Where There’s a Game, There’s Hope
Mon, Oct 1, 2007
by Geoff Young
From October 1, 2004:
Well, it’s October and technically the Padres still aren’t out of the race. Or, if you’re reading this later in the day, maybe they are.
The Pads have already won 22 more games than they did all last year (and they still have three more to go against the worst team in baseball), and they’re the only NL team that had a losing record in 2003 that managed to push themselves above .500 in 2004. They’ve surpassed my preseason prediction of 84 wins (which I actually worried might be overly optimistic). The Padres will end up within shouting distance of the 800 runs forecast by GM Kevin Towers despite getting virtually no production from the key free agent acquisition (Jay Payton) and a whopping nine homers from Ryan Klesko.
The Padres scrapped and battled, and slowly began to believe they could win. Fan support was tremendous, eclipsing the 3 million mark for the first time in club history on the final day. But for all the positives, we are left frustrated and disappointed by a season that could have been so much more. In what looks to be their fifth best season in 35 years of existence, the Padres repeatedly failed to execute in key situations (how often can a team have two runners on base with nobody out and not score?). They made questionable roster decisions (Eddie Oropesa, Jason Szuminski, Kerry Robinson, the #5 starter revolving door, failure to acquire any names bigger than Rich Aurilia and Dave Hansen for the stretch run) and fielded a squad that collectively wasn’t well suited for their new ballpark and who individually seemed all too aware of and frustrated by that fact.
I should be happy, and for the most part I am. This truly has been a great season of Padres baseball, and Petco Park takes advantage of what San Diego has to offer in ways that the Q never could. Every time I step into the ballpark and look out onto the skyline, I am reminded of how blessed I am to call this city — for whatever faults it may have — my home. Corny as it sounds, I do take pride in Petco and the way it shows off our city. And this year, unlike in years past, I have been able to take pride in the Padres as well. Even when they’ve struggled to execute or blamed the new park for their problems, I’ve never doubted their desire to win. That’s not something I’ve always been able to say about some of the recent editions. Then again, it’s hard to get too worked up about these things when you’re routinely losing 90+ games a year.
On the one hand, I find it irritating beyond words that the Padres haven’t been able to wrap up a playoff spot and must visit Coors Field to play one game (or flip a coin, if you prefer) against the hottest team in baseball. On the other, I’m grateful that the Padres are committed to fielding a competitive ballclub, and that they at least have given themselves a chance to make a third straight postseason appearance.
Monday’s game starts at 4:37 p.m. PT, and will be broadcast on TBS and XM 183 [update: the Padres feed can be found on XM 184; hat tip to Phantom in the comments]. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Luck permitting, it won’t be our last…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 1, 2007 at 7:19 am
Agree that its nice to be 1 of 9 teams to play game 163+, and we should thank KT, SA, and JM. Met fan and Brewer fan are really hurting. That being said….well, not gonna think about it. One game, we’ll see who wins….its that simple.
October 1, 2007 at 7:49 am
Anyone know if the game will be on MLB.tv? I have officially moved East and do not have cable yet…don’t think I want to hit a sports bar my first night in town…still have to unpack my clothes or something…
October 1, 2007 at 7:58 am
I think its only on TBS, so you may have to hit a sports bar….moving to the east from Coronado, that is brutal….I thought moving from Poway was bad
October 1, 2007 at 8:00 am
Where did you move mike?
October 1, 2007 at 8:01 am
Also if the Padres play like they did last night you may want to be at a bar anyways.
October 1, 2007 at 8:08 am
Ugh, what a **** sandwich of a weekend for SD sports in total - for the 2nd straight weekend!
If you’ve got DirecTV, like I do, you’re all set w/ TBS HD (channel 75 or 76 I believe).
As bad as not winning one of those 2 games is, I’m very happy not to be a Met fan, Brewer fan, or, for that matter, a Giant, Dodger, Astro, Nationals, etc, fan.
Peavy on full rest, Bell and Hoffman with a night off. Can’t complain about the set up, though Coors does funky things to pitchers. The script would be 7 from Jake, 1 each from Heath and Trevor and head to Philly.
October 1, 2007 at 8:14 am
Most encouraging line is Josh Fogg who will be starting tonight for the Rockies has a 6.28 ERA against San Diego this year with the Padres hitting .369 against him.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....yerId=4753
He’s pitched better since the break, but he still walks a lot of guys and you can hit against him. The key is the Padres better get to him early because the Rockies bullpen is tough
October 1, 2007 at 8:31 am
I have to disagree with Geoff to a degree. He said he’s grateful ownership has shown a commitment to winning. But, at what point do we wonder about ownership’s commitment to winning? There’s a world of difference between “contending” and winning championships.
Remember the off-season between 97 and 98?
The team went out and made a huge splash, picking up Kevin Brown in a move that shouted “we want to win the World Series.”
They simply have not done that since.
I love the Padres, and I trust John Moores and Kevin Towers, but at some point I’m going to start to think Moores is happy with contending, and drawing 2.8 million fans, but not taking the next step.
October 1, 2007 at 8:37 am
8: Um, we have more wins this year than we did last year. We are competing in the best division in baseball. I’m totally fine with playing a play-in game today. We’ve had some awful luck at times over the past 162 games that could have made the difference between us not needing to play this game today.
The scheduling the past two weeks for the Padres and the Rockies also had a profound impact. This is not an excuse, but the Rockies got to play teams that rolled over for them. The Padres didn’t quite have that luxury.
We’ve got Jake on the mound, and we’ve got Coors field. We should win this thing. I’ll be cheering and keeping track of the game as best as I can, but my class starts at 6, which really, really, really blows. With any luck, by the time 6 0′clock rolls around, Fogg will be out of the game and we’ll be up by more than four runs.
Keep the faith! Experience it! Mission October!
October 1, 2007 at 8:37 am
There was one big difference between Brown and a lot of the FA’s who might have been fits in San Diego since then….contract length. I’m certain that if they could deal Antonelli for 1 year of Johan Santana they’d do it in a second…those types of deals aren’t as easy anymore.
October 1, 2007 at 8:38 am
The Brewers are celebrating their first winning season in 15 years. 15 years of games after July meaning essentially nothing. How’s that for putting things in perspective? As a Padres’ fan, I’m just thankful to be watching games that count every September.
Khalil is gonna hit two dingers today and we’ll head to Philly!
October 1, 2007 at 8:39 am
#8: What is the difference between contending and wanting to win the World Series? This sounds like a flip question, but I’m serious. Seems to me that if you get into the playoffs, you’ve got a chance. See, e.g., ‘87 Twins, ‘97 Marlins, ‘03 Marlins, ‘06 Cardinals…
October 1, 2007 at 8:43 am
after the Padres win tonight (trying to stay positive) how does thier rotation set up for the playoffs?
Weds: Maddux
Thurs: Young
Sat: Peavy
Sun: Maddux
Tue: Young
October 1, 2007 at 8:46 am
Re 8: The Brown move screamed “We really want the people to vote yes on a ballpark” more than anything. The Padres were a very good team in 1996, had some rough luck in 1997, and were set to bounce back in 1998, and Brown definitely solidified things and helped push them over the top from an underdog position, vis-a-vis the powerhouse Astros and Braves. Moores was willing to lose money to bring back the fans and get the new ballpark, but he wasn’t willing to do it ad infinitum. That is why a new ballpark was so important to him, to make the team more self-sustaining.
He got that, and the fans so far have got four straight years of competitive, playoff-contending or playoff-making baseball. Seems like a pretty good bargain.
Go Peavy! Go Padres!
October 1, 2007 at 8:47 am
Re 12: Obviously, you have to win the World Series or be favored to win it going in to really “want” it. Everything else is smoke and mirrors, bait and switch.
October 1, 2007 at 8:48 am
I’m still pretty amazed that we are still in this position to get into the playoffs today after last weekend. When we lost Cammy and Milton I completely wrote off the Padres chances to make the playoffs at all. The fact that the Rockies have not played MLB caliber teams the past couple of series may help us also. I fully expect Jake to come out blazing today and although I may have felt differently yesterday I am so glad he is pitching today. Come on Win # 20!!!
October 1, 2007 at 8:54 am
9: The only thing I’d disagree with you is that the Rockies totally beat the Padres at home for that series and had the Padres won one of those games, no game today. Still, you are right that the Dodgers suck and so was the Snakes in the last two games.
Still, I’m glad the Padres are playing a game today.
Go Padres! Beat the Rockies.
October 1, 2007 at 8:54 am
16: I fully agree about giving up when Cameron and Bradley went down. A week ago, I looked like I had been slugged in teh gut. I’m still happy to be in the race.
October 1, 2007 at 8:54 am
If the Padres lose today, then my new mantra over the winter will probably be “Anthony ‘Freaking’ Gwynn”.
October 1, 2007 at 8:55 am
Why do I feel so pessemistic about this game? Because the rockies have our number, that least at Petco. Maybe we play them better at coors. Jake will keep them in check, but we need the lead into the 7 inning, we simply can’t come from behind. Man, the rockies hit well.
October 1, 2007 at 8:56 am
8: i tend to agree with you. I think there is a difference between hoping to contend and wanting to win. KT does a great job with the money he has to work with. I just dont think JM is willing to take the next step to make this team a real threat to win it all from game 1.
October 1, 2007 at 8:57 am
Re: 19 Makes you wish that KT would have held out for TGjr in the Linebrink deal
October 1, 2007 at 8:59 am
#22: But not really…
October 1, 2007 at 9:01 am
Having been forced to give up solid foods after this San Diego sports weekend, I find myself heading to the airport for South Carolina while the game is being played. Not sure if this is a curse or a blessing.
I believe we win it this afternoon, but, since we have never done anything easily all year, I presume it won’t be easy. Go Pads. Save me from the phone call from my friend from Denver.
October 1, 2007 at 9:02 am
Re: 23 Sarcasm
October 1, 2007 at 9:02 am
I can’t help but think the playoff experience of the Padres will be a factor today. If we can put up a couple of runs early, then I think the Colorado hitters may start pressing. The one good thing about Peavy pitching on short rest in September is that it resulted in his skipping his start in Colorado, so the Rockies aren’t going to have any park factor tendencies from this season to use for preparation.
October 1, 2007 at 9:05 am
Nothing is going to be easy, because our reward for beating Colorado will be a trip to Philly to face the second hottest team in MLB right now.
October 1, 2007 at 9:05 am
#25: My bad. I’ve actually had to argue against that line of thought; guess it’s getting to me.
October 1, 2007 at 9:06 am
Re: 26 the Rockies know Peavy, they have all seen him plenty of time before. I think Peavy will pitch very well tonight, the key is will the Padres hitters be patient and force Fogg to elevate his pitches or will they all go out there and try to be hero’s (ie nog factor)?
October 1, 2007 at 9:07 am
9 re: luxory … playing the Giants and Pirates was a huge luxory, don’t kid yourself!
13 re: Sunday starter … can’t go with Maddux on 3 days rest … gotta go with Cassel (alt is Germano, I s’pose) … and, yes, I know that’s getting ahead … it’s what I do …
2 re: east … where?
8 re: “commitment” … this is a hard subject … we’ve debated this many time … and much more will be said about it (unless/until there’s rings on Padre fingers) … my bottom line is that there are many teams that have “displayed commitment” who haven’t played in the post-season each of the last 3 years … would you really rather have the Padres’ FO act like the Orioles FO or the Cubs FO? I like the course the Padres have set … they are in a position to win and they are in a position to add “the missing link” … in other words, I don’t have any problem with them passing on the FAs from the past couple of years …
October 1, 2007 at 9:08 am
GY: Yes there is still hope as long as there’s games to be played. Let’s put Cy Young out there and see what he can do. Peavy has yet to perform well in game 7 type games (my opinion - I’m sure someone will point to something I’ve forgotten). He hasn’t done anything in the post season yet.
Dude has killed the opposition this year in the reg season and has awesome era, win & strikeout totals. I want to see the dominant Jake do it on a big stage tonight. That’s tonight’s side story for me. Peavy doing it when it really matters.
Sack up Padres and don’t flush your season down the drain. Here’s to getting beyond today and achieving a guarantee of at least 3 more games.
October 1, 2007 at 9:08 am
29: That’s a good point. Fogg struggles with command, so Wally has GOT to be pounding patience into their heads today.
Also, Marcus and Barrett have the best numbers on the team against Fogg. And these don’t appear to be sample size issues. Given that, do we start either of them?
October 1, 2007 at 9:08 am
9-12, etc…. KT is forced to use duct tape and a stapler to build his roster every off-season.
It seems Moores wants to put a winner on the field, because he knows San Diego fans will only support a winner, but he doesn’t want to risk anything to try to win a championship. Now, if the fans are cool with that, and continue to put 2.8 million butts in PETCO park seats, they’ll keep on doing that.
Comment 21 was exactly right. Every year the Padres do some patchwork roster moves, and cross their fingers. We never go into a season saying “bring it on, we’ll kick your butt because we’re that good.” We always say, “hey, get us in the playoffs, and you never know.”
I’m sorry, but just getting into the playoffs is not good enough anymore.
October 1, 2007 at 9:11 am
33: If getting into the playoffs isn’t good enough for you, I suggest you poll the fans of the 21 other clubs who didn’t make the playoffs this year.
The arrogance of Padres fans never ceases to amaze me. Does NOBODY remember how bad we were a mere 6 years ago? Really?
The Padres had more wins this year than last year, and played in the BEST division in baseball. We should all be ecstatic that they’re playing where they are today.
October 1, 2007 at 9:15 am
Re: 32 I think nog may get the start, but no way barret does.
Re: 33 I think that we only have to sit through one more season of patch work, the farm system looks like it is getting to the point where they will have a solid pool to pull from instead of finding washed up Vets to come in for a year to fill a hole.
October 1, 2007 at 9:15 am
34. Great comment, couldn’t agree more.
Also Hoffman threw a great pitch to Gwynn on Saturday a change-up that was just above the ankles - and credit to Tony Jr. he put a good swing on the ball.
…but I’ll take that pitch anytime, and usually Hoffman will win with it.
October 1, 2007 at 9:17 am
This is gonna be a busy blog today!!! (sorry GY - “blog” doesn’t do what you have created here justice). Everyone’s at work doing nothing but talking Padres on Ducksnorts. Sweet.
October 1, 2007 at 9:20 am
NOT BARRETT!!!. The Curse, remember the curse! Cubs are in after dumping Barrett, that is a stone cold fact.
October 1, 2007 at 9:20 am
We’ll see if BB is looking at the stat sheet at all, if he is then there is no way NOG and Barrett shouldn’t be playing, especially with Bard and Blum completely sucking off Fogg. Those are going to be big decisions that could help decide the game.
October 1, 2007 at 9:25 am
26 - Let’s hope the Padres’ playoff experience is NOT a factor today! Aren’t they 1-10 in the post-season since making it to the World Series in 1998?!
October 1, 2007 at 9:25 am
Re: 34 Just because we are critical of a team does not mean that we do not support them. Are fans happy to have a winning team? of coarse and we show that in ticket and merch sales, but last time I checked the goal of every team was to win the WS and every year 29 sets of fans are disappointed.
The Padres are competing for our entertainment dollar they have to put a competitive team out there or they loose money (see 99-03) so im not going to pat them on the back for that, its their job.
October 1, 2007 at 9:28 am
9 & 34: Phantom, repeating that the Padres are in the best division in baseball doesn’t make it so. Best division in the NL, yeah. Most competitive division in MLB, yeah, that works. But, really, any NL team would, IMHO, have been hard pressed to finish as high as third in any AL division this year.
All that said, I’m leaving work early today to see the Padres earn a trip to Philly. And, yeah, you guys are right, that whole plate discipline thing is the key today.
October 1, 2007 at 9:28 am
Probably not important given the game this afternoon but BP is also reporting that the Padres are going to be making Andruw Jones a 1 year 15M offer this off season
October 1, 2007 at 9:28 am
Re: 40 yeah but that’s only against the Cardinals
October 1, 2007 at 9:31 am
Re 33: KT is “forced” to deal with a budget, like pretty much every GM in any non-major market city. The Padres do not bring in as much revenue as the Dodgers or Giants; therefore, they have less money to spend which generally means a smaller team payroll. Moores spends as much out of his own pocket, if not more, than any owner not named Moreno. They appear now to be spending that money wisely on the major league field and appear to be turning it around in terms of the wisdom of their minor league and other player development expenditures.
San Diego fans have supported loser Padres teams to the tune of 2+ million a year in several seasons since 1995. They have supported bad Charger teams. Now that the baseball fans have gotten a taste of continued success, something that has NEVER happened since 1969, we will see if fan friendliness changes and instead the fans become arrogant World Series demanders.
October 1, 2007 at 9:32 am
Re: 43 man that makes no since, Jones will get more years and money than that.
October 1, 2007 at 9:32 am
34, 36. How is it arrogance to want a World Championship? Seriously. Why is that arrogance?
The team is good, I love watching the games, I went to a bunch this year, but it’s the fourth year in a row the team has finished with between 82 and 89 wins. This team is hovering, not progressing.
As I said, if the majority of the fans are cool with that, then fine. Personally, I’ve been living in SD for 25 years, and I’d like to win the city’s first World Championship (and the AFL title in 1963 doesn’t count).
October 1, 2007 at 9:35 am
I’m thinking that next year, the Padres mantra needs to be, “Mission LATE October.”
October 1, 2007 at 9:38 am
I’m confused how anyone could say this team hasn’t progressed, you do realize that there is a huge difference between 82-89 wins right?
Additionally when Petco first opened we would have been hard pressed to name 5 guys who might be on the team 5 years into the future. Now we could probably name 10 that says a lot for how the organization has been able to improve as a whole.
October 1, 2007 at 9:38 am
I realy dont understand why you all are against people saying that they want the Pads in the WS? Isn’t that the goal? Isn’t that why they are trying to improve? Fans support this team, they will as long as they stay competitive but fans want a world sereies thats the point of rooting for your team, thats the big payoff for sticking with them over all the down years. Its not like if the Padres don’t go to the WS this year no one will care about them next year, we will be disapointed for a week and then start talking about how they can improve thier chances to win next year.
October 1, 2007 at 9:39 am
39: I don’t put much stock in head-to-head stats. If barrett and NOG sucked all year, they’re more likely to suck today, IMO
October 1, 2007 at 9:40 am
Man, we are fired up for the game already.
I don’t want Barrett starting.
Helton owns Peavy. This is very disconcerting. That lineup 1-6 the Rockies have is tough. I hope the Padres hitters are ready to be patience with Fogg. I sure would like to see NOG start 2B but his hacking ways just suck.
October 1, 2007 at 9:41 am
Re: 49 I agree that the team has progressed, but there needs to be a point to the progression and I always thought that point was to win a championship, was I wrong?
October 1, 2007 at 9:43 am
Re: 51 with batters you have to put a little stock into head-to-head match ups because the batter may see the ball come out of particular pitches hand really will or the pitchers “stuff” may play really well into the batters strengths.
October 1, 2007 at 9:45 am
50: There’s nothing wrong with wanting to win the WS. I, personally, think there IS something wrong if you’re hostile towards the FO just because that goal isn’t accomplished.
Everyone knows, they KNOW, that this team cannot compete financially. Given that, I fail to understand why people get so indignant when we, gasp, don’t spend money.
Seriously, this year, which FO would you have rather had? Ours, or the Dodgers? People can claim that the Dodgers wanted to win the WS because they ponied up stupid money. And that got them a 4th place finish.
If people want to be angry at a SD sports team for not winning it all, be upset at the Chargers. The Chargers can compete (thank you, salary cap) and they HAVE the superstars that we all wish the Padres could get in baseball. Yet, the Chargers have had just as much success as the Padres the past few years. Somehow, though, the Chargers get painted as the franchise that really wants it all, while everyone kicks the Padres when they’re down. Could someone explain this to me?
October 1, 2007 at 9:48 am
Steve, I think we all want to win a world series. Probably time to realize that the Padres will NEVER be favored to do so as long as they play in San Diego.
The organization has improved each year in Petco, they still make some mistakes and don’t spend as much as we’d like on the draft but overall things are good.
Nothing much has changed, if the team had went 4-3 on this same road trip in April we’d all have been pretty happy. Peavy should be able to win the game today, if he doesn’t then they don’t deserve to be in anyway.
After that it isn’t like starting Young and Maddux the first 2 games in Philly is going to cause any huge problem. Jake can come back on regular rest for game 3.
October 1, 2007 at 9:50 am
A short sidebar about the Chargers: If you want to complain about an owner not spending money check out how far under the cap the Chargers are(about 20M) think that could have brought back Edwards and found a better corner and safety….let alone a real #1 wideout
October 1, 2007 at 9:50 am
Didn’t Barrett happen to get a hit off Suppan yesterday? A guy he “owns”? I think those head-to-head numbers are relevant if sample size is decent. I wouldn’t mind seeing NOG start, but I’d rather have Bard.
October 1, 2007 at 9:51 am
Re 33:
I wrote an e-mail about another topic, but 2 of my points are relevant here:
6. San Diego played ‘07 about 8mm under the allotted budget - they weren’t being cheap, they just did find the right player to spend the money on
8. For all San Diego’s perceived cheapness, the only players they let walk away in free agency (since Alderson coming board) haven’t done so hot with their new teams (Ramon Hernandez, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Chan Ho Park, etc.)
***
San Diego WILL spend the money on the right players (ie. I will be SHOCKED if the Padres let Jake walk - he’ll won’t be on the wrong side of 30 when he’s a FA - he’s a premium talent at a premium position)…
October 1, 2007 at 9:51 am
52:In Fogg’s case I agree with some patience although pitch count will be rather meaningless, since he will go no more than the 5-6 innings he has the last ten games. He has walked 17 batters in the last 34 innings.
October 1, 2007 at 9:52 am
34: Phantom, I respectfully disagree.
I have been through ALL the lean years with this team (from the early 70’s on). I’m a lifelong Padre fan. Just ask the players and coaches whether or not it’s ‘good enough’ just to make it to the playoffs? It certainly isn’t for them, and it shouldn’t be for us.
Maybe that is because I expect more and want more than just to ‘be there’ in October. Yes, we’re on the doorstep for the third year in a row. Yes, the NL West is the toughest division around, but just getting in isn’t good enough and should never be. I want a championship for this team and for San Diego. If that makes me and Richard D. arrogant, then so be it.
October 1, 2007 at 9:53 am
Re: 55 People like our FO (SA, KT, GF ect…) we all acknowledge that they have done an amazing job. Fans don’t like our owner, JM has shot himself in the foot a number of times by making promises he cannot keep and/or misleading fans. You can argue the semantics about what he did or did not say but you have to admit that he intentionally painted a brighter picture than he ahs delivered.
October 1, 2007 at 9:53 am
54: You’re probably right, but I think the effect is either minimal or not accurately represented in those stats…I still think the fact that Bard has a .360 OBP vs. Barretts sub-300 in hundreds of PA’s this year tells me more about what they might do today then their stats vs. Fogg.
October 1, 2007 at 9:53 am
Funny to hear all the Baseball Tonight guys picking the Rockies today…guess it doesn’t matter that Fogg sucks
October 1, 2007 at 9:54 am
I don’t think anyone is painting the Chargers as wanting it all - they hired Norv Turner for crying out loud.
The Padres’ hands are tied financially, so they have to be smart. From what I hear they have been drafting well (a la the Chargers), and that should pay dividends in the coming years with good players who will be on the team for a while (a la Peavy). In the meantime it’s great to celebrate their successes, but we wouldn’t be fans if we didn’t want more.
October 1, 2007 at 9:58 am
in the Getting Ahead Of Ourselves department, is it just me or is this the worst 4th starter situation we’ve had in years? Cassel/Germano making starts in the postseason? Any chance they pull a Jeff Weaver? ugh.
October 1, 2007 at 10:00 am
Re: 63 I agree with you on Bard and Barret but its more because Bard is one of the leaders on the team and he is also mr clutch so he needs to be out there tonight, I was more talking about
nog/b(l)um.
October 1, 2007 at 10:00 am
Objectively, I’d pick the rockies too, or if I had real money on the game. The h2h favors the rocks, so does their offense. But its baseball and anything can happen, see Sat night.
October 1, 2007 at 10:00 am
I can’t blame the pundits for picking the Rockies. Thems got some swagger right now. But the Pads won 7 of the first 12 against them. They can be beaten - 73 times so far.
Eric, we agree on Bard, and I give Marcus the start at 2nd. How good are his stats against Fogg?
October 1, 2007 at 10:01 am
62 - don’t forget all those frivolous lawsuits that delayed Petco for several years. I think the added financial burden of those unplanned-for Qualcomm years is just now stating to be relieved. People seem to want to rip Moores for not breaking the bankroll open as soon as Petco opened it’s doors, forgetting that there was/is a cost to those delays.
64 - predictable. Couple thoughts why:
A) Padres are never **** enough for national pundits to fall all over themselves for (no “hot” young talent, no superstar hitters bopping 50+ dingers, etc);
2) everyone likes to believe in momentum, which is clearly on CO’s side if it matters at all. I tend to think that’s garbage, the most important player in every game is the two SP, and that changes every game so how do you have any momentum at all in baseball if the most important player is never the same game to game?
October 1, 2007 at 10:04 am
I wish they’d just go to Johnny Wholestaff whenever that situation arises….they’re going to carry 11 pitchers(because they can’t help themselves) so its not like the guys are going to be taxed with all the off days coming up in the playoff schedule.
Game 1 Wednesday: Maddux(full rest)
Game 2 Thursday: Young(full rest)
Game 3 Saturday: Peavy(full rest)
Game 4 Sunday: ****….Maddux on 3 or Johnny Wholestaff
Game 5 Tuesday: Young with an extra day
I’d think they use Maddux on 3 and try and get him out of there after 4-5. With the 3 days around that game being 2 days off and a Peavy start the bullpen should be in perfect shape to throw 5+ IP
October 1, 2007 at 10:04 am
70: Good points about Moores and about why the Padres aren’t getting any love. Jake also has stopped more losing streaks in baseball than any other pitcher. Tonite would be a great time for him to do so again.
As for Moores lying about committmens, I have yet to see any material proof on this point. People always say, “But he said so!” Really? Where is that? Where and when did he say it?
Moores promised competitiveness, which is what we’ve gotten since being in Petco. Once you make it to the dance, you can do anything.
October 1, 2007 at 10:05 am
#47: I don’t think it’s arrogance to want to win the WS. What gets me is the presumption by some that the Padres FO doesn’t have that as their goal.
#64: It’s only funny if they’re wrong.
#66: Er, um, no comment…
October 1, 2007 at 10:08 am
Re: 70 even past the Petco stuff, JM was quoted this year as to saying that he wanted “big name” talent on this team during the whole bonds HR thing. We’ve talked about it before, SA should put a gag order on the whole Padres FO (including JM) and they would get them selves in a whole lot less trouble with the fans.
October 1, 2007 at 10:09 am
69-NOG and Blum are closer…I wouldn’t mind giving the nod to nog vs fogg for defense
October 1, 2007 at 10:11 am
74- wanting something is not the same as promising it
who wouldn’t “want” ARod?
October 1, 2007 at 10:11 am
Game 4 of the Phillies series shouldn’t be a huge issue: they can start Maddux on 3 days rest and use the pen for 5+ IP. The 3 days directly around the game would include 2 days off and a Peavy start…so no problem for the pen there
October 1, 2007 at 10:12 am
Personally I think the point is to field a team that has a chance to go deep in the playoffs every year. You can’t build a team to win the World Series if you don’t get to the playoffs. How many teams can afford to go all out for the World Series? Boston, NY, Chicago, LA, maybe Atlanta. Barring that kind of revenue, the next best thing is to make smart trades, stay away from bad contracts, build a strong farm system and look for bargains internationally, all of which the Padres are doing.
I think the Padres have as good a chance as Colorado, the Cubs and Cleveland to win it all. They’re never going to be the Yankees or Red Sox but they can be like Oakland or Minnesota, competitive teams most years, with a chance to beat anyone if they get hot. If a Kevin Brown type situation becomes available you can jump on it to put yourself over the top.
People point to the attendance as proof that the Padres are making money but the real money is in TV revenue. Getting that kind of money requires a huge and passionate fan base, something that just isn’t going to happen here, no matter how many games the Padres win.
October 1, 2007 at 10:13 am
77- I like that thinking. I kinda doubt they’ll do that, so I still worry
October 1, 2007 at 10:18 am
Re: 76 thats my point about semantics, you can debate the meaning of what he has said all you want but his point was to give fans the impresion that the pads were going to look to sign a big name in the offseason.
Its the same he did to get petco, yes you can not point to one smoking gun quote from JM but the padres gave fans the impresion that they would have big name tallent on the roster and be competivie every year. You can debate weather limping into the playoffs for 3 straight years is being competivie or not (I think it is) but some may not see it that way.
October 1, 2007 at 10:20 am
TV money has little if anything to do with a rabid fan base and everything to do with a large number of humans living in your “local” broadcast area
October 1, 2007 at 10:21 am
Re: 78 or making poor long term deals with rink-a-dink local cable stations who will not put the games on satilite.
October 1, 2007 at 10:27 am
It aslo has to do with SD having alot of transpolants who follow the cubs/yankees/mets/dodgers ect… SD is still a new large city, most people (30+) who liver here were not born here.
October 1, 2007 at 10:32 am
I want the Padres’ organization (owner, FO, players, fans) to want to win a WS … in fact, I believe they/we all do …
October 1, 2007 at 10:36 am
82 - rink-a-dink? COX is all over the country…
October 1, 2007 at 10:37 am
re 83: Actually that has absolutely nothing to do with how a team gets paid for tv revenue. They charge a fee per person or per household. If I remember correctly it works out to something like $2.50 per customer for the cable company. Cox probably has something along the lines of 3M people locally for the Padres where the Red Sox are looking at, at least 20M people considered local for them.
October 1, 2007 at 10:40 am
We didn’t win in the playoffs last year because Moneyball teams can’t hit in the clutch in October. Duh!
Steve, fair posts, but I don’t think the Pads limped into the playoffs last year, even if it was a 88-74 team. Didn’t “we” go something like 20-9 in September?
October 1, 2007 at 10:40 am
I think the points being made can be made without labeling passionate and respectful padres fans here “arrogant.” I also think it’s quite possible to be ecstatic of what you’ve got here in SD, but desirous of more.
The FO clearly does all it can to do as well as it can, and it’s success clearly makes it one of the best in baseball. However, there’s nothing wrong with wishing that the owner would be as passionate as winning as some Padres fans are. I think there are many of us that if in JM’s position would be willing to make less money or even lose some for an increased chance of success. And based on what the FO has done with this much money, I can’t help but salivate over the thought of what they could do with more.
I am optimistic about today, I am optimistic about the future, and I love being a Padres fan right now. And as good an owner as JM may arguably be, I can’t help but wish he was a little bit better.
October 1, 2007 at 10:41 am
Re: 85 I meant Ch4 not cox itself
October 1, 2007 at 10:43 am
How many PAs needed before BVP stats are predictive? I’m going to guess it’s pretty high. And, I’m also going to venture a guess that except at the extremes (many PAs and ungodly bad or good numbers), BVP should be largely ignored.
For example, Peavy vs Helton. Career OPS of 1080. Looks pretty good for Helton, right? Against Jake, Helton is even above his career OPS (1014).
But slice it up a bit:
Thru 2005: Helton OPS vs Jake = 1225
2006-07 = 788
And isn’t this what we’d expect? Helton in his prime dominated the kid pitcher. But as Helton ages, and Jake comes into his prime, things shift.
So, at the very least, I’d be very skeptical of making lineup decisions on BVP numbers without scrutinizing them closely.
October 1, 2007 at 10:43 am
re 82-83: At the time the Cox deal was made, it was better for the team than any the Padres had ever made. Arguably, Cox paid too much for the rights. The only way the Padres can do better is to get a regional sports network to pick them up or to start one of their own - which leads to the fundamental problem.
San Diego is a SMALL media market. It doesn’t have the potential reach that LA or SF has. It is blocked by LA/OC to the north; the ocean to the west, no man’s land to the east, and Mexico to the south. Mexico, like other foreign countries without teams, is MLB’s property in terms of most revenue, not the Padres’.
I hope the Padres can get an RSN started for their next contract, to pick up satellite and cable viewers and bring in more revenue, but it may not be easy.
Also, it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting. I want a lot of things I am not likely to get, and I can’t really make serious promises about them. The Padres may want an expensive prime free agent or ten, but they are never likely to get them, and it is foolish for a fan to translate a “want” or even a “need” into a “promise”. It is best to listen with your head and not with your heart in such situations.
October 1, 2007 at 10:44 am
Re: 87 I was looking more at 05 and 07, but they did not wrap up the Div until game 162 last year, so its not like they were a dominate force in what was a weaker NL west last year.
October 1, 2007 at 10:46 am
Re: 3/4…I am now living in Portsmouth, Virginia…sorta like Coronado (small town, on the water, things to walk to, view of downtown), but not really. I am just trying to make myself feel better or something…
October 1, 2007 at 10:49 am
Re: 91
“it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting.”
When the guy who writes checks for the team says it, it is semantics.
October 1, 2007 at 10:51 am
Geoff, r we going to break the non-IGD comment record today? Nearly 100 before noon…
October 1, 2007 at 10:52 am
93. I live to the north in DC, but that is a beautiful area, especially when you go to the Virginia side of the Delmarva penisula..but its not Coronado
October 1, 2007 at 10:53 am
Well it’ll cost them 100-200M to start their own tv channel so I wouldn’t count on that happening any time soon