by Geoff Young on Aug 17, 2010
Have you ever noticed how the more you win, the more the little things irritate? Like watching the bullpen implode toward the end of Monday night’s victory against the Cubs. I should be happy with the win, right? I mean, before the season, if you’d told me the Padres would notch their 70th victory on August 16, I’d have been ecstatic.
Actually, I would have laughed; after all, I pegged this team to win 72-75 games, which looks about as silly right now as Dave Cameron’s pre-season ranking of the Seattle Mariners as the sixth best organization in MLB. Here, I must steal Dave’s words because they serve as an eloquent defense of my pessimism regarding the Padres (also, I happen to agree with him on this point):
I’m of the opinion that we should see everything in shades of probability. Since we don’t know what’s going to happen, I don’t find a lot of value in predictions. They are, for all intents and purposes, just guesses, some more informed than others.
Exactly. Meanwhile, back in the “pulling our heads out of the clouds” realm of actual games, I find myself oddly unsettled after a 9-5 win. There I go again with my sense of entitlement.
I can forgive the relief corps for allowing five runs in three innings. Those guys have been brilliant all year, and nobody is perfect. That they faltered doesn’t bug me; what bugs me is the way it happened. Continue reading ›
by Geoff Young on Aug 16, 2010
Jonathan Sanchez: “San Diego has been winning series all year. But we’re going to play San Diego now, and we’re going to beat them three times.”
San Diego Padres: “No. No, you’re not.”
As conversations go, this had all the subtlety of a spatula to the forehead. Still, there is something to be said for getting to the point, even if that point is dead wrong. Continue reading ›
by Geoff Young on Aug 13, 2010
It’s the most wonderful time of the week…
- Fangraphs Live: The Numbers Puppets Take Manhattan (OCD Chick). While SABR40 was going on in Atlanta, FanGraphs Live took place in another part of the east coast. Amanda Rykoff offers a nice recap of the proceedings. [h/t Hardball Times]
- Why Latos is good (it’s not just his stuff) (Friarhood). Friend of Ducksnorts Richard Dorsha talks about everyone’s favorite young right-hander: “Latos has a swagger that enables him to throw pitches the batter would never expect.” I know “swagger” is overused, but if it fits, it fits.
- Baseball Dreams: Striking Out in the Dominican Republic (Time). According to this article by Sean Gregory, “The D.R. is baseball’s puppy mill. The buscones develop and sometimes feed and house these teenage players, with the intent of selling them to the highest bidder, a major league team willing to fork over thousands, if not millions, of dollars to secure a prospect.” I have finally started reading Marcos Breton’s Away Games. My only problem with it so far is that the heavy-handedness of the writing sometimes undermines the message, which is an important one. The Dominican situation saddens me, but apparently not enough to stop supporting the teams that exploit it. [h/t BBTF]
- Scouting Reports from the 2010 Area Code Games (Baseball Analysts). Rich gives a detailed account of one of the top amateur showcases. This is a must-read, especially if you are planning to attend (as am I) the Aflac All-American Baseball Classic on Sunday at Petco Park.
- MacLane’s photostream (Flickr). This has nothing whatsoever to do with baseball, but as a LEGO aficionado, I think I’m in love. [h/t Slashdot]
- Let’s talk about feelings (Woe Doctor!). Here’s another take on Jonathan Sanchez’s comments about the Padres: “I’m not expecting Hairston to be spitting fire or anything, but I expected at least a little bit of finger-pointing while whispering ‘scoreboard.’ ” Of course, if you take care of business, there will be plenty of time to point at the scoreboard later… assuming you can find it amidst all the champagne.
- Pirates Mathematically Eliminated From Major League Baseball (The Onion). Bringin’ teh funny. [h/t Hardball Times]
- The problems with defensive stats (SI.com). Tim Marchman weighs in with some thoughts on the subject, as does Joe Posnaski. [h/t BBTF]
- Jed Hoyer’s First Year (MLB Trade Rumors). Tim Dierkes likes what the new GM has done so far, and why not?
- WAR and the Rule 5 Draft (Baseball Analysts). Jeremy Greenhouse reminds us that the Padres once snagged Bip Roberts. He also reminds us that they lost Shane Mack and Joakim Soria.
- 40 years ago today (8/12/10) (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe recalls the time Bob Gibson worked all 14 innings against the Padres.
- Another look at replacement level (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann delivers food for thought… tasty, tasty food.
- Under the Radar, on Top of the N.L. (New York Times). Tyler Kepner offers refreshingly in-depth analysis of the Padres. Much of this will be review material for fans, but it’s still worth reading, as is Kepner’s companion blog entry. [h/t reader parlo]
Sweeping the Pirates was nice. Taking care of business in San Francisco would be even nicer.
by Geoff Young on Aug 12, 2010
It’s amazing the sense of entitlement one acquires when one’s team succeeds beyond anyone’s wildest imagination. I don’t mean to sound ungrateful — after all, the Padres did beat the Pirates on Wednesday — but whatever happened to playing a full nine innings?
In case you missed it, the Padres held a 6-0 lead headed into the seventh. That inning, Kevin Correia retired the first batter he faced; then this happened:
J Tabata singled to left center.
N Walker singled to center, J Tabata to second.
G Jones singled to left, J Tabata to third, N Walker to second.
P Alvarez walked, J Tabata scored, N Walker to third, G Jones to second.
The Alvarez walk, incidentally, came after Correia had jumped ahead in the count, 0-2. I recognize that Alvarez is a dangerous hitter, but with a seven-run lead, you need to be in attack mode.
Ernesto Frieri replaced Correia, and although Frieri escaped the jam, he also allowed all of his inherited runners to score. Don’t get me wrong, a three-run lead after seven is still nice, but you can’t be giving the opposition hope right there. Before that inning, the Pirates had none… from that point forward, they played like they thought they could come back and win; what’s worse, they almost did.
Am I done complaining? Dude, I haven’t even gotten started. Continue reading ›
by Geoff Young on Aug 11, 2010
Wade LeBlanc pitched well again in Tuesday night’s victory over the Pirates. He’s done that a lot this year.
At the ripe old age of 25, LeBlanc now has roughly a full season’s worth of work under his belt. To this point, he compares well with a more highly touted youngster who happens to pitch in the same division:
Player Age GS IP ERA ERA+ H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Wade LeBlanc 25 34 190.2 4.06 91 9.13 1.37 3.69 6.28
Ian Kennedy 25 35 198.2 4.94 91 8.43 1.31 4.12 7.25
LeBlanc gets to pitch half his games at Petco Park, which makes his surface numbers look much better (2.58 ERA at home vs 5.61 on the road). Kennedy has allowed fewer hits and struck out more batters, and truth be told, he’s probably the superior pitcher… but it’s closer than you might have expected.
by Geoff Young on Aug 11, 2010
My latest Hardball Times article examines the control of pitchers at various minor-league levels. It actually started out as a blog entry for Ducksnorts but then morphed into something bigger.
The inspiration for this piece was a pitcher in the Padres organization named Ivan Marcano. He’s a right-hander for the DSL Padres who has had an amazing pro debut:
IP H R ER HR BB K HBP WP
21.2 14 30 27 0 34 12 8 24
Marcano leads the DSL in wild pitches. (I haven’t checked, but given that more wild pitches occur in the DSL than in any other league, I’m guessing he leads all of organized baseball.) He uncorked seven of them in his last start.
To give some perspective, only four men in MLB history have thrown more wild pitches in a season than Marcano has this year, and they all needed at least 200 more innings to accomplish the feat:
Player Year IP WP
Red Ames 1905 262.2 30
Larry Cheney 1914 311.1 26
Tony Cloninger 1966 257.2 27
Juan Guzman 1993 221.0 26
Mark Buehrle hasn’t unleashed as many in his entire big-league career:
IP WP
Marcano 2010 21.2 24
Buehrle car. 2208.0 20
The closest thing MLB has to a guy this wild is Giants reliever Santiago Casilla (191.1 IP, 24 WP), and that’s not really close.
Anyway, I don’t mean to pick on Marcano (or his teammate, Rudi Andujar, who has 17 WP in 28 IP); he’s a kid trying to learn how to pitch, and there’s no shame in that. The larger point is that context is important and that one minor-league environment can be radically different from another. I’m hardly the first to make this observation, but I like to think that my latest effort adds something of value to the discussion. Enjoy…
by Geoff Young on Aug 10, 2010
Snappy intro? We don’t need no stinkin’ snappy intro…
- A pennant race crystal ball (Yahoo!). Tim Brown likes the Padres’ chances: “The starting rotation is good, the back end of the bullpen is great, and the offense has shown some life in July and August.”
- Moneyball Before Moneyball Was Cool (Payoff Pitch). Gene Tenace and Jimmy Wynn are two of my personal heroes. Regarding Tenace, who is the second or third best catcher (depending on your opinion of Benito Santiago) in Padres history, the author notes that “his power stroke faded” on arriving in San Diego; of course, hitting home runs out of San Diego Stadium at that time was hard to do, and I suspect Tenace’s power stroke might not have faded had he called some other ballpark home. [h/t BBTF]
- Most Young Regulars (Baseball-Reference). Speaking of which, here we have the ’77 Padres. You know, this could have been a good team in the making. Dave Winfield ended up in the Hall of Fame, Gene Richards was darned good until he reached 30, Mike Ivie should have been good… Even George Hendrick and Tenace were still in their primes. The pitching, though… when Bob Shirley is your best starter, that’s a problem.
- The Frieri Paradox (Chicken Friars). Nathaniel takes a closer look at Ernesto Frieri: “There are two possible explanations for the fastball’s success. The first is that it’s a small sample and that hitters could figure Frieri out once he’s been around the league a bit. The second is that something in his delivery is deceiving hitters to the point where the fastball seems like it’s coming in faster than the 90-95 mph it actually is.”
- Sixto’s ’82 Season (Padres, Chargers, Illini Blog). Ah, Sixto Lezcano. Ryan remembers one of the all-time great Padres seasons. Think Brian Giles 2005.
- 2010 San Diego Padres Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review (Minor League Ball). John Sickels reviews his pre-season list. He expresses concern at Jaff Decker’s BB/K ratio (which we’ve noted is due at least in part to his early-season injury) and likes Edinson Rincon. [h/t Friar Forecast]
- A Night At Dodger Stadium (Friar Forecast). Daniel visited Dodger Stadium and came away less than impressed. I haven’t been in a few years, but the last time I was there, it definitely had slipped from when I used to go as a kid.
- Storm closer prefers ‘cool’ over ‘dubious’ regarding saves record (U-T). Right-handed reliever Brad Brach is having a nice season at Lake Elsinore.
- Webb, Young race clock to return (Padres.com). Barry Bloom talks about Chris Young’s shoulder.
- Prior still hopes to return to Major Leagues (Padres.com). Speaking of shoulders, Mark Prior “threw a scoreless inning in relief… in his first competitive appearance in nearly four years.” It’s hard to believe he’s still only 29 years old. Here’s hoping he can make it back to the big leagues.
- Ten things I didn’t know before SABR40 (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe recaps the recently concluded SABR convention held in Atlanta. Next year’s event will be in LA, so I may have to drag my butt out of the basement and do that thing.
- Lake Elsinore: Leaders excited about AAA-team possibility (North County Times). This would be so awesome if they can swing it. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
- Sunday Seven: Padres Slowing Down (619Sports). Craig notes, among other things, that “the Padres’ team ERA has risen every month so far this season.” This comes (or should come) as no surprise to anyone who has followed the team since the start of the season, but it’s no less important now that we’re seeing it actually happen. As I’ve been saying since it became evident that the Padres weren’t a mirage this year, it would be nice to add a starting pitcher… preferably not Bob Shirley.
- Hard lessons led to Latos’ breakout season (Yahoo!). Quoth the young right-hander: “I’d probably beat the crap out of 19-year-old me. I’d probably hate myself too. But I’ve learned.” I’m not sure I’d beat the crap out of 19-year-old me, but I’ll bet I’d tell him to get off my lawn… which would be awkward and likely cause a rift in the space-time continuum. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
- Latos picks up Padres – again (U-T). Speaking of whom, you might say that Latos has a bit of an internal fire burning. Good.
- A Voice Embraces the Echoes of His Past (New York Times). Here’s a fun article on Padres televeision play-by-play announcer Dick Enberg. [h/t reader parlo]
- Padres pitching coach Balsley tops this season’s unsung coaches (SI.com). Jon Heyman acknowledges what many of have known for some time: that Darren Balsley has been doing fine work in San Diego. [h/t reader Pat]
That should keep you busy for a while.
by Geoff Young on Aug 09, 2010
Dropping two out of three to the Diamondbacks in Arizona over the weekend wasn’t part of the plan. On the bright side, the Giants did the same in Atlanta (and but for the left side of the Braves infield forgetting how to play defense in the ninth inning on Friday, the Giants would have been swept) so the Padres gave no ground.
Meanwhile, in the wake of his team’s poor showing in Atlanta, Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez provided a Padres team that seems to have lost focus with some excellent bulletin-board fodder:
We are going to make the playoffs. San Diego has been winning series all year. But we’re going to play San Diego now, and we’re going to beat them three times. If we get to first place, we’re not going to look back.
Kids say the darndest things. Aren’t they cute? Continue reading ›
by Geoff Young on Aug 06, 2010
Before we get to the rest of the links, you have to see Chris Denorfia’s inside-the-park home run from Thursday night’s victory over the Dodgers. It’s ridiculous; he actually bounced the ball off the dirt in front of home plate. It went over the head of third baseman Casey Blake, who was playing in to guard against the bunt, and bounced into foul territory. New Dodgers left fielder Scott Podsednik let the ball skip past him, all the way to the left field wall, by which time Denorfia was racing around third. He slid in well ahead of the throw home, which sailed past the catcher anyway. Seriously, that first hop was maybe 10 feet in front of the plate.
Baseball continues to surprise in its ability to continue to surprise… Continue reading ›
He Could Have Been the Second Best Pitcher Named ‘Whitson’ in Padres History
by Geoff Young on Aug 18, 2010 (8) Comments
Given further time to reflect on the Karsten Whitson situation, I’d like to expand on my initial thoughts. First off, it still stinks that Whitson isn’t a member of the Padres today. I’m sure all of us, with the possible exception of the player and his agent, would agree on that.
According to Corey Brock’s account at Padres.com, the team and player “reached an agreement” on draft day. As the signing deadline approached, despite said agreement, Whitson’s camp balked and so the Padres reportedly sweetened the pot to $2.1 million (up from the original offer, which had been at slot, i.e., $1.953 million). No dice. Continue reading ›