From October 1, 2004:
Well, it’s October and technically the Padres still aren’t out of the race. Or, if you’re reading this later in the day, maybe they are.
The Pads have already won 22 more games than they did all last year (and they still have three more to go against the worst team in baseball), and they’re the only NL team that had a losing record in 2003 that managed to push themselves above .500 in 2004. They’ve surpassed my preseason prediction of 84 wins (which I actually worried might be overly optimistic). The Padres will end up within shouting distance of the 800 runs forecast by GM Kevin Towers despite getting virtually no production from the key free agent acquisition (Jay Payton) and a whopping nine homers from Ryan Klesko.
The Padres scrapped and battled, and slowly began to believe they could win. Fan support was tremendous, eclipsing the 3 million mark for the first time in club history on the final day. But for all the positives, we are left frustrated and disappointed by a season that could have been so much more. In what looks to be their fifth best season in 35 years of existence, the Padres repeatedly failed to execute in key situations (how often can a team have two runners on base with nobody out and not score?). They made questionable roster decisions (Eddie Oropesa, Jason Szuminski, Kerry Robinson, the #5 starter revolving door, failure to acquire any names bigger than Rich Aurilia and Dave Hansen for the stretch run) and fielded a squad that collectively wasn’t well suited for their new ballpark and who individually seemed all too aware of and frustrated by that fact.
I should be happy, and for the most part I am. This truly has been a great season of Padres baseball, and Petco Park takes advantage of what San Diego has to offer in ways that the Q never could. Every time I step into the ballpark and look out onto the skyline, I am reminded of how blessed I am to call this city — for whatever faults it may have — my home. Corny as it sounds, I do take pride in Petco and the way it shows off our city. And this year, unlike in years past, I have been able to take pride in the Padres as well. Even when they’ve struggled to execute or blamed the new park for their problems, I’ve never doubted their desire to win. That’s not something I’ve always been able to say about some of the recent editions. Then again, it’s hard to get too worked up about these things when you’re routinely losing 90+ games a year.
On the one hand, I find it irritating beyond words that the Padres haven’t been able to wrap up a playoff spot and must visit Coors Field to play one game (or flip a coin, if you prefer) against the hottest team in baseball. On the other, I’m grateful that the Padres are committed to fielding a competitive ballclub, and that they at least have given themselves a chance to make a third straight postseason appearance.
Monday’s game starts at 4:37 p.m. PT, and will be broadcast on TBS and XM 183 [update: the Padres feed can be found on XM 184; hat tip to Phantom in the comments]. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Luck permitting, it won’t be our last…
176 Comments
Agree that its nice to be 1 of 9 teams to play game 163+, and we should thank KT, SA, and JM. Met fan and Brewer fan are really hurting. That being said….well, not gonna think about it. One game, we’ll see who wins….its that simple.
Anyone know if the game will be on MLB.tv? I have officially moved East and do not have cable yet…don’t think I want to hit a sports bar my first night in town…still have to unpack my clothes or something…
I think its only on TBS, so you may have to hit a sports bar….moving to the east from Coronado, that is brutal….I thought moving from Poway was bad
Where did you move mike?
Also if the Padres play like they did last night you may want to be at a bar anyways.
Ugh, what a turd sandwich of a weekend for SD sports in total – for the 2nd straight weekend!
If you’ve got DirecTV, like I do, you’re all set w/ TBS HD (channel 75 or 76 I believe).
As bad as not winning one of those 2 games is, I’m very happy not to be a Met fan, Brewer fan, or, for that matter, a Giant, Dodger, Astro, Nationals, etc, fan.
Peavy on full rest, Bell and Hoffman with a night off. Can’t complain about the set up, though Coors does funky things to pitchers. The script would be 7 from Jake, 1 each from Heath and Trevor and head to Philly.
Most encouraging line is Josh Fogg who will be starting tonight for the Rockies has a 6.28 ERA against San Diego this year with the Padres hitting .369 against him.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4753
He’s pitched better since the break, but he still walks a lot of guys and you can hit against him. The key is the Padres better get to him early because the Rockies bullpen is tough
I have to disagree with Geoff to a degree. He said he’s grateful ownership has shown a commitment to winning. But, at what point do we wonder about ownership’s commitment to winning? There’s a world of difference between “contending” and winning championships.
Remember the off-season between 97 and 98?
The team went out and made a huge splash, picking up Kevin Brown in a move that shouted “we want to win the World Series.”
They simply have not done that since.
I love the Padres, and I trust John Moores and Kevin Towers, but at some point I’m going to start to think Moores is happy with contending, and drawing 2.8 million fans, but not taking the next step.
8: Um, we have more wins this year than we did last year. We are competing in the best division in baseball. I’m totally fine with playing a play-in game today. We’ve had some awful luck at times over the past 162 games that could have made the difference between us not needing to play this game today.
The scheduling the past two weeks for the Padres and the Rockies also had a profound impact. This is not an excuse, but the Rockies got to play teams that rolled over for them. The Padres didn’t quite have that luxury.
We’ve got Jake on the mound, and we’ve got Coors field. We should win this thing. I’ll be cheering and keeping track of the game as best as I can, but my class starts at 6, which really, really, really blows. With any luck, by the time 6 0′clock rolls around, Fogg will be out of the game and we’ll be up by more than four runs.
Keep the faith! Experience it! Mission October!
There was one big difference between Brown and a lot of the FA’s who might have been fits in San Diego since then….contract length. I’m certain that if they could deal Antonelli for 1 year of Johan Santana they’d do it in a second…those types of deals aren’t as easy anymore.
The Brewers are celebrating their first winning season in 15 years. 15 years of games after July meaning essentially nothing. How’s that for putting things in perspective? As a Padres’ fan, I’m just thankful to be watching games that count every September.
Khalil is gonna hit two dingers today and we’ll head to Philly!
#8: What is the difference between contending and wanting to win the World Series? This sounds like a flip question, but I’m serious. Seems to me that if you get into the playoffs, you’ve got a chance. See, e.g., ‘87 Twins, ‘97 Marlins, ‘03 Marlins, ‘06 Cardinals…
after the Padres win tonight (trying to stay positive) how does thier rotation set up for the playoffs?
Weds: Maddux
Thurs: Young
Sat: Peavy
Sun: Maddux
Tue: Young
Re 8: The Brown move screamed “We really want the people to vote yes on a ballpark” more than anything. The Padres were a very good team in 1996, had some rough luck in 1997, and were set to bounce back in 1998, and Brown definitely solidified things and helped push them over the top from an underdog position, vis-a-vis the powerhouse Astros and Braves. Moores was willing to lose money to bring back the fans and get the new ballpark, but he wasn’t willing to do it ad infinitum. That is why a new ballpark was so important to him, to make the team more self-sustaining.
He got that, and the fans so far have got four straight years of competitive, playoff-contending or playoff-making baseball. Seems like a pretty good bargain.
Go Peavy! Go Padres!
Re 12: Obviously, you have to win the World Series or be favored to win it going in to really “want” it. Everything else is smoke and mirrors, bait and switch.
I’m still pretty amazed that we are still in this position to get into the playoffs today after last weekend. When we lost Cammy and Milton I completely wrote off the Padres chances to make the playoffs at all. The fact that the Rockies have not played MLB caliber teams the past couple of series may help us also. I fully expect Jake to come out blazing today and although I may have felt differently yesterday I am so glad he is pitching today. Come on Win # 20!!!
9: The only thing I’d disagree with you is that the Rockies totally beat the Padres at home for that series and had the Padres won one of those games, no game today. Still, you are right that the Dodgers suck and so was the Snakes in the last two games.
Still, I’m glad the Padres are playing a game today.
Go Padres! Beat the Rockies.
16: I fully agree about giving up when Cameron and Bradley went down. A week ago, I looked like I had been slugged in teh gut. I’m still happy to be in the race.
If the Padres lose today, then my new mantra over the winter will probably be “Anthony ‘Freaking’ Gwynn”.
Why do I feel so pessemistic about this game? Because the rockies have our number, that least at Petco. Maybe we play them better at coors. Jake will keep them in check, but we need the lead into the 7 inning, we simply can’t come from behind. Man, the rockies hit well.
8: i tend to agree with you. I think there is a difference between hoping to contend and wanting to win. KT does a great job with the money he has to work with. I just dont think JM is willing to take the next step to make this team a real threat to win it all from game 1.
Re: 19 Makes you wish that KT would have held out for TGjr in the Linebrink deal
#22: But not really…
Having been forced to give up solid foods after this San Diego sports weekend, I find myself heading to the airport for South Carolina while the game is being played. Not sure if this is a curse or a blessing.
I believe we win it this afternoon, but, since we have never done anything easily all year, I presume it won’t be easy. Go Pads. Save me from the phone call from my friend from Denver.
Re: 23 Sarcasm
I can’t help but think the playoff experience of the Padres will be a factor today. If we can put up a couple of runs early, then I think the Colorado hitters may start pressing. The one good thing about Peavy pitching on short rest in September is that it resulted in his skipping his start in Colorado, so the Rockies aren’t going to have any park factor tendencies from this season to use for preparation.
Nothing is going to be easy, because our reward for beating Colorado will be a trip to Philly to face the second hottest team in MLB right now.
#25: My bad. I’ve actually had to argue against that line of thought; guess it’s getting to me.
Re: 26 the Rockies know Peavy, they have all seen him plenty of time before. I think Peavy will pitch very well tonight, the key is will the Padres hitters be patient and force Fogg to elevate his pitches or will they all go out there and try to be hero’s (ie nog factor)?
9 re: luxory … playing the Giants and Pirates was a huge luxory, don’t kid yourself!
13 re: Sunday starter … can’t go with Maddux on 3 days rest … gotta go with Cassel (alt is Germano, I s’pose) … and, yes, I know that’s getting ahead … it’s what I do …
2 re: east … where?
8 re: “commitment” … this is a hard subject … we’ve debated this many time … and much more will be said about it (unless/until there’s rings on Padre fingers) … my bottom line is that there are many teams that have “displayed commitment” who haven’t played in the post-season each of the last 3 years … would you really rather have the Padres’ FO act like the Orioles FO or the Cubs FO? I like the course the Padres have set … they are in a position to win and they are in a position to add “the missing link” … in other words, I don’t have any problem with them passing on the FAs from the past couple of years …
GY: Yes there is still hope as long as there’s games to be played. Let’s put Cy Young out there and see what he can do. Peavy has yet to perform well in game 7 type games (my opinion – I’m sure someone will point to something I’ve forgotten). He hasn’t done anything in the post season yet.
Dude has killed the opposition this year in the reg season and has awesome era, win & strikeout totals. I want to see the dominant Jake do it on a big stage tonight. That’s tonight’s side story for me. Peavy doing it when it really matters.
Sack up Padres and don’t flush your season down the drain. Here’s to getting beyond today and achieving a guarantee of at least 3 more games.
29: That’s a good point. Fogg struggles with command, so Wally has GOT to be pounding patience into their heads today.
Also, Marcus and Barrett have the best numbers on the team against Fogg. And these don’t appear to be sample size issues. Given that, do we start either of them?
9-12, etc…. KT is forced to use duct tape and a stapler to build his roster every off-season.
It seems Moores wants to put a winner on the field, because he knows San Diego fans will only support a winner, but he doesn’t want to risk anything to try to win a championship. Now, if the fans are cool with that, and continue to put 2.8 million butts in PETCO park seats, they’ll keep on doing that.
Comment 21 was exactly right. Every year the Padres do some patchwork roster moves, and cross their fingers. We never go into a season saying “bring it on, we’ll kick your butt because we’re that good.” We always say, “hey, get us in the playoffs, and you never know.”
I’m sorry, but just getting into the playoffs is not good enough anymore.
33: If getting into the playoffs isn’t good enough for you, I suggest you poll the fans of the 21 other clubs who didn’t make the playoffs this year.
The arrogance of Padres fans never ceases to amaze me. Does NOBODY remember how bad we were a mere 6 years ago? Really?
The Padres had more wins this year than last year, and played in the BEST division in baseball. We should all be ecstatic that they’re playing where they are today.
Re: 32 I think nog may get the start, but no way barret does.
Re: 33 I think that we only have to sit through one more season of patch work, the farm system looks like it is getting to the point where they will have a solid pool to pull from instead of finding washed up Vets to come in for a year to fill a hole.
34. Great comment, couldn’t agree more.
Also Hoffman threw a great pitch to Gwynn on Saturday a change-up that was just above the ankles – and credit to Tony Jr. he put a good swing on the ball.
…but I’ll take that pitch anytime, and usually Hoffman will win with it.
This is gonna be a busy blog today!!! (sorry GY – “blog” doesn’t do what you have created here justice). Everyone’s at work doing nothing but talking Padres on Ducksnorts. Sweet.
NOT BARRETT!!!. The Curse, remember the curse! Cubs are in after dumping Barrett, that is a stone cold fact.
We’ll see if BB is looking at the stat sheet at all, if he is then there is no way NOG and Barrett shouldn’t be playing, especially with Bard and Blum completely sucking off Fogg. Those are going to be big decisions that could help decide the game.
26 – Let’s hope the Padres’ playoff experience is NOT a factor today! Aren’t they 1-10 in the post-season since making it to the World Series in 1998?!
Re: 34 Just because we are critical of a team does not mean that we do not support them. Are fans happy to have a winning team? of coarse and we show that in ticket and merch sales, but last time I checked the goal of every team was to win the WS and every year 29 sets of fans are disappointed.
The Padres are competing for our entertainment dollar they have to put a competitive team out there or they loose money (see 99-03) so im not going to pat them on the back for that, its their job.
9 & 34: Phantom, repeating that the Padres are in the best division in baseball doesn’t make it so. Best division in the NL, yeah. Most competitive division in MLB, yeah, that works. But, really, any NL team would, IMHO, have been hard pressed to finish as high as third in any AL division this year.
All that said, I’m leaving work early today to see the Padres earn a trip to Philly. And, yeah, you guys are right, that whole plate discipline thing is the key today.
Probably not important given the game this afternoon but BP is also reporting that the Padres are going to be making Andruw Jones a 1 year 15M offer this off season
Re: 40 yeah but that’s only against the Cardinals
Re 33: KT is “forced” to deal with a budget, like pretty much every GM in any non-major market city. The Padres do not bring in as much revenue as the Dodgers or Giants; therefore, they have less money to spend which generally means a smaller team payroll. Moores spends as much out of his own pocket, if not more, than any owner not named Moreno. They appear now to be spending that money wisely on the major league field and appear to be turning it around in terms of the wisdom of their minor league and other player development expenditures.
San Diego fans have supported loser Padres teams to the tune of 2+ million a year in several seasons since 1995. They have supported bad Charger teams. Now that the baseball fans have gotten a taste of continued success, something that has NEVER happened since 1969, we will see if fan friendliness changes and instead the fans become arrogant World Series demanders.
Re: 43 man that makes no since, Jones will get more years and money than that.
34, 36. How is it arrogance to want a World Championship? Seriously. Why is that arrogance?
The team is good, I love watching the games, I went to a bunch this year, but it’s the fourth year in a row the team has finished with between 82 and 89 wins. This team is hovering, not progressing.
As I said, if the majority of the fans are cool with that, then fine. Personally, I’ve been living in SD for 25 years, and I’d like to win the city’s first World Championship (and the AFL title in 1963 doesn’t count).
I’m thinking that next year, the Padres mantra needs to be, “Mission LATE October.”
I’m confused how anyone could say this team hasn’t progressed, you do realize that there is a huge difference between 82-89 wins right?
Additionally when Petco first opened we would have been hard pressed to name 5 guys who might be on the team 5 years into the future. Now we could probably name 10 that says a lot for how the organization has been able to improve as a whole.
I realy dont understand why you all are against people saying that they want the Pads in the WS? Isn’t that the goal? Isn’t that why they are trying to improve? Fans support this team, they will as long as they stay competitive but fans want a world sereies thats the point of rooting for your team, thats the big payoff for sticking with them over all the down years. Its not like if the Padres don’t go to the WS this year no one will care about them next year, we will be disapointed for a week and then start talking about how they can improve thier chances to win next year.
39: I don’t put much stock in head-to-head stats. If barrett and NOG sucked all year, they’re more likely to suck today, IMO
Man, we are fired up for the game already.
I don’t want Barrett starting.
Helton owns Peavy. This is very disconcerting. That lineup 1-6 the Rockies have is tough. I hope the Padres hitters are ready to be patience with Fogg. I sure would like to see NOG start 2B but his hacking ways just suck.
Re: 49 I agree that the team has progressed, but there needs to be a point to the progression and I always thought that point was to win a championship, was I wrong?
Re: 51 with batters you have to put a little stock into head-to-head match ups because the batter may see the ball come out of particular pitches hand really will or the pitchers “stuff” may play really well into the batters strengths.
50: There’s nothing wrong with wanting to win the WS. I, personally, think there IS something wrong if you’re hostile towards the FO just because that goal isn’t accomplished.
Everyone knows, they KNOW, that this team cannot compete financially. Given that, I fail to understand why people get so indignant when we, gasp, don’t spend money.
Seriously, this year, which FO would you have rather had? Ours, or the Dodgers? People can claim that the Dodgers wanted to win the WS because they ponied up stupid money. And that got them a 4th place finish.
If people want to be angry at a SD sports team for not winning it all, be upset at the Chargers. The Chargers can compete (thank you, salary cap) and they HAVE the superstars that we all wish the Padres could get in baseball. Yet, the Chargers have had just as much success as the Padres the past few years. Somehow, though, the Chargers get painted as the franchise that really wants it all, while everyone kicks the Padres when they’re down. Could someone explain this to me?
Steve, I think we all want to win a world series. Probably time to realize that the Padres will NEVER be favored to do so as long as they play in San Diego.
The organization has improved each year in Petco, they still make some mistakes and don’t spend as much as we’d like on the draft but overall things are good.
Nothing much has changed, if the team had went 4-3 on this same road trip in April we’d all have been pretty happy. Peavy should be able to win the game today, if he doesn’t then they don’t deserve to be in anyway.
After that it isn’t like starting Young and Maddux the first 2 games in Philly is going to cause any huge problem. Jake can come back on regular rest for game 3.
A short sidebar about the Chargers: If you want to complain about an owner not spending money check out how far under the cap the Chargers are(about 20M) think that could have brought back Edwards and found a better corner and safety….let alone a real #1 wideout
Didn’t Barrett happen to get a hit off Suppan yesterday? A guy he “owns”? I think those head-to-head numbers are relevant if sample size is decent. I wouldn’t mind seeing NOG start, but I’d rather have Bard.
Re 33:
I wrote an e-mail about another topic, but 2 of my points are relevant here:
6. San Diego played ‘07 about 8mm under the allotted budget – they weren’t being cheap, they just did find the right player to spend the money on
8. For all San Diego’s perceived cheapness, the only players they let walk away in free agency (since Alderson coming board) haven’t done so hot with their new teams (Ramon Hernandez, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Chan Ho Park, etc.)
***
San Diego WILL spend the money on the right players (ie. I will be SHOCKED if the Padres let Jake walk – he’ll won’t be on the wrong side of 30 when he’s a FA – he’s a premium talent at a premium position)…
52:In Fogg’s case I agree with some patience although pitch count will be rather meaningless, since he will go no more than the 5-6 innings he has the last ten games. He has walked 17 batters in the last 34 innings.
34: Phantom, I respectfully disagree.
I have been through ALL the lean years with this team (from the early 70’s on). I’m a lifelong Padre fan. Just ask the players and coaches whether or not it’s ‘good enough’ just to make it to the playoffs? It certainly isn’t for them, and it shouldn’t be for us.
Maybe that is because I expect more and want more than just to ‘be there’ in October. Yes, we’re on the doorstep for the third year in a row. Yes, the NL West is the toughest division around, but just getting in isn’t good enough and should never be. I want a championship for this team and for San Diego. If that makes me and Richard D. arrogant, then so be it.
Re: 55 People like our FO (SA, KT, GF ect…) we all acknowledge that they have done an amazing job. Fans don’t like our owner, JM has shot himself in the foot a number of times by making promises he cannot keep and/or misleading fans. You can argue the semantics about what he did or did not say but you have to admit that he intentionally painted a brighter picture than he ahs delivered.
54: You’re probably right, but I think the effect is either minimal or not accurately represented in those stats…I still think the fact that Bard has a .360 OBP vs. Barretts sub-300 in hundreds of PA’s this year tells me more about what they might do today then their stats vs. Fogg.
Funny to hear all the Baseball Tonight guys picking the Rockies today…guess it doesn’t matter that Fogg sucks
I don’t think anyone is painting the Chargers as wanting it all – they hired Norv Turner for crying out loud.
The Padres’ hands are tied financially, so they have to be smart. From what I hear they have been drafting well (a la the Chargers), and that should pay dividends in the coming years with good players who will be on the team for a while (a la Peavy). In the meantime it’s great to celebrate their successes, but we wouldn’t be fans if we didn’t want more.
in the Getting Ahead Of Ourselves department, is it just me or is this the worst 4th starter situation we’ve had in years? Cassel/Germano making starts in the postseason? Any chance they pull a Jeff Weaver? ugh.
Re: 63 I agree with you on Bard and Barret but its more because Bard is one of the leaders on the team and he is also mr clutch so he needs to be out there tonight, I was more talking about
nog/b(l)um.
Objectively, I’d pick the rockies too, or if I had real money on the game. The h2h favors the rocks, so does their offense. But its baseball and anything can happen, see Sat night.
I can’t blame the pundits for picking the Rockies. Thems got some swagger right now. But the Pads won 7 of the first 12 against them. They can be beaten – 73 times so far.
Eric, we agree on Bard, and I give Marcus the start at 2nd. How good are his stats against Fogg?
62 – don’t forget all those frivolous lawsuits that delayed Petco for several years. I think the added financial burden of those unplanned-for Qualcomm years is just now stating to be relieved. People seem to want to rip Moores for not breaking the bankroll open as soon as Petco opened it’s doors, forgetting that there was/is a cost to those delays.
64 – predictable. Couple thoughts why:
A) Padres are never sexy enough for national pundits to fall all over themselves for (no “hot” young talent, no superstar hitters bopping 50+ dingers, etc);
2) everyone likes to believe in momentum, which is clearly on CO’s side if it matters at all. I tend to think that’s garbage, the most important player in every game is the two SP, and that changes every game so how do you have any momentum at all in baseball if the most important player is never the same game to game?
I wish they’d just go to Johnny Wholestaff whenever that situation arises….they’re going to carry 11 pitchers(because they can’t help themselves) so its not like the guys are going to be taxed with all the off days coming up in the playoff schedule.
Game 1 Wednesday: Maddux(full rest)
Game 2 Thursday: Young(full rest)
Game 3 Saturday: Peavy(full rest)
Game 4 Sunday: Crap….Maddux on 3 or Johnny Wholestaff
Game 5 Tuesday: Young with an extra day
I’d think they use Maddux on 3 and try and get him out of there after 4-5. With the 3 days around that game being 2 days off and a Peavy start the bullpen should be in perfect shape to throw 5+ IP
70: Good points about Moores and about why the Padres aren’t getting any love. Jake also has stopped more losing streaks in baseball than any other pitcher. Tonite would be a great time for him to do so again.
As for Moores lying about committmens, I have yet to see any material proof on this point. People always say, “But he said so!” Really? Where is that? Where and when did he say it?
Moores promised competitiveness, which is what we’ve gotten since being in Petco. Once you make it to the dance, you can do anything.
#47: I don’t think it’s arrogance to want to win the WS. What gets me is the presumption by some that the Padres FO doesn’t have that as their goal.
#64: It’s only funny if they’re wrong.
#66: Er, um, no comment…
Re: 70 even past the Petco stuff, JM was quoted this year as to saying that he wanted “big name” talent on this team during the whole bonds HR thing. We’ve talked about it before, SA should put a gag order on the whole Padres FO (including JM) and they would get them selves in a whole lot less trouble with the fans.
69-NOG and Blum are closer…I wouldn’t mind giving the nod to nog vs fogg for defense
74- wanting something is not the same as promising it
who wouldn’t “want” ARod?
Game 4 of the Phillies series shouldn’t be a huge issue: they can start Maddux on 3 days rest and use the pen for 5+ IP. The 3 days directly around the game would include 2 days off and a Peavy start…so no problem for the pen there
Personally I think the point is to field a team that has a chance to go deep in the playoffs every year. You can’t build a team to win the World Series if you don’t get to the playoffs. How many teams can afford to go all out for the World Series? Boston, NY, Chicago, LA, maybe Atlanta. Barring that kind of revenue, the next best thing is to make smart trades, stay away from bad contracts, build a strong farm system and look for bargains internationally, all of which the Padres are doing.
I think the Padres have as good a chance as Colorado, the Cubs and Cleveland to win it all. They’re never going to be the Yankees or Red Sox but they can be like Oakland or Minnesota, competitive teams most years, with a chance to beat anyone if they get hot. If a Kevin Brown type situation becomes available you can jump on it to put yourself over the top.
People point to the attendance as proof that the Padres are making money but the real money is in TV revenue. Getting that kind of money requires a huge and passionate fan base, something that just isn’t going to happen here, no matter how many games the Padres win.
77- I like that thinking. I kinda doubt they’ll do that, so I still worry
Re: 76 thats my point about semantics, you can debate the meaning of what he has said all you want but his point was to give fans the impresion that the pads were going to look to sign a big name in the offseason.
Its the same he did to get petco, yes you can not point to one smoking gun quote from JM but the padres gave fans the impresion that they would have big name tallent on the roster and be competivie every year. You can debate weather limping into the playoffs for 3 straight years is being competivie or not (I think it is) but some may not see it that way.
TV money has little if anything to do with a rabid fan base and everything to do with a large number of humans living in your “local” broadcast area
Re: 78 or making poor long term deals with rink-a-dink local cable stations who will not put the games on satilite.
It aslo has to do with SD having alot of transpolants who follow the cubs/yankees/mets/dodgers ect… SD is still a new large city, most people (30+) who liver here were not born here.
I want the Padres’ organization (owner, FO, players, fans) to want to win a WS … in fact, I believe they/we all do …
82 – rink-a-dink? COX is all over the country…
re 83: Actually that has absolutely nothing to do with how a team gets paid for tv revenue. They charge a fee per person or per household. If I remember correctly it works out to something like $2.50 per customer for the cable company. Cox probably has something along the lines of 3M people locally for the Padres where the Red Sox are looking at, at least 20M people considered local for them.
We didn’t win in the playoffs last year because Moneyball teams can’t hit in the clutch in October. Duh!
Steve, fair posts, but I don’t think the Pads limped into the playoffs last year, even if it was a 88-74 team. Didn’t “we” go something like 20-9 in September?
I think the points being made can be made without labeling passionate and respectful padres fans here “arrogant.” I also think it’s quite possible to be ecstatic of what you’ve got here in SD, but desirous of more.
The FO clearly does all it can to do as well as it can, and it’s success clearly makes it one of the best in baseball. However, there’s nothing wrong with wishing that the owner would be as passionate as winning as some Padres fans are. I think there are many of us that if in JM’s position would be willing to make less money or even lose some for an increased chance of success. And based on what the FO has done with this much money, I can’t help but salivate over the thought of what they could do with more.
I am optimistic about today, I am optimistic about the future, and I love being a Padres fan right now. And as good an owner as JM may arguably be, I can’t help but wish he was a little bit better.
Re: 85 I meant Ch4 not cox itself
How many PAs needed before BVP stats are predictive? I’m going to guess it’s pretty high. And, I’m also going to venture a guess that except at the extremes (many PAs and ungodly bad or good numbers), BVP should be largely ignored.
For example, Peavy vs Helton. Career OPS of 1080. Looks pretty good for Helton, right? Against Jake, Helton is even above his career OPS (1014).
But slice it up a bit:
Thru 2005: Helton OPS vs Jake = 1225
2006-07 = 788
And isn’t this what we’d expect? Helton in his prime dominated the kid pitcher. But as Helton ages, and Jake comes into his prime, things shift.
So, at the very least, I’d be very skeptical of making lineup decisions on BVP numbers without scrutinizing them closely.
re 82-83: At the time the Cox deal was made, it was better for the team than any the Padres had ever made. Arguably, Cox paid too much for the rights. The only way the Padres can do better is to get a regional sports network to pick them up or to start one of their own – which leads to the fundamental problem.
San Diego is a SMALL media market. It doesn’t have the potential reach that LA or SF has. It is blocked by LA/OC to the north; the ocean to the west, no man’s land to the east, and Mexico to the south. Mexico, like other foreign countries without teams, is MLB’s property in terms of most revenue, not the Padres’.
I hope the Padres can get an RSN started for their next contract, to pick up satellite and cable viewers and bring in more revenue, but it may not be easy.
Also, it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting. I want a lot of things I am not likely to get, and I can’t really make serious promises about them. The Padres may want an expensive prime free agent or ten, but they are never likely to get them, and it is foolish for a fan to translate a “want” or even a “need” into a “promise”. It is best to listen with your head and not with your heart in such situations.
Re: 87 I was looking more at 05 and 07, but they did not wrap up the Div until game 162 last year, so its not like they were a dominate force in what was a weaker NL west last year.
Re: 3/4…I am now living in Portsmouth, Virginia…sorta like Coronado (small town, on the water, things to walk to, view of downtown), but not really. I am just trying to make myself feel better or something…
Re: 91
“it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting.”
When the guy who writes checks for the team says it, it is semantics.
Geoff, r we going to break the non-IGD comment record today? Nearly 100 before noon…
93. I live to the north in DC, but that is a beautiful area, especially when you go to the Virginia side of the Delmarva penisula..but its not Coronado
Well it’ll cost them 100-200M to start their own tv channel so I wouldn’t count on that happening any time soon
Re: 94 I’m fine with the Pads not going out and signing a big name guy, I really like the way they are heading and I think they will continue to be successful for a long time, but my point is that people are going to jump on JM because he has mislead fans weather its with a single quote or not he has. The average fan does not sit at their computer everyday and dissect the operations of the FO and follow the farm system. The average fan reads the sports page every morning and listens to 1090, so you have to understand why they would hear what JM has said and feel mislead.
88: Hey, JM and family were at Miller Park!
I’m leaving the serious JM stuff to more eloquent others, but I’ve been disappointed in some of the drafting, most recently the Schmidt pick, mainly based on what TW and even Keith Law said about him (pitchability over stuff), plus the Hardball Times writer about his mechanics.
Unfortunately, we don’t really know if he’d sign off on a Kevin Brown-type deal because we haven’t had the chips to get a guy like that.
There is certainly some well deserved frustration over the draft and very specifically their current refusal to deal with Boras at any level.
Two styles of play:
Padres scratch out some runs and hold on with good pitching and bullypen
Rockies consede some runs with decent pitching and hope to out hit the other guy.
Key to the game is to stay away from the big inning, the 4 run inning, the classic Rocky Rally. Problem is the Rockies hit for avg so there will be runners on base, that is when JP needs to bear down.
Looking at Rocks sept wins, its looks like they either blow you out or loose.
More re: BVP… Barrett’s numbers against Fogg are almost entirely the product of 13 PAs in 2004 when he hit Fogg to the tune of a 2100+ OPS. Impressive, but does it have any predictive value for 2007?
Cox has TBS HD active on Channel 733; it may not be listed in the program guide yet. Unfortunately I live in a Time Warner area and it doesn’t sound like they’ll have TBS HD running in time for the game.
93 – P-Town!! Frequent poster Marsh and I grew up in VA Beach (we moved there from SD), and spent a lot of time in good ‘ol P-Town. It ain’t SD, but as you’ll realize, nowhere really is. Portsmouth is not anywhere near as bad as some destinations you could have ended up in.
Also how long did it get JM to build an academy in the DR? There has been a ton of talent passed up by the Pads because until SA came to SD Mores was to cheap to invest 2 mil in what has been a very lucrative market for other teams.
105: Good point. Which is why I have to disagree with the agrument that JM is a great owner.
Batter vs pitcher matcups are basically worthless … not because certain batters won’t fair well against certain pitchers, but because the sample is almost always too small to gain any real insight from it.
Someone could be .400/.500/.700 against a pitcher in 40 PA’s. It could be luck/randomness or it could be somewhat real. The goal is to find whether or not it’s real. The simple rate stats (or any regular stats for that matter) don’t help you in that area.
Ugh, if this is going to disintegrate into another “Moore$ is a crook” thread, I think I’ll pass.
To anyone who was offended by my label of arrogant: I think its completely arrogant to be down on this team because they haven’t won a WS before. They’ve enjoyed amazing success since coming to Petco. Do I want them to win a WS? Hell yes. Am I going to sit here are rip the team, the front office, and the owner if they fail to accomplish this? No way in hell. I was a Padres fan during some awfully lean years when TG was the only reason to go the park. What I consider arrogant is this notion that Padres fans are somehow entitled to a WS win just becuase Petco was opened. Our franchise has significantly turned it around since ‘04, and the guys in the farm portend more improvement in the years to come.
As I said earlier, if you want to be pissed off and demand a championship, turn that ire to the Chargers. They HAVE the big-name players that the Padres cannot hope to acquire. Yet, their FO’s ego has decimated the team this year.
96: Delmarva Peninsula. Isn’t that where the Braves’ Myrtle Beach minor leaguers play? That’s a nice area to watch baseball. I think NOG used to rack it there.
93: I’m sorry that you had to moved out of Coronado. Hope you get to catch the game today.
90,102: I know why I don’t like Barrett starting. Nice analysis, man. I’m feeling better about Jake vs. Helton today.
Just a quick Chargers note, I gave up the season as soon as they hired Norv Turner as the head coach. Still, I’m disappointed he’s not proven me wrong.
Emotionally:
Rocks are on a great run 13-1 to get here. Fans will be crazy, batters are confident. They are rolling much like the Phillies.
Padres have stuggled all year, but unlike the Mets, managed to rally after last week’s problems. They have been on the road for a long time to SF, Mil, and now Co, and are tired no doubt. But they seem to rally from the brink, step up with thier back against the wall.
You have to give the emotional edge to the rockies, but the Padres have the playoff experience not to get too tight and they have battled all year. Wish we had camy in center.
The Padres’ inability to develop solid or better regulars (and keep them here) bothers me far more than the lack of FA splashes.
We kinda did this with the Taguchi(?) and Luis Castillo midseason trades, but is there any FA, based on his 07 performance, that we should have paid for? DeRosa in Chicago? Lilly was pretty solid but he still has 3 or 4 more seasons. That’s the problem. Even if Pierre hit .330/.380/.420, getting even more steals, the Dodgers still have four long years of him.
I find it funny that the U-T has brought up Vladimir Guerrero’s name a few times of late – his desire to come here. I missed that and always thought it was a padres.com forum myth.
Just to relieve the tension around here, a funny read for us all:
http://tinyurl.com/2t3dms
LM: congrats on your win in the fantasy league.
Thanks Clayton…I think it seems like a pretty cool place. I plan on being back to SD sometime in the future, but for now I get to watch the sunrise over the ocean as opposed to the sunset…
The suckiest part is that Padres home games start at 10pm…I will avoid the news each morning and just watch the replay before the West Coast wakes up.
In the meantime, I will be heading over to a sports bar tonight to watch the game. Gotta think we have the edge here with Peavy going, but as hot as the Rockies have been, coupled with the Padres seeming inability to hit bad pitching, it should be interesting…
Oh yea, a word of warning to any/all of you heading out of SD…never wear your “Who’s Your Padre” shirt. It confuses many and makes a lot of others want to fight you.
Re: 108 People cant be critical of the team? Unless a team wins the WS then there is room for improvement. Part of fun of being a fan is discussing what you think the team can do to get better, the fact that we are going to have well over 200 posts today shows the support that people have for this team, if we did not think the Pads were doing a good job we would not waste our time (or companies time for most of us) sitting here talking about one of our passions.
People have issues with Mores get over it, it not going to change. Most fans have issues with their owners it comes with the territory of owning a team. Fans will always think they should spend more on the team, it may not always be right but its just how things go.
you want a bad fricking owner, try Tom Warner (famous fire sale, and Roseann Bar incident). Moores is good, count your blassings.
Re; 116 like I said JM would be seen as alot better owner if he was barred from talking to the Media.
I think people would be a lot more understanding of Moores if he talked more, they tried to have Alderson be the face of the franchise publically but Moores is a much, much more likeable guy then Alderson.
Moores does hate to talk to the media though(for good reason) so it is probably a necessity to have a strong CEO around.
115: I take no issue with honest criticism of the team. I take issue with the sense of entitlement that many “casual” fans about winning a WS, just because we opened a new stadium.
Of course we all love the team, that’s why we come here to debate. But I get irked by the constant calls for Moores’ head. It seems like some people would prefer it if we were as horrible as some believe us to be, just so that their hatred for him could be vindicated.
And I don’t have to get over a damn thing. Until someone brings up a credible argument, with proof, about how Moores is continually screwing the team and the fan base, I refuse to accept the blanket assertions that he is a bad owner.
For example if Moores explained how the made zero money on about 85% of the ballpark land(a development company, by law cannot profit on the purchase and subsequent resale of land in a project like the ballpark district)
He has made a ton off of the Omni and others, but all those condos around the park don’t help him at all, other then helping the valuation of the properties JMI does own in the area
113: Thanks, Didi, that link is LOL funny.
Player profile on Josh Fogg from Mr. Normandin …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6775
Need a BP subscription … I figured some of you may be interested, although I haven’t even read it myself yet.
118: A lot of this feels like ground already covered, but we’ll really never know until the Padres make public audited books, how much Moores has spent from his personal accts over the years and what the debt service obligations means for diverting cash flow from the payroll.
re 123: the ballpark funds are very public through the ccdc. I think we’re all aware that the baseball team’s finances are not public.
Leave it to ESPN.com to diss the Padres’ chances:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=3044170
The headline on the ESPN front page reads: “Is Peavy Ripe for Picking?” Makes it sound like Josh Fogg and not Jake is the best pitcher in the NL this year. Don’t care what the national media thinks about this game (honest), but I can’t think of another pitcher I want out there with the season on the line.
Re: 123 true I don’t think the Moores supporters will be able to convince the non-supporters and vice versa.
I am sad. We had the chance to win the division outright if we had beat the Brewers in two very winnable games.
Then we had the chance to win the wildcard outright by winning just one of those games.
I fear that our pitching is tiring, and that our hitters are not being very selective. As I’ve said, when your strength is pitching against a team whose strength is not pitching, the best strategy is to drive up the other team’s pitch count.
Holliday will be motivated to take over the NL RBI lead in an attempt to boost his argument for MVP, though I think that Jimmy Rollins has it all sewn up. That guy is frickin’ amazing. He’ll have a huge payday when FA comes.
I love our team, and if Cameron OR Bradley were healthy, I think we’d have a good enough lineup to throw out there to go along with our pitching. But for us to compete now, we’re going to need a little luck, or else our guys are going to have to hit over their heads…
Bip
Mark: Bad post. I should have thought that one through more. Yes, I do know that the baseball team’s finances are not public. I’m saying it’s difficult to make an informed judgment about Moores’ commitment to payroll and player development when we don’t know how much money (or not) the team is making. Or am I missing something?
As you probably know, SA said on 1090 that Moores injected millions (capital call, is it?) this season. The vocal distrusting fans are always yammering about Moores’ earnings off redevelopment but they – none of us – have all the information necessary to say stingy investor or not. Do we?
Re 125: I love the line “Except perhaps for the Peavy factor, Colorado can make the case that it’s got the Padres right where it wants them.”
That is like saying…except for the last place finish, the San Francisco Giants have the NL West right where they want them.
I think we can definitely place a value on the whole ballpark redvelopment to Moores pocketbook, but we’ll never be able to agree on what % of that money should be put back into the team.
To venture a guess: He’s taken out about 50M cash from projects and has made another 300-400M in value added to properties he already owns through JMI. This will only increase as everything is completed.
Oops, Christmas 07 is in danger:
http://ironictimes.com/
Another funnies.
113 … ya, nice link, Didi … and don’t forget that the fantasy league ain’t over until this evening’s final pitch!
Or like saying, except for the fact that he generally struggles in big games, Peavy is a great big game pitcher.
Let’s hope Peavy and his coaches are figuring out a game plan that will help prevent another October meltdown. He’s another year older and wiser, and his one-strikeout performance last time out gives me hope, too.
And let’s hope the rest of team remembers that no one is paying them to watch Peavy pitch – go out there and score some runs!!
The key to tonite’s game is to get an early lead and never trail. If it comes down to an even game with a few innings left, I’m not necessarily fond of our chances. Colorado can mash, period. The Padres, not so much.
Ideally, we could put up 2 – 4 runs in the first two innings, while Jake keeps the Rockies quiet. From here, psychology starts taking hold, and the Rox hitters maybe start making Jake’s job a little easier.
The key for the Padres offense tonite is going to be patience. They’ve got to be willing to take walks and pitches tonite. Fogg will give us free passes, we just have to be willing to accept them.
OK, this “heart” thing has got to stop:
James (Phoenix, AZ): buster, you don’t know the DBacks, you havn’t watched them all year. No team in baseball plays with more heart.
That has replaced “my team gets no respect” as the most annoying bleeding-heart fan cliche. Hey, James, your team was outscored this season. Feel fortunate the Dbacks are even in the thing.
Buster Olney’s response: James: Saw this before I signed off. You’re right, the D-Backs have been playing in a vacuum, and nobody has noticed them at all. FYI, in March, I picked them to win the division.
A free article at BP today … “Padres versus Rockies” …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6776
… I haven’t read it all, but I like the way it starts …
Jake Peavy’s not just the league’s best starter, he’s baseball’s best starter, by a lot.
As an FYI, to get the 1090 version of the broadcast for tonite’s game on XM, listen to 184. The 183 that GY listed is the Rox broadcast. Optionally, the ESPN (or Fox Sports) radio broadcast is 185.
We should start offering a $20 reward for any national writer who predicts a Padres win, with the best pitcher in baseball on the hill.
This should get us ready for the Phillies series in which I’m sure everyone is going to be predicting a Phillies sweep-a-rino to borrow a phrase from Philly Billy.
I have the game plan for tonight… anyone who saw Marc Normandin’s BP column today:
“His strikeout rates are as low as ever, and he still gives up a lot of homers on a lot of flyballs; more than half of his balls in play go to the outfield, and almost half of the time that the ball goes to the outfield, it’s a hit.”
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6775
so put the ball in the air.. and the offense will get better
Re: 138 It makes it even sweeter when the padres win and make all the national guys ::cough:: keith law ::cough:: look like over payed idiots
Do the Padres only get 25 men tonight or do they still get 40?
40…although I think that might be a disadvantage given the Rockies rather liberal use of their bullpen
Anyone else nervous yet? And it’s still 3 and a half hours to gametime.
Man…..Too Much Show on 1090 takes a topic that’s worth about 3 minutes of debate and stretches it out for 2 hours. Every show, every day.
On Friday the Rockies had won 11 in a row. The D-Backs had just lost two of three against the Pirates. The D-Backs had a worse lineup than us, and Jeff Francis, the Rockies’ best pitcher, was pitching against them. But Brandon Webb was on the mound for the D-Backs, and they won 4-2. All that momentum stuff is really overrated when you have the best pitcher in the league going for you.
Re: 143 Yes
144: To start Peavy or not? I can’t listen today.
Reading comments on the U-T stories is “fun.”
145 … BINGO!
All Systems are GO!!!
Is it 100% that if we win Tomko or Clark cannot be included on the playoff roster? I hear that is the case but then people also speak of an injury replacement. If neither those guys (or Lane I guess) are eligible we’d be fielding a mighty strange 25 guys I think. Probably including most of Cassel, Germano, KCameron, Stansberry, Sledge and Robles.
Also, since today is 10/1, does that mean “Mission October” is a success???
143: why do you think I’ve posting funnies the last two times?
here’s another: http://tinyurl.com/6yycu
Brady Clark can be included on the roster because he was in the organization before Aug 31st….Tomko cannot
147 Stephen: No…..just talking about the failure this weekend in general. But Darren just repeats what he said 5 minutes ago over and over and elaborates to no end.
any confirmation on the lack of mlb.tv tonight? How does one find out?
1090 says blum getting start today.
The preview of tonight’s game at BPro invokes the name of Sterling Hitchcock. Peavy’s got to channel Hitchcock tonight.
Hitchcock in the ‘98 playoffs:
22 IP, 3 ER, 32 K’s
No Barrett!!
156: Bummer. I’d rather have the superior D behind Jake.
144: I’ll tell you what… And this here is important. What – we’ve – got – here – is – a – classic – case – of – Philly – Billy-ism…
You’ve got to look at things like this.. Mmm-K? Now… It’s like I always say…
Geoff, am I flagged?
Wow, took a while to get through those comments. A couple of thoughts:
(1) Jonathan Mariner, the CFO of Major League Baseball, has a dayplanner with every team’s three year financial projections. It has their projected balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows for a 3 year horizon and (here’s the trick that is new since Mariner took over) they have to actually roll up together. So, when I heard that (from Mariner himself), my first thought was: Holy Shit, I’d love to get a hold of the Padres projections, then I would truly know what kind of money they were willing to spend! (project player contracts = salary expenses — note: you cannot value player contracts as assets and depreciate them, though I heartily disagree with tax law in that regard). Anywho, just food for thought…. the Padres have already established (with leeway I’m sure) what they are willing to spend over the next few years and have had to make that work financially, covering their expenses (cash outflows) with anticipated revenues and/or debt (cash inflows), in order to project positive results into the future. And, it should be noted that only one team actually “lost money” according to MLB financial records last year (as opposed to nearly every team some 5 years ago).
(2) Being a SD fan on the east coast sucks. First, you have to watch games at wierd hours; and second, you have to constantly answer questions from locals about why you are a fan. Sometimes, it can get pretty tiring to stick up for the team (note: I’m in the heart of Redsox and Patriots nation) all the time, but the last few years, save a few notable exceptions (like this year with the chargers), it has gotten much easier. No longer do I have to put up with comments like “Padres?!?! Why do you like them?!? THEY SUCK!!”.. So, I’ll give the current upper management this much credit: They’ve made it a lot easier to be a Padres fan.
#95: Possibly, though we’ve got a ways to go; we hit 246 last Thursday, and I’m not sure that’s the record.
#113: Thanks for the funny, Didi!
#126: Yep, it’s pretty much a religious debate.
#150: Moreso than the Mets’ mission.
#160: Spam filter is on overdrive; sorry, bud.
Ack, too much to do. Carry on…
159 Less: Awesome!!
Starting Blum is defensible in the current situation. Starting Barrett would not be.
Maybe BB should bat Peavy 7th or 8th?
Well best case scenario padres score 10 runs in the first and the Pads pitch Pewavy 1 inning while Cassel warms up, Peavy pitches on Weds. (a guy can dream cant he)
165: Yeah, but then we’d give up 10 runs in the 2nd. =)
165: If they score 10 in the first, they should scratch Peavy, let Cassel start in the bottom of the first, and keep Peavy ready for if the lead shrinks.
165: In all seriousness, I think it would have to be a 20 run lead that early for me to consider pulling Peavy. I know that sounds ridiculous, but there is no room for error on this one, and, I’m pretty sure Cassel could give up 15 runs to the Rox at Coors Field.
This gets a chuckle out of me:
http://www.thebrushback.com/cubs_full.htm
NY Times has analyst’s post-season picks.
http://tinyurl.com/2769qf
Check these folks:
Don Orsillo (play-by-play)
NL CHAMPION: Padres
Joe Simpson (analyst)
NL CHAMPION: Padres
Cal Ripken (studio analyst)
NL CHAMPION: Padres
David Aldridge (reporter)
NL CHAMPION: Padres
“The key to tonite’s game is to get an early lead and never trail.”
It’s this kind of analysis which keeps me coming back.
170 … grrrr …
Tony Gwynn (analyst)
AL CHAMPION: Yankees
NL CHAMPION: Phillies
WORLD SERIES CHAMPION: Yankees
… perhaps that TG Jr?
T – 1-hour … and counting … I’m *READY*!!!!
161 (2) – agreed wholeheartedly. I have a legit story about how as a youngster I was a Yankee fan (gross, I know) until my favorite players Nettles and Gossage became Padres. But most of the time people are then like, who?
The 10PM gametimes suck for me, and even more the complete lack of TV coverage is the worst.
NOG and Barrett both made this distinguished list:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/09/the_allnincompo.php
My condolences to Pads fans. I was rooting for ‘em and hoping for a Cubs/Padres LCS; thinking back to ‘84. I think bad karma must have finally caught up with Barrett — I could be way off base here but, perhaps he was bannished from Cubdom for having a bad attitude. By the way, saw a replay on ESPN this morning of the play at home plate. Looks like Holliday may not have touched the plate!