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Links for 14 Oct 08

Tuesday, October 14, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm trying out a tool that pulls links from my Delicious bookmarks and publishes them here on a semi-regular basis... How much should Ben Sheets get? (Hardball Times). Victor Wang uses projected performance and risk analysis to predict that free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets will get $55-65 million for 4 or 5 years. The methodology seems reasonable, although that's an awful lot to pay for a guy who has made fewer than 25 starts in three of the last four seasons. Padres target pair of coaches (Padres.com). Corey Brock talks coaching changes. From the article: "The team has targeted Jim Lefebvre as the favorite for its hitting coach vacancy and ...

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Posted in Notes and Links | No Comments »

Writing the Book (13 Oct 08)

Monday, October 13, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm still making good progress on the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual. This week I worked on player profiles and dashboards. My goal was to complete eight of 'em, but I ended up doing 13. Next up: a few more full profiles to write, plus several shorter pieces on guys who didn't contribute as much; I should finish those later this week. I've also started piecing together a quasi-philosophical essay on the challenges that lay ahead for the Padres as they try to gain the trust of a fan base and media that show little interest in trusting them. I started thinking about this back when support was waning even as the team won 88 and 89 games in '06 and '07, but more recently I've been ...

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Posted in 2009 Annual | 4 Comments »

Padres tickets Chargers tickets Sports tickets

OBG08 Revisited: Pitchers

Friday, October 10, 2008
by Geoff Young

We're looking back at our pre-season community projections. On Wednesday we covered the hitters; today we turn to the pitchers. Left-Handers Justin Hampson, 2008 IPERA Projected484.21 Actual30.22.93 Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA. Joe Thatcher, 2008 IPERA Projected582.86 Actual25.28.42 We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher's ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96. Randy Wolf, 2008 IPERA Projected1244.18 Actual190.14.30 Wolf's ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn't mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros. Right-Hander...

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Posted in Projections | 12 Comments »

OBG08 Revisited: Hitters

Wednesday, October 8, 2008
by Geoff Young

Back in February we did some community projections for the 2008 Padres. In the interest of accountability, here's how we measured up to reality. Catchers Josh Bard, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected425.278.357.410 Actual198.202.279.270 Yuck. Our most pessimistic projection had Bard at a 725 OPS. Michael Barrett, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected246.263.323.419 Actual107.202.274.298 We need a synonym for "yuck," preferably something that rhymes. If only there were such a word... Infielders Adrian Gonzalez, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected641.293.362.517 Actual700.279.361.510 We totally nailed this one. Imagine how many batting titles Gonzalez could win if he didn't play half his games at Petco Park and weren't Molina-brother slow. Khalil Greene, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected561.257.309.464 Actual423.213.260.339 Greene and Bard killed the offense this year, but we already knew that. Tadahito Iguchi, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected532.263.341.391 Actual337.232.292.306 Iguchi was actually a little worse than Marcus Giles in 2007, which just boggles the imagination....

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Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

We’ll See You When We See You

Monday, September 29, 2008
by Geoff Young

The season is over. Thank goodness for that. The Padres played brutal baseball for most of 2008, and fans were in a pretty sour mood all year. Unfortunately I let the negativity get to me more than I should have. I suppose it's safe to admit this now, because I no longer feel it's likely to happen, but on multiple occasions throughout the summer, I came within hours of pulling the plug on Ducksnorts for good. My wife talked me down each time, and for that I owe her many thanks. So do you if you enjoy this site at all. Going forward, I'm developing strategies to help me better survive next season and keep me from reaching the point where I dread visiting my own blog. One ...

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Posted in Site News | 22 Comments »

It Could Be Worse; Just Ask the Mariners

Thursday, September 25, 2008
by Geoff Young

Bullet points this morning: I've got a new piece up at Baseball Digest Daily that talks about the challenges facing the Seattle Mariners this off-season. Here in San Diego, the Padres have their work cut out for them as they attempt to rebuild, but there's something to be said for not owing Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva a combined $30.35 million next year. One idea I have for the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is a quick survey of the Padres' last 10 drafts. I'm thinking of something along the lines of what Scott Lucas has done at Ranger Rundown, with maybe a little more commentary. ...

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Posted in 2009 Annual, Notes and Links | 5 Comments »

Fun with Run Support

Thursday, September 18, 2008
by Geoff Young

My latest article at Hardball Times focuses on a technique Bill James employed in his 1988 Baseball Abstract to evaluate the degree to which a pitcher might be aided (or not) by his offense. James used it to compare Danny Jackson and Walt Terrell from 1985 to 1987; I use it to compare Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz in 2003. . . . Elsewhere, Tom Tango is doing his annual fan scouting report. Go lend your expertise to the project and scout the Padres (h/t It Might Be Dangerous... You ...

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Posted in Notes and Links | 3 Comments »