Pressure: You’re Soaking in It

by Geoff Young on Aug 31, 2010 (7) Comments

Really? Is this how it’s going to be? I guess a pennant race isn’t complete without at least one irritating stretch.

Welcome to it.

The Padres came out strong against Arizona lefty Joe Saunders on Monday night, with Miguel Tejada launching a first-inning bomb to left-center. They had a 2-0 lead before Saunders even recorded a single out. Twenty-seven outs later, the Padres still had those two runs. Continue reading ›

That Went Well

by Geoff Young on Aug 30, 2010 (7) Comments

As weekend plans go, I can think of better ones than getting swept at home by the Phillies. One that immediately leaps to mind is not getting swept at home by the Phillies.

I wish they hadn’t gotten so thoroughly trounced by the Astros before coming to San Diego. I can live with an opponent having talent or motivation, but both is too much. Continue reading ›

Friday Links (27 Aug 10)

by Geoff Young on Aug 27, 2010 (5) Comments

Now, with 30% more iron… irony… something…

  • Study Finds Independent Bloggers “Least Trusted”, Likely Denied Press Credentials in Baseball (Biz of Baseball). In related news, independent bloggers find study least trusted. [h/t BBTF]
  • Rob Dibble Thinks Stephen Strasburg Should ‘Suck It Up’ (FanHouse). Every village needs an idiot, I suppose. Quoth the one in question: “Stop crying, go out there and pitch. Period.” Presumably Dibble is accepting responsibility for whatever outcomes his “suggestion” might yield, including financial reimbursement of player and team if further injury results. Eh, what do I know; heeding the medical advice of a guy who blew out his shoulder and was washed up at age 29 is probably a great idea (although in my defense, Joe Posnanski isn’t impressed by Dibble’s nonsense either). [h/t BBTF]
  • Strasburg predictions (The Book). Speaking of which, Tom Tango looks back at expectations for the former Aztec. [h/t SweetSpot]
  • 2010 Scouting Report (The Book). Tango is doing that thing again this year… you know, that thing he does every year. Go, be a part of it. Here’s the direct link for the Padres.
  • Feet first, or head first? (Inside the Padres). Tom Krasovic talks about Jaff Decker’s injury.
  • Teaching Sabermetrics (Pitchers and Poets). As one who has been known to dabble in both sabermetrics and poetry, I found this amusing. [h/t BBTF]
  • Save the Outrage for a Guy Who Deserves It (M.C. Antil). Roberto Alomar? Really? Dude, even the recipient of Alomar’s spit isn’t behind you on this one. I suggest you redirect your outrage toward the guy who took your stapler; just don’t go burning down any buildings, mkay? [h/t BBTF]
  • Interview: Dave Winfield (Dayn Perry). Quoth Winfield: “Bud Black is a great manager. He’s taught them pitching, base-running and defense. They fight and scratch and claw, and they embrace the underdog role. Even the fans don’t quite believe it.”
  • M’s fans will return when the model’s built (SweetSpot). Quoth Neyer: “People like Larry Stone and Dave Cameron and Rob Neyer really, really, really want to believe that if you start building something cool, everybody’s going to want to watch… To most people, though, it’s just a big mess. Nobody wants to see the kit, or all the pieces and the airplane glue and the paint thinner. Everybody wants to see the completed model, with the paint and the decals, hung from the ceiling with fishing line.” Huh, I think we just went through that here in San Diego.
  • PART I – Advanced Experimentation 410: The Zduriencik Supremacy, or Containing an Implosion (Management by Baseball). Jeff Angus offers some interesting thoughts on last year’s flavor of the month. Part 2 and Part 3 are also available. [h/t BBTF]
  • Cooperstown Confidential: The Accomplished Mr. Brown (Hardball Times). Bruce Markusen recalls the contributions of former Pirates GM Joe Brown, a pioneer in procuring and developing minority talent.
  • Aging Players – Bargains for 2011? (Baseball Analysts). Patrick Sullivan presents an intriguing list. Mark Ellis might make for a nice option at second base next year, assuming his price is low due to the poor 2010 showing… and assuming his poor showing is a blip rather than the beginning of the end (Tadahito Iguchi sends his regards).
  • Marlins’ profits came at taxpayer expense (Yahoo!). Jeffrey Loria and David Samson engaging in shenanigans? It wouldn’t be the first time. [h/t BBTF]
  • Will Leaked MLB Financials Alter Revenue-Sharing? (FanGraphs). From Maury Brown’s article: “And while the leaked documents are an incredible look inside how clubs truly operate, greedily we should demand more. Those at the top of MLB’s revenue-making ladder should be placed under the same scrutiny.” Sounds great, but I’m not holding my breath. If there’s one thing the owners excel at, it’s circling the wagons.
  • Incomplete thoughts on ground-ball pitchers (Ivan Bezdomny’s Baseball Blog). Interesting stuff: “You can’t be a great pitcher on ground balls alone, at least not over a course of several years. You need to have strikeouts.” [h/t BBTF]
  • Hot Topic: Attendance (Gaslamp Ball). From the article: “Teams that have sudden success do not have their largest boost in ticket sales for the current season. They have it the following season. Part of that is about the hype for the team and part of it is about people trying to secure playoff tickets.”
  • Say It Ain’t So: Shoeless Joe Jackson’s “Black Sox” Jersey in Baseball Hall of Fame is a Fake (Hauls of Shame). Wow. Just wow. [h/t BBTF]
  • Heath Bell Takes Another Step Forward (FanGraphs). Really? Could’ve fooled me. Don’t get me wrong, I love Bell and what he’s meant to this team over the past few years, but I do miss those 1-2-3 innings: 16 in 53 appearances (30.2%) through August 26 this year vs 24 in 68 (35.3%) in 2009.
  • An underrated fastball (Hardball Times). Ricky Zanker likes Bell, too.
  • Padres 2010 Instructional League Roster (MadFriars). There are some interesting names on this list: John Barbato, Adys Portillo, Jason Hagerty, Jonathan Galvez, Jedd Gyorko, Edinson Rincon, personal fave Jeudy Valdez, Rymer Liriano, Yair Lopez (someone please return his plate discipline), Everett Williams… The guys at MadFriars also have a couple of interviews up behind the paywall: one with Randy Smith about the Instructional League and one with Jason McLeod about the 2010 draft.
  • Umpires Are to be Seen and Not Heard (Crashburn Alley). On the bright side, at least Ryan Howard didn’t blow out a knee while being tackled by his manager. [h/t SweetSpot]
  • Superstitions a way of life for some Padres (U-T). Moral of the story? Be nice to the groundskeeper or things could get wet.
  • Chat: Marc Normandin (Baseball Prospectus). Marc likes the Padres and thinks they match up better against the Phillies than against the Giants in a potential playoff scenario. The bullpen? “This is not a Petco bullpen, this is a pen full of really, really good pitchers.” Also, someone is posting questions as “Geoff Young’s Biggest Fan”… I hope it isn’t Kathy Bates. [h/t reader Lance]

And thar ye have it.

Like Tom Browning and Kirk Gibson, but Not Really

by Geoff Young on Aug 26, 2010 (6) Comments

Crazy times in the National League West on Wednesday. The two teams chasing the Padres came back from 10-1 deficits. The Braves ended up losing to Colorado, 12-10. At least Cincinnati had the decency to fight back and beat the Giants, 12-11, in 12 innings.

Not that the Reds didn’t try to give it away. Mike Leake pinch-hitting in the seventh? Francisco Cordero batting for himself with the bases loaded in the 12th?

Thank goodness Bruce Bochy brought in his closer, Brian Wilson, to work the eighth of a game the Giants were then losing, 10-5. Wilson threw 23 pitches that inning, then sat in the dugout for a long time while his team scored six runs, before returning to work the ninth. Pablo Sandoval sat for a long time, too, which maybe helps explain why he committed San Francisco’s fifth error of the game. Whatever, we’ll take it.

Meanwhile, back home in San Diego, the Padres took care of business against the increasingly sad Diamondbacks. Sure, Stephen “I’m No Matt Bush” Drew went 4-for-4 with two doubles and two homers, but his teammates went 3-for-29, pushing Drew’s efforts into the “oh, by the by” file.

Wade LeBlanc? He served up the two homers. That will happen; people should be used to it by now. LeBlanc isn’t going to blow the ball past hitters, but he will challenge them, which means that sometimes stuff goes kaboom. Tom Browning turned the same recipe into a tasty career. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: There but for the Grace of Steve Finley…

by Geoff Young on Aug 25, 2010 (0) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times examines how the 1987 draft would have unfolded had we known then what we know now. This is the first of a four-part series and covers picks 1 through 8.

Although the Padres didn’t pick until the 10th spot, they would have been affected by the revised fifth pick. In our redraft, the White Sox take Steve Finley there, which means the Orioles never trade him to the Astros, who never trade him and Ken Caminiti to San Diego. That kills the Padres ’96 season, and without such success to build on, I’m not sure they go out and get Kevin Brown before the ’98 campaign. Without Brown, maybe that magical season never happens and the Padres are still playing their home games in an ancient, spacious football stadium… or in some other city.

On the bright side, in our alternate reality, the Padres end up with a pretty good player at 10. But that’s a story for another week. In the meantime, if you like to indulge in the occasional game of “what if,” head on over and read the article.

Tuesday Links (24 Aug 10)

by Geoff Young on Aug 24, 2010 (3) Comments

Yadda, yadda, yadda…

That was a lotta yadda…

Mailbag: Historically Speaking, How Good Are the 2010 Padres at Run Prevention?

by Geoff Young on Aug 24, 2010 (6) Comments

Here’s a fun one from Nathan K. in Chicago, who writes:

This Padres team is allowing very few runs. I believe as of the 119th game, only 401. It is my understanding that the record in a 162 game season is 472 by the 1968 Cardinals, which featured none other than Bob Gibson, and is referred to by baseball historians as “the year of the pitcher.” It is also my understanding that the following year MLB lowered the mound from 15″ (sometimes more) to the 10″ today. This of course contributed to an immediate surge in hitting prowess.

Now, the Padres are not on pace to break that record, and their upcoming schedule may prohibit any sort of improvement, but I would love to know what the MLB record is for allowed runs after 1969. Moreover, I would like to know where this Padres team fits in historically with runs allowed stats. I believe that the fact that they are even competing with the 1968 Cardinals staff speaks for itself, but more info would be great.

Thanks for the question, Nathan. Let’s see what we can find on this. Continue reading ›

Friday Links (20 Aug 10)

by Geoff Young on Aug 20, 2010 (8) Comments

I tried to limit myself to a reasonable number of links this week. When that failed, I contemplated the nature of the word “reasonable” and decided it didn’t suit our purposes… Continue reading ›

Mailbag: What’s Wrong with Adrian, and How Good Are This Year’s Padres?

by Geoff Young on Aug 19, 2010 (15) Comments

I’ve been noticing some new names in the comments, which is fantastic. Glad you found us, and welcome.

Today’s mailbag features questions from two first-time commenters. First up, Elliott P. writes:

I would love it if you could shed some light on Adrian’s seeming lack of production. It seems as though his power, RBIs and slugging are way down in the past 30 days. Any thoughts?

Thoughts? Me? Yes, I may have a few. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: Dog Days and Showcases

by Geoff Young on Aug 18, 2010 (1) Comments

I’ve got a couple items to share with the class today.

One benefit of Ducksnorts’ inclusion in the SweetSpot network is that occasionally I am asked to contribute content to ESPN. Currently they are running a series called “The Dog Days of August” that examines “various teams in the hunt for a playoff spot to assess whether they have what it takes to survive the dog days of August and remain in contention come October.”

It’s kind of a cool little package. I’ve got a couple paragraphs in the entry on the Padres, as do Mark Simon of ESPN’s Stats and Info Blog and the good folks at FanGraphs.

My segment touches on Mat Latos and Kevin Correia. Those of us who have watched Latos all year know he’s good. But did you know just how good he’s been since May 1? Thanks to David Pinto’s handy Day by Day Database, we can find out easily enough. Through games of August 16, here are the top 5 ERAs in MLB since May 1 (minimum 15 starts):

Player             IP  ERA  K/9
Mat Latos       115.1 1.64 9.44
Tim Hudson      140.0 1.93 5.01
Adam Wainwright 138.1 1.95 8.33
Josh Johnson    127.2 2.04 8.60
Trevor Cahill   135.2 2.19 5.17

Neat, huh? And for those wondering, Latos’s success this year is not a product of Petco Park:

       IP  ERA   BA  OBP  SLG  K/9
Home 49.1 2.19 .201 .263 .296 7.84
Road 86.1 2.40 .187 .249 .311 9.49

Our only legitimate gripe, then, is that we haven’t gotten to see him in person as much as folks in other parts of the country have. Eh, I don’t mind.

* * *

My other article appears at Hardball Times and recaps the 2010 Aflac All-American Baseball Classic, which took place at Petco Park on Sunday, August 15. There isn’t any Padres relevance… at least not yet. Some years from now, that may change. After all, alumni of the annual showcase include current big leaguers Justin Upton and Jason Heyward.

Enjoy…