Thank You, and Winter Plans
Wed, Oct 3, 2007
by Geoff Young
So, now what? Before we get to that, I’d like to thank everyone for visiting, participating, and otherwise being a part of Ducksnorts again throughout the 2007 season. We laughed, we cried, we debated the great issues of our time.
Or something like that.
There are far too many folks to thank individually, so I’ll keep the list short. Thanks to Peter Friberg, who did a great job covering prospects for us this year. Thanks also to my unbelievably accommodating wife for believing in this crazy dream of mine. Words can’t begin to express my gratitude.
The rest of you know who you are. If I listed all your names and contributions, we’d never be done, so you get one giant pat on the back.
* * *
This is going to be a busy winter — for the Padres and for me. Sure, the season is over but we’ve got plenty more to cover over the next several months. We’ll want to figure out how the Padres can shore up some holes (second base, left and center field, back end of the rotation), keep track of guys in winter ball, and other stuff I’m forgetting. I may not have original material up every day, but we’ll always have something to discuss.
Also, I’ve got a book to write. I’m working on the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual (I’ll be sharing a rough outline with you soon) and that has me pumped.
Speaking of which, I’ve been sneaking off to the downtown library and poring over microfilm versions of the San Diego Union from 1969. Hey, where else are you going to learn that Ollie Brown hit seven homers in spring training? Or that Al Ferrara played piano at Carnegie Hall when he was 10 years old?
I’m still thinking about player dashboards. I’m still thinking about a lot of things…
* * *
I’ll also be posting daily at Knuckle Curve throughout the postseason and beyond. Who knows what else. Right now I’ve got a radio segment up at Outsider Radio and an article at Hardball Times (yeah, I wrote the Rockies playoff preview). You may or may not want to listen/read. Personally I find that ignoring stuff doesn’t make it go away, but that’s me.
Anywho. Second straight day I have no flow. I am off my game, need some R&R.
Finally, because folks ask, you may help support the Ducksnorts cause (via PayPal) if you are so inclined by clicking the button below. Always an invitation, never an obligation. Thanks again for everything. Rock on…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 3, 2007 at 8:53 am
Here is a name that might be interesting… Dontrelle Willis. It would probably take a high prospect and then some but I am always interested in him. He did have an off year but I do love a lefty in the rotation and I would love to see what Balsley might do with him. He would likely be cheaper to get than Santana. I assume it would start with Headley and then they could put Cabrerra in left where he belongs. It’s probably a pipe dream but Peavy, Willis, Young, Maddux rotation would easily be one of the best in the league on paper.
October 3, 2007 at 9:01 am
1 - what’s the D-train’s nemesis, the flyball/HR or the hard hit liner? The former Petco can help with, the latter not so much.
October 3, 2007 at 9:01 am
1: Willis would certainly be an interesting idea. Not sure if I like it, but it’s interesting. He could also probably fetch better prospects than what we’ve got.
GY, thanks again for everything you do. I have no idea what this season would have been like for me without Ducksnorts. It’s nice to have a venue where people can rationally debate the team we all love.
So, is anybody going to still watch the playoffs? Fall TV just kicked in for me, and I just started my MBA program, so I doubt I’ll watch much of the Fall Classic. However, if I’m pulling for an ideal WS, it’s an Angels/Rox affair.
October 3, 2007 at 9:02 am
I posted this in yesterdays Blog this morn but ill re-post in this one
Tim McCellen was on the Dan Patric show this morning (AM 570). He said he has seen the replay several times and he thinks that he got the call right because he has not seen a replay showing that he got it wrong.
He also said that he delayed his call because he wanted to see if Barrett held onto the ball or not, and when he saw the ball rolling away he called Atkins safe.
DP asked him if Barrett would have hung onto the ball then Atkins would have still been safe anyways because he touched the plate before Barrett applied the tag.
I dont know when 1090 is going to start playing the DP show in the afternoon but you amy want to toon in to see i they are going to play it, I think the interview starts about an hour and 20 min into the show.
October 3, 2007 at 9:03 am
Re: 3 Ill watch the AL cause I would like to see the indians do well and the yankees get crushed.
October 3, 2007 at 9:11 am
I’ll watch a little bit but I don’t really care anymore. I used to live in Cleveland so I always have a bit of an interest in the Indians and I have always liked the Angels but really I’m over it. Monday really knocked the wind out of me. If we would have gotten killed I would be cool with it but for it to end like that… BAH HUMBUG! First the Chargers and the Patriots and now the Pads and the Rocks. This year has really hurt to be a San Diego sports fan.
October 3, 2007 at 9:13 am
Re: 6 where are the Gulls and Soccers when you need them?
October 3, 2007 at 9:17 am
2.
Yeah I guess I really just hope maybe we can get a guy with some succes to fill out the rotation. I’m a little tired of the castoff/4A type of starters we seem to always try and run out there. At the end of the season we relied so much on Peavy and it would be nice to have another guy to lean on if CY goes down and Mad dog fizzles. I’m afraid CY’s back may become more of a yearly issue just do to his size and stuff.
October 3, 2007 at 9:24 am
I think Az and Bos in the WS. Az has the best pitching of the NL teams. Col and Phils are just happy to be in, an attutude that doesn’t get you far. Az are on a mission. Cubs, well they are cursed, right! Don’t really care though, beside, hate the Fox coverage, they get the sound all wrong and TM is hard to take.
MBA?, thinking of that myself, what program are you in, Phantom?
October 3, 2007 at 9:24 am
OK, I’ll bring it up. Who read Canepa’s column (Pads overachieved) this morning?
He says the Padres batted .251 and were awful with RISP, citing Monday’s 3-13 performance. Whether it’s a junk stat or not, the Pads hit .271/.356/.436 with RISP, weren’t as good with 2 outs but still better than the bases empty line of .240/.305/.402. I have a feeling there’s a columnist for each eliminated team writing this morning that their team needs to improve its clutch hitting.
He also cited the total strikeouts by Cameron, Gonzalez and Greene as “not exactly what CEO Sandy “Moneyball” Alderson preaches.
October 3, 2007 at 9:34 am
If I remember correctly in Moneyball they said a strike out was just another out.
No one who pays attention would ever say KG was a moneyball player, he doesn’t fit the common theme of OBP and more generally someone who posts those counting catagories is never going to be undervalued by the market if they are a FA.
*NOT SAYING ANYTHING IS WRONG WITH KG, PLEASE DON’T ACT LIKE I AM!!!!!!!!!!*
It is going to be an interesting off season, anyone think they try to move Giles since little bro isn’t going to be coming back?
October 3, 2007 at 9:34 am
RE: 1 et al. I don’t know how I feel about Willis either. I haven’t looked at his peripherals in a while, but I recall them being troubling. And, because he is very marketable, I don’t think you’re going to get good bang for your buck, so to speak. Sure, he’ll be less expensive than Santana. That’s mostly because he isn’t nearly as good as Santana.
At this point, I think we need to focus more on our position players. We didn’t get out pitched too often this year. We did, however, get outhit quite often, and shoot ourselves in the foot when the ball went anywhere other than to SS, CF, 1B, and, every five days, P.
So…does anyone think we should go after Andruw Jones? Who else might be on the market? Do we re-sign Bradley if the price is right?
Here is a good list of the 2008 free agents:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ree_a.html
October 3, 2007 at 9:35 am
9: I’m in an MBA prgram at CSUSB. It’s nothing glamorous, but it fits around my work schedule, so I don’t complain.
I’ve already been put in contact with people at the High Desert Mavericks to see if I’d be interesting in an internship there next year (which I definitely am), but between work and school, there’s no way I can do it until I finish the program.
The primary reason I’m pursuing an MBA is to find a way into professional baseball. There are a handfdul of minor league affiliates within an hour of me, so I’m hoping to break into one of those in the next few years.
October 3, 2007 at 9:36 am
10: Sometimes it’s like Canepa rolls himself towards his desk, his gut crushes the keyboard, and the resulting characters are close enough to English that his editor can work with it.
The “moneyball” reference is perfect. So Nick doesn’t understand the popular definition of moneyball, nor does he understand what the A’s operating concept really was and is.
October 3, 2007 at 9:39 am
11: Don’t try to hide your KG hatred from me!!! I can smell it all the way in San Bernardino county!!! :-p
I really wish I had Canepa’s job. I have experience writing published articles. I bet I could even write things that were more intelligible and factually accurate than him.
Of course, so could a sixth grader.
October 3, 2007 at 9:39 am
Thanks Geoff for all of your hard work on this site. Looking forward to an interesting off season. I like the idea of going after Mark Prior.
October 3, 2007 at 9:43 am
re 12: Actually they got out pitched a ton from the 4/5 spots in the rotation a lot of it is hidden by Petco though.
October 3, 2007 at 9:45 am
Re: 15 no thats Caronna not hatred
October 3, 2007 at 9:49 am
12: I gotta disagree. We got outpitched a lot when it was anybody but Peavy, Maddux, or first half, pre-injury Chris Young on the mound. 2/5 of our starts were made by below-league-average pitchers.
http://www.baseball-reference......2007.shtml
Those ERA+ numbers for the back end of the staff are ugly. Germano’s production would be tolerable in the 5 spot, but his might have fallen even further if they hadn’t pulled him.
October 3, 2007 at 9:52 am
OT: Just found this via GLB…
http://www.lasnark.com/101-best-baseball-blogs
Proud to represent at #44.
October 3, 2007 at 9:59 am
17 & 19: Completely agree that pitching should be one of our top priorities this season. Tomko is a credible emergency fifth starter, but I would really like to round out the rotation with more dominant arms.
October 3, 2007 at 10:01 am
I hate to say it but I think we will be seeing jason jennings in Petco next year. We all know when KT locks in on a guy KT will get that guy.
October 3, 2007 at 10:07 am
22: These are Jennings’ career stats. I haven’t digested them enough to make an opinion.
ERA: 4.91 (!) - could be the Coors effect
K/9: 6
K/BB: 1.51
BAA: .284
OPS Against: 805 (!)
WHIP: 1.55 (ouc)
HR/9: 1.1
Ok, so this guy sucks. Unless I’m missing something?
October 3, 2007 at 10:08 am
22: That might not be the worst idea if Jennings was pitching hurt.
Speaking of Andruw Jones I think Canepa was outdone by this columnist: http://www.ajc.com/blogs/conte.....e_big.html
“That said, with the new folks at Liberty Media claiming they are willing to increase the payroll, the Braves’ Designated Geniuses should have discovered ways to acquire much-needed starting pitching while keeping Jones. In fact, Jones was part of the solution regarding that starting pitching. He is the hidden reason the Braves produced Cy Glavine, Cy Smoltz and Cy Maddux, along with all of those consecutive years of team ERAs that ranked first or second in baseball. He caught everything. He threw out everybody. He made the spectacular routine. He did so through an 11th year with the Braves that will produce a 10th Gold Glove, but management will shove Jones out the door by allowing him to become a free agent while yawning.”
Most of the 100-some commenters shred him and back the Braves’ decision.
October 3, 2007 at 10:13 am
20: Better be careful GY John Kruk might write a book or go on TV and declare that # retired. lol
October 3, 2007 at 10:19 am
I think the Padres played pretty well down the stretch, all things considered. They were missing two of their starting outfielders, were playing a utilityman at 2B and only really had one effective starting pitcher (Jake Peavy). They also had one of the worst bullpens in the NL in the 2nd half of the season. However, they somehow managed to hang around until the very end and lost a playoff game on the road to a team that had won 14 of 15 games and just swept them in Petco a week before. Obviously the end result wasn’t what you wanted but it’s highly doubtful that the Padres were going anywhere in the postseason.
As far as the changes for next season, I’m not sure that Hairston should be given the left-field job. I think he should be given another shot to see if he can play 2B (doubtful) and if not they can use him to platoon with B.Giles in RF and start some in the outfield. Hairston just makes too many outs (much like Greene) to justify playing him everyday in a high offense spot.
October 3, 2007 at 10:21 am
20: I’m sorry. I’m sure there are folks who post or lurk at both, but DS wipes the floor with Gaslamp Ball (No. 15 on that list). Maybe I just haven’t been over there enough to discover the magic, although I did enjoy a thread or two during the last couple series. I was amazed at how many comments there were in the open threads. Honestly, this season I rarely thought to check it out.
GY, I’m not writing this to elicit a repsponse, as I imagine you might be buds with the peeps over there.
October 3, 2007 at 10:22 am
[duplicate comment removed]
October 3, 2007 at 10:26 am
16.
I would definitely take a chance on him!
11.
You bring up a really good point about moving Giles. It would have to be the perfect situation for a team to take him on but I think a team right there on the brink of being a world series contender might be willing to take him. His contract would be 1 year 10mil with a 3mil buyout or something right? I could see either one of the NYY teams being interested in him especially because Bobby Abreu and Shawn Green probably won’t be back. I could see Cleveland being interested maybe even the Angels or Oakland. We probably wouldn’t get much in return for him so it would basically be a money dump situation.
The bigger question is in rebuilding I think. It seems pretty obvious that AZ and CO are no longer basement dwellers in the division and are here to stay. We have some good fairly young talent but the FO needs to decide to rebuild all at once or over a couple of years. Do it all at once and the fans will kills you. We have basically our infield of the future taken care of with Kouz or Headley and Antonelli but we have a whole outfield to deal with. Getting rid of (or trying to) Giles would open up money and a spot but would probably lower our production and we would loose a good player. It’s way too early to tell but as soon as the world series is over things are sure to get pretty interesting.
October 3, 2007 at 10:27 am
FWIW, Keith Olbermann listed Bud Black and Barrett on his list of “Best Person of the Day” segment yesterday for their reaction and post-game comments regarding the final play of the game on Monday.
I’d like to see Willis here because I think he would benefit from Petco and mentoring from the pitching staff. IIRC, Peavy and Willis became friends a couple of years ago during a MLB tour of Japan, so maybe bringing Willis in would make resigning Jake to a longer term contract next year a little easier.
Cameron showed a lot to the Padres and the rest of the league on Monday, which I think may have raised his stock in the Padre clubhouse as well as others. I think from a personality standpoint I’d rather have Cameron than Jones and from a potential performance standpoint I’d rather have Jones. Monday proved that we need a better than league average glove in CF.
I’m at a loss as to what to do about Bradley. That being said, I think Bradley has shown that his downside may override his upside such that he should not be regarded as a starter but a bench player capable of starting between injuries and suspensions.
In the meantime, I’m going to prepare for my 18th year of officiating high school wrestling and continue to plug away at my M.Ed. and single-subject credential as I change careers from environmental/land planning consulting. I should start student teaching before pitchers and catchers report in the Spring.
Thank you Geoff and everyone for keeping me informed and entertained and putting up with my occasional “foot in mouth” posts.
October 3, 2007 at 10:30 am
Yes, our 4-5 spots were sometimes underwhelming (Germano), and mostly terrible (Wells and Hensley). But perhaps I wasn’t clear enough about my comment. Is spending the money that it would take to sign Dontrelle (or a marquee starter) worth it to shore up a 4-5 starter? Or would that money be better spent on a positional hole and offense?
Granted, this is assuming we’re talking about the front end of Peavy / Maddux / Young remaining intact and healthy, which could be quite an assumption with Chris Young.
Jennings, for example, might not be the worst idea, if, as suggested, he was pitching hurt. In his last full season he was pretty dominant. But what about guys like Tony Armas?
Mostly, I just think we need to take the line-up to the next level if we really expect to compete.
October 3, 2007 at 10:32 am
To me part of the apeal of Ducksnorts is that its the same people posting everyday that know 30 times more about baseball than I do, and somehow GY keeps out alot of the riff-raff that post on the Padres message board and other blogs that shall remain nameless.
We all know DS is the best blog bar-none if someone wants to rank it #44 then hey its thier loss.
October 3, 2007 at 10:37 am
How do you like that downtown library? Jbox and I visited their “Baseball” section when it was announced that they were going to be making a more concerted effort at getting it more SABRlike, but we didn’t see much that was extra special. Has it improved?
Also, 32. a Padres fan is a Padres fan is a Padres fan. Everybody enjoys the game in their own way and shouldn’t be judged for it even if some are especially critical and/or fairweather.
Unless, by “riff-raff” you’re talking about the fact that GLB seems to attract a lot of opposing team trolls, in which case, you’re right. Geoff does a great job at somehow avoiding that.
October 3, 2007 at 10:38 am
Re: 29 I dont think after the loss to CO they can go into full re-build mode next season, I think 09 will be the natural season to clean house and bring up all your young talent and see what sticks.
After 08 Maddux, Giles, and Hoffy are all out the door, Jake will be going into the last year of his deal, and Khalil will in his last arbitration year.
The Pads will have also givin hairston a chance in LF to see if he pans out and will give Kouz another shot at 3B for a year.
October 3, 2007 at 10:38 am
Re: DS vs. GLB
They’re very different communities. DS is the place for more serious and stat-heavy discussion.
GLB is more off-the-wall, more reactionary, and more wacky.
I came to value each of them equally over the course of the season. If I wanted strong analysis or if I wanted to float an idea bout a potential player, I’d come here. If I wanted to blow off steam or compare Khalil to robots, I’d go to GLB.
At either rate, I can’t imagine watching a Padres game without my computer anymore. Even when I’m at the games, I wish I had my laptop with me.
October 3, 2007 at 10:41 am
Re: 33 I was not taling about GLB when I said other blogs, or really any other Padres Blogs for that matter, I was looking more at snakepitt, thinkblue ect…
October 3, 2007 at 10:46 am
35: I should clarify that GLB isn’t somehow less imporant or less serious than Ducksnorts. I’ve had some great in-depth conversations about players over there as well.
Typically, DS is a more stat-driven site.
October 3, 2007 at 10:54 am
27. I don’t mind at all that anybody thinks DS is a better blog than GLB. I do think that it’s possible to enjoy both. Ducksnorts is really good at strong baseball analysis, with great stories about baseball sprinkled in. I like to think that GLB focuses on crazy baseball stories, with relatively decent analysis sprinkled in.
Also, I appreciate that the LA Snark list gets both of our blogs, but honestly, thisblogsox.com is good, but hardly the best baseball blog on the internet. If I were Geoff, I wouldn’t take offense that these LA Snark readers only ranked DS 45, though I think we should all gloat that we ranked higher than Dodger Thoughts. HA!
I’m just looking forward to some of the newer Padres blogs to really start to get their legs also. No reason why the Padres should be so underrepresented in the blogosphere.
October 3, 2007 at 10:55 am
I love Gaslampball. They are wacky.
October 3, 2007 at 10:59 am
31: In a lot of cases, yes, it would be worth it. Not necessarily Willis, but if you upgraded from 160 innings of Germano to 160 innings of AJ Burnett, that’s probably going to get you more W’s than “upgrading” from Hairston/Bradley to Gonzalez, or NOG/Blum to Iguchi. And if you really had a shot at a marquee pitcher, like Santana, the gap is even bigger.
October 3, 2007 at 11:02 am
#27: I appreciate the sentiment, but I don’t see DS and GLB as competitors in the broader scheme. We are all part of the community that is Padres fandom. I also happen to be a GLB fan. They’re good folks doing good work.
#33: I’m enjoying it very much, thanks. Just discovered the baseball section, which is a blast. I spend most of my time looking at old newspapers or referencing places I passed through on my trip to Cooperstown (another project), but I’ve been impressed with their baseball books as well. For one thing, they have Craig Wright’s Diamond Appraised, which I’ve been wanting to read since, like, forever. Not that I’ll have an opportunity in the immediate future, but it’s nice to know it’ll be there when I need it.
#37: Yeah, we’re taking different approaches to the same thing. It’s all good, to use a terrible phrase.
#38: Roger that. The more, the merrier.
Keep that hot stove burning…
October 3, 2007 at 11:39 am
Since I provoked some comments and Dex came by and refrained from calling me a Jack Clark …
I don’t want to be one of those lame butts who backs down from comments made, but “wipe the floor with” was overcooked. I just dig that phrase, I guess.
At times, I’ve been surprised that DS isn’t bigger, but it’s too much to expect the cumulative comments to compete with, say, Dodger Thoughts. (OTOH, it’s nice not to stop by at 2 p.m. and have 400 comments to consider digesting.) I suppose I’m indebited to GY’s fine site for permanently rescuing me from the horror that is http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pf.....=ml-padres
So Bavasi is sticking in Seattle? I love ya, Brian, but let’s go get Adam Jones.
October 3, 2007 at 11:41 am
Considering my line of work, I suck at this.
Edited:
(OTOH, it’s nice to stop by at 2 p.m. and not have 400 comments to consider digesting.)
October 3, 2007 at 12:03 pm
We need to get in front of this “San Diego Sportsfan Curse” business. Certainly Monday’s game on top of Saturday’s game gives us serious momentum in that direction.
And Clay Davenport at BP has pointed out that we’ve actually set a record. While our collapse (from a 90.6% postseason chance)doesn’t match that of the Mets (99.8% chance), we collapsed FASTER than anyone ever has. From Davenport:
“The gist of what I was working on was that there were 32 teams, going back to 1873 and the National Association, where a team had reached a 90 percent probability of reaching the postseason, and then failed to do so. What I was looking at…was, specifically, how fast they were able to blow it, and go from 90 to nothing…
…So, the record stood at six [days], right up until this year’s Mets did the job in five days. However, they held that record for all of about 33 hours, because when Tim McClelland called Matt Holliday safe last night, he also zeroed out a Padre team that had been at 90 percent just three days earlier.”
So we are record-setters in our cursedness.
So…next step… identify the source of the curse. Boston had its Bambino, the Cubs have their goat, Philly has the buildings taller than Ben Franklin’s statue thing (lame, but whatever).
So can we open up the floor for “source of the curse” nominations? Some parameters… has to be related to events happening after 1963 (SD AFL championship), ’cause surely we weren’t cursed then, but certainly before October, 1998, when Langston’s non-called strikeout was irrefuteable evidence that a curse was in place.
So… any thoughts? Me, I’m thinking it might have something to do with Roger Hedgecock…
October 3, 2007 at 12:04 pm
The Mission Valley Library (by Costco) also has some SABR or SABR-type publications. They have some good Negro League/Caribbean League type books. Especially interesting is a book on the California Winter League - a racially mixed league in CA during the 20s and 30s.
The Diamond Appraised is an excellent book. It is funny to read b/c some of today’s stats v. scouting/ballplayers know better debates are echoed in that almost 20 year old book.
I am generally a statistics/SABRmetrics type of person (first Abstract was 1984 for me), but when I look at the current, successful Padres of the past 4 years, I see one big difference with the 95-98 Padres. I cannot believe I am going to say this, but attitude. The Cammy/Finley/(for one year) Brown Padres appeared to want to win every game. I don’t know how many of you were fans in 98. I went to about 25 games that year and that team just seemed to say, “We are going to win this game.” The current team is more of a “We want to win this game.” They seem to lack passion.
Do I want them to sign a Rex Hudler-type? NOOOOOO! I want to see the team be more passionate, I guess.
OK, that’s long enough. Keep up the great work GY.
October 3, 2007 at 12:11 pm
#45: Thanks, Kelly, for the tip. Clairemont has very little, but MV isn’t far away; I’ll have to swing by there.
As for scout/stat debates, those always confuse me. If people knew their history a little better, they’d realize that some of this stuff goes back at least to Branch Rickey, who is generally held in high regard by most fans I know. Why anyone takes issue with the desire to gain every possible advantage is beyond me, but oh well.
October 3, 2007 at 12:47 pm
When Jason Bay’s name was brought up, did someone mention a deal, say, Headley + someone else. This idea was floated on mlbtraderumors.com.
October 3, 2007 at 1:14 pm
re: No offense, but let’s not.
The curses of the Red Sox and Cubs is why I won’t pull for them. They’re stupid and irrational. To invent one would seem like gloming on.
I don’t pull for any team that has fans who believe in curses.
October 3, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Re: 47 there were a few floating around I think it was Headly + Greene + Prospect for Bay and Wilson. but lets not go down that path again it lead to 100+ comments of Khalil debate.
October 3, 2007 at 1:20 pm
To Coronado Mike:
Didn’t mean to rip you too bad yesterday.
But my general thesis is what a lot of other posters were saying: that there is very little truth to mental makeup being a part of being a good/great closer.
For that to be the case, Hoffman must have had terrible mental makeup the other night. But great mental makeup otherwise. What he had was terrible location.
October 3, 2007 at 1:21 pm
44- everyone knows it’s because we retired Garvey’s number.
October 3, 2007 at 1:21 pm
The team already traded Bay for Giles, which we would probably like to have back. Why trade another great prospect for a guy who *could* be on the downside?
October 3, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Re: 50 ask the redsox how well closer by committee works
October 3, 2007 at 1:25 pm
53: I don’t think I said a thing about that. Where did you get that?
October 3, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Oh, no, the Coach is recommending his listeners to read Canepa’s column.
October 3, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Re: 54 it goes off the theory that being a closer has more to do with “stuff” then mental makeup
October 3, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Right, and if you look at that season with the Red Sox, those relievers pitched poorly. That’s a pitching issue, not a mental makeup issue.
If the committee had pitched well, then everyone would have said Theo Epstien and Bill James were geniuses.
October 3, 2007 at 1:30 pm
52 - exactly. Plus, SA is widely quoted in his admiration for the Rockies and D’backs ability to plug holes in the majors from their farm systems. You don’t get that way trading good prospects for maybe have/maybe haven’t peaked major leaguers. The only people we should trade prospects for, IMO, are ML-ready or close to it prospects (ala Kouzmanoff) that fill holes in our system (CF anyone?) and deal from strength (current 3B situation this offseason).
October 3, 2007 at 1:31 pm
48: I largely agree with you. It is “stupid and irrational.” But if you can’t pull for a team whose fans believe in a curse, then you can’t root for the Padres any more. ‘Cause it’s already out there in many Padres fans’ minds; it already has its own Wikipedia entry!
I just see this as an opportunity to have a little fun in shaping and molding the legend into something truly ludicrous and fun.
October 3, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Also, maybe I’m just a stats-sensitive guy, but why is this site or others called “stats-driven,” when they should really be called “fact-driven.”
October 3, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Re: 57 but the problem is a pitchers “stuff” can change in different situations because of his mental makeup. Some pitchers cant handel the pressure when your only up by a run and you just gave up a double with no outs other guys cant.
October 3, 2007 at 1:34 pm
59: It could be fun. I’ll admit that.
But I would rather start a movement to take that wiki page down instead of feeding the monster.
By they way, it would of course be when Jack Clark and Garry Templeton were clubhouse cancers, and Templeton hung the doll of Tony Gwynn in the clubhouse. You can’t to that to the best player in franchise history.
October 3, 2007 at 1:35 pm
52: Well, Keith Law said …
58: Isn’t Headley a third basemen? I’m not endorsing a Headley package for Jason Bay. Just one poster’s idea on that Web site.
I think this offseason could be very boring, but it could become really interesting if the FO decides to move one of those Missions. If they don’t want to give Cameron three years, then they’ll have to get creative about CF.
October 3, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Re: 62 why did he hang a doll of TG?
October 3, 2007 at 1:36 pm
61: Well, I just think that theory is false.
And to make a long story short, both sides of the argument thing the other side is total bunk. One is based on baseball ability, fact-driven, those who don’t believe in clutch ability vs. those who believe highly in intangibles, Jimmy Rollins as MVP, etc.
October 3, 2007 at 1:38 pm
64: Because he hated Gwynn and thought he was selfish, but I’ll look up more info in one of the Bill James’ books.
October 3, 2007 at 1:39 pm
65, so Bill James vs like Bob Costas?
October 3, 2007 at 1:41 pm
65: Is Rollins and his .340 OBP really that poor a choice for MVP? I haven’t checked VORP and WARP lately. Wait, you probably want Soriano to win it. He did hit 14 homers in September, right?
October 3, 2007 at 1:42 pm
61: I don’t think there’s any sign of that. We could find a period comparable to the Red Sox C by C in most closer’s careers. The hyperoverreaction to that approach began on Opening Night, when they blew a save against Tampa. When Hoffman blows a save on Opening Day, nobody screams about the failings of the Classic Closer.
October 3, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Something like that. Although I don’t find Costas to be full of old baseball theories and cliches. I don’t want to mention a substitute for Costas, because it will probably be someone hateable.
October 3, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Kentera just said the Padres have a 7.5 mil club option for ‘08 on Hoffman or a 2.5 mil buyout. C’mon, John.
October 3, 2007 at 1:43 pm
45. Keaches think alike. The Padres need more players with “ganas.” As Jaime Escalante said in Stand and Deliver: “You got to have ganas - desire.” Peavy, Bell, Hoffman, Maddux - these are players with ganas. The everyday line-up was full of flatliners.
To start with, I think the Padres should sign somebody whose sole purpose would be to wait in the dugout after Khalil hits a home run, pull off his helmet, and mess up his hair and give him a noogie.
October 3, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Re: 71 Hoffy option was automatically exercised when he hit 45 GF in 06
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....adres.html
October 3, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Re: 72 you think they should sign sweeny?
October 3, 2007 at 1:48 pm
72 - I think Bud enabled that more casual attitude with his “sunday lineups” and so on. It always seemed if we took the first 2 games of a series he would use game 3 to get key guys some rest. I’m not opposed to resting guys, but when you pull that particular lever often enough it says “not all of these games matter guys”.
That said, this team was very “together” all year, and sometimes the more fiery, rah-rah guys can mess that up more than help it.
Overall, I don’t think we lost the division on attitude, we lost it on late season unavailability of key guys (MB, Cammy, the pre-oblique CY, the pre-back tweak Maddux, the pre-sucking NOG).
October 3, 2007 at 1:52 pm
51 … BING!
October 3, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Rox up 3-2 on Phils in the 6th. This game totally snuck up on me, I had forgotten it was starting this early. Apparently Matt Holliday has not touched home plate 3 times already.
October 3, 2007 at 1:53 pm
64: James has more than a page on this subject in his 1991 book.
I’ll try to summarize:
In May 1990, Mike Pagliarulo said of an unknown teammate: “If we win and he goes 0-for-4, forget it. He’s ticked. If he gets his hits and we lose, that’s fine with him. He doesn’t give a damn about this team, and that’s weak.”
Gwynn thought the remarks were aimed at him and fired back in the newspaper about how the Padres are taking him for granted and he is the sixth-highest paid player on the team.
May 24 — players-only meeting. Clark and Templeton “blasted [Gwynn] for caring more about his batting average than winning.”
Sept. 8 — Gwynn found a toy figurine of himself hanging by a chain in the Padres’ dugout.
There’s a long quote from Gwynn about how he was pissed and “people want to see him fail” and he had a photographer take a picture of it and he hung it above his locker so no one would forget it.
Sept. 15 — Gwynn broke his right index finger. Out for season.
Sept. 19 — He had surgery and opted not to stay with the team for the rest of the season. (Who could blame him, I say?)
This started another snit about Gwynn not being a team guy. …
I’ll continue in antoher post.
October 3, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Re: 78 thanks, I had no idea TG did not get along with all of the 84 guys
October 3, 2007 at 1:56 pm
73: Yeah, somebody should tell Kentera that. He still hasn’t clarified his comment.
October 3, 2007 at 1:58 pm
man 1090 needs to get better hosts
October 3, 2007 at 1:59 pm
68: Soriano wasn’t among the top 10 players in the league. Voting for him based on September would be just as egregious as voting for Rollins.
Rollins is proably among the top 10 players in the league, but not much more.
Wright, Pujols, Utley, Cabrera, Holliday and H. Ramirez were all better than Rollins. They had better seasons.
A .340 on-base for a leadoff man is not good. .350 should be about the minimum. It’s silly that people are making a big deal out of Rollins’ at-bats record. That’s not a positive. That means he rarely walks.
October 3, 2007 at 2:00