young talent and see what sticks.
After 08 Maddux, Giles, and Hoffy are all out the door, Jake will be going into the last year of his deal, and Khalil will in his last arbitration year.
The Pads will have also givin hairston a chance in LF to see if he pans out and will give Kouz another shot at 3B for a year.
Re: DS vs. GLB
They’re very different communities. DS is the place for more serious and stat-heavy discussion.
GLB is more off-the-wall, more reactionary, and more wacky.
I came to value each of them equally over the course of the season. If I wanted strong analysis or if I wanted to float an idea bout a potential player, I’d come here. If I wanted to blow off steam or compare Khalil to robots, I’d go to GLB.
At either rate, I can’t imagine watching a Padres game without my computer anymore. Even when I’m at the games, I wish I had my laptop with me.
Re: 33 I was not taling about GLB when I said other blogs, or really any other Padres Blogs for that matter, I was looking more at snakepitt, thinkblue ect…
35: I should clarify that GLB isn’t somehow less imporant or less serious than Ducksnorts. I’ve had some great in-depth conversations about players over there as well.
Typically, DS is a more stat-driven site.
27. I don’t mind at all that anybody thinks DS is a better blog than GLB. I do think that it’s possible to enjoy both. Ducksnorts is really good at strong baseball analysis, with great stories about baseball sprinkled in. I like to think that GLB focuses on crazy baseball stories, with relatively decent analysis sprinkled in.
Also, I appreciate that the LA Snark list gets both of our blogs, but honestly, thisblogsox.com is good, but hardly the best baseball blog on the internet. If I were Geoff, I wouldn’t take offense that these LA Snark readers only ranked DS 45, though I think we should all gloat that we ranked higher than Dodger Thoughts. HA!
I’m just looking forward to some of the newer Padres blogs to really start to get their legs also. No reason why the Padres should be so underrepresented in the blogosphere.
I love Gaslampball. They are wacky.
31: In a lot of cases, yes, it would be worth it. Not necessarily Willis, but if you upgraded from 160 innings of Germano to 160 innings of AJ Burnett, that’s probably going to get you more W’s than “upgrading” from Hairston/Bradley to Gonzalez, or NOG/Blum to Iguchi. And if you really had a shot at a marquee pitcher, like Santana, the gap is even bigger.
#27: I appreciate the sentiment, but I don’t see DS and GLB as competitors in the broader scheme. We are all part of the community that is Padres fandom. I also happen to be a GLB fan. They’re good folks doing good work.
#33: I’m enjoying it very much, thanks. Just discovered the baseball section, which is a blast. I spend most of my time looking at old newspapers or referencing places I passed through on my trip to Cooperstown (another project), but I’ve been impressed with their baseball books as well. For one thing, they have Craig Wright’s Diamond Appraised, which I’ve been wanting to read since, like, forever. Not that I’ll have an opportunity in the immediate future, but it’s nice to know it’ll be there when I need it.
#37: Yeah, we’re taking different approaches to the same thing. It’s all good, to use a terrible phrase.
#38: Roger that. The more, the merrier.
Keep that hot stove burning…
Since I provoked some comments and Dex came by and refrained from calling me a Jack Clark …
I don’t want to be one of those lame butts who backs down from comments made, but “wipe the floor with” was overcooked. I just dig that phrase, I guess.
At times, I’ve been surprised that DS isn’t bigger, but it’s too much to expect the cumulative comments to compete with, say, Dodger Thoughts. (OTOH, it’s nice not to stop by at 2 p.m. and have 400 comments to consider digesting.) I suppose I’m indebited to GY’s fine site for permanently rescuing me from the horror that is http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?webtag=ml-padres
So Bavasi is sticking in Seattle? I love ya, Brian, but let’s go get Adam Jones.
Considering my line of work, I suck at this.
Edited:
(OTOH, it’s nice to stop by at 2 p.m. and not have 400 comments to consider digesting.)
We need to get in front of this “San Diego Sportsfan Curse” business. Certainly Monday’s game on top of Saturday’s game gives us serious momentum in that direction.
And Clay Davenport at BP has pointed out that we’ve actually set a record. While our collapse (from a 90.6% postseason chance)doesn’t match that of the Mets (99.8% chance), we collapsed FASTER than anyone ever has. From Davenport:
“The gist of what I was working on was that there were 32 teams, going back to 1873 and the National Association, where a team had reached a 90 percent probability of reaching the postseason, and then failed to do so. What I was looking at…was, specifically, how fast they were able to blow it, and go from 90 to nothing…
…So, the record stood at six [days], right up until this year’s Mets did the job in five days. However, they held that record for all of about 33 hours, because when Tim McClelland called Matt Holliday safe last night, he also zeroed out a Padre team that had been at 90 percent just three days earlier.”
So we are record-setters in our cursedness.
So…next step… identify the source of the curse. Boston had its Bambino, the Cubs have their goat, Philly has the buildings taller than Ben Franklin’s statue thing (lame, but whatever).
So can we open up the floor for “source of the curse” nominations? Some parameters… has to be related to events happening after 1963 (SD AFL championship), ’cause surely we weren’t cursed then, but certainly before October, 1998, when Langston’s non-called strikeout was irrefuteable evidence that a curse was in place.
So… any thoughts? Me, I’m thinking it might have something to do with Roger Hedgecock…
The Mission Valley Library (by Costco) also has some SABR or SABR-type publications. They have some good Negro League/Caribbean League type books. Especially interesting is a book on the California Winter League – a racially mixed league in CA during the 20s and 30s.
The Diamond Appraised is an excellent book. It is funny to read b/c some of today’s stats v. scouting/ballplayers know better debates are echoed in that almost 20 year old book.
I am generally a statistics/SABRmetrics type of person (first Abstract was 1984 for me), but when I look at the current, successful Padres of the past 4 years, I see one big difference with the 95-98 Padres. I cannot believe I am going to say this, but attitude. The Cammy/Finley/(for one year) Brown Padres appeared to want to win every game. I don’t know how many of you were fans in 98. I went to about 25 games that year and that team just seemed to say, “We are going to win this game.” The current team is more of a “We want to win this game.” They seem to lack passion.
Do I want them to sign a Rex Hudler-type? NOOOOOO! I want to see the team be more passionate, I guess.
OK, that’s long enough. Keep up the great work GY.
#45: Thanks, Kelly, for the tip. Clairemont has very little, but MV isn’t far away; I’ll have to swing by there.
As for scout/stat debates, those always confuse me. If people knew their history a little better, they’d realize that some of this stuff goes back at least to Branch Rickey, who is generally held in high regard by most fans I know. Why anyone takes issue with the desire to gain every possible advantage is beyond me, but oh well.
When Jason Bay’s name was brought up, did someone mention a deal, say, Headley + someone else. This idea was floated on mlbtraderumors.com.
re: No offense, but let’s not.
The curses of the Red Sox and Cubs is why I won’t pull for them. They’re stupid and irrational. To invent one would seem like gloming on.
I don’t pull for any team that has fans who believe in curses.
Re: 47 there were a few floating around I think it was Headly + Greene + Prospect for Bay and Wilson. but lets not go down that path again it lead to 100+ comments of Khalil debate.
To Coronado Mike:
Didn’t mean to rip you too bad yesterday.
But my general thesis is what a lot of other posters were saying: that there is very little truth to mental makeup being a part of being a good/great closer.
For that to be the case, Hoffman must have had terrible mental makeup the other night. But great mental makeup otherwise. What he had was terrible location.
44- everyone knows it’s because we retired Garvey’s number.
The team already traded Bay for Giles, which we would probably like to have back. Why trade another great prospect for a guy who *could* be on the downside?
Re: 50 ask the redsox how well closer by committee works
53: I don’t think I said a thing about that. Where did you get that?
Oh, no, the Coach is recommending his listeners to read Canepa’s column.
Re: 54 it goes off the theory that being a closer has more to do with “stuff” then mental makeup
Right, and if you look at that season with the Red Sox, those relievers pitched poorly. That’s a pitching issue, not a mental makeup issue.
If the committee had pitched well, then everyone would have said Theo Epstien and Bill James were geniuses.
52 – exactly. Plus, SA is widely quoted in his admiration for the Rockies and D’backs ability to plug holes in the majors from their farm systems. You don’t get that way trading good prospects for maybe have/maybe haven’t peaked major leaguers. The only people we should trade prospects for, IMO, are ML-ready or close to it prospects (ala Kouzmanoff) that fill holes in our system (CF anyone?) and deal from strength (current 3B situation this offseason).
48: I largely agree with you. It is “stupid and irrational.” But if you can’t pull for a team whose fans believe in a curse, then you can’t root for the Padres any more. ‘Cause it’s already out there in many Padres fans’ minds; it already has its own Wikipedia entry!
I just see this as an opportunity to have a little fun in shaping and molding the legend into something truly ludicrous and fun.
Also, maybe I’m just a stats-sensitive guy, but why is this site or others called “stats-driven,” when they should really be called “fact-driven.”
Re: 57 but the problem is a pitchers “stuff” can change in different situations because of his mental makeup. Some pitchers cant handel the pressure when your only up by a run and you just gave up a double with no outs other guys cant.
59: It could be fun. I’ll admit that.
But I would rather start a movement to take that wiki page down instead of feeding the monster.
By they way, it would of course be when Jack Clark and Garry Templeton were clubhouse cancers, and Templeton hung the doll of Tony Gwynn in the clubhouse. You can’t to that to the best player in franchise history.
52: Well, Keith Law said …
58: Isn’t Headley a third basemen? I’m not endorsing a Headley package for Jason Bay. Just one poster’s idea on that Web site.
I think this offseason could be very boring, but it could become really interesting if the FO decides to move one of those Missions. If they don’t want to give Cameron three years, then they’ll have to get creative about CF.
Re: 62 why did he hang a doll of TG?
61: Well, I just think that theory is false.
And to make a long story short, both sides of the argument thing the other side is total bunk. One is based on baseball ability, fact-driven, those who don’t believe in clutch ability vs. those who believe highly in intangibles, Jimmy Rollins as MVP, etc.
64: Because he hated Gwynn and thought he was selfish, but I’ll look up more info in one of the Bill James’ books.
65, so Bill James vs like Bob Costas?
65: Is Rollins and his .340 OBP really that poor a choice for MVP? I haven’t checked VORP and WARP lately. Wait, you probably want Soriano to win it. He did hit 14 homers in September, right?
61: I don’t think there’s any sign of that. We could find a period comparable to the Red Sox C by C in most closer’s careers. The hyperoverreaction to that approach began on Opening Night, when they blew a save against Tampa. When Hoffman blows a save on Opening Day, nobody screams about the failings of the Classic Closer.
Something like that. Although I don’t find Costas to be full of old baseball theories and cliches. I don’t want to mention a substitute for Costas, because it will probably be someone hateable.
Kentera just said the Padres have a 7.5 mil club option for ‘08 on Hoffman or a 2.5 mil buyout. C’mon, John.
45. Keaches think alike. The Padres need more players with “ganas.” As Jaime Escalante said in Stand and Deliver: “You got to have ganas – desire.” Peavy, Bell, Hoffman, Maddux – these are players with ganas. The everyday line-up was full of flatliners.
To start with, I think the Padres should sign somebody whose sole purpose would be to wait in the dugout after Khalil hits a home run, pull off his helmet, and mess up his hair and give him a noogie.
Re: 71 Hoffy option was automatically exercised when he hit 45 GF in 06
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/san-diego-padres.html
Re: 72 you think they should sign sweeny?
72 – I think Bud enabled that more casual attitude with his “sunday lineups” and so on. It always seemed if we took the first 2 games of a series he would use game 3 to get key guys some rest. I’m not opposed to resting guys, but when you pull that particular lever often enough it says “not all of these games matter guys”.
That said, this team was very “together” all year, and sometimes the more fiery, rah-rah guys can mess that up more than help it.
Overall, I don’t think we lost the division on attitude, we lost it on late season unavailability of key guys (MB, Cammy, the pre-oblique CY, the pre-back tweak Maddux, the pre-sucking NOG).
51 … BING!
Rox up 3-2 on Phils in the 6th. This game totally snuck up on me, I had forgotten it was starting this early. Apparently Matt Holliday has not touched home plate 3 times already.
64: James has more than a page on this subject in his 1991 book.
I’ll try to summarize:
In May 1990, Mike Pagliarulo said of an unknown teammate: “If we win and he goes 0-for-4, forget it. He’s ticked. If he gets his hits and we lose, that’s fine with him. He doesn’t give a damn about this team, and that’s weak.”
Gwynn thought the remarks were aimed at him and fired back in the newspaper about how the Padres are taking him for granted and he is the sixth-highest paid player on the team.
May 24 — players-only meeting. Clark and Templeton “blasted [Gwynn] for caring more about his batting average than winning.”
Sept. 8 — Gwynn found a toy figurine of himself hanging by a chain in the Padres’ dugout.
There’s a long quote from Gwynn about how he was pissed and “people want to see him fail” and he had a photographer take a picture of it and he hung it above his locker so no one would forget it.
Sept. 15 — Gwynn broke his right index finger. Out for season.
Sept. 19 — He had surgery and opted not to stay with the team for the rest of the season. (Who could blame him, I say?)
This started another snit about Gwynn not being a team guy. …
I’ll continue in antoher post.
Re: 78 thanks, I had no idea TG did not get along with all of the 84 guys
73: Yeah, somebody should tell Kentera that. He still hasn’t clarified his comment.
man 1090 needs to get better hosts
68: Soriano wasn’t among the top 10 players in the league. Voting for him based on September would be just as egregious as voting for Rollins.
Rollins is proably among the top 10 players in the league, but not much more.
Wright, Pujols, Utley, Cabrera, Holliday and H. Ramirez were all better than Rollins. They had better seasons.
A .340 on-base for a leadoff man is not good. .350 should be about the minimum. It’s silly that people are making a big deal out of Rollins’ at-bats record. That’s not a positive. That means he rarely walks.
How does Templeton wrap his mind around Gwynn’s “selfishness?” He’s the man who gave up switch-hitting late one season so he could be the first player to get 100 hits from each side.
81: Kentera just said Maddux has a $6M player option for ‘08. Uh, didn’t he hit an incentive weeks ago increasing that figure to $10M? Not his day for details.
He’s raving about Anthony Gwynn Jr. now. A listener sent in a suggested lineup for 08 that has Gwynn leading off and playing center.
79: Well, those weren’t really 84 guys. Clark and Pags weren’t.
The 84 team had enough “good leaders” — Garvey, Gossage, Nettles — to minimize Templeton’s poor leadership.
83: So true.
Hamels out of the game w/ 2 down in the 7th, man on 2nd. Flash Gordon and his gas can in from the ‘pen.
Kevin, I was needling you about Soriano. Weren’t you the one leading the “Soriano Ain’t Worth It” campaign?
88: My bad on that part of it.
Walt Jocketty got his walking papers in STL.
The rest of the entry is basically James’ analysis of the situation.
He takes Templeton and Gwynn to task for the way they handled it.
“Garry Templeton has become recognized as a clubhouse leader in San Diego, but in my own opinion Templeton is a dumb ballplayer who has wated most o fhis talent because he head no idea what to do with it. One can’t help but suspect that Garry Templeton’s ‘leadership’ has contributed to San Diego’s disappointing play the last few years.
“The things that Templeton said about Gwynn–that he was greedy, more interested in his batting average than in winning–are the sorts of that small-minded people will often say about those more successful than themselves.”
On Gwynn:
“It was Tony Gwynn who signed the contract which paid him $1 million in 1990.” …
“He could have said to himself ‘I’m Tony Gwynn. I’m bigger than that.” …
“What Pagliarulo, Clark and Tempelton were telling Gwynn, in effect, was that his bitching and moaning about his salary was hurting the team, and it was time to shut up about it.”
Clint Hurdle never ceases to amaze — He leaves Jeff Francis in to hit in the top half of the seventh with a runner on second in a one run game, then sends him out to warm up in the bottom of the seventh, then removes him before he gets to face the first batter in the bottom of the seventh. Am I missing something?
I would imagine that LaRussa is gone as well
92: Joe Sheehan commented on that the other day. He doesn’t get it either.
man I want to root for the rockies in this game but the wounds are still to fresh
#52: I think I’m the only Padres fan on the planet who doesn’t have a problem with Bay for Giles. Not only did it make perfect sense at the time, but Giles (106) has more win shares since the trade than does Bay (93). That said, I agree with your larger point that now is not the time to move prospects for guys in decline.
#53: They wouldn’t know because they implemented it poorly.
#60: Perhaps people who ignore facts find that word confusing?
#68: Yeah, Rollins is a poor choice for MVP. I’ve got him at #6, and even that’s uncomfortably high. I give him credit for being a leader on a playoff team, even though he’s not even the best candidate on that team.
61.
If you are going to argue that then what does that say about Trevor every time he blows a save in a big game?
96.
I’ve always been cool with that trade. The Padres could not have gone into PETCO with Jason Bay, Greene, and Burroughs all starting. Giles was a star at the time and they needed to bring in a big name going into the stadium. If I remember correctly Bay was never a top teir prospect either. He blossomed so what we were better off with OG.
Holliday just took Gordon deep. No word on whether he just touched 3rd and headed to the dugout.
Damn you Clayton. As soon as he hit that I rushed to come here and say that Holliday homered, so he has finally touched the plate.
100 – ha! I’ve been saving that one up since ~11pm CST Monday night.
Re: 97 well you can go with trevor cant handel the pressure of being on a big stage ie new york for the WS, or all of the all-star games.
Or you couold chalk them up to that everyone has bad nights.
How do you explain guys like Dotel, Eyre and linebrink who are great setup guys but cant close games
Geoff, here’s the thing about Rollins that I didn’t realize before, and it’s stupid that I didn’t.
Rollins has been getting MVP love all year, and he helped it along with his preseason comments.
But Rollins is a Willie Stargell (1979), Kirk Gibson (1988) and Terry Pendleton (1991) type MVP. Stargell was the leader of the “We are Family” Pirates. Gibson induced his discussion with a preseason incident where he told the Dodgers to stop joking around and take the game seriously. Pendleton was a new additon to a team that went from worst to first.
The MVP should be split into two awards, or rather add an award. The MVP should always go to the best player, even if they are on a last-place team.
Rollins, Gibson, etc. should receive Teammate of the Year. I would applaud Rollins getting that award.
Re: 102 I should say good setup guys
102: How are All-Star games important? I’ve never heard this until the Trevor debate.
I came here just to see how many would post that.
It’s funny how the Coach and a couple of callers assume that Gwynn Jr. plays great defense.
not important but on a big stage, its the only baseball game on that night and fans from all 30 teams are watching.
103 – but that’s the problem – Most Valuable isn’t officially defined as having the best stats. You can interpret it that way, but you can also interpret as being the best teammate, etc. A Most Outstanding Player award would in my mind go to the best player no matter where the team finishes. Most Valuable
#102: Dotel had 36 saves in ‘04; Linebrink has never been given the opportunity (and now it’s probably too late).
#103: You raise an excellent point. Believe me, I struggle mightily with the definition of “valuable.” It keeps moving from black and white toward shades of grey as I get older. Irritating, that…
105: Didn’t you hear? They count now.
Re: 109 Sheilds, Romero, Proctor, Betancourt, Lidge (Post 05 NLDS) are all guys that could not cut it as a closer.
Linebrink is 4/30 in Save opportunities if its not a mental thing then he has the worst luck in that spot then I have ever seen
111: 4/30… what r u smoking?
Re: 122 thats career
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4294
4 saves 26 blown
102.
Okay well then I guess Trevor only has bad nights when everyone is watching and it has nothing to do with his mental makeup not being able to take all that pressure. If you are going to say mental makeup is so important to a closer I really don’t see how you can discount Trevor’s performances on a big stage as just coincidental “bad nights”.
#111: Lidge has 51 saves since then. Yeah, he was terrible in ‘06 but still saved 32 games. This year he was much better.
#114: You understand that the vast majority of those “blown saves” weren’t games that he came in to save, right?
You’re still smoking…
Every chance he comes in in the 7th or 8th with a 1 to 3 run lead counts as a “save opportunity,” and thus if he loses the lead, it’s a blown save. But in virtually none of those (probably couple hundred) games was it a real “save opportunity,” as he held the lead, and it got turned over to Trevor or some other closer for the actual save.
So that’s just a little bogus.
113: Those almost certainly are not what you’d call “true saves.” A reliever gets a blown save in the 7th if he fails to hold a lead. Meredith had 5 this year and never pitched in the 9th with a 3 run lead or less.
GY, such a good moderator, so much more diplomatic. Apologies for my tone, Steve C.
Re 116 & 117 bleh my bad
On another note, I’m running numbers and we are now +21 WS on the Loretta for Meredith and Bard exchange.
102: Why can Hoffman blow as many as 7 of 44 chances (1997) and there’s no doubt he’s a closer, but some guy blows 4 of his first 23 chances and he’s a failure?
#120: Not your bad, MLB’s bad. There’s a reason “blown save” has the abbreviation BS. It’s a useless stat.
Rox just took game 1. Philly only scored two runs.
We could have done that.
96: Doesnt your team have to win to get win shares? With the amount that the Pirates lose I tend to find it quite amazing that Bay is that close to Giles. I have to believe if you put Bay on the Padres (a winning team for all of gile career here) he earns more win shares. I could be completely wrong about this though.
60: Because there is more to baseball than stats.
Re: 126 shhhh do you want to get us kicked out of this place!
You could look at how many times Linebrink came in with a 1-3 run lead in the 7th and 8th or whatever and then give him a save for each time he left with the lead and a BS for each time he didn’t. It’d probably be pretty high since he was a good reliever.
What would it prove? I don’t know … not much. Just that all capable relievers can put up a high “save percentage” because of the parameters of the so called stat.
125: No. A common misperception.
126, 127: The problem is that people use “attitude” or “heart” or “drive” to paper over what they can’t explain. It’s what Bill James called (language warning) a bullshit dump. It doesn’t mean that sometimes a player’s emotions don’t help or hinder him, just that it’s useless when you’re trying to build a team. This year’s Team Leader is next year’s Salary Albatross.
If Derek Jeter’s willpower was so overwhelming when the Yankees were winning WS, what happened the last 6 playoffs? And, as we’ve seen with Hoffman, the same people who want to credit him with this massive mental power have to somehow ignore his failings in playoff games. Either he failed because all pitchers do, and pitchers with declining stuff fail more, or his mental powers deserted him.
With all the issues going on with the team would you listen to offers for Peavy this offseason or wait another year. If he wins the CY Young I imagine his value will be at it’s highest. If he goes out and wins it again next year his asking price might be too high for any team to risk trading for if they knew they couldn’t sign him and if he gets hurt or has a bad season next year he looses a lot if not all of his trade value and we are left with picking up a $11mil option and hoping he rebounds. I really would hate to see Peavy go but I’m also a little bit torn because I know trading him at his highest peak value could really net us some top prospects and maybe a future star. Especially because we know his asking price in FA is going to be through the roof. After what Texas got for Texiera it seems like you would have to at least put out some feelers.
123: It shows the times a reliever blows a lead though correct? Isnt that a bit useful? Like we see Linebrink blew the lead 9 times in ‘06 and 6 times in the short season with us this year.
Can someone provide a link to a good description of WS?
By post-trade WARP1, the Padres definitely lost that trade.
B Giles: 23.3
J Bay: 26.9
O. Perez: 12.3
I’ll admit I supported the trade at the time, but can’t say I feel we won that one. If I had any slight concerns at the time, it was Ollie’s considerable potential. Bay wasn’t even in my field of vision.
Re: 130 I was kidding with 127 I understand the Bill James logic but I do think there are other factors involved, like an inspired team will play better than an uninspired team, and some players can handle pressure better than others.
Re; 131 you always listen, who knows someone may overpay for him.
133.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_shares
133: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/index.php/site/details/#winshares
129: Is it really? Because arent there 3 win shares for every team win, so in 2007 Pittsburgh has 204 total win shares and the Padres had 267 total win shares. It seems Jason Bay had less chances to earn win shares than Giles did.
133: I thought Jason Bay was black. (Who I was mixing him up with, I dunno.)
Re: 139 Ben Johnson?
130: The other problem is some people take this game and the stats too seriously. Its supposed to be fun isnt it?
Re: 141 the stat stuff is fun, it adds another demention to the game
141.
Players with bat stats don’t tend to help win ball games and winning ball games is what is fun.
143.
I meant players with BAD stats
Players with bat stats?
142: Yes the stats are fun, and they can keep the game interesting for some. But we shouldnt get mad at people because they believe there are other factors in play when the game is played besides raw stats. Most of us fell in love with this game for other reasons besides sabremetrics.
#132: How is it useful? Seriously. What can we learn about Linebrink from his blown saves total that we can’t learn any other way?
#141: The degree to which different people take the game of baseball seriously is a matter of personal preference. Some enjoy the spectacle and don’t take the game seriously at all, while others study the game in the hope of learning as much as possible about it; many more fall somewhere between the two extremes. What makes baseball beautiful is the fact that it so easily accommodates all of these groups.
147: Exactly, and why shouldnt the groups accommodate each other?
Your right about the BS, I guess I just finally saw the number of leads linebrink actually blew this year and it validated what we did, especially with the way Bell performed. But there are many other ways i could had seen that.
Re: 146 I dont think anyone is getting mad they are just discussing thier views.
Just curious, does anyone been able to watch the postseason in HD yet? I dont think cox here in OC play to carry TBS HD for sometime, maybe years.
#148: I don’t know why the groups don’t always accommodate each other. As I said back in #46, the disconnect puzzles me.
Re: 150 I watched monday nights game in HD
136 & 137: thank you
149: Your probably right. Its the internet and its hard to judge how people really feel. I guess it “sounded” like people are upset to ever have to address the subject of human emotion in playing baseball.
152: Who is your provider?
cox SD
156: This bugs, youd think with the Angels in the playoffs Cox would at least make an effort
So now that the Padre season is over anyone paying more attention to the Rugby world cup?
Re: 158 I guess not
158: Go New Zealand All Blacks.
160 … who don’t wear “all black” any more (at least according to uniwatch) …
Re: 160 GO WALLABIES
161 No there pretty much all black for the WC
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/mm/Photo/Tournament/0/WOODCOCK_3187_SQ_MEDIUM.jpg
162 … whew … here’s what got me worried …
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44133000/jpg/_44133720_rugby_afp416.jpg
163: Those were “alternates” haha
RE: 163 Bleh what were they thinking!
#151,#154 Human emotion v stats – the debate raged all year and it is a healthy one. I enjoyed reading the work provided by the numbers wonks all year. No doubt, I am a pretty radical emotionalist who was frustrated w/the bean counters at times this year (ig-the Branyan debate and his high OPS as justification for a roster spot) -but was beneficial as it forced me to see the game in a more holistic way.
126: Really?
Yes, there are a million other elements, none of which can be accurately measured, and most of the theories on things like leadership, etc. are illogical, so why trot them out.
But I love the million other elements. My favorite players are Kirk Gibson, Joaquin Andujar, Mark Fidrych, Bill Lee. Not exactly Hall of Famers or “stat guys.” But they are great characters.
However, we were discussing items today that can be backed up with facts, not what players make the game magical or something.
Bill James never considered himself a statistics guy. He just saw people saying stuff that was patently wrong and easy to disprove, so he did. He said if you are going to say something and trot out statistics, you might as well do it right.
re: Linebrink
When he had his good season, he did have a statistic equally as useless as saves. It’s called holds. His hold percentage was very good. Just like Meredith last year and Bell this season. But Linebrink and Meredith didn’t lose their composure. They just haven’t pitched as well.
166: Interesting.
I just puzzled by those who are anti-stats, especially the new ones. Why wouldn’t those folks want more info.
The stats freaks agree that intangibles exist, but by definition, intangibles can’t be measured.
108: I think we basically agree.
44 … re: record from 90% to 0% … does anybody have a link to those “in game win %” graphs? It seems possible to me that the Padres were 90% likely to win the game after the top of the 13th … which means that the record for going from 90% to 0% might be how ever long it took for Hoffy to throw 19 pitches … just sayin’ …
Looks like we were at 90.3% to make the playoffs at the start of the bottom of the 13th. Here’s the fangraphs play by play with win expectancy.
http://fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-10-01&team=Rockies&dh=0
171 … ya, that’s what I’m talking about …thanks, BenB …
138: Sorry I dropped out, my wireless went down.
Bay didn’t have less chances. When a team wins more games, the Win Shares will typically be divided among more players. When you’re one of the only good players on a team, you earn a larger share. It’s possible to have a 30 win share season, MVP-caliber, on a team that only wins 60 games and thus only 180 win shares, if you really were a dominant player.
There are two main reasons Giles caught and passed Bay in Win Shares.
1. Bay was hurt in 2004 and this year, which knocked down his games played. No win shares on the DL. It’s a measure of production, not a rate stat.
2. Giles was a hell of a lot better in 2003 (Padre portion) and 2005 than people think. A 900+ OPS in Petco is big. His 2004 wasn’t bad either.
173: Worth noting that Giles has also been injured, or he’d be out pacing Bay by more than he is.
MGL has some of his UZR data on his blog. He has top three and bottom three in both leagues for every non-catcher position. No Padres is in the bottom three, and NOG and Cameron make the top three at their positions. That’s very good news on Cameron, because he had a bad defensive first half according to UZR, so he rebounded nicely. Also notable: the worst three NL third basemen were Cabrera, Atkins, and Bautista, so Kouz was at least better than -12 runs in this system.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/best_and_worst_of_2007_uzr/
Another defensive system, based on the zone rating stats of the hardball times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=0
Results of this:
Gonzalez: +4.2, bad in zone, good out of zone
M. Giles: -1.5, great in zone, bad out of zone
Kouzmanoff: -.1, slighty better than average in zone, slightly worse out of zone
Greene: +9.2 (8th overall), great in zone, about average out
Hairston: +9.1 (combined AZ and SD, he would rank 6th combined), average in zone, good out of zone
Bradley: 5.1, good in and out of zone
Sledge: -5.3, below average in and out of zone
Cameron: -0.2, above average in zone, below out
B. Giles: +9.3, below average in zone, great out of zone
Looks like we can thank Khalil and the corner outfielders for the above average team defense this year. And encouragingly, neither of these metrics have Kouzmanoff as particularly horrible.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=wojciechowski_gene&id=3047023&sportCat=mlb
I like Wojciechowski’s point of view here. Why not use technology to help the umpires? The time spent reviewing a couple plays a game might even wash against time spent on a manager/player tirade. Even if it didn’t, wouldn’t you want the best chance for the call to be correct?
Re: 117 the umps ego will never let it happen
178: The umpire’s union was badly cracked the last time they went against MLB. Unlike players, they don’t have a constituency. It could be done, especially if you started doing it in the minors to train the next generation.